🔴 Why We are Already in a Recession (w/ Gary Shilling) | Real Vision Classics
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- Опубліковано 23 лип 2024
- Gary Shilling talks at length about why he thinks a recession has just started, making Treasuries still the asset class to own. But as he looks forward, Shilling also sees a bright future of technological advancement, productivity growth and above-trend economic growth. Filmed on June 18, 2019 in New York.
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Gary Shilling is the man! Great economist with a lifetime of experience! He should be more often on RealVision! As always, excellent content!
Yes, Lifetime of experience!
This is what you clicked this video for: 20:35
Thanks
Value added
Thanks man
Doesn't see any bubbles this time...even though the same monetary policy that created the last two bubbles was repeated again but worse. LOL.
Ya, its unreal all the bubbles and missallocations, but he sees nothing. Lol
Trouble is after lifetime of economic success he is a good friend with most of crooks who are responsible for this mess.
The same easy money policies that led to the previous crashes, but each time on exponential steroids. This is going to be the mother of all bubbles.
You have an opportunity to learn some basic economic principles and history. But instead you are making statements about things that you don't even understand.where did you study economics. If I were you I would listen more and talk less. Of course I didn't learn that until I got older.
As of August 2019 the yield curve (2y/10y) has in fact inverted.
He said the10yr would stablize at 1%.
@@chickeninasal4381 Treasury yields are getting hammered. 30 year is nearing 1,90 and 5 year is cratering at 1,40 as of today 26.8. Investors are betting on a long recession.
Gary is sharp as a tack. Been at this 55 years. I wish people half his age were as concise and HONEST!!
Real Vision Classics are the best videos from our premium subscription service released free, often a few months after the original air date. The original air date is in the top left corner as the video starts. Film date is located in the description.
That guy is a genius! That's what I keep telling people. I worked for the Department of Labor for 16 years producing those fake unemployment numbers. I also wrote the data validation which finds all the screwed up statistics which get reported to the Feds. Not even the revised numbers are right. The system is riddled with errors but they would never allow me to fix the problems no matter how many meetings we had. They are too afraid to fix anything because they think the code might break so it stays full of errors on purpose for decades, most of that junk code is even still running in ancient COBOL on mainframes. I finally just said screw it and quit. If I can't do something right then I would rather not do it at all. When I saw zero rates I figured why work anymore, just invest in bonds and gold and I'll never have to work again. I don't know what other people are doing working their whole lives. It's madness!
It's better to listen to these interviews with some delay. This way I can see who's wrong & who's right
Wasted time with this one.
@NEAR TERM EXTINCTION - HUMAN It didn't fall, it evolved into Pax Romana then Pax Americana. Those who survive the end of a society get to rewrite history to their benefit.
@@fallenangel2123 I imagine if you pay for the channel you get to see them much earlier.
@Timothy Michael - Yes indeed! The truth is seldom written and known by the majority. Great comments throughout by yourself on a great video with a great speaker in Shilling. Excellent Sunday viewing!
Economic complexity the master of distraction for the last 30 years the lemon juice is running dry on everything from realestate to bonds and everything in-between.
33:15 "it's a crazy world but YOOOO" 😂😂😂😂😂
Great interviewer and good stuff from Gary! Real Vision rocks!
mandatory joke of paying attention to a guy named "shilling"
This interview was in June. Schillings calls seem good in mid August. Good interview.
Why isn’t this discussion illustrated with any charts? There are many that are obliquely referenced.
He’s been spot on for years on interest rates and owning long term treasuries.
If you like your money printing than you can keep your same plan under the new system.
I told a real estate agent 35 years ago that long rates had peaked and she just laughed! Nobody knew anything about the federal reserve until the team save the world cover at Time magazine? Long term capital management built this city! Always thought you were a breath of fresh air papa.
I cannot think of anyone more astute than Gary Shilling at understanding the economy and in making financial forecasts.
