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I push that video as often as possible and will not debate people about the economy until that person watches it. It has great re-watch potential. That chic too has gone to Davos to shill globalism and every single thing she said was WRONG. The extinction of the middle-class is no surprise to those that ENGINEERED IT.
This guys John Burbank Passport Capital hedge fund closed in 31 Dec 2017 due to shitty returns in the end and redemptions being incredibly high. Be careful and do your own research.
Tech cannot exist without commodities! Commodities are not only required for tech hardware and infrastructure, but also in producing and storing of energy required to operate tech, including the automation of manufacturing and the electrification of transportation
Feeling the same, being a contrarian when everyone start being a contrarian is weird. Maybe a crash is still coming but not after a huge fakeout that turns everyone bullish again...
A lot of great insights in this conversation. But I'm not sure if it's entirely correct to assume the Fed or central banks are ignorant about the dyer condition of the patient. I think they and the government and the President know VERY WELL how bad it is. However, it's kind of like a patient at in the emergency room. If all of a sudden a bunch of doctors and nurses rush into the room, and they start talking loudly and fast to each other, and you see them performing various emergency procedures, then that in itself will cause a major panic in other people who're watching. And I think THAT'S the main effect they're trying to avoid. Basically, they're trying to keep everyone calm by pretending that everything is under control.
Why do people speak like President Trump knows anything? The guy is way over his head, an empty suit with a very superficial understanding of finance. His entire economic "policy" is all countries are screwing the USA, we need to get tough. That is the extent of his knowledge. He only knows its bad if the market is falling, or Fox and Friends are complaining. And can you imagine a crisis in which the US needs to closely cooperate with other world leaders in an economic meltdown? We are all screwed if that happens...
The Fed is a private bank, they don't work for us. They work for themselves. Their job is to enslave the world with debt which we need to pay back to them with interest. They're job is to buy everything in the world so they own it all and we don't own anything. There job is not to raise our standard of living, it's not to reach full employment, it's not to help us... It is to help them.
@Agrigator Of course Obama had his issues, but don't compare Trump with Obama. One is a Harvard educated, well spoken, clearly intelligent man. And the other is a spoiled narcissist with the vocabulary of a 12 year old, who doesn't understand even basic concepts (to give one example, China paying us billions from tariffs).... I was no Obama fan, he squandered his chance to really change America. But Trump is an international embarrassment. Again, wait for a crisis that really requires international cooperation. It's going to be a disaster.
I assume you're not talking about clouds, rain or sunshine. In the sentence you wrote it would be appropriate to use the word "whether" AND NOT "weather"
All these worldwide interest rate cuts will slow down the economy. The fact that retirees need to save, doesn't change just because you lowered interest rates. But, once retirees see their savings drop, their going to spend even less and save even more aggressively.
Greenspan said this week that negative rates "are not a problem" ....the FED has no choice but to go down -2.5% negative in this coming recession. All the other Central Bank are waiting to follow....
the problem is rates going negative gives way to gold shooting up gold dollor going up or atleast holding strong .this is the real risk as fx mkt volatility hits we will see tech go down faster
@CAV M: He says around 25:30, “Owning calls, particularly with this leverage on a lower rate, is a far, far superior way to any other way to hedge yourself.” You can control more Eurodollars with options than by owning them outright, given the same degree of leverage.
@@JHillMD But if you listen towards the end of the interview, he says the "a bottoming of the dollar", 59:04. Perhaps he just misspoke, either way there are too many issues on the Euro side of the trade.
Recession proof stock??? BGS has a dividend yield of 9.87%. What? B&G Foods, Inc.is a holding company, which engages in the manufacture, sale, and distribution of shelf-stable frozen food, and household products in the U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico. Its products include frozen and canned vegetables, hot cereals, fruit spreads, canned meats and beans, bagel chips, spices, seasonings, hot sauces, and wine vinegar.
Institutional Investor had good article on washed up hedge fund managers (this guy)...for their next trick they are touting Bitcoin. Behind the scenes they say it's the mother of all bubbles, but go on cnbc and say Bitcoin could hit $40k. Thanks mister hedge fund guy.
BTC is the master of all ponzis. It is a total pump and dump scheme now. All the hope for it beomcing a real currency has evaporated and the only purposes it has now is criminal transactions and spaculation. The fraud an theft has also been through the roof. I read that up to 20% of all BTC is stolen.
Whoa, can’t see mean reversion for growth/tech. See you in the next recession pal. When HY spreads are 1000 over treasuries and the economy is printing -ve GDP do you think corporates will need: Atlassian, Slack, CRM, workday, servicenow, Adobe, autodesk, SAP, google ads, Facebook ads etc etc. super consensus, super wrong , super cyclical.
