Global Population to Drop for the First Time Since the Black Death | How We Got Here
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- Опубліковано 10 лют 2025
- Humanity stands on the brink of a significant historical shift as it enters the age of depopulation. For the first time since the Black Death in the 1300s, a global population decline is anticipated, driven not by disease but by falling birthrates resulting from personal choices and societal changes. Since the 1960s, global fertility rates have halved, with many countries now below replacement levels. East Asian nations, particularly Japan, China, South Korea, and Taiwan, are already facing significant depopulation. Even regions traditionally associated with higher birthrates, like North Africa and the Middle East, are experiencing declines. Iran has been sub-replacement for about 25 years, with Turkey and Tunisia showing similar trends. What is the reason for this? How can we stop the process? Will humanity suffer the same fate as the dinosaurs?
Join Jan Darasz and his guest, Krzysztof Tymicki from the Warsaw School of Economics, for How We Got Here.
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I looked at the world I live in and said to myself "why on earth would I ever bring children into this world?" I love my children so much that I never conceived them.
The world can be beautiful and you are naive. Having children is my favourite part of life so far.
That s real love.
Mine and Elons kids will inherit the stars.
Yes.🕊️🙏🌎
I felt the same way. Childless because of the human shit show.
The problem is, It's the intelligent people who are having fewer children.
True. It's because intelligent rational people are able to see beyond the dogma.of breeding and realise that it is simply selfish and egocentric to voluntarily want to add new human beings into this massively overpopulated and dying planet. Livin' n' lovin' the child free life.
MOST of the people are not having babies. Let s commemorate it.
The result is that the remaining population will have a great garbage avalanche. If the system wants anything good, it can go make a world where smart people have children as a rational good choice.
Exactly! 😢
The video I saw before this one said the data is beginning to show the opposite - the more educated women are beginning to have higher birth rates, I suspect simply as they can afford to. Also, what a rude comment to make in the first place.
When our world is not a place where we want to bring our children, we will choose not to have children.
Hopefully the realisation that the world's population will go into decline in the next 30 years will encourage people to think about the meaning and purpose of their lives. For centuries the goal has been growth, growth, growth, both in terms of money but also in terms of population size.
Perhaps now people will value quality of life above quantity in life.
Hopefully it will encourage the rich and the government to rethink their policies. They only thought of themselves reducing people to slavery. They can't have it both ways
@@freespiritable well said
It's always been about the money
I suspect the population is declining today. If you looks at the data, China's population could be 500 million people less than what they state. How did their population increase significantly if they had a 1 child policy for 35 years?
@@Kevriyal5654 Indeed. China's statistics are a bit sus. Although in truth the population won't start declining until the replacement rate has dropped below 2.1
Maybe if the supposed leaders of the countries had more respect for and treated their country's population decently and eliminated the need for using them as cannon fodder for imperialistic wars, people might see a reason for having kids.
We are just peasants. Not sure I'm comfortable bringing more indentured servants into service.
Well to be fair, it's not the population that needs to be treated well, it's only women who need to be treated well..yet, the very opposite has happened. They put all their eggs on men, but meb don't birth shit.
You are half right i was supprissed. The age of imperial empires has passed. The days of Europe controlling the world is over. Franx Fanon The African scholer who started the decolanisation movement said revenge is the only way ahead. You have your nation facing the hostile world who hate you for the past! Every one who say decolanise means i want my Revenge on You. The world has changed.
Franx Fanon "Fanon begins with the premise that decolonization is, by definition, a violent process without exception. The object of that process is the eventual replacement of one group of humans with another, and that process is only complete when the transition is total. This conception of decolonization is based on Fanon's construction of the colonial world. " He is the Farther of Decolanisation being taught to actavists near you.
Capitalist healthcare in the US makes it nearly financially impossible to have a kid. This has been a major deterrent, along with the lack of commitment to stay together for eighteen years. None of my siblings had any kids, when me and my brother and sisters die, so does our family name.
😕 It's the same thing with me, the Edward Mann bloodline is cut off. I'm 76.
