I just switched up my Roth IRA to 50% SCHD, 25% SCHX, 25% SCHG, and my Roth 401k is 70% vanguard S&P 500 index, 20% vanguard growth index, and 10% vanguard international index. Seeking best possible ways to grow $350k into $1m+ before retirement, I'm 55.
The issue is most people have the “I want to do it myself mentality” but not equipped enough for a crash, so they get burnt, no offense intended. Generally speaking, investment advisors are ideal reps for investing, and at first-hand encounter since the covid-19 outbreak, my portfolio has yielded over 300%, summing up nearly 7-figure as of today.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.
I have been investing for almost thirty years and to you young folks....THIS is the way to do it. Start investing NOW in these types of ETFs. They are safe and they WILL double every 7ish years. Time and interest are your greatest ally.
I saw a Warren Buffett video where he mentioned that if you had put $10,000.00 in the S & P 500 in 1945 you would be a billionaire now. By the numbers Buffett is right. But like a lot of things Buffett is right about there were problems with it. Not that many people had $10, 000.00 in 1945, but my dad did mention that some returning soldiers, sailors, and marines did have that amount in back pay considering that they could not spend their pay while on shipboard or dodging Japanese bullets on various islands. The average serviceman in 1945 had a grade school education and had the vaguest notion of investments. Some did pay off their parent's house in the Los Angles area, which you could then, but don't try this now with $10,000.00. Like you said in your video the S & P did not exist as a market category until 1957. The first S & P fund did not start until 1975 with Vanguard which was laughed out of the room by my finance professors while I was a business major at the time. I ignored my finance professors, thankfully, and did invest some in the S & P and am planning to retire somewhat well as you might suspect. I am also planning to set up trusts for my four grandchildren using the S & P so that their retirements will be taken care of when they are my age. I try to explain investments to them now, they are in their 20s, and succeed in putting them to sleep. I suspect they will have more fond memories of me when they are my age. Disagree? Let me know.
I'm reading your comment and smiling, I am in my mid 20's and I am trying to raise funds and start investing early in the S&P, I bought my first IPO shares a few years ago around 19 years old, knowing a little more now, I wouldn't have done that.
Hello from Greece, I am buying $2000 per year of CSPX (That's the European analog of VOO, it's in dollars), for life, no matter what, no more no less. Will tell my son to do the same. Just $6 per day will be 100,000s down the generation wealth line. The trick is to have the diacipline to not spend it, and to just pretend the money is not there. Leaving for your grandchildren is amazing, if we were neighbors I would be great to have beers with you. But they must be taught the concept, so they continue the practice down the line. It's like "teach a man to fish is better than give them a fish". I also worry about it with my son, because he is 7 now and my biggest fear is I might die before explaining what to do.
10k was big amount of money in 1945 but being a billionnaire now is also a big amount of money. If you invest a large fraction of your income, in 20-25y the value will be large for your lifestyle.
Yeah, $10K today would be about $170,000 adjusted for inflation. And this was $10,000 contributed every year thereafter? I'm getting a future value of $138.7 million using a 74 year timeframe, annual return of 10.15%, and $10K contributed every year. Increasing your $10K contribution every year by 3% would get you to $190.4 million. $72,100 invested every year for 74 years @ 10.15% return gets you to the billion.
Literally the three ETFs I'm investing in. VOO, SCHD, QQQM. I'M CURRENTLY INVESTING $100 EQUALLY INTO EACH OF THOSE EVERY SINGLE WEAK FOR 1200 A MONTH INVESTMENT...😎
I have consistently felt a strong urge to pursue wisdom and authority to make a positive impact on humanity. I've been actively searching for ways to gain influence and expand my understanding of the human race and uncover knowledge that isn't accessible to everyone. My ultimate aspiration is to achieve the enlightenment that has been handed down to us by our ancestors!
I know exactly what you mean. I used to feel that way until I met 'Elite Benjamin Alford'. He introduced me to an organization that helped me find my purpose and passion in life. I can't say too much about it.
@@garyakins8449 I don't see why not. You can reach out to him by searching him online with "Elite Benjamin Alford" and see if he's willing to guide you through.
Yes! In fact I’m trying to invest a bunch of money I was to conservative with during Covid. Hope I’m right about investing it over the next 6-12 months.
I started investing in August 2021 and even with the full hit of 2022 still my returns are positive nearly 5%. The consistency of the dca method is always the key.
Years ago, I decided to follow the advice of the 3 finance gurus: Buffett, Bogle and Lynch. Invest in American business steadily over time using low fee index funds. 25 years later I'm sitting on 3/4 mil + (would have been more were it not for a couple loans through the years...but se la vie). The compounding really starts taking off after you hit 3 or 400k so it gets easier later in your career. For all of this not to work, you would have to believe in a total collapse of the US economy and our way of life which would really mean a world wide collapse of such epic proportions the last thing you would need to worry about is your investments anyway. Since I find that scenario improbable and highly unlikely, I will keep investing every 2 weeks until I retire later this year. ✌
I have my money in sp 500, SCHD, JEPI, and 30 individual stocks. mostly dividend paying companies as well as a few growth names like Tesla, google, Disney, sofi, Uber and then about 20% in crypto.
I AM gen X to the core. Buffett is my mentor and his advice is both timeless abd sound! During my lifetime, since 1972, this country and economy has almost always been in some sort of crisis. It is resilient. It rebounds! Sometimes it takes time.
Great info as always!! 😊 I have no delusions that I could ever “beat the market” for one year much less consistently “beat the market” over many years, so this safer approach is much more palatable to me personally! 😊
I retired from trucking in 2013. I went back to work in early '20 when the market dropped, and am still working today. I'm ploughing everything I can into the index while it's cheap. When the S&P gets back to 4800 I'll retire again. If/when it drops again after that, I'll go back to work and load up at another discount.
Love your videos sir. I'm a 23 year old from Kuwait and I just started my investing journey this year! My current portfolio is 70% VTI 20% VXUS 10% VUG.