@@HammerLeaf This video is not reuploaded. A short clip of the video was released for free previously, but the full interview has never been uploaded to our youtube channel until today.
not knowing why the 30 year Treasury is being bought like crazy is an interesting mystery...and indeed in a very short period of time. I was once long the entire US Treasury yield curve and indeed interest rates did indeed plunge in an incredibly dramatic way in just 15 minutes during that time. In order to provide the correct context one must go back to those "15 minutes of un-possible" is my view...but i agree going back to july is no good as well and yes should be pointed out. everyone knows the "big short" on Wall Street is ALWAYS US Treasuries...the gold standard in debt for the entire World..
Dude everyone - literally everyone - is positioned for this. Somehow we're led to believe that this is the most aware consensus, fully positioned for a recession. Get real.
You're throwing stones in a glass house. You lack attention with regard to your spacing with your comma before 'however' and the spacing after 'however'.
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John's musings on tech are spot on for a guy who doesn't know tech. I'm a tech guy and he nailed it.
Just watched Jimmy Goldsmith interview on Charlie Rose. He was bang-on. And it all has come true.
I push that video as often as possible and will not debate people about the economy until that person watches it. It has great re-watch potential. That chic too has gone to Davos to shill globalism and every single thing she said was WRONG. The extinction of the middle-class is no surprise to those that ENGINEERED IT.
This guys John Burbank Passport Capital hedge fund closed in 31 Dec 2017 due to shitty returns in the end and redemptions being incredibly high. Be careful and do your own research.
lol
Tech cannot exist without commodities! Commodities are not only required for tech hardware and infrastructure, but also in producing and storing of energy required to operate tech, including the automation of manufacturing and the electrification of transportation
We are at the very end of 40 year credit cycle expansion.
All this recession talk makes me feel like it's not coming
I had the same thought or... this upcoming recession is so bad it will compare with the great depression
it won't come until it's already here
Feeling the same, being a contrarian when everyone start being a contrarian is weird. Maybe a crash is still coming but not after a huge fakeout that turns everyone bullish again...
Ray Dalio: 60% chance of no recession. Media: Fear in markets, 40% chance of recession in 2020
@@vvolfflovv Yeah you won't get wet until it rains. -_- Thanks Captain Obvious
Fallow the money and do what the banks are doing, buy gold, silver and lead. Start stocking up on free dried food ladies and gents.
A lot of great insights in this conversation. But I'm not sure if it's entirely correct to assume the Fed or central banks are ignorant about the dyer condition of the patient. I think they and the government and the President know VERY WELL how bad it is. However, it's kind of like a patient at in the emergency room. If all of a sudden a bunch of doctors and nurses rush into the room, and they start talking loudly and fast to each other, and you see them performing various emergency procedures, then that in itself will cause a major panic in other people who're watching. And I think THAT'S the main effect they're trying to avoid. Basically, they're trying to keep everyone calm by pretending that everything is under control.
Why do people speak like President Trump knows anything? The guy is way over his head, an empty suit with a very superficial understanding of finance. His entire economic "policy" is all countries are screwing the USA, we need to get tough. That is the extent of his knowledge. He only knows its bad if the market is falling, or Fox and Friends are complaining. And can you imagine a crisis in which the US needs to closely cooperate with other world leaders in an economic meltdown? We are all screwed if that happens...
The Fed is a private bank, they don't work for us. They work for themselves. Their job is to enslave the world with debt which we need to pay back to them with interest. They're job is to buy everything in the world so they own it all and we don't own anything. There job is not to raise our standard of living, it's not to reach full employment, it's not to help us... It is to help them.
fredarzani1 on Friday the president called 6 bank ceos, likely in efforts to keep the peace i.e. qe 4
@Agrigator Of course Obama had his issues, but don't compare Trump with Obama. One is a Harvard educated, well spoken, clearly intelligent man. And the other is a spoiled narcissist with the vocabulary of a 12 year old, who doesn't understand even basic concepts (to give one example, China paying us billions from tariffs).... I was no Obama fan, he squandered his chance to really change America. But Trump is an international embarrassment. Again, wait for a crisis that really requires international cooperation. It's going to be a disaster.
It's not weather interest rates go to zero it's weather monetary policy is loose or tight, loose get's money back into the economy.
I assume you're not talking about clouds, rain or sunshine. In the sentence you wrote it would be appropriate to use the word "whether" AND NOT "weather"
@@coenmarneweck Yes I made a mistake in grammar, sorry I hurt your overly sensitive feelings.
Really good interview.
All these worldwide interest rate cuts will slow down the economy. The fact that retirees need to save, doesn't change just because you lowered interest rates. But, once retirees see their savings drop, their going to spend even less and save even more aggressively.
So banks make interest on loaning us our own money...yet we make no interest when we loan the banks our money 🤔
Correct. And all of your money with the bank is loaned to them. They don't accept deposits, they accept loans.
The bank loans out your money to retail borrowers +$$$ or (in Europe) buys negative yield treasuries -$. So banks may lose money on your cash deposit.
This is a repeating pattern of theirs
Greenspan said this week that negative rates "are not a problem" ....the FED has no choice but to go down -2.5% negative in this coming recession. All the other Central Bank are waiting to follow....
the problem is rates going negative gives way to gold shooting up gold dollor going up or atleast holding strong .this is the real risk as fx mkt volatility hits we will see tech go down faster
Gold performs only in INFLATIONARY environment. Negative interest rates are the proof we are in DEFLATION.
