Це відео не доступне.
Перепрошуємо.
I’m Going All-In On Big Tech
Вставка
- Опубліковано 12 сер 2024
- 🎉 4,000+ Member Patreon: / josephcarlson
🚀 Growth Portfolio: click.linksynergy.com/deeplin...
💵 Dividend Portfolio: click.linksynergy.com/deeplin...
QUALTRIM.COM & PATREON (Includes free trial)
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
Join Here: / josephcarlson
The Patreon Membership includes Qualtrim.com, membership to a private discord community, and hundreds of exclusive episodes.
📚 My favorite Investing Books: amzn.to/3KwyIhG
📷 All the tech I use to record videos: www.amazon.com/shop/josephcar...
SOCIAL MEDIA
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
🎥 More free content: / @josephcarlsonshow
🐦 I post random thoughts on Twitter too: / joecarlsonshow
DISCLAIMER
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
I am not a professional investor and have never claimed to be. I'm an amateur investor sharing my experience of what I've learned, where I have had success, and where I've had failures. I share my thoughts on investing and performance with transparency. My approach and goal to investing is to buy high-quality long-term investments in world-class businesses that I call "compounders". I view my investments as businesses, not as stocks. Before creating content on UA-cam full time I worked as a senior-level programmer for 8 years. Over the years as a programmer, I compounded my knowledge of development. I take the same iterative learning approach to my study of investing. I study investing as a craft in the continual pursuit of being better. I will make mistakes in investment decisions from time to time. Results are not guaranteed. Please do not blindly follow me into any investments, and make sure your portfolio and investments are built around your specific income, risk tolerance, personality, timeline, and overall circumstances.
@Joseph Carlson After Hours
1) It feels like your argument here is that people have been wrong in the past so people will always be wrong in the future so just buy big tech now. This doesn't seem very well thought out. It's great to look at the historical performance of these companies but where is the analysis on the future returns?
2) I agree with your quote: "The growth will slow down, it will not stop". But again, where is the quantitative analysis of future growth? Much time is spent discussing qualitative factors, which are definitely important, but so are the quantitative ones. You love AAPL, yet it is only estimated to grow revenue and eps at about 6% and 8% annually respectively. It is my opinion that this is not worth current PE of 30.
3) I agree that good companies should trade at a PE above the average company in the SP500. However, the SP500 is nearly 1 std above the average multiple for the past 20 years (slide 5 from link below). So everything seems relatively expensive, especially when considering the risk free rate is over 5% so I question if this is a good time to plow in. Similarly, MSFT is a great company with subscription revenue. But saying you believe it should trade above a 30 PE "just because", seems to lack any quantitative analysis for me to follow you there.
Finally, big tech is OVERVALUED, not undervalued at this current time. They comprise 32% of the market value of the SP500. However, they only account for 21% of the earnings. See slide 11 from this deck
am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/mi-guide-to-the-markets-us.pdf
META and GOOG trade at a discount to the market and seem like the only buys to me.
New to the channel. EchoesFromAbove decided to make a bashing video of you. His points were shallow and I disagreed with most of what he said as being "bad". The comments section overwhelmingly came to your defense, in stark contrast to those he usually calls out. Kudos to you for generating a strong and positive fan base, you've gained a follower. Cheers.
Lol that echoes video shows that he’s just a grifter. He did zero research on Joseph-he said that Joseph hides his returns but Joseph actually showcases his returns in most of his videos.
100% agree - I would also include companies like Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) into this thought process as well. They always look "overvalued" but are businesses with huge moats, insane margins, ridiculous cash flow, and still have revenue growth > 10%
Visa and UNH Pepsi Costco are the true monster compounders
I’m compiling and picking stocks that I’d love to hold on to for a few years before retirement, do you think these stocks would do better over the years? I’d love to retire with at least $2million savings. Now you gotta rely on a pretty good diversification if you must stay green. Currently up 21% and being cautious. Still better deal than letting it sit in savings or checking earning near 5% interest.
Well up at 21% in this present market is impressive. I was wondering if investing in a cumulative ETF during this next decade is a sound investment. Or is it better to invest in a distributing ETF (even considering taxes)?
ETFs are cool. My portfolio is very much diversified so it's not like i have a particular fund i invest in. You should probably copy a licensed person more so one with experience of the past bear markets. I copy a chartered financial analyst Camille Anne Hector Been quite consistent. My portfolio returned $250k in Q4
With only 350k what do expect people to do ? 10 shares of one of those stocks will not get u anywhere. 3 shares of Vanguard ETF give me a break. Forget the past of 10x stocks ! Those free money days are over ! With 350k just buy a ETF like DIVO with a 5% monthly dividend and add what u can each month.