I just tested this taking the close of the index in mid July and taking the average of the three years, with middle year stated. 1984 to 1991 gets you 2.27 times, 91 to 98 3.04, 98 to 05 1.00 times, 05 to 12 1.22 times, 12 to 19 1.9 times. No room for the next seven, so 15 to 22 gets you 2.03 times. I was hoping for a smoother ride that had been suggested. In fact, rather than doubling every seven years, you might end up the same or triple.
Professor, what do you think in also investing in Berkshire Hathaway BRK-B? like 50% in VOO and 50% in BRK-B ? your opinion is very appreciated. Thanks..
hola hi Professor G. necessary, realistic and well supported video. I feel very hopeful with your explanation and security. You are incredible THANK YOU.
Nice video! Solid advice. Bold to make a prediction. =) Biggest factor when using stats based investing is time given the volatility (about 15% SD, I think). Someone else in the comments mentioned negative and flat years, and these only get "smoothed away" if your time horizon is long enough. Also to mention that there's an underlying assumption here about reinvesting dividends to hit that 10.15%; something you may need to actively choose depending on the fund you're in.
Can you make a video about the longterm dividend growth rate of the S&P 500? I really just want to start simple with one ETF I can automate and I've been wrestling between SCHD and VOO. I know I can do both, but I want to start small.
What about a fund that just racks the top 10 companies but constantly refreshes. This means that you will always be investing in the ten most successful US companies?
Thank you, Professor G, for this informative video! I definitely want to invest like this to ease my stress load. But, I don't want to throw a big lump sum into any one time period. Over how long should I evenly dollar cost average into these funds? Like, a year 2 to fully invest, with bi weekly or monthly or quarterly, or should I use moving averages or stochastic to find better entry points? I haven't found much info regarding this dynamic, but just to do invest.
Like your boldness so many just waffle saying it might do this it might do that.Also share your view we are likely to get a decent pullback before year end but I don't expect it to last long.Have been investing in S&P since near the covid lows has been a great investment beating all my other investments.I am in for the long term now and adding on pullbacks.
There are no guarantees in this world, whilst I think the USA will continue to be a world leader, in the coming decades there's potential for other countries to also rise in their value. Diversifying is no bad thing.
Can you expand on your bearish outlook for the second half of this year? A strong January (which the S&P had) generally indicates a strong year, and we know that it's very rare for the market to have consecutive losing years. With inflation cooling the the prospect of a Fed pause, you don't think we've got enough momentum to end the year green?
@@NolanGouveia to an academic, there can be no doubt about what is about to happen. Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. The money supply has gone from $800 billion to some $200 trillion. There’s no choice but to monetize the debt. They will call it something else though. QE, maybe.
Hi, which one has a better return ? putting 5k month onto S&P or SCHD for 5 years and let it grow ? From this video S&P will double in 7 years, from history how is the projected value for SCHD 7 years ? Which one do you recommend ? Thank you !
The S&P 500 has a historical average appreciation of 10% per year, despite recent economic challenges. Investing in the top 20 companies may seem appealing, but long-term consistency is vital. The S&P 500's composition changes, ensuring exposure to emerging successful companies. Despite past crises, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic-induced recession, the S&P 500 rebounded. Using the rule of 72, a 10% average appreciation suggests doubling investments in about 7.2 years. Based on current data, I anticipate the S&P 500 to reach over $8,000 by around 2030. Thoughts on long-term strategies amid market uncertainties?
I invest 2000$ per year into an SP500 ETF for life, no matter what. No less no more. Forever, my kids too. Just some change every day will be 100.000s in 30-40 years. But it is a generational down the line long long term thing.
The S&P 500 has been close to flat in nominal terms for 40 of the past 90 years: 1929-43, 1968-1982 and 2000-2013. Those hypothetical averages are not evenly distributed. Years it goes up 20-30% you're basically getting 2-4 years of returns all at once and will see sub-par performance in the future due to mean reversion. The S&P 400 and S&P 500 have outperformed the S&P 500 over many long periods.
@@harrisonwintergreen1147 Do you mean the US mid and small cap indices have outperformed. In the US I think you could quite easily own a large cap, mid cap and maybe small cap index funds very cheaply. I guess then with a once a year rebalance, if the large caps underperformed, like from 2000 up until 2009, S&P 500 index was down for the whole period, even with dividends reinvested a minus return for the whole period. You could avoid that disaster, and possibly a bond index fund to further diversify as required. I think US investors are better served with lower cost index funds, and more choice plus possibly lower platforn charges overall. Also if you invest in US market you don't get the currency fluctuation, but investors outside the US have to contend with currency fluctuation risk when investing in the US, the biggest market in the world currently. Plus we get taxed on any dividends within US Index funds, foreign withholding tax I think its called.
@@harrisonwintergreen1147and that's why they say never put all your eggs in one basket ETF. Voo plus Schd plus a growth etf like Vug will cover almost all your bases.
I'm 100% green to investing with no advisors available. But I decided to diversify into 3rds. 1/3 s&p500 (if America does well) 1/3 physical gold (if America does bad), 1/3 into a HISA above 4%. (Typical safety net). I don't know if this was the right way to go. But I'm just trying to keep it simple.
I'm a 52 year old new to investing and been listening to you for a bit now. You've helped so much in understanding things. I started with a nest egg from a car accident, and most of that went to my investment firm, but I like understanding my investments and what to build on next. Thanks again!
If your plan is to put all of your money into an SP500 ETF, (at the end of the year, regardless of gains or falls) which you currently have in a High Yield savings account. Why not do it now?
I dollar cost average in to the S&P 500 every two weeks! But I’m also putting a small portion of money in a HYSA in case of a possible drop but even if that doesn’t happen I’ll just invest the money
Jan 1, 2000 S&P 500 price is $1,425.59 If unfortunately you bought VOO on that day you would wait for about 19 years until 2019 to get the price doubled.
If you really think a 20% drop is likely you would take money out of stocks and put them in saving accounts. I think the 20% drop is definately on the cards but who knows what the fed will do with rates so I also think it might not happen, I am old and retired already so a simple 50 50 portfolio works in wither situation, rates go down stocks go up , rates go up stocks go down, either way something will be UP and I draw on that as needed, if the drop is bigger I can move money from savings into stocks to keep the 50 50 and take advantage of the recovery..
