Why I Spent $70,000 On This Stock
Вставка
- Опубліковано 6 лип 2024
- 🎉 4,500 Member Patreon: / josephcarlson
💵 Dividend Portfolio: click.linksynergy.com/deeplin...
🚀 Growth Portfolio: click.linksynergy.com/deeplin...
📈 Qualtrim Website: qualtrim.com/
00:00 Introduction
02:00 S&P Global Business Breakdown
17:24 S&P Global Financial Characteristics
23:08 FTC Lawsuit Against Amazon
Join the Patreon and get access to a Qualtrim, the stock analysis tool I use, a Discord community with over 4,000 members, and exclusive content: / josephcarlson
🎉 4,000+ Member Patreon: / josephcarlson
🚀 Growth Portfolio: click.linksynergy.com/deeplin...
💵 Dividend Portfolio: click.linksynergy.com/deeplin...
Joseph Carlson After Hours: / @josephcarlsonafterhours
Instagram: / joecarlsonshow
Twitter: / joecarlsonshow
My Favorite Investing Books: amzn.to/3KwyIhG
All the tech I used to make this video: amzn.to/4547DLk
Some of the links are affiliate links.
About Joseph Carlson:
I am not a professional investor and have never claimed to be. I'm an amateur investor sharing my experience of what I've learned, where I have had success, and where I've had failures. I share my thoughts on investing and performance with transparency. My approach and goal to investing is to buy high-quality long-term investments in world-class businesses that I call "compounders". I view my investments as businesses, not as stocks. Before creating content on UA-cam full time I worked as a senior-level programmer for 8 years. Over the years as a programmer, I compounded my knowledge of development. I take the same iterative learning approach to my study of investing. I study investing as a craft in the continual pursuit of being better. I will make mistakes in investment decisions from time to time. Results are not guaranteed. Please do not blindly follow me into any investments, and make sure your portfolio and investments are built around your specific income, risk tolerance, personality, and timeline, and overall circumstances. - Розваги
The Patreon: www.patreon.com/josephcarlson
Patreon includes:
🎥 Over 100 exclusive videos, and new ones every week.
🚀 Full access to Qualtrim.com, the stock analysis website I built from the ground up
📚 Transparent portfolio updates, with every buy and sell I do, as well as monthly one-pager updates.
💬 Access to the Joseph Carlson Show private discord community, with 4,500 members
Try it out with a risk-free trial!
45k right there. Lol nice plug
Is qualtrim also useable for European stock?
@@jelles4236 it's his Patreon which is where he gets the majority of his income from.
Ud do better with trading.
Stock market is on obvious sell you couldve easily made 20% on price action alone this past 2 weeks selling the index trading daily just using basic trendlines and not waste time researching companies for hours lmao and just plain price action and dollar fundamentals.
51 years old. I have $295,588.25 in my Fidelity retirement account. I cranked my contributions up to 35% and I do all the investing on my own. Fidelity just holds my ETFs/stocks. I made that change earlier this year. I'm hoping to end the rat race by 60 but it's looking more like 63-ish. I want to have $1.5M and bring in about $60k in dividends each year. Pedal to the floor! Thanks for the video. Great content.
Investors should exercise caution with their exposure and exercise caution when considering new investments, particularly during periods of inflation. It is advisable to seek guidance from a professional or trusted advisor in order to navigate this recession and achieve potential high yields.
I agree, having a portfolio-advisor for investing is genius! Not long ago amidst the pandemic crash in March 2020, I was really having investing nightmare prior touching base with a license portfolio-advisor. In a nutshell, i've accrued over $550k with the help of my advisor from an initial $120k investment thus far.
*@_Perez.esq1* I've been thinking about going that route. I have a lot of stocks that I have maintained, but they are beginning to lose value, so I'm not sure if I should hold onto them or sell them. I feel hiring your investment coach would make it easier to restructure my portfolio.
Camille Alicia Garcia, maintains an online presence. just make a simple search for her name online.
