Buffett Wins Again (Why He Can't Be Beat)
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- Опубліковано 6 лип 2024
- My challengers to Buffett have come and gone, in this video we examine how Buffett is always able to win.
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00:00 Preview
07:30 Great Economics
10:46 Large Moat
12:20 Mentality
17:16 Dividend Growth
21:00 Buybacks
25:30 Honest Accounting
30:16 Not following Buffett
36:10 Efficient Market Hypothesis
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About Joseph Carlson:
I am not a professional investor and have never claimed to be. I'm an amateur investor sharing my experience of what I've learned, where I have had success, and where I've had failures. I share my thoughts on investing and performance with transparency. My approach and goal to investing is to buy high-quality long-term investments in world-class businesses that I call "compounders". I view my investments as businesses, not as stocks. Before creating content on UA-cam full time I worked as a senior-level programmer for 8 years. Over the years as a programmer, I compounded my knowledge of development. I take the same iterative learning approach to my study of investing. I study investing as a craft in the continual pursuit of being better. I will make mistakes in investment decisions from time to time. Results are not guaranteed. Please do not blindly follow me into any investments, and make sure your portfolio and investments are built around your specific income, risk tolerance, personality, and timeline, and overall circumstances.
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Honest question: if you say Buffett is the best, then why not just buy Brk.a or Brk.b instead of picking individual stocks?
20% annually for 57 years is just insane.
Renaissance Technologies is also insane lol
@@wurdofwizdumb1928 but they do it with a smaller capital
To be fair he hasn't averaged anything close to that for a while. If you compare BRK.A to VTI since 2002 & dollar cost average a fixed amount into it every month at Portfolio Visualizer Berkshire barely beats the broader US market. The problem is Buffett has too much money to manage, which is hurting his returns, it's simply not worth his time to invest in a fast growing $500 million dollar stock when he has hundreds of billions of dollars to invest, even if that investment went up 500% over 5 years it would barely even scratch his ROI even if Berkshire bought up the entire thing. This is why a lot of funds stop taking on new investors after a certain point.
@@wurdofwizdumb1928 dude they have many different funds and some managed to outperform.
@@maxaffe3195 thats the point. If you have many funds some of them will outperform. Thats doesnt mean theyre good, just that they have lots of funds.
Only if I had more time to play around in the market, retirement is around the corner and my primary concern is how to grow my reserve of $320k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains, I'm having serious anxiety.
I believe you should contact a portfolio manager, someone who was active before to the 2008 crisis and other similar crashes; that's your greatest chance for profit and survival through this recession.
I agree with you Luca, I have been pretty much on the sideline observing for awhile, figuring out the best strategy to get in, until I came by a coach, commended by a pundit on Reddit, reluctant at first but I went ahead and reached the coach, long story short, it's over 3years+ and I've made over 1.6million simply following the guidance of my coach.
@@drew6651 My 401k has lost all it earned since the beginning of 2020. I wouldn't mind checking into the adviser who assists you; I feel that earning more is the greatest method to overcome the recession and inflation.
The coach that guides me is Jane Irene Sawyer, it shouldn't be a hassle finding her, she's quite known among her peers, so just search her name.
Sell all you have, move to a country like India or Vietnam and live rest of your life in peace and luxury.
"Investing is simple, but not easy." Warren Buffett
Old school mind wins vs new school. Still sharp mind for his age. Legend!
it's hard to teach a new cat old tricks!
You’re as passionate as Mr Buffett when it comes to share buybacks and shady financial reports 😁. Excellent video!
I think the goverment is trying to discourage the bad buybacks, ie. buyback with borrowed money to boast EPS, and buyback at over-valued prices. Buffet's buybacks are at under-value prices, and with cash on hand.
@@EarlOSandwich Yes, I meant to say that the poicatician should crack down only the abuse of buybacks.
Stock buybacks are just "legal" stock price manipulation, which should go back to illegal.
I recently purchased some ETFs. Saving for a market fall is also a bad idea. There are different perspectives on recessions and depressions; we cannot always expect significant rewards; and taking risks is preferable to doing nothing. The bottom line is that by diversifying your portfolio and making sensible judgments, you will accomplish exceptional outcomes. In 2022, my portfolio returned $608,500.
You’re right! The current market might give opportunities to maximize profi.t, but in order to execute such effective transactions, you must be a skilled practitioner
@Lloyd Bernard wow! who is this individual guiding you? I lost over $9000 just last week, so I’m in dire need of a financial-planner.
