It's good to see the gradual decline of these individual storage bases. I hope to see a summary by the end of the year, to get updated numbers on what their current stockpiles look like. The last updates showed: 6.134 towed artillery, 2.565 self-propelled artillery, 339 MLRS, 8.847 armored vehicles, and 3.657 tanks in total. However, since a number of these pieces are beyond repair, they won't get pulled. So the "actual" countdown to zero is closer than these numbers show. That said, we do need to keep in mind that: 1) Russia still produces new equipment 2) Russia received equipment from other nations 3) these are only the stockpiles, not the pieces already activated and in use
Let's not forget that the percentage of vehicles left in these depots that are simply not salvageable has no doubt grown over time. I'm sure the first ones to be refurbed and shipped out were the easiest ones yo fix. Yes, bottom-of-the-barrel cases can be cannibalized for spare parts, but they won't ever be a serviceable tank again. Almost certainly, the Russians are even closer to 0 left in reserve than glancing at the satellite photos would indicate.
They are using them as replacements for their 2S7, those have pretty much run out, but that doesnt give an arguement to them running out of other types of artillery - it just gives a good scale of potential % of not usable artillery left in storage. Just take a look at the numbers.
It doesnt indicate anything simply the more artillery , the better if you look at thr amount of howitzers used in the battles you would understand. But living in an echo chamber shows your lack of critical thinking. Take care
@@u2beuser714ofc it does, because the thing just shoots once every 5 minutes (no joke) and is a burden for logistics. 170mm shells. Nobody uses them. Russia runs out of artillery, it's even reported they fire less for the last few months, it's simple
The fact they're using old weapons is an indication of how badly things are going for them. Russia is (was) the worlds second largest arms exporter, if they were competent they wouldn't need to be pulling old stock for a country as small as Ukraine. But all of Russia's "advanced invincible" weapons systems are either completely defective, or built in such small quantities they're meaningless. Russia has relied on old weapons since the collapse of the USSR. Burning through that stock leaves a long lasting hole in their ability to replace equipment. Old weapons are better then no weapons don't get me wrong. I mean Ukraine is using 30+ year old American weapons systems we gave them as hand me downs, and they've used them to such great effect Russia is now HAVING to replace it's T-90's with T-55's because they can't build decent tanks without access to the US civilian consumer electronics market. Don't get me wrong they'll evade sanctions and get their hands on used tech, or some new tech even but not in the quantities they'd need for it to matter. Meanwhile the US is selling the good stuff to Poland, Finland and Sweden. I tell you what, there is no better NATO recruiter then Russia. We don't have to expand east, we just have to wait for country's to the east to ask us to let them in. Now Russia has weakened themselves to the point no matter how the war in Ukraine ends they'll be rip for liberation.
@@GeorgeWashingtonLaserMusket - You know George Washington really wanted a commission in the British Army - really REALLY wanted a commission in the British Army, & when he didn't get it, he went traitor? Fun fact.
There is an interview with a NATO inspector that was sent over there during this time(after USSR fell). He was sent to inspect their nuclear arms... It was not good.. Said warheads were rusting, fuel tanks were filled with water, no maintenance was being performed, and personnel had no training and had no idea what they were even doing there... He said it was like this everywhere he went and he suspected that it was like that everywhere else as well..
It would be interesting to know for sure. The USA spends 60 billion dollars on nukes every year and can barely keep the Minutemen flying. Russia spends a fraction as much on what on paper should be a larger force.
@@LeonardTavast really makes you wonder how bad the situation is. About 10 years ago a German magazine wrote a few pages about how much highly radioactive material Russia lost track of and it was quite a lot. Remember this was 10 years ago and only the tip of the iceberg...
@@RedTail1-1 "fuel tanks were filled with water" By "fuel tanks" do you mean the fuel tanks on the missiles themselves or some kind of separate fuel tanks from which fuel can be injected into the missiles? My understanding is that often rockets using liquid fuel aren't kept filled due to how dangerous liquid rocket fuel can be. Rather, they're only filled when they're actually being readied for launch.
@@seneca983 Regardless of them being filled or not, fuel tanks should _never_ contain water. If they do they will rust. Except underground tanks made of concrete, I guess. But even then water is bad for all the armatures.
Most intelligence agencies from other countries have estimated that Russia will be virtually out of old Soviet vehicles by summer/fall of 2025. This video only backs up that point. Excellent analysis as usual, keep up the great work.
They will still have a good stock of activated equipment that has been used to create new forces. So that will last them a while still. But the ability of regenerating anything will be gone soon enough.. Probably explains the all or nothing push of the last couple of months..
That shows that Russia really is losing vehicles faster than they can make them. So if Ukraine can hold out until then, things ought to get much easier.
@@benjaminoechsli1941 we are reaching the end of the attrition phase quickly now. This intensity can't be continued by russia for long anymore, maybe until after winter. Which is a good thing. The question is what putin will do after it..
It sounds as a joke, but saw it to day, video of a Lada on full attack mode. Jesus! Ukraine have emtied the whole Soviet stock, did what NATO was build to do.
It is genuinely incredible that your hobby is acting like the cia. Just analyzing some satellite imagery to relieve to stresses of a 9-5. All the power to ya i enjoy your videos and your peculiar hobbies!
There was something interesting that I noticed about at least 1 of the long abandoned storage bases. In spite of not being paved and surrounded by trees and other vegetation, there are still very large portion that remain bare earth. These areas seemingly don't even have patches of grass. Could this be because of contaminated soil? I live in a cold climate by US standards. I've seen abandoned lots and how they evolve over years of neglect. Even if a gravel lot is long-used, maintained and compacted, if abandoned you'll get sprouting in the 1st year. By year 5, it will be lighy overgrown throughout and even have heavy growth in some areas. After a decade, you'll have sparse tree growth. But I've also seen that around areas where fueling was done, it could stay bare for decades.
Areas that used to house lots of vehicles over long periods of time that were never properly maintained tend to be heavily contaminated with petroleum products (gasoline, diesel, grease, lubricants, etc.) which inhibit the growth of plants. Some, like alfalfa, clover or ryegrass will help with breaking down petroleum in contaminated soils, but even so, the process is slow.
Probably a combination of contamination and them just moving stuff around. What better way to make yourself look busy than to have a bit of a joy ride in an old tank towing a broken down BMP through the yard a few times?
I have friend who lives in Russia I play world of tanks with. I brought up your channel to him, and asked what he thinks. He said Russia has been scrapping those unrepairable bmps, BTRS and tanks. Using the metal to weld onto tanks and vehicles heading to or already inside Ukraine for added armor and turtle tanks. This is just a trust me bro source claims but he also said he's cousin works in a tank factory which he mentioned pre war to me when his cousin got the job in 2019. I trust him. But just mentioning this as a possible reason some of those bmps you mentioned that have been moved or missing. That they might not be repaired or being used but repurposed into armor plating.
While that's plausible in an interesting point, it doesn't matter because the total number of tanks on the storage sites continues to drop... Rapidly. New tanks are not showing up at any storage site. They're losing tanks much faster than they can make them.
@@macmcleod1188 @macmcleod1188 That is the nature of scavanging for parts, you take 2-3 or more vehicles to make one that works. If it is a classic car or museum locomotive you display them, if it is an old russian tank it goes to Ukraine for destruction.
Garage storage is suspect. Snow and mud prevents easy movement during bad weather and the new higher resolution photos show track marks in the soil that don't seem to align with garage door access shown in earlier inspection photos. My assessment? They are scraping the bottom of the barrel and new factory replacements are not arriving as planned.
Saw this week a report of a Russian movie company proudly explaining how they gifted their entire stock of movie tanks to the army: PT-76 tanks, T-55's, a couple of BMP's and even some T-62's! And of course today we saw the very first Lada assault. Yes, you read that correct....
Russia has big issue of Production of there new tank, be trying to compete with the Abrahams they tried to make more modern one, but the Russia Military Industrial Complex is not has big as what the US had so they cant replenish there lost. And trying today to enlarge the facility will take decade, if not more with all the Corruption.
Maximum 'new' production is 200 per year....but even then a significant chunk of those 'new' tanks are T-90A upgraded with new turret to T-90M standard, so not wholly new build, and the numbers of T-90A left for conversion is going down...at that point the numbers of 'new' tanks per year probably drops by 100...
@@dogsnads5634 That makes perfect sense. Upgrades, not new production. Then the question must be asked, how many T-90s of all types were produced and available for battle? Regarding the tank 'bone yards' east and south of the Urals, anything newer that T-72s are unlikely. Back to the T-90s, turret upgrades can be done 'in house' with home grown hardware, unlike the electronics and optics that must be imported. If new technology works, then trained and battle tested tank crews are the next concern. The Russian ranks are shrinking fast.
