These Odds Are Terrible!
Вставка
- Опубліковано 28 вер 2024
- Is this loot box website just as scummy and scammy as it once was?
SPONSOR: Check out the Viewsonic XG270 on Amazon (geni.us/mh01aG) and Newegg (bit.ly/2OWowCw).
▶ Become a channel member: bit.ly/2JsHRqO
▶ Support me on Floatplane: bit.ly/2zqiHFj
▶ My Amazon storefront: amzn.to/2PMpWPa
▶ My studio gear on Amazon:
Sony A7 III (Primary): geni.us/VNQk
Sony A7S II (Secondary): geni.us/nGAGx
2x Pixio PX275h IPS Monitors: geni.us/MJISRP0
Neewer LED Lighting Kit: geni.us/9VTXr0
Audio-Technica AT2035: geni.us/xvQc
Yamaha MG10XU Mixer: geni.us/d4VvGM
Neewer Microphone Arms: geni.us/1w5Sx2Y
Tribesigns L-Shaped Computer Desks: geni.us/ZMHUcU
Arrowzoom Sound-Damping Foam Panels: geni.us/EKFxZc
▶ Follow me on social media:
TWITCH: / gregsalazar
FACEBOOK: / gregsalazaryt
TWITTER: / gregsalazaryt
INSTAGRAM: / gregsalazaryt
▶ Join our public Discord server: / discord
Consider subscribing!
DISCLOSURES: All Genius links are tied to our Amazon Associate account, from which we earn a small sales commission. Links containing a 'bit.ly' reference forwarding to Newegg are tied to our CJ account, from which we earn a small sales commission. All sponsored links and comments will contain the word "SPONSOR" or "AD." Any additional revenue stream will be disclosed with similar verbiage.
#LootBox #Scam
A few viewers brought up the resale factor as a way to bring down EV for a particular box, however, accounting for it mathematically would have opened up a can of worms far too complicated to navigate in a video of this stature. You'd need to make assumptions about _how many_ items are refunded and how many are kept. For these EV calculations, I assumed all items would be kept. I could have walked away with every single item I won and continued to play with my remaining balance. Of course HypeDrop's gonna give you a fraction of your earnings back if you decide to sell - and that's another way to "print money" as a commenter put it - but this factor is secondary to the EV of the box at the start of each roll (because, again, you can walk away at any time and keep every prize won). You could argue that it's a worst-case assumption (and I'll give ya that), but it beats accounting for the decision to "keep" or "sell" every item won.
Also, if I was HypeDrop, I'd skew the odds in such a way that I wouldn't need to assume all players resell won items. Eliminate all uncertainty. Hence why I focused on the deals they're likely making for ultra-cheap game keys.
Why no link to the first video in the description? We can't start the series on part 2 that's blasphemous.
It's in a card literally in the beginning of the video. But I can also include it in the description if that'll make it easier. Either way, you could watch this video without seeing the first and still be in the loop :-)
Greg Salazar a friend of mine was addicted to hypedrop, he once got a good gpu (i think it was a 1660 or something i forgot) then he wanted to get it obviously then they said that it was out of stock and they emailed him that he would get 400 store credit and no gpu. He was dumb and accepted it but obviously he started getting game keys and then he quit.
I wonder if selling back an item at a net gain to you results in worse outcomes on future purchases. This way they give you a seemingly good deal, but then you get flagged and put on a loser list. It happens on some casino games on mobile. Makes sense.
If they're affiliated with G2A, as one would conclude with G2A pay as a payment option, the easiest place to look into for your discrepancy is the keys (especially considering they are the highest probability items). G2A are selling many of these keys below the stated $5 cost as you already noted, but G2A either 1) paid less for those keys and thus the cost is still lower than their market value or 2) are using this as a way to rid themselves of as many of these game keys that aren't selling as possible. Like you said inventory sitting on shelves isn't ideal, a game key already owned but that isn't moving due to loss of popularity or whatever is pure loss if it is never sold, even if they're not directly affiliated this could make for a great bulk discount.
Any sell-backs for items at a lower cost than the original box are also pure profit, if you pay $5 for the loot box and sell back a key for 69 cents that's $4.31 profit, and what honestly are you gonna do with 7 keys of superhot? Plus we can look at other sell back items like the coolers some as noted are platform specific, and therefor will probably never be taken by someone who has the other platform, intel and AMD specific coolers thus would become a great fit for cheaper boxes and any platform specific box would have to increase in price, intel still holds more market share so one would think AMD coolers would be easier to make money on but perhaps there just aren't as many low cost options.