I am envious i've been in the red for too long even before the dip but would like to ask are you giving her your money or the money stays in your account?
I have complete conttol of my account. That's the ideal for copy trading. My account only mirrors her trades in real time.
Here’s another reason why big tech always holds up. They are already the top weighted stocks in S&P-500 and every 2 weeks, like clockwork, millions of Americans pump in a portion of their paycheck into large cap mutual funds via 401K contribution. So essentially, we bid up the top stocks all the time.
More passive investing than ever
This does explain SPY P/E expansion but not why these companies continue to become increasingly concentrated within the index.
Exactly, so dumb. It’s like a ponzi scheme at this point. But that’s why we have regulators and the FTC.
Amazon has tried to create organic growth and has failed miserably other than AWS.
Microsoft expands through acquisition.
Apple is branding.
Google sells your data.
Facebook is business marketing.
The future of our society is in efficiency, whether it’s energy, automation, agriculture, or medicine.
The tech layoffs happened BECAUSE these companies have become very inefficient.
The next big companies are in the small cap or mid cap that have some sort of efficient moat.
@@carlsophiabaker8856the index is literally market cap indexed. SPY will ALWAYS hold the best performing companies, no matter the decade. So why bet on big tech when you can grab the SP 500 and it does it for you. . .
@@carlsophiabaker8856bc sp500 is mkt cap weighted so the % of better companies will go up due to price gain or mkt cap. The company's market cap is determined by multiplying each company's outstanding share count by its current share price. Next, the market caps of all S&P 500 components are added together. Each company's market cap is then divided by the total in order to determine its weight in the index.
Though I fully agree with most of your points, when looking at valuation you should not take the SP500 P/E but the SP500 P/E without „the magnificent 7“ as otherwise their higher P/E is causing the gap between theirs and the SP500 average to be significantly smaller.
Thus ironically the p/e of the SP500 would be much higher without big tech.
@@hondusspa I doubt it
I thought exactly the same but then checked the PE of the total US market in it is 23... So not that bad compared to the S&P without or with the magnificent7.
@@1stFoxmovie so are you saying that by taking out the magnificent 7 the S&P 500's PE ratio would go up or?
@@1stFoxmovie commenting if someone provides P/E without Big 7
Genuinely simple and honest financial suggestion .. kudos
Your channel is underrated!! Keep up the good work man. 🎉
Good point about the super investors vs the best well known stocks Joseph.
This was such a great video, I’ve not seen anyone else break down the big tech value proposition this way. Awesome work. Thank you!
sound advice, and with you on this! Cheers mate!
Eye opening. Thank you Joseph.
Recently discovered you, i love your videos, can you give a little insight in how to find great companies. I know there isnt a screener that just finds them for you but what do you look for?
It is a smart analysis you made. Well done!
You should make a video where you compare big tech to stocks like Nvidia and Tesla.
Hello, thanks for a great video. Can you tell me what you think the most undervalued tech stock in your portfolio is?
Even if big tech is priced correctly today, you can still take advantage of them being over priced in the future when the market inevitably overheats.
Thank You Joseph !
Incentive, is a good point. Another example of someone / something that has their own best interest in mind , vs the customer .
Hi Joseph, may I ask which broker are you using right now (in this video)? Thanks for the recommendation.
Great work!
Thanks!
Very informative and good content!!!!
Joseph, can you please do a video analyzing LRCX , Lam Research corp? Amd if you consider it a buy?
thanks for explained in simple way
Great video.. I been trading the big tech companies for a while without any fear of loosing my holdings… 🎉
Are those companies really even tech companies anymore? I feel like they are more consumer discretionary now. Amazon is an online retailer that has a portion of the business in AWS. Apple hasn’t been innovative in years. They sell phones and iPads with a subscription service for other features. Same for Netflix. No big innovations there either. Just another SAS company that falls into discretionary spending. Thoughts?
You're gonna completely disregard Apple Pay? Apple Pay scares banks because it cuts into their swipe fee profits.
I would still categorize them as “tech” companies because of the services they provide. But to give my thoughts on these tech companies, while all these companies may not “innovate” in a ground breaking manner you think tech companies do so, there are reasons why they are at the top. That dominant business drivers and have monopolies in the industry they occupy. They have cash flow rich balance sheets that can continually find ways of expansion and growth because of their position as industry leaders and monopolies. This is my personal opinion, but I think that’s what separates them as “Big Tech” rather than companies looking for a niche to occupy.
