A Pokemon Investing SECRET Explained!
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- Опубліковано 16 лип 2024
- In this video on pokemon card investing, I explain a formula for looking at booster box prices and also future booster box prices.
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Great video, I'm new to sealed collecting so I appreciate all the advice I can gather
Glad to help!
Makes complete sense man! Great work figuring out a formula that somewhat works. Overall, we never truly know the exact rarity of a product.
The interesting questions to me are 1) how to measure scarcity; and 2) is there a better way to determine the intrinsic value that applies in this formula. Starting with the latter.
2) - top chase cards are undoubtedly a big factor in how appreciated the set is. It's the opportunity for a jackpot, so to say, that people chase and collect. But it's not a perfect reflection of the intrinsic value of the pack itself that the cards come from. Pull rates also play a big role. So a set could have worse pull rates with more valuable chase cards, but the packs have less expected value compared to another set which has better pull rates and slightly less valuable chase cards. I might think the chase card's values matter a bit more in this equation, but i wouldn't rule out the pull rate factor completely. Specially if better pull rates makes people like it more and therefore more nostalgic in the future.
1) We are dealing with subjective grades here and are mixing up 2 different scales. Chase cards can be measured in $ amount which is a ratio scale, while ranking 1-10 is on an ordinal scale. You just brought up a few examples but i wonder if you have a more exact approach on what constitutes a 5 instead of a 6, etc? You said even evo skies doesn't go on this scale yet, which is interesting to me as it's out of stock in stores and Pokemon Center and also way up in price. You can get packs through some other products that are still more available though, f.e charizard UPC. Doesn't that fit as the first step up on the scarcity ladder? How does moving up or down on the scale work? Like, is it just number of products that exist worldwide simplified on a 1-10 scale? If so, should it work exponentially starting from 10 and going down to 1?
A sidenote, it's likely also not 100% the scarcity of a set in general, but both scarcity and popularity for a certain product in the set playing a minor role too, like BB's vs ETB's etc.
If you have the time to reflect with me on some of the questions here i would much appreciate. Thanks again for sharing what you've come up with!
Oh definitely mate, heaps at play. Thanks heaps for adding to the topic, was good to read!
Only recently found you man, but I love how real and true you are, not alot of pokemon youtubers do it they way you do keen to keep watching, keep up the good work brother
I appreciate that! Welcome aboard!
I enjoy your content. You're quite different from the majority of other youtubers I've seen with pokemon channels. Its refreshing that you arent all flashy and "in your face" and you bring genuinely good and useful content. I've recently gotten back into pokemon card collecting, and your videos have been my favorite and most helpful. You're very logical and rational, which i appreciate. Keep up the good work, brother.
I appreciate that! Thanks for tuning in!
I started doing some investing about 6 months ago, moving away from sports cards and I watch your videos each day they come out. Love the information!
That is awesome! Thanks mate!
Love the frequency of the videos and the different take in this space! Keep up the good work!
Thanks! Will do!
I appreciate all the digging and data you parse through as always! You and Rudy are my two fav UA-camrs
I appreciate that!
I love how you put so much variety in your video topics.
Glad you like them!
Definitely a great formula that can be applied to all of them. I would add that the popularity of chase card (the Pokémon themselves) is also a huge factor. Evolving skies shot up because of the amount of eeveelution line cards and items. Boring boxes can kill a set.
Agree man!
Like always, fantastic! Love that the topic is different almost every time, keeps your channel exciting! Keep it up my dude 👍🏾 (whispering) : if you made a t shirt with a thumps up and your end quote, i would buy it for sure 👍🏾
Hahahaha love it 😅👌
It’s great to see the different topics you tackle. Awesome video as usual 👍🏻
Glad you like them!
That's a nice, simple way of summing up why box prices are the way they are. Not sure if this is a factor in Pokemon, but when they do reprints of certain cards in other TCGs, the value of the older versions almost always drops and the sealed product is less desirable. Unless the box is extremely scarce, in which case all bets are off!
Agreed mate, nice comment!
Another great video! For modern, future scarcity seems like it might be partially based on how desirable the booster boxes are to open...even though we currently have no idea about the print run. Japanese 151 is fun to open (guaranteed master ball if nothing else), Shiny Treasure not so much.
Great point! And 151 also brings in that nostalgia affect which is hard to put a price on!
Top quality content mate. You're on a roll!
Much appreciated! More to come!
