Are Labour Really Ahead?
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- Опубліковано 7 січ 2024
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Most if not all British media seems to be reporting that Labour is in for a historic win at the next General Election. How embarrassing it would be for all of us if the polls turned out to be wrong; but could this actually happen, and could Sunak be in power for another five years?
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1 - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion...
2 - www.ft.com/content/6d51dca0-b...
3 - www.parliament.uk/business/pu...
4 - commonslibrary.parliament.uk/...
As a Pole I apologise for the poor polling . We try our best
😂
We need more Polls in this country 🇬🇧📊
Mate, I know how you feel. As a good Czech person, I'm tired of all the delaying of us at the UK border...
@@yuvi3738 Missing that cheap labour imported from east Europe?
@@wotermelon_
No, missing workers who know what the fuck they are doing.
Remember- It’s not Labour looking good, it’s Tories looking awful
Kier Starmer is about as inspirational as a wet noodle
I hate labour and ill most likely vote for them depending on polling closer to the time just to keep those fucking tories out! Hope we can get a real right leaning party in the UK soon!
That sums it up. People aren't exactly exciting about Starmer.
Especially since labour lost their biggest demographic support
Why? Middle class and upper class are richer then under labour and they make up a larger amount of the population
Why would they want to give up loads of taxes for labour to spunk and bankrupt our country again 😂
What may impact the eventual outcome is many non-Tory voters thinking that they don't need to bother voting because the battle is already won.
Yes, I've always found this logic to be deeply irrational...why not cast your vote to do your bit to push your party over the line?
@Phoenix2896 alas humans are inherently irrational.
absolutely Max
What are LABOUR offering? Nothing much different while allowing more migrants in. No radical new plan...
@@Donny427some of them do not believe in voting, some have said to me that voting will do nothing to change the madness that is going on here in the UK....in effect they choose to not contribute in voting
So the accuracy of the polls depends how accurate the polls are?
I suspect witchcraft
@@aituk An average conservative after hearing a foreign language:
Well yes, that's always how it's been and this is no exception
You don't say
Well there is a way to make the polls suit you, just take questions in your parties strongest area. Or use the media in your pocket to run a propaganda campaign. Tories do it all the time, via lobbyists and fat cheques. Labour are not squeaky clean either, so like I said earlier, we need alternatives. Nobody in their right minds believes anything either party says, because we know once in, they will revert to what ever they want.
Yes, they're ahead. Yes, they're going to win. However, yes, it will probably be a lot closer than current polling suggests.
It won't make any difference they are both running Blair new labour straits/policy
Since they're definitely going to win, you may as well bet your life savings on that outcome...
Because jack said so
@@Yawnymcsnore they're not.
They're not necessarily wrong at the moment but the polls will narrow closer to the election as conservative voters stop fence sitting. But unless something catastrophic happens like pictures cropping up of Starmer on Epstien island, the poll gap reducing by 20 points seems all but impossible
Even if the average of all the opinion polls released over the last month are out within the margin of error Labour is still miles ahead of the Tories. For the Tories to win the next election the polls would have to be out by 20% or more.
Not that anything would change if Labour win anyway, they already committed to austerity. Love the "Totally with the Union" Starmer!
I'd recall 2017. A 20 point lead by the Tories had collapsed as soon as the election actually came around. Not to mention the massive issue of the split left vote vs the Tories who need only compete with whatever farage does.
Right now the poles are good as indicators, but as soon as election season starts anything could happen.
@@adhiwicaksono6149we can hope they won’t carry on with austerity but we won’t know until they’re in No10
@@Alex-fm5ke Yeah bro just wait and see just like how we are waiting to see Starmer stand once with any kind of strike. Once.
In the by elections Labour would of lost had the voters who stayed away turned up to vote. Also Reform ate away at the Torys.
They were very low turn outs. A GE will have a higher turn out of Tory voters.
This election is not a done deal. Most people see it as the Tory`s vs Tory lite.
We're buggered either way.
I feel Britain is in desperate need of a change from the Tories and Labour party. Britain needs a party that will proactively reverse 30 years of cultural and economic vandalism to the country.
Vote reform
Such a thing does not exist.
But it doesn't work on a national level with your current voting system. There are numerous parties wanting that and they are disunited. They need to make a name for themselves locally first. Another way would be popular MPs leaving their old party for a new one
Scottish independence should do the trick 😊
And what exactly will the do? @@craigj3804
Surprised that there was no mention of turnout, as this is one big factor differentiating polls from final result.
If the electorate choose the Tories again then there really is no hope in political solutions for this country.
There isn't anyway. Labour just screw up in different ways to the Conservatives. I hate both and have no worthwhile vote.
I hate the Tories. With a passion.
The problem is, all the other options are even worse.
