10 billion life forms on Earth and only ONE even knows they are on a Sphere. 400 billion stars in the Milky Way. So maybe I estimate just 40 intelligent life forms in the Milky Way over the last 13 billion years. The universe is "designed" to support life, no matter how hostile the environment.
I got to see saturn the other day on my friends telescope. I could see all the rings, even a few of its moons. It was magnified so well, it looked just like the pictures I've seen from nasa. I always knew the other planets are there, but when you see it for yourself like that it blows your mind. Seriously changed my outlook on things by witnessing that lol. Everyone should have a chance to look through a nice telescope sometime, and see the amazing things in our solar system.
I myself by watching NASA's picture of the planets gets awed by how they look and suddenly feels of being there by closing yours eyes. I get goosebumps.. 😍😍😍
Carl Sagan deserves a post-morten Nobel prize. Why ? He educated people in science as noone else.And he did it poetically, hence reaching feelings of of his audience.
Amazing how all Sagan's personal research ended with his death nearly 30 years ago, yet he still sounds more informed and in tune with his subject than most teachers, professors and UA-cam geniuses. A true futurist..♥️
Sagan was one of the greatest astroscience explainers of all time; but he was also a poet, one who made poems 0% cursi, 100% accurate, objective, factual but beautifully made of stardust nonetheless
Carl Sagan writes a Number 2 in a way that indicates he's excellent with facts and figures. The curl he puts in the bottom says it all. Here he is explaining a difficult maths equation that a 5 year old could understand. Honestly there is no one else like him. He was made of good star stuff.
I remember watching this episode when it came out. I was maybe 11 years old and I hung on EVERY word that Carl Sagan ever said. I watched each episode breathlessly. And I remember vividly the excitement that built inside me as he came down this equation step by step, with growing anticipation for a HUGE number in the end that would finally give me hope that we would (soon) come in contact with another intelligent planetary civilization. ...and then he revealed "10". I was crushed...
"its hardly out of the question that we could destroy ourselves tomorrow" as true now as it was then....maybe even more so. Carl Sagan, you were Genuis
Carl Sagan was not only a great scientist but also an epitome of a kind and real human-being, a great philanthropic philosopher, visionary technologist, a great moralistic teacher for human kind. .an irreplaceable scientist and technologist who devoted an important part of his activities to eliminate public ignorance arounf the globe by being a science populariser.. a real beacon for humanity for years to come!..I wish I had theinguistic powers to express his true greatness in everyday he was...
Beyond Fscinating. You can actually feel yourself getting more intelligent from watching this. RIP Carl. You and Patrick Moore have given us years of fascinating tv throughout the years.
Even if you were to take away his great knowledge and insight into astronomy and such, he would still be quite an amazing human being. He must have been a great teacher with his clarity and calmness. Loved Cosmos.
It's a thought experiment, a blueprint. We don't (yet) know the actual values of most of these variables, but the equation is a great way to start questioning our assumptions about the likelihood of other civilizations existing or not.
The Drake equation and the numbers Carl plugs into it are hypothetical. It's function is not to quantify the actual number of civilizations we might be able to communicate with. It is to show the enormous probability that we are not alone in the universe.
I wish Mr Sagan was alive today to see all the recent advances in astronomical science. I'd love to hear his incites, he had an incredible ability to make even the most complex ideas seem simple.
i love this video. it makes me feel much smarter than i really am because Sagan makes it easy to understand, even if it is a somewhat complected topic.
Well a lot of the assumptions he makes and takes are wrong. But less technology back then. There isnt life on Jupiter. And that life emerged rapidly and fast on the Earth. It didn't atleast a billon maybe even 2 billion years it took for life to form in whatever magma goo that was going on
The last number in the drake Equation FsubL, is the most important. Considering that no civilization has contacted us, it seems more probable that N is small, therefore more probably that FsubL is very tiny. This means life usually snuffs itself out after gaining nuclear technologies. That is what the Drake Equation really shows.
Jay Apple There are about 7 billion people on this earth of which I only contacted a couple of hundred(s) and a couple of hundred(s) contacted me during my lifetime so far. (many of which are the same). Doesn't mean that those billions of people I had no contact with or of who's existence I'm not even aware of don't exist.
hijothema no but you forget, that all thos people you have not contacted HAVE BEEN contacted by OTHER people. SInce we have been contacted by NOONE, my original comment stands.
Jay Apple No because the fact that they haven't contacted us doesn't mean they don't exist. It is even possible, theoretically, that they have contacted each other, maybe even have thriving relationships with trade and everything, because they live in relative short distance to each other but none of them ever contacted us because we live in some desolate place in the Galaxy, far away from them and with no intelligent live in our immediate vicinity.
hijothema ok, i dont want to argue with you. i really wish you would put your opinion in the context of the drake equation. maybe if i have an hour sometime, i will go through it and explain to you
I have always wondered what the world would be like if Sagan was still alive. What would he say of the thousands of planets found by the Kepler. With estimates in the billions of possible undiscovered earth sized planets in the habitable zone of a sun like star.
