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Is the U.S. Destined For War with China?
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- Опубліковано 12 сер 2024
- Kyle Bass sits down with Graham Allison, professor of government at the Harvard Kennedy School, for a master class in geopolitics, economics, and history. These titans tackle the issue of China’s evolving role on the world stage through the juxtaposition of cultures, governments, and technology. Filmed on September 17, 2018 in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
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China: Friend, Rival, or Adversary? (w/ Harvard's Graham Allison & Kyle Bass) | RV Classics
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Real Vision interviews are some of the best and they always let the interviewed speak without interrupting. So we get the little bits that really are important to the whole
It's really eye opening! I just found out about the channel few weeks ago and it's blowing my mind! So refreshing to see highly intelligent people having discussions on important issues such as this.
if America wants to stay as the leading super power, it ought to do something about China. I didn't support Donlad Trump, but his hardline approach towards China is right.
Obama and all those before him were just way too soft, as if they were taking bribes from China.
American money - U meant all the money that Americans didn't have but stole from the world to spent?
@@neojon4871 US corporate greed caused this we gave this power to China. Try to buy something not made in China!
We need to defend Taiwan with all cost!!
this is a really, really, really great channel on geopolitics and finance. incredible interviews. bravo, kyle !!
Most Favored Nation trade status is a gift that should be reserved for allies. The politicians said it would make China more democratic, but they have used power to become more authoritarian and adversarial.
And China retaining "developing-nation status" in the WTO is a complete farce in 2019.
Yep
Saudi Arabia is still a monarchy, why doesn't the United States try to change him?
China's national wealth goes 90% goes to their small wealthy elite. They do not improve their people's lives so they keep a 3rd world status. Mexico also has much wealth and so does India, but their people do not - except for a wealthy few - so these nations are also classed as 3rd world countries, without restrictions to energy or pollution in the Paris Climate Accord. Then they hamstring countries like the USA, Australia and in Europe by setting unrealistic pollution limits and even payouts to India.
@@AleadaA Welcome to the USA home of the new Third World Country that is practicing economic slavery on the Middle and poor class while the rich dictate to both parties that allow thousands of illegals to cross our borders every month and live off the American tax payers...
Another excellent discussion! I feel like I'm back at college. Thank you Graham Allison and Kyle Bass.
Watch what they do, never listen what they say
Graham Allison responded to that by saying, "I agree. Watching what people do is often better, even with the U.S."
Kyle is my favorite UA-camr these days.
mine is bald and bankrupt
@@SafeSpaceCafe not you
CIA asset much ?😉
He has been doing excellent work. Very impressive individual.
His ability to up the level of doom is right up there with the best in the business.
Mr Kyle thank you for interviewing great minds and sharing it with us.
To ask if a country is our friend is a childish question. A country has interests, but does not have a friend.
These people are impostors ..
Vincentius I do not think it is childish question. Are you a friend or foe? Is a question we ask ourselves when meeting strangers because we do not want to be harm or die and on a nation state level it is a vital question to ask for personal security and survival. I do not professor Graham is a poser. He is a legitimate scholar and professor.
@@Fit2Flow - A country is not person ! Your comparison is childish and absolutely inappropriate.
Please, grow ...
Vincentius perhaps you can leave insults aside and speak about my argument. So you believe I have made a weak analogy? I do not think so. Is it your argument that a nation states has no survival instincts and motives in relation to other other nation states? If a nation state has enemies who can harm it and the people within it, then the question of friend or foe is vital question, yes?
My claim is supported by the facts in world history, mythology, political science, etc. So I think your opinion that the question is “childish” is inaccurate. Maybe you should rethink your stance?
Besides insults do you have any evidence or sources to support your claims? Any examples of nationstate craftsmanship past or present to support your claim that asking the question is a nation a friend or foe is childish?
If that is own emotional feelings, then fine. But there is overwhelming evidence and example from various sources that asking this question is fundamental for state security and survival.
@@Fit2Flow - You play with syntax and semantics, answer your own questions and create an anthropomorphism with a state composed of millions of people. It's ridiculous. You are not serious.
A state does not have a friend. A state is not an individual. You can not use the same concepts used for interpersonal relationships when talking about a state, because it makes no sense! A state is not a person, he does not feel feelings, he does not know the fellowship. It is an abstract concept invented to hide secret societies and those who dominate them, to hide those who dominate. To hide those who sow chaos and division to dominate the world.
It's childish. I refuse to continue the conversion, you do not have the level. It's insulting. :-)
China's strongest ally is called Wall Street.
Kyle you educate me in so many ways!!! Thank you for sharing! So much info!
Brainwashing
Mebahahaaaass
This is the kind of interview that you watch over and over and over...
Really appreciate these RV interviews released for all of us to enjoy for free. Fantastic insight.
I enjoy this intellectual talk very much. Even, not aggressive, open minded, friendly, non arrogant, real. Beautiful.
We want more educated and pragmatic discussions like these :) ty
USA never had intention to “help China to grow”, it’s simply because there is a lot of money to be made in China
totally agreed. There's no such thing as being friendly between nations
中國共產黨所掌握的現代武器技術幾乎全都來源於美國，美國自柯林頓州長以來至少出現了5個家族企業專門出賣美國國家利益及技術，有上市公司可能已經被中共黨員控制，台灣跟美國是被滲透最嚴重國家。日本因為民族性強得以控制!
如果沒有美國川普總統扭轉整個局面，台灣已經完蛋了，這也是日本前所，中共連和國民黨已經足以發動政變，連和國民黨已經足以發動政變，台灣的軍公教情報部們還未收復整頓處於危險期!
