The Belmont Stakes by The Thorograph Numbers and Patterns
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- Опубліковано 13 вер 2024
- Without question one of the more popular shows on @PastTheWireTV and in Horse Racing. The Belmont Stakes by The Thorograph Numbers and Patterns. Our Thorograph Numbers and Patterns have been spot on way more often than not and the numbers don't lie. It is all in the patterns.
On this episode Jon breaks down the numbers and patterns on all The Belmont Stakes runners.
Who is fast enough?
Who is likely to bounce?
Who is too slow?
Who is moving forward?
Who is moving backwards?
Who has the best pattern?
Thank you for watching. Jon says he will try and do one race from Saratoga this meet by The Thorograph Numbers and Patterns, let us know which one you want in the comments. maybe if we have enough requests we can get him to do one from Del Mar also.
We have a ton of great Belmont Festival content here:
• Belmont Stakes Racing ...
We appreciate you all and hope to see many of you at our Belmont Stakes seminar.
Big Race Jim Gazzale and Geo will be doing a rundown on the whole field after they draw the race. Ride with us, you'll never starve!
Photo: Saratoga from the far turn, Past the Wire
Videography: Big Race Jim Gazzale, Past the Wire
I always appreciate the info! My vote for the next Thorograph show is The Met Mile. I know I broke the rules bc it's not technically the SAR meet but it's going to be a good race.
Great Content!!
I concur about the Met Mile!!
That could be the best race of the day!! One of my favorite betting days of the year!!
Love all of past the wire shows. I would love a show with all of the top jockeys, strengths, weaknesses, tendencies, and preferred riding styles. Thanks Jon
Will do and thank you
Yeah, while they are all talented, some are better than others, all have strengths and weaknesses.
I am becoming a believer in thorograph. Keep your videos coming.
I love Seize the Grey. After running a much improved race, Lucas said he came out of the race as if he did not run. I look for another move forward$$$$$$
The last 2 races he out broke the gate like a quarter horse .
Really appreciate the videos! Thank you for everything you do to help all of us out. I also wish thorpedo anna was running in the belmont. Maybe she’ll stay fresh and run in the bc classic or travers if we’re lucky
I like the way you run through those Thorograph numbers. He probably won't like anyone saying this, but you use those numbers and speak about them better than their creator, Jerry Brown! I have been on Sierre Leone since the Risen Star. Brown has forgotten more about horses than I'll ever know, but he better be right about these two changes he's introducing for this unique running of the Belmont Stakes. Your show gave me exacta and trifecta ideas. Thanks! Must see TV IMHO!
Thank you Michael much appreciated!
Brown's horse bore in so uncontrollably it ruined a Secretariat class horse from fame and breeding. Maybe it was extreme lactic acid buildup or a cracking or splintering leg bone. The horse should be out of competition not the usual scapegoat: a good rider.
Thanks for the info and your time to work & teach ! :)
Very gracious intro. Let's take the mulligan and move on. Will always hold your and Geo's opinions the highest in the business. Hope you and both your families are doing well.
We Win, We Win Together!
There haven't been that many horses that have won the Derby ,lost the Preakness, and then won The Belmont. The last one was Thunder Gulch in 1995,And Swale before that in 1984(Had to look it up) I think it would be a pretty cool thing if Mystik Dan could accomplish that, from a historical perspective. Now betting on him to accomplish that on short odds,that's another story. Thanks so much for doing these. Always immensely enjoyable.
A pleasant surprise, great stuff as always Jon and thanks in particular for giving me a head start on the Peter Pan horses as I didn't have updated sheets for them. I'm going to have to reconsider Antiquarian as a contender knowing he ran a 3, visually didn't look that fast, but he's live. Happy to hear you're kind of with me on Seize the Grey, right now he and Mindframe are my prime challengers to Sierra Leone. I think non-TG players are going to seriously undervalue Seize the Grey's ability to repeat or move forward off his Preakness.