IDK
Random Person: Rolls for i9-9980XE
and lands on it.
HypeBox: Oops. 504 Gateway Timeout error
Random Person: Wait, what? WTF?
HypeBox: We're sorry, heres a game key for the inconvenience.
Your PCMD It wouldn't happen anyways these sites don't have odds, just rigged.
@@GanDtech this does happen. maybe this website is different, but i can tell you i was playing one of those pop a ball poker games. 1st pop hit something like A,K,Q,J and another jack. leaving me just the 10 off a royal flush. so i "lock" in the 4 and repop trying for the 10. and would you believe i got it! I jumped out of my chair being that i just won something like 10k tickets. then the machine said error unable to find the ball.... but it was not the 10 ball i had just poped, it was the Jack that had been locked in from the round before, yet the game knew where it was then. I called the manger over pissed off and all he said was i could not prove i got the royal flush and offered 100tickets for my time. and by the time the manger got there the machine had gone in to demo mode and had repoped all of the balls so there where not sitting in the now 4 out 5 royal flush.
The website determines what you win the split second you hit enter, meaning you have already lost before you even know it, if you were to land on a top prise the website server should already know what it is and should have saved the result, if not then this is very VERY bad design.
But as stated in this video, the odds of winning that price are nearly zero, and to me they ARE zero since the prise never existed, to me these sites are rigged so yeah.
i see RuneScape i upvote 👍
LOL
Thats why i cliked on this video
Greg probably doesn't even know what RS is.
Not a btw btw
Only reason I tapped on this video
The house always wins. Even when they lose, they win.
Still better chance than getting a knife in csgo. Lol
Doubt, Valve can generate 10000 knifes for literally free and they have to actually pay for this stuff ;) Doesn't matter, both are scam.
How to get knife in csgo with minimum investment/mostly free atcost of playtime:
1)Buy the prime status for drops (if you haven't bought it already).
2) Check the csgo update/csgo discussion forum for any new update with csgo cases.
3) Play csgo regularly until you get your 2-3 weekly cases drop and hope you get the new case.
4) Sell any new case and keep the old cases worth 0,03 $.
5) Sell any old cases when they go up in price and you're confident they won't go up anymore.
6) After a year or so if you have played regularly you should be able to put an order on the market (or maybe straight up buy) for the cheapest and crappiest knife ,probably a navaja.
Not really, I unboxed a $1300 knife the other day
I've spent around $2,000 in cs keys (i've checked on steam)
I've unboxed
ST Flip Fade FN
Karambit marble fade FN max fire/ice with a perfect corner - still by far my most insane pull
Karambit ultra violet FT
Flip marble fade FN
Karambit damascus steel FT
Classic knife crimson web FT
Handwrap overprints MW
and now a skeleton knife crimson web FT ($1200-1300 i was talking about) recorded that one too.
I believe unboxing a knife is around 1/400ish) so .25
Not really that insane if you think about it.
@@iZaners good for you then. Not everyone has that luck. 🤣
@@vnkt_yt #realstories
So they go from an F to a D- ?? An attempt was made to be more forthcoming, but they can't escape the scammy nature of their business model.
Renting pc parts and now tech loot boxes. The ridiculous stuff I keep finding out thanks to this channel. lol
I love how, without fail, the item to the very left or right of your item was always worth several hundred or even thousands of dollars.
Thats exactly how they get you, the spins are rigged so that happens and you think you almost won big so you play again.
Cant wait on 3080ti!
Wait..
Like the lottery, it's another tax on those who failed math...
It's no less stupid than alcohol, or smoking, or fast food, or countless things we all waste money on. What Kind of empty sanitised life do you live where you don't "waste" money on silly things occasionally.
@@wyterabitt2149 I am sorry you failed math...
@@BornYooper The cry of the uneducated. It's like hearing the flat Earthers shouting "scientific method" like a brain damaged tourettes sufferer. You're in good company.
So it is rational to spend money on something where your expected return is less than your cost?
EuclideanPrime Numbers
The EXPECTED return is NOT more than the cost. The expected return value accounts for probability, the Fair EV as presented in this video. This lack of accounting for statistics goes back to what the OP is saying.
With that said, the POSSIBLE return is higher than the cost. And, some people get a rush from that and “playing the odds.” They know the odds and play for being one of the lucky players.
RuneScape is mentioned in perfect context
Swath of RS comments ensues
3:29 he air quoted so hard his fingers disappeared from reality.