@brotheralpha It seems you don't know the difference between negotiations and waste of time based on delusions. Why would Russia just leave, especially uninvadable Crimea
@@BrotherAlpha Unfortunately for Ukraine though, that won't happen. Russia continues to gain ground and settlements. The best case scenario for Ukraine at the moment, would be to give up the DPR and LPR, probably Zaphorizia and rebuild their forces. As it sits, Russia is basically advancing the whole length of the front line. Unless Ukraine forces a mandate to their entire male population being forced into the military, they're screwed.
Quantity can win a war, but not when you're relying fully on stock piles of things you can't replace in a timely manner. That's just quantity with a count down. I mean quantity is working for Ukraine, look at all the single shot FPV drones they're using to neutralize the Russian tanks and other APC's.
@@ianeichenlaub5084 And yet? Russia is barely gaining any ground despite its stockpiles being more tumbleweed than material now, Europe might have had smaller surplus stockpiles but long term Russia is about to find out just how much industrial capacity Europe has as Europe continues to expand weapons production much faster than Russia, and unlike Russia Europe can sustain the production indefinitely.
it's painful to think of how reviled Gorbachev is in russia. It seems like no sincere effort to improve the lives of Russians today will go unpunished. it's all about the ego of the men at top
this is true especially since the west only appeared to help when asked in the 90s. Gorbachev trusted the west and was tricked. we are paying the price for that today.
I have relatives in russia and what i can Tell you is that 80% of russians are completly brainwashed from the Last 10 years of putinism. Most of them believe Putins lies.
@@-BuddyGuy lmao so true. I'd like to see a smidge of both. Work my ass off but can't afford a house. Complain about the massive influx of migrants driving up house prices and I'll be arrested for "hate speech". Wealth and freedom. Sure.
I just imagined civil car made of BMP with no wepons, being legal when it comes to gases emission and other kinds of polutions, with more windows, being comfortable, not too much heavy.
Why would it fill? They ain't manufacturing Soviet era tanks anymore. They are manufacturing modern tanks. The ones which numbers gradually increased over the 3 years.
@@0ompaLoompaThey're cool inverting old Soviet tanks into "modern" ones. But the T72, which is the base tank, is becoming harder to find in decent condition so they aren't making many of them.
Literally derelict. They probably just use the hulls and turret castings but everything else is entirely new production. Rest of the components is most likely not reusable at all. It's better to start with a hull than having to manufacture it new entirely, right?
@@anderoo9260 Its actually ingenious. As you gear up for war to mass produce tanks you pull hulls out of storage and outfit them with new kits. This gives your production lines experience and time to grow. By the time you run out of hulls your factories have scaled up and are firing on all engines producing new tanks with supply lines and crews that were able to learn an adapt on stockpiled hulls. Supposedly Russia only builds 500 new tanks a year. It could be triple that.
@@Deno2100 You mean after a thousand days of working double shifts with extra overtime the crew is exhausted, the machines worn and the supplies of spare parts long gone, all the able bodied men either fled the country, got drafted or got work in a vital place and there is no way to upscale further. The Russians have one tank factory: Uralvagonzavod, and one BMP factory: Uraltransmash. They have not expanded, so any extra production line is inside the original building 500 new tanks each year? Less. About 30 a month was doable, with 200 each month leaving the factory due to 100 old tanks entering it to be refurbished along with 70 damaged ones to be repaired. If you see reports of many T-90M's being made it's because all the T-90A's have vanished without being destroyed. Look it up. They can't tripple anything besides the cost of the war for all involved. Russia is paying over 2500 Euros a month for a new soldier, and the factories have to offer the same. Insane for low qualified jobs in Russia, so why offer that much if they have millions waiting to be put to work in those factories?
@@Deno2100Not ingenious, it’s the strategy that literally every single nation with a large standing military has used ever. Also “could be triple that” is kinda funny. Like Russia is just holding back industrial capacity just for fun.
Let it be remembered that the USSR didn't just fall. The western WARPACT nations and nations conquered by Russia *fled* , declared independence and, in Poland's case, literally blackmailed their way into NATO. Some of them broke themselves out of the USSR before the union officially broke up.
By now all the armored vehicles that are still left must be the extreme bottom of the barrel. So bad they probably need to be totally stripped and rebuilt. It may well be cheaper and faster to build new from scratch.
Not exactly better to start with nothing. I mean this way you still start with a full hull and a turret casting. Everything else is probably newly fabricated. including engines etc. Maybe they use the blocks but nothing else. Still they don't have to build the hulls from scratch.
@@anderoo9260 Depends on the age of the chassis. Not much point having a T55 chassis if the tooling doesn't exist to make the turrets anymore and developing/making the tooling doesn't make sense for the numbers involved (billions of rubles just to make a few hundred turrets). That can apply to any chassis. Same for engines & engine mounts.
@@anderoo9260 I'm not a manufacturing expert, but I do know that rebuilding an old car is often slower, more expensive and takes more skill than just building a complete new one. And that's assuming you can reuse the old car body. Maybe the same applies for APC's.
@@marcusmoonstein242 Yes, but rebuilding a tank on a production line is vastly different than rebuilding a car or even a tank in a shed. They do have jigs for t72s, they do not want to preserve most components like a resto work does. Bolt seized? Oxy cut it. Shit welded on? Oxy cut it. Stripping hulls on an industrial scale does have it's merits. Of course comes with more work as the vehicles condition worsens, but they still do not need the specialized raw materials for hull manufacture.
Most of the tanks and BMPs stored there are now standing in Ukraine as wrecks waiting to be melted down. Ukraine will be a big exporter of steel for a few years. That said, those photos of Russian tanks remind me of my first time visiting a Soviet army base in Potsdam near Berlin. The SU had collapsed, the Russians were winding up their bases in Eastern Germany and I was commissioned to see what to do with the buildings left behind. These were in such bad condition, that 90% them them were condemned. It most cases the Russians had stripped them of everything: heating, water pipes, toilets, window frames and even wall paper.
Was that the northern part of Potsdam? I know that area and I know it was a Red Army base but it’s hard to get any more information on what structures remain from that time or how it looked like in the early 90s.
"Ukraine will be a big exporter of steel for a few years." Unlikely since Russia controls most of Ukraine's Heavy industry in the south (Donbas region). Any scrap Steel on the Ukrainian will probably end up in Poland, or other eastern Europe nations, and recycled. I believe at this point all of Ukraine's Steel mills are out of commission from bombing, or lack of coal to operate.
@@Zackzickel Yes, it was in the northern part of the city. The campus of a university is there now, FHP, University of applied science, Potsdam. They've constructed a lot of new buildings there but also incorporated some of the buildings of the former Soviet barracks into the campus. The whole place is hardly recognisable from its early usage. To find it you just need to enter "Kiepenheuerallee" in Google maps.
@@guytech7310 The way things are going, the Donbass will most likely have return back into Ukrainian hands in the next 12 to 24 months. The west won't allow any other solution.
I don't know whether to be sad that soon there'll be nothing left in storage to count, so no more of these updates, or happy that soon there'll be nothing left in storage!
I took that one weird turn down the internet path where is leads to an echo chamber of "Russia is running out of" everything. I was here to 2021. See you guys in 3 years when Russia is running out of everything all over again.
Cool to hear that that means that both sides are using and kissing more than thy used so Russia and Ukraine losses of tanks are more than their visible losses
The Soviet Union has been collecting these machines for decades - Russia has no chance of rebuilding these equipment stores. The conflict in Ukraine has permanently weakened Russia militarily.
@@Howardlifts we have satellite imagery showing Russia burning through the Soviet inherited armor and artillery, and its at a faster rate than new production. Russia's military power came from its size and mass in men and equipment. Even if they "win" they are massively weaker than they started and will take decades of production to get back to those numbers. Not that they can use them because they have a hard time supplying the essentials to their current force, like uniforms, food and first aid kits.
@relicthominide5546 By yourself if you want. Just check out any number of site's that publish foto and video evidence to count them if you want.... Although I'm adding citation marks since I guess nobody can know for sure.
Your expertise in counting really gives the background (90s inspections) a lot more depth. I'm not joking, I really appreciate, but it is a funny sentence to say.
When you were talking about the 1992 inspection you did not mention Canadians yet in a photo showing the Russians and Americans toasting one another there is a Canadian flag on the table. That means there was a Canadian contingent there as well as American.