@@PiousMoltareven worse? Aside from reform, I don’t see any other party trying to slip backwards on our rights and freedoms.
Yes vote Labour and watch everything get worse than it already is
Another thing to take into mind is that Polling in UK is based of opinion percentages of whole country and typically isn't done seat by seat. Don't forget going into the 2010 election the lib dems were polling nearly level with labour the highest opinion polling for them ever. They lost 5 seats because national polling can actually hurt a parties results if you end up splitting votes in the seats or if activists are spread too thin because the polling makes them think seats are a given. The FPTP voting system can result is weird things happening even when the national polling showing something different.
Exactly!!!
I didn't quite get that .
Can you explain it in more simpler way?
What exactly is FTPT?
@@vatsal7640 the person with the most votes in a seat wins the seat, which means that vote splitting can change the results dramatically. it's a system that encourage 2 large parties (see UK and US), where as proportional-like representation has a lot more *viable* parties to vote for (see most EU countries)
I really hope they are not wrong, I don't this country could survive another 5 years of the tories.
If the tories win again I'm getting a dinghy and claiming assylum in France.
Who’s the alternative?
@@FormulaJF there's only one alternative and while Sir Keir is not everyone's cup of tean the labour party as a whole will be much better than what we have.
@@Paul-eb4jp only one alternative if you let your mind be pushed into that. Which is exactly what the media and the establishment wants, to keep it a scaremongering 2 party system.
I’ve read labours manifesto and it’s nothing but more debt and borrowing and half arse promises.
I’m not voting torie either as they don’t do what the electorate want and voted for. Both party are liars.
I’m voting reform based on policies and honesty which people hate. And based on the above they can’t be any worse. As if they don’t get in it will be Labour anyway due to mindset which you have just stated that millions follow.
Tories lie and cut Labour just borrow.
Least with reform they actually want to benefit the working class with big tax adjustments and cut the establishment in key areas to save real money to pay for it and benefit Britain.
I take all politics in the U.K. with a pinch of salt aswell. But a vote for Labour will only make us poorer over the next decade.
@@Paul-eb4jp labour 😂 yeh sounds about right.
So you want more people, bigger divide between rich and poor. More borrowing.
Under Labour we will 100% be the nation that pays to everyone in the world to be PC.
Labour won’t do anything different to the tories. Be more of them same read there policies and tell me what will make a positive change. As I have and I see nothing positive just more of the same with alot more debt/borrowing.
I don’t support the tories after 14 years of broken promises either.
@@FormulaJF This government have more than trebled the national and last year we saw record immigration, are you saying you want more of the same?
People have always been reticent to admit voting Tory in the polls. Whatever your own political views, you have to take that into account. It seems unlikely, though. I have warts that are more popular than Sunak.😁
When your on average worse off than you were in 2006 you'd need to have Stockholm syndrome to vote Tory
Andrew, I'd vote for your warts before Sunak.
Not just sunak but the Tory party itself
@@SlowhandGreg they did still vote Tory in 2015, 2017, and 2019.
@@jamessteel9016 No one in their right mind could vote for Corbyn Labour had lost the election as soon as he was made leader. Don't believe me, why did so many lifelong Labour families abandon the party in the so called RED WALL seats.
While the polls were wrong by 8 points in 1992, it's worth noting that no governing party has ever went on to win after starting nearly 20 points behind, just look at 1997 for example. Yes, the gap closed a little, but the Tories were STILL miles behind. Also, polls never factor in tactical voting, which is sure to be a major factor this time around. So while I agree that it's better not get carried away with poll leads, that doesn't mean an unpopular governing party is suddenly going to turn things around in the space of a few months.
In theory they have over a year to turn it around 😅
Yes. This is a desperate attempt at relevance. The media don’t want to talk about a one sided election. That’s not click bait.
Okay. I'll go with this. What could The Conservatives do to win? They could do better than expected in the local elections and win some byelections which would reinvigorate the whole party and may cut down on the infighting. They could unite behind a manifesto that's popular with the public and if small boat crossings drop drastically and interest rates come down they could be in a better position. You could also find Labour imploding if the going gets tougher and the big points lead evaporates. They are very inexperienced and will need a really compelling policy offering along with cast-iron discipline and resilience to get through this election. It is going to be really, really nasty.
"it's worth noting that no governing party has ever went on to win after starting nearly 20 points behind" Maybe but there is a significant possibility of a Labour minority rather than majority government if the polls are as wrong as they normally are-which most of us want.
@@archvaldor Normally? 1992 and 2015 were off years, but generally they don’t get it spectacularly wrong. In 2017, Labour’s poll numbers were improving throughout the campaign.
I think Winston Churchill said it best..... "Dogs know best what to do with polls."
