A few times TBA says birthrates have been declining for a long time and suggests that this is somehow a sign that it's not all that bad and as if it's a counter argument to what the alarmists are saying but it's not, the fact that it's been happening for a long time would make it a more concerning, more desperate situation with every passing day. And the fact that the global fertility rate is still (just) above replacement doesn't help the Koreans, Japanese, Chinese, Europeans or any other people with below replacement birthrates, and I never hear or read about a projected turnaround where birthrates are expected to go up again or even level off, birthrates have been going down for decades and that trend is expected to continue. Where does that lead? Even if the rates stabilize but stay below replacement levels then those people will eventually cease to exist, in other words they'll go extinct. Mass immigration doesn't change that in any way, it just fills the country with other people from somewhere else. Alarmist or alarming? To be clear, I'm not on the side of the alarmists (or the opposite side), but I haven't heard anything in this video or from experts, governments or institutions like the UN why we shouldn't be worried about these (continuingly falling) below replacement birthrates.
A: "Look, the music is still playing at the Titanic." B: "But you realize it's sinking, right?" A: "It's just a water level change, nothing unusual. We have have been on this trajectory for a while now anyway and look, I am still dry, you are still dry. It's not like this never happened before. Things go up, things go down, people adapt." B: "But you realize we are sinking, right?" A: "Anyway, I am sure you understand now how these alarmists are misunderstanding the data about the water level change and I hope I have given you some piece of mind,..." B: "You are joking, right?"
The issue stems from the Industrial Revolution and oligarchy. We forget how long it took to adapt to the agricultural revolution. I view it the same with the industrial revolution.
I'm with Elon Musk on this issue. The latest data from South America this year is truly startling. Births fell in Mexico last year by a whopping 17%. So far this year compared to last year, births are down 14% in Colombia and Brazil, and a staggering 23% in Chile. This is not normal. We are heading into uncharted territory.
I'm sorry but saying population decline is not a big deal because it has been going on for a long time is the same as saying climate change is not a big deal because it has been going on for a long time. You don't really provide much evidence to back up your claims. Don't get me wrong I don't think we should start getting children for the sake of GDP growth, but I think it is concerning that no industrialised country has managed to reverse this trend. The big drop in working age population is yet to come in most industrialised countries.
7:26 In the case of Japan, economic stagnation occurred. And increasing debt to pay for pensions and health insurance. Companies are reducing the amount of money spent on R&D. And it is difficult for the government to grow the economy when 800,000 customers Disappearing every year .Reducing market size. And ultimately reduces the size of the economy (GDP)
I'd say it's worse than initially thought. People studying it are doing so from a data perspective. Actually living in a low wage economy with people at the same level, I'd say it will actually be a sheer drop.
I remember why I stopped following him again. Endless blather. Even when he gets started, it's still just 'Elon Musk this and Elon Musk that ' but nothing concrete.
15:50 What differentiates the 1980s from the 2020s It is true that countries of origin of immigrants (india , cina , Mexico, Brazil) also experience a decline in fertility rates below replacement levels. Many predict that even countries that are liberal with Policy immigration (United States of America) will not find enough immigrants to replace their ageing population by the 2040s.
Sorry, as a first time listener, after 5 minutes of a slow presentation style I didn't have a sense of what you are about or what you are bringing to the discussion, so I gave up.
After the whole video, I can confirm, he brought no point in order to alleviate my concerns of the globally falling birth rate. All the cited statistics only served to underscore the seriousness of the problem. I think the guy fails to grasp the real long-term concerns of some people that won't really impact them personally but may bring about the sunset of humanity in a couple of centuries.
@GreenTeaViewer is your brain really so fried that you need a complex topic blended down to a tik tok style mush and force fed to you within 5 minutes?
Fertility is presently not an acute problem! More likely annihilation before any population collapse. But not having enough fodder for the money machine and the meat grinder!?
Sir, just started this video, a subject I’ve considered for many years. My only comment is we have to look at both reproduction rates vs death rates. That’s the main two elements. Ok I’ll sit back and listen carefully;-).