I didn't even know the Canadians were in on those arms reduction treaties, that being said, I'd definitely like to see a video telling the story of the inspectors from all the participating countries.. 👍
That much? I heard it was less... Several BMP's are included in that number, and some PT-76 light tanks. Either way, they scraped through the bottom of the barrel for their last hail mary
When I was in high school I remember seeing these tanks available for import into the US for less then $20k; when you read into it you found out it was a big gamble as they would always try and push the most run down ones they had first on the civilian international market. I did seriously consider pulling the trigger just because they were so inexpensive and technically they ran. I mostly was looking at the T-55 and early cold war tanks because they were so ancient nobody would ever use them in a war, I mean surely. Here we are nearly fifteen years later and Russia is making a mad dash trying to get these PoS's ready for battle and I'm just blown away. Imagine if the US had run out of Abraham's in Afghanistan, and lacked anything more modern then a Sherman because we burned through so much stock and lacked the ability to replace our equipment. Then take into account the fact we held Afghanistan for twice as long as the USSR did, FROM AROUND THE OTHER SIDE OF THE WORLD. Russia and Ukraine are right next door. Russia has revealed it's self to be a vodka soaked paper tiger and the funny thing about wet paper is it's even weaker, and vodka make's it even more flammable. Hence why the house of cards is burning down as it collapses.
You seem to think this war is Afghanistan. This is not afghanistan we’re you call in a strike on some dude taking pot shots from 600 yards out and never saw a MBT besides your own abrams. This is a near peer conflict were armor gets shredded by weapons handed out at the squad level.
“Vodka soaked paper tiger” mannnnn the world is going to be shocked in January. Echochambers are going to be shattered worse than the U.S. elections did.
The first vehicles pulled out are those under proper cover. Vehicles from the inside are the first wave, while the second wave are outside stored vehicles towed inside for repair and maintenance.
@@danielconquer909 still almost 80% of their territory LMFAO This will go down as one of the most embarrassing wars any major power has ever fought no doubt
yet they are doing better than ever on the battlefield. Maybe they just put all of these tanks into service as they increased their army size drastically.
Nonsense. T-14s are using their constantly rotating turrets to hover over undisclosed location(s) in Siberia. That's how they evade satellites - they're never on the ground to be counted.
You mean the Armata's? Russia only has a dozen or so of these tanks and they are only used for the yearly victory parade in Moscow. Also these tanks malfunction a lot because they are too high tech one of then even broke down during one of these parades a couple of years ago.
Isn't it some of the finest OSint videos to inform & interpret folks?? This is definitely a work beyond me, like, I like to think I'm this conscientious!
With the worst vehicles remaining, there's like to be a lot of cannibalisation and consolidation going on. If 20 vehicles disappear, it's entirely possible that they've assembled, say, 15 working ones out of those 20. Similarly, the hulls left may already have had bits torn out to fix ones that were being shipped out.
Not likely. You can't just "assemble" 15 working engines or tank barrels out of 20 that have corroded. And if the turret is gone or left open -vehicle is probably already stripped of useful parts and/or rusted out.
@@d3nza482 Maybe he talks about those already taken out of storage, and while not mentioning it, he probably did not mean they would end with 15 perfect vehicles without adding additional new parts. Either way, it's really, really bad for Russia
I would like to see a quarterly overview of Russia status in tanks, artillery ifvs etc. it would be good to have an estimate on how much longer Russia can go at it’s current burn rate.
@@nic.h I also doubt the linearity of the regression. When you get near the bottom of the barrel, or in this case, the remaining supply...a much greater percentage of the fleets will be units which were passed over for refit because of massive damage or parts shortages. Essentially units which were borderline for scrapping, but might have been left in inventory to serve as parts donors for more viable units. I expect the rundown to zero units suitable for refit will now begin to hasten quite dramatically.
@4ager505 my guess would be it might actually slow down. As you say bottom of the barrel, so it take more effort to get something usable, so repair time increases. It's either that or they just scrap them for turtle tank plating and any parts they can salvage.
@@nic.h What do you count at all, have you ever thought that during a war, equipment should be at the front, not at long-term storage bases? If something is gone from the storage base, it means that it is being used, not that it is lost.
They have said on a few occasions that the number will never functionally be zero. There are always going to be tanks and APCs available. They also still have large stores of artillery apparently.
@@JSF1571 for now, yes. We will have to wait to see how willing Trump is to reward Putin for starting a war before we can tell who will control the land after that
Some of the oldest BMP’ stored outside in harsh conditions for decades would have bern rust buckets. Pulled off for the odd spares such as drive shafts, gear boxes, differentials, etc, but the rest just melted down.
I was thinking about why they aren't consolidating to fewer bases, but then I realized that if most of the remaining vehicles don't run it's probably not practical to consolidate to fewer bases.
I doubt that many of these vehicles run. They are almost certainly towed and pushed to the trains where they are shipped to rebuild facilities. Even vehicles with a sized drivetrain can be moved with enough equipment and determination. No one has a motivation to do a good job of cleaning up the depots. It's a far safer job than hoping for a 'rear area support only' role at the front.
@@theorenhobart Money not gold. You know USD, Euro, Yen, Yuan, etc. Gold can be used to exchange for money but only when you have a buyer and Russia has to take a loss. Also I assume you mean the gold they've been stealing for Africa using Wagner?
Well, considering that apparently even the banks in their bestest buddy China are hesitant to give them funding, it's a genuine question. The ruble is heading for stagflation, BRICS summits are asking attendees to bring US dollars... This Jenga tower looks wobbly.
It was a threat. A MIRV is accurate enough for a "physics package" as a near miss still counts as a hit, but a conventional or kinetic payload is gonna miss the target by hundreds of feet.
At the moment Russia is a bit low on resources, but come January 20, they might have a LOT extra. There are a lot of people shouting in the comments that America should keep all their suprlus Abrams and Bradleys and keep paying the storage, guarding and maintenance cost (to be honest they never mention the cost part but sadly it will not go away...) and should Ukraine refuse to surrender even with all aid cut push might come to shove....
@@sjonnieplayfull5859 America does not want to continue aiding Ukraine against Russia because it pushes them further towards China. Britain maintains it's isolation by preventing unification of continental Europe. US maintains it's isolation by preventing unification of Eurasia. Russian resources can be utilized either with European or Chinese economy. The war in Ukraine has broken up Europe and Russia, but its pushing them towards China.
What do you guys think of this: I suspect Trump will be much harder on Putin than expected. His ego is what drives him, completely. He wants to look strong and good on an international stage and knows his supporters will always support him. I think he will try negotiating, but it will go down because Putin is "winning" and would want harsh terms, which Ukraine obviously can't accept. If Trump forces Ukraine to those terrible terms, he will be seen as an extremely weak Putin bootlicker. He can't do that either. But what he can do is pump, maybe in secret with companies like Slovakia under Fico, more stuff into Ukraine to win it for them. Or just completely switch sides, would not be the first time. What do you think? Some might call me crazy but I think this is really highly likely.
Obviously, Trump/USA has no way of forcing Ukraine to any terms, neither Ukraine nor Russia can accept the demands of the other so Trump will either have to appear weak or side with one of them. Trump doesn't have enough support to actually side with Russia even if he wanted to, so the math is pretty easy. If you believe Trump will accept looking like a weak and incompetent person then you might think he will do nothing, if you think Trump is more concerned about his appearance and ego then he will double down on aid to Ukraine and say he is doing it because Europe is going to pay for everything USA sends 😂
I think there is a better chance of that than most people give credit for. I very much doubt that Trump would have so heavily constrained Ukraine due to a fear of escalation. The biggest risk as I see it, is that I think 2nd term Trump might be more afraid of looking like a warmonger than of looking weak. He and his supporters spend way too much time talking about how no new wars started under his watch, and too little time talking about the fact that it was Trump's 1st term heavy handed foreign policy that kept a lid on things. Way too many people within his orbit have criticized the Biden administration's loosening of restrictions for my comfort, when I had figured that would have been Trump's first move. Trump is pretty creative in finding leverage points, so hopefully he has something up his sleeve. I just wish it was a bit more clear that he understood the national interest in preventing geopolitical rivals from simply taking whatever territory that they want.
The most recent poll I've seen says that some, what, 80% of Americans support us helping Ukraine out? As you said, Trump is fueled by his ego, so I could absolutely see him rotating to help them win if he knew it would make him look good to the populace.
Even more so, I suspect these days Putin can provide less to Trump and can scare him less as well. Nothing seems to stick on the dude. With how transactional Trump is, if Zelenskyy comes up and says Trump can build a Trump tower in downtown Kiev and a Trump golfcourse on the black sea, Trump my take his offer. His followers are so easy to forget and would pivot without much fuss if their leader starts supporting Ukraine. And then Trump can falsely claim he is the savior of Europe or something and the bestest bigly president ever.
It's not only about what actions are theoretically possible but also about the international reaction to those actions. Do you know what would happen if Russia would have to resort to using intercontinental missiles for a war that is not just on the same continent, but a direct neighbor? Imagine I'd claim to be a great fighter, start a fight with a significantly smaller person, and then feel the need to pull out a gun. Its a sign of desperation and weakness. Russia probably COULD win the war pretty quickly if they would throw everything they had at it, but such actions have severe consequences. You loose respect, you loose standing, you loose credibility.