Since you explicitly stated the top 20 stocks in the S&P 500 may outperform the market for the next couple of years, could it be an idea to invest in them and readjust yearly?
@@NolanGouveia - besides getting lucky with individual stocks, there is no real better alternative. I think the market in general all swims in the same water. The p/e of the S&P is my main basis for opinion. Trust me I’d love to see 8000 by 2030 but I just think that number will come later than that year . Hope I’m wrong
Professor G - since the biggest tech companies are the main stocks up so far, would you consider buying an equal weighted S&P500 ETF at this point in the market?
Another great video! Thank you! Lots of people forget that companies change and adapt, so shit may hit the fan at times, but our companies are smart, they adapt and change, so that is why I never bet against the US economy :)
I love the simplified way you explain complex financial topics. I have a question around the 3 fund portfolio that you explained in another video comprising of a growth fund indexed to SP500 like SPY or VOO, a tech heavy NASDAQ-100 index funds like Invesco QQQ and a dividend fund like SCHD in allocation proportion of 40, 20 and 40 percent respectively. I started applying the principle as part of a dollar cost average strategy from last month with 2K dollars. However I read and found that the market currently is highly overvalued and might go for a correction soon. In that scenario of an overvalued market, would you still recommend the same allocation of 40, 20, 40 or should we lean more towards more of a dividend fund for the period when the market is overvalued?. In the same way, would you advise allocating more percentage to the growth funds when the market is down and undervalued? Based on your research and experience, do you think it is a worthwhile pursuit for an investor to check the market status (overvalued and undervalued) and adjust the percentages accordingly? Might be good to make a video on this topic to put your view across.
@@NolanGouveia thanks, basically how often should we rebalance the portfolio and is it dependent on factors like over valued market, high rate of interest, economic and political instability or should the allocation ignore all these external factors ?
As far as I can tell (i am a complete noob), if you are investing relatively small amounts monthly then it shouldn't really matter. On average it will work out. If you were investing a large sum, then you may want to spread out contributions over a longer timeframe. If a downturn happens in that time, you can buy a larger chunk at once. If you won a million dollars I'm not sure if its better just to go all in or spread it out over a few years. I guess it depends on risk tolerance.
Professor, thanks for sharing your insight. I am an elementary teacher nearing the end of my career. I have been investing for a few years, BUT I don't have anything in my portfolio that specifically tracks the S&P 500. I was planning on adding VOO to my portfolio in 2024, BUT I recently began comparing the possible returns of increasing my allocations in a SCHG & SCHD combo (that I already have in my portfolio) instead of investing in VOO. What are your thoughts regarding such a move? ALSO, I am considering suggesting the same advice to my daughter, who works part-time & is entering her senior year at university. Would your advice or thoughts be different for her? Thanks for your time and attention.
The S&P will mostly continue higher over years simply because of inflation. 2021 was a perfect example. The fed went nuts printing liquidity then and the S&P roared. The money has to go somewhere. The same will continue in future years. The fed has no way out but keep printing until it does not work anymore. So we will see cliff like dives, but bouncing back. Sure you will get your 10% over time and I'm guessing much more. But INFLATION ADJUSTED this return is fools gold. One will need closer to 20% return on anything to think they are gaining ground.
I have a difficult question. The S&P 500 is an American index. What if America loses its economical leadership in the future? What will happen to the index?
If the top 500 companies in America consistently were to be unprofitable, America would be in a terrible situation and likely in a deep deep depression so the entire stock market would suffer. It is extremely unlikely
when one of the stock in the S&P do badly and get kicked out of the top 500, how will my investment money shift? wont i still be losing money since they will be selling my shares at lower price?
Michael Burry says that the s&P500 is a bubble that is going to burst. The reason he says is because so many people favour this share for reasons put forward in this video rather than because of actual stock value, it is overpriced and will collapse. I’d be interested in your response to this please Prof
I made this video on that earlier this year! Michael Burry: Index Fund Bubble Collapse in 2023 - Office Hours Ep.9 ua-cam.com/video/F00oUFfAXF0/v-deo.html
Question, its extremely likely that the markets will drop this year. So why dollar cost average now in knowing this? Surely better to put aside in a separate account when a solid drop in the market comes then put most of it in on the dip and at thst stage start your dollar cost averaging.
@@NolanGouveia yeah tho all signs point to a drop surely. Tho I understand over ten years we should get good return. I have been putting a little money aside to starting investing in the S&P but surely am better to wait till at a solid drop or at least years end to see if a drop. It's more likely to drop right now than increase?
@@NolanGouveia If it does not Drop you still can Invest when it is going up you Should know the Drop could be 9% and if not you only pay 4% more Per Year.
Amazing work Nolan! I see the "Galo de Barcelos" there and your surname is Portuguese so I assume you have Portuguese roots. Greetings from Portugal! Thank you and keep up the great work!!
It’s really more about how much money you have invested. The more money you have invested, the more compound interest can do its thing. But you can always start little by little and gradually add!
It’s Late February 2024 the market is up 22% now from the date of this video, that’s why I don’t listen to “experts” like yourself, put it in the S&P 500 set it and forget it. If I would have listened to you that would have been trying to time the market. Nobody can time the market, not even the “experts”.
Could you speak to the effect of inflation on the calculations we are performing? To get right at my question, if the S&P nominally doubles every 7 years how long will it take the S&P to double in inflation-adjusted dollars?
We don’t know what inflation will be so to me it doesn’t make sense to add that in to the equation. Generally our money will be worth less so we just want to invest more to stay ahead!
@@mauricewielens5249 you just account for inflation so if your stock market return is 10% your actual return is 6% and that is what in today's money that money is valued at
Great video, though those year groups could be considered cherry picking due to those years being positive ones. Let’s let the audience know bear markets do happen, and the market goes flat. This is extremely likely over the coming decade due to extreme macroeconomic conditions. Still a great video, just realize in a bear market dividends play a high % of return & compounding. Food for thought, history shows.
