The Magnificent 7 Is a Bubble | TCAF 130
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- Опубліковано 30 чер 2024
- On episode 130 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Richard Bernstein to discuss: the magnificent 7 compared to past bubbles, bitcoin as a sentiment indicator, the Fed's predicament, the case for international stocks, and much more!
Thanks to Carta for sponsoring this episode. See how Carta can simplify your equity plan management today by going to www.carta.com/compound.
More from Richard:
x.com/RBAdvisors
► 00:00 - Cold Open
► 07:44 - Intro
► 09:14 - Is the Magnificent 7 a Bubble?
► 20:10 - Bitcoin
► 29:56 - Inflation Risks and The Fed
► 36:33 - International Stocks
► 41:59 - Reshoring/Friendshoring
► 46:33 - Politics vs Fundamentals
► 58:38 - Chinese Stocks?
► 01:08:20 - Richard's Work
► 01:10:58 - NY Rangers and Jets
► 01:14:45 - Favorites
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Thanks to Carta for sponsoring this episode. See how Carta can simplify your equity plan management today by going to www.carta.com/compound.
I have a theory on why US and everyone else except China is going up - its the reallocation of assets from China to everywhere else.
You didn't Challenge him of His horrendeous track record even once. Empathic
Downtown Brown, I love the show and you have some of the best guests, but MAN if you guys could just let these guests SPEAK without the CNBC style interruptions, this could EASILY be the cornerstone of wall street/investment podcasts in North America. Not saying there shouldn't be pushback, (there should be) just let them complete their sentences, us viewers are listening to them!
Seriously. I love Batnick on other shows but he's awful on this show.
Oh no, I just started. Thanks for the warning. You are 100% right on Michael. I can only do Tuesday and Friday. Can't do anymore Michael.
Please start your own podcast and show us your brilliant interviewing skills.
Batnick needs ADD meds
Couldn't agree more. I really wanted to hear more from Bernstein. The constant interruptions ruined it for me.
I love watching Michael when anyone rips on crypto.
He pouts like my kid.
yeah bitcoin is goin to ZERO !
Again and again you guys deliver with giants from the investment business and this show is yet another fine example of this. I agree with Bernstein that the risk to inflation is HIGHER. Though I didn't agree with everything I heard (learned), my favorite aspect about The Compound is that your guests can be counted on to share original and more thought-provoking views rather than just repeating the same old pedestrian crap that's regurgitated and recycled almost everywhere else. 🔥
Absolutely
I can't believe how this guy can be so confident when was wrong about the market for so long.
I guess confidence pays. 😎
Two great consecutive episodes!
Appreciate it!
Party On With The Compound! 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
Hey MWC, can you help me with the down payment on the Florida property Josh talked about?
@@cliffpeebles9705 Lol! Let's get him to pitch in with us! 🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳✌️✌️✌️✌️👍👍👍👍🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏 Please Josh! 🥳🥳🥳🥳
@@midwestcannabis And you can think of it as a time share with no payments and no maintenance fees forever. That baby of yours need a beach!
@@cliffpeebles9705 Now we're talk'in 🥳🥳
I literally took Marlboro branded gear to elementary and middle school. Shout out to dad.
OMG! You would be sent home today. LOL (Full disclosure - My family was KY tobacco farmers)
Camel Joe gear rules!
@@michaelmiddleton3311 They knew how to make lung cancer sexy!
They still make it sexy. Nicotine pouches, electric cigarettes etc. Getting th kids hooked.
I’m not a smoker, but love the logo and colors of Marlboro. I looked recently on eBay for the old gear.
Only podcast I follow. You guys keep killing it
You really need to get out more. There are far better channels.
I really like the pre game warm ups.
Great show. It keeps getting better.
Love the knowledge, guys, and appreciate the show 🫶✌️
This guy knows what he’s talking about. Bitcoin Core is not a currency and mainly just speculation. That’s why the Block Size wars happened back in 2017. The big blocker’s predictions about BTC becoming co-opted by Wall Street all came true. All they care about is number go up. Imagine being excited about a Bitcoin ETF
Josh on fire this week
Always
Hi algorithm. This is a great show
Algorithm go burr
Another great show. Love the whole bunch of them
Great show guys! I only got to watch him on CNBC.
Great show! Y’all the best
For Big Tech, we could still be in the 1998 period rather than 2000 given where valuations are today: not that excessive.
Valuations were completely different in 2000 bubble though. Cisco and Nasdaq were trading at 100+ PE ratio then. The magnificent 7 are trading now at only 1/3 that.
Looking forward to you revisiting BTC with every ATH.
Great stuff guys. One note. The natural humor and interplay you all exhibit is plenty. The Christopher M SMCI quip as an example. Great stuff. So leave the zany push button canned sound effects to the goofs in the drivetime radio shock jock realm and Cramer the clown. Please. You all are better than this. I am old. And I recommend this channel as a go to when asked for good content by thirsty young investors. The whole deck is just great. But more than once, I have been told that the goofball preprogrammed sound effects are " cringe" as the kids say. We are about to hand these youngins trillions. We want them hungry for good finance content. Lets not drive them away with boo- yahs and canned applause nonsense. Enough said. You guys rock. Great channel!