It's not only about what actions are theoretically possible but also about the international reaction to those actions. Do you know what would happen if Russia would have to resort to using intercontinental missiles for a war that is not just on the same continent, but a direct neighbor? Imagine I'd claim to be a great fighter, start a fight with a significantly smaller person, and then feel the need to pull out a gun. Its a sign of desperation and weakness. Russia probably COULD win the war pretty quickly if they would throw everything they had at it, but such actions have severe consequences. You loose respect, you loose standing, you loose credibility, AND you loose your ICBMs. No country wants to see ICBMs being used. ICBMs are the basis for the mutual assured destruction protocol. It's not a regular military strategy, it's a borderline suicidal act of desperation.
Yes and would you like to know why? Russia didn't build their tanks, Ukraine and Poland did, along with Eastern Germany. People often get confused about Russia and they think it's actually been at some point capable of producing decent weapons in meaningful numbers but that's never been true. During WWI they had continuous shortages for everything and lost the war ducking out long before anyone else. Then when they started WWII with the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and their collaborated invasion of Poland and Germany betrayed them we had to send: 400,000 jeeps & trucks 14,000 airplanes 8,000 tractors 13,000 tanks 1.5 million blankets 15 million pairs of army boots 107,000 tons of cotton 2.7 million tons of petrol products 4.5 million tons of food Most of which was never paid for, and this equipment is what they used after the war to invade Europe and hold it long enough to use East Germany, Poland, Ukraine, Romania, etc who actually had industrialized. Much of their equipment was stolen and brought back to Russia but the expertise in these countries meant Russia relied on them and by the time the USSR collapsed most of Russia's Jet engines were built in Ukraine, computers in east germany, etc. I don't know the specifics off the top of my head but look into it. that's why Ukraine is so quickly rearming, because they were a core component in the USSR's industrial military complex. Russia has people and raw resources, that's they're blessing and curse. They've never managed to actually be an industrial power like Japan, the US, Germany, China. Russia is the international gas station you buy a bag of fertilizer at. You might buy their weapons back when they had enough to export but they can't spare anything anymore and that means the economy is eating it's self to stay afloat. Russia has no future.
Russia - making Covert Cabal's job easier by the week.
Ukraine
@@davidoldham1946 Let's say it's a team effort.
Soon they might be able to count on their hands
At some point he won't have a job to do
@@miles67733
- Soon they might be able to count on their hands.
- You mean on fingers?
- No.
It is amazing that Russia has consumed 45 years of Soviet military hardware in the past three years.
Just goes to show how absurd industrial scale warfare is. No wonder the first people to experience it were so deeply affected.
Not a complete explanation…. Age and Corruption :). Sold off the fancy stuff on the tanks…
@@arthursdelta Corruption in Ruzzia ? How can you say such a thing 😂😂
🌻🌻🌻🇺🇦
That stuff rotted for decades first.
...and that they did so without any of it leaving what was the Soviet Union.
It's good to see the gradual decline of these individual storage bases. I hope to see a summary by the end of the year, to get updated numbers on what their current stockpiles look like. The last updates showed: 6.134 towed artillery, 2.565 self-propelled artillery, 339 MLRS, 8.847 armored vehicles, and 3.657 tanks in total. However, since a number of these pieces are beyond repair, they won't get pulled. So the "actual" countdown to zero is closer than these numbers show.
That said, we do need to keep in mind that:
1) Russia still produces new equipment
2) Russia received equipment from other nations
3) these are only the stockpiles, not the pieces already activated and in use
And even if a vehicle itself is unserviceable it still can be cannibalized for parts to repair functional units
And what about vehicles damage which are being reparating'...
@@rhodium1096 those would be considered "in the field", as opposed to in the stockpiles.
Let's not forget that the percentage of vehicles left in these depots that are simply not salvageable has no doubt grown over time. I'm sure the first ones to be refurbed and shipped out were the easiest ones yo fix. Yes, bottom-of-the-barrel cases can be cannibalized for spare parts, but they won't ever be a serviceable tank again. Almost certainly, the Russians are even closer to 0 left in reserve than glancing at the satellite photos would indicate.
true true but russia cant kept up with its losses unless they just use infantry attacks
I think the fact that Russia is now using North Korean howitzers is a good indication for how their reserves are doing.
Yet they still outgun Ukraine. The amount of western artillery being sent is a joke compared to what’s actually being used
They are using them as replacements for their 2S7, those have pretty much run out, but that doesnt give an arguement to them running out of other types of artillery - it just gives a good scale of potential % of not usable artillery left in storage. Just take a look at the numbers.
It doesnt indicate anything simply the more artillery , the better if you look at thr amount of howitzers used in the battles you would understand. But living in an echo chamber shows your lack of critical thinking. Take care
@@u2beuser714 you're so smart, you should be on 't telly...
@@u2beuser714ofc it does, because the thing just shoots once every 5 minutes (no joke) and is a burden for logistics. 170mm shells. Nobody uses them.
Russia runs out of artillery, it's even reported they fire less for the last few months, it's simple
I bet some losers don't even have a favorite Russian tank storage base.
lol great comment 😂
East Ukraine*
😂😂
@@GeorgeWashingtonLaserMusket Chinese Vassal State*
They are all so good how could I pick my favorite..
FSB hates this channel xD
FSB, the Russian f00tlickers, cope boys, fan boys and Ivan themselves hate this channel.
😂
Rip. Uturd deleted my comment.
I'm sure the CIA has far better information/satellites.
Nah this channel is a joke.. satellites take photos but how they are altered before showing up online is up to speculation. Digital age
As I heard on the 'news' yesterday - "Old weapons are better than no weapons".
You mean the 5000 nonexistent Abrams that are still in storage? 😂 Dude Russia has lost.
The fact they're using old weapons is an indication of how badly things are going for them. Russia is (was) the worlds second largest arms exporter, if they were competent they wouldn't need to be pulling old stock for a country as small as Ukraine. But all of Russia's "advanced invincible" weapons systems are either completely defective, or built in such small quantities they're meaningless. Russia has relied on old weapons since the collapse of the USSR. Burning through that stock leaves a long lasting hole in their ability to replace equipment.
Old weapons are better then no weapons don't get me wrong. I mean Ukraine is using 30+ year old American weapons systems we gave them as hand me downs, and they've used them to such great effect Russia is now HAVING to replace it's T-90's with T-55's because they can't build decent tanks without access to the US civilian consumer electronics market. Don't get me wrong they'll evade sanctions and get their hands on used tech, or some new tech even but not in the quantities they'd need for it to matter.
Meanwhile the US is selling the good stuff to Poland, Finland and Sweden. I tell you what, there is no better NATO recruiter then Russia. We don't have to expand east, we just have to wait for country's to the east to ask us to let them in. Now Russia has weakened themselves to the point no matter how the war in Ukraine ends they'll be rip for liberation.
@@GeorgeWashingtonLaserMusket - You know George Washington really wanted a commission in the British Army - really REALLY wanted a commission in the British Army, & when he didn't get it, he went traitor? Fun fact.
Last I checked the general response is, MOAR, please....
@@sebastianforbes1 That it is better than the Soviet/Russian stuff and they need more?
There is an interview with a NATO inspector that was sent over there during this time(after USSR fell). He was sent to inspect their nuclear arms... It was not good.. Said warheads were rusting, fuel tanks were filled with water, no maintenance was being performed, and personnel had no training and had no idea what they were even doing there... He said it was like this everywhere he went and he suspected that it was like that everywhere else as well..
The context is CC talks about NATO inspecting this base after the fall of the USSR in this video.
It would be interesting to know for sure. The USA spends 60 billion dollars on nukes every year and can barely keep the Minutemen flying. Russia spends a fraction as much on what on paper should be a larger force.
@@LeonardTavast really makes you wonder how bad the situation is. About 10 years ago a German magazine wrote a few pages about how much highly radioactive material Russia lost track of and it was quite a lot. Remember this was 10 years ago and only the tip of the iceberg...
@@RedTail1-1 "fuel tanks were filled with water"
By "fuel tanks" do you mean the fuel tanks on the missiles themselves or some kind of separate fuel tanks from which fuel can be injected into the missiles? My understanding is that often rockets using liquid fuel aren't kept filled due to how dangerous liquid rocket fuel can be. Rather, they're only filled when they're actually being readied for launch.
@@seneca983 Regardless of them being filled or not, fuel tanks should _never_ contain water. If they do they will rust.
Except underground tanks made of concrete, I guess. But even then water is bad for all the armatures.
Most intelligence agencies from other countries have estimated that Russia will be virtually out of old Soviet vehicles by summer/fall of 2025. This video only backs up that point. Excellent analysis as usual, keep up the great work.
Shit 2025 felt so far away.
@@Apjooz Summer and fall of 2025 is only about 8-9 months away.
They will still have a good stock of activated equipment that has been used to create new forces. So that will last them a while still. But the ability of regenerating anything will be gone soon enough..
Probably explains the all or nothing push of the last couple of months..