@Lloyd Bernard This is useful information; I copied her whole name and pasted it into my browser; her website appeared immediately, and her qualifications are excellent; thank you for sharing.
BALONEY!
I began accumulating wealth when I started following up my investment properly, The value of expert mentorship cannot be overstated. Without proper mentoring, people tend to make mistakes and loose money. This is why I prefer to invest with Juliann Hart because her methods are unique and extremely profitable-
Overtime I have come across people earning consistent returns with the assistance of a professional manager but how do I find one? This is something that piques my interest-
I invest with Juliann Hart. She's the best when it comes to making gains in the financial market she's well accredited and proficient to help beginners through managing your investments-
Her investing strategy and risk management is well structured. She also offer copytrading
Okay, how do I contact her for advice on investment recommendation?-
Warren Buffet is the Michael Jordan of Investing. GOAT.
Some might argue He's Lebron with the longevity. When others retire...He's still ballin out.
@@jaylenbrownfan2112 Fair point
I'm 58, Joseph. It makes you think when you realise WB has averaged almost 20% over one's entire life.
I'm trying to practice the art of doing nothing, and it's the hardest thing when it comes to investing to do I feel. I see something drop big time that I like more than something else I'm holding, I'll rotate out into the new company. I beat the S&P 500 last year by around 6%, and I take that as a win. But I need to follow in his mindset of holding things more long term. Something runs up quickly, sit on it instead of just moving out of it.
Great episode Joseph. I've definitely been balancing out my portfolio through this downturn. Adding a lot more compounders and getting away from companies that are massively diluting.
The difference is: Buffet earns money with his investments. Wood earns money from her followers. She does not need to care if her investments make profit. She only needs to sell her story.
Qualtrim portfolio tracker and Insights are fantastic. Finally decided to try it, figure out how to input data, and love it. Less difficult than I assumed. Thank you for your service sir.
Loved this episode! One of my favourite! Thank you!!
May I suggest maybe to try and do a "focus" video on his "sells?buys restrospective? The more Buffer the merrier x)
Thank you as usual! Lovin' the process!
Hi Joseph, thank you for your wonderful analysis! Really insightful. You really lived up to the expectation you made at the start to translate the Buffet statements.
This was a very educating video, thanks a lot, I watched it several times.
Some gold in here, nice one Joseph.Great point on the 90:10 ratio of people looking at the price of a stock vs. researching it.
Joel Greenblatt compounded ~40% for 20 years multiplying +800 times his client's money. The thing about Buffet is that he manages hundreds of billions so of course he can't get mind blowing returns now but I'm sure he would compound+40% if he only had a couple of billions to manage
He did mention that he can easily make 50%+ a year given if he only had a few million to manage in one of Berkshire’s annual shareholder meeting quite a few years back
Excellent show... thanks for sharing your insights and knowledge... Buffet is a great investor...
Class video, exactly right in everything your saying but the only thing is, it’s easier said than done! Keep up the good work appreciated 😊
Joseph, really like your videos and learn alot from your analysis. I would love to hear a deeper dive on share buybacks. This was an activity that was not legal until the 80's and I wonder about the overall impact to the economy they have caused. With so many executives looking quarter to quarter instead of focusing on long term success due to their stock based compensation, I wonder if they really had to find a way for that money to work if their results might be better. This is also money that could be invested into employee compensation and improving the talent pool of the company. Stock buybacks ignore all other stakeholders other than owners. Just a thought.
Outstanding job and analysis. Many thanks👏
What a great video. Thank you for this excelent work!
Buffet wins because he doesn't overpay, regardless of how good the company is he has a fair value, what he has estimated the intrinsic value to be and he doesn't pay over that value. "Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down" Warren Buffett
hi Joseph, do you hold and BRKB? if so, at what % level in which of your portfolios?
Appreciate your content and your approach to investing
Imagine for a moment that there’s an equity that’s as close to the risk profile as the U.S. Treasury Bond (i.e. a strong durable competitive advantage), but with a much higher coupon rate. That’s what Buffet is looking for!
Great video! Thank you Joseph
does qualtrim cover stocks outside the US?
Delightful episode!
The fact Renaissance Technologies next levels Berkshire’s profits by almost 40% is insane.