Labour will certainly win, the majority of people aren't going to vote tory after all the chaos and the only alternative under a FPTP system is the other of the two established partys (Labour).
Though personally i believe the current voting system is beyond outdated and struggle to call it a Democracy since it doesn't accurately represent or give adequate choice if your views fall further out from the current batch of Conservative/Labour candidates.
I wonder whether polling like this breeds complacency, causing a shift in actual results? If everyone is saying X party is 20 points ahead, their victory is a foregone conclusion, it might dissuade people from bothering to vote. And then, because they didn’t vote, they results are actually very different.
Just speaking for myself, but there's no way I'm taking that chance. I would hope other people think the same
Exactly. Polls should be BANNED from the moment an election date is set. The reason they aren't is BECAUSE they can influence the result.
I mean, realistically it disincentivises both sides, so it should more or less even out
I think the polls might be wrong as very few people will openly admit they vote Conservative
True and especially at the moment .
Labour Landslide
Time for a red wedding.
i'd love to say you're right, but i just get the feeling that it won't be as much of a landslide as the polls suggest: maybe around 370-380 seats, rather than 450 or something ludicrous like that. because remember labour have to overturn a MASSIVE swing against them from 2019, which was their worst result since 1983 i believe, and that's easier said than done despite what the polls are suggesting. at least blair had the advantage of labour at least gaining in 1992 to a position where major ended up losing his majority over time, making it a lot easier to get a landslide
Aaaand you jinxed it
You wish.😂😂 the conservatives will maintain control of the government
I checked the analysis of some poll companies in Turkey after their failed guesses that Erdogan will lose in the first round. They try to deny it but they all had trouble finding conservative voters to make polling. So it means that there was a huge shy tory effect.
Conservative voters tend to punish their parties if economy goes bad, but they still don't want to see the other side win.
They can just stay home. That's mostly why the Tories are polling so low right now. Labour hasn't won much Tories over, the Tories have just self imploded
And do you not think that they dont know that? That it breeds the contempt we now have. You are right in one thing though and that is, everybody is fed up with BOTH of them and our vote which ever way we vote will have little effect.
Also some people are not comfortable with answering honestly on the polls and rather tend to go with socially acceptable option. I believe that was a big factor in polling before 2016 US presidential elections.
Stated preference vs revealed preference its a very common occurrence.
The national polls in 2016 were accurate. The issue is that the electoral college allows the loser to win, even when Hillary won by a couple million votes.
Even shy Tory voters won’t help the Tories this time.
This is so weird. And true. Why do people vote for a party they're embarrassed to vote for? Surely that very fact is a red flag! If people find Tory policies distasteful, and you lie to people and polling companies because you don't want to seem distasteful too... then why go on and be distasteful? Change your views!
Exactly. Polls always show people happy to pay 1p higher tax if goes to the NHS. When the Conservatives put up NI to all go to the NHS people squealed.
Free to "say" you happy. Not free to pick which kid doesn't get christmas presents.
The crux issue of the 2017 UK election was Labour's commitment to staying in the single market and customs union vs the Tories hard Brexit, as a result a huge section of the remain vote went into Labour as a result warping the result significantly. The other examples show a fairly substantial shift in public opinion immediatly preceding the election and thus public opinion being fairly volatile.
Polling is only quasi-scientific. Pollsters take the raw results and weight them. The main basis of this weighting is to adjust for things they got wrong before and to factor in assumptions such as the young being less likely to vote, the better off being more likely to vote etc. But if a phenomenon they haven't previously encountered takes place - such as the surge in youth enthusiasm for Corbyn, or the deliberate targeting of the uneducated by the Brexit campaign - their predictions are likely to be completely wrong. I think the unexpected factor in the next campaign will be Starmer's alienation of the Labour base and it could be huge. I'm working class and my circle of friends, acquaintances, workmates, family and neighbours is almost exclusively working class. If Starmer hasn't got them, he's in trouble and all I hear about him is negative: "Can't trust him", "He's a racist", "He's a closet Tory", etc etc
Do the polls account for tactical voting? I want Labour to win but will need to vote LibDem to remove the Tory MP.
Me too.
Obviously. Unless you tell them you will vote Labour and then don't. But even that is accounted for to a degree.
Same for me in Powys
What are you hoping to achieve voting Labour? Do you not realise the game is rigged by now? Lookup the definition of insanity, why not choose another party instead of the usual two main parties who promise the earth and deliver nothing?
Well done.
Get the tories out!!!!! I’m voting labour
Keith is a Tory tho
What a sheep, you know they are exactly the same
Then who should they vote?@@Yawnymcsnore
@@Yawnymcsnorelabour sucks but if you want a genuinely left wing government, when people are dissatisfied with labour they'll hopefully vote for a more progressive wing option at the election after.