That shows that Russia really is losing vehicles faster than they can make them. So if Ukraine can hold out until then, things ought to get much easier.
@@benjaminoechsli1941 we are reaching the end of the attrition phase quickly now. This intensity can't be continued by russia for long anymore, maybe until after winter. Which is a good thing.
The question is what putin will do after it..
This would explain the sudden rise in lada assaults on the front line.
It sounds as a joke, but saw it to day, video of a Lada on full attack mode. Jesus! Ukraine have emtied the whole Soviet stock, did what NATO was build to do.
Ruzkie frontline Lada assults, was not on my bingo card at the start of this SMO😂
Scooters 2024, rollerskates 2025.
Yeah Lada attacks don’t have a good track record
@@larswhitt1549 that's not what NATO was formed for, and Ukraine has held on thanks to an unofficial worldwide coalition, something akin to NATO
It is genuinely incredible that your hobby is acting like the cia. Just analyzing some satellite imagery to relieve to stresses of a 9-5. All the power to ya i enjoy your videos and your peculiar hobbies!
There was something interesting that I noticed about at least 1 of the long abandoned storage bases. In spite of not being paved and surrounded by trees and other vegetation, there are still very large portion that remain bare earth. These areas seemingly don't even have patches of grass. Could this be because of contaminated soil?
I live in a cold climate by US standards. I've seen abandoned lots and how they evolve over years of neglect. Even if a gravel lot is long-used, maintained and compacted, if abandoned you'll get sprouting in the 1st year. By year 5, it will be lighy overgrown throughout and even have heavy growth in some areas. After a decade, you'll have sparse tree growth. But I've also seen that around areas where fueling was done, it could stay bare for decades.
From the ones I visited, most had concrete slabs around the storage areas.
Oil , hydraulic fluid and excessive iron could do that.
Areas that used to house lots of vehicles over long periods of time that were never properly maintained tend to be heavily contaminated with petroleum products (gasoline, diesel, grease, lubricants, etc.) which inhibit the growth of plants. Some, like alfalfa, clover or ryegrass will help with breaking down petroleum in contaminated soils, but even so, the process is slow.
Probably a combination of contamination and them just moving stuff around. What better way to make yourself look busy than to have a bit of a joy ride in an old tank towing a broken down BMP through the yard a few times?
Using the term 'interesting' quite loosely there.
Thanks!
Why
I have friend who lives in Russia I play world of tanks with. I brought up your channel to him, and asked what he thinks. He said Russia has been scrapping those unrepairable bmps, BTRS and tanks. Using the metal to weld onto tanks and vehicles heading to or already inside Ukraine for added armor and turtle tanks. This is just a trust me bro source claims but he also said he's cousin works in a tank factory which he mentioned pre war to me when his cousin got the job in 2019. I trust him. But just mentioning this as a possible reason some of those bmps you mentioned that have been moved or missing. That they might not be repaired or being used but repurposed into armor plating.
Who cares
@@spurgearyou
While that's plausible in an interesting point, it doesn't matter because the total number of tanks on the storage sites continues to drop... Rapidly.
New tanks are not showing up at any storage site.
They're losing tanks much faster than they can make them.
@@macmcleod1188 @macmcleod1188 That is the nature of scavanging for parts, you take 2-3 or more vehicles to make one that works. If it is a classic car or museum locomotive you display them, if it is an old russian tank it goes to Ukraine for destruction.
I have not seen any of the 'turtle tanks' coming directly from the factory. Those seem to be hobby shop 'improvements' applied by units at the front.
Garage storage is suspect. Snow and mud prevents easy movement during bad weather and the new higher resolution photos show track marks in the soil that don't seem to align with garage door access shown in earlier inspection photos. My assessment? They are scraping the bottom of the barrel and new factory replacements are not arriving as planned.
Saw this week a report of a Russian movie company proudly explaining how they gifted their entire stock of movie tanks to the army: PT-76 tanks, T-55's, a couple of BMP's and even some T-62's! And of course today we saw the very first Lada assault. Yes, you read that correct....
Russia has big issue of Production of there new tank, be trying to compete with the Abrahams they tried to make more modern one, but the Russia Military Industrial Complex is not has big as what the US had so they cant replenish there lost. And trying today to enlarge the facility will take decade, if not more with all the Corruption.
@@sjonnieplayfull5859 I'm mostly impressed that a movie company had functional tanks. But i reckon that's all for the sake of authenticity.
Maximum 'new' production is 200 per year....but even then a significant chunk of those 'new' tanks are T-90A upgraded with new turret to T-90M standard, so not wholly new build, and the numbers of T-90A left for conversion is going down...at that point the numbers of 'new' tanks per year probably drops by 100...
@@dogsnads5634 That makes perfect sense. Upgrades, not new production. Then the question must be asked, how many T-90s of all types were produced and available for battle? Regarding the tank 'bone yards' east and south of the Urals, anything newer that T-72s are unlikely. Back to the T-90s, turret upgrades can be done 'in house' with home grown hardware, unlike the electronics and optics that must be imported. If new technology works, then trained and battle tested tank crews are the next concern. The Russian ranks are shrinking fast.
Now it is the worst time for negotiations.
I don't know about that. I would be okay with negotiations if Ukraine said, "Get the fuck out of Ukraine, including Crimea."
@@BrotherAlpha Ukraine has been saying that. If you want negotiations Russia needs to make a show of good faith and return to their land.
@brotheralpha It seems you don't know the difference between negotiations and waste of time based on delusions. Why would Russia just leave, especially uninvadable Crimea
@@GeorgeWashingtonLaserMusket that won't happen. History shows otherwise.
@@BrotherAlpha Unfortunately for Ukraine though, that won't happen.
Russia continues to gain ground and settlements.
The best case scenario for Ukraine at the moment, would be to give up the DPR and LPR, probably Zaphorizia and rebuild their forces. As it sits, Russia is basically advancing the whole length of the front line.
Unless Ukraine forces a mandate to their entire male population being forced into the military, they're screwed.
Now this is a real insight into the so called "quantity vs quality", Russia simply lacks both
Quantity can win a war, but not when you're relying fully on stock piles of things you can't replace in a timely manner. That's just quantity with a count down.
I mean quantity is working for Ukraine, look at all the single shot FPV drones they're using to neutralize the Russian tanks and other APC's.
I would not say Russia lacked quantity. That it takes years of intense fighting to bring the old stockpiles this low speaks for itself.
And yet...
@@ianeichenlaub5084 And yet?
Russia is barely gaining any ground despite its stockpiles being more tumbleweed than material now,
Europe might have had smaller surplus stockpiles but long term Russia is about to find out just how much industrial capacity Europe has as Europe continues to expand weapons production much faster than Russia, and unlike Russia Europe can sustain the production indefinitely.
@@freedomfighter22222and yet Ukraine will soon back off to Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Dniepro line because they are no longer capable of defending Donbass
it's painful to think of how reviled Gorbachev is in russia. It seems like no sincere effort to improve the lives of Russians today will go unpunished. it's all about the ego of the men at top
this is true especially since the west only appeared to help when asked in the 90s. Gorbachev trusted the west and was tricked. we are paying the price for that today.
I have relatives in russia and what i can Tell you is that 80% of russians are completly brainwashed from the Last 10 years of putinism. Most of them believe Putins lies.
"Improving the lives of Russians"? They don't seem all too keen on the western version of "improvement". No idea why that would be...
@@deancushen5822 Wealth and freedom aren't for everyone.
@@-BuddyGuy lmao so true. I'd like to see a smidge of both. Work my ass off but can't afford a house. Complain about the massive influx of migrants driving up house prices and I'll be arrested for "hate speech". Wealth and freedom. Sure.
Love your videos, they are really something special, as nobody else is doing this in such a good quality
woah this coping is still going ??
ua-cam.com/video/TzgPJeYZaOU/v-deo.htmlsi=YwB4WemPBCbXQr7U
"I would have gotten away with it to if it werent for you meddling kids" - putin to scooby doo crew
I just imagined civil car made of BMP with no wepons, being legal when it comes to gases emission and other kinds of polutions, with more windows, being comfortable, not too much heavy.
Putin is currently winning the war continuing in his favor even more
The more interesting thing is that it might never be filled again…
В рф закрываются тюрьмы, нет людей 😂
Why would it fill? They ain't manufacturing Soviet era tanks anymore. They are manufacturing modern tanks. The ones which numbers gradually increased over the 3 years.
@@0ompaLoompaThey're cool inverting old Soviet tanks into "modern" ones. But the T72, which is the base tank, is becoming harder to find in decent condition so they aren't making many of them.
If they were canabalising tanks before and now have shipped almost everything out some must have left almost derelict.
Literally derelict. They probably just use the hulls and turret castings but everything else is entirely new production. Rest of the components is most likely not reusable at all.
It's better to start with a hull than having to manufacture it new entirely, right?