Can you expand to your listeners on the reasons why the SP 500 rebounded after the GFC and Coronavirus? The market has been artificially propped up by the FED with 0% rates and QE!!!
If I have 40k to invest...do I put all in my 3 desired ETF's all at once or do I DCA $1000 per month until it is all invested over the next 3.5 years? Why $1000 per month that is just what my goal per month is...I guess I could increase that to invest it all sooner. Thanks for your direction and advice.
It seems to me that ever since VOO was created the S&P has soared. Cause and effect? With more people in a bidding war VOO's returns will diminish. However, companies will also be more valuable. This will fund their expansion providing more profits. Prices Law is King. That's why I speculate the companies will grow and VOO will rise even faster than it did historically if the companies have room.
I am no expert but I don't think it works that way. VOO has a NAV which is derived from the value of the companies in the index. So it cannot be affected but bidding war more or less than the companies forming the index.
@@user-wm9hr7jg4u The stock price of any compony is not the equity of the company. Its what the open market prices it at. If I buy a stock of VOO it's not from the compony, It's from some guy in the open market. I do own some VOO.
wow this channel is just a W in every way. THANK YOU PROFESSOR
You’re awesome! Thanks for watching and commenting sir!
@@NolanGouveiaHello. I'm new to your channel as of today. I'm new to this. What do I need to start for investing in the S&P 500?
@@NolanGouveia i didnt see you take into account, the USA economy being insolvent. The competitive edge is desappearing namely the petro-dollar
I just switched up my Roth IRA to 50% SCHD, 25% SCHX, 25% SCHG, and my Roth 401k is 70% vanguard S&P 500 index, 20% vanguard growth index, and 10% vanguard international index. Seeking best possible ways to grow $350k into $1m+ before retirement, I'm 55.
Consider financial advisory so you don’t keep switching it up, Top 3 payers for the month were $OHI, $KMI, and $EDP.. not bad for 350k
The issue is most people have the “I want to do it myself mentality” but not equipped enough for a crash, so they get burnt, no offense intended. Generally speaking, investment advisors are ideal reps for investing, and at first-hand encounter since the covid-19 outbreak, my portfolio has yielded over 300%, summing up nearly 7-figure as of today.
Wonderful.. thats what I want for myself, would you mind giving out basic info of your advisor please?
"Melissa Elise Robinson" is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.
I have been investing for almost thirty years and to you young folks....THIS is the way to do it. Start investing NOW in these types of ETFs. They are safe and they WILL double every 7ish years. Time and interest are your greatest ally.
Very good!! Thank you!
Are you invested 100% in just this one?
Where do you insvest?
Which ETF doubles in 7ish?
S&P 500
I saw a Warren Buffett video where he mentioned that if you had put $10,000.00 in the S & P 500 in 1945 you would be a billionaire now. By the numbers Buffett is right. But like a lot of things Buffett is right about there were problems with it. Not that many people had $10, 000.00 in 1945, but my dad did mention that some returning soldiers, sailors, and marines did have that amount in back pay considering that they could not spend their pay while on shipboard or dodging Japanese bullets on various islands. The average serviceman in 1945 had a grade school education and had the vaguest notion of investments. Some did pay off their parent's house in the Los Angles area, which you could then, but don't try this now with $10,000.00. Like you said in your video the S & P did not exist as a market category until 1957. The first S & P fund did not start until 1975 with Vanguard which was laughed out of the room by my finance professors while I was a business major at the time. I ignored my finance professors, thankfully, and did invest some in the S & P and am planning to retire somewhat well as you might suspect. I am also planning to set up trusts for my four grandchildren using the S & P so that their retirements will be taken care of when they are my age. I try to explain investments to them now, they are in their 20s, and succeed in putting them to sleep. I suspect they will have more fond memories of me when they are my age. Disagree? Let me know.
I'm reading your comment and smiling, I am in my mid 20's and I am trying to raise funds and start investing early in the S&P, I bought my first IPO shares a few years ago around 19 years old, knowing a little more now, I wouldn't have done that.
Hello from Greece, I am buying $2000 per year of CSPX (That's the European analog of VOO, it's in dollars), for life, no matter what, no more no less. Will tell my son to do the same. Just $6 per day will be 100,000s down the generation wealth line. The trick is to have the diacipline to not spend it, and to just pretend the money is not there. Leaving for your grandchildren is amazing, if we were neighbors I would be great to have beers with you. But they must be taught the concept, so they continue the practice down the line. It's like "teach a man to fish is better than give them a fish". I also worry about it with my son, because he is 7 now and my biggest fear is I might die before explaining what to do.
$10k was a heck of a lot of cash in 1945. And 1945 was 78 years ago!!!
10k was big amount of money in 1945 but being a billionnaire now is also a big amount of money. If you invest a large fraction of your income, in 20-25y the value will be large for your lifestyle.
Yeah, $10K today would be about $170,000 adjusted for inflation.
And this was $10,000 contributed every year thereafter? I'm getting a future value of $138.7 million using a 74 year timeframe, annual return of 10.15%, and $10K contributed every year. Increasing your $10K contribution every year by 3% would get you to $190.4 million.
$72,100 invested every year for 74 years @ 10.15% return gets you to the billion.
Literally the three ETFs I'm investing in. VOO, SCHD, QQQM. I'M CURRENTLY INVESTING $100 EQUALLY INTO EACH OF THOSE EVERY SINGLE WEAK FOR 1200 A MONTH INVESTMENT...😎
Started investing this year with SCHD, VOO in my brokerage, and SWPPX in my Roth IRA. Recently started adding QQQM and O.
Crushing it! Solid picks
I have consistently felt a strong urge to pursue wisdom and authority to make a positive impact on humanity. I've been actively searching for ways to gain influence and expand my understanding of the human race and uncover knowledge that isn't accessible to everyone. My ultimate aspiration is to achieve the enlightenment that has been handed down to us by our ancestors!