I completely disagree with your take on this. I don't think you have really looked at the births data closely enough. Just look at the steep fall in births all across the world (except sub-Saharan Africa) in just the last eight years. Look at the births data from Turkey, Iran, Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Eastern Europe, Latin America, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, China, Japan, Taiwan, S Korea etc. There are already about 40 countries in the world where deaths are now greater than births, and every year that list gets longer. In the next three years it is highly likely that France, the UK, Chile, Albania, Montenegro, Malta, Armenia, Mauritius, Sweden, and other countries in the Caribbean will join this list of countries entering natural decline. India has seen births fall from over 28 million a year in 2000 to just 23 million last year. This fall in births is not going to suddenly stop. I really think you have your head in the sand.
I think a lot of people were having kids back in the day due to social pressures (i.e. it's what you do & give me grandkids) and a lot of people were having them without much thought. Now people are more informed and have taken the time to give it an iota of a thought. Sure, some people have the desire and feel like they can't -- primarily because of finances, but I also think more people than we think don't want kids. What Elon and the likes are doing is reproductive coersion on a societal level and I'm thrilled people can see through it. Personally, if this keeps up, I look forward to giving something back to indigenous people, wildlife, & ecosystems. The perpetual taking of the modern world is heart breaking.
Alright guys in simple words. Almost all nations are going thru a population crisis. The reasons are different from country to country or sometimes are the same but the consequences will be the same worldwide. We are going to suffer a lot because companies and governments will want to squeeze us for every dollar we can make from them. Which will lead to more working hours and less time with family and friends. You will live terrible lives because there won’t be that many workers causing trade jobs will increase price and other industries will increase prices because lack of workers. There will be a huge depression crisis because people won’t have kids or families leading to higher rates of suicides and chaos. The reasons that lead us to this path is abandonment of God which was our morals and community building. We stopped protecting our children and are over-sexualized by teen tv shows, movies, video games, books and social media that are extremely dangerous to young minds. We don’t invest enough time to our youth. Lack of opportunities in our countries because Corporations and politicians have team up to make themselves as rich as possible by any means. They sold our jobs overseas and now there isn’t enough high income jobs to start families or to live a decent life.
Musk and facts are pretty alien to each other. His "civil war" claim during a brief period of yobbery, hooliganism and vandalism in parts of Britain a few weeks ago was truly baffling and monumentally ignorant.
Sorry, Elon Musk is one of the last people who has any credibility with me. Do we really need to keep human populations at the current level or more? Seems likely that the Earth and its ecosystems could do with fewer humans. What happens when climate change strains resources rather than maintaining them? Humans are supposed to be so mentally superior. What does it say for human ability to adapt if they cannot do so while other life forms can? Falling populations might inconvenience current human ways of doing things. That does not mean it is a bad thing for the planet. It most likely means we will need to rethink many of our ways of doing things. There is nothing sacrosanct about our current economic systems which in certain respects are far from just and create problems for more than they reward. I really doubt that Elon Musk’s motives are in fact all that altruistic.
Do you want the human race to commit suicide just because of our supposed negative impact on the environment? You come across to me as a sort of traitor to your own species. As people live increasingly in cities there will be more than enough free land for other animals to exist. Indeed the areas outside the cities might even become nature reserves or some such.
People concerned with climate have currently particularly low fertility. What happens if this is true and future belongs to clueless populists? Fewer people is easier to manage but it may not mean more innovation or climate policy. We have decades of growth before population peeks but children are already now missing on the green side more than the "I dont care" side. Is that still good in your view?
God, can you be an even larger eco-fascist? Less people mean less artists, scientists, philosophers or poets, less beauty. Its also economically disastrous. You are a misanthrope. The population isnt declining anyways, its rising quite fast, thankfully.
@@AprezaRenaldy 1990s were the most active decade for the United States, with a total of 31 hurricanes affecting the nation. By contrast, the least active decade was the 1860s and 1970s, each with a total of only 15 hurricanes affecting the United States. 90s 35 years ago hasn't got worse
A lot of talk, but saying very little. Basically you're saying there's no threat of population collapse because of reasons. And what are those reasons? Who cares? Sounds like you're part of the special club.
Yep, he worked in the government that seamlessly provides you with roads, clean water, security, an ability to participate in decision-making and so much more. You should be more grateful.