Kyle Bass, The Joe Rogan of finance.
Such a bad comparison. Kyle Bass is far above.
Bass, fully backed directly by CIA. Rogan, partially funded indirectly by CIA.
Stacy Blaustein why is anyone with something to say suddenly backed by the CIA ? Honestly... 🙄
@@stacyblaustein1228 - Stacy Blaustein, fully backed by the CIA. etc etc etc
China's enormous gdp growth since 2008 is hollow to a substantial extent. Lots of malinvestment amplified by exaggerated (fake) numbers. At one point the USSR also had impressive gdp growth and Krushchev threatened "We will bury you" economically. Many people in politics, economics, and big business thought the Soviets' centralized command and control system really was superior, but there was lots of inefficiency and malinvestment. Remember, any government can get impressive gdp numbers just by paying people to dig holes and fill them in again, or you can build enormous pyramids. US gdp collapsed catastrophically in 1946 because we were demobilizing from the war, but the general public did not even notice, because much of our gdp in 1945 was war spending that did nothing to improve people's lives. Furthermore, if Japan is not out-innovating the US, I doubt China is about too either. The West is in such rapid decline that China may indeed become the world's preeminent power one day, but not on the CCP's time table, and probably not with their current system. They still need secure private property rights, reliable private contract enforcement, and less centralization and arbitrary rule. But from a geopolitical view, perhaps it is better for us that the CCP is unwilling to make those reforms.
Disposable Personal Income in China averaged 10150.02 yuan from 1978 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 39251 yuan in 2018. I guess you don't believe they spend that money "digging holes and filling them in again"
@@Brandespada Constant or current yuan? In either case, 39k yuan is not that much money, a bit over USD5000 at the current artificially high exchange rate. South Korea, also very poor back then, did much better during that same time period, with a personal disposable income 5 times as high! And are Chinese digging holes and filling them in again? Well almost: try "building apartment buildings and then blowing them up before anyone moves in!" Or even painting barren land green so that it looks from the air like the country is "greening." (Talk about greenwashing!) There are numerous examples of malinvestment in China, and many more no doubt lurk beneath the surface. You know what they say, where you see one cockroach, there are many more you do not see.
@@michaels4255 China's GDP based on purchasing power parity (PPP) accounts for 18% of the whole world, the US's GDP, for 15%, and EU's for 14%. The gap between China, the U.S. and the EU will likely widen over the next few years, as the economic outlook for the latter two is cloudy with a chance of recession, while China is expected to continue growing at mid-single-digit growth rates. Have you ever been to China? I have.
Mr. Graham, you are very rational.
The Western world is reaching peak democracy. So, I expect the West to get more authoritarian as it becomes more dysfunctional.
You can't do that, because you don't have anymore the necessary power to do so. :-)
You did chaos, and you will enjoy it ...
How did you developed this opinion? Why did you believe authoritarian is at the end of peak
democracy?
Patriot Act?
@@Fit2Flow the writing is on the wall; you only need to look for it.
Anything described as" Peak"....... F a k e.
"Certainly nothing succeeds like success" - Professor Graham Allison.
That sounds fancy but if you study history it is not true. Some ex. 1. Julius Caesar at the height of powers and victories very successful by any standard was assasinated one year later. 2. Gengis Khan after all his victories and success died that lead to fracture and then eventually complete dissolution of the mongol empire, now it is a back water country no one cares about. 3. Hannibal had lots of success that enraged any enemy to wipe him and his people off the face of the earth. 4. Alexander very successful however that very success led to his downfall and death of himself and his empire...Countless other examples in history as well as in business.
@@fitnesspoint2006
Cleary, you`re missing the point of the quote by appealing to irrelevant examples.
"Nothing cycles like a bicycle" - how deep!
@@fitnesspoint2006 Professor Allison's quote is still valid. He said that success exists, not that success persists.
@@phillipbridge5009
And you thought of that all by yourself - how deep!
Kyle, man great interview. Thank you for this valuable content. Mr. Allison thank you. Great stuff.
Is there any way that the written version of your talk can be read for me? Your views are worth reading and studying on! Thanks for your reply!
Yooooo Real Vision!! Yall are putting out amazing content here recently. Thank you so much!!!
The American model is looking dysfunctional. The rise of the greedy people and corporations intent on accumulating wealth on a massive scale which inevitably involves suppressing individuals may account for this. America even allows its politicians to be bought by the rich so that they are accountable to their donors rather than the people. So many restrictions on capitalism that are aimed at safe-guarding individual rights, the environment, social justice, public health and basic common sense are gone. The Chinese authoritarian model has worked on a rising model of economic success. It has yet to be tested by failing economic conditions
yep.. greed .. .that is why we are doomed as a species...
Finally Graham Allison, a scholar with intelligence and deep understanding of China and world affairs. As per Mr Allison, China is a Friend, Foe and Adversary depending on the issue. The goal should be how we can best collaborate with them moving forward. Their economy will surpass the US no matter what as they have 4X our population. As such, finding solutions that works for everyone is key.
Trump should have hired him.
Mr.Graham Allison's understanding of China is 100 or 50 years ago
@bizkitgto i will take the risk of my account closing, sorry.
That was great,a very insightful thoughtful man. Walked around the house making grilled Salmon n doing chores while wearing headphones. 52 minutes of great journalism. thumbs up
China must think it a million times before making laws it's because your will go back to you and you'll find it hard to make solutions on it why? It's because your the one who makes it.