I think the guest is spot on when he say you dont even know you are in one until much later. Perhaps a year after the peak when data comes in and is confirmed. Trying to time a recession is frought with danger for this reason since, we could be at the bottom of a recession right now. It is only clear in hindsight (having lived through about 6 recessions).
How can we be entering yet another recession when we never exited the "Great Recession." Something else is coming. What bothers me is this: Don't economists know what kind of economy we have? Something is not right here.
Jeff Lovejoy Depressions are really multiple recessions. Some are long.Some are short.
Gary has suggested $10 oil almost every time it took a hit. So he can be overly pessimistic at times.
There is so much oil production, that oil's price may be artificially supported.
Last time it was in the 20s.
It's called bread and butter *plunge protection*- and the plunge protection team has been working overtime.
Looking about on target now
Super old interview filmed June 18, 2019! Click.
We are in the beginning of the latest recession. They never tell us until it is too late to react, after the fact.
you are learning his insights and absorb the knowledge for self-use.
@@netwonc "recession is when your neighbor..." I wish people would stop repeating this oldest of clichés. It's as bad as stealing George Carlin's well-known joke about the American dream. You should at least introduce it as an old cliché; if you don't, you imply it is fresh, perhaps it even originated from you, and you appear outdated.
I think we will benefit from automation much sooner than Gary thinks, but I enjoy listening to his historical perspective.
No dude its a full scale depression its been that way since 2002.. You guys arent to quick are you
I see Orlando Jones found a new job.
Good outlook and experience to back it.
Financial Institutions also hire Astrologist and pychics to predict the markets. Read this in WSJ years ago.
right, they have crystal balls and magic wands.
I see the federal reserve being dumped by some craft into an active volcano. To bother people never again.
Everyone knows the reason we have negative rates is because we bailed out the banks but he won't admit it. He is a filthy liar.
"and we're continuing to bail out the Banks" should be noted. "Right up to the point where they die" would appear..
Even a BROKEN clock is right twice a day. Shilling didn't call the REAL stock market crash of HIS LIFE TIME which hit Black Monday 1987. I saw that one and cashed out. BOOM!! MicDrop!!!
Missed the,interviewer from rt glad to see him on this channel.
31:05 How do you make 20% on a 30 year bond if a 30 year bond goes to 2%?
If you own a 30 year currently at 2.59% and the yield of new bonds drops to 2%, that's about a 20% drop in interest rate. If you tried to sell your 30year yielding 2.59% (there are many factors that come into play, how long left on the bond, etc...) you could expect to sell at a gain relative to the drop in interest rates.
Do the math. Excel. 12C or a basic calculator. The gain is off a few hundredths but the gross gain is pretty close.
Got it, thanks!
Surely when SO was started they knew the oil industry had massively wide reaching economic effects....why wouldn't a government want to foresee those effects by having economists as close to the core business as possible?
Because it is easier to artificially control oil valuation through *plunge protection*.
I want to.like this guy......BUT "run of the mill" Recession? Nothing overwhelming?!!! US debt $22.5 TRILLION + missing $21 Trillion , and Global Debt over $350 TRILLION !!!! and he doesnt see anything major. ACTUAL NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES against inflation???? Think it's time for him to retire
15 trillion in negative rates, pension funds at almost 7 trillion underfunded, 45% of bonds need to be marked to junk, historic debt bubbles in every sector, another housing bubble-- but he sees nothing..lol
Ok Gary, I’m happy you don’t see anything that big happening as big as the past recessions 🤔 how about this national debt we are accumulating? I guess it doesn’t matter. Or maybe the pensions buying corporate bonds that corporations then turn around and buy stocks to raise the stock price 👏🏻👏🏻 yep we will be fine 👍🏻 nothing to see here folks
The corporate bond buybacks is the item of the next recession. Late this year or late next year are my guesses for the recession hitting. Raoul Pal seems to think it'll be a bit later (between 2-5 years). We shall see...
Solid interview.
Will anyone at the FED watch this?
where do you think all those thumb's downs come from?
That's a good interview.