Education and healthcare should be in government control and government funded because it's necessary for everyone
It's not luxury
@@IndianAmericanTrumpSuppoter government funded programs are not always the most effective or successful. They don’t always produce the best outcomes
Especially in the US. Government education has resulted in less intelligent individuals and lower test scores, government post office isn’t significantly effective, esp compared to private postal services, governmental welfare is often abused, governmental/public funded healthcare is often less effective, slower, for some reason bloated and more expensive (potentially abused, corrupted, gamed, rigged, etc)
I could go on.
I agree that some things are necessity, but unfortunately governmental programs aren’t always the answer. They don’t solve the problem the best way possible. But governmental regulations and kind of guiding industries and keep industries/companies/etc fair and not out of control
Basically government and private industry can work together. Society, people, government, and even companies, should prioritize PEOPLE first. Citizens first. Quality of life first
But also balance productivity and sustainability and whatnot
Same thing is happening in Socialist/Communist nations., but I see your point.
@@IndianAmericanTrumpSuppoter Education doesn't need to be governement funded. Stop being state reliant.
Work longer? Whatever happened to the utopian future we were promised when robots did all the work?
Sorry, the robots are busy making music and movies and writing code. Still need humans to do the real work.
Why would robots produce stuff? Who is going to consume?
Earth is balancing itself.
No it's not. It's unbalanced. Population is very hard to recover due to time it takes for growth
Yes, it surely will!
In about 30 Million years.
When you make life not worth living due to immoral business practices, why would anyone bring forth life???
The world could decline by 5 billion, and we would hardly notice. What we would notice is a huge drop in home prices, more home availability, greener neighborhoods and cleaner air, less worldwide pollution, less crime, etc.
@Atheistically69 People weren't complaining much about living with lower average incomes 70 years ago. Why? Because they had safer neighborhoods, affordable homes, better infrastructure, a better public school system, higher standards, etc. Those qualities are worth having over higher pay to most people.
you can't eat money.
Intresting you want the Indians Africans and Chineese to not have Kids? Less crime and pollution? Your so amazing with your insights!!!! Love you !!!
@BeachandHills-hb2pq China is the top producer of pollution worldwide today. Africa has some of the worlds highest crime rates and the highest poverty rates. India is the world's most populated country with the highest density of people that isn't an island, and which produces mass quantities of pollution, second only to China. Now, tell me. Which statements are untrue? 😌
@@Salty.Peasants H H H. You would be arrested for thinking those thoughts in some countrys in Europe . LOL your so much fun. You beleve this can be solved bu population reduction. Interesting Times Indeed.
Humans being not the brightest animal on the planet, let their numbers grow to an unsustainable level. Its been the elephant in the room for decades. Its a good thing that the volume of humans is going to decrease. We need quality NOT QUANTITY.
Couldn't have said it better, quality not quantity. Excellent comment, thank you. 👍👍👍
so just who/what do you consider the brightest animal on the planet? Just curious.
I’d rather have more dolphins than more people. That’s just me.
@@darriusgivans6570 Same here. I'd rather have more rats and snakes than more of us lot - we are nasty bloodthirsty lot
I often argued that the Idiocracy continues to breed.
"Wolves are mad why the sheeps aren't breeding"
The only reason they care is they need a lot of poor people to make billionaires
Absolutely. They only care about money and not about quality of life.
It is quiet natural. Exponential growth cannot continue forever in a natural system
The wolf's are angry that the sheeps aren't reproducing.
Wolves *
It's not just about us. We're causing the biggest species die-off since the dinosaurs. Reducing our numbers will be a good thing in the long run.
😂 reducing yours might be … mine will inherit the earth
Oh no the corporate overlords are concerned their wage slaves dont want to reproduce and force their children to be wage slaves…
When the hamsters say 'Fuck the wheel!'
The decline of humanity has been ongoing now for decades. Only not in a sense displayed in this video.
I don't know about you, but instead of worrying, I'm just getting excited 😊
Why?
You can't be serious the fewer people on the planet the better it means more resources for all and less pollution in the future.
@@Toastcat890 it isn't going to be gradual reduction, but a collapse where the damage to the world will become far worse.