I agree that apple is not as innovative anymore
They're scaleable. i.e. tech
These companies are leaps ahead of anything else in terms of RnD spend it’s an easy assumption that THEY will out innovate competition
Also what tools do you use
Amazing content... Very informative! Thanks my guy. Keep it up 👍🏾
Get it. It went up more!
Current Apple P/E is 31 and not 25. Where do you get the data? Even if you use the forward earning or estimate is not quite right. The earning was growing 5%yoy so why to pay PE of 31?
Jo-Jo: thank you for taking the trouble to make this case. Useful.
Very good takes, I own most of those so I'm biased, but there is a lot of room to grow and little downside risk
The problem tech has is that salaries and stock comp are reaching insane numbers and eating away margins. Can revenues grow to keep up with these insane costs with the current market penetration? If not, other industries will become better investments. And honestly, unless there’s a bigger pool of developers, designers, etc. I don’t see these salaries going down.
Loads of people are seeing these salaries and getting into the industry. There's lots of room for salary decreases.
Hey Joseph I know you love Costco what do you think about BJ wholesale? It looks like it’s trading at a cheaper valuation and similar ROIC.
Remember super investors are also managing rich peoples money that they already probably have shares in these big tech from their perspective they'll probably be overweight, I don't want someone to put my money in AMZN in fact 30% of my portfolio is already in AMZN 20% in AAPL and 20% in MSFT.
Super video, very many good points listed. I also think that Big Tech will have in the long run.
Will have what ?
Thank you Joseph, smart analysis, effortlessly conveyed.
ETF for me, i cant stock pick haha
Good choice
nothing wrong with SCHG and QQQM!
nothing wrong with that. The master Buffet himself has said multiple times that IF you are unsure, an ETF or a good fund can be a good option.
:)@@LEric49
Same. 👍 Rather focus my free time on living a healthy life and becoming a better engineer (ideally eventually increasing my pay) than creating a well researched, meditated investments thesis about various portfolio companies. Stock picking done well takes a lot of time and prep for me to feel secure in my choices.
You forgot to mention one super investor that has nearly 100% of Apple in her portfolio for 10 years straight. It is my wife.😍
Another great video brother 🤛
in spirit i agree, but to add more diversity i would just go with QQQ. You never know for example if Apple could one day go under ( I have seen it with once prominent tech companies like Sony and Dell). Technology is strong for the next 5-10 years because the US is in a digital war with China. Amazon and Microsoft are much more diversified in their services and business model. Big tech will outperofrm SP for next decade but once AI takes all of our jobs, I cannot forecast what earnings will be like in the future
Glo with XLK instead
Yes, it too risky. Nasdaq or sp500 IT listings more focused in a balance is better.
How many more quarters of apple not growing will it take for you to finally reconsider? Legit question and what if.
absolutely correct!
what do you think about ABNB?
Makes sense.
Yes you figure it out! I've been wondering the same for quite some time now... "Even when the obvious thing is the best thing to do" you hit the nail right on the head! I totally agree
Joseph can you do a video on your daily routine, like what websites do you use, where do you get updated on news etc.
UA-cam refused to show me this video, I had to actually search for it when normally this channel is in the feed
Do those super investors own any ETF's that hold apple/microsoft?
Even though i didnt grasp eveything he said while watching the video fkr the first time, i still think theres some sense in there and I'd listen to it say a 2nd time to take that understanding a bit higher.
Li Lu also doesn't charge the 2%
Joesph's logic is sound and reasonable. He has good reason for his perspective.
how can u see the earnings from October 25, 2023
Perhaps you don’t understand the concept of overvaluation, the market will teach you
I remember reading these trite comments when I was buying Apple in 2018.
you get that white tee from Costco?
What is your tolerance to Drawdown? How much drawdown are you able to withstand on your portfolio? What was the maximum Drawdown so far?
Infinite.
Really great video, Joseph! You discussed the elephant in the room.
I agree with Joseph that money managers like Cathie W. have to justify their fees by looking away from the most obvious stocks. Same goes with financial advisors that put you in useless, fancy-sounding, underperforming ETFs so they look smart for the AUM fees they get.
Who's KW ?
@@johnristheanswer I actually meant Cathie Wood, so CW.
Joseph has a good point, 20 & 2 money managers know that we have access to a lot of publicly available information. So, they must offer investment ideas that are readily available to us. For example, they will not tell us to put our money in an S&P 500 index, despite its low risk, high diversity (though a little tech heavy these days), & solid returns. But, Mr. Buffett gives that advice to retail investors all the time. Odd, huh?
