A lot of food for thought, thank you for this analysis. As we have seen, war has a lot of variables and its progression is hard to predict - yet political decision makers have to take different possible scenarios into account and above all think beyond the end of this war. Only then a strategy can be developed. What's more, the public discourse about the stakes and the aims of Ukraine's fight for its sovereignty needs to intensify as well.
Yes, and the less our governments act out of a false understanding of "deescalation", the more unpredictable the war turns. One needs to set rules in war, not to be dragged by other actors' actions.
Mr. Gressel makes a brilliant statement to which there's nothing to add. The sad part is, western leaders (especially Biden+Scholz) could have come to this conclusion already. We face (at least) two very weak leaders who can't do anything but hold on to their political style hardcoded since decades in their political life. That measn: always seek for the least effort to gain some public and political goals but not to make strategical far forward looking decisions. As Ex defense minister of Britain Wallace said: Scholz is the wrong person at the wrong time in the wrong job.
@@goenzoy712 He's already acting against German people by wrong energy, social and economic policy. By not acting decisevely in Ukraine he's only prolonging the war and enabling Russia to intensify its war effort. Giving Russia another year means another $100bn russian war investment that needs to be countered with dozens of billions from the west while Ukraine's infratsructure still suffers and refugees in GER won't go home. Even the frozen state assets are not seized while they could bring relief. Appeasing Putin is not increasing safety of Germany and raising the costs for german people. A responsible leader wouldn't act like Scholz.
This was extraordinary. I have been waiting for such an overview that pieces all the major moving parts in this conflict together. Look forward to the next chapter! 👍🏻💛💙
The break of support in the beginning of this year has cost thousands of Ukrainian soldiers lives, which could have been avoided. Even the fall of Avdiiivka could have been avoided. In order to just hold the line, Ukraine would need to have much lower casualties than Russia.
Moscow horde´s war record :- 1856 defeated by Britain and France 1905 defeated by Japan 1917 defeated by Germany 1920 defeated by Poland, Finland, Estonia and all Baltic states 1939 defeated by Finland 1969 defeated by China 1989 defeated by Afghanistan 1989 defeated in the Cold War. 1996 defeated by Chechnya 2022 defeated by Ukraine WW2 won USA/Britain , meanwhile Stalin's officers were shot or sent to the Gulags. Millions went to the Gulags, including Solzhenitsyn Moscow's only victories come from invading smaller countries :- a) Hungary 1956 b) Czechoslovakia 1968 c) Moldova 1992 d) Georgia 2008
8:54 Didn't Ukraine promise not to use cluster munitions in Russia proper and to meticulously document in which areas they have been used (for later clearing)? And just for the record, is Mr Gressel of the opinion that cluster munitions are ok to use but not anti-personal mines, biological, chemical and nuclear weapons? Also these are very effective against certain targets.
@@sH-ed5yf What makes you claim that, or are you just making it up? See: Politico: 'Ukraine says cluster munitions will be ‘game changer’ against Russia' APNEWS: 'The US will provide cluster bombs to Ukraine and defends the delivery of the controversial weapon'
Russia has been using cluster munition against Ukraine since the day 1 of the invasion. Russia uses it against civilian targets (residential areas). Cluster munition has never been banned by the US or Ukraine (or almost any country bordering Russia, guess why). There is absolutely nothing illegal or unfair or morally controversial in using cluster munition against Russian military targets.
Ukraine could have won the war already last year but for some reason the USA does not want a victory and just give enough weapons not to lose. There was even a land lease decision but nothing was delivered. I really would love to know why the USA is against an Ukrainian victory.
During the "COLD-WAR", there was an agreement between USSR and US, not to interfier in their sphere of intresst, their "Sanatery-zon" or "Buffer-zone". This view still linger in both Russia and US.
Excellent episode. Clear points, good delivery, best use of my time today.
So happy to hear this! Feel free to recommend this channel (and this format with Gustav Gressel) to your friends!
same!
Thank you dr. Gressel
Great stuff, tank you very much!
L'un des meilleurs observateurs de la guerre. Précis et technique (one of the best observer of the war, a laser analysis).
Nous accordons!
A lot of food for thought, thank you for this analysis. As we have seen, war has a lot of variables and its progression is hard to predict - yet political decision makers have to take different possible scenarios into account and above all think beyond the end of this war. Only then a strategy can be developed. What's more, the public discourse about the stakes and the aims of Ukraine's fight for its sovereignty needs to intensify as well.