My son worked at BestBuy years ago, his employee discount was 10% over cost. That said, the $50 gold plated monster USB cables cost him like $3 after the discount. Getting quotes on comparable items, like a 32" TV showed vastly different discounts per model and per manufacturer. My buddy owns a 12v online store and he drop ships almost everything. He pretty easily gets at least a 25% discount from the organizations and manufacturers, and doesn't do any of the work (they drop ship). He does buy inventory, but usually lost cost high margin stuff, or repair parts that he needs to ship immediately. Also, manufacturers often want to dump previous generation items, they spend money warehousing them, etc and often just want to get rid of them and places like overstock often buy them dirt cheap. I own a business myself, and there is a often a huge difference between wholesale and retail, but sometimes its only a couple percent. Would you want 2% of a $1000 laptop? Or 20% of $5 cable?
I didn't realize this website existed, but this was a fantastic breakdown and was really interesting, thanks man
C-3PO: Sir, the odds of successfully winning a Core I7 on HypeDrop are approximately 3,247 to one!
Han: Never tell me the odds!
Qualty video - loved every minute of it Greg!!! Thanks
But I only published it 8 minutes ago...
@@GregSalazar True! I am stuck on 3rd minute! Had stuff to do! Now getting back on watching :D
@@OutOfPaceRacing "loved every minute of it" :-(
@@lurick It's Gregs vid - you don't have to be fortune teller to know - first minutes was enough to know :D
@@GregSalazar And I'll stick with it! Great vid - once I sumbled upon hypedrop through facebook ad and I got to tell you I was really tempted to try open boxes but the "too good to be true" look of the web page and advertising put me off and seeing in depth view from your perspective gives me piece that I skipped out on this website :D
If you notice, on a cheap item, it either hits it bang middle, or right at the start or end.
The thing is: No one can prove the odds, therefor they are in no obligation to make those expensive items ever drop, unless you draw from THOUSANDS of draws, at which point they would take notice and simply make a seed to drop it to avoid suspicion, or easier still, make it drop after a certain profit was reached so they can have the ease of mind of "hey look we did give it out that one time!", the ""business"" model is made in such a way that is impossible to prove them wrong, even if you had acess to their "HQ", unless it was a 24/7 surveillence of their actions they will ALWAYS ALWAAAYS win, literally impossible for them to lose unless shut down by a goverment agency.
Also assuming that most people would rather cash their prizes instead of claiming them. A 4.99 value down to $0.69. The profit is there.
Sitting on expensive inventory, jacking up the price and letting it rot on the shelve for years after it is obsolete; is why i have little sympathy for many brick and mortar computer shops struggling. Those idiots clearly do not even have a BA [or a cursory knowledge of business].
Most of the expected value lies in the game keys. There's no way they're paying 6.47 for superhot keys. If you change those prices you will see a huge difference
0:32 when you have 60hz monitor
Greg the re-roll feature likely offsets it. chances are people are winning stuff they dont want and "selling it back"
Aaah maths on a Sunday morning. Life is good. Thanks Greg. Not that's not sarcasm, I really am happy for maths.
This is litterally the real life stuff version of the shady CSGO lootbox sites from a few years ago. looking from the stuff they claim and the 'game mechanics' its even by the same people
THAT 3RD AGE ARMOR JOKE OMG YES
I got third age vambraces once years ago, but they were worthless due to the EoC update, despite their rarity :/.
Ah I've figured something out. The spinner isnt at all representative of the odds. You might think at first that the spinner part is sort of real, just with fewer of the most expensive things on it and more of the less expensive. The spinner doesnt do anything but show you what you got. It's made so that you see the expensive stuff go by and you think you actually had a decent chance of getting it if the spinner wasnt moving quite the same.
Fresh content. Yay :)
EDIT: Those who share this site I bet that their odds are turned up.
There was one CS:GO site that did it but I don't remember it.
I got a gilded 2h, is that good enough?
I have been playing runescape since 2005 not once have I gotten a 3rd age item.
Suddenly I have an urge to go complete a Clue Scroll...
Lol, you must like getting random lawsuits. Keep it up, love your channel!!!!
Anyone who gambles against someone that profits from it and think the odds are in their favor deserve to loose their money. It’s probable that even in a case of a clear win the gambler won’t need it and sell it to gamble some more and loose on the principal of “risk of ruin”, play long enough you are sure to loose. There is probably no warehouse just an Amazon account.
I removed the heat spreaders from my ram but the tape left residue and/or ripped in half , any suggestions on what I can safely use to remove it ?
I have had 2 Third-Age items over the years.
Before the GE came to the game I got a Third-Age Kiteshield and on Juli 18 last year the Third-Age Mage Hat.
Mind you I have completed a ton of clues over the years.