Best take on the shareholder letter I've seen. Interesting that Berkshire doesn't return cash to shareholders - breaking their own rules!
Good for you Joseph, maybe you will be the next WB; I agree with you 100%...Thanks for doing this.
Superb video, greetings from Malaysia
Great videos. Very informative and helpful. Keep it up.
Thank you Joe, as always great market and investing insights! ... Love researching with Qualtrim but it needs search filters, are those coming?
Great seeing you learn more Joseph. Work on valuations and you will be a decent investor. You find great companies but buy them at elevated prices have some patience. After all the stock market is a mechanism to movie money from impatient to the patient. Have a good night.
This was a good call to action for me, I've been slowly trimming away any holdings that aren't represented excellently but now I want to redouble my efforts, thanks Joseph!
Thank you for emphasing on the SBC through your videos...Yestereday I was looking at the Tyson Food financial statements and noted that they add SBC to the OCF calculation.
Does Qualtrim also analyse Australian stocks ?
Buybacks can be good or very bad, and this is one of many reasons Buffett must have great faith in the skill of the management of companies he invrsts in.
Great video, thanks from Portugal.
I think it all boils down to knowing the company you're investing in and that includes the people running the company and the company ethics they adhere to. Like himself, I think Buffet looks for trustworthiness in a company, both on the product they sell and the company management. Integrity is the operative quality Buffet is looking for. It's really common sense. Know your mark.
Were are you able to view what chamath, investment? Or are these just some investment he has spoken publicly on?
In the hedge fund world, there is the legendary Medallion Fund from Renaissance Technologies that has averaged 66 percent a year (before fees) for over thirty years with one tiny losing year.
You can't compare this to Buffett as Medallion is capped at 10 billion because they cannot find enough worthwhile quant edges to hold more money and the founder is worth only an estimated thirty billion.
Damn. This is truly one of the most comprehensively accurate analysis of the Wizard I've ever heard. Bravo.
My insights that I don’t hear discussed:
1) Buffet knows the value of investing in companies that sell addictive products. I include oil in this. Society’s addiction to fossil fuels.
2) Buying low is about buying when others are afraid to. Buffet knows how to be a very special kind of sentiment investor. He does it not by looking at fear and greed indices or how companies are being talked about in the news; instead he is able to read sentiment off financial statements and stock prices. To give a sense of what I mean: suppose a company has a decade long track record of slow and steady growth, but they’ve had a few relatively bad quarters and the stock is down. Buffet can be counted on to accurately discern whether the stock price is hurting more than the financial fundamentals. In other words, he understands companies and economies well enough to accurately gauge whether a warranted selloff is overdone.
This is one of your best videos, especially the stuff on his Dividends growing over time
Thats a good episode there.
thanks for trying to break through buffets' wide moat to understand his wide moat strategy
Great video Joseph!
Buffet’s performance can largely be explained by his exposure to risk factors such as value , and at times also to his use of leverage. He has some excellent advice , but his best advice is probably that most people are better off investing in a broad market index fund. Copying his investments or even his strategy as a whole simply won’t work for everyone as we all are investing with different life circumstances and different attitudes to risk which affects everyone’s ability to remain invested long term differently.
Stay the course friends!
As some who went to business school, it’s crazy to me that Warren Buffett’s mentality is what sets him apart when it’s his mentality is what’s taught in schools
Modern people would rather memes to simple wisdom
Great job
Buffet does benefit from being buffett in that others see what he buys and piles in after him thus raising his prices
Over the last several years, you've reposted clips from "financial experts" that were on you tube and tic tok. There was one guy (I don't remember who he was) who was blasting (mocking?) Buffet, and bragging about how the performance of his portfolio was blowing Buffet's (BRK) performance out of the water. Maybe you should do a few "where are they now" videos and revisit past clips.
Thanks for the great video!
There is only one grand father in value investing no matter how you see it. And we all know who he is 😀
Most of Warren's big gains came years ago, however, he has beaten the market over every rolling ten year period.
LITTLE KNOWN: Roughly half of Warren's outperformance has come from leveraging his insurance float.. something not available to individuals. However, without this leveraging he still would have made roughly 15 percent a year.
Large capital is the enemy of large outperformance and Warren correctly points out that it will not be possible for Berkshire Hathaway to continue beating the market by a huge margin, though Berkshire Hathaway will be safer.