@@gerrythomson5482less people to exploit means collapse of current system,it will also benefit future generations ,whats not exiting about that
@@Toastcat890not if the rich who consume too much are the ones surviving
Baby Boomers cared nothing for the younger Generations. Why should younger Generations care for their concerns.
I am more concerned about the younger generation care and contributions then the boomers one.
@@maxcloutier5285 when the younger generation needed the older generation. The older generation was too busy drinking, fornicating and buying RVs. Now that the younger generation has stepped into adulthood..... now they want to be parents. Thanks but no thanks we'll figure it out without them.
What are you on about? Loads of boomers are providing for their children to give them a head start now because they realise how bad the economy is.
I can't wait 'till our numbers start dropping off a cliff. Way too many people around, too much pressure on housing, land and general prices and too much downward pressure on wages, and that's not mentioning the pressure on the environment. My only regret is that I'll be in my 60's by the time we'll really see the drop off. We're still in the stagnation period.
When will it stop?
8 billion? 9 billion? 100 billion?
Nature has spoken.
The Pill has spoken. Population will shrink until mass manufacture and distribution of birth control is no longer possible. This could be a two-century process.
Oh no! The human population is decreasing? What a disaster!
There were 2.8 billion humans on Earth when I was born in the mid 50s. The population has TRIPLED in my lifetime. Humans are a plague. 8 billion + is simply insane.
Ultra rich people are worried because they are loosing slaves...😂😂😂
This is not about rich vs poor, this is about questioning the sustainability of modern society to function. All societies have to acknowledge that the big issue is not much population drop but mostly it's median population aging
@@Suduliciousit’s good to consolidate. In future, countries with merge
Not reproducing ourselves into mass starvation is probably a really good direction for our species
Modern women. You are amazing. Please 🙏🏿 continue with the decline. Well done 👍🏿.
Thank you. We appreciate the support.
thanks, I made this decision not to have children when I was 14 years old and now I am 42 with no children, I foresaw all this coming from when I was a child
We’re just coming to an end of the crazy population explosion (bomb) that went of in the late 20th century. An entirely unsustainable number of people were added with all the associated economic growth and linked pollution etc. In the long term it’s better to get back to a normal more sustainable population, but the rebalancing will be turbulent and the downward side of the curve will very uncomfortable. Just remember we’re paying a price for going beyond the sensible limits over all those years. Payback if you want to call it that.
Why are men discussing this alone without any input from women?
why divide people based on genitals? having a vagina doesn't imply that the quality of the discussion increases
Very stressed animals don't mate.....go figure.
One year of total oil and pharmaceutical profits being distributed equally between the middle and working classes, I wonder how much that would improve people’s lives 🤔
Negative growth can be a good thing. For example, for Serbia, where I live. If we didn't have that for the last thirty years, as well as immigration, we would have 50% unemployment. We wouldn't have anything to eat, like in Africa. Now we even bring people from abroad India, Bangladesh, Nepal to work. Compared to 1989, today's economy and industry is several times weaker. Most, 70% of young couples live with their parents, if we hadn't had a negative increase in the last thirty years, the situation would be even worse.
How is having to bring people in from other countries a good thing?
How wonderful to think we may have population decline. Maybe we can rewild again!!!!!
We won't return to the Stone Age most likely. A medieval level of development is realistic. We will shrink until there are not enough humans to support the mass manufacture and distribution of birth control.
Having a smaller population in itself isn't a bad thing... Look at Scandinavian countries like Norway or Finland, they are doing more than fine despite being scarcely populated.
The problem arises when 50% or more of your demographic pyramid is made up of elders and there are not enough young people that will work, look after them and at the same time raise children...Population decline isn't a curse if the pyramid stays balanced, an extremely aging population is indeed a curse though
That and fewer people to maintain infrastructure built to support a larger population. We will have a collapse of pensions and currencies, but also ever-spreading blight.