There is a lot of ways you can chop things up and look at the data and that's what I do when I look at what sets I am going to invest in. Compiling sales data and also looking at factors such as demand at the time, supply at the time and EV of the box then Vs now, you can paint a picture on why the perceived value is where it is and this can be applied to any set If you have enough data to use. I also look for patterns and compare sets that are similar in ev, demand etc so I can try to predict the trajectory of future price movement. You're right there is no perfect formula but this can be a good compass to use.
Awesome mate, thanks for your input!
Very interesting concept and makes a ton of sense. Excellent video and kudos for figuring this out!
Glad you liked it!
Definitely on the right track and appraoch to prioritize pokemon investments.
Thanks man!
That Aquapolis Houndoom is the card of cards for me, a holy grail one day to be obtained and cherished 😂. The equation makes a lot of sense and is definitely a useful tool, thank you!
Couldn't agree more!
You explain this so well. But I believe you can do this with Team up that set is getting crazy. So happy to have some sealed packs in my collection
Thanks mate!
Great Content, like always 👍
Appreciate it!
Keep up the great videos! Keep it 💯!
Thanks mate!
This guys page is going to blow up if he keeps delivering content of this caliber. All us here at 10k need to circle back to this when he hits 100k as an i-told-ya-so!
Thanks mate, let's hope so!
I like your thinking Oz. It’s no Bernoulli’s Equation but it makes sense to me and feels good to find some method.
PS - I got my Evolving Skies booster box in the mail today! Major box (😉) checked in my goal to collect Sword/Shield base to the present!
That's awesome mate, well done 😎
Thanks for the insight. One thing hard to quantify is nostalgia (looking at the price of XY Evolutions BB - not too many great cards, not quite scarce, still pretty expensive...)
well thats the part of the equation called the hits buddy. smh
Add that into Japanese 151 and wait to see prices of that down the line!
Got sealed Case of Evolution booster boxes. Had in my collection since 2016 pulled everything got stuck with the case no one wanted to buy the booster boxes cause people thought the set suck. Come 2020/2021 the set blew up again and i am happy now I still got them.
Scarcity is definitely important for sealed product, look at the primal clash etbs, they’re being listed for significantly more than even the booster boxes. Also, XY in general is very expensive compared to the top raw cards due to quality control, the difference between raw cards and psa 10 is massive compared to a lot of other sets. So I would say that the print quality is another significant factor, which could boost sets like 151 in the future.
There's certainly a lot of factors. Thanks for adding some input 👌
@@pokeoz91 Yeah, this was an interesting video. Also, I commented before finishing it so I didn’t see you go into XY yet as an example which showed a bit of what I was talking about with the low total value on the top ten hits.
Awesome 🎊
Thanks mate 👌
Very thoughtful idea.
Glad you think so!
Good thinking man 💪
Thanks man!
Id like to see some advanced charting for pokemon cards/ prices
Would really help me formulate my thesis better
Would definitely help mate!
Interesting you brought up Rebel Clash. I have a sealed booster but completely torn whether I should sell right now, or hold. I know it’s not the best set but because of its scarcity, I go back and forth. Great video!
Thanks mate, yeah it's a hard one. It will slowly tick up over the coming years but because of its lack of hits, that will hurt it!
Buy a mint RC BB and sell your damaged. That way when you sell your appealing to both box breakers and collectors. Right now you can only sell to box breakers and a low level collector. damaged boxes give them impression of damaged cards.
@@joemccaffery7016 I think they meant that THEY are torn , not the box.
you are my favorite pokemon youtuber. I can't say anything else
Thanks heaps! Appreciate it..
Maybe i should ask Collectr for an API for their data and post your calculation for all the sets with forecasts 🤔.
Great video!
That would be cool!
Not a terrible attempt here, I like where you're going with it but the problem with your formula is the scarcity part of the equation. That is, at best, a guess on how rare a box is. This definitely has me thinking though, good video!
It is, like how do you judge. I mean we know modern is a 0 and 1st edition base is a 10. But a lot of mid sets, is guess work 👌
Hi, I think you are in the right path. This is a mathematical problem I have also given a bit of thought. I do think there are two parts to deriving the value, a) expected value of the cards in the box if they are graded (pick your grading company), for this you need to be able to know the probabilities of getting PSA 10, 9, 8, etc. for each card, and then look at the market value of each potential grade, no difficult , but you need the data across all grades. The harder part is the intrinsic value of the box itself, overtime, as the box becomes more scarce, it acquires its own value as a collectible, how to determine that? my guess is that is as function of time since the set was release and the expected value of the cards, there might be a constant that perhaps can be derived across sets, and the longer the horizon, the better, another indicator to this intrinsic value is amount of print of the box, in lieu of knowing that data, we need some other data that could potentially correlate to the print size, PSA total population perhaps, perhaps other data, then we can write a model to derive the expected price with confidence levels and see how well it fits the input data.