Well actually I got a 3rd age bow on OSRS on my 40th master clue. So are you recommending this site for me?
The 10 dislikes are employees of this scam company 😂
I think that 69 cents you get back for the key is closer to the price they pay than $5.
You should compare the results of the "play for free" option with the play for money.
Was that full Third-age melee set in the thumbnail?
Btw you confused the terms mutually exclusive with statistically independent. If the events were mutually exclusive then one could not happen after the other. Them being independent means P(aNc)=P(a)*P(c). I.e the chance of a does not affect the chance of c :)
Okay, so they're showing odds now. That doesn't mean I trust those to be the actual odds. Without regulations like those placed on casinos, there's no guarantee that they aren't changing the odds every time you play.
Heh. I won't, and haven't, approached loot box websites at all. I'll just buy the things I want. Can't afford it? Time to save up or find _reasonable_ credit (not that crap you showed in a previous video). No gambling like this, ever.
i really wish i could comprehend stats and math... and chemistry... oh and physics...
These odds are worst than getting a SSR in FGO! Not worth.
Hey Greg, love the content, but I'm curious what lens are you filming with?
BRO THE FREAKIN 3rd AGE FROM A CLUE SCROLL HAD ME ROLLINGGGGG. xD
If you have to prove that your scam is fair, then it's not.
They're going to run into trouble with listing values much higher than market. If someone wins that two grand processor and decides to cash in they're losing money because the could buy more than one for their own listed price. That is, assuming someone could win it. Which I very much doubt. Sure. They'll let some big ticket items go after making so much money, avoid losses. Similar to how hotel slot machines are rigged to pay out more to make you want to try the bigger slots in actual casinos.
funny thing is i won a ryzen 7 2700x and said aight im done for today
Basically if you want to use a site like this i offer three better ways to gamble:
- Get piss drunk for 10€, charge your paypal up with 50€ and browse ebay and let yourself surprise with what you ended up with.
- withdraw 50-60€, go to a casino / lottery machine, go all in. If you lose everything, ask in a forum for a dirt rallye key (lol, i think i still got like 3 from different bundles), if you win get the part you wand and need.
- get the part you need for dirt cheap off ebay used condition. chances are it is broken, chances are it is fixable. but 100% of the time you are getting something, and there is a not so bad chance you can actually make it work. take a cpu: worst case, open it up, look at it, clean it with alcohol, clean all the contacts... maybe you repaired it, good job, and you got a 300€ cpu for like 50€. maybe it doesnt. but you wont need to buy like 100 used cpus to assume you can make at least one of them run...
Man put an rs3 guy in thirdage lol
What a scam, I thought Greg was going to risk his 3rd age in pvp
a Runescape mention in the video? instantly gets a thumps up from me
The EV values work because they only loose money if you take what you"win" every time, if 1 out of 100 (approx) people sell back a game code at .69 then they break even, if more than 1 in 100 (again approx I am not going to spend time doing the math) sell anything back they will make money.
those game keys are almost certainly black-market items, most of them obtained by identity theft or resellers (who buy temporarily-free or 75%-reduced keys for pennies).
yeah this is obvious, but too easily overlooked, justifying a video.
they show %, because that is becoming a more and more common legal requirement.
also, for any digital gambling machine, the odds can be changed on the fly.
"sell for 9.2e-13" great formatting guys!
lootbox is gambling
EA is in deep denial
i feel attacked, as im buying stupid shit in my other browser tab.
If I miss a 99% chance shot in XCOM then i won't take a 5 percent for a discount.
3rd age in the thumbnail made me think this was a flipping video lmaooo
My biggest mistake when it comes to spending money is the, around 200 euros that i've spent on trying to get a csgo knife (and this was when i was around the age of 15)
I have a better chance of winning a 9980xe, then I do finding a wife.
Greg, "Gambling doesn't pay". First roll, "Except now". Interesting video. Thx.
i love RuneScape playing it right now while watching
I don't think that's how percentage work
Yeah. It is... You can convert to-and-from decimal form and either divide percent by percent or decimal by decimal.
No the common item should be showing multiple times than the rarer item
on point and damn hilarious right nate?
Me: "I want to stay fair to people and help them to make their lifes a bit better"
also me: "I could have been rich by now if I was less of a nice guy..."
While I have heard of other sites like these, I never heard of these guys until your first video.
It's not just knowing the odds, you don't know if they are just lying to you about the odds.
This isn't much different than gambling of any type, whether it be casino, raffles, or the lottery. The only difference is that those other methods of gambling are regulated, sites like this aren't.
