Thanks Ken! I think the only way for lumber and plywood to come down is to stop buying it period! If customers would hold off for a month and I’m talking a lot of customers it would happen. Of course if you absolutely had to buy it that’s different, but just hold off people. It’s all a game! From Northwestern Vermont
@@robertcrawford4555 Builders already had contracts signed that had to be performed. The cost of small projects aren't high enough to make people not do them. I was fortunate to not need much lumber to finish a couple remodels I am doing this year. Paying an extra 2k for materials is nothing when the houses are selling for 30k more than expected. Again, there were no actual shortages of any lumber anybody needed to build or remodel. Why didn't the price of drywall skyrocker? Because drywall isn't traded on the futures market.
Like your positive outlook Ken. One thing worth mentioning. Lumber yards don't like loosing money. Most sell lumber prices are based on the replacement cost. So even if wholesale prices drop, most will still sell their inventory at cost plus profit. So the low prices are not immediate but on the horizon.
Ok - am I the only who is having a hard time wrapping my brain around Ken being a day trader? That’s the absolute LAST thing I would have guessed from someone who now earns their living with good honest work and their hands! 😮
Haha I remember 20 years ago in my neck of the world contractors and independent tradesmen were easily persuaded to "have a crack at" day-trading futures. Show them some charts and apparent "methods" that could be thought of as tools and many thought it was a lifeline to riches.
@@DiscoFang My Dad actually quit his job in Retail back in 1970 to do Commodities futures trading. He lasted about 4 months before he went back to Retail management.
I’ve never followed the futures market, but your analysis does make sense. It will be interesting to see the impact of hurricanes and other disasters as this year progresses.
The lumber prices will go down when the housing market drops. The lumber company and other are watching the housing markets. People buying pre owned houses or building their new houses. The problem is eventually the money will dry up and demand will slow . When demand slows the wood companies get swamped with product which will lead to a decrease in prices. So if people would just stop buying lumber for a few months the prices will come down.
That sheet of plywood is now a UA-cam collectible! Whatever garage it ends up going into, the owner can sell tickets to show it off "As featured on Kens Karpentry UA-cam Episode on July 3, 2021!" You should autograph it and make sure the graph is visible after installation.
Hey Ken, great information. From research that I have seen plywood is staying high because of the lack of resin for the glue that is used in the lamination process.
We put the brakes on a new double wide and 40 x 60 metal shop project. Crazy thing is that t-slot aluminum prices are the same as they were 6 months ago, but all other metal prices are 50% more now. A large metal fabricator in my town told me that he gets prices on metal and they're only good until close of business that day.
Ken, as always, Your analysis is insightful. Im in BC Canada, where a lot of the lumber/ply is manufactured. Our prices are on par with US prices (futures have no borders) I thought maybe the timber industry was benefiting, but it’s not. The major corps like West Fraser, Weyerhaeuser and the like are the ones with the greed. So if we want to offset our lumber costs, one way is to trade either futures and or stocks in the lumber corps.
Love to see 2 x 4 is go below six dollars for an 8 foot around here As per plywood it’s hurricane season down south so that will stay high like you said probably not till October that’s kind of tough for a little guy to do any projects around here thanks for the info though👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻
The hoist must be a back saver and glass breaker too oops! Yes "Down" lets pray for that and I love the "SpiderKnots" on your presentation board Sir Ken Again valuable information thank you😆🤘🇺🇸👍🖐
I looked at an old quote for deck materials (2018). A pressure-treated 2x6x8 was $4.47. The sameboard from the same source is currently $11.98. Almost three times more.
I hope you're right Ken. A little off subject, the Local Ford garage has had no more than 3 or 4 trucks for some time. Actually their whole lot is pretty bare. They got a 2021 dually in with diesel, 5th wheel mount, all the equipment for a work truck. Their was a swarm of potential buyers around it as expected. I had to see it myself. Sticker, $119,000 !!! The excitement went away real quick. Stopped on the way home and washed my truck. It needs to last a long time.