Graham Allison is a man with wisdom, not just another Harvard academic.
if America wants to stay as the leading super power, it ought to do something about China.
The Chinese and Russian Government have to ask themselves why they have to block financial outflows and why Russians and Chinese send their children to Western schools.
because we don't want what happened in Japan happen in China!
@@daniellamaybe5895 what happend?
This scholar is a bit facetious in his idealization of Han Chinese identity. The traditional Han Imperial identity ended with the Song Dynasty in 1279 AD after decades of war with the Mongol Khans. The Mongol victors adopted the external form of the Han Confucian bureaucracy and the Imperial court. China essentially became a very different Mongol kingdom with an external Han form.
A series of such hybrid Imperial kingdoms, ostensibly Chinese, unfolded over the centuries until the final 'dynasty', the Qing, ended in 1912. The Chinese have pretended a succession of 3 very different 'Chinese' identities unfolded: the first from the 14th Century BC until the Era of Contending States' began in 475 BC (which lasted till 225 BC); the second series of dynasties from 225 BC to 1279 AD; the third (Mongol) from 1279 to 1912.
China is now entering a 4th iteration which they will likely insist is China4.0. It's as if the West pretended Athens / Rome through the Holy Roman Empire through the European states are all one Western Imperial identity. It's all illusion.
Professor Allison didn't equate Chinese identity with "Han". He was talking about present day's assertive identity as opposed to a century of humiliation by the West.
There trying it now
I can't get enough of this stuff. Another stellar interview.
The professor has very balanced point of views, looking both sides at the same time. The host, on the other hand, has super strong anti-China feeling in his mind.
How can you post n UA-cam I thought it was blocked Comrade? Unless of course you are part of the PLA internet 50 cents crew.
@@ruizhou9612 or I am in California
@@ruiliu5737 Peoples Republic of Kalifornia to be more exact.
@@ruizhou9612 pathetic and desperate attempt to discredit someone. you are literally echoing your master's voice
Dear Raoul.
Your videos are exceptional and important.
However, this one is exigent.
Graham Allison is an incredibly important strategist, and Kyle brings this subject to life.
I was the 7611 viewer, the same day as release. I suspect we may have Mr T watch this video subsequently.
If not yet, then any close colleague would be well advised to point Mr T as this.
It is a very important discussion on where we are, and what might play out.
Perhaps more important than the looming global recession (which is likely to exacerbate this China situ).
It seems Mr T may have more insight than we first thought.
Americans value liberty and individualism (extreme=selfishness and conceit); Chinese value family, community and harmony (extreme=give up some freedoms). Of course, we all need a little bit of both. That’s what wisdom calls for.
Yep and let me point out that many young Americans do not possess an understanding of what freedom is because they've never known real oppression, yet they're convinced that they're being swindled by the 1%. And maybe they are. Younger and other marginalized populations including immigrants tend to vote for liberal causes which tend to limit freedom. And America is being overrun by immigrant populations
@@WisdomIsPrecious smart immigrants like Asians do extremely well in America, dumb immigrants like Mexicans, Guatemalan, Panamanian, Honduran do extremely poorly. I have never met a Guatemalan doctor but plenty of indian, pakistani, iranian and egytian doctors/neurologists/surgeons.
fitnesspoint2006 go to this channel >>> Dr Edward Dutton, the Jolly Heretic
Chinese culture is a collectivistic culture. American culture is a individualistic culture. It is easier for ppl in collectivistic culture to understand individualism and individualistic culture. It is very hard for ppl in individualistic cultures to understand the concept of any collectivistic culture.
China has a long history of over 5000 years. China’s civilization has a rich content and Chinese respect knowledge from ancestors. That’s why Chinese do understand that all civilizations go up and down as a natural process. That’s why Chinese show respects to things Chinese can’t understand and agree that there are different values.
Many of these concepts are hard to accept by NA cultures or EU cultures. And that makes the difference.
@@dongxuzhou4661 I agree that American people are more individualistic compared to the Chinese people. It was one of the main reasons for our founding as a nation after all. However, China being a collectivist culture that can not be understood by individualists is, IMO, wrong. The argument between collectivism and individualism has been mostly settled throughout the world. Democracy, individual human rights, and the freedoms given to people in an individualistic society are superior to the dictatorial, collectivist society. Again, this is just my opinion, and I respectfully disagree.
Every culture has their own way of doing things, including running their own country. That's their own freedom. To judge others by your own standard or making a copy of you out of others, the world then will become a definite problem,.
@@vitocorleone8323 Had the "world police" been Chinese then according to Chinese culture the Chinese army would never invade any countries where we could not imagine millions were killed without mercy and even just a few days ago 40 tons of bombs were dropped in Middle East.
@Y T not naive enough to be so. Those two wars are apparently written in the Chinese history book if you don't bother to take a look. Even Mao's son died and was buried in Korea during the war. However, the narratives on the China's side describe both wars as a fight aghast Western imperialism. Look at 500 years of Western colonialism if you don't understand why they think so. Of course, it depends on which side you stand by and whose narrative you buy. I tend to see it from multiple standpoints, including US, China, Korea, and Vietnam, and etc.
Most of the Chinese Debit is internal while most of American Debit is external. It is much easier to manage an internal debt than it is to manage external debt.
Like watching this channel although the sound quality has been terrible with this interview.
Another really really fantastic interview....keep these outstanding interviews coming. Thanks
America is playing chess all the while china is playing “go”. Chess: take out what u can as fast as possible. “Go”:advance over as much “space” as possible with the least possible resources.