But puts a point on what Pres Calvin Coolidge once said,
something about he never met a "one-armed" economist, for example:
"On the other hand"
Great interview
In my next life I am coming back as either a Meteorologist or as an Economist - because I don’t have to be right any more than the average baseball player’s batting average - .280 or 28% of the time
Can we have him back on when this next one hits and replay his predictions of no real issues bigger than the past ones?
The FED was never able to reduce it’s balance sheet. They are going into the next recession with 4T on their books and will be forced to monetize the debt. The dollar will crash resulting in a precipitous rise in gold and silver. We will be in a state of stagcession for the next decade with high unemployment and negative to flat GDP.
Gary is quite self assured. He’s made a lot of money with his game plan. But bottom line, he noted that the FED has never been in its current position with all that toxic waste on its balance sheet. So, how can he possibly speculate on how it all works out in the recession.???
We are in recession now. It started 7/3/2019.
Re: The GDP: In addition to what Tenebrarum states, please note that government transfer payments including Medicaid, Medicare, disability payments, and SNAP (previously called food stamps), all contribute to GDP. Nothing is “produced” by those transfer payments. They are not even funded. As a result, national debt rises every year. And that debt adds to GDP. Manufacturing's Share of GDP is
Hugely Underestimated. Thus, in addition to Baum's excellent comments on the the cyclical nature of manufacturing, manufacturing's share of GDP as attributed by economists is simply wrong.
Google how the NEW GDP number is calculated, what non-sense. Since December the S&P has risen 25%. A 10% rise in the market adds 1% to the GDP so a 25% rise adds 2-1/2% to the GDP. So the GDP was 3.2% and 2.5% of that was from the FED printing money and feeding the stock market. How stupid is this?
Bubble, the S and P hit 2874 in Jan 2018. and now it's about 2924 in Sept 2019. What an increase!
This was a great video, thanks Real Quest!
Defense stocks are indeed defensive stocks... War is always a good thing in times of recession !!!
Excellent
Gary Schilling has been negative on stocks ever since 2009. If you planned your portfolio that way for the past 10 years, you’d be making treasury bonds returns, which is still better than most hedge funds.
He's a bond guy, that's no secret.
The thing investors must contend with, is that many gurus have been calling a recession since 2012. Rarely do we have a pundit calling for a boom since it only seems to be cool and profitable to call recessions. In fact whoever called a boom for the last hundred years would have been right most years and be the overall winner. Calling recessions is a mugs game, since you never can be sure that you are in a recession until the peak is behind you. It seems everyone wants the title of "the guy who called the recession". Well, of course, a stopped watch is correct twice daily.
Why are people talking about recession in 2020 or 2021? Are you going to stop investing for 2 years? Good luck with that.
A lot of investors are doing just that by buying treasuries at low yields. Either they get nothing on their money or there's a depression dragging yields lower in which case you make money.
Half video if out of topic
If the Reserve Currency $ goes negative nominal yield, its game over for the world economy IMHO.
FED will come out with another tool from Magic of the economy book like QE and it will postpone recession for another year
@@peterlukaszyk1719 It's too late to postpone it. We're solidly on our way into it.
9 months later we are in Great Depression 😎
Right but coupled with other risk that makes the subprime bubble look like a small gift
Australian house China banks EU and UK already in the first legs of recession
Slow down in housing the rust and farm belts extreme US debt tariffs across the board employment numbers hide the fact that wages and full time employment has broken down add the PMI and CPI you have a full blown recession by late fall inverted yields are flagging as volatility indicators rising
Fed has no more leverage by cutting rates earning have weakened for several quarters
The Uk will have to exit with I deal sending the £ into a downward spiral
China’s banks and housing already started failing global bonds at lowest levels leaving to more fx leverage
Looking as consumer spending at trickle levels
I want to go buy treasury bonds
Views are great for a decade or two ago. When it comes to China or new tech, he is way behind which is understandable considering his age.