Very informative and true. They jump on what the people’s needs are cash in and like you said more on to the next demand for the next go a round. Happy 4th be safe
Looking at the dates on that board it seems as if it also follows supply / demand for building season. IOW, prices falling off when construction falls off for half the USA. Based on that, the plywood price might bottom out around December when demand falls to nil.... and rises again when the snow melts. This is basically the same pattern as gasoline where it peaks for summer travel and falls in winter.
As an old 84 lumber guy, i see pulp and flake timber getting our OSB down by September. Timber should be back to normal for dimensional lumber (2X material) by late August. As far as engineered product (now and into the future of building) will depend on the latter.
today at Chicago land HD 2x4 studs @ $7.82 last month about buc more. Still to high. I heard plywood will remain high due to the shortages of the glues/resins needed in the manufacturing process. hang in there boys
It takes a while for the decreases to show up at retail but I think, all along the supply chain, the participants will look to preserve the price increases as much as possible, so, I would be surprised to see a 2x4 stud go back to the $3.50 range. Here in Virginia, I saw a 2x4 go as high as over $8. Couple of days later it was down to about $7.50. As long as interest rates are this low, cheap money will fuel the new housing and renovation markets, putting pressure on supply. I was recently standing in line at an auto parts store in Sarasota FL and two locals were remarking how the "northerners" are moving down to Florida and paying crazy prices for houses and both agreed a correction (my word, they used different terminology) was coming. In the end, there is some wisdom there. If the pendulum swings too far in one direction, it will ultimately swing the other way. Its just a matter of time.
At least in my area we are starting to see a slight change in OSB. It had peaked at around $80 but last weekend it was down to $68. Still a ways to go and the shelves are totally full at the Home Depot. Did not see hardly anyone buying.
Im off work this week. And decided to do a little project. Add on to my porch. Went to a local building supply store. I got 16 2/4/8. 16 2/6/8 34 2/2/8 and a box of 3 inch screws. $580 dollars.
I know here in my area Washington, items needed to build homes have become harder to receive on time. The supply chains have lots of problems. Even workers are in short supply.
In Ohio every Big Box store has been filled to the ceiling with lumber for the last few months. The 12 Menards in my area have had 35,000 sheets of 7/16 osb, 25,000 sheets of 1/2 osb, and 90,000 construction 2 X 4s. The 12 Menards that came up in the Indianapolis area had even more.
My data supplier gives me 1400 levels of bid and ask data. You are right though -- price moves from buyers to sellers, and vice versa. You can see it in the depth. The big players create the imbalances in the bid vs ask ratio -- and volume comes in to do the rest (take it from price A to B). Their "push" is essentially their target / exit -- which is in before their entry. They push price down with an offer imbalance, for example, then buy their own push down -- and exit where they created the imbalance. This is what moves the market yet is never talked about.
I wondered how you knew to buy a lot of lumber when you did. I trade stocks all the time based on technicals and used to buy lumber and plywood on the markets as well, for my dad's company. Was also involved in construction. I remembered thinking that it was unusual that you knew to buy a lot of lumber when you did. Most wouldn't have known to do that. It all makes sense now that you said you used to do trading. I wasn't very good when I first started buying lumber and plywood but eventually got so good that, quite a few times, the company I bought from, wanted to buy the lumber back from me cause I bought it so low and in volume. Kinda funny now that I think about it.
I agree with you. Problem is a lot of people don’t have the WILL power to hold off on those improvement projects and the big boys know it. Sure if the roof is leaking it needs fixed that’s not a luxury improvement
What about the guy who has to make a living? You know, pay mortgage , car taxes, and such oh yah, food. They can't hold off long enough. Big business wants to hurt the government, remember tax raise is in their future. They have sold us this garbage of supply and demand because they control supply. They don't hide it anymore , OPEC meets twice a year and decides how much they will produce so they keep the prices they need to by another mansion. In 1972 when a local news outlet flew a helicopter out over the entrance to the Delaware river and asked the question ," What are these 15 oil tankers doing anchored out here?", the gas shortages suddenly and quietly disappeared. That can't happen now because they closed all of the refineries here and move it all to Texas , Louisiana, Alabama. We're the largest EXPORTER of gas and diesel in the world. How much was that gallon of gas yesterday, $3.10 a gal.?