True, The Art of War v. The Art of the Deal...a purely transactional, sans strategetic behavior.
Who’s watching this post-Corona virus?
I'm watching it during Corona virus
the historian keeps saying 'THEY THINK' THEY THINK ... well the "they" is just a small group of leaders in china ... so let's not speak in apples and oranges
So you want him to say "a small group of thinkers in China" everytime? Regardless if they are 5 or 5 million 'they' make the decisions. Btw it is a handful in the US that decide, not voters
Thucydides presented the official Athenian explanation for the war--Sparta fearing a rising rival--but the truth is the war only started when Athens turned militarily expansionist. Nevertheless, Athens sought to blame the war on the Spartans, but some historians think that Pericles strategically engineered the conflict in an effort to make Athens the unchallenged hegemonic power in Hellas. Sparta herself tended to mind her own affairs. Merchant republics such as Athens, Venice, or our own country, the United States, have tended to be expansionist. Perhaps being a naval power also has something to do with expansionist tendencies. In the long run, Sparta won the war, but Athens got to tell the story, so Athens' version of events is the one that tends to get recounted today, often rather uncritically. In the nineteenth century, Americans (north and south) tended to identify with Sparta. Nowadays, we tend to identify with Athens. I am sure that says something important about the ways in which our own society has changed.
I would add that if you are looking to history as a guide to your foreign policy, then it is important to get the history right.
Your explanation only restates what Thucydides theorized. One side was rising relative to the other side, gaining power and influence. The other side desired to retain its position as the dominant power, hence the conflict. Remember that war takes two sides, if one side simply concedes or surrenders, there's no conflict.
Also, from your tone you seem to suggest that expansionism is not to be looked upon positively. Except that's why we get to be expansionist, but cry foul the moment someone else turns expansionist. Although keep in mind this no different than any other country in the world that has the power to be expansionist.
And btw, we might identify a little more with Athens because we think of their ancient "voting system" as more like a "democracy" and Sparta's military oligarchy as more like a "dictatorship". I would think that those of us in the U.S. have always identified with Athens more, I'm not sure whether there was any point in history that we would identify more with Sparta, and I think this is why it is Athens' version of history we recount, because their "rise" or expansionism was justified in our eyes, due to their "democracy".
But you forgot about us military industrial complex.
Very interesting reminder, thanks, perhaps mercantile value is antithetical to aristocratic virtue?
Nothing of what you said invalidates a iota of Professor Allison's "trap" theory, on the contrary, it reinforces it.
Y T I won’t disagree with you that America’s’ beginnings were always about freedom, but folks forget it was religious freedom that they established themselves here in America. They were running hard and fast from a Papist government. That being said our government, at some point in time, changed its ideals from a Nationalist to a Globalist entity that knew what it was doing all along by giving away our manufacturing base so they could maximize profits and never looked back at the populace bc we do not vote in CEOs or any other private Corporation including Pharmaceuticals. The richer they got the power they obtained so that they would never hv to share the pie with anyone including their own country men. The only citizens that wanted a Republic/Democracy are the ones with the least power except for the right to vote. We as citizens hv agreed that state and the private sector are never to be combined( fascism) and we also agreed that church and state would never be combined ( we are not Papists) so as a result, we don’t hv really really strong laws from elected officials, voted in by the populace, that would protect its citizens from the rampages and destruction that private industry can do to a country. Nixon opened up China and didn’t set up any ground rules that would protect our manufacturing base. And worse, even if I’m wrong and there were laws that industry needed to abide with , to keep us protected, they obviously broke those laws and no one punished them. I would suggest to everyone on this thread to buy, or rent a home in a rural area wherever you live. Learn to grow your own food and learn how to create energy to warm yourself and use for cooking. This is a very huge task for all of us bc we hv been under the impression that the lives we are living now can/would never go back to what we were when we were farmers on this land.
“Money is not the Equivalent of “FREEDOM” !
Yeah.. but show me one who doesn't yearn for financial freedom.. .
@@pycpenntry being free from the need to buy. You have thought it was freedom to purchase
Fantastic Interview, talk about opening my eyes and thinking on a different level. Thanks gentlemen.
I am bothered by graham Alison’s naive political view toward the CCP. Actually many other elite professors in ivy tower think like this. What we need to do is to send them to China to live for 10 years under the CCP rule, I will see if they can do their analyses totally ignoring the fundamental difference between a socialist/communists country to the free world. Graham seems to stand on a higher ground to look at the crash of civilizations, but he failed to recognize that the conflict between the CCP and the free world is the conflict of civilization and anti-civilization, there is no win-win, there is only “win-lose”. Chairman Mao has spelt this out long ago, and Graham Alison should read Chairman Mao’s little red book before he wrote his own.
YES. Graham in China would be killed or imprisoned. This guy is a joke.
"Our supremacy in education "
Really Kyle? The few top institutions yes, but the USA is hardly supreme in education the bulk of its population.
Thank you Rockefeller Foundation. Consult the John Birch Society on literacy. Bucky Fuller pointed out that if your elementary education is not excellent, college is a waste of time and money.
"By early 2019, Hayman had $423.6 million in discretionary assets under management, down from $2.3 billion at the end of 2014"
Bass was one of the first people on the planet to warn about what was coming in 2008. If you get the chance to watch the outstanding 'CNBC Originals: House of Cards', TV documentary, by David Faber, watch that sucker. Bass is featured in it, telling the Wall Street investment bankers what was coming. They didn't heed his warning. He bought insurance on the debt which was going to default and made billions when the insurance paid off after the debt went bad. His money making journey started at a casual conversation at a wedding in Europe. Every high school student in the US should be required to watch, 'CNBC Originals: House of Cards'. It is brilliant.