From a quick google search In 2023 Sweden Birth rate: 9.5 births per 1,000 people Death rate: 9.0 deaths per 1,000 people. It's replacement rate is estimated to be 1.41 in 2024 when you need 2.1 to keep your population stable. They are nearly at the point where deaths outpace births. Yeah you can have a small population but if its declining your country will run out of its most important resource. This is why Europe has embarked on mass immigration i.e import people because your not making new ones. Care for the elderly, infrastructure mainatenance, taxes, GDP, pensions, workforce, generation of ideas, military, these are just off the top of my head will all be affected. There is no way the pyramid can stay balanced if the bottom of it (children) aren't there.. they will end up with more old people and less young people to take care of them. South Korea's replacement rate is 0.78 so in say about 60yrs they will lose nearly half their population
We just gained 50 million people this year. What population collapse? 😂
How many died in a year? Much more than that?
You should really get your facts right. The world population increases by the population of Germany (over 80 million) every year. This is the number of deaths subtracted from the number of births.
I'm a Gen X'er. We saw the population double. Maybe we will live to see it reduce by 1/3rd. 😂
@niqjaw5009 Births are more than deaths. We gained 10 million this year. Ever heard of worldometers?
@@Zelp789 Only 10 million? You said it was 50 million in your earlier post. You can't even be consistently incorrect. it's a lot, lot more than this. The population of World in 2023 was 8,045,311,447, a 0.88% increase from 2022. The population of World in 2022 was 7,975,105,156. Do the math. Just represents a year on year increase of around 80 million (just as I had stated in my original post!)
Not having children:
Before - selfish, avoids responsibility
Now - considerate, responsible
The world is not getting better. That's the truth. There will always be beauty about it, but it doesnt mean it always come, usually you look for it or even do the hard chase.
Climate change, realization most are only working only for the benefit of the few - errrm no.
The world has gotten spoiled with abundance. It has never been easier to survive.
The Western world says breed elsewhere.
West says stop breeding
Japan, South Korea, SIngapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan are eastern, yet on the bottom 10 list of birth rates.
@@skylinefever Exactly, they're making simplistic remarks. The declines are everywhere, even in the so-called poorest countries where women aren't educated - they are also not having children.
Well, 200 years ago there were just 1 bilion of us, and nothing happend
At the time, the infrastructure was only built to support 1 billion people. Now we infrastructure to support 8 billion people, and there will be fewer to maintain the infrastructure. The future is blight.
Going Around And Around In A Circle To Figure Out Population Problems When This Is Done By Design Is The Definition Of Insanity
we need a new way of living where people have decent homes, schooling, healthcare. no more of the same. there are so many people suffering at all ages too, and with the advent of AI we are also under threat to that.
Standard of living is the highest in all of human history. Economic means is not the cause, although it's the most common initial assumption.
@@michaelrhodes73 1960s, a family of 4 could live well on one wage, mum could stay at home, she had the choice. that is not true today. we are in decline, no middle class as before, and less chance to have a stable lifestyle
@@touche97 Prior to the 1960’s, a family had nothing close to that standard of living and people were still procreating.
@@michaelrhodes73 people were on the up and up, buying their homes, cars, and fridges etc. they weren't rich but they had enough and some for holidays too. women didn't work full time in those days.. they did not have debt either.. best to check the facts.
@@touche97 You are highlighting an ephemeral moment that was atypical from all of human history. Also, women only have to work because they collectively chose to work and the market adapted to the increased labor pool, and price inflation is due to a usury-based monetary system.
Then number of people is enormously overwhelming,, therefore we must every effort to reduce the number gradually, which is required to preserve and sustain the pale blue dot.
What are you talking about? The planet can house and feed trillions of people.
I think 8 billion is too much of humans i understand the business side of things if we look at the future they would have optimal resources to lead a better life .
I think 4 billion is a decent number .
So what country do you live in ,you will have just under half the people you do now and a large number of them will be elderly.
Gonna suck for people when they get old.