I greatly appreciate it. I'm fortunate to have come upon your message because investing greatly fascinates me. I'll look Camille up and send her a message. You've truly motivated me.
Time for another vici video, dividend hike, broke 30
Texas Roadhouse is about to set up very cheap again. Just had a dinner there. Very efficient management. Will be buying more🙌🏼
TXRH in a dip and I am not sure where the dip ends. Labor and food costs are a challenge now. Joseph holds TXRH, but I am not convinced. I do enjoy the restaurant though.
@@nellarlwhat companies convince you?
SPGI - but don't pay too much@@irelevant9114
I absolutely agree with you about S&P Global. What confuses me is its price volatility.
At the start of 2022. it's share price was approx 480. The low in 2022 was about 280. Since then it's gone back up to 425 and is now 365. At the start of June 2021, the share price was about 380, mid-way between its subsequent high and low -- and not too far from its current price. Taking that as the starting point, compared to the S&S 500, its subsequent high was higher than the S&P (about double the gain -- 20% to 10%), and its subsequent low was less than the S&P (about double the loss -- similar numbers). It's currently about 5% lower than the S&P relative to the starting point. Since it's such a consistent and stable compounder, why the excessive volatility?
I wuz thinking the same thang
It's because you're smarter than this tool. He lacks ethics and morality.
It’s a good business. But that doesn’t mean it’s not susceptible to irrational buying and selling. Fair value is about $300 (max). Joseph is very sensitive to the story of a company and doesn’t pay much attention to valuation. If he believes in it, he buys it. But eventhough it might be a good business and the stock price will do well for a while, sooner or later the stock will drop back to fair vakue or even crash lower. Like you pointed out: there might be much better prices to buy this if you want it.
@@Huamaru😂 somebody’s butthurt
Leverage and high valuation increase volatility
S&P Global is a great company! Thanks for sharing Joseph!
SPGI is good company. But i dont think the valuation justify their profit yet. I will wait before adding more.
It's also outside of my circle of competence for now.
Wall Street pitched so-called quality stocks with high profitability and low debt, as a kind of insurance against whatever the economy might throw at you. Quality stocks have underperformed the S&P500 this year, My $400k portfoIio is down by approximately 20 %, any recommendations to scale up my ROI before retirement will be highly appreciated.
The stock market rally is still in force, but the major indexes, sectors and especially leading stocks are prone to reversals. I recommend you seek the guidance a broker or financiaI adviisor
I agree, having a brokerage advisor for inveesting is genius! Not long ago amidst the pandemic crash in March 2020, I was really having inveesting nightmare prior touching base with a advisor. In a nutshell, i've accrued over $550k with the help of my advisor from an initial $120k investment thus far.
that's impressive!, I could really use the expertise of this advisors , my portfolio has been down bad....who’s the person guiding you
.My consultant is LEILA SIMOES PINTO She has since provide entry and exit points on the securities I focus on. You can look her up online if you care for supervision.
Thank you for this tip. it was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
Do you use S&P data for Qualtrim?
may I ask at what price u bought S&P global ?
Could you please share your average cost on your stocks? Or how many you have?
Awesome video with quality information as usual!
Joeseph, my one question is why the PE ratio of SPGI is so high right now compared to their historical average and compared to the market
it's because their operating margin has gone down as a result of a large acquisition. if you look at forward P/E instead it's only slightly above historic levels
@@cutiecatboy Thank you!
Hello Joseph, great content, I am really happy that I bumped into your channel, following for few months now.
Regarding S&P detailed analysis, I see overlap in some businesses with MSCI, for example data and indices. If I remember correctly, MSCI was (is?) on your list of candidates. Wonder if you already had a comparison of the two companies, and would be kind to share just a few key points, or key differences why (if?) you chose S&P, or why you (up to this point) have not chosen MSCI into your portfolio. Thank you in advance.