Alrighty
I know exactly what you mean. I used to feel that way until I met 'Elite Benjamin Alford'. He introduced me to an organization that helped me find my purpose and passion in life. I can't say too much about it.
@@normankenny8542 That sounds like something I would be interested in. Do you think Benjamin Alford would be willing to help me join too?
@@garyakins8449 I don't see why not. You can reach out to him by searching him online with "Elite Benjamin Alford" and see if he's willing to guide you through.
@@normankenny8542 Elite Benjamin Alford ?
Are you investing in the S&P 500?!
Yea!!
Yes! In fact I’m trying to invest a bunch of money I was to conservative with during Covid. Hope I’m right about investing it over the next 6-12 months.
HECK YA
Yes all my 401k…makes it simple.
Yes VOO 40% in my Roth IRA
I started investing in August 2021 and even with the full hit of 2022 still my returns are positive nearly 5%. The consistency of the dca method is always the key.
We like that!
Now your returns should be far more than 5%
@@alekseygerbyn69 yes, almost 20 per cent right now.
Years ago, I decided to follow the advice of the 3 finance gurus: Buffett, Bogle and Lynch. Invest in American business steadily over time using low fee index funds. 25 years later I'm sitting on 3/4 mil + (would have been more were it not for a couple loans through the years...but se la vie). The compounding really starts taking off after you hit 3 or 400k so it gets easier later in your career. For all of this not to work, you would have to believe in a total collapse of the US economy and our way of life which would really mean a world wide collapse of such epic proportions the last thing you would need to worry about is your investments anyway. Since I find that scenario improbable and highly unlikely, I will keep investing every 2 weeks until I retire later this year. ✌
I tried crypto, fail, I tried individual stocks again fail been on S&P500 for past year and I’m doing great
Good work!
The thing about the s&p is that there’s a chance there will be some bad years. The important thing is that you’re invested for the long term
I just started SIP in S&P 500 VANGUARD ETF
I have my money in sp 500, SCHD, JEPI, and 30 individual stocks. mostly dividend paying companies as well as a few growth names like Tesla, google, Disney, sofi, Uber and then about 20% in crypto.
I AM gen X to the core. Buffett is my mentor and his advice is both timeless abd sound! During my lifetime, since 1972, this country and economy has almost always been in some sort of crisis. It is resilient. It rebounds! Sometimes it takes time.
Very true!
Good to hear. I just started investing last year and my strategy is to DCA into Voo, schd and qqqm too.
Solid strategy my friend!
Why do you prefer VOO or SPY when FXAIX has a 0.015% expense ratio? 50% less than VOO.
Great info as always!! 😊 I have no delusions that I could ever “beat the market” for one year much less consistently “beat the market” over many years, so this safer approach is much more palatable to me personally! 😊
I’m 100% with you!
That's a great insight. I always learn a lot from you Prof G. You're the best, thanks so much!!!
Awesome! Thanks for the feedback and thanks for watching!
I retired from trucking in 2013. I went back to work in early '20 when the market dropped, and am still working today. I'm ploughing everything I can into the index while it's cheap. When the S&P gets back to 4800 I'll retire again. If/when it drops again after that, I'll go back to work and load up at another discount.
Have you retired?
@@kevineiford2153Retired in oct of '23 to the southwest for good. I'm 59 and done.
Am sure he did since S&P is at 5400 now 😂
You said 70% of your money is in VOO, SCHD, and QQQm… what’s the other 30% in? Whats the strategy there (I’m buying your course, is it covered there?)
I love the Man in the Arena behind him and his collection of books!
Thankyou!
Love your videos sir. I'm a 23 year old from Kuwait and I just started my investing journey this year! My current portfolio is 70% VTI 20% VXUS 10% VUG.
Awesome job!! You’re way ahead of the game getting invested so early!
Great job!! Wow....to have my youth back and have the foresight you do! I'd probably have $4million USD by now in investments (I'm 55 years old)!
In my expert opinion the “experts” cannot predict the stock market. However over the long term the S&P historically goes up 10.15%
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I just tested this taking the close of the index in mid July and taking the average of the three years, with middle year stated. 1984 to 1991 gets you 2.27 times, 91 to 98 3.04, 98 to 05 1.00 times, 05 to 12 1.22 times, 12 to 19 1.9 times. No room for the next seven, so 15 to 22 gets you 2.03 times. I was hoping for a smoother ride that had been suggested. In fact, rather than doubling every seven years, you might end up the same or triple.
Great job, research and data - thank you!
Any time!
Professor, what do you think in also investing in Berkshire Hathaway BRK-B? like 50% in VOO and 50% in BRK-B ? your opinion is very appreciated. Thanks..
One could definitely do that
I mean, I just got this video in my recommended videos, and I just loved it.
Thank you professor!
I’m glad you enjoyed it!
hola hi Professor G. necessary, realistic and well supported video. I feel very hopeful with your explanation and security. You are incredible THANK YOU.
Thank you so much for the awesome feedback Elvis!
Nice video! Solid advice. Bold to make a prediction. =)
Biggest factor when using stats based investing is time given the volatility (about 15% SD, I think). Someone else in the comments mentioned negative and flat years, and these only get "smoothed away" if your time horizon is long enough. Also to mention that there's an underlying assumption here about reinvesting dividends to hit that 10.15%; something you may need to actively choose depending on the fund you're in.
Very well said!
is there an ETF that only has the KING STOCKS that is stocks that have paid a dividend for 50 years or more??? if so what is that ETF
FP thanks for the like but is there an ETF THAT ONLY HAS THE KING STOCKS IN IT???
Thanks, great information. Have a great day! 😀
You as well!
Can you make a video about the longterm dividend growth rate of the S&P 500? I really just want to start simple with one ETF I can automate and I've been wrestling between SCHD and VOO. I know I can do both, but I want to start small.
I would go with SCHD as it will out perform the S&P 500 and give you dividends the rest of your life.
What about a fund that just racks the top 10 companies but constantly refreshes. This means that you will always be investing in the ten most successful US companies?
Thank you for this. I'm trying to learn about investing and you've made this very understandable.
So glad to hear! Keep up the good work and learn all you can!