The only reason that I had the super in the Preakness is that I have a microshare in Seize the Grey and threw him in the box out of sheer sentimentality. Life did not afford me the time to study that race the way that I like to do it. The phone kept ringing, etc. So I did two things that you say never to do. I threw a sentimental horse in there and I boxed. Despite the win, I do agree with you and I've got to learn to be more disciplined.
No way that I thought Seize the Grey was a win contender particularly because Lukas told us that he was "a one-turn horse" after he flopped in both of his 1 1/8 tries. Personally, I was against running him in the Preakness based on the negatives expressed by Lukas but the majority thought it was great even if the old guy just wanted to share in the limelight one more time.
So weird that he won it. And now our one-turn horse is running in the Belmont Stakes? My gut instinct is that something isn't right about it. Or, maybe microshare owners are the last to know what this particular trainer really thinks possibly because a horse with a bazillion microshare owners often gets bet down to stupid odds. Then to hear him talk to the press like it was no surprise, the 1 mile race on DY day was the perfect set up, it was the perfect plan, etc.
Anyway, really enjoy your show and learn a lot from you.
thanks for the show, nice job
Awesome analysis! I've become a huge fan because you "tell it like it is"!
I'd like to hear about your undercard analysis! Much appreciated!
Thanks for the show awesome as always. These shows are helping me figure out how the read the numbers and patterns. I’m going to throw the Travers out there for a Thorograph show. Thanks again
Always look forward to these videos. Thank you Jon. Going to vote for the Whitney or the Test
Nobody does it better thanks you sir really appreciate it god bless!💯🙏🏾The numbers do not lie!
Sir can you please do thorograph video on Met Mile may be race of the weekend. Return of White Abarrio
Thanks Jon love you’re insight on the numbers. Would love to see the daily shows come back for the Saratoga meet but any thing is appreciated Bouna fortuna
Gonna do one every Saturday of the meet.
I've really been enjoying this Three Year Old Season with you and would love to continue with The Travers,especially since there will,potentially, be horses in the race who've already run and possible won at Saratoga at 1 1/4 miles. I think that would be a first!
Jon what are the numbers on Resilience? Looks like Mott is going to run him.
Another great job Jon.
Thanks for listening
That 6 furlong workout was a beauty for STG. Oh and the racing gods couldn’t of scripted his post draw any better. Post 1 the same as arrogate at the travers. Same track, same distance, same post 😮
Same gray coat, same big heart, same great determination.
Two I like also in this race Honor Marie , and The Wine Stewart, with Leone, and the Gray.
Love you guys! Thanks for all the great info, most appreciated. I'd love your takes on the Stephen Foster and the Haskell when they get closer.
always love the analysis, wish it was still the mile and half, if so the "freight train" would win by 3 lengths, but is what it is. Love mind frame, has such a great look to him.
I saw an interview on TVG. The announcer was talking about trainers not working their horses on sloppy/muddy tracks. The other announcer said true but not D Wayne he works them out in any kind of weather. I remembered that before the Preakness and still picked his other horse because his sire Justify won the Preakness on the slop. My bad.
Will be up in Saratoga for the Whitney Jon.. A thorograph show on the Whitney?…Great Belmont show much appreciated
I like Mindframe but just wonder if he is ready for these ? I think Antiquarian might be the sleeper here
Excellent analysis of prospective 2024 Belmont Stakes' Colts using Thorograph Numbers and patterns! Informative, educational, and Jonathan is easy to listen to - similar to listening to Donald Trump! Thank you, John Burton, East Berlin, PA.
What about Resilience?
Yes please on met mile video!! Go seize the grey in Belmont!!
Yes great show.
Always much appreciation for what you do, and I don't mean to argue with success but I would rather hear about horses more than numbers....as an example I would like to hear what you saw in Notable Speech and his races to make him someone to watch. Good luck in the Belmont!
The numbers are a picture of the horses pattern. Love them, but only when Jon presents them!
Thx Jon!!
Great Show Jon! Thank You!!