Still got these colonial ideas.
Tony Ng should America be punished?
Very interesting discussion so far, we may need to invite the Chinese counterpart to sit down and see their viewpoint of what
Professor Graham Allion and Mr Kyle Bass stated in the show.
Dr. Allison is smart and a great humanist. Listening to him is to learn a great lesson what means to be intercultural communication. He swiftly shift perspectives, letting people stand in the other's shoes in order to understanding each other's perspectives. Very fair and intelligent!
Thank you Graham Allison - to be the light of wisdom!
Kyle is lucky to be mentored right there in the interview to grow up to have a more balanced view... and still not losing sight of going for a solution (even if the solution is slightly biased towards yourself).... in such a gentleman;s way
both are trying to assert or probably moving into the same direction... one is led by numbers/power/objectivity... the other by wisdom!
This is GOLD...thanks for sharing!
Kyle still shorting the RMB...
By early 2019, Hayman, his hedge fund had $423.6 million in discretionary assets under management, down from $2.3 billion at the end of 2014.
Big loss coming from 2017 has he shorted the RMB expecting china bank to collapse, he had to rebuy his position.
He got his fame by betting on subprime crisis in 2008.
Taking into all video from him depicting china as a huge mess (have you seen US debt and liabilities...), for sure he bet again on weaker RMB but this time he will be partially right as china let RMB down to offset tariffs.
Great to hear Mr Allison, but the current media activity of Mr Bass is full of bias
China has benefitted from the dual economic models of China's central control and Hong Kong's market economy. Authoritarian control enables its companies and banks to report inaccurate accounts for decades which cover up the wasted resources such as empty cities and roads leading no where. If these crumbling buildings were properly valued then the growth figures previously reported would have to be significantly downgraded. In a market economy supply versus demand sets the price of each product so the value of accommodation for over a million people in ghost cities would be very low considering the lack of demand has left them empty for many years resulting in many of them needing to be repaired due to poor quality control duriing construction and the lack of maintenance since. These over valued assets has produced many rich Chinese who have bought much of Honk Kong's property rising the prices to astronomical amounts. This expansion of the money supply that has fueled the boom was due to Honk Kong's access to western capital markets. However the recent proposed changes of the law in Hong Kong whereby their citizens may soon be subjected to Chinese courts and imprisonment in the mainland could cause the end of this preferential dual system. Also the practice of the Hong Kong currency being pegged to the US Dollar is not sustainable with the present interest rate difference resulting in the rundown of their foreign exchange reserves to near zero. If this inflow of capital via Hong Kong dries up then China's economy will likely grind to a halt.
@@patriotsvnwo5217 Thank for this feedback, lot of wisdom there.
HK has announced giving up this new law. Let see if protester will keep on the street.
Hk issue is greed of HK citizen, focused on real estate and stock market, true, inflated by mainland capital.
When seee that 70+% of HK wealth is controled by 10+ billionaines from HK, protester should target the right people
@@pfelelepmaltese2969 Thank you for your kind words especially from an expert such as yourself. I only have a superficial interest in the area. China is a major threat to human rights and seems to be the globalists laboratory to perfect population control before they spread their methods across the globe starting with the EU.
The globalists used the Global Warming Hoax to transfer trillions of Carbon Tax Credits from the west and subsidise China and India the worst polluters while taking a slice for Maurice Small and Gore along the way. The UK for instance is paying more Carbon Tax on coal than it cost to buy thereby causing the industry to be uncompetitive with China and India who are not only exempt from the tax but also gain from subsidies on green methods of production. I can only guess that the scale of the corruption (trillions of USD) would be the driving force that maintains the idea that higher CO2 levels is bad for the planet and so must be taxed. The truth is we need more CO2 to bring it back to the long term average because the plants were suffocating but are now experiencing 30% faster growth rates with the same levels of nutrients and water supply.
China has been blessed in many ways because it suited the elite to promote it in order to profit by the transition. However, most of China's advantages will be stopped if Trump has his way. I hope he succeeds and China's sphere of influence eventually retracts back to its mainland.
@steve crawford Not sure what you are talking about ? You ask me about CCP and VPN ?
I am not chinese and not CCP but an active investor who lived in china as well US.
I do not pretend i am an expert, just highlight the bias of Kyle Bass.
CCP brainwashing mainland chinese citizen ? Most of young chinese have VPN. Priority chinese is stability, consumtion power and safety for children... not your concept of freedom or democraty which is relative.
Look at Trump's Reagan rethoric, fox news and this kind of bias youtube channel or how facebook algo can influence opinion.
Brainwashing is in all sides.
Machiavelli and what he wrote 500 years ago on managing politic and people are still up to date...
Citizen Smith I’m totally agree with your statements about gosht city and risk of overwhelmed China housing price, (personal view, that’s why Chinese likes to buying house over sea. To the Chinese govt it is like money flow into over sea,) don’t you view Chinese govt in the next couple years are going to raise the rate of central bank? To release the pressure of housing price and but rmb r going to be strongest, which it will hurts the exports rates, but the thing is China changed the policy into domestic development, well, also lay emphasis on made in China 2025. (Which China trying to compete in every area. ). What about India? Don’t you thinks USA or EU willing to invest money into India trying to stop some level of Chinese grow?