@@anderoo9260 Its actually ingenious. As you gear up for war to mass produce tanks you pull hulls out of storage and outfit them with new kits. This gives your production lines experience and time to grow. By the time you run out of hulls your factories have scaled up and are firing on all engines producing new tanks with supply lines and crews that were able to learn an adapt on stockpiled hulls. Supposedly Russia only builds 500 new tanks a year. It could be triple that.
@@Deno2100 You mean after a thousand days of working double shifts with extra overtime the crew is exhausted, the machines worn and the supplies of spare parts long gone, all the able bodied men either fled the country, got drafted or got work in a vital place and there is no way to upscale further. The Russians have one tank factory: Uralvagonzavod, and one BMP factory: Uraltransmash. They have not expanded, so any extra production line is inside the original building
500 new tanks each year? Less. About 30 a month was doable, with 200 each month leaving the factory due to 100 old tanks entering it to be refurbished along with 70 damaged ones to be repaired. If you see reports of many T-90M's being made it's because all the T-90A's have vanished without being destroyed. Look it up.
They can't tripple anything besides the cost of the war for all involved. Russia is paying over 2500 Euros a month for a new soldier, and the factories have to offer the same. Insane for low qualified jobs in Russia, so why offer that much if they have millions waiting to be put to work in those factories?
@@Deno2100Not ingenious, it’s the strategy that literally every single nation with a large standing military has used ever.
Also “could be triple that” is kinda funny. Like Russia is just holding back industrial capacity just for fun.
Let it be remembered that the USSR didn't just fall. The western WARPACT nations and nations conquered by Russia *fled* , declared independence and, in Poland's case, literally blackmailed their way into NATO.
Some of them broke themselves out of the USSR before the union officially broke up.
They were Couped, and Usa did everything they could to create insurgencies and idependence movements to create caos.
Except Poland and other Eastern European countries like DDR (East Germany) were never incorporated in the USSR.
@@57thorns Who said they were?
They call that negotiation, someting russians don´t know or want to do. All they know is idiotic violence and psychopatic thinking.
"in Poland's case, literally blackmailed their way into NATO. "
how could they blackmail themselves into NATO?
By now all the armored vehicles that are still left must be the extreme bottom of the barrel. So bad they probably need to be totally stripped and rebuilt. It may well be cheaper and faster to build new from scratch.
Not exactly better to start with nothing. I mean this way you still start with a full hull and a turret casting. Everything else is probably newly fabricated. including engines etc. Maybe they use the blocks but nothing else. Still they don't have to build the hulls from scratch.
@@anderoo9260 Depends on the age of the chassis. Not much point having a T55 chassis if the tooling doesn't exist to make the turrets anymore and developing/making the tooling doesn't make sense for the numbers involved (billions of rubles just to make a few hundred turrets). That can apply to any chassis. Same for engines & engine mounts.
@@anderoo9260 I'm not a manufacturing expert, but I do know that rebuilding an old car is often slower, more expensive and takes more skill than just building a complete new one. And that's assuming you can reuse the old car body. Maybe the same applies for APC's.
@@marcusmoonstein242 Yes, but rebuilding a tank on a production line is vastly different than rebuilding a car or even a tank in a shed. They do have jigs for t72s, they do not want to preserve most components like a resto work does. Bolt seized? Oxy cut it. Shit welded on? Oxy cut it.
Stripping hulls on an industrial scale does have it's merits. Of course comes with more work as the vehicles condition worsens, but they still do not need the specialized raw materials for hull manufacture.
You have no idea how i wait your videos.. love your work i know how many times it take. Love from an 🇮🇹 living in 🇨🇭
Go back to Italy ...
Un italiano che segue Covert Cabal
Ottimo
@@paolocalzone7186 Keep up the spaghetti eating ...
@@johnmoser1162 maybe pizza 🍕
Most of the tanks and BMPs stored there are now standing in Ukraine as wrecks waiting to be melted down. Ukraine will be a big exporter of steel for a few years.
That said, those photos of Russian tanks remind me of my first time visiting a Soviet army base in Potsdam near Berlin. The SU had collapsed, the Russians were winding up their bases in Eastern Germany and I was commissioned to see what to do with the buildings left behind. These were in such bad condition, that 90% them them were condemned. It most cases the Russians had stripped them of everything: heating, water pipes, toilets, window frames and even wall paper.
Was that the northern part of Potsdam? I know that area and I know it was a Red Army base but it’s hard to get any more information on what structures remain from that time or how it looked like in the early 90s.
"Ukraine will be a big exporter of steel for a few years."
Unlikely since Russia controls most of Ukraine's Heavy industry in the south (Donbas region). Any scrap Steel on the Ukrainian will probably end up in Poland, or other eastern Europe nations, and recycled. I believe at this point all of Ukraine's Steel mills are out of commission from bombing, or lack of coal to operate.
@@Zackzickel Yes, it was in the northern part of the city. The campus of a university is there now, FHP, University of applied science, Potsdam. They've constructed a lot of new buildings there but also incorporated some of the buildings of the former Soviet barracks into the campus. The whole place is hardly recognisable from its early usage. To find it you just need to enter "Kiepenheuerallee" in Google maps.
@@guytech7310 The way things are going, the Donbass will most likely have return back into Ukrainian hands in the next 12 to 24 months. The west won't allow any other solution.
ua-cam.com/video/TzgPJeYZaOU/v-deo.htmlsi=YwB4WemPBCbXQr7U
I don't know whether to be sad that soon there'll be nothing left in storage to count, so no more of these updates, or happy that soon there'll be nothing left in storage!
Definitely the latter.
By the sound of it, there'll be less storage in general.
Soon they could start NK storage bases
There are less and less tanks in recent footage if the front..
I took that one weird turn down the internet path where is leads to an echo chamber of "Russia is running out of" everything. I was here to 2021. See you guys in 3 years when Russia is running out of everything all over again.
The same thing happened at the Kharkov Tank Factory. There was a huge warehouse for 585 tanks. It's empty now. Ukraine is also losing a lot of tanks.
Cool to hear that that means that both sides are using and kissing more than thy used so Russia and Ukraine losses of tanks are more than their visible losses
interesting how low their vehicle counts are getting
Thanks for putting this together! It's wild watching all this happen.
covert cabal video time!!
Do you hear that Russia? That is the sound of the a huge clock and it ticks towards zero.
I think you'll find it's rapidly counting down to midnight.
@@jonm7272using nukes first is suicide for any country. I doubt that russia cares abt Ukraine that much
Dont believe putin's saber rattling, the man has promised nuclear armageddon at least 10 times with different contexts
woah this coping is still going ??
Russia had no missile since 2022
Pootin was seen riding on a T34 on his way to zero.
The Soviet Union has been collecting these machines for decades - Russia has no chance of rebuilding these equipment stores. The conflict in Ukraine has permanently weakened Russia militarily.
Especially since it was Ukraine that was the Soviet's location for many military factories.
Lol, gimme a break
@@Howardlifts we have satellite imagery showing Russia burning through the Soviet inherited armor and artillery, and its at a faster rate than new production. Russia's military power came from its size and mass in men and equipment. Even if they "win" they are massively weaker than they started and will take decades of production to get back to those numbers. Not that they can use them because they have a hard time supplying the essentials to their current force, like uniforms, food and first aid kits.
@@avroarchitect1793🤣🤣🤣
Expert*😂😂😂
Well... 9000+ "confirmed" destroyed tanks and ifv/apcs have to come from somewhere
Confirmed by who?)
@relicthominide5546 By yourself if you want. Just check out any number of site's that publish foto and video evidence to count them if you want....
Although I'm adding citation marks since I guess nobody can know for sure.
@@PaletoB Why tanks in the wartime should be at long-term storage depots? Why do you think if it is not in storage, it is lost?)
@@relicthominide5546 Don't understand the first question.
Not sure I understand the second question either...
In 4 months there will be nothing left to count.
January 20th isn't 4 months away
woah this coping is still going ??
Russia had no missile since 2022
Since 2022 ? Never seen
@@MuhammadRidwan-pe7ny they've been buying more from iran and north korea
@@launchpendingfun fact
Europe has send 40% more aid then the us
Your expertise in counting really gives the background (90s inspections) a lot more depth. I'm not joking, I really appreciate, but it is a funny sentence to say.
@@malloc7108 He is official_covert_junkyard_inspector_from_the_deep_space 😆
When you were talking about the 1992 inspection you did not mention Canadians yet in a photo showing the Russians and Americans toasting one another there is a Canadian flag on the table. That means there was a Canadian contingent there as well as American.
I didn't even know the Canadians were in on those arms reduction treaties, that being said, I'd definitely like to see a video telling the story of the inspectors from all the participating countries.. 👍
I could total see a Soviet officer writing down there are zero tanks here while he looks out the window at over 1,000 tanks. Very Soviet.
