Downtown Brown, I love the show and you have some of the best guests, but MAN if you guys could just let these guests SPEAK without the CNBC style interruptions, this could EASILY be the cornerstone of wall street/investment podcasts in North America. Not saying there shouldn't be pushback, (there should be) just let them complete their sentences, us viewers are listening to them!
Again and again you guys deliver with giants from the investment business and this show is yet another fine example of this. I agree with Bernstein that the risk to inflation is HIGHER. Though I didn't agree with everything I heard (learned), my favorite aspect about The Compound is that your guests can be counted on to share original and more thought-provoking views rather than just repeating the same old pedestrian crap that's regurgitated and recycled almost everywhere else. 🔥
Great stuff guys. One note. The natural humor and interplay you all exhibit is plenty. The Christopher M SMCI quip as an example. Great stuff. So leave the zany push button canned sound effects to the goofs in the drivetime radio shock jock realm and Cramer the clown. Please. You all are better than this. I am old. And I recommend this channel as a go to when asked for good content by thirsty young investors. The whole deck is just great. But more than once, I have been told that the goofball preprogrammed sound effects are " cringe" as the kids say. We are about to hand these youngins trillions. We want them hungry for good finance content. Lets not drive them away with boo- yahs and canned applause nonsense. Enough said. You guys rock. Great channel!
This guy knows what he’s talking about. Bitcoin Core is not a currency and mainly just speculation. That’s why the Block Size wars happened back in 2017. The big blocker’s predictions about BTC becoming co-opted by Wall Street all came true. All they care about is number go up. Imagine being excited about a Bitcoin ETF
Valuations were completely different in 2000 bubble though. Cisco and Nasdaq were trading at 100+ PE ratio then. The magnificent 7 are trading now at only 1/3 that.
It won’t be a bubble per se it will be a de consolidation and broadening out or shift from these names. Investors have been hiding out in these companies (given they make up over 20% of the market cap of the S&P 500) waiting for the next major move in technology to see if it’s one of them that capitalize on it or someone else. Either way these aren’t bad companies to own in the least look at the balance sheets and margins of Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Meta etc they can easily take care of their shareholders in buying back stock with the some hundreds of billions in free cash flow they generate, and I think as their growth inevitably slows that’s what they eventually will do.
My wife and I just rode past the Donahue estate this morning. It's a really unique property. The buyer will tear down all existing improvements. I'm guessing it trades at $250MM+/-.
Terrific show. Extremely educational and entertaining. I especially enjoyed the bitcoin discussion. It was comforting to know that an exceptional investor like Mr. Bernstein has the same opinion of bitcoin that I do - it’s nothing more than a digital space on a computer. A bitcoin owner’s only hope is that someone will pay a higher price for that digital space than the owner did.
It doesn't really matter what you think Bitcoin is or isn't. Bottom line is I started to buy when it was $18,000 My average is $25,900. It is now $52K, by the end of 2024 it will be 150K by 2030 it will hit $1 mil. I'm in my 70's do you really think it's important what BTC is? All I see is $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
I don’t think anyone really cares as long as we make money with it. I bought it last year at 20k and made more gains then you’ve probably ever made on an investment in that time frame
And if your reason is wrong... switch the side of the trade you are on. Wanting or needing to be correct... gets a lot of trades and investors in trouble. I would rather be wrong and make money. The only way for that to happen is admit it.
Some commentator I don't remember who, just recently made a remark that rates up to 5% are actually stimulative which explains the no recession, tight labor market economy. In my mind, that is not just because fixed income investors have more money to spend, but because investments are not made as lightly. Having to pay interest, or just missing out on some rate of interest by investing money other than in fixed income, means less speculation. Less speculation means more thoughtful investments, more efficient markets. But that aside, I've commented here almost year ago, no recession, and just a week ago, inflation is not moderating. I told my brokerage advisor in November rates will go higher. I think Josh is on board at least with the no cuts scenario. Thanks to Rich Bernstein for affirming. IMO Powell already made a policy error when he stopped raising rates in July.
Let me add, IMO the real reason for the "error" is SVB. Look at the St. Louis Fed chart of M2 money supply. It has been rising since April 2023. That is not the result of tightening monetary policy.
Bitcoin represents something other than a normal investment. It's a philosophical asset. He needs to rethink. It's not about returns it's about the governing structure of Bitcoin versus US government.
i know josh made talked about discover financials policies around holding a balance and compared them to capital one. problem is i cant find it, and i watch every show from here so it may not even be in this video. i know this is a big ask but can someone please help me?