@@rosscollins2910 that's my standpoint. I'm in a place I can afford and have been waiting to redo my roof. Should have pulled the trigger last Fall but it seemed ridiculous to buy OSB at triple 20$ more than it's standard selling price. The leak is causing issues, but if the prices ever stabilize I'll be able to repair that too at a fraction of my current materials list cost. This fall happening either way when work calms down. Will see, fingers crossed.
A friend saw a 30% drop in p.t. wood prices for a deck he started when he went to buy at a HD store in North Texas from the previous days price. Pretty fast drop.
It'll never go back all the way to where it was. In the sevnties they did it with coffee and sugar. It went way up and never came all the way back down, gas, real estate same thing and now they are printing money 24/7. I loved the ending.
Probably because he saw first hand how it's all manipulated at the top. How is after hours trading even legal? Because, as an average trader, they (The Big Boys) can steal all your money overnight and there is nothing you can do but watch it all disappear... It's a big club, and we aren't allowed to join, just pay to play. I know many people that tried day trading and lost it all from just that one thing. They didn't understand the fundamentals and didn't have the option for stop loss in trades. Try a one year "paper trade" with $100,000 of investing power and you will see how it works pretty quickly. I did it with my brother as a game. I made $25,000 on paper, but I was watching the market every day all day. You have to know when to hold and when to fold or they will rape you, usually during after hours when you can't trade. Tons of research on markets and tech companies required. Carpentry is way more fun and usually a bit more profitable in the short run, and if you are good at it, an honest way to move everybody forward, instead of just greedy "profit" motives.
Thanks for the info Ken! I'm guessing that retail prices are 4-8 weeks behind the market 'cause a 2x4x8 just went to $7.93 locally here in Texas... still not low enough for me to buy yet.
I have talked with some of our bankers and contractors and they have been telling me that they have seen a big pullback in new houses contracts and home loans and the remodel work is falling way off!!!!! It’s probably going down to the pre Covid price!!!
I believe that the larger contractor will invest in their own sawmills and production. The Lumber company's made a huge mistake ripping off the country and the damage that they have done to this industry. RIP George Pacific and the other three big boys
In May it had a Head & Shoulders pattern, and June 2nd it had a failed double top, and left all the little guys up there. Looks like it is going to support of Jan. 690 numbers. Looks like they are rotating into OIL, expecting it to hit 100 a barrel. I rotated into there two weeks ago.
@@kenskarpentry I'm still trading but not like the old days of the internet bubble. The IPO market is on fire, that is a bad Omen. Looking for property in S.D. to build a Barndominium. To bad you guys are so far away. Love what you do Ken. Stay healthy, stay back from those ladder hoists. LOL
Thanks Ken... Hopefully plywood & OSD will follow the anticipated trends of lumber prices going down in costs. The law of supply & demand should dictate this process, however GREED is harder to predict with respect to the Wall Street wolves... Bill on the Hill... :~)
as a fella who's a contractor and done some day trading I'm with you on this. I will say.....I think were talking Fundamentals driving the price action now.
All these people are building homes with lumber at high prices which makes the price of the house much more than it was. Will these houses be worth 2 times as much in a year or 2. To me its going to be like the housing bubble in the early 2000s when house prices were 2 or 3 times the value. I have a feeling a lot of people building now are going to get the shaft if they sell in a few years.
Hey good morning..not so fast my friend dropping. 50 cents is not my idea of come back it's a way to get you in the store too buy other things screws trim ECT...the market will be like this for a long haul you need to turn that plywood sheet long ways because it will be a slow recovery ..the box stores did the same thing you did ..the order in advance and stock pile it or leavening it at the mill on hold ...there not going to take a lost I see maybe it coming down late fall a little bit but staying high till after JANUARY my opinion only ..but great video buddy I really enjoy them ...remodeling is Crazy and building homes is Crazy business customers don't really care about price they drop that to a bank over 30 years morg...it's figures out too be peanuts for what you want ...you can could even add new corvette to the Morg.and not notice it over 30 years and if your old retired how do we care who pays the loan off lol lol they can still sell the vet for profit and the house .lol 😎🏖😎
Lumber futures differ from manufactured building products such as plywood, OSB, TJI, LVL’s, etc since the market is still catching up from the Texas Freeze.