Building a PC from parts from hypedrop?
You might as well tell them to gild your armor in Runescape.
The odds of getting heads when you flip a coin are 50/50? Hmm..VSauce would like to have a chat with you.
The rs skit was 10/10. Thank you for that.
Watching these videos really shows how crazy these sites are.
But in all seriousness I bet your right saying they drop ship expensive items and they could even do that for game Keys. The value could be over 5 and they make the money hoping you keep selling and respinning so they don't have to purchase anything. They could very well buy the keys as you redeem them and save the money there. They might not even ship anything out.
To be honest I was hoping you would keep the first physical win and get them to ship it to see if you actually get it as that would be good proof for if they even attempt to be legit. Maybe if you decide to come back to this you could take that chance if you win a physical item and not just a key.
If there are odds shouldn't that be considered gambling?
It's no gamble to know hypedrop is a bad gamble.
TY for the legendary RS shout out.
I learned something
i give better odds for my death rolling scheme in Ironforge.
EA: I see nothing wrong with this.
At least you can be absolutely sure they don't collect user data and sell it to 3rd party ;)
independant events*, not mutually exclusive, thats another concept.
that was a 3rd Age Kitesheild, tell me i'm not wrong please
Edit: Oh yeah it is
I wouldn't be surprised if the algorithm is set to provide early success. This would encourage the behavior and make them more money in the long run. I don't think it was coincidence that your first "roll" was successful and positive.
I’m not here to be on the other side. But if you don’t have the simple concept of understanding that it’s made to give you something for your money. Well you shouldn’t be using website just like those. Can’t really call it a scam unless they actually take your money without giving you what the advertise in return. Which would be something in a box you open. People call these a scam because you not supposed to make a profit.
shame for selling that noctua cooler for 9 bucks
Keep dropping the honest content!!!
i cant even get ranger boots lol
is that third age Armour from runescape?
Yes. Will make sense if you watch the video.
@@GregSalazar watching rn : )
@@GregSalazar loved it!
Legit only clicked cuz of the third age
@@speedydraw quit runescape youre addicted
So I found this new site called CSGO LOTTO
Don't forget, that everytime someone sells back an item, say a game key for $0.69 from the $4.99 box, the company makes an instant profit of $4.30.
Well.. close enough since these keys are most likely bought in bulk for cheap
I'd say they make more, $50 Roll wins you a $4.99 Key that you sell for $0.69, this means the company made close to $50 and you made nothing at all.
Just spend the money on a McDonalds or something, buy a broken PC, Go to s str*p club or whatever, even setting the money on FIRE is better than using these websites since you may actually get enjoyment from it where as this is just scamming you.
I think your very first roll of the day probably has a higher chance of winning something of higher value to make you think you'll win good stuff often
Then it would be possible to game them by using different IPs and accounts, to let them think you are a new user every time.
The Ryzen box has a good not sucking rating, as long as you expect a cooler, and are not unlucky with hitting that 25% 212 evo the rest of the coolers are valued (on amazon) over $40 with IMO makes it far less risky. you also have a 20% chance on getting something that have a higher then $50 amazon value.
"The more they play, the more they lose. In the end, we get it all" - Robert De Niro - Casino
You don't go near ANY lootboxes as a gamer.
"Anybody in his or her basement can set up one of these sites up, and make a ton of money." Yes, Serbian UA-camr Nixa Zizu and his MagicUnbox site.
Greg now says "Lisa, honey I just gambled away $100"
That was a very serious spreadsheet, wow!
just looking at that $5 gaming on a budget loot box at 1:48 you know its a scam lol. has a picture of a fully build PC in the box.........no way they would let that happen lol
I probably would have accepted the cooler to review it as well as to see how the delivery process went. At least if you hadn't already reviewed the cooler.
cracklingice Probably wouldn't even ship and get in-store credit for the inconvenience 😂
Would that not have added to the impact of the video? (though it'd definitely increase production time substantially)
Reselling stuff for practically free to them will help their margins too.
Also its possibly rigged .
And they might not send the idem at all.
I feel like another way for them to have a higher outcome is by having the knowledge that people will often return items. Especially with those games, I feel like people are likelely to simply 'sell them back' to hypedrop for 65 cents. This means that this specific reward only costs them 65 cents instead of the 5 dollar listed price, assuming almost everyone sell the keys back to them.
Not even just that, I'd bet they got the game keys for under 50 cent a pop as well, meaning they really made $4.31, plus get to sell that same game key to another sap for $4.31...
Humanity intelligence is at an all time low now that loot boxes are creeping everywhere now. 😁