🔴 The Risk of Economic Crisis in Australia (w/Gerard Minack) | Real Vision Classics
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- Опубліковано 6 вер 2024
- Gerard Minack, founder of Minack Advisors, sits down with Matt Milsom of Qantex to discuss the macro drivers of Australia and of the global economy. Minack and Milsom dive into the macroeconomic considerations surrounding the beaten-up Australian economy, the bull case for Japan, and an explanation of how Modern Monetary Theory might operate in the real world. Gerard Minack is founder of Minack Advisors. Matt Milsom is Director at Qantex Capital Markets. Filmed on April 15, 2019 in Sydney.
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The Risk of Economic Crisis in Australia (w/Gerard Minack) | Real Vision Classics
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Give a man a gun he can rob a bank, give a man a bank he can rob the world.
Unbelievably good timing you uploaded this. I was looking for it yesterday but found it was in your paid list. Suddenly you made it free. Thanks
Thank you for doing this topic. It’s crucial as no one talks about OZ problem. It’s fake in everything here. People pretend nothing is happening!
Check out the UA-cam channel Walk The World or search UA-cam for Digital Finance Analytics - it's all Australian financial content
@skaindu They took the Guns... A.Jones
Totally agree! Meanwhile everyday I’m driving through different suburbs in Sydney I’m seeing an increase in hobos, it’s very sad.
6 Axis Pty Ltd you’re not wrong bud. Media in oz is very propagandised (if that’s a word), they don’t cover much of any of the fascist laws coming in or already made law., or the debt crisis awaiting Australians. A dystopia awaits the isle. I know people who were keen to migrate, visited, researched, changes their minds afterwards. The penal culture has returned and by penalising enough people the system of swindlers gets the control they need and we end up like America sans the right to defend ourselves against tyranny.
twounits you’re right, if we think about it, it’s a silent oppressive regime by the western world government under the falsehood named Democracy 🤔
Besides all the macro economics affecting Australia, the infrastructure is at least 40years behind 3rd world countries.
Frustrated Aussies complain daily on: Single lane arterial roads coupled with over governed road rules, bad internet, bad mobile coverage, excessive taxes and stamp duties, artificially inflated fuel and electricity prices are not helping the situation.
Horizon585 Potato Potata 🤷🏻♂️😬 same same but different.
Martin North at DFA narrates the current status better I thinks...
Martin North is the salt of the earth. Fine analyst, very trustworthy
Yes Martin and uppercut
he's always on spot, but he could improve his presentation. not as crisp as it could be.
Australians think their immune from all the problems that beset the world, I hear it all the time ,"it'll never happen here" attitude.
average aussie on the economy: "she'll be right"
Which is probs why guns will be back in fashion soon..
@@Bluudclaat fingers crossed
lol
@@ezymodes average Aussie/our entire Federal political leadership....
Recession.... recovery = but hOuSiNg iS a gReAt iNvEsTmEnT!¡!¡!
Gravy train to the moon
Australia has military alliances with the US; and economic alliances with China. When conflict arises, the Australian economy will be pruned off.
All these strategies are based on reaching an inflation target. Who says we need to use inflation targeting as a model. Maybe that strategy has had its day.
I moved back to the UK as Australia was just so expensive for everything especially housing. I may be back when the shit really hits the fan and I can buy a property a lot cheaper than they are now
fully agree expensive and just getting dearer
The Western World fully adopting Keynesian economics has been the worst nuke around the world ever , worst than any war or regime you can think of.
I wish these experts would come out with the facts. Australia is propped up by the Chinese and we are slowly becoming a Chinese satellite state.
Debt is ok if you can service it.
However the debt levels in Oz is concerning given wages are not moving. Lower interest rates encourage more debt. Importing people to keep feeding the housing market will at some point fail in other word its a ponzi scheme. State governments are spending big on tax funded infrastructure but the rest of the economy has significant challenges.
We are absolutely going to have a depression worldwide.
All by design.
Can’t wait
Population growth hides the problems it doesn’t solve it. Education that debt is bad and saving is good and you’d breed a better society
Education itself won't work. We need policies that reward saving and punish borrowing, which is the exact opposite of what we have now.
Gold and silver backed currency in the future is the solution to the problem of endless printing of toilet paper money or plastic fantastic.