@@mtaufiqn5040 Look at Reform see if it's for you.
For the 1970 General Election in the UK, many polls predicted a Labour victory. Labour had been considerably behind in the polls for a long time, but suddenly, the opinion polls started to show a considerable Labour recovery, and then put Labour ahead. Harold Wilson called a General Election, but the Conservatives won.
If the Tories win again this country is screwed, I don't know what I will do. Probably quit my job in the NHS and try and move out of the country.
Wise idea. Unfortunately, one of the "benefits" of Brexit means it's harder for the average person to escape now. I mean, before Brexit, it was easy as getting a plane ticket to anywhere in the EU. Now, you have to pass tests like having a skill that is needed in a job in that country, or retiring and proving you have 2 or 3 times the current UK pension available. Best get the dinghy out.
@@OrangeNash
Misleading
It's worth noting that the polls can be wrong, and Labour knows this.
In 1959 less than a week before the election Hugh Gaitskell's Labour was predicted to beat Harold Macmillan's Conservatives, they lost. Same thing happened to Harold Wilson in 1970, where less than a week out it was polled he would beat Edward Heath only to lose. Same thing happened to Ed Miliband in 2015, where less than a week out, it was polled he would beat Cameron.
And of course there is 1992, where the Exit Polls on the night predicted a Labour Minority win, only for John Major to somehow win by large margin, forcing the polling companies to reform how they worked out polling to include the infamous 'Shy Tory factor', individuals who would tell pollsters they wouldn't be voting Conservative because they were embarrassed about being Conservative, but still voting Conservative when the time came.
4 of the past 17 elections have had Labour ahead less than a week before the election only for Labour to then go a lose. A ratio of around 24%. This is why even 20+ points ahead in the polls Kier Starmer doesn't seem to be taking any chances, Labour have been here before.
Incorrect, The 1992 exit poll had the CONSERVATIVES as the largest party (short by 24), there was a range on the forecast, But the Tories were expected to win more seats than Labour according to the exit poll.
You also are wrong about 1959, The Tories actually were expected to win according to the polls, Out of the final 7 polls before the vote on Oct 8th, Labour only led 1 of them, And it was by 1%, way too close, and the Tories probably would still have won a majority under that scenario due to the fact they are usually stronger in the constituencies. Labour won the popular vote in 1951 yet lost the election. But yes, The Tories did better than expected in 1959 as the final polling average had them doing around exactly the same as they did in 1955, but they increased their majority instead to around 100.
It's also worth noting there's no reason for poll respondents to be honest - I was involved with polling at university which was obviously and very badly wrong because one response seemed humorous. People marked the funny response rather than the accurate one.
You really are desperate to see the Tories win, aren't you.
I'm not complacent here as a week is a long time in politics but I hope Labour wins.
True, but the Tory and it's press machine will make a difference. Especially when the GE comes. They have the recourses not only with the press but Russian interference that the tories brushed under the carpet.
@@BoyeeSmudger Every press machine will try and convince people to vote for right wing economic policies, so that they keep getting free funding
Vote for the conservatives
@@c.f.okonta8815 Why?
@@c.f.okonta8815 Have you been living under a rock for 15 years?
If you really want to know, look at the bookies' odds (and be careful which polls you look at). Campaigning is going to have a huge impact as always and that's not really ramped up yet. That being said, these Tories are about as popular as a fart in a lift.
There's also the factor of WHY people are saying they'll vote labour right now rather than tory. Let's compare it to 97 for the millionth time (sorry but i have to): people voted labour because of BOTH tony blair and to get rid of the tories after 18 years. blair had a massive personality about him that caught on with voters, and made sure that his lead was maintained through to polling day. contrast that to now, where all the noise is around how useless the tories are, but there's no real praise for starmer or labour as a whole. i guess what i'm trying to say is that as we get closer to election day, there's going to be regular tory voters who will still vote tory because the labour proposition isn't that memorable or attractive (while it might be better, it's not eye-catching enough to make people revert from their comfort zone of voting tory). the polls are going to narrow a LOT in my opinion, and starmer's not got any chance of winning 450+ seats as the polls say he will right now, i think it will be around 370-380, so what boris won in 2019. but the advantage for starmer i guess is that while his vote share might not be that massive compared to blair, sunak won't be able to rescue votes from the lib dems or reform uk, and i can genuinely see a situation where reform pick up a seat or two and the lib dems get themselves up to around 35-40.
I agree . I have seen some outlandish polling which even predicted that Sunak would lose his very rural and fairly well off seat in north Yorkshire , to Labour . That just aint going to happen.
Are people saying they will switch from Conservative to Labour though? Bye elections showed no swings to Labour and simply the Conservatives vote dropping off a cliff
I am Australian, it was a 2 point lead (which narrowed in the final week), but yes it came as a surprise to most.