He'd probably be quite ecstatic about the discoveries. On the other hand I have a feeling that he'd be rather disappointed at the rampant stupidity on part of us as a species.
Sagan is truly wonderful, not for his intellect, but for his gift of communicating the wonders of science in a way that the general public can understand. Not a lot of people have that ability.
If there is one person that could represent us as a species to the possible E.T's out there then it would surely without the shred of a doubt be Carl Sagan. He will be missed dearly on earth.
@madman778 the drake equation sounds perfectly logical and plausable to me. yes, it does get lots of negative feedback much like the ideas of galileo and copernicus did during their time, but im sure that is to be expected in formulating this equation.
The one item that was not included in the Drake Equation, and maybe the most important one in regard to any possibility of our discovering intelligent life elsewhere in our galaxy, is "time". What is the chance that at this EXACT time another civilization will also be alive and communicable, let alone the discrepancy between when their communicable message left their planet and headed toward earth? The galaxy is 100,000 light years across and we are in a peripheral spiral. There might be N number as he suggests, but how many might exist right at this very moment in time? Although it was not the premise of the Drake Equation to estimate how many possible intelligent civilizations are out there right now, that number would have to be significantly smaller. It is a subject that I wish could be addressed by Sagan -- alas we miss him so much.
Exactly Bill. Not to mention if their civilization was so much more advanced, why do we think we would have the technology to discern their way of communication? Do they really have to use radio waves? Chances are they are far beyond using our methods of communication.
But that's what F subL addresses already. We can argue all day on why it may be more or less likely since the equation might not have taken into account non-carbon life for example.
BlueLaw I guess I have not expressed well what I mean by "EXACT time". His question is "How many advanced civilizations capable at least of radio technology are there in the Milky Way Galaxy?" Fl is the "fraction of a planet's lifetime that it is graced by a technical civilization". What is the chance that the two fractions of time (ours and another planet's) coincide with one another? In communicating with another civilization, that would definitely be a critical point. Yes, he says that perhaps some civilizations have figured out ways to not destroy themselves. Let's say that they are successful in not destroying themselves for a million years. When did those million years occur? A billion years ago or will it occur a 100 million years from now? Or even 100 years from now? If as he says there might have been "millions" of planets that are capable of technological life, has that happened in the past or will it happen in the future? There might have been "millions" that have existed somewhere in the past or will exist somewhere in the future as his equation points out. How many at this "EXACT time"?
Bill Vietti I'm going to assume you mean the timelines of when the planets themselves co-exist with each other. You can take us out of the equation since we're alive right now and that's an absolute but it works under the assumption that all planets are about the same age within the millions or so in the Milky Way(our solar system planets are about the same age) and that they have been existing with one another the whole time, therefore, Fl calculations of the fraction of how long life will or has been on a planet is equal to how likely they will be here atm. It's not as though the planets are likely to blow up so much as life destroying itself, it would be incorrect if many planets have existed and been blown up before our planet and vice versa. He did mention that the latter half of the equation is more so guesswork however so what I mentioned should be taken loosely. Edit: Actually, scratch the exact age part. It works well enough if the planets are here with us today since they're more than old enough for evolution and such and the dude says part of the calculation is for life arising on a planet "at least once" to boot. The Fl should still represent how likely the life timeline would exist now.
If we're alone out there at this time, I hope we will not destroy ourselves and populate the universe and create vast biological diversity on a vast number of planets, as would be our responsibility as the "forerunner species".
Via Wikipedia (paraphrased): Problem with the drake equation is that, as you move from left to right on the equation, your variables become guesses. There are variables that are not known and must simply be 'filled in'. It makes the possibilities go from 0 all the way to a billion depending on how you decide to 'fill in' the variables. Essentially, it's answers are anything, and therefore the equation is meaningless. Love that Carl Sagan tho!
It's not meant at this point in time to be an establishment for evidence of alien life but more as a way to see how these variables are put into place.
LifeOrbital Definitely see your point and I was mistaken by concluding that it is 'essentially meaningless'. I should have specified that the equation is currently not of much use if one is looking for concrete answers and in that sense it IS 'essentially meaningless'. Nonetheless, it's a very interesting subject and with time, as we are able to confirm variables that are nessicary for the equation, it will go from just being interesting to become confirmatory science. Didn't mean to sound like I was demeaning the Drake Equation though. It's funny how you read back on old comments and are able to see how something you said might be perceived differently from what you were thinking when you wrote it. Oh shucks to this old UA-cam machine... :)
Don Wilson You clearly have NO IDEA how wikipedia operates. Still believing the old wives tale about how "anyone can go put anything up on wikipedia anytime they want...etc." Please use the homosapien brain you're privileged to be born with and think for yourself.