I would rather have the world underpopulated then overpopulated if we got to this population from one couple then humanity has no reason to worry about underpopulation.
um, we didn't, that would be incest. The Great Flood Myths (from over 150 countries) derive from a comet impact c 5000 years ago - the Burckle Impact, which caused mega Tsunamis and then a deluge for weeks from the waters forced into the skies from the heat of the impact into the Indian Ocean. Fascinating stuff, new research from c2005+. Some estimates are that 80% of populations were wiped out. Check out @Ozgeology's "The Burckle Crater Mega Tsunami: The Full Documentary" for more - fascinating stuff!
Before modern medicine people in the uk (and elsewhere) had many children but child mortality was very high. The result was that maybe only 1 or 2 reached adulthood. Now that most children survive it makes sense to only have 1 or 2.
1) why is it just 2 blokes talking about it?
Shocking! You assume that they identify as men! Well I never...
Apparently, a "peaceful" incorporation of Barbarians (many are Barbarians!) is impossible.
I've just become a father again at 50 👶. Now I have three children which means I'm doing my part as a European man.
Nobody cares
Nobody cares
Good gemacht !
@olgakessel4101 Danke
Hope you help in the raising of the kids too
Not a moment too soon ;-)
Humanity is more than just the size of the population. much more.
The driver for demographic decline is that the world is transitioning from cheap energy-dense carbon-based fuels to less energy-dense renewable fuels. Energy-dense fuels has allowed the global e
Nope. Population decline was baked in once we had The Pill. It has only been growing due to life extension. When the baby boomers pass, that bump will be history.
All generations have their struggles they have overcome them why would we feel like out progeny could not cut it
In some area of Afghanistan it has also same aspects. In few years Afghanistan also will lose it major population in city sector
I wish I could have another child. But IVF is the only way for me and many people.
All people who arrive in Europe are also inhabitants of the Northern Hemisphere, so it is a North x North immigration, since the countries of West and East Africa, North Africa, the Middle East and South and Southeast Asia are all country in the Northern Hemisphere, they are not countries in the South as the participants in the video imply, since the Southern Hemisphere has only 10% of the world's population, today approximately 800 million people, a population equivalent to that of Europe in an entire Hemisphere, Furthermore, the countries of the Southern Hemisphere are worthy countries that are not senders of immigrants, but rather receivers, including Europeans, some of these countries are Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, they are countries that receive large waves of immigrants from miserable countries in the Northern Hemisphere
Keep them out.
Al final del video el invitado contestó lo que todos sabemos. Que somos muchos en el planeta y que en 2 o 3 generaciones van a existir problemas para acomodar a tanta gente 😮
How will the existence of humanity, the existence of public establishments and the existence of parenthood be able to survive if more couples/women keep choosing not to procreate.
The effects of more couples/women that keep choosing not to procreate could cause the existence of humanity, the existence of public establishments and the existence of parenthood to be at a risk of no longer existing anymore.
The existence of humanity, the existence of public establishments and the existence of parenthood are all very important things for the future because
1. Humans (including women) were created to reproduce in order to keep the human race existing for many years to come.
2. Humans have gotten the chance and ability to create and invent so many unique and useful things ever since the human race began.
3. Public establishments were meant to allow humans to have access to them and were only meant to be operating in an environment where humans are around.
4. Parenthood was meant to be seen and created as something that is beautiful, delightful, rewarding, important, fulfilling and meaningful for a married couple to choose to experience.
Since the existence of public establishments are included, Here are different types of public establishments that could be affected which are
1. How places of business (like jobs, companies, corporations, and manufacturers) could be at a risk of no longer existing anymore if the amount of new people that choose to apply for jobs at businesses, companies, corporations and manufacturers and the amount of new people that buy items from manufacturers keeps decreasing because of more couples/women choosing not to procreate.
2. How places of education (like schools, universities/colleges and tutoring services) could be at a risk of no longer existing anymore if the amount of new people that choose to apply for jobs as teachers/professors by teaching new students at schools and universities/colleges, the amount of new students that choose to go to universities/colleges and the amount of new children that need to go to schools and tutoring services to get an education keeps decreasing because of more couples/women choosing not to procreate.