The most important point is these are real companies unlike 1999! These companies PE goes down! The growth is not indicative of speculation but earning!
Great show! Just remember: inflation is a feature, not a bug. It helps nominal growth which translates to corporate profitability and makes the debt issue better. And politics does matter. 9/11, Iraq, and the global financial crisis were all on Bush. And he got hoodwinked in China. And that Texas Gov was responsible for Enron and $147 Oil... As for the American Psycho/Pump & Dump 1980s being the age of innocence... it's nice to roll old tapes and only remember the good times, not the heroine needles and crack addicts all along the streets of nyc... as for china, that is like Japan in 1988. they are getting booted from the first world trade club because they are theivery corp. and they won't stop, so don't sell crowdstrike. how they are going to butter their bread in the coming years on third world economies will be interesting to see...
Just because the United States and countries with stable fiat currencies don't use Bitcoin as a currency, doesn't mean it is not used as a currency else where. Unstable fiat economies are and have been using Bitcoin as a currency.
Uncle Warren is not running the BRK portfolio, it's his two lieutenants, Ted Weschler and Todd Combs. I'm sure they discuss it around the desk with Warren but he is not making the decisions in a vacuum.
Outstanding show , but why does he use examples if you bought at the height it took you 14 years to B/E. Who buys just the one time at the peak and stops ?
Tech stocks are volatile. It's a bubble within a few month's timeframe. It's a bubble for overvalued junk because sh*t floats to the top. It's not a bubble for people who invested in some of these companies 5-10-15 years ago, and it likely won't be a bubble in another 10 years, even if you buy at the very top. In the case of semiconductors, they are cyclical but those cycles are short. The bottleneck is at the production level as foundries are operating at full capacity. At the moment, the world can't make enough chips to meet demand. It's not easy to replicate Nvidia's success. CUDA took 10 years to develop, barrier of entry on the hardware front is in the billions. They were positioned to capitalize on future technology. Competition will come, but that's stock picking for you. Very few companies are buy-and-hold-for-30-years stocks. And yet, plenty of other tech stocks are great picks for a 5-10 year investment.
I don't know how many times people have to hear this: China doesn't care about their stock market. They think of it like a casino. It's pure gambling to them and if they want to gamble, they'd sooner play Mah Jongg or go to Macau. When they invest it's in real estate.
I love seeing these ancient Street luminaries stumble when trying to discuss crypto. And while I believe Josh has an impressive understanding of finance, his limited grasp of Bitcoin is laughably poor.
Bitcoin serves a bigger purpose than just speculation. It serves to allow unbanked people to transfer large amounts of wealth without the banking system.
@@canadianmaplefan8079 I was talking to my neighbor today, and she was walking her French Bulldog puppy that she got from a rescue organization. She said that the breed, in the coloration of her puppy, goes for $12k. My first thought was, do we have too much money in this country? $12k? I consider that a lot of money.
Zach Wilson is the worst QB/play statistically in history per game by EPA/game and more traditional metrics. You can discuss Leaf and Russell as worse busts because of the media/off field/effort, etc. but regardless of circumstances Zach deserves a spot on the mount rushmore as the worst players ever drafted top 5 as a QB
Thanks to Carta for sponsoring this episode. See how Carta can simplify your equity plan management today by going to www.carta.com/compound.
I have a theory on why US and everyone else except China is going up - its the reallocation of assets from China to everywhere else.
You didn't Challenge him of His horrendeous track record even once. Empathic
Downtown Brown, I love the show and you have some of the best guests, but MAN if you guys could just let these guests SPEAK without the CNBC style interruptions, this could EASILY be the cornerstone of wall street/investment podcasts in North America. Not saying there shouldn't be pushback, (there should be) just let them complete their sentences, us viewers are listening to them!
Seriously. I love Batnick on other shows but he's awful on this show.
Oh no, I just started. Thanks for the warning. You are 100% right on Michael. I can only do Tuesday and Friday. Can't do anymore Michael.
Please start your own podcast and show us your brilliant interviewing skills.
Batnick needs ADD meds
Couldn't agree more. I really wanted to hear more from Bernstein. The constant interruptions ruined it for me.
Again and again you guys deliver with giants from the investment business and this show is yet another fine example of this. I agree with Bernstein that the risk to inflation is HIGHER. Though I didn't agree with everything I heard (learned), my favorite aspect about The Compound is that your guests can be counted on to share original and more thought-provoking views rather than just repeating the same old pedestrian crap that's regurgitated and recycled almost everywhere else. 🔥
Absolutely
Two great consecutive episodes!
Appreciate it!
Only podcast I follow. You guys keep killing it
You really need to get out more. There are far better channels.
