Super Investors Portfolio Update
Вставка
- Опубліковано 13 лип 2024
- 🎉 4,000+ Member Patreon: / josephcarlson
🚀 Growth Portfolio: click.linksynergy.com/deeplin...
💵 Dividend Portfolio: click.linksynergy.com/deeplin...
00:00 Introduction
02:55 Chuck Akre
08:59 Chris Hohn
12:55 Terry Smith
20:00 Josh Tarasoff
22:57 Michael Burry
27:41 Pat Dorsey
29:09 Howard Marks
31:14 Seth Klarman
32:54 Thomas Russo
34:24 Mohnish Pabrai
QUALTRIM.COM & PATREON (Includes free trial)
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
Join Here: / josephcarlson
The Patreon Membership includes Qualtrim.com, membership to a private discord community, and hundreds of exclusive episodes.
📚 My favorite Investing Books: amzn.to/3KwyIhG
📷 All the tech I use to record videos: www.amazon.com/shop/josephcar...
SOCIAL MEDIA
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
🎥 More free content: / @josephcarlsonshow
🐦 I post random thoughts on Twitter too: / joecarlsonshow
DISCLAIMER
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
I am not a professional investor and have never claimed to be. I'm an amateur investor sharing my experience of what I've learned, where I have had success, and where I've had failures. I share my thoughts on investing and performance with transparency. My approach and goal to investing is to buy high-quality long-term investments in world-class businesses that I call "compounders". I view my investments as businesses, not as stocks. Before creating content on UA-cam full time I worked as a senior-level programmer for 8 years. Over the years as a programmer, I compounded my knowledge of development. I take the same iterative learning approach to my study of investing. I study investing as a craft in the continual pursuit of being better. I will make mistakes in investment decisions from time to time. Results are not guaranteed. Please do not blindly follow me into any investments, and make sure your portfolio and investments are built around your specific income, risk tolerance, personality, timeline, and overall circumstances.
If you want to see part 2 of this video, make sure you're subscribed.
Pro tip: If you want to make sure you get notifications be sure to use the bell icon notification. That way you get notification directly to your phone rather than relying on the UA-cam algorithm!
Would love your opinion on the arm ipo next month. They design almost all the chips in existence and collect licensing fees from them. Imo this fits into your compounding and monopolistic category to warrant a position in your portfolio
I'd there a way to block all comments that use a certain term? You have a ton of bots but It'd be an easy fix if UA-cam gave you that option.
@@druiz012 usually filtering to most recent is the only way sadly
Just got to 100 shares of vici can't wait till they raise div next month
🍔
I began my investment journey at the age of 38, primarily through hard work and dedication. Now at the age of 42, I am thrilled to share that my passive income exceeded $100k in a single month for the first time. This success reinforces the importance of the advice mentioned earlier. It is not about achieving quick wealth, but rather ensuring long-term financial prosperity
Achieving significant returns isn't about volatile stocks; it's about effectively balancing risk and reward. Proper position sizing and leveraging your advantage repeatedly are essential, whether you're a long-term investor or a day trader.
Certainly, many underestimate advisors until emotions lead to losses. A few summers ago, during a tough divorce, I sought a licensed advisor who, through diligent work, boosted my business from $190k to around $720k despite inflation.
wow that’s stirring! Do you mind connecting me to your advisor please. I desperately need one to diversified my portfolio.
The Adviser I'm in touch with is *'Jude Ryan McDonough'* , he works with Merrill, Pierce, Smith incorporated and interviewed on CNBC Television. You can use something else. for me her strategy works hence my result. He provides entry and exit point for the securities I focus on.
Thanks, I just googled him I'm really impressed with his credentials. I reached out to him since I need all the assistance I can get.
I'm seeing rotations out of tech and into value, selling 100% of AMZN and adding PG is recession planning IMO.
What will be the next catalyst for a recession?
Yeah I tend to agree with you. Tech recovered a lot very quickly this year, and a lot of value stocks are still lagging
Lmao good luck
I just sold a property in Portland and I'm thinking to put the cash in stocks, I know everyone is saying its ripe enough, but Is this a good time to buy stocks? How long until a full recovery? How are other people in the same market raking in over $200k gains with months, I'm really just confused at this point.
I agree. Based on personal experience working with an investment advlsor, I currently have $985k in a well-diversified portfollo that has experienced exponential growth. It's not only about having money to invest in st0cks, but you also need to be knowledgeable, persistent, and have strong hands to back it up.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one
There are a lot of independent advisors you might look into. But i work with Viviana Marisa Coelho and I have been working together for nearly four years, and she is excellent. You could proceed with her if she satisfies your discretion. I endorse her.
