In summary: 🐂 [a] Secular bull market is still intact. [b] Market is under correction (April & May volatile seasonal trend). Expect pullbacks within the range of 5% to 12% as part of the secular bull market. [c] Market is at a very OVERSOLD condition. VIX: 18.71 & put to call ratio: 1.00 (Extreme Fear) [d] Market pullbacks provides great opportunity to buy excellent businesses. Example - Apple, Google, Amazon, other stocks. [e] Focus on the long term. Corrections are necessary for longer term gains.
Honestly, I don't think these charts would have broken down if it were not for the Israel-Iran eternal conflict worsening; true, inflation is still a concern, but the overall conclusion is that it was tolerable and not too hot. This is all caused by war. Also, Chris, thanks for waiting to do the video after the close on Friday; this tells us much more. As this and every week, thank you! for the great analysis.
right now, we're seeing the difference between a 6 rate cut market and a 0 rate cut market... ...more rate cuts will be back on the table when the market drops low enough for the politicians to start loading back up...
IDK, IWM high of October 21, then a lower high on 03/28/24, should probably be respected. I'd look for a bounce, ie, some level of upside retracement,, but we have that Big Black Swan called the middle east which could lay an egg on any given day. The bears would have to take out 188 followed by 164 on IWM proceed with caution, as acceleration can happen much quicker on the downside ..
Aren't there too many red flags, especially the cloud on XLK turning red? Long-term averages take time to flip...but many short-term indicators have deteriorated significantly. With the 10% correction, the market has to jump back 18% to break even. Do you see NQ NVIDIA TSLA NFLX jump 18% this year from their Friday close? With big boys selling, I doubt it.
Big tech is trading extremely rich and Is priced for perfection. Also the earnings yield is 4.53% on the S&P and the PE on the S&P is 22 (both historically high). 10yr is at 5% so I think there will be more downside here. Probably a bounce, consolidation for a bit then go lower after this and next weeks earnings. This can get bad especially if recession concerns start looming. Y'all be safe out there.
Chris, your models rely heavily on comparisons between parts of the market but don't look at the overall market, so there's a deception. When all the market is going down the comparisons are not as relevant. I don't agree that the bull hasn't been hurt here. To me, risk is strong. I'm only 57% in right now, whereas a month ago I was 82% in. Your model is slowed by comparisons and you need to take a step back. Just because your model has a ton of data points doesn't mean it moves with the speed it needs.
The most relevant level is the anchor at 4004, which is the ES 4784 level. If we lose that It will be more than a correction. I believe that is where the liquidity switch is. Where ever it is, I believe it will have to be a level that can offer a bargain to the Dukes and still come back into a bullish stance before the election in November. I just don't see how such a manipulated market will be allowed to fail before the potato in chief gets one more shot at putting the final nail in the empires coffin.
Aren't dollars a dishonest false weights and measuring system? How can we measure accurately using dishonest false measures like the US dollar. Dow was 18 ounces of US Treasury gold in 1929 and still is 18 ounces of gold in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024. How can we measure accurately if we use dishonest weights and measures? Same true with housing.
obviously correct. You need to tell your boss you won't be paid in Dollars because it is a dishonest system. I am sure he'll be glad to pay you in gold. And your local shops will be very happy when you pay for groceries in gold, and you will be henceforth be known as an upstanding customer who no longer uses the dishonest currency.
@@martian9999 Stocks, bonds trade into IOUs for groceries. I am self employed, financially well off retired with gold and silver in my savings. It is the average person who will suffer when inflation doubles and doubles and doubles.
Chris Ciovacco, talking me off the ledge since 2016, which is when I started watching (I think)
Not sure if you read these comments but please never stop making these videos 🙏🏽
+1
In summary: 🐂
[a] Secular bull market is still intact.
[b] Market is under correction (April & May volatile seasonal trend). Expect pullbacks within the range of 5% to 12% as part of the secular bull market.
[c] Market is at a very OVERSOLD condition. VIX: 18.71 & put to call ratio: 1.00 (Extreme Fear)
[d] Market pullbacks provides great opportunity to buy excellent businesses. Example - Apple, Google, Amazon, other stocks.
[e] Focus on the long term. Corrections are necessary for longer term gains.
Appreciate you providing the Cliff Notes each week.
"Expect pullbacks," or "accept pullbacks," not "except pullbacks".
Thank you Chris and Kathy for your weekly analysis!
Honestly, I don't think these charts would have broken down if it were not for the Israel-Iran eternal conflict worsening; true, inflation is still a concern, but the overall conclusion is that it was tolerable and not too hot. This is all caused by war. Also, Chris, thanks for waiting to do the video after the close on Friday; this tells us much more. As this and every week, thank you! for the great analysis.
Inflation trade
Has been very satisfying
Nobody cares about Israel
Market internals have been correcting for months. If it wasn’t the war it would have been something else.