Great interview, may level heads prevail!
He blames China for thinking they are the centre of the universe, but doesn't the USA also think that?
The difference: you can say what you want in America (with a few exceptions), and you will not be dragged off to prison in the middle of the night. Get real.
@@GUITARTIME2024 You are talking about sometihng completely different, im talking about the usa blaming China for thinking they are the centre of the world, while the USA does the exact same, what are you talking about?dont make go oftopic when you reply to someones comment.
@@budgetking2591 we don't "think we are the center of the universe". I know America very well after half a century. Move to Beijing, comrade.
@@GUITARTIME2024 Then why is America always making war with countries? because they like them ?
@@GUITARTIME2024 Yes, you will. Ask Julian Assange.
It’s an interesting program and eyes opening. Thank you.
Well Kyle, I guess you will be voting for Trump in 2020???
This was filmed in September 2018, although published recently. Everything I have seen by Bass this summer contradicts his views on the possibility of a successful US-China deal. There is a CNBC video clip in July 2019 wherein he states he does not think a deal can be reached that is both measurable and enforceable and both are prerequisites.
@Donald Kasper Interesting POV, what are your suggested reads?
@Donald Kasper Kyle said any deal had to be both measurable and enforceable. I would add, most importantly, meaningful. I think as the 2020 election approaches, the President may opt for a "somewhat" measurable and enforceable deal that is virtually meaningless, at the end of the day. A deal that apparently succeeds with the trade imbalance but provides limited and temporary solutions to the IP issues is effectively meaningless but, perhaps politically expedient.
Me Too!
There's the Indian Ocean. Should no one other than India be able to use that entire ocean?
the Entire Atlantic Ocean belong to City of Atlanta, didnt you know?
Well, it’s the country nearby gets to decide, why America so far away, meddling in this, China never invade other countries, not even when China was number 1 in the world.
@@hakunamatata887 China never invaded other countries? are you kidding me? how do you think China got such large territory?
@@hakunamatata887 Hypernationalist talk like "number 1 in the world" is what has led to conflicts all throughout history. We are all a part of the global community. If you're talking about Olympic medal count or the Economy it's one thing, but that kind of fervor can easily become toxic. We can't afford to repeat the past because we all have nuclear weapons now. Inside China, China decides whatever it wants. In international waters, it's the global community. People respect China and they want fairness. With power comes responsibility and accountability. There are many countries within close proximity of the sea that also have claims. Why is China threatened? There's not one country on earth, U.S. included that wants a military conflict with China. It's about freedom of movement.
Stanley Philipose I don’t like counting numbers either, I said that’s between countries nearby, but America is far away.
Wars with countries with large scale nuclear power plants are incredibly risky , any large scale bombing raids that disable the electrical supply to these plants could result in cooling system failures , core meltdowns and ionizing radiation being liberated from the spent fuel rod assemblies as they ignite after the storage pools containing them boil dry.
How would we ever have such unfettered access to brilliant people like these two gentlemen, without a platform like UA-cam?? We live in interesting, and exciting times!
Two bad the CCP doesn't let Chinese use UA-cam.
Free flow of information is our greatest freedom in the US. Americans should never take it for granted.
Fair and thoughtful interview.
I do think we have space platforms! :)
One world government and one world currency for the people by the people, but run by a computer. Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Capitalism has evolved into a competitive means of destroying anything that stands in the way of profits. The world is now highly developed, it’s time to stop competing and instead start fixing. The world should stand together to help poor countries and create a sustainable future without hegemony. There is one force behind most of the problems in the world and it’s called greed.
30:08 I can see it happening if they could both agree on a medium of exchange that neither of them or the others controlled. And it will certainly level the playing field.
Hmmmm if only there were a store of wealth that was defi where transactions were public
I don't have any problem with a big, strong, prosperous China. I do, however, have issue with a big, strong "Party."
News flash, unified China is a "Party" always will be. Only homogeneous and unified people can dominate, exact reason why the West (White people) are loosing ground every day. "Diversity is our curse" is the reality based slogan.
Funny
Hello All. Mr. Graham Allison of Harvard is presenting real facts and real truths on all the topics. Please listen to this wise statesman.
Mr. Kyle Bass and all of us, must keep on learning from him. Don't be brainwash and programmed by opportunists that expressed frustrations, discrimination and hatred.
About the Marshall plan. A primary reason that Europe was so poor was the US policy of de-industrializing Germany. Millions starved to death because of this. The Marshall plan was begun in July 1947 in the form of occupation order JCS 1779. However, up until then, JCS 1067 had been in force, which was a catastrophe. The big difference was not the aid USA sent. The big difference was that USA were no longer stopping Germany from exporting from its heavy industry.
Though obvious, it seems a rising power always threatens an existent one. Who else would? A seated king is threatened by a rising favorite - so it goes. The ambitious newcomer threatens the established one. it's a cycle as natural as eroding beach sands.
Entire Mao generation including Emperor Xi will die in the next 20 years due to old age... Internal turmoil is real, bro...
1980 to 1990 all Stalin era apparatchiks died out.. new ones were greedy and incompetent
@@646oleg yes, but the Soviet Union crumbled.
@@GUITARTIME2024 that was my point. 1991 Soviet Union crumbled
Maybe Xi will die sooner of his own making--COVID-19 virus (posted Mar. 31, 2020).
Awesome discussion. I beleieve America /Americans are finally waking up with respects to China. It is going to be an interesting 10 to 15 years going forward
We allowed and paid for China’s growth for years. Enhanced their ambitions increased their power, logistics, and wealth only to pull out the rug at the last moment. Very well thought out Rope a Dope by the Americans.