"i have lost my spreadsheet with all listings, so I don't feel about to count everything from start"
Look, theres Tony Soprano at 1.09, making a deal by the looks of it.......
Much awaited, much appreciated, excellent insights as always from you.
Russia pulled about 150 tanks from a movie studio...desperation...
That much? I heard it was less... Several BMP's are included in that number, and some PT-76 light tanks. Either way, they scraped through the bottom of the barrel for their last hail mary
You sound jealous. That film studio is according to you more than half the size of the German army
😂 deluded.
@@romko4496 cope harder bro
@@dimitrytatarchuk900 Projecting much kiddo?
When I was in high school I remember seeing these tanks available for import into the US for less then $20k; when you read into it you found out it was a big gamble as they would always try and push the most run down ones they had first on the civilian international market. I did seriously consider pulling the trigger just because they were so inexpensive and technically they ran. I mostly was looking at the T-55 and early cold war tanks because they were so ancient nobody would ever use them in a war, I mean surely. Here we are nearly fifteen years later and Russia is making a mad dash trying to get these PoS's ready for battle and I'm just blown away.
Imagine if the US had run out of Abraham's in Afghanistan, and lacked anything more modern then a Sherman because we burned through so much stock and lacked the ability to replace our equipment. Then take into account the fact we held Afghanistan for twice as long as the USSR did, FROM AROUND THE OTHER SIDE OF THE WORLD. Russia and Ukraine are right next door.
Russia has revealed it's self to be a vodka soaked paper tiger and the funny thing about wet paper is it's even weaker, and vodka make's it even more flammable. Hence why the house of cards is burning down as it collapses.
You seem to think this war is Afghanistan. This is not afghanistan we’re you call in a strike on some dude taking pot shots from 600 yards out and never saw a MBT besides your own abrams. This is a near peer conflict were armor gets shredded by weapons handed out at the squad level.
“Vodka soaked paper tiger” mannnnn the world is going to be shocked in January. Echochambers are going to be shattered worse than the U.S. elections did.
What’s your point? The US lost to Afghani opium farmers, Russia is currently winning against almost all of NATO and Ukraine at the same time
There is no H in Abrams
Neat story you have written in your mind. The vodka soaked paper tiger takes more land every day from the NATO darling nation of hero's and democracy.
Baware - Russia’s yard sale is about to close
According to mainstream media - all shovel storage sites also empty!
And then there were none.
The first vehicles pulled out are those under proper cover. Vehicles from the inside are the first wave, while the second wave are outside stored vehicles towed inside for repair and maintenance.
11 years and all they got is 21% of Ukraine... Superpower from TEMU
@@ИмяФамилия-ж2л6ы2014
What does ukraine have after 11 years
@@danielconquer909 still almost 80% of their territory LMFAO This will go down as one of the most embarrassing wars any major power has ever fought no doubt
What's the point of regurgitating myths
Where’s the myth? Russia occupied Crimeea in 2014. We are in 2024.
The fact that Russia is using North Korean weapons and troops at this point should be a sign this war ain’t going well for them 😂
Apparently the round ups have started in Moscow, young men being grabbed in groups.
yet they are doing better than ever on the battlefield. Maybe they just put all of these tanks into service as they increased their army size drastically.
@@Fighter4StreetSure that 3 day operation is amazing..
Rus is done as a nation..
@@Fighter4Street seems to be just a last hail mary push to try and force something. This is clearly not a sustainable situation for them.
Maybe they are just making room for all the surplus T-14s that they don't have time to move to Ukraine.
Yeah.. must be lol..
Nonsense. T-14s are using their constantly rotating turrets to hover over undisclosed location(s) in Siberia. That's how they evade satellites - they're never on the ground to be counted.
You mean the Armata's? Russia only has a dozen or so of these tanks and they are only used for the yearly victory parade in Moscow. Also these tanks malfunction a lot because they are too high tech one of then even broke down during one of these parades a couple of years ago.
Another one for the algorithm. Keep it up.
I love you work! Thank you
Great video. Thank you for your fine work. 👍😎
Isn't it some of the finest OSint videos to inform & interpret folks?? This is definitely a work beyond me, like, I like to think I'm this conscientious!
finally, some good news to tell Arnold.
I love this stuff❤ keep up the good work
How many are useless rusted wrecks
At this point, most of them probably.
Yes.
Thank you. You bring a unique and valuable insight to our understanding of this disastrous conflict
With the worst vehicles remaining, there's like to be a lot of cannibalisation and consolidation going on. If 20 vehicles disappear, it's entirely possible that they've assembled, say, 15 working ones out of those 20. Similarly, the hulls left may already have had bits torn out to fix ones that were being shipped out.
Not likely. You can't just "assemble" 15 working engines or tank barrels out of 20 that have corroded.
And if the turret is gone or left open -vehicle is probably already stripped of useful parts and/or rusted out.
@@d3nza482 Maybe he talks about those already taken out of storage, and while not mentioning it, he probably did not mean they would end with 15 perfect vehicles without adding additional new parts. Either way, it's really, really bad for Russia
Thanks
What are those bus looking green things @5:53? Truck portable living quarters for generals? ;)
those are modified scooby doo vans. they have purple shag carpet on the walls
@@theorenhobart "But like, what's the Russian version of Scooby Snacks, man?"
@@Suralin0 Soylent green
These are "KUNG" cabins for command trucks, like Ural 4320 or Gaz 66.
@@Suralin0vodka
Great video! Loved the animations
What about the shovel stockpile, how's that doing?
The only thing wrong with these videos is that they are not an hour long
Last time I was this early, Russian long term storage depots were full.
It is just because it s a war now, and there is no reason to hold tanks in storage depots)
I ❤Covert Cabal!
2:10 Considerably more tanks than Zero 😂
Nice one, Mr Cabal.
Great vid!
And NATO didnt even lose 1 solider
Sarcasm
No regular forces anyway. Maby some SF, but we won't know for sure, unless info gets declassified.
I would like to see a quarterly overview of Russia status in tanks, artillery ifvs etc. it would be good to have an estimate on how much longer Russia can go at it’s current burn rate.
87% gone from this site over 1,000 days.
Assuming a linear regression. Roughly 150 days to zero I think.
Although I doubt it's linear.
@@nic.h I also doubt the linearity of the regression. When you get near the bottom of the barrel, or in this case, the remaining supply...a much greater percentage of the fleets will be units which were passed over for refit because of massive damage or parts shortages. Essentially units which were borderline for scrapping, but might have been left in inventory to serve as parts donors for more viable units. I expect the rundown to zero units suitable for refit will now begin to hasten quite dramatically.
@4ager505 my guess would be it might actually slow down. As you say bottom of the barrel, so it take more effort to get something usable, so repair time increases.
It's either that or they just scrap them for turtle tank plating and any parts they can salvage.
@@nic.h What do you count at all, have you ever thought that during a war, equipment should be at the front, not at long-term storage bases? If something is gone from the storage base, it means that it is being used, not that it is lost.
They have said on a few occasions that the number will never functionally be zero. There are always going to be tanks and APCs available. They also still have large stores of artillery apparently.
Can you imagine how rich Ukrainian scrap dealers will be once this war is over?
Well yes, but you failed to consider Russia is advancing anyway so the wrecks are in territories controlled by Russia.
@@JSF1571 for now, yes. We will have to wait to see how willing Trump is to reward Putin for starting a war before we can tell who will control the land after that
"once this war is over?" @@JSF1571
Some of the oldest BMP’ stored outside in harsh conditions for decades would have bern rust buckets.
Pulled off for the odd spares such as drive shafts, gear boxes, differentials, etc, but the rest just melted down.
Awesome vid. Thanks!
Since when has CCP, Soviet Union, or Russia have ever been honest in any treaty? SAC and cold war vet here.
Point out a treaty that anyone has complied with 100%.
Apparently the round ups have started in Moscow, young men being grabbed in groups.
What a brain dead comment acting as if the US are peaceful. And yet every country touched by US are bombed. You're a war crinimal if anything
С момента появления спутниковых снимков стало сложно лгать, даже таким гнилым образованиям как рф
Tank + drone = no more tank
Thus drone = -tank
Depends is that tank and drone friendly.
I was thinking about why they aren't consolidating to fewer bases, but then I realized that if most of the remaining vehicles don't run it's probably not practical to consolidate to fewer bases.
I doubt that many of these vehicles run. They are almost certainly towed and pushed to the trains where they are shipped to rebuild facilities. Even vehicles with a sized drivetrain can be moved with enough equipment and determination.
No one has a motivation to do a good job of cleaning up the depots. It's a far safer job than hoping for a 'rear area support only' role at the front.
Consolidation comes with downsides as well.
Through all the Noise these last few years your Inputs have been a refreshing Baseline to go off of
Thank you chaps for your efforts.
Interesting about the visits in the 1990’s of US forces.