No the pols are not wrong the Tories messed up big time when they shoved out boris there should of been an election it wasnt for them to decide who should run our country our country being run by an accountant wasnt what people voted for the Tories going into an election being run by rishi will be lucky to get a seat
The polls might be wrong, Labour could be 30 points ahead of the tories
Perhaps its time for change in Britain. While conservatives in Britain are no where near as crazy and dangerous as U.S conservatives,... Britain has gone through a crazy amount of PMs and has had many downfalls.
The polls weren’t wrong when May called the election in 2017; they accurately reflected public opinion at the time, but public opinion shifted once the election rules kicked in and the media had to start being fair.
A lot hinges on Reform and how much they weaken the Conservative vote as what happened in the Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire by-elections. On the flip side, swing voters and Tory-lite voters willingly moved to Blair in '97 who possessed, at the time, a certain political charisma. Starmer doesn't have that advantage. It will be interesting.
Very little chances for Tories...
If this clown government get in again then there's some serious fiddling going on.
Ah yes, the absolutely lovely comment section of a UA-cam video focusing on important political topics, the star example of human civility, logic, intellect and empathy.
Truly a wondrous sight to behold.
the issue I think is typically (e.g. 2017) there are developing circumstances that could change the outcome in the process of the campaings. But with a country this angry, frustrated and tired of the Tories I find it hard to believe a golden egg will fall into their laps and recover the deficit in opinion.
There is a chance this could be like 2017, but Labour have been ahead since the start of 2022, and since then they've performed brilliantly in the 2022 locals, 2023 locals, Selby & Ainsty, Tamworth, and Mid Beds.
Plus, we have (at least) two by-elections, the locals, and mayorals coming up. This will be the final test of how badly done in the Tories are.
Mid Beds was only won because of a lot of Tories switching to the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems could be very useful in taking a few extra votes off the top of the Tories piles to push Labour over the line.
Good point. Multiple smaller elections are a very good test of public mood.
@@tyranitararmaldoif that's the case then it shows Labour not gaining votes share and simply Tories vote share dropping
I'm surprised they didn't mention the 2016 polls for Trump/Clinton
They only mention the past parlimentary system election example, not presidential election
@francisko4932 still an example of polls being wholly incorrect
Well
The polls mostly Just ask singular voters about their voting intentions, don't they? Don't forget: Clinton won the popular vote in '16. So the polls weren't wrong as much as failing to take into account the absolutely retarded voting system that is the Electoral College
@@Awfulwriter That's not true, the polls were fairly accurate in 2016. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote, she just lost the electoral college. Polls generally weren't measuring for that.
Hillary won the popular vote, which was expected.
Well, this is a terrifying concept.
You didn't even consider people deliberately giving dishonest information?
I think as well the polls lump every voter for that party into one graph. Being able to break it down to constituency to see how it breaks down into seats would be far more accurate and more representative. After all, you will not win the election if your entire voter base is in London and all the other parties mop up in Scotland, Wales and the rest of England. Comparing Labour and Tories to predict the outcome in Scotland or even worse, northern Ireland is completely irrelevant
True that's why Labour's lead will extrapolate to the Conservatives having fewer than 100 seats due to FPTP and tactical voting
@@SlowhandGreg Very much so! It doesn't matter if Conservatives are the second most popular party if they can't get the concentration of voters to turn into seats. UKIP have been an example of a party that polled quite well but never converted it into any seats
With what's happened to the SNP lately, Scotland might end up a lot closer to English results this time around...
Well said , at the last GE in 2019 Labour won big in London and some other big cities and the Tory vote was decimated comparatively . But 30 seats with majorities of more than 25,000 count for nothing under FPTP . The problem was they bombed in many of the areas they used to win big in .
@@user-tz4pb6qz7k why not apply to the whole population? There should be no barriers to voting and it should be open to all.
Why not exclude other groups too on the basis they think differently and have different priorities. Since voting was directly tied to military service should only serving army members be allowed to vote? How about only people with a certain IQ can vote?
You sound like one of those Yankee Republicans, "The vote didn't go my way so how can I find a way to exclude as many people I don't agree with?" Your idea is brain dead at best and dangerous at worst.
Labour's biggest asset are the Torry voters, who are tired of this government and will stay home.
Labour's biggest worry are the "don't know" voters who can't bring themselves to answer "Conservative" to the pollster but will vote for the Tories on election day.
Both groups are among the hardest to predict because their actions can be swayed by the smallest things, including the weather, until the last hour.