It’s not the war, it’s the obvious overbought condition of the market.
Thanks Chris-as always, great job of helping us put this drawdown in proper perspective 👍
This is my weekly routine. Saturday morning, coffee and Chris‘ Video of the week while wife and kids are still sleeping! 👍
Good job waiting till after the close.
FOMO, over trading, revenge trading, some of my favorite psychological techniques 🤣
Thanks Chris. Great analysis and information.
As always great update and insight of the markets !
Thanks. Market has everyone focused.
An excellent report. Cheers!
Thank you Chris.
Thank you!
right now, we're seeing the difference between a 6 rate cut market and a 0 rate cut market... ...more rate cuts will be back on the table when the market drops low enough for the politicians to start loading back up...
Thank You!
Awesome video!
thanks chris!
thank u so much
IDK, IWM high of October 21, then a lower high on 03/28/24, should probably be respected. I'd look for a bounce, ie, some level of upside retracement,, but we have that Big Black Swan called the middle east which could lay an egg on any given day. The bears would have to take out 188 followed by 164 on IWM proceed with caution, as acceleration can happen much quicker on the downside ..
that was fantastic
XLK broke uptrend now below 50ma heading down to 200ma or various levels of support
Has it happened yet?
We will definitely learn something
Yes, we will definitely learn something, either way!!! 😭😭😭
Time always tells..
@@dubbled7286 Why are you crying? Don't you know learning can be fun??? 😜
@@afonsodeportugal 😳🙄🤷🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️😭😭😭😎😉
Normal 2 or 3 freakout drops per bull run since 1978.
Aren't there too many red flags, especially the cloud on XLK turning red? Long-term averages take time to flip...but many short-term indicators have deteriorated significantly. With the 10% correction, the market has to jump back 18% to break even. Do you see NQ NVIDIA TSLA NFLX jump 18% this year from their Friday close? With big boys selling, I doubt it.
Big tech is trading extremely rich and Is priced for perfection. Also the earnings yield is 4.53% on the S&P and the PE on the S&P is 22 (both historically high). 10yr is at 5% so I think there will be more downside here. Probably a bounce, consolidation for a bit then go lower after this and next weeks earnings. This can get bad especially if recession concerns start looming. Y'all be safe out there.
What is your opinion on HYGH
Three straight weeks down.
Chris, your models rely heavily on comparisons between parts of the market but don't look at the overall market, so there's a deception. When all the market is going down the comparisons are not as relevant. I don't agree that the bull hasn't been hurt here. To me, risk is strong. I'm only 57% in right now, whereas a month ago I was 82% in. Your model is slowed by comparisons and you need to take a step back. Just because your model has a ton of data points doesn't mean it moves with the speed it needs.
The most relevant level is the anchor at 4004, which is the ES 4784 level. If we lose that It will be more than a correction. I believe that is where the liquidity switch is. Where ever it is, I believe it will have to be a level that can offer a bargain to the Dukes and still come back into a bullish stance before the election in November. I just don't see how such a manipulated market will be allowed to fail before the potato in chief gets one more shot at putting the final nail in the empires coffin.
if XLK does take a break then who is gonna carry the water?
Chris still sounds optimistic. Get ready for a lot more pain.
You sound like you missed the rally! 😂
@@Drew99GT You sound like you say "tiMe iN tHe mArkeT beAts TiMinG tHe mArkeT"
We will definitely learn something, either way!! 😳🙄😭😭😭
So true
@@onlydivergences which has proven to be the way time and time again.
the best model for comparison was 1929!
This analysis is strategic, as exercised by the vanguard. It is Eisenhower, not Rommel. Don’t you be trying to day trade this information, lol.
The moving averages that you use are so weird.
just an opinion
Aren't dollars a dishonest false weights and measuring system? How can we measure accurately using dishonest false measures like the US dollar. Dow was 18 ounces of US Treasury gold in 1929 and still is 18 ounces of gold in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024. How can we measure accurately if we use dishonest weights and measures? Same true with housing.
🤡
obviously correct. You need to tell your boss you won't be paid in Dollars because it is a dishonest system. I am sure he'll be glad to pay you in gold. And your local shops will be very happy when you pay for groceries in gold, and you will be henceforth be known as an upstanding customer who no longer uses the dishonest currency.
@@martian9999 Stocks, bonds trade into IOUs for groceries. I am self employed, financially well off retired with gold and silver in my savings. It is the average person who will suffer when inflation doubles and doubles and doubles.
@@martian9999 Obviously I use dollars but store gold for long term money, as well as rental real estate. Works for me.
He is bullish as normal, never bearish
Why would he be bearish? Long-term price action is not bearish at the present time...
he was quite worried in October. And I am sure if you look at videos of times of market distress, you'll see that he advises taking defensive action.