After years of tolding, traxe will eventually be the first person to come out and say "I tolded you!" If you hold on long enough everyone eventually right, but traxe did Tolded us
It has very little to do with me but more so about the bond market.. I'm just simply explaining to people what a inverted yield curve signifies, why it inverts and why it was going to be right again, the yield curve is a leading economic indicator and warned of the unemployment rate rising back in july/oct 2022 and the unemployment rate bottomed april 2023.. it was right and now the unemployment rate is rising (lagging indicator) which leads to recession. To put this into perspective this is how the GFC played out; Jan 2006 - Yield curve inverts. May 2007 - Unemployment rate bottoms. Sep 18th, 2007 - First rate cut. Oct 2007 - SPX tops. March 2009 - SPX bottoms. October 2009 - Unemployment rate peaks. So it took 45 months for the whole process to play out from yield curve inversion to unemployment rate peaking. It is because of this that people doubt it, but it's always correct. So far: July/Oct 2022 - Yield curve inverts. April 2023 - Unemployment rate bottoms. Sep 18th, 2024 - First rate cut. ? ? - SPX tops. ? ? - SPX bottoms. ? ? - Unemployment rate peaks.
I've said it before and I'll say it again - the credit goes to the yield curve (bond market), it has very little to do with me being right or wrong it has everything to do with the consistent track record of the bond market and understanding why it's always right.. The reason why I care about it is because; 50% macroeconomics is something I'm extremely interested in. 30% is risk management. 20% is because I'm seeking a opportunity in a crisis. There's also huge opportunity cost to going back to breakeven if you rode assets up.
Definitely in a recession currently now that we have actual evidence they've been fudging the numbers. I have a feeling the peak unemployment rate is going to be devastating (right below covid highs). Good video as always.
then why are they trying to repeat the GFC cycle? they literally mirrored the mistakes from back then that lead to the great recession ontop of deleting dollars out of existence (m2 contraction which always leads to depressions).
ye it really makes you question if it's all by design - which it probably is because they obviously know this.. but they are trying to keep people calm.
I don't know when the top comes & I don't know how much it goes down I just know it will because it always does when the unemployment rate rises and you go into recession. If I knew I'd be short assets right now but I'm not because they're all in technical uptrends, better to just bet on TLT going up (same bet but excluding the timing aspect)
Doomers? It's a objective fact that unemployment is rising and that historically IS the recession every single time and ALWAYS leads to a market decline, there's nothing doomy about a objective fact, maybe look at the chart.
Thanks king. Another paycheck into TLT
It'll be fine bro. Don't worry...I don't know why, but I got faith in the system bro
After years of tolding, traxe will eventually be the first person to come out and say "I tolded you!"
If you hold on long enough everyone eventually right, but traxe did Tolded us
It has very little to do with me but more so about the bond market.. I'm just simply explaining to people what a inverted yield curve signifies, why it inverts and why it was going to be right again, the yield curve is a leading economic indicator and warned of the unemployment rate rising back in july/oct 2022 and the unemployment rate bottomed april 2023.. it was right and now the unemployment rate is rising (lagging indicator) which leads to recession.
To put this into perspective this is how the GFC played out;
Jan 2006 - Yield curve inverts.
May 2007 - Unemployment rate bottoms.
Sep 18th, 2007 - First rate cut.
Oct 2007 - SPX tops.
March 2009 - SPX bottoms.
October 2009 - Unemployment rate peaks.
So it took 45 months for the whole process to play out from yield curve inversion to unemployment rate peaking.
It is because of this that people doubt it, but it's always correct.
So far:
July/Oct 2022 - Yield curve inverts.
April 2023 - Unemployment rate bottoms.
Sep 18th, 2024 - First rate cut.
? ? - SPX tops.
? ? - SPX bottoms.
? ? - Unemployment rate peaks.
I've said it before and I'll say it again - the credit goes to the yield curve (bond market), it has very little to do with me being right or wrong it has everything to do with the consistent track record of the bond market and understanding why it's always right..
The reason why I care about it is because;
50% macroeconomics is something I'm extremely interested in.
30% is risk management.
20% is because I'm seeking a opportunity in a crisis.
There's also huge opportunity cost to going back to breakeven if you rode assets up.
@@traxe1117 I had a great reading, I appreciate brother! You probably right spot on, timing is tricky.
Definitely in a recession currently now that we have actual evidence they've been fudging the numbers. I have a feeling the peak unemployment rate is going to be devastating (right below covid highs). Good video as always.
100% agree.
Doubtful. They always have more tricks like COVID to keep the party going.
then why are they trying to repeat the GFC cycle? they literally mirrored the mistakes from back then that lead to the great recession ontop of deleting dollars out of existence (m2 contraction which always leads to depressions).
it's bizarre. history doesn't lie, surely there are at least some people in government who know this is coming but will do nothing?
ye it really makes you question if it's all by design - which it probably is because they obviously know this.. but they are trying to keep people calm.
The great flood wash me away.
It's going to be bad.
Thanks a lot for this. Does this in any way mean we'll have a new ath in crypto and sp500?
I don't know when the top comes & I don't know how much it goes down I just know it will because it always does when the unemployment rate rises and you go into recession. If I knew I'd be short assets right now but I'm not because they're all in technical uptrends, better to just bet on TLT going up (same bet but excluding the timing aspect)
@@traxe1117 Ok. Thanks
Doomers gonna doom. My Raytheon, Lockheed Fartin and L3 Harris stonx all doing well.
Doomers? It's a objective fact that unemployment is rising and that historically IS the recession every single time and ALWAYS leads to a market decline, there's nothing doomy about a objective fact, maybe look at the chart.
@@traxe1117This time it's different.
really bad troll