Hey man, respect for keeping things transparent. I know that can't be easy when the market is down. I appreciate your videos🙏
The market is literally up this year lol
The market is doing way too good and it is actually time to celebrate when it is down! You watch his video's right? WE NEED HUGE DISCOUNTS
@@notnoternexto I think he means the market is down after the intrest rate update, he is still learning things perhaps
Scamwankers gone wrong on his thread
I like both MCO and SPGI except forward PEs are a bit high. Will be patient for the price to come down and dollar cost averaging.
I will pick them up if the market crashes. They were low and expect them to go low again someday. I missed the low valuations, since I went in with Microsoft, Google, meta, Amazon (which was a great idea). Patients!
Agree SPGI seems well overvalued with a DCF of around $260 and high PE.
This video was much needed. Thank you Joseph.
What are your thoughts on O Realty? Almost cut in half and paying .25/share monthly divided.
Your description seems to be about Apple while the video is in regards to S&P, just a heads up. Great video!
Love these in depth analysis
I need more of these videos and great content! Please keep on good work ❤
Very spot on about amzn. And I'm liking spgi too. Thank you for making this video J. 👍
Please analyze NDAQ (NASDAQ)
NDAQ and ICE are both great LT holdings. They own the rails.
Thanks, good analysis on products and profitability. However, would be good to also elaborate on the balance sheet to get the full financial picture!
I really appreciate your videos and have to thank you for introducing me to the hidden champions Costco, Vici and now S&P Global. Keep up the great work!
Again a very good video. Bringing high value knowledge. Well done! Keep up the good work.
Love your channel. Do you share your full portfolio anywhere for your viewers?
Informative, thanks. I would love to hear your opinion on American Express. The PEG ratio is currently around 1 at the moment.
Always nice to see someone talking about something I'm looking into.
SPGI is such a strong, consistent compounding machine. Them, Moodys, Mastercard, Visa, a portfolio of just these 4 companies alone would perform very well in the long term! Awesome stuff Joe!
Well lets see how those nosebleed valuations stand up to a recession. These are high quality companies in that they have good business models. But price you pay matters. Mr Carlson has hitched his train firmly to quality. We’ll just have to wait and see if a portfolio of good businesses at lousy valuation performs well …
I for one can’t make much sense of buying S and P Global over lets say BRK.
My biggest regrets have always been sacrificing quality for valuation. Ive decided im not doing that anymore.
@@JosephCarlsonShow people that focus too hard on PE ratios miss out on the biggest opportunities.
I think its only fair if ROCE/ROIC is the single most important metric you should dedicate a deep dive video to it😌 It would be very helpful.
love ur videos, keep them coming
Great info about Amazon vs FTC.
What do you think of FICO?
Thanks for the video. Does SPGI's Market Intelligence generate data, or do they mostly aggregate data from third parties and apply analysis to it? I'm asking because, from the 10-K:
"Many of our suppliers are also our competitors, and they could change the terms of the data and products that they supply to us in order to gain competitive advantage against us, which could materially harm our business."
"We utilize certain information and data provided by third-party sources in a variety of ways, including information gathered by market participants and large volumes of data from certain stock exchanges around the world"
Actually, i think the best time to buy stocks is when the markets are down, lately every week or two we see a day when everything is down, just build up your buying power until a good day to go shopping, and stick with stocks that are predictable ...My Financial advisor Lisa Rosa Cavanagh had my $120k invested in these picks(high growth) ,NVR,SEB AMZN ,DOW-J, AAPL, NYSE,LISP.SW, NASDAQ, TSLA, I've gotten 86% return so far this year, I'll keep holding to see the outcome
This is really impressive I like the diversity, I've been looking into NVR just might get it
I googled the lady you mentioned, and left a mail after going through her credentials. I'm willing to make consultations to improve my portfolio
Consistently investing in quality dividend paying companies over the long term is a relatively easy strategy to create generational wealth
Great show today. Thanks!
Hey Joseph, I had notice Ulta on your watchlist and dip-finder. With share price being crushed with ‘negative retail sentiment’, could you give your updated thoughts on this company during Friday’s video? I hope one day it makes it into one of your portfolio’s. Thanks!