0:21 According to the UN the world population will not decline before 2084. But that's the whole world. Meanwhile, Japan , South Korea, China, Taiwan Already Experiencing a continuously decreasing population.
A key factor not mentioned in this programme is the coming age of robots and artificial intelligence which promises to greatly reduce the need for human labour. If this new age does arrive all the talk of not having enough people of working age to support the increasingly older population becomes redundant. In fact, it could avoid a mass unemployment crisis with all the dangerous consequences that could flow from this. Also, if automation significantly raises living standards by 2100, reduces working hours, and makes housing more available and affordable, it is possible that women will decide to have more children. Then there is the strong possibility that medicine will greatly improve over the next 50-70 years which will drive up life expectancy by decades and thus prove UN forecasts of population levels in 2100 much too conservative. The above examples demonstrate how many possibilities there are in the future and how difficult it is for us today to project outcomes by 2100.
I think population decline will be good, that I think is the best way to adapt to a world with diminished energy sources and a way to not be in ecological overshoot.
Except the worst people are overbreeding & the best people are barely breeding at all. You won’t like the future that’s coming. Current demographics are already awful in most countries.
The debate about migration came to a head after 9/11 in Europe which was mainly driven by the fear of the claim that the Muslim population would have more children and eventually start to outnumber the native white populations. Niall Ferguson and others subscribed to this Eurabia theory. Don't think it is true though past 2nd generation of Muslim immigrants are on par with the native population. That's a great point about peak population that I was thinking about regarding Asian countries like China and Japan which are some of the most population-dense countries in the world. South Korea and China enacted population control measures decades ago but have seen their countries economies boom dispelling the myth of the reverse demographic triangle where you have to have 2 or 3 children for every adult to support the retiring older generation.
"Don't think it is true though past 2nd generation of Muslim immigrants are on par with the native population." Doesn't matter if immigration keeps going.
Since the Industrial Revolution, the sheer scope of exploitation of employees is arguably no different than brutal slavery and far worse than how serfs/peasants were treated. Work typically was 4-6 hour days every other day. Work today is 40 hours a week with a few holiday breaks. 2/3 of your life is spent on working and sleeping. It’s so engraved in our modern culture that I don’t think a revolution would work. Then, capitalism of marriage and children via divorce or child support, and people reject marriage because it’s a financial risk. Society is addicted to capitalism, and it has become the modern religion. The tragic irony is that the military-industrial complex has become the power most likely to liberate us from our addiction and might kill a few billion people in the process.
Serfs worked even more on average. They just worked irregularly. Their work was backbreaking and intense. They were also immensely less healthy and wealthy, which is to say that they got nearly nothing in exchange for their work. This isn't capitalism, it's nature. All human societies outside of some hunter-gatherers have been immensely unequal, including all the failed socialist projects of the past.
@@spiritnone2818 Not quite. Humans had a limit to what they could do and a healthy serf is beneficial compared to a sick or beaten serf. And no they didn’t work more on average if you look into feudalism the bosses wanted them to work more but had to compromise.
A few times TBA says birthrates have been declining for a long time and suggests that this is somehow a sign that it's not all that bad and as if it's a counter argument to what the alarmists are saying but it's not, the fact that it's been happening for a long time would make it a more concerning, more desperate situation with every passing day. And the fact that the global fertility rate is still (just) above replacement doesn't help the Koreans, Japanese, Chinese, Europeans or any other people with below replacement birthrates, and I never hear or read about a projected turnaround where birthrates are expected to go up again or even level off, birthrates have been going down for decades and that trend is expected to continue. Where does that lead? Even if the rates stabilize but stay below replacement levels then those people will eventually cease to exist, in other words they'll go extinct. Mass immigration doesn't change that in any way, it just fills the country with other people from somewhere else. Alarmist or alarming?
To be clear, I'm not on the side of the alarmists (or the opposite side), but I haven't heard anything in this video or from experts, governments or institutions like the UN why we shouldn't be worried about these (continuingly falling) below replacement birthrates.
A: "Look, the music is still playing at the Titanic."
B: "But you realize it's sinking, right?"
A: "It's just a water level change, nothing unusual. We have have been on this trajectory for a while now anyway and look, I am still dry, you are still dry. It's not like this never happened before. Things go up, things go down, people adapt."