MrFourkinghell go to
@MrFourkinghell You only need to go back pre- August 1971 when the world was on a gold standard.
Very funny how everybody if fighting over the toilet paper in the aisles.
How the worm has turned very quickly.
We need a post covid update on the Australian Economy
Any trade job losses in the domestic housing sector will be offset by the incredible amount of government infrastructure speanding at the moment
Not sure I agree with everything but useful. It ready does depend on whether you put money before liberty.
This is eerie watching this post-covid! Horribly accurate with predictions.
We need fiscal reform, not fiscal policy, starting by removing taxes on savings to offset drops in interest rates and then removing the employer contributions to pay roll tax for small business so they can hire more people and reinvest in their business.
That's the best explanation of how the theory and operation of MMT may actually work in reality ie. a real world situation, that I have yet heard.
Only other good explanation is Steve Keen interviewed by Martin North on DFA webcast, youtube etc.
Keen strikes as the type to be a blowhard then blame another when he is wrong.
Its not the banks fault. Blame multinational corporations for offshoring manufacturing and driving out the little man out of business. Corporations are to blame..
Just watch the rate of change of credit, i.e. the rate of change, of the rate of change of debt.
A QUESTION to you Gerard or to Matt, or any viewer of Real Vision that would like to comment.
Can either/any of you support or critique an MMT structure whereby the government allocates each resident of the nation over some age, say 16, a bank account with some amount within it, say $50,000.
Though that money is not available to be used by said resident.
As the govt., through our annual tax returns, knows whether any resident is in debt, the allocated money can be channelled directly to pay off all debts up to the amount of the allocation.
If a resident does not have debt, or has a portion left over from the initial allocation, that money would be used to buy a weighted portion of stocks from the local index depending on the comparable size of each company, its price at a pre-determined time, with the index adapted into an ETF.
After a certain amount of time everyone would be able to either cash out the value of the stocks, or keep them.
I think this structure to an MMT scheme would:
1. Reduce personal debt levels across the board boosting consumer confidence and lender coffers
2. Boost consumer spending of those that eventually cashed out of the stocks and those that were free of debt to a greater degree
3. Boost the cash reserves of all companies in the index that were included in the EFT
4. Boost the number of residents that participate in the stock market into the future
I would appreciate all critique, positive and negative.
Michael Barrett
does this mean thers going 2 b a few cheap 2nd hand utes 4 sale? m888888888888 !
thanks for making this comment hahahah
Check out UA-cam videos from FDA (Financial Data Analytics) where Martin North gives an excellent update on residential real estate market development in Australia. It seems the fall in prices has just started and there is more pain to come
Recession/Depression which will lead to Anarchy. Lock and load to protect your own!
Not a mention of the coming impacts of climate change in this video. And, as it was filmed before the advent of the outbreak, of course, no mention of the likely massive effects of COVID 19.
A great expose from Gerard Minack there, even though he left out climate change impacts, which will eventually, and sooner than expected, be large.
Blame it on the Australian Government and the Australians for letting the government making bad policies. More to come, as the economy is getting worst, Jobs will go.
This is a worldwide collapse. Keynesian economics doesn't work, it's been jammed down our throats for decades. You blaming the Australian government belies the real cause.
@Al Pal Your bakery doesn't print money like a reserve bank. You blaming me is beyond stu-pid, cause I have as much representation as yourself.
@@nimblep4531 I blame agenda 21
@@brettsome1608 They aren't helping the cause and Australia needing to be on the IMF books for a claim of Special Drawing Rights shows an epic failure on our part.
By the time unemployment rate is shows an adverse movement it will be post-event to actual recession ie this will be an effect of recession, in my op.
Martin North does a better job !
MMT ask someone that knows about it!
Yet another Martin North Fanboy polluting people's content on youtube...
Tee micheal
Michael Lacey I like your photo, Galeano?
So if I rob a bank I get thrown into the slamer. If the banks rob me they get a wrap over the knuckles or get off scott free? That socks I mean sux. Can't get those lairy socks out of my mind :(
david t that’s deep! And very true! 😁
So which of the recession indicators have continued to develop since this conversation? Probability increased/decreased. A lot of comments to the effect that this is old news, but what is playing out?