Alex looks like a Discount Ray Dalio. As always, appreciate the content :)
How's passport done recently?
That eurodollar futures bet isn't looking so bad right now...
How do I bet on interest rates going to zero?
I suspect realvision only publishes interviews where the predictions play out.
Yepper...even to the point of rehashing older dated interviews as if they were present value time.
@@TC-cv1dg You could watch them sooner if you paid the subscription fee
@@alexanderhowarth6460 that's fine. And totally besides the point. No matter.
So what about Eurodollar, short or long?
CAV M: Long via calls, which will pay off when LIBOR rate falls.
@@JHillMD Why not buy Eurodollar pair outright with some reasonable leverage?
@CAV M: He says around 25:30, “Owning calls, particularly with this leverage on a lower rate, is a far, far superior way to any other way to hedge yourself.” You can control more Eurodollars with options than by owning them outright, given the same degree of leverage.
@@JHillMD The difficulty and limitation with calls is that you need to be right with both the levels, and the timing.
@@JHillMD But if you listen towards the end of the interview, he says the "a bottoming of the dollar", 59:04. Perhaps he just misspoke, either way there are too many issues on the Euro side of the trade.
Recession proof stock??? BGS has a dividend yield of 9.87%. What? B&G Foods, Inc.is a holding company, which engages in the manufacture, sale, and distribution of shelf-stable frozen food, and household products in the U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico. Its products include frozen and canned vegetables, hot cereals, fruit spreads, canned meats and beans, bagel chips, spices, seasonings, hot sauces, and wine vinegar.
Just like P. Schiff has been saying all along..
This is too long ...get to the point...tell us your forecast and how you will play it.
"mhm' mhm' ......mhm' sure' sure' mhm. xD
Can you please get someone on who is not a permabear? Talking solely bitcoin, gold and recessions is getting pure comatose.
THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT COMES TO AN END. GLOBALIZATION MADE YOU WEAK AND NOW YOU WILL PAY THE PRICE . VOTE TRUMP
@@ADFDGGE The world is not coming to an end. But I am a Trump supporter and agree globalization needs to be curbed.
Wars, and roomers of wars .
TheSaltLakers Most Americans can't spell for shit. 😂
1% home loans for everyone
Did he ever say what his trade was? I listened twice, but must've missed it....
Options on Eurodollar i believe
This interview is so dispirited
I agree
Institutional Investor had good article on washed up hedge fund managers (this guy)...for their next trick they are touting Bitcoin. Behind the scenes they say it's the mother of all bubbles, but go on cnbc and say Bitcoin could hit $40k. Thanks mister hedge fund guy.
BTC is the master of all ponzis. It is a total pump and dump scheme now. All the hope for it beomcing a real currency has evaporated and the only purposes it has now is criminal transactions and spaculation. The fraud an theft has also been through the roof. I read that up to 20% of all BTC is stolen.
Why is he giving Trump so much credit
Whoa, can’t see mean reversion for growth/tech.
See you in the next recession pal. When HY spreads are 1000 over treasuries and the economy is printing -ve GDP do you think corporates will need: Atlassian, Slack, CRM, workday, servicenow, Adobe, autodesk, SAP, google ads, Facebook ads etc etc.
super consensus, super wrong , super cyclical.
Yet another old video. This was filmed on July 2, 2019. Next they'll be showing videos about possible Y2K problems.
What's changed since July 2nd that would make this video out of date?
rezin russell they’re doing a recession week recapping all the discussions regarding it.
@@HammerLeaf This video is not reuploaded. A short clip of the video was released for free previously, but the full interview has never been uploaded to our youtube channel until today.
If you'd like access to all of ur content as soon as it airs. You can sign up at realvision.com
not knowing why the 30 year Treasury is being bought like crazy is an interesting mystery...and indeed in a very short period of time. I was once long the entire US Treasury yield curve and indeed interest rates did indeed plunge in an incredibly dramatic way in just 15 minutes during that time. In order to provide the correct context one must go back to those "15 minutes of un-possible" is my view...but i agree going back to july is no good as well and yes should be pointed out. everyone knows the "big short" on Wall Street is ALWAYS US Treasuries...the gold standard in debt for the entire World..
All coming to a head . Trump's not going to walk on water anymore.
не слишком ли близко они сидят друг к другу?
Dude everyone - literally everyone - is positioned for this. Somehow we're led to believe that this is the most aware consensus, fully positioned for a recession. Get real.
Bitcoin
Burbank`s command of the English language is poor. What he says ,however is interesting - if you can decipher his sloppy syntax.
How many languages do YOU speak?
@@OleksandrKravchuk John Burbank is the guy on the right Oleks, not the Eastern European fella on the left.. :)
You're throwing stones in a glass house. You lack attention with regard to your spacing with your comma before 'however' and the spacing after 'however'.