Grazie Tommy
Great info my man
Great discussion Jon, appreciate the education as always. Been hearing others talk about why Sierra Leone is training on the rail instead of outside…any thoughts on that or just trust Chad? Look forward to all your shows 👊🏼
Bob Baffert Knew There Would’ve Been An “” “” On This Years Triple Crown With The Belmont Stakes Being Adjusted To A Much Shorter Distance, So The Derby & Preakness Winners Will Carry A Much Better Credential Than The Winner Of The Adjusted Belmont Stakes,,,,🏰🇺🇸🇯🇲 Mr. KeenObserVatioN PhD,🇯🇲🇺🇸🏰
Wayne here - Thanks for sharing great content again! Looks like a very interesting race if most of these actually go. VERY curious 2 c what Ken McPeek does entrywise. Thanks again!
Thanks for the work Jon... would of like to have seen Catching Freedom in the mix.
your comments on mystic dan are spot on great narative. I think you are right and he will be back to the 9 which will be off the board. which is good to have a contender out of 1 2 3
Grazie, we'll see.
Jon… what’s the numbers for Resilience?.. moving forward pattern?
With your help, I had the trifecta in both the Derby and the preakness in my top 5 rated horses.
I'm still learning how to bet, though.
Nice job!!!
Wayne here - NOTHING is more important at the races than knowing how to bet. NOTHING. Good luck to you.
Good day ‘
My prediction’ is as follows
[1] Resilience
[2] Seize the Gray
[3] Mystic Dan
[4] The Wine Steward
Thx✔️
Good show again
Mystik Dan is my kid’s favorite horse, and I’m a MyRacehorse owner (not of STG though) so my sentimental exacta netted me some good money on Preakness day! I like Antiquarian a lot here too. I really wish Forever Young had run here.
I agree, I wish Forever Young would have stayed for the Belmont, and taught SL a life lesson, but the Japanese were so gracious in being so cheated.
My top choices are Sierra Leone definitely on top Seize the grey Antiquarian. I like Batten Down if he enters. But I heard he's not running but if I'm wrong he's my Catching freedom is also a contender if he runs But my Top 3 Is Sierra Leone Seize the grey Antiquarian. Also another one if he runs Resilience is another long shot I like but don't know if he's running I don't like Mystic Dan again I'm not big on this horse I think the Derby was a fluke my opinion
Very good usually, in general
Very helpful
There were as few handicappers that had Dornick. Not me
Marco d'Angelo and that black handicapper that calls himself the
Speed King. He had Dornick in his Longshot category. They both made sense
It was strange this year, though
Thks jon 4 early show. I'm making exactas so far sierra leone with honor code and the wine Stewart if he goes. H.m.only horse had serious problems in k.d.people didn't even see jock coming out of irons 4 the 1st quarter mile. Late developer like honor code honor a.p. ouch. Didn't bet him in derby. Is catching freedom going. No mention
For future referencing fhis is the Saratoga Stakes. Saratoga dirt track at nine furlongs was notorious for inside bias because it seems to crest along the five path so an inside horse going into the first turn can force an outside competitor over the crest and into the parking lot as they used to joke. Good aspect is the track sheds rain more evenly than Bel or CD which creates inside path conditions very recently exploited thanks to Mother Nature an astute trainers and riders. This is not handicapping info. It is to stress that for handicapping purposes this is NOT the BelStk it is a 1 1/8 run on Saratoga dirt likely through famously upstate light air!!!
thank you for your analysis! headed to the spa tomorrow. what wager type would you recommend for a lite budget($200) for the weekend to have a chance at a nice score?
Called every winner in the triple crown this year. SL, Mindframe and Tuscan Gold if he runs are my picks ✅✅✅
Some news for the bettors Friday and Saturday will be heavy rain at Saratoga
I am afraid you're right, we need a dome track lol
That will never happen. But you should see what a piece of garbage the new Belmont Park is going to look like. Because everyone who is appointed to head positions at the racing industry have connections with the politicians who don't know how to run anything
Great show Jon as always NOBODY DOES IT BETTER THAN THE PICK SIX KING !!!
Well done, as always. The new shooter seems quite dangerous.