I have been waiting to replace the deck of my utility trailer for over a year. Just checked a minute ago and the price is STILL $23.99 for @ home depot. This is INSANITY!!!!!!
What happened is it was thought we could not live without lumber. Check the ads on You Tube and Facebook! There is steel steel steel for everything! And most of us trying to build are mad and they have lost our business!
Can we at least get 2 by 4s for $4, still high, but Doable! 2 by 4s use to be like $3, infact anything over $3.25 is pretty messed up! And they are like $8!
That's the most expensive scratch pad I've ever seen!
Haha
That’s an attention getter and it worked.
😂
I wonder if it would have been cheaper to just buy a dry erase board... that looks like a 70$ board
I’m sure he’s going to use that board latter considering what it cost.
Thanks Ken! I think the only way for lumber and plywood to come down is to stop buying it period! If customers would hold off for a month and I’m talking a lot of customers it would happen. Of course if you absolutely had to buy it that’s different, but just hold off people. It’s all a game!
From Northwestern Vermont
I totally agree .Too bad people wouldn’t hold off but they just have to have it now.
@@robertcrawford4555 Builders already had contracts signed that had to be performed. The cost of small projects aren't high enough to make people not do them. I was fortunate to not need much lumber to finish a couple remodels I am doing this year. Paying an extra 2k for materials is nothing when the houses are selling for 30k more than expected. Again, there were no actual shortages of any lumber anybody needed to build or remodel. Why didn't the price of drywall skyrocker? Because drywall isn't traded on the futures market.
Ken you have really kept us in the loop with the supply and pricing and I appreciate your diligence. Very Insightful TY
Like your positive outlook Ken. One thing worth mentioning. Lumber yards don't like loosing money. Most sell lumber prices are based on the replacement cost. So even if wholesale prices drop, most will still sell their inventory at cost plus profit. So the low prices are not immediate but on the horizon.
Ok - am I the only who is having a hard time wrapping my brain around Ken being a day trader? That’s the absolute LAST thing I would have guessed from someone who now earns their living with good honest work and their hands!
😮
I know farmers who invest in day trading.
Haha I remember 20 years ago in my neck of the world contractors and independent tradesmen were easily persuaded to "have a crack at" day-trading futures. Show them some charts and apparent "methods" that could be thought of as tools and many thought it was a lifeline to riches.
@@DiscoFang My Dad actually quit his job in Retail back in 1970 to do Commodities futures trading. He lasted about 4 months before he went back to Retail management.
Why? People are not one-dimensional.
Your honesty and integrity is so inspirational. Thank you for your videos.
I appreciate you saying "I think " even though you have been dead nuts through the entire cycle. Been such a benefit to your customers
Thanks
Ken, your combination of market analysis and practical experience of the lumber market is unique on UA-cam. Thank you!
Thanks
I’ve never followed the futures market, but your analysis does make sense. It will be interesting to see the impact of hurricanes and other disasters as this year progresses.
Thanks
Your analysis of the lumber market really helps me out for planning my future projects. Thank you for your insight.
These videos are so helpful. I want to build in a year or two but I’m hoping the lumber prices go down some…
Thanks
The lumber prices will go down when the housing market drops. The lumber company and other are watching the housing markets. People buying pre owned houses or building their new houses. The problem is eventually the money will dry up and demand will slow . When demand slows the wood companies get swamped with product which will lead to a decrease in prices.
So if people would just stop buying lumber for a few months the prices will come down.
That sheet of plywood is now a UA-cam collectible! Whatever garage it ends up going into, the owner can sell tickets to show it off "As featured on Kens Karpentry UA-cam Episode on July 3, 2021!" You should autograph it and make sure the graph is visible after installation.
Haha
Ken, below the graph you should add the link to this video. The next owner of that plywood can then amaze their friends and relatives.
@@robjohnston5292 These are all good ideas! Top coat it with something that won't yellow or darken the wood (no ideas on that).
Ken..Thank you for your insight!! Thank you again for the fun crashes at the end just for fun..Keep up the good work!!
Thanks
It will be interesting to see what next year brings. I’m waiting on building a deck.
