Can Space Joker Ever Be Good?
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- Опубліковано 3 тра 2024
- About Balatro:
Balatro is a deck-building roguelite where you must play poker hands and earn chips to defeat enemy blinds. Enhance your deck of playing cards, buy Jokers to modify each hand you play, and discover new and wild synergies to win!
Try it out here: store.steampowered.com/app/23...
Links - wlo.link/@skoottie
#skoottie #strategy - Ігри
where was "opps all 6's" this entire fucking run
In the end, space joker had exactly 1 in 4 chance to hit (32 out of 128)
as inconsistent as it seemed, it is true to the label.
I have all the hits and misses tallied below;
2/10 at 4:36
5/19 at 6:15
7/31 at 8:30
8/40 at 11:02
9/46 at 11:56
11/49 at 12:24
12/52 at 12:54
13/55 at 13:25
14/61 at 15:23
15/70 at 18:10
16/73 at 19:05
18/76 at 20:04
19/82 at 21:23
20/85 at 23:30
21/88 at 24:30
22/91 at 25:05
23/97 at 26:10
25/100 at 26:55
26/103 at 27:55
27/106 at 28:34
27/108 at 29:15
28/112 at 30:50
29/116 at 33:10
30/122 at 35:00
32/126 at 35:35
32/128, final hand/total
Damn, awesome write up! Nice. Blahaj putting in work
Wow. It definitely did not feel like 1/4. Good work counting!
wow that simplifies to exactly 1/4
Skoottie constantly forgetting that he has negative jokers and compulsively selling them first rather than just attempting to buy them is always funny. Infuriating, but also funny.
I've sold negative jokers to make space so many times, never fails to make me laugh when I absolutely throw a run by just getting rid of an essentially free joker and seeing no improvement whatsoever
I pull a skootie so often it just makes me happy bc it means someone else does it too
damn, I don't believe it. I tallied up every time space joker could have hit and did hit and you had 128 opportunities... and it hit 32 times. exactly 1/4.
honestly it's too perfect so I think I must have missed a tally or two but no matter what, your rng was close to perfect.
i did as well, you got it right!
@@Blahaj_Gaming847hell yeah, thanks fo verifying
AcTuALlY the precise 1/4 is the most likely count to observe with an event of probability 1/4
Well something to mention is 3 (1/4) chances is NOT the same as 1 (3/4) chance, and the game really demonstrates it painfully so
Yup. It's not a 75% chance. It's < 58% chance for a single hit
chance of 1 failure = 3/4
chance of 3 failures = 3/4 * 3/4 * 3/4 = 42.2%
from a simple math that i have no prove of, it would be at max 50% chance
1/4 fail
then goes to the second one with the same chance but because they're identical
it goes to
1/3 chance
the third one would make it 1/2
no idea how my brain come up with that
@@skywatcher458That's sadly not how it works:
- chance of none hitting: 27/64
- chance of one hitting (first, second or third): 3 * 9/16 * 1/4 = 27/64
- chance of two hitting: 3 * 3/4 * 1/16 = 9/64
- chance of all three hitting: 1/64
On average you will only get 3/4 times the number of rounds
@@manguy01 this is correct but you’re not accounting for the chance of multiple hits since technically there is a chance for 2 or 3 hits as well increasing the overall percentage of hand to hit ratio. Over a large enough sample size, you would still expect 3/4ths of his total hands played to be upgraded.
Let's go, the introduction is back
You have to love how right at the end the space jokers wake up on the high card
To me, Space Joker is only worth it when playing lots of hands. It goes really well with Burgler on a high card build because it has a lot more chances to hit.
I'll take it for an ante or so cause one hit pays for itself if you factor in the sell price. Its a 'i dont have anything better' or a 'my food joker is about to expire anyway' joker.
he talked to us this time
jst for posterity, if youd actually gotten 5 space jokers, the odds of AT LEAST 1 of them hitting wouldve been 781/1024 or approx. 76.27% chance. buried in that probability is also all the chances of more than one hitting at the same time
I swear they messed up the probability calculations in this game. The lack of space joker hitting this run was just too unlikely.