May you live through interesting history.
Americans didn't want it, politicians and corporations did
"Nothing succeeds like success"...mmm ahhh That sounds fancy but if you study history it is not true. Some ex. 1. Julius Caesar at the height of powers and victories very successful by any standard was assasinated one year later. 2. Gengis Khan after all his victories and success died that lead to fracture and then eventually complete dissolution of the mongol empire, now it is a back water country no one cares about. 3. Hannibal had lots of success that enraged any enemy to wipe him and his people off the face of the earth. 4. Alexander very successful however that very success led to his downfall and death of himself and his empire...Countless other examples in history as well as in business.
The amount of the genuine respect and kind words in the introduction was wiped out at 18:55. That short but distinct "hm..".
He's talking like the fundamental conflict between China & the US is about difference in Value. While what's really happening has nothing to do "individual liberty vs. order". It's all about POWER. Besides, please stop saying that the fundamental value of the west is "individual liberty" - for that's just merely a by-product of unchallenged POWER in the past ~ well 500 years. Let's not be naive people.
And the base Value of China is not Order, it's "development". American's have been enjoying their living standard for 50+ years, remember every country has a RIGHT to DEVELOP themselves. You Americans are not special. Because most country are still in development, order must be maintained. I hope that's not hard to understand.
This historian talks a lot but he understands NOTHING.
have you ever red Clash of Civilizations by Huntington? He wise and the problem not about his teaching style but viewers who can not get it
See some comments about HK, Taiwan and China so many misconception and misunderstanding. Brief history - Taiwan was formed when the Nationalist Chinese lost the civil war with the Chinese communist and were kicked out of China. The KMT(Nationalist Chinese) ruled Taiwan as a dictatorship before they became a democratic system similar to the US model. HK was a British colony for over 150 years after the British took it by force and HK was never a democracy as it was a British colony, similar to India which was a British Colony too. HK political system is base on legislative seats given to business community, elected by the people and the Chief Executive is elected by a body of representatives rather than an open election by all HK people. China political system has also evolved to a communist party meritocracy system which choose their leaders base on meritocracy and performance and rise through the rank and file have some similarities to the old Chinese scholar system of the old Chinese dynasties which was even adopted when China was conquered by first the Mongols and later the Manchus nomadic invaders north of China.
Thank you for this information. I studied Chinese painting with Diana Kan who was a granddaughter to the last Emperor of China. She grew up in England after leaving China under attack and she knew the Royal Family when she was still a child and also Winston Churchill. I love Chinese culture and I wish the people well.
Albert Wong to call China communist party meritocracy is accurate but not complete. The communist system may be meritocratic but it is fundamentally a party dictatorship based on the rule of certain people at the politburo level and above. Not based on rule of law, like HK or Taiwan.
@@fe12rrps - Flawed statement and argument to make. Every country in the world has its own set of rule of law to function effectively base on the country's social and cultural needs and requirements. Who are we to judge other countries by our standards of rule of law? So essentially your point is China doesnt have a "democracy" which makes it bad! Well than let me ask u which country in the world has lifted 3/4 of their population out of poverty within 30 years! Which country in the world have 1/4 of their population with the largest middle class? Which country in the world send 140million tourist worldwide? Which country in the world send millions of students to overseas universities? Dont look at things selectively, look at it objectively and totally to make a judgement. As the saying goes dont judge a book by its cover, go read and findout what is inside the book, than make your judgement.
Albert Wong 人制 和法制没有什么不同吗？
I wld suggest to look at the facts instead of letting your ideology cloudy your ability to judge
The difference is how much loss can a leader take? Same during the Korean war at the end. overwhelming numbers were available.
China would sacrifice 500,000 soldiers to defend the homeland .
Invading force , if the U.S. lost
50,000 soldiers killed in action ,
their public at home would protest
to stop the war. Korean War and Vietnam War are two excursions
the U.S. had in Asia with poor results.
Kyle Bass: Look at what they do, don't listen to what they say (He was referring to China.)
Graham Allison: I agree. Watching what people do is often better, even with the U.S.
I liked the conlusion by Kyle. "Look at what they (china) do and ignore what they say" .
In China, we say "do what American do , don't do American say"
Say: Helping Iraqi people getting freedom, liberty etc. Do: Helping military complex and oil companies
I think you should look at the ideology of corporations.. banks..and elites then we can have a real conversation..
The conversation is already "real", and all you said has been factored in already.
Ideology? They don't have any? Unless greed is an ideology?
I am a Chinese and I can tell him in no uncertain terms that he is dead wrong in his understanding of “China thinks of itself as the center of universe”. the Chinese started using the phrase “center of the universe” 3000 years ago when there were no serious civilization in Europe, American, or Africa known to them until 1700’s. This term is used for historical reasons not for subjugation of other country or culture.
Much like today there are plenty of western scholars who like to claim that Alexander the Great conquered the “entire known world”. Though we know now that Alexander didn’t “conquered the know world”, still many people keep using the phrase because they like the sound bite.
Exactly what I thought when he referred to 中国 (Zhōngguó) = "middle kingdom", nothing to do with "the center of the universe"
Brandespada yes, this video has 100,000 views, only 2.2k comments and even less to reach our comments, few will know about their misinformation campaign.
@33:12 for the topical question
24:00
Yes - but as people's wealth increases, do their values change? From order to freedom? I think so.
If only America can stop battling countries, she can win the world because she is great and she has made many countries great.