3. How places of healthcare (like hospitals, medical centres/clinics, dental clinics and pharmacies) could be at a risk of no longer existing anymore if the amount of new people that choose to apply for jobs as doctors/healthcare workers by recovering new patients at hospitals and medical centres/clinics, the amount of new people that choose to apply for jobs as dentists by recovering new patients at dental clinics and the amount of new people that need to get treatment at hospitals, medical centres/clinics, dental clinics and pharmacies keeps decreasing because of more couples/women choosing not to procreate.
4. How places of retail (like malls, shopping centres/districts, stores and e-commerce retailers) could be at a risk of no longer existing anymore if the amount of new people that choose to visit malls and shopping centres/districts, the amount of new people that choose to shop at stores and retailers in-person and from online and the amount of new people that choose to apply for jobs at stores and for e-commerce retailers keeps decreasing because of more couples/women choosing not to procreate.
5. How places of transportation (like airports, subway/LRT stations, and bus stations) could be at a risk of no longer existing anymore if the amount of new people that need or choose to use airports, subway/LRT stations and bus stations to go their destination keeps decreasing because of more couples/women choosing not to procreate.
6. How places of sports (like recreation/leisure/aquatic centres, gyms, fitness centres, parks and playgrounds) could be at a risk of no longer existing anymore if the amount of new people that need to exercise or choose to spend time at recreation/leisure/aquatic centres, gyms, fitness centres and parks and the amount of new children that go to playgrounds keeps decreasing because of more couples/women choosing not to procreate.
7. How places of tourism (like museums, movie theatres/cinemas, entertainment centres/venues, amusement parks/carnivals and water parks) could be at a risk of no longer existing anymore if the amount of new people that choose to go to museums, movie theatres/cinemas, entertainment centres/venues, amusement parks/carnivals and water parks keeps decreasing because of more couples/women choosing not to procreate.
8. How places of hospitality (like restaurants/food establishments, hotels/resorts, and daycares/childcare facilities) could be at a risk of no longer existing anymore if the amount of new people that choose to dine at restaurants/food establishments, the amount of new people that need or choose to stay at hotels/resorts, and the amount of new children that need to go to daycares/childcare facilities keeps decreasing because of more couples/women choosing not to procreate.
Short answer. We will see the spread of blight as there are fewer people to maintain services and infrastructure. This will continue until there are too few people to support a civilization that is able to mass manufacture and distribute birth control. Either manufacture or distribution of birth control has to become impossible before the population decline will cease. In our lifetimes, we will see blight. In the proceeding generations, they will see the unwinding of technology in similar order as they were developed, as the complex chain supplies that make technologies possible disintegrate. It won't be the exact reverse order, but not far off either. We will see computing cease to exist before we see the end of air travel. We will see air travel cease before we see the end of automobiles. We will go backward in population and technology until The Pill is no longer a thing. This will take several generations.
1:30 1990 not 1960
What a propoganda video
It is not so dramatic.
I am 70 I want to work my mind is sharp but employers want young and firm
I am 47. Not even Burger King will hire me in spite of past experience with the chain. Age descrimination is real and illegal on paper, but nobody cares, so it's essentially legal.
It should be said that while places like Bangladesh and India have growing populations for now, they've also fallen below replacement fertility rate. Almost every country outside of Africa has below replacement fertility, whether in Europe, North and South America, East and Southeast Asia, and even much of the Middle East. Most of these countries will start experiencing population decline in the coming decades. Its already started in China, Japan, and Eastern Europe. It will start in Latin America and India soon. Africa will keep growing for much of the century, but not forever. Even many African countries will start declining by the end of the century. This isn't a fight for saving Western Civilization, or the Chinese or Japanese nations. Its a fight for the survival of our entire species.
If we were more mindful of human population control decades ago, we wouldn't be in this situation. We just kept telling people to.breed breed breed without understanding the ramifications of those actions.
@@KS0102thats the natural law we need to breed but dust of qaulity has wrecked you most pepole dont know anything
never ben on a date never met a women who was interested every women has a body count and someone's else kid.
I reject euthanasia
Wow! What a totally prejudicial presentation. Was there one mention of the "Up" sides to fewer humans scraping life off this planet?
We need protection of all humans life from moment of conception.
No