It is amazing ( to me at least ) how many "commenters" out there in cyber-reader land do not understand the Drake Equation . The equation is not ( nor meant to be ) absolute . Obviously, Sagan understood. Sagan himself used the term "estimates" ... do these critics not "see" this ?? Listen again, "knee-jerkers" !!!
What we do to other species on this planet we eventually do to ourselves... unless we start treating other species as equals.. we will never survive and colonize space and other planets.
We've been known to destroy indigenous humans, who knows what we'll do to alien life. We very likely will be the evil murderous aliens we see in movies.
Airik I never said any of that. I simply said that as humans we show up to a new area with a new species of humans and slaughter THEM the HUMANS. I was simply saying that I don't know what would stop us from doing that to aliens. I eat meat and I'm all for survival being the determining factor of us today. I was just talking about how movies show aliens coming and attacking us when in reality I can see it being the other way around.
There are tons of alien civilizations that talk to each other, they have formed a federation, but we do not know of it because their prime directive is to not communicate or interfere with a planet's natural progression until we're ethically and technologically ready for communication. In Star Trek, Vulcan didn't communicate with Earth until they achieved warp drive, and in the Next Generation a message was found encoded in all living thing's DNA that was presumably encoded by one of the very first advanced civilizations. I doubt aliens are waiting for us to develop FTL travel, I assume they already see us as technologically ready, but right now we are not mature enough for contact. I think humanity needs to get over things like racism and sexism, and stop fighting if we want to join the federation. We need to truly love each other and live in harmony. Then again, this is just my speculation and I could be totally wrong, just a fun thing to think about, that we're periodically observed by beings smarter than us.
NinetyPercentJesus Exactly. No developed and well-mannered alien species is going to accept humans as a reasonable race. Because the majority of human population is made up of idiots. Most people live their lives for money , most people let religion decide for them , most people differentiate each other because of races/colors/sexual choices. And we never stop waging war on each other. I think humans are an evil form of life. Delighted in the manipulation of others to achieve self comfort. And if i were in the commanding position of a reasonable , technologically advanced alien civilization , i would tell my crew " None of you will make contact with humans , let them kill each other and their planet out. "
I never liked this equation. there are so many more variables that aren't in the drake equation. Life is probably everywhere. Intelligent life that is able to build civilizations and that exists at the same time that we do and that we would ever be able to be in contact with is just about 0. not 0 but close to it. of course I hope im wrong.
Airik One main variable is the existence of a large moon like ours. It's speculated the tidal action of the moon contributed to the development of early bacteria in small ponds and the moon acts as a rotation stabilizer, making it so that our planet doesn't wildly tilt on its axis, disrupting the climate. Without a moon exactly like ours, higher forms of life would be virtually impossible.
+zestyorangez Of course we could be the only intelligent beings in our galaxy or even the universe. The intriguing hypothesis/theory* that attempts to refute this way of thinking is that life is a pattern and like all patterns they will eventually be repeated at some place at some time statistically. The simpler the pattern the shorter the distance and time span you have to travel. For instance, I could pick 5 atoms in a specific arrangement and sooner or later I would find the same pattern disregarding The Uncertainty Principle. By this principle in probably one hundred googol years and light years (I don't know the exact calculations) the chance of finding an exact copy of earth with the exact same lifeforms and history would actually increase. That is pointless speculation, but the point still stands that just finding a pattern of RNA/DNA and therefore life is low when going star-to-star but high when considering the massive amount of existing stars with the fact that new stars 'constantly' being created (I don't mean stars are created in seconds) *I don't feel like calling it either a hypothesis or a theory because while this has not and perhaps never will be proven on large scales like I mentioned, I believe it has been proven on small scales.
I agree with your take on it, the time that a civilization exists in, during the entirety of eternity , would be a huge factor. If you take that into account , If any two civilizations come together at all, one of the two would be a fossil. just my humble opinion
A great scientist, visionary and storytaller. It is a pity that the world does not have today a scientist of his caliber to keep inspiring young people to become scientists and give simple answers to very complicated problems. If the world had listened better to him 40 years ago we would have fewer problems with climate change today. He has a place in the Pantheon of the brightest scientist minds of the 20th century
we are learning today that the Drake Equation is at best a minimal synopses of what may be a tremendous value for the possible creation of life in or on other planetary locations, no matter how far away they are. The idea that on some far distant planet some other civilization may be pondering the very same things that we do is actually possible. I think that is fantastic!