B: "But you realize we are sinking, right?"
A: "Anyway, I am sure you understand now how these alarmists are misunderstanding the data about the water level change and I hope I have given you some piece of mind,..."
B: "You are joking, right?"
@@shyzunkHilariously on point 👌😂👍
The issue stems from the Industrial Revolution and oligarchy.
We forget how long it took to adapt to the agricultural revolution.
I view it the same with the industrial revolution.
I'm with Elon Musk on this issue. The latest data from South America this year is truly startling. Births fell in Mexico last year by a whopping 17%. So far this year compared to last year, births are down 14% in Colombia and Brazil, and a staggering 23% in Chile. This is not normal. We are heading into uncharted territory.
@@lelnewc How accurate is that data?
I'm sorry but saying population decline is not a big deal because it has been going on for a long time is the same as saying climate change is not a big deal because it has been going on for a long time. You don't really provide much evidence to back up your claims.
Don't get me wrong I don't think we should start getting children for the sake of GDP growth, but I think it is concerning that no industrialised country has managed to reverse this trend. The big drop in working age population is yet to come in most industrialised countries.
@@alexzimmi4827 the decline in birth rate give me hope that humanity can surwife.
Substitute pollution for ‘climate change’ and we agree.
7:26 In the case of Japan, economic stagnation occurred. And increasing debt to pay for pensions and health insurance.
Companies are reducing the amount of money spent on R&D.
And it is difficult for the government to grow the economy when 800,000 customers Disappearing every year .Reducing market size. And ultimately reduces the size of the economy (GDP)
I'd say it's worse than initially thought. People studying it are doing so from a data perspective. Actually living in a low wage economy with people at the same level, I'd say it will actually be a sheer drop.
5 30 and still not started
I remember why I stopped following him again. Endless blather. Even when he gets started, it's still just 'Elon Musk this and Elon Musk that ' but nothing concrete.
15:50 What differentiates the 1980s from the 2020s It is true that countries of origin of immigrants (india , cina , Mexico, Brazil) also experience a decline in fertility rates below replacement levels.
Many predict that even countries that are liberal with Policy immigration (United States of America) will not find enough immigrants to replace their ageing population by the 2040s.
Exactly
And immigration of people who are not similar to us is VERY bad, anyway - witness the utter failure of multiculturalism.
Sorry, as a first time listener, after 5 minutes of a slow presentation style I didn't have a sense of what you are about or what you are bringing to the discussion, so I gave up.
After the whole video, I can confirm, he brought no point in order to alleviate my concerns of the globally falling birth rate. All the cited statistics only served to underscore the seriousness of the problem.
I think the guy fails to grasp the real long-term concerns of some people that won't really impact them personally but may bring about the sunset of humanity in a couple of centuries.
Horrible presentation style.
@GreenTeaViewer is your brain really so fried that you need a complex topic blended down to a tik tok style mush and force fed to you within 5 minutes?
@@m0use1983 nope, how about yours?
Fertility is presently not an acute problem! More likely annihilation before any population collapse. But not having enough fodder for the money machine and the meat grinder!?
Sir, just started this video, a subject I’ve considered for many years. My only comment is we have to look at both reproduction rates vs death rates. That’s the main two elements. Ok I’ll sit back and listen carefully;-).
I completely disagree with your take on this. I don't think you have really looked at the births data closely enough. Just look at the steep fall in births all across the world (except sub-Saharan Africa) in just the last eight years. Look at the births data from Turkey, Iran, Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Eastern Europe, Latin America, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, China, Japan, Taiwan, S Korea etc. There are already about 40 countries in the world where deaths are now greater than births, and every year that list gets longer. In the next three years it is highly likely that France, the UK, Chile, Albania, Montenegro, Malta, Armenia, Mauritius, Sweden, and other countries in the Caribbean will join this list of countries entering natural decline. India has seen births fall from over 28 million a year in 2000 to just 23 million last year. This fall in births is not going to suddenly stop. I really think you have your head in the sand.
Would be interested in your views on Bill Rees and his ideas on population.
