the yield on bonds have decreased especially on the long end (30 and 10 Y) indicating that the demand is still there even if the supply remains huge showing a preference for safety. I'm still at a crossroad regarding whether or not to liquidate my $138k
Thank you for outstanding charts and analysis- Did someone comment by giving advice ? - I suggest they get to your level before they do - The ratios are very insightful - Thank you again.
I think this should be the best time to put cash to work rather than allow it lie waste to inflation. I'm ready to invest about $350k of my savings in stocks. I just need ideas on how to navigate the bear markets and other sectors to diversify
In this current unstable markets, It is advisable to diversify while retaining 70-80% in secure investments. looking at your budget, you should consider financial advisory.
No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise fromm early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024
Kept $105k in CIT Bank HYSA at 5.05% but i now plan to invest in the stock market. What are your thoughts on that? What stocks should I look out for as a newbie to safely grow my money?
Its best if you buy growth/blue-chip/large caps stocks only. Also, as a newbie it’s advisable you work with a financial coach to help set up a well-structured portfolio.
Apt!! I was self-managing my portfolio but suffered heavy losses in 2022 and i knew i couldn't continue like that, so i consulted a fiduciary advisor. By restructuring and diversifying my $1.2M portfolio with dividend-paying stocks, ETFs, Mutual funds and REITs, I significantly boosted my portfolio, achieving an annualized gain of 28%.
I don't comfortably throw recommendations around on the internet, but I've been working with Camille Anne Hector. God ! she's brilliant! I'm sure there are others who are good.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up after scrolling a bit. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her. Once again many thanks.
Thanks so much for your weekly videos. First thing I watch on Saturdays to start my weekend trading prep for the upcoming week. You keep me grounded and mindful in a chaotic world. Thanks to you and Kathy!
These weekly videos are very informative and insightful - a great presentation of charts, data points, news headlines and commentary - all of which are key in understanding market conditions. Your time and hard work is greatly appreciated. Thanks Chris and Kathy! Regards from Toronto, Canada.
Am I correct in saying that the inverted yield curve is? A is a function of short-term treasuries being sold, which is where stock market profits are deposited. And the long end of the curve being bought bringing long yields down
Is there a pandemic from China moving across Europe towards the US like there was in early Feb 2020? Bc that’s what caused that “deep shorter pullback”
From a relative basis (ratio charts) if we're avoiding lower performing asset classes (global/emerging, commodities/metals, dividends, small caps, etc) we should concentrate in the best performers SMH/FNGS or ultimately BTC as long as the ratio charts show this superiority unless you want to dilute the gains by diversifying. But managing large asset funds you probably have to mostly stick with SPY and QQQ or major sector ETFs (tech) due to liquidity requirements.
Thanks very much for making your research public. Have a question about interpreting the TLT:SPY weekly chart. Can we really conclude that a declining TLT:SPY ratio is risk ON, given that it was also declining during the 2022 Bear?
Considering the 1970s would be the barometer for sticky inflation (if the data was available during that time frame) feels like having ran comparison charts against that period may have gleamed some possible more direct contrast if the subject is sticky inflation. Don't recall 2007 being a period of inflation concern primarily.
Great video guys!.. Is there are chart of Commercial Real Estate (CRE) vs SP500? Is CRE the canary in the coalmine in 2024/25? As banks get hit with CRE delinquencies in 2024 when CRE loans are rolled over on much higher interest rates, could this lead to a 'wave' of bank failures that even the FED cannot manage, leading to banking sector failure, contagion and panic selling akin to 2008 GFC. Then it was residential real estate that was the catalyst. Will CRE be the catalyst in 2024/25?
@ 3:23 when you are showing diversified bonds vs the S & P 500 weekly, I have to wonder just how much lower this trend can go before it turns upward again. It's now below .20, to me, time is running out.
I am wondering whether the demographic theory is enough to overcome the long term liabilities that are coming for governments with the retirement and old age pensions needs?
Chris, thanks for another informative video. I believe that to generate substantial returns in investing, adopting a long-term strategy is essential. I greatly admire the investment philosophies of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. I've created videos discussing their strategies to help me stay focused, and finally, after investing for a few years, I've started to see some profits in the market.
today the ratio is in uptrend , yes but it can change very quiqly , go down , and you lose money , the uptrend is go away , yes you waiting 2 years and the money coming back when you have lucky , you see what happens japan , , it is better for a quiqly reaction when the market go down , and yes afther every dip , hy go higher , now we have new world , the casino world whit stocks and bitcoin , push up and quiqly go down , you see bitcoin , everybode in the ETF push up now go down , mayby go very down ,
the yield on bonds have decreased especially on the long end (30 and 10 Y) indicating that the demand is still there even if the supply remains huge showing a preference for safety. I'm still at a crossroad regarding whether or not to liquidate my $138k
The most important series of videos that I watch every week. Thank you again.
Thank you for outstanding charts and analysis- Did someone comment by giving advice ? - I suggest they get to your level before they do - The ratios are very insightful - Thank you again.
I think this should be the best time to put cash to work rather than allow it lie waste to inflation. I'm ready to invest about $350k of my savings in stocks. I just need ideas on how to navigate the bear markets and other sectors to diversify
In this current unstable markets, It is advisable to diversify while retaining 70-80% in secure investments. looking at your budget, you should consider financial advisory.
No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise fromm early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024
I’ve been looking to switch to an advisor for a while now. Any help pointing me to who your advisor is?
Heather Lee Larioni… that’s my advisor’s name. Thank me later.
Thank you for this amazing tip. I just looked the name up, wrote her explaining my financial market goals and scheduled a call
Extremely handy information and reminders here. Thank you! ❤
Thanks for your weekly vids, really appreciated.