Another great show. Love the whole bunch of them
Love the knowledge, guys, and appreciate the show 🫶✌️
Great stuff guys. One note. The natural humor and interplay you all exhibit is plenty. The Christopher M SMCI quip as an example. Great stuff. So leave the zany push button canned sound effects to the goofs in the drivetime radio shock jock realm and Cramer the clown. Please. You all are better than this. I am old. And I recommend this channel as a go to when asked for good content by thirsty young investors. The whole deck is just great. But more than once, I have been told that the goofball preprogrammed sound effects are " cringe" as the kids say. We are about to hand these youngins trillions. We want them hungry for good finance content. Lets not drive them away with boo- yahs and canned applause nonsense. Enough said. You guys rock. Great channel!
I really like the pre game warm ups.
Party On With The Compound! 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
Hey MWC, can you help me with the down payment on the Florida property Josh talked about?
@@cliffpeebles9705 Lol! Let's get him to pitch in with us! 🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳✌️✌️✌️✌️👍👍👍👍🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏 Please Josh! 🥳🥳🥳🥳
@@midwestcannabis And you can think of it as a time share with no payments and no maintenance fees forever. That baby of yours need a beach!
@@cliffpeebles9705 Now we're talk'in 🥳🥳
Hi algorithm. This is a great show
Algorithm go burr
Great show. It keeps getting better.
Doesn't get any better than this show. Thank you
This guy knows what he’s talking about. Bitcoin Core is not a currency and mainly just speculation. That’s why the Block Size wars happened back in 2017. The big blocker’s predictions about BTC becoming co-opted by Wall Street all came true. All they care about is number go up. Imagine being excited about a Bitcoin ETF
Excellent show. Carry on!!
Thank you for watching!
Josh on fire this week
Always
Its Fri yay with Compound and Friends!
Happy Friday Jeff!
Great show guys! I only got to watch him on CNBC.
Love the content, appreciate all your hard work.
Quality program
Thanks Chris!
For Big Tech, we could still be in the 1998 period rather than 2000 given where valuations are today: not that excessive.
Fantastic guest
Totally disagree. He says things that are wrong by factual standards.
Valuations were completely different in 2000 bubble though. Cisco and Nasdaq were trading at 100+ PE ratio then. The magnificent 7 are trading now at only 1/3 that.
I can't believe how this guy can be so confident when was wrong about the market for so long.
I guess confidence pays. 😎
I literally took Marlboro branded gear to elementary and middle school. Shout out to dad.
OMG! You would be sent home today. LOL (Full disclosure - My family was KY tobacco farmers)
Camel Joe gear rules!
@@michaelmiddleton3311 They knew how to make lung cancer sexy!
They still make it sexy. Nicotine pouches, electric cigarettes etc. Getting th kids hooked.
I’m not a smoker, but love the logo and colors of Marlboro. I looked recently on eBay for the old gear.
His perspective is that of a value investor which will forever impact his outlook. Has value not underperformed?
Awesome show, fellas!
Thank you!
Rich is one of my favorites 😊
It won’t be a bubble per se it will be a de consolidation and broadening out or shift from these names. Investors have been hiding out in these companies (given they make up over 20% of the market cap of the S&P 500) waiting for the next major move in technology to see if it’s one of them that capitalize on it or someone else. Either way these aren’t bad companies to own in the least look at the balance sheets and margins of Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Meta etc they can easily take care of their shareholders in buying back stock with the some hundreds of billions in free cash flow they generate, and I think as their growth inevitably slows that’s what they eventually will do.
Great show!!
Thanks!
Looking forward to you revisiting BTC with every ATH.
Great show! Y’all the best
Thank you
Richard Bernstein seems like a really nice guy
Red 🍎 🐼 Watching and Learning... Awesome Guest/GgRreatT Show... thankzz
Thanks David!
David! You picked a good one to watch.
Good show.
Great Show.. The BX Loves it..
Thanks Josh for the heads up on that property in FL. I just put my offer in. Wish me luck!
Lolz
@@jeffossola668 First time ever getting a Lolz. Thanks Jeff!
My wife and I just rode past the Donahue estate this morning. It's a really unique property. The buyer will tear down all existing improvements. I'm guessing it trades at $250MM+/-.
@@tmclean9 Looking at it online, I can't imagine the upkeep costs.
I think an Island in the south Pacific is cheaper.
Terrific show. Extremely educational and entertaining. I especially enjoyed the bitcoin discussion. It was comforting to know that an exceptional investor like Mr. Bernstein has the same opinion of bitcoin that I do - it’s nothing more than a digital space on a computer. A bitcoin owner’s only hope is that someone will pay a higher price for that digital space than the owner did.