In Australia the polls excluded those who said they didn’t know who they support, which was about 10%. Turned out most of those who were unsure stuck with the incumbent LNP.
yeah, I reckon so, probably
What does it matter - those parties and their leaders are literally indistinguishable
I don't think that's true this time around. Yes, Labour are probably right of centre in historical terms, but the Tories are flirting with actual fascism. Some of their attempted laws undermine the foundations of British democracy and freedom. I honestly don't believe Labour would do that. Sadly they're a bit quiet on repealing some of them.
So wasting 1/2 a billion on Rwanda is indistinguishable from providing school meals
An 8 billion tax cut for Bankers is indistinguishable from funding public sector pay in the health services
Give your head a wobble
@@SlowhandGreghow exactly are Labour going to be funding that stuff if they ain't going to tax or borrow?
in all fairness if after almost 15y, you are not capable to look back and see how bad the country is today compare to the first few year of Tory.
you are the problem.
Labour and Green Party should be the new trend amd we should give them the chance, Tory had 15y of power and we can tell the last 5y have been a disaster
The seeds of thit disaster where Osborne and Cameron
Austerity shrank the economy and not regulating the gig economy and banning zero hour fueled low pay migration and the rise of UKIP
Thank you TLDR
Dont forget those shy tories !
The idea of a democracy is that one is voted in and have a go at governing the country. At the next election you get a chance to decide whether they’ve made a good job of it. If they haven’t , the other lot get a go. The Tories have been a disaster. If they somehow manage to worm their way back in it would continue the disaster. It’s Labours turn.
There is the complexity of the 70% Tory press. People believe what they read, even if they say they don't. And when you're told every single day Labour are out to take your money, you end up believing it. Actually the Tories tax more than Labour over the last 70 years
@@danellis-jones1591 Labour didn’t have covid/furlough to deal with, and that doesn’t mean Labour won’t continue with high taxation.
@@hughjohns9110 I couldn't say either way. Just pointing out that Labour isn't the party of high taxation. It's a fallacy. But the UK accounts are dismal. If I was PM I'd put a 2% tax on EVERY transaction, every transaction in the city, every transaction everywhere for 2 years. And the proceeds go directly to paying down debt. And the savings in interest payments go directly to the NHS.
@@danellis-jones1591 but saying the Tories taxed higher than Labour without providing context or explanation makes it just a meaningless soundbyte.
@@hughjohns9110 I could link to articles that show analysis, but I'm busy making dinner.
My original point is that just because Labour get in doesn't mean taxes go up. Saying these Tories are red Tories is a misunderstanding of Labour's economic history
We need to protest vote, it's not a waste, it shows the politicians you are available as a voter and willing to show up but will not play their game of voting for this duopoly any more, I don't agree with much of what the greens or any other 3rd party at present for that matter are about but voting for smaller parties is essential to change things, doesn't mean they'll get any power, but it shows others that other options are a possibility. No more 'lesser of two evils'
And the major parties will be much more likely to introduce ranked choice voting if they see voters are moving towards minor parties and their majorities shrink. Though on the other hand this would make them much less likely to introduce proportional representation.
Not protest vote, just vote third party. It’s a parliamentary system, so coalitions can be formed.
No one has ever polled me.
I can just imagine David Cameron watching this and saying “we can Cameron back from this rishi” only to be met by a disappointed Sunak regretting his life choices
The video completely missed the point: it is not Labour whose vote share is overstated it is specifically center-left or "moderate" Labour who under-perform generally. Moderates don't motivate the base and have trouble getting the vote out on election day. Corbyn massively overpeformed the polls in 2015, Milliband, Blair and Kinnock generally under-performed their predicted vote share significantly.
FPTP makes UK election predictions a bit of a gamble.
FPTP is ancient and not very democratic.
It's anti-majoritarian, but I don't think that makes it inherently anti-democratic. I think FPTP's biggest plus is that it tends to deliver a one-party majority government, instead of having to form a majority after the fact without voter input.
@@lllluka Imo what you call a plus is a huge disadvantage to me.
In the UK 43% of the votes resulted in an 80 seat majority in parliament that totally discarded and left powerless the other 57% of the votes.
In a proportional representation system, parties will have to compromise to form a government and to pass laws through parliament, doing justice to a majority of the voters (not a minority).
Another advantage of PR is that coalition parties will hold each other to account avoiding scandalous behaviour we’ve seen in the UK on an almost unimaginable scale over the past years.
@@Conservator. 1. I do think that FPTP works better with a more "pure" two-party system (eg. the US or some Caribbean countries).
2. I don't think compromise is necessarily good when it results in horse trading. I live in Finland, and PS (the main right-wing populist party) basically got their immigration agenda through into the coalition deal even though the vast majority of people didn't vote for them.
3. I do sort of agree with the last point, but I do have a good counter example looking at Finland again: PS had a bunch of racism scandals last year you might have heard of. But instead of their coalition partners condemning them and holding them to account, they basically downplayed the incidents and came out with a wishy-washy statement condemning racism in general in order to salvage the government.