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
Thermo fischer is not a health care company lol. They essentially create machines used in chemistry & biology labs and more importantly they provide (for lack of a better word) a metric fuckton of reagents. Just for a simple example when college chemistry labs order 12 Molar Hydrochloric acid, I bet almost all of them go through thermo fischer.
I discovered your channel about 2 months ago and you’ve quickly become my favorite content creator. Thanks for all your videos
Always love these quarterly updates on the super investors, thanks.
On Terry Smith’s exit from Intuit, it’s way too harsh to state he hasn’t done his due diligence! Stock based comp. Is only one of the reasons he disclosed for exiting which also included management engagement with investors and capital allocation/ valuation of recent acquisitions.
Markel is like Berkshire . It has three engines, one is the insurance but it also owns private businesses outside the insurance area (
and it also has a substantial listed equity portfolio. Markel is known as a baby Berkshire.
Terry Smith on INTU: Maybe the consistent reduction (from 65% to 14%) in ROIC was a reason for selling.
Thanks for the summary video. Interesting to see two super investors buying into Garrett Motion - probably worth studying the business to understand what value they find in it.
Spot on analysis. Can’t believe I didn’t come across your channel before. Spot on with the good and poor moves on the high profile portfolios especially on PG.
I like your content, Joseph. Thank you.
We have complete different style of investing, but I love your content! I learn so much!
Sorry Joseph but you are wrong on Terry Smith and Amazon, he sold on Q2 not Q1 and so possibly at the top of valuation if it was towards the end of Q2
He cited the exact reaons that he sold the stock was because they said in the Q1 earnings call that they were pushing into physical grocery. Not logical for him to hear that reason and then wait and sell only late in the quarter. I think very unlikely he waited until very late in the quarter to sell.
I Love both channels Congratulations from switzerland
I agree with your takes on Terry Smith, seeing the moves made me wonder however if he's positioning his portfolio more defensive for fears of an upcoming recession. That for me would make selling Amazon and buying PG make sense.
Thanks Joseph love from Toronto, really appreciate these videos !!! Coming from a Canadian only into usd equities
I have had my eyes in AMR and it isn't just a "coal company". It has a great balance sheet and it's undervalued.
Cool
AMR does high share dilutions! Be mindful! 49% share dilution last year alone!
So… it’s a just coal company with a good balance sheet
Coal just dirty coal
@@Aotearoa-NZL Just note that AMR produces met coal used for steel production, not thermal coal for energy consumption. The latter is more associated with pollution and condemned by institutions. But renewable energy infrastructure requires huge steel input, and right now there are no great alternatives for steel production than using met coal. Plus the quality of the met coal matters, and AMR + HCC have very high quality met coal, as do Australian met coal producers. Coal in countries like China/Mongolia doesn't have the same premium grades needed for the best steel.
About Howard. IDK about him, but on oil and energy, THere are rumbles of russian oil and gas fields starting to break from lack of maitenance. Meaning this year when the permafrost deep freezes again, Russia may lose major portions of their exports leaving a wide gap n the market driving up prices. I have been buying all year banking on this. So far i am doing well.
Thesis. If you have 9/10th of the fuel it takes to get to work, you will pay whatever it costs for that last 10th to get to work. meaning any shortage drives the whole 10/10ths.
Buy good company
At fair price
Do nothing
Do nothing ....for 70 years
Great content 👍🏻
Unique content. Keep it coming man.
Love this video every time it comes out!!
Great video Joseph. My take away is that I’m putting Mastercard and Markel on my watchlist. Seems like they are great companies. 👍👍💯
A lot of the Howard marks' positions are likely hedges to big trades of these companies bonds, I wouldn't read too much into them without knowing the full trade
Brookfield btw is my biggest position, high quality compounder in basically an oligopoly industry trading at 12x~ cashflow. The corporate structure is difficult to understand but they put out a lot of info for investors every quarter which helps a lot!
You need to cover Constellation Software! You will fall in love with this one.
It’s going to take longer than 6mo to say a buy/sell was a mistake. Pretty much any buy in this market is a mistake if you ask me. Take the free 5% tbill and wait a few months.
“You are neither wrong nor right because the market says so. Your right because your reasoning and facts are right” - Graham
Thanks for these videos - I like the super investor series.
Do you have any thoughts on “arm” ipo’ing most likely next month? They design the iphone chips and have a fk ton of business with amazon and samsung. The patriot brit in me wants to buy some but know that when ipos launch they usually dip
Hi. Good information. However, would be good if you minimized your picture once you start showing tabulated details because most details get blocked due to the picture.
These are my favorite videos of yours
$AMR is a great coal company. Importantly, it produces metallurgical coal, a key input for steel. This is distinct from the coal used to create power/heating, thermal coal. Thermal coal is more prone to the ESG risks companies/governments are paying more attention to. But we do not have many great alternatives to using met coal for steel production.