Thanks you lot. Enjoy the long weekend and thanks again!
Kept $105k in CIT Bank HYSA at 5.05% but i now plan to invest in the stock market. What are your thoughts on that? What stocks should I look out for as a newbie to safely grow my money?
Its best if you buy growth/blue-chip/large caps stocks only. Also, as a newbie it’s advisable you work with a financial coach to help set up a well-structured portfolio.
Apt!! I was self-managing my portfolio but suffered heavy losses in 2022 and i knew i couldn't continue like that, so i consulted a fiduciary advisor. By restructuring and diversifying my $1.2M portfolio with dividend-paying stocks, ETFs, Mutual funds and REITs, I significantly boosted my portfolio, achieving an annualized gain of 28%.
Impressive! How can I contact this expêrt? My pørtfolio isnt doing well, and I need guidance.
I don't comfortably throw recommendations around on the internet, but I've been working with Camille Anne Hector. God ! she's brilliant! I'm sure there are others who are good.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up after scrolling a bit. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her. Once again many thanks.
Thanks so much for your weekly videos. First thing I watch on Saturdays to start my weekend trading prep for the upcoming week. You keep me grounded and mindful in a chaotic world. Thanks to you and Kathy!
Thank you Chris.
These weekly videos are very informative and insightful - a great presentation of charts, data points, news headlines and commentary - all of which are key in understanding market conditions. Your time and hard work is greatly appreciated. Thanks Chris and Kathy! Regards from Toronto, Canada.
Good vid - thanks
Need a T-shirt:
‘Could happen very soon, but hasn’t happened yet’
😀
Outstanding
Thx as always for the info Chris & Cathy!
Very good work ,period
Thank you so much for sharing this
Am I correct in saying that the inverted yield curve is? A is a function of short-term treasuries being sold, which is where stock market profits are deposited. And the long end of the curve being bought bringing long yields down
The current weekly chart looks very similar to early Feb 2020. Isn't it possible we could see a deep short term pullback again?
I hope so 😉
Is there a pandemic from China moving across Europe towards the US like there was in early Feb 2020? Bc that’s what caused that “deep shorter pullback”
From a relative basis (ratio charts) if we're avoiding lower performing asset classes (global/emerging, commodities/metals, dividends, small caps, etc) we should concentrate in the best performers SMH/FNGS or ultimately BTC as long as the ratio charts show this superiority unless you want to dilute the gains by diversifying. But managing large asset funds you probably have to mostly stick with SPY and QQQ or major sector ETFs (tech) due to liquidity requirements.
Thanks very much for making your research public. Have a question about interpreting the TLT:SPY weekly chart. Can we really conclude that a declining TLT:SPY ratio is risk ON, given that it was also declining during the 2022 Bear?
Stocks outperforming bonds is by definition risk on
@@russellb2464 but misleading .. for asset allocation
FINRA margin debt is still very low, suggesting there is a lot of room for the market to go up.
Considering the 1970s would be the barometer for sticky inflation (if the data was available during that time frame) feels like having ran comparison charts against that period may have gleamed some possible more direct contrast if the subject is sticky inflation.
Don't recall 2007 being a period of inflation concern primarily.
Great video guys!.. Is there are chart of Commercial Real Estate (CRE) vs SP500? Is CRE the canary in the coalmine in 2024/25? As banks get hit with CRE delinquencies in 2024 when CRE loans are rolled over on much higher interest rates, could this lead to a 'wave' of bank failures that even the FED cannot manage, leading to banking sector failure, contagion and panic selling akin to 2008 GFC. Then it was residential real estate that was the catalyst. Will CRE be the catalyst in 2024/25?
Chris I saw you on hedgeye years ago. Keith McCullough shoulda listened to you
yes your information is very good , thats not the problem , it is not base on quiqly reaction when it go wrong , and it can by goog wrong
Can you look into the bitcoin ETF data? Than you
These three day weekends are not rare there are way too many damn Federal holidays.
@ 3:23 when you are showing diversified bonds vs the S & P 500 weekly, I have to wonder just how much lower this trend can go before it turns upward again. It's now below .20, to me, time is running out.
Brah the all time low of tlt to sp500 is a contrarian indicator
What about the market before 2001 tech bubble burst?
My favourite channel for being totally oblivious to the macro. 😂
Condescending. Then why follow this channel?
bull market is over, tueday starts with a big down day
AAA+ review
February 2024.
Ah NOOOOO ....... 2024 SPX target 5,496.22
I m out also.
I am wondering whether the demographic theory is enough to overcome the long term liabilities that are coming for governments with the retirement and old age pensions needs?
Let me guess: no, it won’t? Because historically, stocks were higher in 12-18 months. 😴
Has he been wrong yet? No? Then stfu
Chris, thanks for another informative video. I believe that to generate substantial returns in investing, adopting a long-term strategy is essential. I greatly admire the investment philosophies of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. I've created videos discussing their strategies to help me stay focused, and finally, after investing for a few years, I've started to see some profits in the market.
Nope it will not
First to comment 😂😂😂
today the ratio is in uptrend , yes but it can change very quiqly , go down , and you lose money , the uptrend is go away , yes you waiting 2 years and the money coming back when you have lucky , you see what happens japan , , it is better for a quiqly reaction when the market go down , and yes afther every dip , hy go higher , now we have new world , the casino world whit stocks and bitcoin , push up and quiqly go down , you see bitcoin , everybode in the ETF push up now go down , mayby go very down ,
Bear market for sure sp500 is going to 1700-1500 in 3-5 years
🤣
None of this make an any senses. I think Cris likes to make money on this videos
Just bc you’re not intelligent enough to follow along doesn’t mean it doesn’t make sense. It just means you’re an idiot.