Its Fri yay with Compound and Friends!
Happy Friday Jeff!
Terrific show. Extremely educational and entertaining. I especially enjoyed the bitcoin discussion. It was comforting to know that an exceptional investor like Mr. Bernstein has the same opinion of bitcoin that I do - it’s nothing more than a digital space on a computer. A bitcoin owner’s only hope is that someone will pay a higher price for that digital space than the owner did.
It doesn't really matter what you think Bitcoin is or isn't. Bottom line is I started to buy when it was $18,000 My average is $25,900. It is now $52K, by the end of 2024 it will be 150K by 2030 it will hit $1 mil. I'm in my 70's do you really think it's important what BTC is? All I see is $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
I don’t think anyone really cares as long as we make money with it. I bought it last year at 20k and made more gains then you’ve probably ever made on an investment in that time frame
Excellent show. Carry on!!
Thank you for watching!
Love the content, appreciate all your hard work.
His perspective is that of a value investor which will forever impact his outlook. Has value not underperformed?
Awesome show, fellas!
Thank you!
Thank you
Really enjoyed today's guest! I don't wanna name any names 😅
Great Show.. The BX Loves it..
It won’t be a bubble per se it will be a de consolidation and broadening out or shift from these names. Investors have been hiding out in these companies (given they make up over 20% of the market cap of the S&P 500) waiting for the next major move in technology to see if it’s one of them that capitalize on it or someone else. Either way these aren’t bad companies to own in the least look at the balance sheets and margins of Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Meta etc they can easily take care of their shareholders in buying back stock with the some hundreds of billions in free cash flow they generate, and I think as their growth inevitably slows that’s what they eventually will do.
Great show!!
Thanks!
Thanks Josh for the heads up on that property in FL. I just put my offer in. Wish me luck!
Lolz
@@jeffossola668 First time ever getting a Lolz. Thanks Jeff!
My wife and I just rode past the Donahue estate this morning. It's a really unique property. The buyer will tear down all existing improvements. I'm guessing it trades at $250MM+/-.
@@tmclean9 Looking at it online, I can't imagine the upkeep costs.
I think an Island in the south Pacific is cheaper.
Good show.
Awesome Show!
Red 🍎 🐼 Watching and Learning... Awesome Guest/GgRreatT Show... thankzz
Thanks David!
David! You picked a good one to watch.
profound. The predictions were all correct about the internet, but the price was the most important factor.
Don't have FOMO. Have reason.
Carl Icahn said "show me a bubble and I will invest in it". I don't disagree with you at all, but playing with fire can be exhilarating.
And if your reason is wrong... switch the side of the trade you are on. Wanting or needing to be correct... gets a lot of trades and investors in trouble. I would rather be wrong and make money. The only way for that to happen is admit it.
"Navigate the Noise" by Richard Bernstein is a must read for any investor.
Perfect motto for this show w their knack for interruptions!
Quality program
Thanks Chris!
Great episode, do you think that in the future we can get links to the Favorites everyone mentions in each episode? would help a lot
Some commentator I don't remember who, just recently made a remark that rates up to 5% are actually stimulative which explains the no recession, tight labor market economy. In my mind, that is not just because fixed income investors have more money to spend, but because investments are not made as lightly. Having to pay interest, or just missing out on some rate of interest by investing money other than in fixed income, means less speculation. Less speculation means more thoughtful investments, more efficient markets. But that aside, I've commented here almost year ago, no recession, and just a week ago, inflation is not moderating. I told my brokerage advisor in November rates will go higher. I think Josh is on board at least with the no cuts scenario. Thanks to Rich Bernstein for affirming. IMO Powell already made a policy error when he stopped raising rates in July.
Let me add, IMO the real reason for the "error" is SVB. Look at the St. Louis Fed chart of M2 money supply. It has been rising since April 2023. That is not the result of tightening monetary policy.
Rich is one of my favorites 😊
Richard Bernstein seems like a really nice guy
Now the weekend can start!
Just a reminder, when you compare the US Mag7 with the Europe Mag7, it‘s almost the same performance.
Fantastic guest
Totally disagree. He says things that are wrong by factual standards.
Favorite book right now - Sapiens -Harari
Little Drummer Girl was made into a movie too. Le Carre spy novels are the best!
Doesn't get any better than this show. Thank you
Damn that outtro crushed it
Josh rocking the Daytona like a boss.
Just listen to Josh's sign off, you can tell the dude was an MC in his past life. Smoothest outro on the internet
"He used it to keep the family together." 😂 That and the bigillion dollars in family dough. 😅
#MarlboroMiles I about spit out my drink when I heard that. These guys are the best.