I'm confused with the Gain/Return vs the Value of each holding. For example, it says your Costco holding is up 99.29% or +$11,481.58 but the value is $48,093.20. Wouldn't the value be closer to $23,000 if your gains are 2x?
Same
he said he have added throughout the years, so it will always lower your %gain
M1 & it's time weighted return.
What do you think about Fair Issac ?
What's happened to Texas Roadkill & VICI ?
I added this one to my watchlist from your channel, this video has great information.
Great content!!
What mic do you use? You sound so good and clear
Great video man thanks 🙏
Could you break down your position in VICI i am very interested in REITs and Realty Income (O) seems to be down hard curious to hear your thoughts!
Does anyone think nextera energy NEE or NEP is a very strong buy right now? Especially for dividend growth? I am very tempted to invest but I don't want to lose money
As for why Canada is going more passive ETFs is because of Wealthsimple that’s a free brokerage for Canadian stocks and ETFs. They only charge fees for buying Foreign stocks 1.5% for selling or buying. Great Breakdown Joseph looks like a wonderful business to me.
I love this video. SPGI was I was looking
Hey Joseph can you revisit some of your other positions next I know vici just had a hike but I’m more curious what your thoughts are with Texas road house as it continues to dip below 100$ a share
Quality vid.
Joseph - just to correct you, S&P did not create SCHD. Charles Schwab did as the name implies. Schwab applies their methodology to the S&P-owned Dow US Dividend 100 index, which explains why the ETF’s holding mix is not exactly same as the actual underlying index licensed from S&P.
From Schwabs website: "The fund’s goal is to track as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the total return of the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100™ Index."
They apply no unique methodology in and of themselves. They simply track the index that S&P Global created, as closely as possible.
@@JosephCarlsonShow Huh, I was about to write a comment rebutting you but after checking, I think you are completely correct. SCHD is actually passively managed in the sense that it tries to mimic the Dow US Dividend 100 index. All those screening rules (no more than 4% weight, 10 years of dividend payments, etc.) are directly from Dow's index. Schwab writes that their goal is to have >95% correlation with the Dow index. They can deviate slightly from the index (no more than 10%), but for all practical purposes, it is a passive index fund. TIL!
@@JosephCarlsonShow I looked into it more, and you’re right that the methodology I was referring to is applied at the index level by S&P. However, it’s still misleading to state that SCHD was created by S&P. Schwab owns the brand and invests at least 90% of funds of funds according to the index which explains why there is still a slight difference in weightings & composition across the ETF and the index.
As an owner of O (reality corp) would you mind discussing its decline and your opinion on it next vid?
❤please do more in-depth review!
SPGi seems overvalued. I looked at its intrinsic value estimate. What do you think @Joseph?
2nd time watching this video.. excellent explanation.. thank-you!
Love the analysis
SPGI is a good business, but they have no future growth which matches their overpriced earnings. They aren't going to grow at a high rate, they'll continue at their 2-3% YoY. But they are trading at 50X earnings. This makes them terribly overvalued. I'll stay away and prefer something not so expensive and with greater growth prospects. Thanks for the lesson.
valuation matters too, although it's a high quality business.
management expects 7% - 9% organic revenue growth, and low to mid teens EPS growth over the next few years. This is is far from a slow growing business. Their forward P/E is also 27.6x. I'm not saying it's low, just that backward looking valuation metrics don't show you the full picture
Minha maior posição é Realty Income.
How does AI impact their business in next 5 years I think that’s relevant for a data company
That's a good point
can I ask is there a reason you did not buy S&P global previously but now?
thanks
keep up the good work!
The PE ratio for SPGI is over 50! I'm sitting outta this one. Price way too high!
Damn that’s a revolutionary way to review companies, just look at PE ratio and decide if it’s worth it or not haha who would have thought
The p/e is artificially inflated due to recent acquisition. The forward p/e is just over 20, in line with the broader market but at a far higher quality
@@irelevant9114 ok. Go ahead and buy it then,... that's right I didn't think so.