EDIT: I guess I was wrong. A bunch of people tallied it and it seems like it was perfectly 1/4! Sure didn't feel like it!
Maybe is just true random and not the "random" that almost every game uses that prevent situation like this
I’d be interested in whether Space Joker has a 100% hit rate if you have two copies of Oops All 6’s. It would be a good way to test whether it actually works the way the card is written
@@joshuadee7423 I can confirm this is the case. Had a run with 2 oops and a space joker, and it hit every hand I played :)
@@leonardoquinonez1157i don’t know much about computers but i thought true random wasn’t possible
@@magnusculley6817 It's random enough. When we say true random exists we only mean that we live in a deterministic universe so technically nothing is true random unless you have a machine that gives you an output from a quantum measurement. I think there was a website or something that would give you a true random 50/50. But pseudo randomness for almost all purposes is more than good enough to never be noticed.
But what the commenters meant is that in some games, if you have a 50/50 to succeed, if you roll several times but don't succeed it will slowly increase your chance of succeeding until you succeed, and will then reset to its initial probability.
I love Space Joker, but I wouldn't use it with a Flush deck.
Someone check my math here, but at 9:07 the odds of that happening are about 0.8%
Space Jokers not hitting three times = (3/4)^3
Bloodstones not hitting five times = (1/2)^5
Luckies not hitting +20 mult two times = (4/5)^2
Luckies not hitting +$20 two times = (19/20)^2
All of the above happening = ((3/4)^3)*((1/2)^5)*((4/5)^2)*((19/20)^2) ~ 0.0076 (or ~0.8%)
"1 in 4"
yeah, ok. at 28:35 it hits when he plays the high card though! hahaha
When it comes to flushes, I believe you went 28 for 110 on Space Joker. Using an online calculator, this is slightly above odds (27.5 for 110), and you had a 69.15% chance of getting fewer Space Joker procs.
Should try this on purple or orange steak, I wonder if that makes the space Joker eternal in which case you can keep copying it over and over
If there could be an overwolf tracker for balatro like og hearthstone had. With the odds.
Space Man + Brainstorm is a Galaxy Brain move
Try that seed again going high card?
i am tired of the space joker slander 😤
discord comments be like "square joker is rectangle shaped, literally unplayable"
Yeah, Space Joker should probably be upgraded to 1/3
Space joker hits less than $20 from a lucky
Has anyone actually sat down and graphed like 1000 or so Space Joker pulls? Theres just no way this is 1/4
Id say It is, ive had runs with It upgrading 90% of the time, i think its just pure random
@@ivancardemas5810 Yeah I have had good luck and bad luck too, but I'd LOVE to see the actual data.
I just tallied up this specific run, so not 1000 pulls, but this run was just about perfect, if not actually perfect.
space had 128 opportunities to hit and did hit 32 times, which is a perfect 1/4. it is honestly too perfect, so I wonder if I missed a tally or something, but no matter what this particular run was damn close to perfect.
as humans, we are bad at estimating probability.
@@1TieDye1 Thats rad actually, thank you for tallying that up. What emotion-driven creatures we are lol
I mean if you calculate the odds for even one of them to hit if you have 3 it comes out to ~53% so none of them hitting this often kind of makes sense
Space Joker will forever be a cope joker. They'd have to make him 1 in 3
The answer is no. Or at best “once in a while”.
17:39
Sold sock and buskin going for lucky cards :’(
17:40 ñ
Just had a very similar run space joker first shop spectral off the next skip double space joker decided to work on high card for more opportunities to level with space joker skipped for a rare got burning joker was off to the races from there later found blue print and brain blast a bit of joker manipulation to get multiple burning joker levels then multiple chances for space fun run
I refuse to finish this video. So many bad decisions made along the way. They just kept tallying up and I can’t. It’s beyond frustrating.
@skoottie brother I am a big fan of your content but really dislike the fart sound of new subs :[ any chance youd change it? Thanks
Should've sold baseball instead of smeared