I hate to say it, but Carl made a mistake at 4:05... he says that if each planetary system has ten planets we would have 100 billion planets, then estimates 2 planets per system as being able to sustain life.... then multiplies 100 billion by 2.... that's incorrect (and I'm not even very good at math... it should be 100 billion times (2/10) (only two out of every ten... not two times ten)
No, you are wrong. He says there are 100 billion planetary systems, NOT planets. The numbers he uses are: 400 billion stars in our galaxy, and only 1/4 have planets, meaning 100 billion planetary systems, of which EACH one has TWO planets that can sustain life = 200 billion.
This whole video could be quoted in someone's facebook status. Particularly, "It's not out of the question that we may destroy ourselves tomorrow." Chillingly accurate, 40 or 50 years later.
I agree wholeheartedly with your approach to probabilities. I have never carried a weapon in a public place and have consequently been killed on a number of occasions.
By the time Carl Sagan do this video, many things have happened. We're in the middle of nuclear catastrophes but at the same time, there is a fast pace growing number of human awareness. By this time (2022) connected human consciousness is more and more, evident. Millions of humans beings are aware of our position in the universe and why we still have not ready to enter in this vast community of stellar civilizations. But the time will come when this lonely feeling (embedded in Carl's message) will be gone. Let's continue working together.
"There are an enormous number of stars." uh, is that THE most understated fact ever made by a human? Enormous? I don't think there is a word or group of words that can adequately describe how many stars there are in the universe.
As a resident of Puerto Rico is sad to see at the end of this video the image of the Arecibo Radio Telescope that collapsed a couple of years ago due to neglect and never to be rebuilt. Yeah Carl, you were right, we are one of those civilizations destined to destroy itself.
The Drake equation needs more factors. For example, it assumes that if a civilization has the technology and lifespan, it would even want to contact us.
It's funny to look back a Sagan's videos and watch him reference the impending doom of nuclear weapons. I'm glad he lived to see the end of the Cold War.
It's amazing. We chose life like this guy pleaded. We are well on our way to changing our ways. We've got a way to go, but at least we're moving that way. It's amazing how much we have progressed in the 22 years since the cold war ended.
A brilliant scientist with the soul of a poet. We were blessed by his presence and lessened by his passing.
Absolutely agree..
He had a different look to Physics that Einstein had. Both great scientist.
Einstein X William Blake.
very well said
That's the best description of him that I've ever read. No scientist who presents documentaries alive today can match him.
10 billion life forms on Earth and only ONE even knows they are on a Sphere. 400 billion stars in the Milky Way. So maybe I estimate just 40 intelligent life forms in the Milky Way over the last 13 billion years. The universe is "designed" to support life, no matter how hostile the environment.
GOOSEBUMPS WHENEVER I HEAR SAGAN SPEAK
Ah... Mr Anderson...
I got to see saturn the other day on my friends telescope. I could see all the rings, even a few of its moons. It was magnified so well, it looked just like the pictures I've seen from nasa. I always knew the other planets are there, but when you see it for yourself like that it blows your mind. Seriously changed my outlook on things by witnessing that lol. Everyone should have a chance to look through a nice telescope sometime, and see the amazing things in our solar system.
I myself by watching NASA's picture of the planets gets awed by how they look and suddenly feels of being there by closing yours eyes. I get goosebumps.. 😍😍😍
Can I come over and see ir through your friends telescope
Carl Sagan deserves a post-morten Nobel prize. Why ? He educated people in science as noone else.And he did it poetically, hence reaching feelings of of his audience.
Amazing how all Sagan's personal research ended with his death nearly 30 years ago, yet he still sounds more informed and in tune with his subject than most teachers, professors and UA-cam geniuses. A true futurist..♥️
Sagan was one of the greatest astroscience explainers of all time; but he was also a poet, one who made poems 0% cursi, 100% accurate, objective, factual but beautifully made of stardust nonetheless
I remember watching this as a kid. It still inspires today. One of the few things in life that sets the mind free.
You couldn't have said it better 👌
Carl Sagan writes a Number 2 in a way that indicates he's excellent with facts and figures. The curl he puts in the bottom says it all. Here he is explaining a difficult maths equation that a 5 year old could understand. Honestly there is no one else like him. He was made of good star stuff.
I remember watching this episode when it came out. I was maybe 11 years old and I hung on EVERY word that Carl Sagan ever said. I watched each episode breathlessly. And I remember vividly the excitement that built inside me as he came down this equation step by step, with growing anticipation for a HUGE number in the end that would finally give me hope that we would (soon) come in contact with another intelligent planetary civilization. ...and then he revealed "10". I was crushed...