Kudos to your commitment. Gold is good too as insurance.
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Thank you, Professor G, for this informative video! I definitely want to invest like this to ease my stress load. But, I don't want to throw a big lump sum into any one time period. Over how long should I evenly dollar cost average into these funds? Like, a year 2 to fully invest, with bi weekly or monthly or quarterly, or should I use moving averages or stochastic to find better entry points? I haven't found much info regarding this dynamic, but just to do invest.
I’d just invest evenly every 2 weeks for a year!
@@NolanGouveia Thank you so much!
Like your boldness so many just waffle saying it might do this it might do that.Also share your view we are likely to get a decent pullback before year end but I don't expect it to last long.Have been investing in S&P since near the covid lows has been a great investment beating all my other investments.I am in for the long term now and adding on pullbacks.
Great job!
Then why do you think that john bogle in his book "common sense investing" chapter 9 said that his prediction is 4% profit per year ?
I'd really appreciate an answer.
What a great video!!! A big thank you from Chile 😘
I appreciate it!
Take note that when he says the S&P has historically generated a 10% rate of return, that's assuming all dividends are reinvested.
Yessir!
75% of my portfolio is in the US/S&P500. I'm in the process if rebalancing it to aroubd 60%
Why?
There are no guarantees in this world, whilst I think the USA will continue to be a world leader, in the coming decades there's potential for other countries to also rise in their value.
Diversifying is no bad thing.
@@cameronmmj9291 500 stocks isnt enough?
Fantastic work 👏 👍 👌
Please keep it up your doing an amazing job !!!
Thankyou very much!
Thanks and cheers from Switzerland. By the way I love your "galo de barcelos". 😀😀😀👍👍👍👍
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Can you expand on your bearish outlook for the second half of this year? A strong January (which the S&P had) generally indicates a strong year, and we know that it's very rare for the market to have consecutive losing years. With inflation cooling the the prospect of a Fed pause, you don't think we've got enough momentum to end the year green?
Here’s the video I did on this subject! Prepare: MASSIVE Stock Market Crash On This Date
ua-cam.com/video/DsxEVCLQT9o/v-deo.html
We are in the greatest asset bubble of all time. The S&P 500 is about to plummet precipitously.
I disagree but let’s see!
@@NolanGouveia to an academic, there can be no doubt about what is about to happen. Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. The money supply has gone from $800 billion to some $200 trillion. There’s no choice but to monetize the debt. They will call it something else though. QE, maybe.
it won't plummet lol. correct temporarily maybe. it will double by 2032.
@@user-uh7hb8ik5k Michael Burry is shorting the market. He is following my theory.
Hi, which one has a better return ? putting 5k month onto S&P or SCHD for 5 years and let it grow ? From this video S&P will double in 7 years, from history how is the projected value for SCHD 7 years ? Which one do you recommend ? Thank you !
Honestly they have been very similar and moving forward I expect the same so I invest in both pretty equally
Thank you !!
Excellent yet again!
I appreciate the kind feedback!
The S&P 500 has a historical average appreciation of 10% per year, despite recent economic challenges. Investing in the top 20 companies may seem appealing, but long-term consistency is vital. The S&P 500's composition changes, ensuring exposure to emerging successful companies. Despite past crises, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic-induced recession, the S&P 500 rebounded. Using the rule of 72, a 10% average appreciation suggests doubling investments in about 7.2 years. Based on current data, I anticipate the S&P 500 to reach over $8,000 by around 2030. Thoughts on long-term strategies amid market uncertainties?
I invest 2000$ per year into an SP500 ETF for life, no matter what. No less no more. Forever, my kids too. Just some change every day will be 100.000s in 30-40 years. But it is a generational down the line long long term thing.
The S&P 500 has been close to flat in nominal terms for 40 of the past 90 years: 1929-43, 1968-1982 and 2000-2013. Those hypothetical averages are not evenly distributed. Years it goes up 20-30% you're basically getting 2-4 years of returns all at once and will see sub-par performance in the future due to mean reversion.
The S&P 400 and S&P 500 have outperformed the S&P 500 over many long periods.
@@harrisonwintergreen1147 Do you mean the US mid and small cap indices have outperformed. In the US I think you could quite easily own a large cap, mid cap and maybe small cap index funds very cheaply. I guess then with a once a year rebalance, if the large caps underperformed, like from 2000 up until 2009, S&P 500 index was down for the whole period, even with dividends reinvested a minus return for the whole period. You could avoid that disaster, and possibly a bond index fund to further diversify as required. I think US investors are better served with lower cost index funds, and more choice plus possibly lower platforn charges overall. Also if you invest in US market you don't get the currency fluctuation, but investors outside the US have to contend with currency fluctuation risk when investing in the US, the biggest market in the world currently. Plus we get taxed on any dividends within US Index funds, foreign withholding tax I think its called.
@@harrisonwintergreen1147and that's why they say never put all your eggs in one basket ETF. Voo plus Schd plus a growth etf like Vug will cover almost all your bases.
I'm 100% green to investing with no advisors available. But I decided to diversify into 3rds. 1/3 s&p500 (if America does well) 1/3 physical gold (if America does bad), 1/3 into a HISA above 4%. (Typical safety net).
I don't know if this was the right way to go. But I'm just trying to keep it simple.
I’m in the uk
If I invest in vanguard S&P 500 I’m I correct in saying i can’t auto invest the dividends ( I’m sure I read that somewhere ??
Yes you can, choose (acc) not (dist) 👍🏼
I'm a 52 year old new to investing and been listening to you for a bit now. You've helped so much in understanding things. I started with a nest egg from a car accident, and most of that went to my investment firm, but I like understanding my investments and what to build on next. Thanks again!
So glad to hear that I’ve been helping! Good job learning this stuff and taking charge of your finances!
almost same here (abt age & investing in ETF) Got some spare from a "mini windfall" abt 2 yrs ago, and started to learn & investing into ETF
@@dequadin18 🙌🙌
If your plan is to put all of your money into an SP500 ETF, (at the end of the year, regardless of gains or falls) which you currently have in a High Yield savings account. Why not do it now?