It doesn't really matter what you think Bitcoin is or isn't. Bottom line is I started to buy when it was $18,000 My average is $25,900. It is now $52K, by the end of 2024 it will be 150K by 2030 it will hit $1 mil. I'm in my 70's do you really think it's important what BTC is? All I see is $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
I don’t think anyone really cares as long as we make money with it. I bought it last year at 20k and made more gains then you’ve probably ever made on an investment in that time frame
Really enjoyed today's guest! I don't wanna name any names 😅
Now the weekend can start!
#MarlboroMiles I about spit out my drink when I heard that. These guys are the best.
profound. The predictions were all correct about the internet, but the price was the most important factor.
Don't have FOMO. Have reason.
Carl Icahn said "show me a bubble and I will invest in it". I don't disagree with you at all, but playing with fire can be exhilarating.
And if your reason is wrong... switch the side of the trade you are on. Wanting or needing to be correct... gets a lot of trades and investors in trouble. I would rather be wrong and make money. The only way for that to happen is admit it.
One of the best shows . Michael was calm , no screaming or interrupting by him .
Some commentator I don't remember who, just recently made a remark that rates up to 5% are actually stimulative which explains the no recession, tight labor market economy. In my mind, that is not just because fixed income investors have more money to spend, but because investments are not made as lightly. Having to pay interest, or just missing out on some rate of interest by investing money other than in fixed income, means less speculation. Less speculation means more thoughtful investments, more efficient markets. But that aside, I've commented here almost year ago, no recession, and just a week ago, inflation is not moderating. I told my brokerage advisor in November rates will go higher. I think Josh is on board at least with the no cuts scenario. Thanks to Rich Bernstein for affirming. IMO Powell already made a policy error when he stopped raising rates in July.
Let me add, IMO the real reason for the "error" is SVB. Look at the St. Louis Fed chart of M2 money supply. It has been rising since April 2023. That is not the result of tightening monetary policy.
Awesome Show!
Bitcoin represents something other than a normal investment. It's a philosophical asset. He needs to rethink. It's not about returns it's about the governing structure of Bitcoin versus US government.
"Navigate the Noise" by Richard Bernstein is a must read for any investor.
Perfect motto for this show w their knack for interruptions!
Favorite book right now - Sapiens -Harari
bitcoin - there's absolutely nothing there! great take, HFSP
Nothing is valuable unless everyone else thinks it is
Mag 7 is grossly overvalued. This guy is spot on! Hype, hype, hype
Great episode, do you think that in the future we can get links to the Favorites everyone mentions in each episode? would help a lot
Damn that outtro crushed it
Just a reminder, when you compare the US Mag7 with the Europe Mag7, it‘s almost the same performance.
Very funny Josh re: super micro 😂
Palantir Tech is next to grow wild
Just listen to Josh's sign off, you can tell the dude was an MC in his past life. Smoothest outro on the internet
Great call on Bitcoin, Richard.
Let's goooooooooo 😊
Josh rocking the Daytona like a boss.
"He used it to keep the family together." 😂 That and the bigillion dollars in family dough. 😅
i know josh made talked about discover financials policies around holding a balance and compared them to capital one. problem is i cant find it, and i watch every show from here so it may not even be in this video. i know this is a big ask but can someone please help me?
Little Drummer Girl was made into a movie too. Le Carre spy novels are the best!
Get Michael Saylor on the pod and have him talk Bitcoin. Would be perfect timing with the BTC mania rn for the pod
A Double is a Bubble, so we’re still good.
That Marlboro Miles comment was funny but even Mike blushed at the embarrassment
47:42 Well done Michael 😂😂
The most important point is these are real companies unlike 1999! These companies PE goes down! The growth is not indicative of speculation but earning!
Great show! Just remember: inflation is a feature, not a bug. It helps nominal growth which translates to corporate profitability and makes the debt issue better. And politics does matter. 9/11, Iraq, and the global financial crisis were all on Bush. And he got hoodwinked in China. And that Texas Gov was responsible for Enron and $147 Oil... As for the American Psycho/Pump & Dump 1980s being the age of innocence... it's nice to roll old tapes and only remember the good times, not the heroine needles and crack addicts all along the streets of nyc... as for china, that is like Japan in 1988. they are getting booted from the first world trade club because they are theivery corp. and they won't stop, so don't sell crowdstrike. how they are going to butter their bread in the coming years on third world economies will be interesting to see...