I would be honoured to meet him in person. Incredible scientist.
this guy's great, rest in peace buddy
"its hardly out of the question that we could destroy ourselves tomorrow"
as true now as it was then....maybe even more so. Carl Sagan, you were Genuis
Carl Sagan was not only a great scientist but also an epitome of a kind and real human-being, a great philanthropic philosopher, visionary technologist, a great moralistic teacher for human kind. .an irreplaceable scientist and technologist who devoted an important part of his activities to eliminate public ignorance arounf the globe by being a science populariser.. a real beacon for humanity for years to come!..I wish I had theinguistic powers to express his true greatness in everyday he was...
Beyond Fscinating.
You can actually feel yourself getting more intelligent from watching this.
RIP
Carl.
You and Patrick Moore have given us years of fascinating tv throughout the years.
Even if you were to take away his great knowledge and insight into astronomy and such, he would still be quite an amazing human being. He must have been a great teacher with his clarity and calmness. Loved Cosmos.
Carl is a fine example on how to be a fine human being... He is missed and remembered...
It's a thought experiment, a blueprint. We don't (yet) know the actual values of most of these variables, but the equation is a great way to start questioning our assumptions about the likelihood of other civilizations existing or not.
The Drake equation and the numbers Carl plugs into it are hypothetical. It's function is not to quantify the actual number of civilizations we might be able to communicate with. It is to show the enormous probability that we are not alone in the universe.
I’d say the enormous probability is that we’re alone not only in the Milky Way, but in the entire universe. We are hugely improbable
@@GuidossInnitremember there is almost certainly non intelligent life out there so there could be intelligent life
I wish Mr Sagan was alive today to see all the recent advances in astronomical science. I'd love to hear his incites, he had an incredible ability to make even the most complex ideas seem simple.
To this day, I still regard Cosmos as the greatest ever series made for television.
i love this video. it makes me feel much smarter than i really am because Sagan makes it easy to understand, even if it is a somewhat complected topic.
Well a lot of the assumptions he makes and takes are wrong. But less technology back then. There isnt life on Jupiter. And that life emerged rapidly and fast on the Earth. It didn't atleast a billon maybe even 2 billion years it took for life to form in whatever magma goo that was going on
Complected?
This was my favorite part of the old Cosmos. Incredible.
The last number in the drake Equation FsubL, is the most important. Considering that no civilization has contacted us, it seems more probable that N is small, therefore more probably that FsubL is very tiny. This means life usually snuffs itself out after gaining nuclear technologies. That is what the Drake Equation really shows.
Jay Apple There are about 7 billion people on this earth of which I only contacted a couple of hundred(s) and a couple of hundred(s) contacted me during my lifetime so far. (many of which are the same). Doesn't mean that those billions of people I had no contact with or of who's existence I'm not even aware of don't exist.
hijothema
no but you forget, that all thos people you have not contacted HAVE BEEN contacted by OTHER people. SInce we have been contacted by NOONE, my original comment stands.
Jay Apple
No because the fact that they haven't contacted us doesn't mean they don't exist. It is even possible, theoretically, that they have contacted each other, maybe even have thriving relationships with trade and everything, because they live in relative short distance to each other but none of them ever contacted us because we live in some desolate place in the Galaxy, far away from them and with no intelligent live in our immediate vicinity.
hijothema
ok, i dont want to argue with you. i really wish you would put your opinion in the context of the drake equation. maybe if i have an hour sometime, i will go through it and explain to you
Check out the Fermi paradox - particularly "It is dangerous to communicate"
An outstanding scientist and a Wanderer, a curious soul and yes, a Poet. I look forward to the day we venture to the stars. With love, Jacob Sevall
I have always wondered what the world would be like if Sagan was still alive. What would he say of the thousands of planets found by the Kepler. With estimates in the billions of possible undiscovered earth sized planets in the habitable zone of a sun like star.
He'd probably be quite ecstatic about the discoveries.
On the other hand I have a feeling that he'd be rather disappointed at the rampant stupidity on part of us as a species.
maybe if we still had sagan certain individuals may not have been elected into power, if ya kno what i'm sayin
Sagan is truly wonderful, not for his intellect, but for his gift of communicating the wonders of science in a way that the general public can understand. Not a lot of people have that ability.
He is so awesome. He is interesting and good at explaining
Carl Sagon rocked. I never missed Cosmos.
This is, perhaps, one of my favourite clips from Cosmos. Marvellously explained.
If there is one person that could represent us as a species to the possible E.T's out there then it would surely without the shred of a doubt be Carl Sagan.
He will be missed dearly on earth.
Drake... the rapper.
And his Equation.
I can remember the moment I learned of the Drake Equation reading Sagan's book. It was mind blowing.
I love you, Carl Sagan!
@madman778 the drake equation sounds perfectly logical and plausable to me. yes, it does get lots of negative feedback much like the ideas of galileo and copernicus did during their time, but im sure that is to be expected in formulating this equation.
