This HASN’T Happened To The Market In Almost 50 Years...
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- Опубліковано 19 кві 2024
- The last time we similarly saw spreads narrow like this was in the 1960s and early 1970s, and now hotter economic data could send rates soaring, taking stock prices with them.
#rates #sp500 #spx #spy
Please check out my content on Substack and Seeking Alpha:
www.themarketchronicle.com/
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#sp500 #stocks #stockmarket #cpi #fed #qqq #spy #rates
Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment. - Розваги
My latest weekend write-up :
This Week's GDP And PCE Reports May Bring More Pain To The Market
seekingalpha.com/article/4684930-gdp-pce-may-bring-more-pain-to-market
#spx #ndx
You are among a handful of analysts worth listening to on UA-cam. Keep up the good work!
Appreciate that
Totally agree. Add ARETE TRADE to your watch list as well. These channels are the real deal.
Yes he is the Best I have seen till date we have all dumb guys in MSNBC or they want us to hear nonsense dumb shit
The fact that all stars had to align for this reversal to happen is insane!
The FED should be ashamed by the mixed messages they have sent up until this point.
They acted irresponsibly in my opinion because all they had to do was increase rates adequately and tapper over a longer timeframe.
All those gains gone in 1 week is hilarious and very appropriate.
Mike - you’ve been calling this for a minute. Thanks for maintaining your integrity in the midst of opposing views.
This is becoming my go to financial UA-cam channel. Always lots of good no nonsense information. Thank you.
Great to hear!
Stunning commentary! Well done, great concrete information. Looking at the gears that drive our economy and monetary system. Enjoyed it Mike thank you!
Glad you enjoyed it!
Always appreciate your insights.
Thanks
Excellent analysis. I’ve learned a lot more about how rates and equities tango and it’s far more fascinating than charts alone.
Bro your the real deal. Glad I found you.
Thoughtful, logical, well telegraphed information with supporting data. This should be a multi-million subscriber channel.
Great commentary. You are one of the few macro people with a delineated enough perspective to look at short term economic data releases in terms of rates, spreads and equity prices. Truly a great follow.
What a great video. Explains what happened over the past few months and what we need to look for going forward with respect to rates and markets. Thank you sir!
First time stopping by the channel. Great info. Thanks 🙏🏻
Awesome, thank you!
Thanks for watching!
Great info and great breakdown of how it is all correlated. Thank you!
Thanks for your work. Really like what you teach. Subbed and liked 👍.
Awesome, thank you!
out of the top 100 SPX tickers, about 70 were trading positive on friday. NVDA is bringing the entire market down with it. If it goes back to 500, the market is going with it.
Good work my friend. I like your particular analysis on inflation numbers.
Thanks, well done👍
No problem 👍
really appreciate the insight and sharing of information, always great content!
My pleasure!
I appreciate that!
Thank you
You're welcome
Mike your analysis is brilliant! CNBC really needs to book you for one of their “Where’s The Market Going” segments.
Their average current guests with the exception of 1 or 2, want to keep the ra ra ra narrative that the markets are going higher forever. Much to the detriment of the average retail trader. Have a great weekend!
I just subscribed. Agree that inflation is probably going up Wasteful government spending and restrictions on the energy industry
Thank you Mike!
Solid analysis. But my question is what if corporations' can completely pass the inflation down to their customers, and their earning growth rate can stay above the real rate of the 10Yr?
Great video, thanks!
You're welcome!
Many thanks for your insights Mike.
Thanks
No problem
Great work as usual! Do you also look at shelter for inflation? :)
Excellent. Thank you Michael 🙏
Glad you enjoyed it
This is one of the most important things i watch every day .thank u for being awesome .very to the point .great info always thank u again
Excellent work. It’s rare to get me to subscribe to someone in just a few minutes of watching. Kudos 👍
thanks Mike - always a great read on the markets....👍👍👍👍
Appreciated!
The GDP numbers will be manipulated like the 'employment' numbers are COOKED.
A very convincing analysis.
Question: Can't you just force the FED's hand to cut rates through high unemployment? Typically than comes before recessions and the markets can ignore the hot data prints throughout, sending markets higher until they break.
@Themarketchronicles Is a rotation into utilities under way right now?
i would have to check it out
What do you all think about nvidia? Should i buy it ore wait
well done i m gonna short the market till next month then 😀👌
There is no risk free rate anymore.
Short accurate and to the point
I like it
Spot on buddy, $BTC is going to tank
What is a more affordable alternative for bloomberg terminal..?
maybe like Ycharts, or Koyfin, maybe Refinitiv?
U rock!
thanks!
What does “seasonally adjusted” even mean? Just a way for them to cook the books how they want?
First!
When you are constantly bearish you will finally be right at some point.
My only stock guy !
Trolls eerily silent
I think GDP is on Thursday and PCE is on Friday (not Wednesday)
Sorry now that I listened to more of the video you got the dates right. I thought you said Wednesday initially
No one can predict the future 🔮🔮🔮
Where are all the worlds money placed? who owns what? Thats the stats I would like to see.
The past tense of "burst" is "burst." "Bursted" isn't a word.
According to the Oxford English Dictionary: The earliest known use of the adjective bursted is in the early 1500s.
Why wouldn’t stocks go up if inflation is causing higher gdp. Which most of that money goes a lot of these companies margins. It’s not good for consumers but to me it seems great for a lot of companies.
It increases the likelihood that the fed will increase interest rates. People would have less money to invest in the market
Higher inflation leads to higher input costs and narrowing margins seems like the simple all things equal answer. Higher gross revenue of lower purchasing power currency translates to higher taxable events with lower marginal utility. And of course potential for higher nominal and real rates.
Fact is equities generally outperform when real rates are around 2.5% at this point any deviation from that likely leads to precious metals continuing to outperform.
Yes but who eats these upticks. The consumer. Rarely the bigger companies
@@JimMcNutty sure but you're question was why wouldn't stocks go up. If the people have less money to invest , stocks the price goes down
Tech stocks might keep losing value because chip sanctions of China backfired and China is now a net exporter of 5 billion chips while the West has lost a huge market (China). So not only did they lost China (demand) but China is now taking over their customers, curbing their supply.
All true, but don't time the market. I wouldn't plow all my cash in now, but I'll keep reinvesting my dividends and monthly income. This doesn't apply if you're older and can't withstand fluctuations.
Would you start investing now to swing trade? Just picking your brain. I’m new to this .
@@KinnamonRolltraditional adage is 100 minus your age is optimal equity exposure
It’s crappening
Omg he looks like he’s been on a bender staring at charts with the eyes at the beginning 😂
Lots of good stuff, just slow down on your delivery (speech).
13:19 Following that reasoning, given the strength of the economy, one would expect record highs this year. Your perspective appears excessively pessimistic, perceiving the glass as half-empty, yet it's worth noting that the glass remains so due to the nearby pitcher of water.
Interest rates won't go up.
If you understand nominal rates vs real rates then you'll know that rates are headed higher regardless of nominal rates and with central bankers recognizing they've maneuvered themselves into a classic Liquidity Trap then you'll know they can not ease without a devastating counterproductive result. Aside from those inconvenient facts good luck with that notion that rates won't be headed higher.
Market is going to bounce back; dip and then RIP to 5600+ into elections
Good luck with that fantasy 😂
Can’t own tech stocks with a higher dollar, esp the high multiple stuff!!😢😢😢
Thank you