Thank you for your insight and fun with the ladder hoist
Thanks
Hey Ken, great information. From research that I have seen plywood is staying high because of the lack of resin for the glue that is used in the lamination process.
Thanks
Thanks for the update, prices are crazy in Georgia as well. Can't count how many jobs I have on hold until prices get back down to a "normal" level.
Thanks
I hope wood keeps descending, I'm just an amatuer woodworker and I can't wait to get a couple more projects lined up. Thanks Ken.
Thanks for watching
Very informative, as always! Thanks Ken!💹🧮🪵
Thanks
pretty good analogy Ken I think you are on to something.. these are great shows very informative..
Thanks
Outtake failures are the best. Had a good laugh 😅 thanks Ken.
Almost everyone I know have put off any big projects until next year, or until prices fall.
I just wanna build a plywood closet in my basement but not at $1k
We put the brakes on a new double wide and 40 x 60 metal shop project. Crazy thing is that t-slot aluminum prices are the same as they were 6 months ago, but all other metal prices are 50% more now. A large metal fabricator in my town told me that he gets prices on metal and they're only good until close of business that day.
I am on hold as well
I was waiting since july 2020. and i will continue to wait
For some things, such as decks, there are plenty of alternatives that previously were not as attractive simply because wood was cheaper.
I never imagined I would learn something about technical analysis from you Mr Ken !
Lumber in Michigan hasn't dropped a penny yet. I will not buy a single stick at these prices.
I agree. I will wait and do other projects until it comes down.
Still going UP here.
idaho either.
Thanks for your insight! This is a good sign and hopefully it continues to come down.
You be fun to see you go up the ladder hoist and jump into the pool in slo-mo. Happy 4th. 🇺🇸
Haha nope
Was at Lowes July 1,2021 in Baltimore... Pyles of lumber and drywall... All racks full to the top...
Same in Seekonk Massachusetts !
Ohio is the same way. I put every project on hold. I'm ripping a deck out and putting in concrete. It's almost the same price now.
Ken, as always, Your analysis is insightful. Im in BC Canada, where a lot of the lumber/ply is manufactured. Our prices are on par with US prices (futures have no borders)
I thought maybe the timber industry was benefiting, but it’s not. The major corps like West Fraser, Weyerhaeuser and the like are the ones with the greed.
So if we want to offset our lumber costs, one way is to trade either futures and or stocks in the lumber corps.
Love to see 2 x 4 is go below six dollars for an 8 foot around here
As per plywood it’s hurricane season down south so that will stay high like you said probably not till October that’s kind of tough for a little guy to do any projects around here thanks for the info though👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻
The hoist must be a back saver and glass breaker too oops! Yes "Down" lets pray for that and I love the "SpiderKnots" on your presentation board Sir Ken Again valuable information thank you😆🤘🇺🇸👍🖐
I looked at an old quote for deck materials (2018). A pressure-treated 2x6x8 was $4.47. The sameboard from the same source is currently $11.98. Almost three times more.
Very nice Ken very nice presentation. great insight.
Thanks
Looks, brawn and brains?!? Ken's got it all!😎
Haha
I hope you're right Ken. A little off subject, the Local Ford garage has had no more than 3 or 4 trucks for some time. Actually their whole lot is pretty bare. They got a 2021 dually in with diesel, 5th wheel mount, all the equipment for a work truck. Their was a swarm of potential buyers around it as expected. I had to see it myself. Sticker, $119,000 !!! The excitement went away real quick. Stopped on the way home and washed my truck. It needs to last a long time.
Wow
I appreciate the insight yo the futures market. And, sir , you are a phool with that lift. LMAO.
Haha
Invest in pvc plastics now!! Great video ken.
Bloopers always funny
Very informative and true. They jump on what the people’s needs are cash in and like you said more on to the next demand for the next go a round. Happy 4th be safe
Thanks you too
That glass came crashing down like lumber futures!
Thank you sir.
T
Stop Buying Plywood, go to the Saw Mills and buy 1 by 12s, and use that for your exterior walls!