The one item that was not included in the Drake Equation, and maybe the most important one in regard to any possibility of our discovering intelligent life elsewhere in our galaxy, is "time". What is the chance that at this EXACT time another civilization will also be alive and communicable, let alone the discrepancy between when their communicable message left their planet and headed toward earth? The galaxy is 100,000 light years across and we are in a peripheral spiral. There might be N number as he suggests, but how many might exist right at this very moment in time? Although it was not the premise of the Drake Equation to estimate how many possible intelligent civilizations are out there right now, that number would have to be significantly smaller. It is a subject that I wish could be addressed by Sagan -- alas we miss him so much.
Exactly Bill. Not to mention if their civilization was so much more advanced, why do we think we would have the technology to discern their way of communication? Do they really have to use radio waves? Chances are they are far beyond using our methods of communication.
But that's what F subL addresses already. We can argue all day on why it may be more or less likely since the equation might not have taken into account non-carbon life for example.
BlueLaw I guess I have not expressed well what I mean by "EXACT time". His question is "How many advanced civilizations capable at least of radio technology are there in the Milky Way Galaxy?" Fl is the "fraction of a planet's lifetime that it is graced by a technical civilization". What is the chance that the two fractions of time (ours and another planet's) coincide with one another? In communicating with another civilization, that would definitely be a critical point. Yes, he says that perhaps some civilizations have figured out ways to not destroy themselves. Let's say that they are successful in not destroying themselves for a million years. When did those million years occur? A billion years ago or will it occur a 100 million years from now? Or even 100 years from now? If as he says there might have been "millions" of planets that are capable of technological life, has that happened in the past or will it happen in the future? There might have been "millions" that have existed somewhere in the past or will exist somewhere in the future as his equation points out. How many at this "EXACT time"?
Bill Vietti
I'm going to assume you mean the timelines of when the planets themselves co-exist with each other.
You can take us out of the equation since we're alive right now and that's an absolute but it works under the assumption that all planets are about the same age within the millions or so in the Milky Way(our solar system planets are about the same age) and that they have been existing with one another the whole time, therefore, Fl calculations of the fraction of how long life will or has been on a planet is equal to how likely they will be here atm. It's not as though the planets are likely to blow up so much as life destroying itself, it would be incorrect if many planets have existed and been blown up before our planet and vice versa.
He did mention that the latter half of the equation is more so guesswork however so what I mentioned should be taken loosely.
Edit: Actually, scratch the exact age part. It works well enough if the planets are here with us today since they're more than old enough for evolution and such and the dude says part of the calculation is for life arising on a planet "at least once" to boot. The Fl should still represent how likely the life timeline would exist now.
If we're alone out there at this time, I hope we will not destroy ourselves and populate the universe and create vast biological diversity on a vast number of planets, as would be our responsibility as the "forerunner species".
Pure Legend. I miss him so much
Indeed. This man is inspiration for so many people.
Via Wikipedia (paraphrased): Problem with the drake equation is that, as you move from left to right on the equation, your variables become guesses. There are variables that are not known and must simply be 'filled in'. It makes the possibilities go from 0 all the way to a billion depending on how you decide to 'fill in' the variables. Essentially, it's answers are anything, and therefore the equation is meaningless. Love that Carl Sagan tho!
thats the cool part about it. Not to mention it tells you a lot about how you perceive human/intelligent beings nature
It's not meant at this point in time to be an establishment for evidence of alien life but more as a way to see how these variables are put into place.
LifeOrbital
Definitely see your point and I was mistaken by concluding that it is 'essentially meaningless'. I should have specified that the equation is currently not of much use if one is looking for concrete answers and in that sense it IS 'essentially meaningless'. Nonetheless, it's a very interesting subject and with time, as we are able to confirm variables that are nessicary for the equation, it will go from just being interesting to become confirmatory science. Didn't mean to sound like I was demeaning the Drake Equation though. It's funny how you read back on old comments and are able to see how something you said might be perceived differently from what you were thinking when you wrote it. Oh shucks to this old UA-cam machine... :)
The very act and statement that you quote Wikipedia, dropped any credence or validity that your comment made.
Don Wilson
You clearly have NO IDEA how wikipedia operates. Still believing the old wives tale about how "anyone can go put anything up on wikipedia anytime they want...etc." Please use the homosapien brain you're privileged to be born with and think for yourself.
Literally fell out of my chair laughing at this chain. Thank you so much everyone.
Literally laughing?
@@lostdaze1145 fucks sake, 8 years later?
@@valikkster one more Follower Dominic 8 years later, ducks drake you finally finished that pond?
This is simply fascinating!!
Amazing video, thankyou for sharing this wealth
It is amazing ( to me at least ) how many "commenters" out there in cyber-reader land
do not understand the Drake Equation .