It is extremely cheap and buying back some 20% of its float a year going forward. Don't bother looking at its price action prior to Covid, as many of these coal companies nearly went bankrupt or had totally different management. You have to consider the underlying commodity (met coal) outlook, quality of its assets, and management. AMR consistently tells its shareholders it sees no better acquisition target than its own shares.
👍Insightful
working hard Joseph, keep at it
I think one the coal companies of pabrai announced major buybacks. So i think it's a simliar play to your analysis of dollar general
Always have to love what smart money moves are being made, not to copy them, but point you in the right direction...
Great video my man - I agree, invest in what you know 👍
Thx for contents
Loved this video
Would have been nice if you would have compared each to the S&P 500 returns
What isn't mentioned is that Akre bought the majority of the MA-position all the way back in 2010-2012, when the stock price was at $20-40. They wouldn't go and buy 4M shares tomorrow at $400.
One could mention why they don’t sell, which very often is simply due to the cap gains taxes they would have to pay.
Monish and Klarman are quite similar. They are old value investors. They buy trash and shift fast if value does not materialize.
What is your thoughts on BLK (black rock)? Is it a good compounder?
Notional value of an options trade is the underlying value of the puts that Burry has bought.
To keep it simple if the notional value of an options trade is $1M and you went out to the Jan 2024 contract a the $445 strike is currently $16/contract that represents 100 shares.
Divide $1M/$445 = 2,250/100 he would need to purchase 23 contracts to get to the notional value of $1M
$16*100*23=$36800 to make the trade. Now just extrapolate that out to $1.5B
Love this series
Been waiting for this season again
Let’s go!
Joseph; does your software (Qualtrim) work for norwegian stocks?
Hi great content! Which platform are you using in this video?
Great review! Thanks.
Why are you saying that Terry Smith missed those AMZN gains? He sold at Q2 2023, which means that he could’ve sold by latest 30th of June, and earliest 1st of April, when the price reached $130 during that time.
You’re saying that he sold at Q1 2023, which he didn’t.
Also the exact timing of the trades is not disclosed.
Thanks Mate, where do you see their portfolio?
Dataroma
I have invested on presale, we will see I am also very confident this will be easiest 100x.
How come the reported price, always be real close to the current price, on the stocks the investers own? is it because they are doing call options
Can someone explain his point about Burry’s short position being smaller than 1.6B. Thanks
Well, first MB only has about $100M assets under management, so he's a relatively small fish compared to the other investors discussed here. He definitely didn't spend billions on options.
The 1.6B number is the entire (current) value of shares that his options control, i.e.2 million for each position. That would be assuming the S&P goes to zero, which I think we all agree won't happen.
He could also have bought PUTs, tweeted "SELL" in the hope to trigger a small sell stampede and then sold the PUTs hours, or days later for a quick profit. But as a reputable trader he wouldn't do that.
We have been on a recession since the beginning of 2022, but big media and governments all over the world didn’t want to admit it. We need to be wise and use our brains. Knowledge is power and I’d like all the family to be powerful! Just purchased some AM
Michael Bury definitely a mod on WSB
very mixed bag this quarter.... a year ago you had all 10 buying Microsoft and google... now everyone doing their own thing. very interesting. thanks for the content!
Where can I see this holdings information that you were referencing in the video?
Google
DataRoma just Google it and it will show up
According to IBD it’s true he’s is shorting,the SPY and QQQ.
I don T understand Why They have the same reported buy price
PG pays dividends. That's the main reason with Terry I guess. Good change imho.
Maybe he is expecting recession?
Does anyone know what Micahel Burry and Monhish Pabrais investment record is?
I think Terry Smith invested in PG instead of MA because of the Beta: 0.41 for PG and 1.2 for MA. In other words, he fears a big downswing in the market in the next couple of quarters.
I love your content! and your lamp.. what is it?
Temu
Amazon product: a.co/d/dGlbhKs
Michael Burry has a thick neck compared to the other investors. It's like comparing the big hydroflask water bottles to the small ones.
Best utility so far in whole crypto space
Whenever Joseph mentions Pat Dorsey, I pause the video, grab my s'mores and get ready for the roast
Looks to me like Pabrai has no clue what to do. I remember him buying into Alibaba, talking them up and then selling. He also talks up buy and hold, but does the opposite.
He Sold for Tax harvestig and bought tencent/prosus.
The Resurrection of AI has Arrived... shorts fleeing in droves.? * SOUN Rising 24 % while * NVDA Up 7 %. We will see if grows stronger this week. Thumbs Up Video / Thanks.
Why do you think exiting CRM was a good decision?