I think a lot of people were having kids back in the day due to social pressures (i.e. it's what you do & give me grandkids) and a lot of people were having them without much thought. Now people are more informed and have taken the time to give it an iota of a thought. Sure, some people have the desire and feel like they can't -- primarily because of finances, but I also think more people than we think don't want kids. What Elon and the likes are doing is reproductive coersion on a societal level and I'm thrilled people can see through it. Personally, if this keeps up, I look forward to giving something back to indigenous people, wildlife, & ecosystems. The perpetual taking of the modern world is heart breaking.
Very wise observation. thank you
No, many people have lost all sense of meaning & purpose and instead of doing what’s best for all life are pursuing nihilistic lives of hedonism.
Alright guys in simple words. Almost all nations are going thru a population crisis. The reasons are different from country to country or sometimes are the same but the consequences will be the same worldwide. We are going to suffer a lot because companies and governments will want to squeeze us for every dollar we can make from them. Which will lead to more working hours and less time with family and friends. You will live terrible lives because there won’t be that many workers causing trade jobs will increase price and other industries will increase prices because lack of workers. There will be a huge depression crisis because people won’t have kids or families leading to higher rates of suicides and chaos. The reasons that lead us to this path is abandonment of God which was our morals and community building. We stopped protecting our children and are over-sexualized by teen tv shows, movies, video games, books and social media that are extremely dangerous to young minds. We don’t invest enough time to our youth. Lack of opportunities in our countries because Corporations and politicians have team up to make themselves as rich as possible by any means. They sold our jobs overseas and now there isn’t enough high income jobs to start families or to live a decent life.
Musk and facts are pretty alien to each other. His "civil war" claim during a brief period of yobbery, hooliganism and vandalism in parts of Britain a few weeks ago was truly baffling and monumentally ignorant.
Too right @@burntgod7165 , Elon Musk is a huxter and ideologue.
Wolves are upset that the sheep aren't breeding.
Lol!! True.
@@Recuper8 Ooh that's a very catchy if empty statement.
Sorry, Elon Musk is one of the last people who has any credibility with me. Do we really need to keep human populations at the current level or more? Seems likely that the Earth and its ecosystems could do with fewer humans. What happens when climate change strains resources rather than maintaining them? Humans are supposed to be so mentally superior. What does it say for human ability to adapt if they cannot do so while other life forms can? Falling populations might inconvenience current human ways of doing things. That does not mean it is a bad thing for the planet. It most likely means we will need to rethink many of our ways of doing things. There is nothing sacrosanct about our current economic systems which in certain respects are far from just and create problems for more than they reward. I really doubt that Elon Musk’s motives are in fact all that altruistic.
Do you want the human race to commit suicide just because of our supposed negative impact on the environment? You come across to me as a sort of traitor to your own species.
As people live increasingly in cities there will be more than enough free land for other animals to exist. Indeed the areas outside the cities might even become nature reserves or some such.
People concerned with climate have currently particularly low fertility. What happens if this is true and future belongs to clueless populists? Fewer people is easier to manage but it may not mean more innovation or climate policy. We have decades of growth before population peeks but children are already now missing on the green side more than the "I dont care" side. Is that still good in your view?
EM's business is mass transportation and technology. These sectors need lots of people to make them economically viable.
@@shirleynoble685 nicely said.
God, can you be an even larger eco-fascist? Less people mean less artists, scientists, philosophers or poets, less beauty.
Its also economically disastrous.
You are a misanthrope.
The population isnt declining anyways, its rising quite fast, thankfully.
Please review dawn of everything by David Graeber
I remember how everyone used to say that every year was better than the year before and that there was a sense of positivity for the future.
@@goodmoringful you must be old. I do not remember a time when every year things got better.
apply the same solutions to climate change, just adapt
@@anthonycoyle2889 If your house sinks or is destroyed by a storm. Just move.
@@AprezaRenaldy yes just move or improve your house to weather to storm
@@anthonycoyle2889 RIP Lusiana & Florida
@@AprezaRenaldy 1990s were the most active decade for the United States, with a total of 31 hurricanes affecting the nation. By contrast, the least active decade was the 1860s and 1970s, each with a total of only 15 hurricanes affecting the United States. 90s 35 years ago hasn't got worse
A lot of talk, but saying very little. Basically you're saying there's no threat of population collapse because of reasons. And what are those reasons? Who cares? Sounds like you're part of the special club.