The equation is not ( nor meant to be ) absolute . Obviously, Sagan understood.
Sagan himself used the term "estimates" ... do these critics not "see" this ??
Listen again, "knee-jerkers" !!!
What we do to other species on this planet we eventually do to ourselves... unless we start treating other species as equals.. we will never survive and colonize space and other planets.
We've been known to destroy indigenous humans, who knows what we'll do to alien life. We very likely will be the evil murderous aliens we see in movies.
Airik I never said any of that. I simply said that as humans we show up to a new area with a new species of humans and slaughter THEM the HUMANS. I was simply saying that I don't know what would stop us from doing that to aliens. I eat meat and I'm all for survival being the determining factor of us today. I was just talking about how movies show aliens coming and attacking us when in reality I can see it being the other way around.
Laughter is good for the soul, glad I could be part of it! I kind of got a kick out of what was a bit of a triple entendre.
That was amazing
DIS NIGGA REALLY SPEAKS TO ME
ugh.
There are tons of alien civilizations that talk to each other, they have formed a federation, but we do not know of it because their prime directive is to not communicate or interfere with a planet's natural progression until we're ethically and technologically ready for communication. In Star Trek, Vulcan didn't communicate with Earth until they achieved warp drive, and in the Next Generation a message was found encoded in all living thing's DNA that was presumably encoded by one of the very first advanced civilizations.
I doubt aliens are waiting for us to develop FTL travel, I assume they already see us as technologically ready, but right now we are not mature enough for contact. I think humanity needs to get over things like racism and sexism, and stop fighting if we want to join the federation. We need to truly love each other and live in harmony.
Then again, this is just my speculation and I could be totally wrong, just a fun thing to think about, that we're periodically observed by beings smarter than us.
My sentence needs more clarity, Vulcan didn't communicate with Earth until WE achieved warp drive.
You watch too much TV.
Don Wilson I haven't watched TV in forever
NinetyPercentJesus Exactly. No developed and well-mannered alien species is going to accept humans as a reasonable race. Because the majority of human population is made up of idiots. Most people live their lives for money , most people let religion decide for them , most people differentiate each other because of races/colors/sexual choices. And we never stop waging war on each other.
I think humans are an evil form of life. Delighted in the manipulation of others to achieve self comfort.
And if i were in the commanding position of a reasonable , technologically advanced alien civilization , i would tell my crew " None of you will make contact with humans , let them kill each other and their planet out. "
I LOVE Star Trek TNG :)
This is the best video I have ever watched on UA-cam
hopefully there are millions of them! so much more interesting for a story perspective!
I never liked this equation. there are so many more variables that aren't in the drake equation. Life is probably everywhere. Intelligent life that is able to build civilizations and that exists at the same time that we do and that we would ever be able to be in contact with is just about 0. not 0 but close to it. of course I hope im wrong.
Airik
One main variable is the existence of a large moon like ours. It's speculated the tidal action of the moon contributed to the development of early bacteria in small ponds and the moon acts as a rotation stabilizer, making it so that our planet doesn't wildly tilt on its axis, disrupting the climate. Without a moon exactly like ours, higher forms of life would be virtually impossible.
Airik What impact different religions would have on the willingness to develop technology by different civilizations?
theproplady just because life developed on earth that way doesn't mean it's required for all planets.
+zestyorangez Of course we could be the only intelligent beings in our galaxy or even the universe. The intriguing hypothesis/theory* that attempts to refute this way of thinking is that life is a pattern and like all patterns they will eventually be repeated at some place at some time statistically. The simpler the pattern the shorter the distance and time span you have to travel. For instance, I could pick 5 atoms in a specific arrangement and sooner or later I would find the same pattern disregarding The Uncertainty Principle. By this principle in probably one hundred googol years and light years (I don't know the exact calculations) the chance of finding an exact copy of earth with the exact same lifeforms and history would actually increase. That is pointless speculation, but the point still stands that just finding a pattern of RNA/DNA and therefore life is low when going star-to-star but high when considering the massive amount of existing stars with the fact that new stars 'constantly' being created (I don't mean stars are created in seconds)
*I don't feel like calling it either a hypothesis or a theory because while this has not and perhaps never will be proven on large scales like I mentioned, I believe it has been proven on small scales.
I agree with your take on it, the time that a civilization exists in, during the entirety of eternity , would be a huge factor. If you take that into account , If any two civilizations come together at all, one of the two would be a fossil. just my humble opinion
Yes but technological ≠ intelligent...
How?
Maybe _wisdom_ is a better word than intelligence regarding if and how we avoid being destroyed by our technology.
@@dragospahontu I mean we like to think of ourselves as technological but I wouldn't call most of Humanity 'Intelligent'
Being a kid in late 79/80's with some awakening.