On Terry Smith's decision to sell Intuit: Terry has explained that he didn't sell it as a matter of principle because of the stock-based compensation or the shady accounting/reporting, but rather because Intuit's management used this measure of earnings growth to come up with a fair price to pay for the acquisition of Mailchimp (which btw doesn't fit very well into Intuit's business in the first place. Intuit basically started believing their own bullshit and MASSIVELY overpaid for Mailchimp which included 10 million shares of Intuit. Terry saw how the business was being run by morons and decided he didn't want to be a part of it.
Intuit has been a great business story in accounting software but that's in the past now. The shareholders who owned the stock have captured all those returns. Today's intuit is a portfolio of great businesses diluted by terrible capital allocation decisions and stock based comp issues. For people who like the accounting/payroll technology side better off looking at name's like Sage, Paychex, H&R Block, and ADP.
I think Terry is wrong, Dev Kantesaria is right on this one. Intuit is great. And since he sold the stock has outperformd his fund by a giant margin. The Free Cash Flow growth per share of the company is tremendous. Nobody seems to like Intuit, but I'm fine with that. I'll enjoy my 30% gains in it so far.
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours You are probably thinking on a different time scale than Terry, which is fine. Decisions that businesses' management make on how to allocate capital has big consequences in the long term, and taking them seriously is essential to run a large fund. Good luck on your investments.
26:05 Sell Sell Buy Buy Buy Sell Sell Buy 😂😂
Li Lu exited his position in Micron, which means he is probably sitting on a ton of cash though? Or maybe he bought something outside of USA? I wonder if he prefers to have some money waiting for better bargains.
Can anyone explain to me what happened with Salesforce? I thought it was a good company. Why sell?
I think it is too
Didnt he sell amazon in Q2 so anywhere between 100 and 130?
One thing I will not scold someone for -EVER. Is in the threat of a recession placing your money in commodities. Now coal is more important to China than the US, so maybe look at what the coal companies business lies. 😊
PG is a secular play, probably has a recession thesis behind it..those guys don’t just make bad moves..atleast not the reputable ones
Most of the Investors are selling. Lets see where the futures take us
Mastercard and Visa are duopolies not monopolies. Like Peosi and Coca-Cola.
can you tell the media you're thesis on Michael Burry's puts, and make them stop scaring the markets
Do these funds give updates on their overall performance? Would love to see if they are beating the tech/QQQs
I'm sure they do but I don't know where to find it. I think Howard Marks has absolutely crushed the indices over the last decade.
Thoughts on PepsiCo 👀
Hold forever buy when it's 10% off peak and if it goes 15-20% off peak really really buy in. That's my strategy with them
Howard doesn’t run Oaktree’s portfolios anymore
thanks for using the chapter markers
My advice to anyone starting out in the market is to seek guidance as its the best way to build long term wealth while managing your risk and emotions with the passive investing strategy
I must say right the trading market is constantly evolving with new features, trading opportunities, financial swings with sudden surprises around every corner. The best thing is to stay in shape and don’t let anything catch you on the wrong foot
As the economy crisis keep rising, one needs to have different streams of income, a well detailed diversified investment portfolio in the financial markets is needed to survive, as well as secure a profitable investment future! Wondering if viewers here are familiar with Camille Anne Hector trading strategies
I know Camille Anne Hector , Been trading with her since 2021, my first investment with her gave me profit of over $265,000 and ever since then she has never failed to deliver and I can even say she's the most sincere broker I have known
Nothing feels better than having a trader that makes maximize profit on ones benefit, I didn't get to benefit that this whole lockdown but its never late, how can i reach this trader you speak about that made you earning even in the red market?
if interested in her service just look her full name up and you would be directed to her platform.
If you know Pabrai, you know he likes cheap companies. The coal companies have a PE of 4 lol. That’s why he bought them, and he might have exited already at a decent profit.
I’m pretty sure Pabrai lost big on MU
Li Lu exited MU as well.
Nope, initially bought in 20-8 and added bigger chunk in 2019. Prices were lower then
I like this series you do, but I'd do it a bit different
1
But if you look his trades, mostly if not all are tech companies,he’s sold so maybe his puts of SPY and QQQ are legit.he’s shorting the tech and growth stocks.
I am surprised their buying price, all investors and most of their stocks, buy price is significantly foolish not sure what they were doing when these stocks were down....
Howard Marks has a lot bets on Brazil, mainly energy and banks . Strange under Lula government….
Change pat Dorsey out for Stanley drunkenmiller
alot of people has broght, JPM, a company you just sold, can we get a comment on that?
Day 387 of asking Joe Carl to call his stocks ‘double compounders with cheese’
He bought 20,000 spy puts and 20,000 qqq puts, they were 2.22/contract and 2.75/contract. By my math it's a 10 million dollar position, but i dont have all the details either
They are all using defensive strategies...PG is an example off that...
What do you think of Terry smith's investment into philip morris? They have bought new companies like swedish match which produce products like zyn which are growing in popularity and could be a good growth area for the company
Terry is just gambling😂