I dollar cost average in to the S&P 500 every two weeks! But I’m also putting a small portion of money in a HYSA in case of a possible drop but even if that doesn’t happen I’ll just invest the money
Do broad market ETFs adjust to top companies like so 500?
Most do but you’ll need to research that
I love my etf sp500...
What's ur opinion about the BRICS?
In future do u think will afect our etf sp500 companies?
Is there a reason you did not mention Fidelity S&P500 FXAIX?
No not necessarily, any S&P 500 etf or mutual fund is usually pretty solid! Fidelity’s is great
Who doesn’t love professors
That’s the energy we need! Haha!
Jan 1, 2000 S&P 500 price is $1,425.59
If unfortunately you bought VOO on that day you would wait for about 19 years until 2019 to get the price doubled.
To double your money doesn’t sound unfortunate to me
If you really think a 20% drop is likely you would take money out of stocks and put them in saving accounts.
I think the 20% drop is definately on the cards but who knows what the fed will do with rates so I also think it might not happen, I am old and retired already so a simple 50 50 portfolio works in wither situation, rates go down stocks go up , rates go up stocks go down, either way something will be UP and I draw on that as needed, if the drop is bigger I can move money from savings into stocks to keep the 50 50 and take advantage of the recovery..
It’s impossible to time the market. If you sell off & it goes up 30%, then you missed out. My stocks went up 24% in January alone.
Since you explicitly stated the top 20 stocks in the S&P 500 may outperform the market for the next couple of years, could it be an idea to invest in them and readjust yearly?
This is a strategy some use but you have to pay taxes on your capital gains once you sell during your yearly rebalance
@@NolanGouveia good point!
8,000 for the S&P is not a bet im willing to take with my money. Almost all of the top weight-companies on the S&P are pretty expensive.
8000 is extremely optimistic. IMHO
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What’s the alternative? What are you investing in instead?
@@NolanGouveia - besides getting lucky with individual stocks, there is no real better alternative. I think the market in general all swims in the same water. The p/e of the S&P is my main basis for opinion. Trust me I’d love to see 8000 by 2030 but I just think that number will come later than that year . Hope I’m wrong
@@NolanGouveia I place my bets in sectors or companies that have underperformed for some time 👀
Professor G - since the biggest tech companies are the main stocks up so far, would you consider buying an equal weighted S&P500 ETF at this point in the market?
No I’m good with the normal market cap weighted S&P 500 for long term investing
i‘m 95% in bitcoin. the rest is in the SPDR S&P 500. its very cheap in europe. i hope its a good one.
Another great video! Thank you! Lots of people forget that companies change and adapt, so shit may hit the fan at times, but our companies are smart, they adapt and change, so that is why I never bet against the US economy :)
So true!! Agree!
Great video as always!
Thankyou!
I love the simplified way you explain complex financial topics. I have a question around the 3 fund portfolio that you explained in another video comprising of a growth fund indexed to SP500 like SPY or VOO, a tech heavy NASDAQ-100 index funds like Invesco QQQ and a dividend fund like SCHD in allocation proportion of 40, 20 and 40 percent respectively. I started applying the principle as part of a dollar cost average strategy from last month with 2K dollars. However I read and found that the market currently is highly overvalued and might go for a correction soon. In that scenario of an overvalued market, would you still recommend the same allocation of 40, 20, 40 or should we lean more towards more of a dividend fund for the period when the market is overvalued?. In the same way, would you advise allocating more percentage to the growth funds when the market is down and undervalued? Based on your research and experience, do you think it is a worthwhile pursuit for an investor to check the market status (overvalued and undervalued) and adjust the percentages accordingly? Might be good to make a video on this topic to put your view across.
Great questions and I’ll definitely touch on these in future videos!
@@NolanGouveia thanks, basically how often should we rebalance the portfolio and is it dependent on factors like over valued market, high rate of interest, economic and political instability or should the allocation ignore all these external factors ?
As far as I can tell (i am a complete noob), if you are investing relatively small amounts monthly then it shouldn't really matter. On average it will work out.
If you were investing a large sum, then you may want to spread out contributions over a longer timeframe. If a downturn happens in that time, you can buy a larger chunk at once.
If you won a million dollars I'm not sure if its better just to go all in or spread it out over a few years. I guess it depends on risk tolerance.
do i invest in an s&p 500 index fund or etf, what’s the difference
Hard to explain here but just go with the ETF. Much more simple and lower entry price point
Love the idea of putting it into a high yield savings account and buying regardless but potentially getting a deal.
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Excellent video!
Thank you for the feedback!
Do you believe in Models like Brownian Motion or ARIMA are solid for predicting future Stock/ETF prices?
It’s very tough to predict with much accuracy in a futures model, but they do their best!
Hi Professor G.
Can you please recommend some good options for HYSA's ? Many thanks
Here you go! Top 5 BEST Savings Accounts of 2023 (SUPER HIGH YIELD)
ua-cam.com/video/VN6UbQhWEPI/v-deo.html
This investment video helped me out a lot for ETFs. I definitely recommend to others if they need investment help!!!
Thankyou 🙏🇲🇱
Does MSCI USA Index beat the S&P 500 index?
The MSCI includes some mid-caps.
The Nasdaq 100 also includes many S&P 500 companies.
Professor, thanks for sharing your insight. I am an elementary teacher nearing the end of my career. I have been investing for a few years, BUT I don't have anything in my portfolio that specifically tracks the S&P 500. I was planning on adding VOO to my portfolio in 2024, BUT I recently began comparing the possible returns of increasing my allocations in a SCHG & SCHD combo (that I already have in my portfolio) instead of investing in VOO. What are your thoughts regarding such a move? ALSO, I am considering suggesting the same advice to my daughter, who works part-time & is entering her senior year at university. Would your advice or thoughts be different for her? Thanks for your time and attention.
I have the same in my roth ira. I also will be adding Fxaix soon.
Which high yield savings account do you use? I just started wealthfronts cash account for hys
I use capital one
Nice video Professor G :). What do you think of VOO + QQQM + BOTZ ??