Just because the United States and countries with stable fiat currencies don't use Bitcoin as a currency, doesn't mean it is not used as a currency else where. Unstable fiat economies are and have been using Bitcoin as a currency.
When’s Barry Sternlicht going to be on the show?
Uncle Warren is not running the BRK portfolio, it's his two lieutenants, Ted Weschler and Todd Combs. I'm sure they discuss it around the desk with Warren but he is not making the decisions in a vacuum.
Little Drummer Girl is excellent series w Florence Pugh, Alexander Skarsgard, Michael Shannon. Skarsgard at his best!
I’m guessing Ted or Todd sold Apple, not Warren. We will know in May.
Outstanding show , but why does he use examples if you bought at the height it took you 14 years to B/E. Who buys just the one time at the peak and stops ?
can you guys please interview cem karsan from kai volatility dude is brilliant and feel like it would be a banger show
Tech stocks are volatile. It's a bubble within a few month's timeframe. It's a bubble for overvalued junk because sh*t floats to the top. It's not a bubble for people who invested in some of these companies 5-10-15 years ago, and it likely won't be a bubble in another 10 years, even if you buy at the very top. In the case of semiconductors, they are cyclical but those cycles are short. The bottleneck is at the production level as foundries are operating at full capacity. At the moment, the world can't make enough chips to meet demand. It's not easy to replicate Nvidia's success. CUDA took 10 years to develop, barrier of entry on the hardware front is in the billions. They were positioned to capitalize on future technology. Competition will come, but that's stock picking for you. Very few companies are buy-and-hold-for-30-years stocks. And yet, plenty of other tech stocks are great picks for a 5-10 year investment.
crypto lives rent free in all of these peoples head, and its amazing. "its pure price" ....15 years later with 2 trillion in marketcap
But who cares, it can crash all it wants as long as the earnings…. Oh wait, there are none. Fuck off.
Non degens don't get it. Don't try to explain it. Tis' a thankless endeavor ❤
All these amateurs will buy in at the top just like last cycle 😂
A 2 trillion dollar market cap would only be a doubling for bitcoin over 15 years
You’re so funny. You priced bitcoin in terms of dollars to give it legitimacy.
I don't know how many times people have to hear this: China doesn't care about their stock market. They think of it like a casino. It's pure gambling to them and if they want to gamble, they'd sooner play Mah Jongg or go to Macau. When they invest it's in real estate.
rolling my laser eyes
I love seeing these ancient Street luminaries stumble when trying to discuss crypto. And while I believe Josh has an impressive understanding of finance, his limited grasp of Bitcoin is laughably poor.
What if they have a full understanding and you’ve imagined everything beyond that?
@@ManFrizzleLet’s discuss again in 18 months.
Another great show guys! Any interest in getting a guy like Anthony Pompliano on the show?
If youre scared, just say your scared.
None.
@@TheCompoundNews I can respect that. How bout those ADD meds for Batnick though.
Not surprised by the boomer take on BTC
Marlboro miles 😂😂😂
@@nortonantho yeah that's what I said ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
Bitcoin is a greater fool speculation. Period. No use or purpose otherwise.
Poor Einhorn! The new system refuses to be gamed.
In which way they think Google is a bubble, PE only 25, coca-cola is 24!😅
Gary Vee is going to buy the Jets
Bitcoin serves a bigger purpose than just speculation. It serves to allow unbanked people to transfer large amounts of wealth without the banking system.
But Bitcoin went up while financial conditions tightened for many months.
You should’ve asked Rosie how it feels to be wrong for more than a year.
Not yet a bubble, next Nvidia earnings will be fantastic
Buying the fraudulent data and reporting on it makes the purchaser and purveyor complicit in the fraud.
There is no point in having expensive house. You can only be in 1 room at one time.
@@cliffpeebles9705 Cliff material wealth has to become left behind
@@canadianmaplefan8079 I was talking to my neighbor today, and she was walking her French Bulldog puppy that she got from a rescue organization. She said that the breed, in the coloration of her puppy, goes for $12k. My first thought was, do we have too much money in this country? $12k? I consider that a lot of money.
Jordan Love didn't start for 3 years
Josh Brown is a genius and yet he can’t hold stocks
Richard effing Bernstein
Zach Wilson is the worst QB/play statistically in history per game by EPA/game and more traditional metrics. You can discuss Leaf and Russell as worse busts because of the media/off field/effort, etc. but regardless of circumstances Zach deserves a spot on the mount rushmore as the worst players ever drafted top 5 as a QB
He was brutal to listen to. I actually agree w most of what he said but damn it takes him awhile to make his points.
👍