@@lllluka Ok, interesting to hear your thoughts on this. Thanks for your explanation!
I could give a few examples where FPTP has spiralled out of control, the UK and the US for instance.
Populism is a problem in both systems and a threat to democracy. Social media that amplify extreme messages to retain viewers as long as possible to sell more adds have made things considerably worse lately.
I’m in the Netherlands where the populists have won the elections too but they don’t have a majority (thank god).
It’s up to the other parties to either not form a coalition with them (which I would prefer) or to keep them under control as much as possible.
Imagine such a party would get a majority Parliament. See the US House of Representatives for that.
@@Conservator. I'm actually half-Dutch myself, and the one consistent criticism I hear about the Dutch system is that there are too many parties so forming a government is becoming impossible. I remember there being a poll (I think it was from ÉénVandaag) according to which an overwhelming majority would support a higher threshold than the current one. I don't like official thresholds, so I'd rather have MPs elected by province (with Caribbean NL treated as a province). It wouldn't make the system more complex than it is currently, and it would also help with Omtzigt's concern that certain (rural) parts of the country are ignored.
Another reform I'd be in favor of: D66 says in their 2023 election program that they're for a directly elected prime minister. They don't really flesh out this idea, but to me it seems impossible to conclude that it would NOT mean moving to a more presidential system, which I would prefer.
I think the Republicans' descent into MAGA World is more of an effect of just how popular Trump himself is among Republicans, and that Republicans are currently the party that benefits from the anti-majoritarian aspects of the system. Some say he is testament to the utter failing of the American system, but I don't agree. I do think the US should adopt some reforms that would not only be good but also help curb the power of someone like Trump (like expanding the size of the House, independent redistricting in every state, getting rid of the filibuster, getting rid of the electoral college, making more use of the Louisiana primary system, and making the constitution a bit easier to amend so the country wouldn't have to rely on SCOTUS so much), but I wouldn't throw the baby out with the bath water. I still think the core principles of American government like the presidential system, bicameralism, federalism and constitutionalism are valuable and should be conserved.
Yes people wil change there minds as it goes but something that i think ive said before on your channel it comes down to how many people are voting in these poll and who is voting
2:35 "something completely else happened"
first time I hear this expression
Campaigning season also has to be taken into consideration. A lot can change about the image of a party during that period.
2017 is a great example as, due to it occurring early on into his tenure, it was really only the campaign that allowed us to see what a "Corbyn Britain" would look like, and that was more appealing to the electorate than a failed party.
Why do brits get even mildly involved in this? Both parties are shilling for the WEF. Do a video on that.
d7253 are the plandemic and the climate ruse big enough examples of how the selected representatives enact the work of the WEF. Not to mention the trans agenda, 15 minute cities, surveillance increases, move towards cbdcs
REFORM UK 🇬🇧 total change whats needed Let get rid of the corruption
Anything is possible, but complacency is the biggest risk
Considering the Tories lost a 20 point lead in 2017 and we got a hung parliament just imagine how far they could go down this time with a similar campaign - below the Liberal Democrats and into 3rd is more than possible.
Best think that one through again. Oh wait @@Besthinktwice
As a card-carrying conservative, I'm going to vote Labour in the next election. I honestly believe Labour is more conservative than the Tories. It's absolutely outrageous that a "conservative" government imposes such a debilitating amount of tax. I invested in property in 2013 and sold in 2022 at the height. I paid so much tax I only broke even.
I get thinking the tories aren't conservative. they aren't. But why you think labour are any better in that regard is beyond me
At least when Labour taxes you, you know they're actually planning to spend it on things that they believe are good for the public. The Tories will tax you just as much, line their donors' pockets, then tell you there 'isn't enough money for the NHS'. You're gonna get taxed either way, make it at least good for something!
Why do you continue to vote for the same 2 parties? Have you not learned yet that they're both two sides of the same coin?
@@jamesgtmoore Have you still not learned how first past the post works?
The current lot are as Conservative as they come
Cutting services and investment depressing wages in the professional sectors to pay for mythical growth inducing tax cuts long-term creates an ever increasing spiral of immigration to paper over the cracks and rising taxation on the middle working professional class to fund the failed trickle down giveaways.
There's no assets left to strip no oil money no housing left to give away to bribe people
Thatcherism at its deluded finest
Labour probably are ahead, but it’s going to be closer than they think it will be.
I've been polled and told them wrong as I want it to be the real vote that counts.
The fact that anyone at all still votes Tory is a joke
This statement represents the problem with the polls. The popular media and their acolytes wish to shame the other side into political correctness without hearing them out. Many people who are happy to vote conservative don't want to hear the crap from the other side, so they don't talk about it, even to pollsters. This is a prevalent notion in the UK, the US, and Canada.