A great scientist, visionary and storytaller. It is a pity that the world does not have today a scientist of his caliber to keep inspiring young people to become scientists and give simple answers to very complicated problems. If the world had listened better to him 40 years ago we would have fewer problems with climate change today. He has a place in the Pantheon of the brightest scientist minds of the 20th century
Truly beautiful mind!
I was about twelve years old when I started reading H.P. Lovecraft and since then contacting alien civilization has been a nightmare of mine.
Carl Sagans best studies of the universe!
Exactly!
Awesome
Cheers man!.
im so lucky to find it video im amazed
i love you carl sagan
Carl Sagan - Cosmos
my favorite doco
You, my friend, are brilliant :D
LEGEND !!!!!! r.i.p.
amazing open mind
That was an amazingly fast response.
Carl Rocks
I'm with you on this one
thank you very much for enlightening that man's mind a little bit
This is one helluva thing to listen to whilst playing Spore.
This is the greatest thing on the internet..
فن التعامل مع الاشياء....شكرا كارل
What an intellect, what an orator; he lit the fuse of curiosity in all if us as teenagers.
we are learning today that the Drake Equation is at best a minimal synopses of what may be a tremendous value for the possible creation of life in or on other planetary locations, no matter how far away they are. The idea that on some far distant planet some other civilization may be pondering the very same things that we do is actually possible. I think that is fantastic!
I hate to say it, but Carl made a mistake at 4:05... he says that if each planetary system has ten planets we would have 100 billion planets, then estimates 2 planets per system as being able to sustain life.... then multiplies 100 billion by 2.... that's incorrect (and I'm not even very good at math... it should be 100 billion times (2/10) (only two out of every ten... not two times ten)
well, give or take a few!
No, you are wrong. He says there are 100 billion planetary systems, NOT planets. The numbers he uses are: 400 billion stars in our galaxy, and only 1/4 have planets, meaning 100 billion planetary systems, of which EACH one has TWO planets that can sustain life = 200 billion.
YES. YES YES.
this just aroused my curiosity even more
Mind = Blown
Sagan's the man.
Science and Technology has progressed so much since his passing. If he were alive now he would be in awe.
I love you Carl Sagan,I love you so much
This whole video could be quoted in someone's facebook status. Particularly, "It's not out of the question that we may destroy ourselves tomorrow." Chillingly accurate, 40 or 50 years later.
The Whole Universe Is A very Big Place Indeed...Keep Lookin Space Will Never End....
I agree wholeheartedly with your approach to probabilities.
I have never carried a weapon in a public place and have consequently been killed on a number of occasions.
By the time Carl Sagan do this video, many things have happened. We're in the middle of nuclear catastrophes but at the same time, there is a fast pace growing number of human awareness. By this time (2022) connected human consciousness is more and more, evident. Millions of humans beings are aware of our position in the universe and why we still have not ready to enter in this vast community of stellar civilizations. But the time will come when this lonely feeling (embedded in Carl's message) will be gone. Let's continue working together.
"There are an enormous number of stars." uh, is that THE most understated fact ever made by a human? Enormous? I don't think there is a word or group of words that can adequately describe how many stars there are in the universe.
Very true.
I went from listening to Drake to watching this and i genuinly enjoyed it.
It is pretty mind blowing. :)
As a resident of Puerto Rico is sad to see at the end of this video the image of the Arecibo Radio Telescope that collapsed a couple of years ago due to neglect and never to be rebuilt. Yeah Carl, you were right, we are one of those civilizations destined to destroy itself.
Another victim of 2020!
Yes. And as I say, years of neglect, victim of lack of much needed funding to withstand almost 60 years of tropical weather
Carl Sagan will now be my physics teacher for the summer.
"Unforgivable Neglect" how true.
Holy shit. You are insane my friend.
The Drake equation needs more factors. For example, it assumes that if a civilization has the technology and lifespan, it would even want to contact us.
Such a significant man on a such an insignificant planet.
Every living moment of your life and the next guy's is a memory, if we weren't already living in the past we wouldn't know anything.
What a mind.
Yes, when he said that the way he did I shook my head.
@JokerFan252
You genuinely made me lol, I thank you for that good sir.
It's funny to look back a Sagan's videos and watch him reference the impending doom of nuclear weapons. I'm glad he lived to see the end of the Cold War.
HOW ABOUT NOW?
Imagine Carl Sagan working with the James Webb telescope findings!!!!
It's amazing. We chose life like this guy pleaded. We are well on our way to changing our ways. We've got a way to go, but at least we're moving that way. It's amazing how much we have progressed in the 22 years since the cold war ended.
I see that this comment was made 12 years ago. What do you think about the progress that we've made so far now?