@@pazuzuxx I did. See you in a few years
@@irelevant9114 dude! It's going back to sub $300. Then you buy
I appreciate your transparency. I also enjoyed seeing your dividend payments grow, but you don't show this much anymore. Am I missing this part of the video or have you just gotten away from showing it?
He now knows dividends are irrelevant. You can tell by his shift in holdings over time. The focus is total return, as it should be.
Oh Joseph! My portfolio is heading south this past month, actually down for year. But I am hanging on to your advice and watching my dividend go up slowly, but up. It is difficult to keep adding money to the portfolio each month and watching it evaporate away, but my passive income does continue to go up.
You're watching the channel of a new investor that's never even been through a major correction lol. His portfolio is a very high risk, and he also deletes my comments when I call out his BS.
Same here. Stay strong and hold! 🙏🏻
What are you holding?
METC,OBDC,EFC,ARR,MO,AGNC,VZ,TSLX,VICI,TSLX&MAIN. They have all recovered now and I am back up for year.
As always, your video are fair and transparent, really great help for me only as a starting point on company's research... my only concern is the company is very costly compared to some other Value stock, enjoy your investment
Anti discounting measures etc. are indeed not illegal in the market. But they might be illegal if you *ARE* the market. Yes Amazon is a company but it's also a common marketplace (similar to a utility or public transport etc.).
And as a company you are indeed free to do a lot of things, but once you get so big you become the defacto marketplace itself, then you will be more heavily scrutinised and regulated.
is it tho? what does amazon have to do with customers choosing amazon over temu, aliexpress, ebay, craiglist, facebook marketplace ? what you are saying just doesn't make sense.
@@teddi5414 It does, by growing and growing and growing at some point a company becomes more of a defacto standard for something (akin to a utility) and regulation should kick in to prevent said company from abusing it's dominant position.
Because at the end of the day the vast majority of companies can't behave properly and will adversely affect their customers one way or another, if given the chance.
Dear Joseph, They should be praising and rewarding Amazon....(I would write more but it got erased) thanks for your time and efforts!!!
Great company, but not soo profitable. Very involved in many low margins industry. Competing basically against everybody. It's the less valuable than Google, Apple and Microsoft, which makes a lot of sense to me
Unless we want to live in corporate dystopia (if what we got is not enough) we need someone balancing out corporations for the benefit of the community.
Amazon is known for copying best sellers under their own brands and undercutting or even banning who they were copying in the first place
Like your details
Thank you for the video, Joseph. I have been thinking to add SPGI to my profilio.
I’m an indexer but what happens once everything is passive? Active funds are the ones that determine passive investment
I buy Amazon brand vitamins and its just as good as the name brands if not better, and I save 40 to 50% compared to buying other brands.
I love your critical thinking and analysis
Hell breaks the price level of the major cryptocurrencies as they plunge, after just almost a day of pump in price and may bankruptcies follow after. many of us keep forgetting that crypto is obviously exposed to a volatile market environment, although it inevitable that crypto will rise again (new investors keep turning to crypto as an investment location) although a seasoned trader would personally agree . An experienced trader earns a lot regardless of the price of cryptocurrencies and also a price drop is equally an opportunity to acquire more assets from profitable trading, with Godfrey Witty I will say trading has been smooth for me. I started at 1.5 BTC and raised over 6.5 BTC in just three weeks using her trading strategies.
**He is @Godfreywitty VlA T e l e g r a m s
@Godfreywitty >> VlA TE L E G R AM
Expert Godfrey Witty taught me how to trade and recommended some good exchange with lesser fees. so yes if you are in for gains not just holding. i'd highly recommend him for advise and guide.!
His training program has been insightful, and I must say, I'm most honored to have been part and a full-time beneficiary of his daily signals. I have been growing & have been able to increase my portfolio from 1.5BTC to more than 4.5BTC with his daily signals..^
Best signal provider in the market. Knowledgeable, level headed (no loss like some other traders who recently jumped on the bandwagon).
Problem is they dont really pay dividends.