Why Australia has not yet facing financial crisis since consumer debt is so high which is exceeding breaking point?
Real Vision Classics are the best videos from our premium subscription service released free, often a few months after the original air date. The original air date is in the top left corner as the video starts. Film date is located in the description.
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Ironically the late publishing of this video proves how out of date this chap's views are now. Significant clearance rates, prices have already bottomed out and double digit growth predicted in the AFR today for Melb and Sydney. Always makes you wonder why would people express their views, are their motives for saying what they are saying.
@@johnwu3593
In my humble opinion we are simply at a short-term plateauing of house prices, before we go into a substantially more swift decline.
I think the bottom will be between 65-85% of Australia's peak house prices, to be played-out sooner or later WITHIN the next 2 years.
@@basilbrushbooshieboosh5302 Well, BasilBrush BooshieBoosch you have already been proven correct in that parts of Melbourne had fallen by 30% if you check your Your Investment Property magazine, what I am saying is that we are now on the rebound. I recently attended an event where they predicted the next property cycle will continue until 2025 and will put to shame the previous cycle.
@@johnwu3593
No, John, I think that I am so far only half correct and that there is another 30- 50% fall still to come from here on.
He is a very optimistic guy
This guy is on drugs. The whole OZ economy is based on property and mining,
I run a engineering services company and the supplies I talk to paint a picture of panic... Steel, warehousing and labour all down somewhere up to 30% to 40%... And this is just the start!
@@xelamas1able And how is your business doing?
@@cd78 well down off its peaks! Did not recover from the last mining down turn. We saw large engineering shops disappear. We went from 15 employees to 3 part time...
@@xelamas1able I am in Scotland but my brother is in Perth and I know WA is under the cosh
Damian
Spot on
ZIRP, NIRP, MMT to hold up asset prices in Australia is immoral.
Government 8% stimulus during the GFC was mainly wasted on roof insulation that they were keen to remove, school buildings that were not needed, etc. It may have kept the building trades employed but it was a wasted opportunity.
Older but still interesting and useful thanks for sharing!
Lewis Jeffreys oh yeah nah nah she’ll be right. Just get some cashie jobs you’ll be right
Yeah nah yeah yeah nah. Everything this guy said has now been wrong lol. FTC
Unionised tradies the real winners all along
Hope WA is excluded from this one in terms of the comments made about people not being able to upgrade in the housing market due to stricter lending conditions - a lot of us who invested in over-priced apartments in our 20s are unable to upgrade to a house in our 30s due to negative equity - and yes after this hard learning curve earlier this year - hubby and I are saving all that we can including cutting back on our electricity consumption (now considered a luxury due to high cost).
Can someone tell me, If he makes a comparison with Portugal in this Interview at any point and give me the time
So what's the average person to do? Half the people I know no nothing of the economy or know what exactly a recession even is?
I'm sure crime will now rise if jobs are scarce. What's a person to do?
This is so outdated. The last time I checked cash rate was 1%, not 1.5%. What does he think now? In his opinion, were the next few months (after filming this) similar to the last few months back then?
Why even bother working if your he’s suggesting hyper inflating out purchasing power away
I hope the economy will crash sooner than later , for two reasons, one to awaken the sleeping masses, and two to save the hassle for the next generations, by kicking the debt can down the road for longer will only make the crash worse.
If the economy crashes the banks will be bailed out by your grand kids and their childrens future
Poor are getting poorer. This doesnt help any one in the long run. But every one only cares for today not tomorrow.
I think the average persons wealth in the west is decreasing while the average persons wealth in the east is increasing
Well Australia keeps voting Liberal so thats what we want . So I dont see a problem here
@@mellowman1020 what people want and what people need are two very different things
but housing prices in Melbourne is steady again, clearance rate back to 82%. Whats going on
Hu Xue FYI at the peak price of property here in Melbourne my house was worth $1.3M, yesterday house next door in worse condition sold at auction for $1.25 M. Houses in inner city are back up again.
Low volumes.
If you think releasing an old video on a very dynamic situation like Australia is going to get me to buy your subscription service...you are wrong. There is better content coming out daily. Check out Digital Financial Analytics.
steve keen wuld b a gr8 guest
Risk, what risk?