Looking at the dates on that board it seems as if it also follows supply / demand for building season. IOW, prices falling off when construction falls off for half the USA. Based on that, the plywood price might bottom out around December when demand falls to nil.... and rises again when the snow melts. This is basically the same pattern as gasoline where it peaks for summer travel and falls in winter.
As an old 84 lumber guy, i see pulp and flake timber getting our OSB down by September. Timber should be back to normal for dimensional lumber (2X material) by late August. As far as engineered product (now and into the future of building) will depend on the latter.
Thanks
today at Chicago land HD 2x4 studs @ $7.82 last month about buc more. Still to high. I heard plywood will remain high due to the shortages of the glues/resins needed in the manufacturing process. hang in there boys
Love the bloopers.
Thanks
i hop your right . just to expensive to do any thing right now.
It takes a while for the decreases to show up at retail but I think, all along the supply chain, the participants will look to preserve the price increases as much as possible, so, I would be surprised to see a 2x4 stud go back to the $3.50 range. Here in Virginia, I saw a 2x4 go as high as over $8. Couple of days later it was down to about $7.50. As long as interest rates are this low, cheap money will fuel the new housing and renovation markets, putting pressure on supply. I was recently standing in line at an auto parts store in Sarasota FL and two locals were remarking how the "northerners" are moving down to Florida and paying crazy prices for houses and both agreed a correction (my word, they used different terminology) was coming. In the end, there is some wisdom there. If the pendulum swings too far in one direction, it will ultimately swing the other way. Its just a matter of time.
Good! maybe next year i can build my deck i was waiting to build since 2020
Thumbs up to those folks who planned ahead and built before this manufactured crisis.
what are you thinking.??? with the ladder hoist
Haha not sure
Know when to hold 'em. Know when to fold 'em.
At least in my area we are starting to see a slight change in OSB. It had peaked at around $80 but last weekend it was down to $68. Still a ways to go and the shelves are totally full at the Home Depot. Did not see hardly anyone buying.
Im off work this week. And decided to do a little project. Add on to my porch. Went to a local building supply store. I got 16 2/4/8. 16 2/6/8 34 2/2/8 and a box of 3 inch screws. $580 dollars.
I know here in my area Washington, items needed to build homes have become harder to receive on time. The supply chains have lots of problems. Even workers are in short supply.
In Ohio every Big Box store has been filled to the ceiling with lumber for the last few months. The 12 Menards in my area have had 35,000 sheets of 7/16 osb, 25,000 sheets of 1/2 osb, and 90,000 construction 2 X 4s. The 12 Menards that came up in the Indianapolis area had even more.
Good vid. In todays trading LVL 1 and LVL 2 is opposite. LVL 2 shows all the orders.
My data supplier gives me 1400 levels of bid and ask data. You are right though -- price moves from buyers to sellers, and vice versa. You can see it in the depth. The big players create the imbalances in the bid vs ask ratio -- and volume comes in to do the rest (take it from price A to B). Their "push" is essentially their target / exit -- which is in before their entry. They push price down with an offer imbalance, for example, then buy their own push down -- and exit where they created the imbalance. This is what moves the market yet is never talked about.
Thanks for the input
I wondered how you knew to buy a lot of lumber when you did. I trade stocks all the time based on technicals and used to buy lumber and plywood on the markets as well, for my dad's company. Was also involved in construction. I remembered thinking that it was unusual that you knew to buy a lot of lumber when you did. Most wouldn't have known to do that. It all makes sense now that you said you used to do trading.
I wasn't very good when I first started buying lumber and plywood but eventually got so good that, quite a few times, the company I bought from, wanted to buy the lumber back from me cause I bought it so low and in volume. Kinda funny now that I think about it.
Unfortunately, this is how most people see it. I see it as the Consumer as the "Big Boys." If we do not buy they would not exist. We have the Power.
I agree with you. Problem is a lot of people don’t have the WILL power to hold off on those improvement projects and the big boys know it.