Buy ASML: The Highest-Moat Business On The Market.
Hi Joseph,I hope it works out fine, I'm also invested in these companies,but not this concentrated. Everything sounds great......but remember the 60s....70s....the NIFTY50? Sounds similiar.....with a very long time horizon and not paying insane pe's it still worked out fine......if you included WMT.
Like your Videos 🫡
I m already all in gafam+tsm
New sub here, still confused about the lack of Tesla interest 🤷🏻♂️
How much of the growth of these companies and the market as a whole can be attributed to pumping new cash in over the past decade. With the fed printing on top of banks being able to lend out significantly more than they have doesn’t that create an illusion of growth when it’s really just inflation? My house has doubled in value but with the price of everything going up have I really made that much of an actual gain?
10 years ago we were in the beginning of the bullrun, now we are closer to the end then beginning
To have the same PE as the market, Apple would trade at $152, Microsoft at $247, amazon at $62.6. To me, these companies are trading at significant premiums (not saying they should or shouldn't be, just that they are).
Yep, quality brings premium
I want some chipote after a stock split.
Are you generating alpha relative to SPY/S&P500 Mr. Carlson?
As always Great story by Aesop Carlson.
Joseph, excellent thinking! Agreed 100%. You can find some fascinating additional points that strongly support your argument for going all-in on big tech: Felix & Friends' youtube channel, video titled "Sell everything except these 10 stocks." The guy is a really smart, retired investment banker, with a great financial UA-cam Channel.
Could you talk about Buffet going more into cash and Burry betting against the market (again)?
Burry has been betting against the market every year since 2007. He started in 2023. So he can't be seen as a reliable source.
Im way more concerned about Buffet selling AAPL AND Bank Of America.
You were right the last time, big tech was cheap 7 months ago. Now + 1y? Almost impossible. At best they are stable with little to no growth, at worst we get a tech crash. The risk is out of proportion.
Risk compared to what? You heard the man saying they have a lower PE than the market and you still think that?
Bro, impossible happens every year for last 10 years. Current enironment is kind of “everything in bubble” so you just pick the most primising (tech) bubble.
AAPL is considered as cash-alternative.
Top shelf stuff…
Amazon is not as worldwide as Apple, Google or MSFT. Most countries have their own dominant ecommerce.
I feel that the dominance of Big Tech (and all Big Beta really, including TSLA, NVDA, ADBE, NFLX, etc) is less based on their healthy fundamentals and more based on their indexes' market cap domination and the advent of passive investing. Massive 401Ks propped up by central policy (ZIRP, stimulous, TINA, etc) have influxed trillions into SPY/QQQ on autopilot without necessarily conducting the deeper fundamental analysis you do.
Spot on.
It is exactly because they are healthy strong companies that they dominate the indices. And if it wasn’t them dominating it’d be some other companies. But big beta is not nearly as healthy as big tech.
Faulting a strong company because they are dominant seems like a weakness to me. Also there is more money than ever in the market because technology has enabled people from all over the world to invest.
@@rzadigi nah, technology has nothing to do with it. There is more money in the stock market because almost $5T were printed into existance out of the blue and hellicoptered around.
@@HectorYague well the CARE Act was only two trillion and all of that money surely did not find its way into the market. But foreign money has, amounting to more than 14 trillion and 40% of all US stocks. Massive numbers that increased 40% from 2020. So yeah, foreign investment is quite substantial.
Perhaps compare and contrast the top ten companies in the SP 500 every decade for the last 50 years.
Sad. Only decent growing dividend there is MSFT. Everyone just had a long horrible time with big tech stocks with NO dividends either. I'm glad I waited till they were green again but never again I'm buying anything without growing dividends. I prefer V and SPGI from your portfolio.
Well. I own a huge amount of SPGI and MA in my other portfolio.
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours I know. I watch all your videos from both channels. Make more 😊 You should have couple of more high yielders besides VICI..? Then compounding would happen faster.
Very interesting thoughts ty joseph
I run a CTA, I don’t charge management fees, and for the record I’m shorting many of these companies.
Please people, ignore valuations, they don’t mean ANYTHING.
Chicago Transit Authority?
Crypto Trading Aardvark?
You sound like the new money fools in 1999, shortly before the pop.