Let's goooooooooo 😊
One of the best shows . Michael was calm , no screaming or interrupting by him .
bitcoin - there's absolutely nothing there! great take, HFSP
Nothing is valuable unless everyone else thinks it is
47:42 Well done Michael 😂😂
Palantir Tech is next to grow wild
Very funny Josh re: super micro 😂
i know josh made talked about discover financials policies around holding a balance and compared them to capital one. problem is i cant find it, and i watch every show from here so it may not even be in this video. i know this is a big ask but can someone please help me?
That Marlboro Miles comment was funny but even Mike blushed at the embarrassment
Get Michael Saylor on the pod and have him talk Bitcoin. Would be perfect timing with the BTC mania rn for the pod
The most important point is these are real companies unlike 1999! These companies PE goes down! The growth is not indicative of speculation but earning!
Bitcoin represents something other than a normal investment. It's a philosophical asset. He needs to rethink. It's not about returns it's about the governing structure of Bitcoin versus US government.
Mag 7 is grossly overvalued. This guy is spot on! Hype, hype, hype
Uncle Warren is not running the BRK portfolio, it's his two lieutenants, Ted Weschler and Todd Combs. I'm sure they discuss it around the desk with Warren but he is not making the decisions in a vacuum.
When’s Barry Sternlicht going to be on the show?
A Double is a Bubble, so we’re still good.
Marlboro miles 😂😂😂
@@nortonantho yeah that's what I said ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
can you guys please interview cem karsan from kai volatility dude is brilliant and feel like it would be a banger show
rolling my laser eyes
I’m guessing Ted or Todd sold Apple, not Warren. We will know in May.
Great show! Just remember: inflation is a feature, not a bug. It helps nominal growth which translates to corporate profitability and makes the debt issue better. And politics does matter. 9/11, Iraq, and the global financial crisis were all on Bush. And he got hoodwinked in China. And that Texas Gov was responsible for Enron and $147 Oil... As for the American Psycho/Pump & Dump 1980s being the age of innocence... it's nice to roll old tapes and only remember the good times, not the heroine needles and crack addicts all along the streets of nyc... as for china, that is like Japan in 1988. they are getting booted from the first world trade club because they are theivery corp. and they won't stop, so don't sell crowdstrike. how they are going to butter their bread in the coming years on third world economies will be interesting to see...
Little Drummer Girl is excellent series w Florence Pugh, Alexander Skarsgard, Michael Shannon. Skarsgard at his best!
Great call on Bitcoin, Richard.
In which way they think Google is a bubble, PE only 25, coca-cola is 24!😅
Outstanding show , but why does he use examples if you bought at the height it took you 14 years to B/E. Who buys just the one time at the peak and stops ?
"The Mag 7 is the only game in town, now let me show you a chart of the XLI going to the sky".
Japan, Britain, Germany, China are all in recession, small businesses here in America are in recession, credit card debt is exploding, commercial real estate is dead, housing market is frozen inflation is running hot and we have a 35 trillion dollar deficit. Sounds like a great economy to me
Another great show guys! Any interest in getting a guy like Anthony Pompliano on the show?
If youre scared, just say your scared.
None.
@@TheCompoundNews I can respect that. How bout those ADD meds for Batnick though.
Poor Einhorn! The new system refuses to be gamed.
Gary Vee is going to buy the Jets
👍
You should’ve asked Rosie how it feels to be wrong for more than a year.
I don't know how many times people have to hear this: China doesn't care about their stock market. They think of it like a casino. It's pure gambling to them and if they want to gamble, they'd sooner play Mah Jongg or go to Macau. When they invest it's in real estate.
Richard effing Bernstein
Jordan Love didn't start for 3 years
But Bitcoin went up while financial conditions tightened for many months.
Just because the United States and countries with stable fiat currencies don't use Bitcoin as a currency, doesn't mean it is not used as a currency else where. Unstable fiat economies are and have been using Bitcoin as a currency.
No brainer. Semiconductor and AI stocks will dominate 2024. Why I prefer NVIDIA is that they are better placed to maintain long term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies.
I bought NVIDIA around September last year because my financiaI-planner recommended it to me…said the company is selling shovels in a gold rush. It accounted for almost 80% of my market return this year.
Not yet a bubble, next Nvidia earnings will be fantastic
21.00 Josh tosses out the Marlboro miles joke 😂
And Bernstein doesn't know what this meant, seriously?
Not surprised by the boomer take on BTC
I love seeing these ancient Street luminaries stumble when trying to discuss crypto. And while I believe Josh has an impressive understanding of finance, his limited grasp of Bitcoin is laughably poor.
What if they have a full understanding and you’ve imagined everything beyond that?
@@ManFrizzleLet’s discuss again in 18 months.
👋..👍
Bull markets are hardly logical. I would not fight what is until isn’t. Nevertheless markets are made by skeptics and believers
He was brutal to listen to. I actually agree w most of what he said but damn it takes him awhile to make his points.
Bitcoin serves a bigger purpose than just speculation. It serves to allow unbanked people to transfer large amounts of wealth without the banking system.