Sure if the roof is leaking it needs fixed that’s not a luxury improvement
What about the guy who has to make a living? You know, pay mortgage , car taxes, and such oh yah, food. They can't hold off long enough. Big business wants to hurt the government, remember tax raise is in their future. They have sold us this garbage of supply and demand because they control supply. They don't hide it anymore , OPEC meets twice a year and decides how much they will produce so they keep the prices they need to by another mansion. In 1972 when a local news outlet flew a helicopter out over the entrance to the Delaware river and asked the question ," What are these 15 oil tankers doing anchored out here?", the gas shortages suddenly and quietly disappeared. That can't happen now because they closed all of the refineries here and move it all to Texas , Louisiana, Alabama. We're the largest EXPORTER of gas and diesel in the world. How much was that gallon of gas yesterday, $3.10 a gal.?
@@rosscollins2910 that's my standpoint. I'm in a place I can afford and have been waiting to redo my roof. Should have pulled the trigger last Fall but it seemed ridiculous to buy OSB at triple 20$ more than it's standard selling price. The leak is causing issues, but if the prices ever stabilize I'll be able to repair that too at a fraction of my current materials list cost. This fall happening either way when work calms down. Will see, fingers crossed.
@@Dan-qx3nh Did you see a similar jump in shingle prices? I assumed shingles were off the scale. We need a new roof also.
The same thing happened with oil and gas prices in 2008-2009....until it finally came back down
A friend saw a 30% drop in p.t. wood prices for a deck he started when he went to buy at a HD store in North Texas from the previous days price.
Pretty fast drop.
It'll never go back all the way to where it was. In the sevnties they did it with coffee and sugar. It went way up and never came all the way back down, gas, real estate same thing and now they are printing money 24/7.
I loved the ending.
it's a couple buck for a bag of sugar
Amazing content. Would love to hear how/why you transitioned from stocks to construction. Have a great Independence Day weekend.
Same here!! Interesting story!
Never assume, right! Who'd a thunk it!!
Probably because he saw first hand how it's all manipulated at the top. How is after hours trading even legal? Because, as an average trader, they (The Big Boys) can steal all your money overnight and there is nothing you can do but watch it all disappear... It's a big club, and we aren't allowed to join, just pay to play. I know many people that tried day trading and lost it all from just that one thing. They didn't understand the fundamentals and didn't have the option for stop loss in trades.
Try a one year "paper trade" with $100,000 of investing power and you will see how it works pretty quickly. I did it with my brother as a game. I made $25,000 on paper, but I was watching the market every day all day. You have to know when to hold and when to fold or they will rape you, usually during after hours when you can't trade. Tons of research on markets and tech companies required. Carpentry is way more fun and usually a bit more profitable in the short run, and if you are good at it, an honest way to move everybody forward, instead of just greedy "profit" motives.
I see a whole family of owls in that plywood. LOL Happy 4th, Ken :)
Haha same to you
Thanks for the info Ken! I'm guessing that retail prices are 4-8 weeks behind the market 'cause a 2x4x8 just went to $7.93 locally here in Texas... still not low enough for me to buy yet.
I have talked with some of our bankers and contractors and they have been telling me that they have seen a big pullback in new houses contracts and home loans and the remodel work is falling way off!!!!! It’s probably going down to the pre Covid price!!!
That's cheap! Here a 2x4x8' been stuck at $8.89 for the past three weeks.
I believe that the larger contractor will invest in their own sawmills and production. The Lumber company's made a huge mistake ripping off the country and the damage that they have done to this industry. RIP George Pacific and the other three big boys
Don't know trading, but do know my pocket book. I'm holding off projects until sanity prevails.
nm wire went from $160 to $113 for a 250' roll of 12-2. While not lumber, definitely part of construction and seeing a change like that is remarkable.
where at? I just checked and still 160
Amazing of your background. I believe it has to go down, the big question is how much? Fuel for transportation is up and a lack of drivers.
In May it had a Head & Shoulders pattern, and June 2nd it had a failed double top, and left all the little guys up there. Looks like it is going to support of Jan. 690 numbers. Looks like they are rotating into OIL, expecting it to hit 100 a barrel. I rotated into there two weeks ago.
Wow see. I had forgotten a lot of those patterns
@@kenskarpentry I'm still trading but not like the old days of the internet bubble. The IPO market is on fire, that is a bad Omen. Looking for property in S.D. to build a Barndominium. To bad you guys are so far away. Love what you do Ken. Stay healthy, stay back from those ladder hoists. LOL
I got 46 sheets of premium 3/4" T&G subfloor in July of 2019 for 1 cent each at HD. Close out.