It's a given!
That Gerard is scary smart!
That’s what we get when they don’t let the business cycle clear and restart.
Epic insights
Cash rate now below 1%... are we in a recession now??
yes buy wine
Insightful
Need to find how politician getting rich
Minack is wrong. Attempting to increase consumer prices by 2-3% each year is no panacea for happy times. Certainly not when household income us stagnant. He's out of touch.
Prepare for QE.....what next Helicopter Money? Govt. & RBA just kicking the can down the road.
You guys realise that recessions are a perfectly normal and healthy function of markets? They’re talking like it’s the end of the world, or somehow avoidable. Bizarre.
Booming now. Crazy.
MMT fiscal policy is hubris.
end political donations, get the gov working for the ppl. tax big bus, churches and charities, remove BS job subsidies and welfare , stop giving away our resources => then QE to the ppl via basic income. throw in job guarantee.
Uh oh...
Immigration is the only thing keeping the Australian economy together.
gbilios but "stop the boats"
mmt only with a ubi. QE to the ppl.
Ok
Buy a dollar, get one free!
hmm, the Chinese political model is bad and American democracy is the only way, overlay - also a bit of human rights abuses only occur in China. I think this opinion is both nieve and old. Time to take a new perspective and understand Chinese history and culture, then make a political judgment. Anyhow, each to their own. Isn't the only weaponized currency the US Dollar?
So? Just another ad for trendy socks
Full of facts and figures but when a prediction is needed. Turns to jelly. Has all the fancy terms and words. Told us nothing that wasn;'t out there. Can;t be wrong if you make no recession prediction.
The Person with the colourful socks is a clown... The country is insolvent and he is talking like everything is ok...
@Hitch Hiker then that is also daft.... the entire Casino will be shut down this debt driven paper fruad us over. The Pretendingg is Ending! But I do appreciate your commrnt
I'm selling my house
Now RBA want to inflate property.
Rental rates decreasing. Car dwellers increasing. Japan is your diamond? Haha , check out their debt dreamer. And WA house prices already down 20% and continuing to fall. 4 banks went broke in china last week... oh dear
So we need a Donald Trump to run the country ?
Hmmm, Minack doesn't even want to say "gold".
But the Libs are the better economic managers?? Back in black this year?? Loll
Old news.
no new, classic
Buy Bitcoin
Crazy prayingmantis
And Xrp
what? printing money is ultimate solution to the problem? LOL..
I actually think it’s the only bandaid solution they have 🤷🏻♂️
Agreed, there is no real solution to the problem.. We just have to let the cycle take over and start it all over again..
yeh bro , just ask Zimbabwe
Don this is the point missed here. Start over again? It's finished .
@@col2959 no, things will turn over again.. this isn't at the end of the road..
This guy completely negates the game theory adjustment required of bitcoin.
does that include gov restrictions on banks for onboarding and off boarding to btc? no , what a surprise
@@bfyrth who said anything about selling it? Ever heard of Bakkt?
@skaindu no but civilized society does
4 MONTH OLD REHASH WITHOUT ANY PROMINENT DISCLOSURE. YOU'RE BETTER THAN THIS REAL VISION.
There is always at least one of you on every video. READ THE DESCRIPTION!
@@MrAmbrosse Yeah I did - but I didn't expand it. Why would anyone ? Its a seriously shit thing to do - put it at the very top where people can see it. Its even more deceptive to bury it below the expansion line.
15 minutes I wont get back before I realized how out of touch this was.
The Air Date is literally in the top right.
Are they?
We post old videos on our UA-cam channel. If you'd like access to the videos as soon as they air you can sign up for our premium subscription service at realvision.com
1st
Because its 4 months old,and not advertised as so, I'm unsubscribing .....
It is in the title The Risk of Economic Crisis in Australia (w/Gerard Minack) | Real Vision Classics
We post old videos on our UA-cam channel. If you'd like access to the videos as soon as they air you can sign up for our premium subscription service at realvision.com
Jan Ski ,👋🏼👋🏼
unsubscribed due to old crap... again
James H fresh stuffs are in paid membership.
Then unsub from this channel and watch it on the paid service. I don't mind watching 1month old interviews as they're still very relevant.