Neither of these guys has any understanding of US monetary history since the 1970s. I have a book written by Shilling in 1998 that claims a long period of falling commodity prices were about to occur. It was published months before the long-term bottom in commodities prices. Now that I've seen this video, I realize he had already been clueless for 20 yrs before that.
Ya, we have bubbles in everything, debts through the roof, housing bubbles again, pension underfunding close to 7 trillion and he sees nothing. Lol
@@Michael-qy1jz Shilling is a one-trick pony who has seen deflation over and over again for 40 years. If you followed his investing advice, you would have gone broke several times during that period.
@@drexelmildraff7580 Ya, something doesn't sound right listening to him talk.
@@Michael-qy1jz Get hold of Shillings 1998 Book "Deflation" (not one of the updated versions). Every page is a laugh riot of predictions that proved disastrously incorrect.
@@drexelmildraff7580 Figures. I was listening to him and it didn't make sense what he was saying.
Based on the comments, this is a reposted show. Thus, it is out of date.
22:40.. The Truth
Am I the only one that realizes that we've been in a recession since 2008
Yep.
no, its been recession for real people but not the 15% wall st stock owners gamblers. the casino is doing well but the econ is dying!
Bitcoin. Gold. Cryptos. Silver.
Crypto = garbage but still maybe have a little BTC but un regulated no is touching it . Just look at the chart it mirrors stocks so no one is hedging into BTC and never will . Gold is the stand out .
Yep diversification. Only way now
@@bunnynikkipeaches2442 i agree, I am only investing in crypto to sell on bull run and buy gold
You had a long and very career??
MrAkurvaeletbe long and VARIED career
YADA YADA
Doublespeak...
He thinks bonds will stablize at 1%. 😂😂😂😂😂
The environment back at that time was polluted Just like today
SPOT GOLD TODAY IS $1500 AN OUNCE !
Have a cup of coffee or a beer and listen to Gary. Fun! Thumbs up!
videos and news like this hampers investor sentiment which leads to downturns. STOP THE FEAR-MONGERING
The recession is in us.
This guy likes to toot his own horn much?
First
This is so disappointing. No talk of the bail out and the manipulation of the economy only he knows what the Fed will do. Who would of thought that we would make no interest on our savings for 10 years. You didn't ask about the 6 times increase in gas during the 70s. You didn't ask about the baby boomer effect. You didn't ask or comment how the society overheated for Y2K ensuring a slowdown in 2000. You didn't ask about increasing immigration since Americans quit having kids. I find this whole interview pie in the sky and frankly bullshit. He warned about the housing bubble but no one said the government would spend billions to save the day. Wall Street should have gone bankrupt and the gambling should have stopped and gone back to investing. These guys are parasites on the economy, face it.
He's a smart,man. But as with,all economists he has zero humanity., therefore he's best kept on a shelf until,needed.
"I,i,i,I, " total narcissist rant.
Gary Schilling is not happy unless he is talking gloom and doom about the economy. It is now three months since he said the economy is in recession. Is anyone feeling the recession? Gary also said short the S&P. Since then, the S&P is up 10%. You would have lost money following this curmudgeon.
This man is very disappointing for someone of his so called experience. He seems to think that negative interest rates are normal! This has never been the case in the history of the world and no one seems to know what the end result will be apart from likely to be very bad! Can’t take him very seriously! Sorry!
Who keeps company with wolves will learn to howl ...
This is pure propaganda.
Why do you say this is pure propaganda?
Jordan Welty as opposed to the pablum we hear from the so called experts on the financial channels? Now those experts have an agenda and are looking out only for their own interests.
Jordan Welty in what way. Propaganda for what purpose and outcome.
Your comment is pure trolling. Looks like it worked, too.
Who keeps company with wolves will learn to howl ...
Tooo much history. Not interested.
Interested in today economy.
James Dohnalek there is a chart (history) that shows every recession since the 1800's. He who does not know history is destined to repeat the same mistakes.
That tie is hideous! Spend a couple of bucks on a personal wardrobe creation specialist, sir!
FAke news.
Omg this black guy has such a bad voice for interviews