I am the Plywood King!! I still have 15 sheets left.
Wow
Good info. Thanks!
Thanks for watching
Looks like a guy got some sun, Ken.
Yup
Thanks!
Thanks Ken... Hopefully plywood & OSD will follow the anticipated trends of lumber prices going down in costs. The law of supply & demand should dictate this process, however GREED is harder to predict with respect to the Wall Street wolves...
Bill on the Hill... :~)
What does Canada have to do with lumber prices? I see Canfor products and not much from Boise etc. Do tariffs have anything to do with it?
I don't know anything about trading, but I do know when something is out-of-control expensive! Listening to you explain this is very interesting.
Thanks
as a fella who's a contractor and done some day trading I'm with you on this.
I will say.....I think were talking Fundamentals driving the price action now.
All these people are building homes with lumber at high prices which makes the price of the house much more than it was. Will these houses be worth 2 times as much in a year or 2. To me its going to be like the housing bubble in the early 2000s when house prices were 2 or 3 times the value. I have a feeling a lot of people building now are going to get the shaft if they sell in a few years.
I quit buying lumber for all my projects six months ago. Spending time on my boat instead.
Nice
Nice ending with a couple CRASHES! Cheers
Thanks
Hey good morning..not so fast my friend dropping. 50 cents is not my idea of come back it's a way to get you in the store too buy other things screws trim ECT...the market will be like this for a long haul you need to turn that plywood sheet long ways because it will be a slow recovery ..the box stores did the same thing you did ..the order in advance and stock pile it or leavening it at the mill on hold ...there not going to take a lost I see maybe it coming down late fall a little bit but staying high till after JANUARY my opinion only ..but great video buddy I really enjoy them ...remodeling is Crazy and building homes is Crazy business customers don't really care about price they drop that to a bank over 30 years morg...it's figures out too be peanuts for what you want ...you can could even add new corvette to the Morg.and not notice it over 30 years and if your old retired how do we care who pays the loan off lol lol they can still sell the vet for profit and the house .lol 😎🏖😎
Damn the bad luck!
Lumber futures differ from manufactured building products such as plywood, OSB, TJI, LVL’s, etc since the market is still catching up from the Texas Freeze.
I have been waiting to replace the deck of my utility trailer for over a year. Just checked a minute ago and the price is STILL $23.99 for @ home depot. This is INSANITY!!!!!!
I trade and you gave a great general description of how it works!😀👍🏼
Thanks
I like a good garage.
Thanks
Ken,
Excellent market analysis! BTW, that is one expensive piece of graph 'paper'. Better recycle it on a garage project!
Thanks. I’ll use it somewhere
What happened is it was thought we could not live without lumber. Check the ads on You Tube and Facebook! There is steel steel steel for everything! And most of us trying to build are mad and they have lost our business!
Makes very good sense 🐱
Hope your right Ken.
I thought you were going to do the High Dive for us Ken :)
Haha
Steel is still very high. Dumpsters are 35% more than they were before covid. I haven't seen lumber fall more than a few pennies in kansas.
Ken I think with Hurricane season plywood demand will be high even though prices are high.
Ken when I first saw those numbers on the board I thought that was the price you were trying to sell it for lol
Haha sounds good to me
when 3/4 inch and 1/2 inch are at the retail cost about $74 per sheet... well they can just get screwed
Last night, 3/4" CDX at Home Depot in the San Francisco area was $96. 2x4x8 DF is down .30 from last week.
Like your theory fellow lefty !
Haha thanks
Good to hear . i hope gas dose the same thing.
I’d be surprised to see prices as low as 2019
Can we at least get 2 by 4s for $4, still high, but Doable! 2 by 4s use to be like $3, infact anything over $3.25 is pretty messed up! And they are like $8!
@@randyross5630 They were $2 apiece for years!
I think we have a good shot at the summer 2018 prices (low $500's for thousand) but the mid 300's we had in 2019 is doubtful.
Those big boys need to stay out of the toilet paper trading futures.
Haha