Yes, and the less our governments act out of a false understanding of "deescalation", the more unpredictable the war turns. One needs to set rules in war, not to be dragged by other actors' actions.
Mr. Gressel makes a brilliant statement to which there's nothing to add.
The sad part is, western leaders (especially Biden+Scholz) could have come to this conclusion already.
We face (at least) two very weak leaders who can't do anything but hold on to their political style hardcoded since decades in their political life.
That measn: always seek for the least effort to gain some public and political goals but not to make strategical far forward looking decisions.
As Ex defense minister of Britain Wallace said: Scholz is the wrong person at the wrong time in the wrong job.
agree !!
we adore his analysis!
Scholz is responsible for Germany not Ukraine
@@goenzoy712 He's already acting against German people by wrong energy, social and economic policy.
By not acting decisevely in Ukraine he's only prolonging the war and enabling Russia to intensify its war effort.
Giving Russia another year means another $100bn russian war investment that needs to be countered with dozens of billions from the west while Ukraine's infratsructure still suffers and refugees in GER won't go home.
Even the frozen state assets are not seized while they could bring relief.
Appeasing Putin is not increasing safety of Germany and raising the costs for german people. A responsible leader wouldn't act like Scholz.
S
This was extraordinary.
I have been waiting for such an overview that pieces all the major moving parts in this conflict together.
Look forward to the next chapter!
👍🏻💛💙
That is why we love Gustav's Battlefield Breakdowns!
That was excellent, thank you.
This analysis is something that the Biden administration should watch......daily!
Informative
Clear as sunlight
Yes, Dr. Gressel is amazing! We are happy that you liked it!
Pretty good and stable analysis
The perception of Russia as an imperial-power must end, before any peace deal with Russia can be made.
The break of support in the beginning of this year has cost thousands of Ukrainian soldiers lives, which could have been avoided. Even the fall of Avdiiivka could have been avoided. In order to just hold the line, Ukraine would need to have much lower casualties than Russia.
We see 1950 era tanks, Korean shells and mercenaries. The fall of Crimea will have a huge impact.
Moscow horde´s war record :-
1856 defeated by Britain and France
1905 defeated by Japan
1917 defeated by Germany
1920 defeated by Poland, Finland, Estonia and all Baltic states
1939 defeated by Finland
1969 defeated by China
1989 defeated by Afghanistan
1989 defeated in the Cold War.
1996 defeated by Chechnya
2022 defeated by Ukraine
WW2 won USA/Britain , meanwhile Stalin's officers were shot or sent to the Gulags. Millions went to the Gulags, including Solzhenitsyn
Moscow's only victories come from invading smaller countries :-
a) Hungary 1956
b) Czechoslovakia 1968
c) Moldova 1992
d) Georgia 2008
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦✌✌🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
Indeed!
8:54 Didn't Ukraine promise not to use cluster munitions in Russia proper and to meticulously document in which areas they have been used (for later clearing)? And just for the record, is Mr Gressel of the opinion that cluster munitions are ok to use but not anti-personal mines, biological, chemical and nuclear weapons? Also these are very effective against certain targets.
Nope they never promissed that. Why recieve eapons of you dont use them
@@sH-ed5yf What makes you claim that, or are you just making it up? See:
Politico: 'Ukraine says cluster munitions will be ‘game changer’ against Russia'
APNEWS: 'The US will provide cluster bombs to Ukraine and defends the delivery of the controversial weapon'
Russia has been using cluster munition against Ukraine since the day 1 of the invasion. Russia uses it against civilian targets (residential areas). Cluster munition has never been banned by the US or Ukraine (or almost any country bordering Russia, guess why). There is absolutely nothing illegal or unfair or morally controversial in using cluster munition against Russian military targets.
@@Pierluigi_Di_Lorenzo yes ukraine uses wapons against russian invaders. What is your point
@@EuroResilience You didn't answer the the questions.
Ukraine could have won the war already last year but for some reason the USA does not want a victory and just give enough weapons not to lose. There was even a land lease decision but nothing was delivered. I really would love to know why the USA is against an Ukrainian victory.
During the "COLD-WAR", there was an agreement between USSR and US, not to interfier in their sphere of intresst, their "Sanatery-zon" or "Buffer-zone".
This view still linger in both Russia and US.
Ukraine can win???
Ukraine IS winning.