That’s pushing a little bit more risky but I do like all of those funds!
The S&P will mostly continue higher over years simply because of inflation. 2021 was a perfect example. The fed went nuts printing liquidity then and the S&P roared. The money has to go somewhere. The same will continue in future years. The fed has no way out but keep printing until it does not work anymore. So we will see cliff like dives, but bouncing back. Sure you will get your 10% over time and I'm guessing much more. But INFLATION ADJUSTED this return is fools gold. One will need closer to 20% return on anything to think they are gaining ground.
Inflation is a key reason yes. 10% appreciation consistently or average will definitely be enough to keep one ahead though!
I have a difficult question. The S&P 500 is an American index. What if America loses its economical leadership in the future? What will happen to the index?
If the top 500 companies in America consistently were to be unprofitable, America would be in a terrible situation and likely in a deep deep depression so the entire stock market would suffer. It is extremely unlikely
ETF'S All the way! SCHD, SPLG, VTI, Few single stocks, and dividend stocks.
Solid!
voo gain for me 24% on 93,000
Sweet!
when one of the stock in the S&P do badly and get kicked out of the top 500, how will my investment money shift? wont i still be losing money since they will be selling my shares at lower price?
It’s such a small portion of what you’re investing in so you won’t feel it, especially longbterm
Very useful thanks
If you can do the same with the Nasdaq QQQ will be great.
Michael Burry says that the s&P500 is a bubble that is going to burst. The reason he says is because so many people favour this share for reasons put forward in this video rather than because of actual stock value, it is overpriced and will collapse. I’d be interested in your response to this please Prof
I made this video on that earlier this year! Michael Burry: Index Fund Bubble Collapse in 2023 - Office Hours Ep.9
ua-cam.com/video/F00oUFfAXF0/v-deo.html
He’s been wrong for about 16 years now so…
Hi there. Do you still believe the S&P will go down by 20% by the end if this year?
I think we will see a bit of a correction but not quite a substantial one
So an s&p 500 etf is the best investment?
One of my top ones for sure
qqq, voo, schd, thank you!
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Question, its extremely likely that the markets will drop this year. So why dollar cost average now in knowing this? Surely better to put aside in a separate account when a solid drop in the market comes then put most of it in on the dip and at thst stage start your dollar cost averaging.
What if it doesn’t drop?
@@NolanGouveia yeah tho all signs point to a drop surely. Tho I understand over ten years we should get good return. I have been putting a little money aside to starting investing in the S&P but surely am better to wait till at a solid drop or at least years end to see if a drop. It's more likely to drop right now than increase?
@@NolanGouveia If it does not Drop you still can Invest when it is going up you Should know the Drop could be 9% and if not you only pay 4% more Per Year.
Amazing work Nolan!
I see the "Galo de Barcelos" there and your surname is Portuguese so I assume you have Portuguese roots.
Greetings from Portugal!
Thank you and keep up the great work!!
🇵🇹🇵🇹 thank you and yes! Portuguese
How many shares is a good number of shares to buy into just ‘one’ of these eft stocks, to see longterm gains in the beginning stages of investment?
It’s really more about how much money you have invested. The more money you have invested, the more compound interest can do its thing. But you can always start little by little and gradually add!
It’s Late February 2024 the market is up 22% now from the date of this video, that’s why I don’t listen to “experts” like yourself, put it in the S&P 500 set it and forget it. If I would have listened to you that would have been trying to time the market. Nobody can time the market, not even the “experts”.
Watch the video again bud
Shows how much you understand about investing with your reply 🤦♂️
Awesome video
Thank you! I appreciate you watching and commenting :-)
Could you speak to the effect of inflation on the calculations we are performing? To get right at my question, if the S&P nominally doubles every 7 years how long will it take the S&P to double in inflation-adjusted dollars?
We don’t know what inflation will be so to me it doesn’t make sense to add that in to the equation. Generally our money will be worth less so we just want to invest more to stay ahead!
If you are calculating with average return, can't you also calculate with average inflation?
@@mauricewielens5249 you just account for inflation so if your stock market return is 10% your actual return is 6% and that is what in today's money that money is valued at
Can you make a video on the yeildmax funds like aply tsly and oark and why someone should avoid or consider investing in these
Good idea!
Coming back in 2030. Expecting to be glad I kept investing
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Great video, though those year groups could be considered cherry picking due to those years being positive ones. Let’s let the audience know bear markets do happen, and the market goes flat. This is extremely likely over the coming decade due to extreme macroeconomic conditions. Still a great video, just realize in a bear market dividends play a high % of return & compounding. Food for thought, history shows.
I just put 225k into sp500, hopefully I will become a millionaire in the next ten years
Sweet! Keep it up!
Can you expand to your listeners on the reasons why the SP 500 rebounded after the GFC and Coronavirus? The market has been artificially propped up by the FED with 0% rates and QE!!!
If I have 40k to invest...do I put all in my 3 desired ETF's all at once or do I DCA $1000 per month until it is all invested over the next 3.5 years? Why $1000 per month that is just what my goal per month is...I guess I could increase that to invest it all sooner. Thanks for your direction and advice.
If it was me I’d put half in now (20k) then dca the 1000 per month thereafter
@@NolanGouveia thank you so much doe the fast reply. Really awesome!
So you dont a lost decade in the cards like 2000-2010?
It seems to me that ever since VOO was created the S&P has soared. Cause and effect? With more people in a bidding war VOO's returns will diminish. However, companies will also be more valuable. This will fund their expansion providing more profits. Prices Law is King. That's why I speculate the companies will grow and VOO will rise even faster than it did historically if the companies have room.
VOO lower management fees as well
I am no expert but I don't think it works that way. VOO has a NAV which is derived from the value of the companies in the index. So it cannot be affected but bidding war more or less than the companies forming the index.
@@user-wm9hr7jg4u The stock price of any compony is not the equity of the company. Its what the open market prices it at. If I buy a stock of VOO it's not from the compony, It's from some guy in the open market. I do own some VOO.