@@CapAnson12345
Commodity trading advisory register with the CFTC (we trade Futures)
@@dave5905
I didn’t go short in 1999, I went short in 2000
joseph the thing that you dont get is that buffett its obliged to buy mega cap stock when investing signifficant % of his portfolio.. due to volume.. he bought aapl at a time that it was at 12 times earnings.. charlie and buffet both said that they would invest in other companies if they were working with smaller sums.. like better bargains with longer runway and faster pace of grouth.. just think what woul it take for amazon to grow 50x from here, in assets, cash flow, reveneu etc.. smaller companies can do it, amazon cant
Hands down your best video so far, no bullshit straight facts. I do like this way of investing
Straight up speculation lol. Why do you think past performance is not an indicator of future performance?
Why did you sell ADBE?
Just because big tech was undervalued before does not mean it is undervalued or even fairly valued today. Also most superinvestors likely are already heavily exposed to the indexes and thus are not putting companies that heavily weight the index in portfolios designed to generate alpha.
@@EarlOSandwichhave you ever heard of the nifty fifty? Fifty companies that was the old world’s “big tech”, thought too good and too big to fail. Only two stocks of the nifty fifty were successful, mcdonalds and walmart. its entirely likely that big tech winds up like this.
When it comes to investment, diversification is key. That is why I have my interests set on key sectors based on performance and projected growth. They range from the EV sector, renewable energy, Tech and Health alongside coins, and gold. I'm also working on an investment plan that includes AI looking into Nvidia, MSFT, Alphabet stocks among others with my FA, Lisa Rosa Cavanagh. It's been a year and half of steady growth to a 7 figure portfolio...
impressive! love the strategy
I googled the lady you mentioned, and left a mail after going through her credentials. I'm willing to make consultations to improve my portfolio..
What about Tesla?
I like your channel but I feel like you’re playing with fire. The macro data continues to deteriorate the longer this goes on since the Fed started hiking rates. I like your portfolio and your strategy on picking companies but I fell your portfolio lacks any sort of hedging strategy. What are your plans if we should slip into a recession? What will you do if we have an 08 moment and your portfolio are down massive in one day? Will you panic sell? Will you just hold and lose all those gains? I’m interested to hear your viewpoint on this. I agree in long run tech will outperform because of how tech is embedded in our daily living.
I respect you channel and your opinion but let’s be honest, majority of your gains happen because of Fed pumping the market during Covid.
Tig Bech!
Great video, but why would you have so little money in the stocks that have the highest returns like Apple and Microsoft? Why do you keep so much money in Netflix and Amazon?
I think using S&P 500 P/E may be misleading because it is heavily weighted to the big tech heavy weight in the index which would skew the index P/E. So I checked the P/E of the total US market and its P/E is 23. In this light, the big techs are close the total market making your claim about reasonable valuation seems valid.
So would S&P 500 total P/E (without Big 7) be higher or lower?
The "big" part in big tech is probably the effect of being good, fast growing, wide moat companies.
Also, big tech might be deemed overpriced because of their fast growth. Humans are generally wired to think linearly. Growth above linear can deceive us, and especially because of the second argument that "they are so big already"
These companies don’t have moats other than NVidia and Tesla. Apple somewhat has a brand/ecosystem moat. The others have competition in everything they do.
I own Fngu at 15% of my entire portfolio. Other 85% in staples and spgp. Rebalance every year and this strategy makes bank with very little risk
Buffett literally said he is not 50% in aapl. his private investments are not reflected in the 13-Fs
VGT!
Why do you say this now as opposed to the end of 2022? Big tech has only shot up this year because of sentiment with A.I., that's why these companies, as well as Nvidia and Tesla have legit made a vertical line. When people realize that A.I. doesn't impact as much as they would like, I'm betting you'll see a majority of these company's drop down again.
I have a video called “big tech is cheap” that was released 7 months ago. The video is still live, you can search it now.
In this video I’m saying big tech will keep outperforming. Which I think it will.
@JosephCarlsonAfterHours I did watch that, and you were correct. Big tech at that time was cheap. If your evaluation has not changed, why didn't you go all in at the time? The qqq is up 43% ytd. All signs point to it being a huge bubble. Don't want you holding heavy bags. Love your content btw, just disagree with your thesis on current big tech valuations. Been buying Vici every week!
Your a smart dude, I appreciate your channel my man 👌
The marketing fund Companies are the reason people are diversified because they sell Mutual Funds, ETF, and "trading" to generate income. Why would they tell anyone to just buy the top 10 Tech companies for the next 20 years? They would rather scare the heck out of people by "dumping," Yes, I said it, " selling " QQQ and spreading FUD, and then telling their customers You see, this is why you need me. I will spread the risk around. Let's add some KO, some Bonds, hahaha, and so on.
Financial Education Jeremy sent me here
No the QQQ has investment restrictions to prevent excessive concentrations.