Like most youtubers, he only shares his success stories, but not his losses
SPGI is amazing company and a dividend king. I'm long on them 📈
@@xtrash1ove I don't think you understand what a dividend king is , a company that raises their dividend annually and has done so over 50 years is classed as one . S&p Global's 3 year average dividend growth is 12% compared to a higher yielding dividend king stock like coca cola which has a 3% increase in 3 year average.
Long term a S&P Global stock portfolio value will be much greater than a coca cola & their dividend too as the dividend gets increased at a higher rate. (Just for example coca cola is a great company too )
Loving your content mate, keep it up.
Thanks for not including fire emojis or your pictures with 😮 expressions on the thumbnail.
Helps us take you seriously.
Glad to have found your channel.
Cheers
Pls make one for VISA
Can I ask where the seventy thousand came from. You weren't just holding seventy thousand cash. Did you add money or sell something else so you could buy it.
Good question. He probably got the money from Qualtrim sales
UA-cam Adsense and Patreon revenue. You and me are paying for his investments by watching his videos. It's a pretty simple process and it's actually genius
People are listing off my income streams. But to be more specific. I sold a lot of companies to put the money into the holding. I sold Nike, ester lauder, Home Depot, and a few more stocks to raise capital for it.
I also am glad that I found your channel and have the greatest respect for the transparency with which you show your investment strategy./Lars
Lena Khan’s circular reasoning. Amazon is a monopoly because it’s a monopolist.
PE is at 51 when the average is around 30!
Why do you like SP global more than MasterCard?
I don’t understand the part where SPGI can offer cheaper debt even if a competitor would do it for free. Can someone explain?
A split of Amazon is unlikely. However a split of Amazon would be good for shareholders.
I'm interested in your valuation ideas. You say it's okay to buy expensive looking companies, for ROCE reasons. The return will be high anyway if it's a great compounder. But getting a company at a 20 % lower price always leads to 20 % higher return. Do you just ignore that and say you don't have a chrystal ball? I'm like you, I like to be fully invested. Maybe buying "expensive" companies is an excuse to get be fully invested?
Seller exclusivity makes sense up to a point assuming you don't remove all competition then Amazon ca set prices as they wish. FORCING sellers to use Amazon fulfillment which is more expensive than others is an abuse of power regardless of how you take it. It's one think for seller to negociate exclusivity on delivery to lower total costs, and a totally different thing for a "marketplace" to colude with a truck company so that only they are allowed in their parking lot.
You mentioned PWL capital and I remembered that Ben Felix (another finance youtuber) works for the same company
My concern here would be that companies will store data on the blockchain in years to come.
S&P global is a combination of Moody’s & MSCI Inc and these 2 belong to the best companies in the world.
Apart from the bank where can I grow a good amount of money, I have a strong feeling they are ripping me off.
I'm curious about how Mr. Carlson interprets Home Depot's recent dip and high debt to equity. I'm not sure myself but it shows up in the dip finder lately.
Better to trade the swings of good companies, not just ride their rollercoaster rides. Take profits and buy back in when they are on a downswing. Rinse & repeat.
If you’re going to criticize Joseph get your facts right. S&P Global is expected to earn $12.51 this year and $14.43 next. That’s 15% growth. Based on its current price of $364 that’s a pe of 29 and forward pe of 25. Reasonable value. It’s a steady long term grower. Not a high flyer.
Joseph why not split the 70k and buy Mooney as well? Own both
Joseph!
Well lets see how those nosebleed valuations stand up to a recession. These are high quality companies in that they have good business models. But price you pay matters. Mr Carlson has hitched his train firmly to quality. We’ll just have to wait and see if a portfolio of good businesses at lousy valuation performs well …
I for one can’t make much sense of buying S and P Global over lets say BRK.
Honestly the search results having ads bit sound slike theyre trying to set up precedent to go after others. She's playing the long game and setting up the chess board to tak everyone down.
Could Amazon use it's wealth and influence to find a less-than-stellar prosecutor to "handle" it's own antitrust case, which only winds up creating an easy hurdle for the company to navigate for the next 10 years or so?