There's a lot of factors to take into consideration hey man!
@@pokeoz91 Agree, if we could get all the data, I could model, probably a multi-variable regression model, and also model with some AI models, key is getting the data, we can leave multiple sets out of each generation for validating if the model works, interesting project, but a lot of the work is getting the data
Wow, this equation is actually pretty insightful
Thanks 👌
I just picked up a sealed box of Mario Pikachu. This set truly is rare. It was a limited set to begin with, and we'll before the boom, so most of these were opened.
Nice mate!
Where did you pick up those booster box acrylic cases? I love your vids!
Ultra pro cases. I got super lucky and a viewer gifted them to me 👌
There are boxes from the BW era that have very few hits but the boxes are worth a car. It's hard to nail down a rule for what becomes popular but it's quite clear if it is hyped at release then it's going to maintain that hype. Some sets gain hype long after release but mostly it tends to be due to hype and scarcity due to the passage of time. Defo need to add a value for hype into your equation lol good for a laugh tho cheers pokeoz
Welcome mate 😎
Really good video. Where in Australia do you live?
Thanks man!
another multiplier is how hard it is to get a psa 10. for instance, legendary treasures was the first time they did fullart cards with the 2 gold sr cards trying to get a psa 10 is almost impossible because of the chips that would happen on the back of card while cutting it. so knowing how well the print run was is also another factor into the box prices. its crazy how all of these little things add up!
Yep, exactly mate!
Japanese WCP and Lost Link make 1st Ed base set a 5 on the rarity scale 😂 great vid
Thanks man!
I think another factor that will impact newer sets is *pull rate*. Older sets are MUCH easier to find those top chase cards, so I don't think Team Up will be worth 10K, at least not to me 😂
Evolving skies bucks this trend a bit as its pull rate is awful but price still sky rocketed
I guess we'll wait and see where it is in 6 or 7 years time 😎
I think I agree but should assign weight to the variables unless you believe they’re all valued equally. Is scarcity an equal driver to price compared to # of chase cards for example
Yeah, I get what you're saying! Tough one hey!
I do enjoy your breakdown and the top ten cards do have a play in the price but I think time needs to be played in as well as scarcity. Maybe instead of 1-10 scale for scarcity it would be a 1-5 scale and time would be a 1-5 scale as well?? I feel like that would fix the modern side of the equation
Yeah, you could definitely work that into the equation man. But then print run of sets is different too, so time can still not make a set scarcer (like vivid voltage) for arguments sake.
Very true, Vivid was printed to high heaven. Its a tough equation to crack @@pokeoz91
When trying to apply this to modern, keep in mind what your base set Charizard sold for in the 90s.
Very good point 👌
I think the other thing that could be factored in to a theoretical equation is pull rates. I do think that the box price of evo skies will be capped in part from the knowledge that it’s so unlikely to pull anything so people will be less likely to want to pay top dollar to open it.
I disagree a bit, think it’s kind of human nature to think “but maybe I’ll be the one to do it!” Almost adds to the excitement
It's definitely a double edged sword!
I got lucky with Call of Legends as well $60 a pack right before Champions Path came out. Champions Path is right when the big boom hit of 2020
Nice mate, how many packs did you end up getting?
@@pokeoz91 8 packs two art sets. I opened 4 and got 1 Shiny Ho-oh and the darkness energy with Umbreon in the background.
I think the whole factor of PSA 10 modern vs vintage manifests itself pretty well in the loose cost of the older cards
That's definitely true!
Very interesting video. How do you work out rarity? Once the set is no longer available in store how do you decide between a 2 and an 8, for example? Is there a website that tells you the print run of each set? Thanks Michael
Is it as simple as going to eBay and seeing how many boxes are up for sale?
@@richardhalahan1183 Maybe. But why are people buying fusion strike for above msrp on average when it's still in stock on the pokemon center for msrp? weird.
That's the hard part, putting that figure on it. Like new sets have a rarity of 0 and 1st edition base a 10. I guess one of the key takeaways, is expected box value is going to be heavily dependant on this chase cards.
Which sets do you think i should invest in in the sword and shield era? I've alredy watched many videos about this including yours, but i still can't decide on the top 5 to invest in... (If you can, can you suggest me the top 5 sets in the sword and shield era in a scale from worst to best?)