Only one question: will they run out of money before tanks?
answers the question of why rzza was hording gold since 2012
I think their economy is overheating
@@theorenhobart Money not gold. You know USD, Euro, Yen, Yuan, etc. Gold can be used to exchange for money but only when you have a buyer and Russia has to take a loss. Also I assume you mean the gold they've been stealing for Africa using Wagner?
Well, considering that apparently even the banks in their bestest buddy China are hesitant to give them funding, it's a genuine question. The ruble is heading for stagflation, BRICS summits are asking attendees to bring US dollars... This Jenga tower looks wobbly.
They are certainly reducing the cost of looking after these in future...
They'll need all the savings to help with reparations.
It's like "we are spending half of our budget on this war, but finally good news, we can cut our spendings on 0.05%"
... and that frees manpower that can be sent to the front.
1:04 Tony Soprano stands alongside Boris Yeltsin wtf
I love your 3D models! You have blessed all of us with these! Love it!
Thank you for your work
Ah, so thats why they used conventional MIRVs the other day.
how many, how often???
1x
That was a test/demonstration
It was a threat. A MIRV is accurate enough for a "physics package" as a near miss still counts as a hit, but a conventional or kinetic payload is gonna miss the target by hundreds of feet.
@@ChucksSEADnDEAD it was an expensive display to try and give more credence to his earlier threat.
Rus has come to a sad end..
Rus historicly located on todays Ukraine´s lands. Rus ~ Ukraine.
Russia is a successor state of Golden Horde..
@tarmovilu8417 Rus clock is ticking, 2026 is the end, no money, no tanks, no soldiers..
Where are all the useful idiots saying Russia has unlimited resources now? 😂
Probably a number of them are fertilizing sunflowers.
Unlimited resources with no industry to make use of them yes
At the moment Russia is a bit low on resources, but come January 20, they might have a LOT extra. There are a lot of people shouting in the comments that America should keep all their suprlus Abrams and Bradleys and keep paying the storage, guarding and maintenance cost (to be honest they never mention the cost part but sadly it will not go away...) and should Ukraine refuse to surrender even with all aid cut push might come to shove....
@@sjonnieplayfull5859 America does not want to continue aiding Ukraine against Russia because it pushes them further towards China.
Britain maintains it's isolation by preventing unification of continental Europe. US maintains it's isolation by preventing unification of Eurasia. Russian resources can be utilized either with European or Chinese economy. The war in Ukraine has broken up Europe and Russia, but its pushing them towards China.
They are busy moving the goal post and gaslighting.
Amazing video, stay away from windows and tea though
Great video!
Can you imagine how many people would have to lose their lifes for even one of these pictures during the early cold war. Now its Thursday 😄
1:54 oh if only that was true
We 3D-modelled the base, but didn't 3D-model the tanks in the base. Therefore, the base is ...
(•_•)
( •_•)>⌐■-■
(⌐■_■)
... virtually empty.
cute tank, kid.
You are still missing on Bluesky!
Russia doesn't need tanks and missiles. They have very sharp shovels.
Fantastic thanks again
Well, judging by the Russian use of infantry meat waves these days leading assaults I figured as much
For the price of a cheap tank, the Ukraine gets 10 Javelins, its a rat race the tanks cant win
What do you guys think of this: I suspect Trump will be much harder on Putin than expected. His ego is what drives him, completely. He wants to look strong and good on an international stage and knows his supporters will always support him. I think he will try negotiating, but it will go down because Putin is "winning" and would want harsh terms, which Ukraine obviously can't accept. If Trump forces Ukraine to those terrible terms, he will be seen as an extremely weak Putin bootlicker. He can't do that either. But what he can do is pump, maybe in secret with companies like Slovakia under Fico, more stuff into Ukraine to win it for them. Or just completely switch sides, would not be the first time. What do you think? Some might call me crazy but I think this is really highly likely.
Obviously, Trump/USA has no way of forcing Ukraine to any terms, neither Ukraine nor Russia can accept the demands of the other so Trump will either have to appear weak or side with one of them.
Trump doesn't have enough support to actually side with Russia even if he wanted to, so the math is pretty easy.
If you believe Trump will accept looking like a weak and incompetent person then you might think he will do nothing, if you think Trump is more concerned about his appearance and ego then he will double down on aid to Ukraine and say he is doing it because Europe is going to pay for everything USA sends 😂
I think there is a better chance of that than most people give credit for. I very much doubt that Trump would have so heavily constrained Ukraine due to a fear of escalation.
The biggest risk as I see it, is that I think 2nd term Trump might be more afraid of looking like a warmonger than of looking weak. He and his supporters spend way too much time talking about how no new wars started under his watch, and too little time talking about the fact that it was Trump's 1st term heavy handed foreign policy that kept a lid on things. Way too many people within his orbit have criticized the Biden administration's loosening of restrictions for my comfort, when I had figured that would have been Trump's first move. Trump is pretty creative in finding leverage points, so hopefully he has something up his sleeve. I just wish it was a bit more clear that he understood the national interest in preventing geopolitical rivals from simply taking whatever territory that they want.
The most recent poll I've seen says that some, what, 80% of Americans support us helping Ukraine out? As you said, Trump is fueled by his ego, so I could absolutely see him rotating to help them win if he knew it would make him look good to the populace.
Even more so, I suspect these days Putin can provide less to Trump and can scare him less as well. Nothing seems to stick on the dude. With how transactional Trump is, if Zelenskyy comes up and says Trump can build a Trump tower in downtown Kiev and a Trump golfcourse on the black sea, Trump my take his offer. His followers are so easy to forget and would pivot without much fuss if their leader starts supporting Ukraine. And then Trump can falsely claim he is the savior of Europe or something and the bestest bigly president ever.
Amazing work, as usual 👍
Can you count IFVs and APCs as well?
It's scary when they runs out of the old equipment, they'll start to use the modern one like those ICBM.
It's not only about what actions are theoretically possible but also about the international reaction to those actions.
Do you know what would happen if Russia would have to resort to using intercontinental missiles for a war that is not just on the same continent, but a direct neighbor?
Imagine I'd claim to be a great fighter, start a fight with a significantly smaller person, and then feel the need to pull out a gun.
Its a sign of desperation and weakness.
Russia probably COULD win the war pretty quickly if they would throw everything they had at it, but such actions have severe consequences. You loose respect, you loose standing, you loose credibility.
It's not only about what actions are theoretically possible but also about the international reaction to those actions.
Do you know what would happen if Russia would have to resort to using intercontinental missiles for a war that is not just on the same continent, but a direct neighbor?
Imagine I'd claim to be a great fighter, start a fight with a significantly smaller person, and then feel the need to pull out a gun.
Its a sign of desperation and weakness.
Russia probably COULD win the war pretty quickly if they would throw everything they had at it, but such actions have severe consequences. You loose respect, you loose standing, you loose credibility, AND you loose your ICBMs.
No country wants to see ICBMs being used. ICBMs are the basis for the mutual assured destruction protocol. It's not a regular military strategy, it's a borderline suicidal act of desperation.
However, a substantially smaller person taking steroid received it from a third party.
Russ-bot copium Stronk!
For real
So is it safe to assume that Russia will never have the kind of industrial capacity to rebuild those stocks of equipment?
Never is a long time.
But probably not during the next few decades.
Yes and would you like to know why? Russia didn't build their tanks, Ukraine and Poland did, along with Eastern Germany. People often get confused about Russia and they think it's actually been at some point capable of producing decent weapons in meaningful numbers but that's never been true. During WWI they had continuous shortages for everything and lost the war ducking out long before anyone else. Then when they started WWII with the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and their collaborated invasion of Poland and Germany betrayed them we had to send:
400,000 jeeps & trucks
14,000 airplanes
8,000 tractors
13,000 tanks
1.5 million blankets
15 million pairs of army boots
107,000 tons of cotton
2.7 million tons of petrol products
4.5 million tons of food
Most of which was never paid for, and this equipment is what they used after the war to invade Europe and hold it long enough to use East Germany, Poland, Ukraine, Romania, etc who actually had industrialized. Much of their equipment was stolen and brought back to Russia but the expertise in these countries meant Russia relied on them and by the time the USSR collapsed most of Russia's Jet engines were built in Ukraine, computers in east germany, etc. I don't know the specifics off the top of my head but look into it. that's why Ukraine is so quickly rearming, because they were a core component in the USSR's industrial military complex.
Russia has people and raw resources, that's they're blessing and curse. They've never managed to actually be an industrial power like Japan, the US, Germany, China. Russia is the international gas station you buy a bag of fertilizer at. You might buy their weapons back when they had enough to export but they can't spare anything anymore and that means the economy is eating it's self to stay afloat. Russia has no future.
Not anytime soon no..
@@GeorgeWashingtonLaserMusket 4th economy of the world dude..
@@robrob9050 Not according to GDP, they come in 11th. Just ahead of South Korea and Mexico. The state of California alone would rank #5.