I think that the Tories will lose the next election but I don't think that Labour will get a massive majority.
same: it feels like there's a LOT of people who are still very undecided (mostly regular tory voters) about who they're going to vote for, and i rather get the feeling that more of those people will vote tory than labour because they simply don't believe in the labour project that much (compared to 97), although that being said i think lots of those tory voters will shift to reform or lib dem, so i can still see a world where the tories only get around 120-130 seats, even if labour don't get 400+
My vote is going to Reform UK. Say what you will but I for one wouldn't give either of these clowns my vote.
Labour are certainly doing their best to make sure they don't win a big majority.
I think tories will vine
@@Harassed247the extreme far right party that is even too far right for the current far right Tories? Yikes
When it comes to the crunch I will need to hold my nose whoever I vote for, so despite over 40 years of consistency I may surprise myself.
Polls are done in Islington and Liverpool and job centres 😂
Labour were regularly 15 to 20 points ahead in 1990 and 1991. The Tories won in 1992 with about 20 seat majority.
There is no chance of the Tories getting back in labour has 43% of the vote the Tories 25% lib Dems 11% and reform UK have 10% no where near any if the reel competition
I would hope so
Polls - I tend to ignore , it’s putting that little X in the right box that’s important and mine is going for neither Tory or labour
yay the red tories are marginally beating the tory tories
Remember kids; stopping your grandparents from voting is your civic duty at this point.
Remember kids; giving democracy a middle finger is your civic duty at this point
So many people have zero interest in Labour winning, and for myriad extremely good reasons. They only have an interest in Tories not winning, but thats an incredibly unstable way to win anything. The Tories just have to appear less than totally incompetent for a couple of months and things could swing back, or many of the people who appear to be voting Labour are too apathetic about the frankly dire options and never show up.
I myself am an example of this: Personally, I think the optimal outcome is that the Tories are given the boot but that Labour win with a humiliatingly tight margin, enough that they require a coalition. Though Im inclined not to gamble and just vote the better of two god awful options, given Labour at least appear so far ahead it seems quite realistic that I could improve the chances of that outcome by voting third party or not voting at all. What I ultimately decide remains in flux.
It`s the question they are asked too.
I have two friends which are left leaning labour and a socialist. Both have stated to me they cannot bring themselves to vote for Starmer after what he did to Corbyn. Both will abstain in the next election. I wonder how many other life long voters of Labour feel and will do the same.
Most people aren't that petty or childish, to be fair.
Many feel this way. My issues with Starmer have less to do with Corbyn and more to do with his spinelessness, flip flopping and his peddling of right wing rhetoric to earn him conservative swing votes, but still, there’s no way I would vote for Starmer, and I know tonnes of left leaning people who feel the same way
It isn't about pettiness. It's about willingness to vote for a party that doesn't share your values. It is appalling to me that Labour can presume to have the votes of the socially democratic while espousing none of its tenets. Labour have done nothing to win my vote other than being "not Tory". I'm still very much undecided on how to proceed. That isn't my not any other left leaning voter's fault. Starmer is a scab. Dress it up however you like. Don't blame voters.
@@gregoryfenn1462yes it's petty and childish to have standards
Labour will win...will it actually improve your average persons life..not a chance.
Bs. You have a short memory
@@nicks4934 bet you anything that in about 10-12 years everyone will be saying, Christ get this useless shower out of office, and they will once again be looking to vote in the Tories.
@@kevinheath7588Vote Reform UK
@@nicks4934ok elaborate
VOTE REORM
Were you scraping about trying to find a subject for today’s video? 😂
If the Tories won.... what would they do? They don't appear to be doing anything worthwhile at the moment. Would they just fight amongst each other about what a woman is or where to house immigrants instead of processing claims?
If the conservatives win, it would be an absolute embarrassment and show just how right wing biased our media is.
I want my friends to think I'm willing to go against my best interests.
What's with jumping in, out, in out?
Vote Reform UK
Free ponies for everyone! Bigots get two ponies each!
Please people vote reform UK party.
No.
I think we can all agree that it would be pretty crazy if that happened.
YES..👍👍👍
He/him really? 🤦
A blog on the Corbyn Party, if indeed he creates a new party as is rumoured, would be great as it may well take a big chunk of traditional ‘left-wing’ Labour voters, as could Reform in the case of the 2019 ‘Red Wall’ voters.
Corbyn has no interest in being a leader again
It's reached the point where you hardly need polls. Whether in the pub, at work, on a bus, a queue etc the Tories are universally despised.
As for now, the most likely outcome is: Yes, Starmer will win the election, but it won't be an overwhelming victory compared to Blair's 1997 win.