I dont know why, but i can listen to you All day long 😊. Very good impact on me. Continue the good work
Joseph, could you please add the shares buy back graph on Qualtrim? That would be really helpful going through 2023.
There's already a shares outstanding graph on Qualtrim
Shares outsanding is actually a superior way to look at efficient buybacks.
If you just look at buyback amount, a company can issue 1 billion worth of shares, then "buy back" 1 billion, and the share count is actually flat, you did not benefit at all. But if they issue 500 million worth of shares and buy back 1 billion, you did benefit by a net 500 million of buybacks, and that's what's reflected on the shares outstanding graph.
So a simple way of looking at it is the shares outstanding. If that's going up, they're diluting, if it's going down, they're doing buybacks beyond the rate of dilution.
@JosephCarlson, you are the real young WB 😊
His stock portfolio is one thing. The stock price of Berkshire is another. That is based primarily on its performance. Buffett is a great capital allocator and manager which resulted in Berkshires phenomenal return. His stock portfolio does not beat the S&P 500 but Berkshire stock has up until the last fifteen years.
What’s missing is that in his early years of he did take a lot more risks on companies, it wasn’t until he first big hit that he ended up going conservative in his approach. Of course way back then there were nowhere near the amounts of companies there are now, so less companies less risk. I believe you need a mixture of high risk and highly profitable stocks nowadays in other to attempt to be wealthy. 🤷🏻♂️
Trustworthy managers in my opinion is one of his biggest criterion. Why I think he chose Paramount over Disney-Paramount’s management has already been overhauled and Bakish is solid and they clearly aren’t doing deceptive things to hit their earnings numbers, something that cannot be said about Disney
WB definitely GOAT of investing, but what happens to Berkshire when he's no longer with us?
Great video!! ❤
Hi Joseph.. just curious, why not just buy brk?
Because hes wise and hes patient!
Facts
What about his TSM buy / sell? Thx
check out Buffetts 13 F he buys and sells stocks every quarter. It's not uncommon.
Excellent analysis 👏
Aren’t these “investment returns” of Buffet based on the Berkshire stock price which sells Insurance products and has other streams of revenue?? If so that’s a bit misleading comparing find manager returns to a more diversified stock
No, because the insurance products and other products he sells are one of the investments we are watching the returns of
thx Joseph.
Thanks!
It’s easy, Warren said it himself. “Invest in good companies”
Thank you 🙏🏼
I'm not even a huge fan of you, but this video is wonderful, out of the park!
Terry smith was talking about high gross margins.
Hey Joseph, would like to know your opinion on American Water Works.
Greetings from germany
one of best youtube chanhel on stocks
You know what helps - being 90 years old and holding stocks for 20 years.
Nice analysis Joseph
Something that people forget is a company has to get back the money to shareholders and always has been the best by dividends BUT Buffet do prefer (And also do I) return through buybacks, which has the compound effect. That's the point.
Do you think Amazon gets a negative strike for not paying a dividend or being highly profitable for the business they are?
Doesn't buffet use internal leverage?
Joseph, you are absolutely right, no one can beat Warren's record.
inspirational - real one
I don’t know what he said or care I just clicked to say warren buffet said “your right because your facts are right” “in the long run the market is a weighing machine but in the short term a voting machine”-Benjamin Graham
Joseph when are you coming to the great state of Nebraska for an investor meeting?
i fell for ARK a while back. Bad move but i learned my lesson.
Great video!!! Buffett is the GOAT and it isn't even close.
Bravo!
Someone who actually respects what Warren Buffett has achieved
This definitely deserves a good like 🎉
didn't you said it is free for onw month? to join the Patreon, it is not, i tried
Always great to see Buffett on top! Joseph, what is your take on Renaissance Technologies as a contender? I know it's an institution, not a person, so it's not a fair comparison
they have many funds. are not transparent and then pick one that managed to outperform...
@@maxaffe3195 I dunno why you had to throw shade. I literally said Buffett is at the top but I wanted to throw this into the mix too
What I don’t understand in 18:30, why does he keep the coca cola shares, if he finds it to be the suboptimal investment for the reinvestment of the received dividends.
I don’t get why coca cola is the better place to have his money than the other stock he is buying with their dividend. I am guessing he wouldn’t buy coca cola shares (especially not in that amount), if he had to invest that money, they are worth today, now.
I hope someone understands what I want to say and can help me better understand.
Liked it!