I feel like there is a level of facade over nearly very topic discussed here that founds points on historical spin as if it was infallible reality. The most insightful part to me was 20:00 to 21:15
You think the part you mentioned is the most "insightful" based on a US dollar dominance underpinned by expectations that the trade war will cause a shift in consumption and investment patterns away from globalisation, turning a blind eye to the fact that Mr Bass is a hedge fund manager who bets against the Chinese currency.
Great interview. Very insightful & thought provoking.
Another great interview! There's an audio issue that drops the volume here and there through out the talk.
The West shows up with all it's technology and demonstrates China was never that great.
Actually, 150 years ago the Chinese were doing the majority of the heavy lifting and the very dangerous demolition necessary to complete the Trans-continental Railroad for a little upstart nation of dirt-farmers, called the United States of America. (Albeit, we barely qualified as 'united' at the time.)
That was the public infrastructure project which put the US on the path to 'super statehood', and Chinese immigrants proved decisive in enabling it to be completed in the time-frame stipulated by Congress.
Apropos...
Leland Stanford, president of Central Pacific, former California governor and founder of Stanford University, told Congress in 1865, that the majority of the railroad labor force were Chinese.
"Without them,” he said, “it would be impossible to complete the western portion of this great national enterprise, within the time required by the Acts of Congress.” More Chinese immigrants began arriving in California, and two years later, about 90 percent of the workers were Chinese."
@@tbthomas5117 Chinese are great people. High IQ and hard working. Another immigrant group that helped Make America Great. The problem is the Chinese people in China have never created a democracy. They have always allowed a top down power system. Maybe they have difference values in China. Was it this video that said China's main value was order? The US was built on personal responsibility although that has eroded over the past few decades. Hong Kong seems to believe in US values. Might that spread to China and over throw the CCP? We can only hope.
@steve crawford in your little wet dream
I am sorry to say (opine) that my generation, (BBs) have demonstrated the folly of counting on 'Judeo/Christian' principles to insure the honorable execution of our democratic franchise, and we are materially responsible for squandering the legacy of WWII. While the Chicoms are certainly the most tyrannical, our 'government' (writ large) is the most corrupt (recently proven beyond even my own cynical assumptions).
I hold the Chinese culture in very high regard, except for what appears to be a blind-spot when it comes to questioning the necessity for 'benign totalitarian government'. On the other hand, given the debacle of our two failed presidencies in succession, followed by an attempted Coups D'Etat by the losing opposition in 2016, its difficult to argue that our way is better.
I believe both nation's rank and file citizens are challenged to set aside our natural instinct to 'quietly play it safe', and find ways to impose 'rational and pragmatic', democratic and republican institutions of government on our respective corrupt 'oligopolies'. And given that in both countries, the respective 'Ministries of Truth' are either sycophants or subsidiaries of the governing class, our only chance of organizing change will require the intelligent exploitation of the global network.
Bottom-line, our chances of turning the tide of what we're facing now are pretty bleak (IMHO).
Kyle is role model for interviewing world smartest thinker. Trying to extract underlined theory of all past policy and validate it before
Forming new theory that will change the current path. The winner is the capable of creating low entropy for growth( high entropy).
Kyle, loving your channel!
Not steal. Buy. They have the money to buy. And learn through education. And now innovate with a STEM team growing at a rate 10 times faster than the US and increasingly faster. Ignore this last effort at your own peril.
I agree with everything that Trump has done economically especially dealing with and standing up to China. The CCP has shown that it would be a bully as the dominant power in the world.
tam tran the whole world is abandoning evil war monger democracy regime of USA due to bullying and fake news and blatant liar.
Buy Nexus Gold Corp., Firefox Gold and other junior developers. The upside potential is 72-169x just looking at what happened in 2011 from todays prices....
No-one is forcing American companies to enter the Chinese markets, and then enter into joint-venture companies where transfer of technology takes place into the JV company. They could focus on other markets. Why is the success of their centrally planned economy such a big surprise? The Asian tiger economies, nominally democratic but largely one party states, have laid the blueprint for centrally planned economies.
Kyle reminds me of Jack Nicholson.
Honnnneeeyy.. I'm hoooome ;)
Childish analysis. What do you expect from these Ivory Tower analysts who have no skin in the game? Other people's skin maybe, but definitely not their own!
I'm afraid you couldn't grasp a single idea.
@jay bay How come "very low resolution reasoning"? They spent all the time discussing the 3 points you mentioned and much more!
Unbelievable that these interviews are not on every major network channel.
Both Taiwanese and Chinese know the USA will never come and defend Taiwan
Adversary no two ways about it .
🤣US raised a dragon only to find it couldn't be contained without a fight.
it raises a few before, none of them got snappy (just ignore that one with a big red dot on it's back, that was just a silly spat).
that’s about it. They lose the key and left the cage open, and now they have to find the key, trap the dragon and close the door, all at the same time. Not going to be easy.
The Chinese have been around since 1250bc.. Who's allowed who to expand?
@@blackswan8651 China never dominated the world, they were even dominated by the Mongols. They've never been any where near a global player.
Max Smith Neither was Japan until they decided to be. Got nuked for their trouble. Never ends well.
wrong premise set there as suggesting we Chinese are as aggressive as you or at least your governments , and they said they learn history , what a joke
4 years later, and one pandemic, and now China is in BIG TROUBLE. One never knows what will happen
Chinas debt is approximately 54 percent of Gdp. USA has approximately 108%
You are forgetting corporate debt and local debt.