Never heard so much empty BS. It’s abundantly clear he worked in the government. 😬
Yep, he worked in the government that seamlessly provides you with roads, clean water, security, an ability to participate in decision-making and so much more. You should be more grateful.
0:21 According to the UN the world population will not decline before 2084. But that's the whole world.
Meanwhile, Japan , South Korea, China, Taiwan Already Experiencing a continuously decreasing population.
UN is wrong almost for every country. The world population will shrink much much sooner.
UN is bluntly making up projections that never come true. Their projections are way off.
11:28 😂 club of rome Must be happy with this news
You seem to be a big fan of Elon Musk, judging by the many times you quoted him. The world does not revolve around Musk!
Not a fan of Musk, but he is a better known person than I am. So I used him to illustrate the kind of arguments I disagree with during the video.
A key factor not mentioned in this programme is the coming age of robots and artificial intelligence which promises to greatly reduce the need for human labour. If this new age does arrive all the talk of not having enough people of working age to support the increasingly older population becomes redundant. In fact, it could avoid a mass unemployment crisis with all the dangerous consequences that could flow from this. Also, if automation significantly raises living standards by 2100, reduces working hours, and makes housing more available and affordable, it is possible that women will decide to have more children.
Then there is the strong possibility that medicine will greatly improve over the next 50-70 years which will drive up life expectancy by decades and thus prove UN forecasts of population levels in 2100 much too conservative.
The above examples demonstrate how many possibilities there are in the future and how difficult it is for us today to project outcomes by 2100.
Delusions. We've been in a technological stagnation for decades. The web and AI have brought no productivity gains, it's all a hollow fanfare.
You can't Math
Thanks I started a podcast called Zero Fertility Future - love to get in touch
OK! Please get in contact via email theburningarchive@gmail.com
I think population decline will be good, that I think is the best way to adapt to a world with diminished energy sources and a way to not be in ecological overshoot.
Except the worst people are overbreeding & the best people are barely breeding at all. You won’t like the future that’s coming. Current demographics are already awful in most countries.
The debate about migration came to a head after 9/11 in Europe which was mainly driven by the fear of the claim that the Muslim population would have more children and eventually start to outnumber the native white populations. Niall Ferguson and others subscribed to this Eurabia theory.
Don't think it is true though past 2nd generation of Muslim immigrants are on par with the native population.
That's a great point about peak population that I was thinking about regarding Asian countries like China and Japan which are some of the most population-dense countries in the world.
South Korea and China enacted population control measures decades ago but have seen their countries economies boom dispelling the myth of the reverse demographic triangle where you have to have 2 or 3 children for every adult to support the retiring older generation.
"Don't think it is true though past 2nd generation of Muslim immigrants are on par with the native population."
Doesn't matter if immigration keeps going.
Population collapse i.e no more slaves to milk 😂
Since the Industrial Revolution, the sheer scope of exploitation of employees is arguably no different than brutal slavery and far worse than how serfs/peasants were treated.
Work typically was 4-6 hour days every other day.
Work today is 40 hours a week with a few holiday breaks.
2/3 of your life is spent on working and sleeping.
It’s so engraved in our modern culture that I don’t think a revolution would work.
Then, capitalism of marriage and children via divorce or child support, and people reject marriage because it’s a financial risk.
Society is addicted to capitalism, and it has become the modern religion.
The tragic irony is that the military-industrial complex has become the power most likely to liberate us from our addiction and might kill a few billion people in the process.
Serfs worked even more on average. They just worked irregularly. Their work was backbreaking and intense. They were also immensely less healthy and wealthy, which is to say that they got nearly nothing in exchange for their work. This isn't capitalism, it's nature. All human societies outside of some hunter-gatherers have been immensely unequal, including all the failed socialist projects of the past.
@@spiritnone2818 Not quite.
Humans had a limit to what they could do and a healthy serf is beneficial compared to a sick or beaten serf.
And no they didn’t work more on average if you look into feudalism the bosses wanted them to work more but had to compromise.
Wolves are worried that sheeps are not multiplying.
Ohhhhhhh noooooooo