Lost Origin is a good price, chilling reign is still good! Evo Skies will go bonkers as time goes on.
@@pokeoz91 thanks! 😃 (btw new sub)
Seeing through the mushy peas is a new one 😂
Hahaha 🤣🤣
Got a Evolving Skies booster box saved for the future
I think there's another variable to put into the equation when trying to predict the performance of modern sealed product over time. I think that variable is: how many more people were investing in sealed at the time of the product's release? We know there were not nearly as many sealed investors in Sun and Moon era as there were about midway into Sword and Shield era. You always hear people talking about how heavily they invested into Chilling Reign, but how many people do you talk to who invested heavily into, say, Team Up or Burning Shadows?
I don't like being pessimistic, but I often think there might be a bit of a "Beanie Baby effect" when it comes to later Sword and Shield sets. The more people expect a collectible to appreciate in value, the more common it will be to find big collections of it in the future and the less it will appreciate. I hope this is not the case but it's in the back of my mind.
It might be smarter to buy smaller quantities of more expensive Sun and Moon sealed, rather than larger quantities of mid-to-late Sword and Shield era sealed. Just a hunch, I could be totally wrong.
90% of people who invest fail. They fail because they don't have patients and cash out early. That and people will always rip open sealed stuff no matter the price. Pops can only go down. Number of long term investors only goes down. And Beanie Babies aren't sealed stuff and aren't backed by the largest ip in the world. Given enough time everything sealed in Pokemon will go up as long as the Pokemon company is successful.
I think this is a very valid point and it's something I've also thought about. I'm almost certain that these Sw&Sh sets won't appreciate nearly as well as Sun&Moon, but then again, slowly as time goes by, products tend to be cracked open/products are lost to fires and flooding, and eventually prices will go up quite substantually. The ones who have the most patience will also have the highest gains I think, provided Pokemon TCG is still a popular franchise down the road..
Indeed a valid point. It might very well be that "rarity" wil become less than 1 for modern sets, if the sealed stock stays as large as it is.
Hopefully people keep ripping up 151 so theres less and less eventually :)
Yeah I get what you're saying man. The attrition rate is pretty high though. People come and go from this hobby like the wind. But I agree, heaps more sealed collectors/investors now than ever before!
How would you apply your formula to Japanese 151?
In the same way, top 10 chase cards. Wait for it to get scarce. Then that set has another thing on its side, which is NOSTALGIA!
It makes sense, but should we stop investing in modern cause of lack of scarcity ?
His point was that not enough time has passed for them to be scarce yet, not that they never will be
Yeah as Daniel said, with modern, it's really looking at the top 10 chase cards to get a gauge of expected future value when it starts getting more scarce 👌
😊
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Unfortunately (or fortunately) prices are always fluctuating so you can’t really find a formula.
Like if tommorow Lost Origin Aerodactyl skyrocketed to $500 and Giratina to $1,000 the entire formula and value changes.
I guess why the value of the top 10 hits comes into play 👌
@@pokeoz91 Yes but what I’m saying is the boxes don’t automatically fluctuate with values. I guess I could’ve put that better.
To summarize: boxes with hot rare cards are worth more and will always be worth more. There that's the video
I look forward to seeing your version man 😎
No you did it very well im just teasing@@pokeoz91
The price of these booster packs and boxes make no sense to me. If you open a pack you've already lost money, even if you get a hit.
Sealed becomes its own collectable 👌
So out of the Sword & Shield sets which ones are you thinking are the best ones to grab booster boxes of? Maybe even a sealed case of boosters?
Any trainer gallery set with alt arts legend!
Is it worth investing in Half booster boxes ? 🎁🤷🏻♂️
I don't think the market has really taken to them yet 👌
@@pokeoz91 fair play
TeamUp scarcity of 5? I don't know...
I just looked up the price of a booster box on collectr and the price has doubled in the last 12 months :O $1300 to 2600 CAD
I was talking in the future, not currently 👌
@@pokeoz91 I think I missed which way isyour scale going. xD
supply and demand 😁
👌
Fun video for thought, the only problem is your “scarcity” value is completely arbitrary and very, very difficult to assign a meaningful number.
For example, if we say that base set 1st is a 10, with modern consumer habits and print runs, we don’t know if modern scarcity is a 4, or a 0.4, or a 0.004 etc
Again it’s a fun thought experiment but your scarcity value is just completely unknowable for now
Yeah that's the part that's really just guess work 👌