Me too Jon wish he was entering Fierceness totally against him big-time Zig Zag new name for him
Great stuff
Dornach: thought i heard he had a cracked hoof for KD.
Kind of a dumb question but what kind of a trip would a 23 rating indicate i.e., Sieze the Grey at 2. Thanks for all the great info.
No dumb question at all, just a slow race really.
What is your opinion on Resilience since he’s in the field? Thanks
The numbers show always interesting.. I think there is a chance Fiercess doesn't run again ..they don't want 2 bad races ..lets see ..what a different race than the 1 1/2 at Belmont
Agree. That would not surprise me.
20/20 hindsight
No need to apologize. You’ve always explained the numbers are just an indicator. Love Big Sandy and the 1 1/2
Thank you
Do you think we could see C. Brown enter Tuscan Gold in a different race at Saratoga for the Belmont festival?
Doubt it I would guess Jim Dandy or Haskell.
In the Symbol Sheet explaining the abbreviations and definitions provided by Thoro-graph, Jerry Brown & team define a "pair" as a race within 1 point (higher or lower) of a horses top. I've heard you use the term "regress" when talking about Thoro-graph patterns where that same figure would be defined by TG as a "pair. " Is this a case of your experience with pattern interpretation having different standards than the terms used by Thoro-graph? Thanks as always for the great content!
100% my interpretation. I actually used to look at it I guess more liberally and go by that school of thought but after years of doing this I have become more stringent and precise. It is just one way I try and get a little separation from the masses.
@@PastTheWireTV i should know better than to ask questions i think i already know the answer to (having the cold exacta with the reason for doing it that way). thanks for the explanation.
@@waltertnyc Thanks Walter
Jon, I bet the freight train in the Derby..had a $50 oaks double along with some other cabbage that came up short . Obviously I am playing him back…the only angle, and I use the word angle liberally here because I am almost looking for ghosts to bring this up., but…Sieze The Grey’s Daddy ran the fastest race ever run at at 10f at Saratoga. One of the biggest runs of all time! Can we discount that completely? That fact is just lingering with me. It’s really the only scenario I can find that SIera Leone loses if he runs a clean race this time.
i would like to see numbers and patterns- sprint race
Why did Bob send no horses
None he thought were ready to win it.
You don't need to make Preakness excuse. Re listen to what you said on Preakness Seize the Grey, you said he had a good pattern, you did
Love the pearls both around your neck as well as the ones falling from your mouth. Where's Geo?
He’s close by. Grazie 👍🏻
I like the colt that broke his maiden at Saratoga back in early November as a 2 yr old to win the Belmont stakes at Saratoga 🎉
PK 6 delivers again
Bright red Lip stick would go real good with your blouse. Pearl neckless looks good as well.
The Jockey change on Sierre Leone will make a big difference. Thanks Ms love you comments. BYE sweetie
I have a question if you can help me. I want to look up/ purchase sire stats for first time starters the Dam only. so if a horse has sent 3 first time starters out I want to know how many times it has win/placed/show. Whether it's 0 for 28 or 7 out of 10 do you happen to know where exactly I can find this information? Thanks for your time sir
I hope Tuscan Gold runs in the Belmont. He’s by Medaglia d’Oro who loved Saratoga & his progeny usually do well up there. He may not win but I can see Chad running 1-2.
Thank you cugine xoxox
I appreciate numbers. But until we see how the track conditions are and how it plays, it's a moot point.
nice shades brand ?
Grazie!!!
Dolce Gabbana 😎
preakness ,Seize was the best bred for the mud plus had the top e1 and top e2 ,not a mystery
Good broadcast but I wish they would include trip in the discussion. The “numbers don’t lie” but trip affects outcomes.
Thorograph is a number that is supposed to account for trip. Thus Mystic Dan Derby a 3, Sierra Leone 1 and 1/2 even though final times were identical 😊
Love the show but its going to rain Antiquarian might not like the slop but Mystic Dan does as does Seize the Grey
Jon, we love you brother. Thanks for creating a family of degenerates horse maniacs. It’s trustworthy and good. We appreciate you and depend on you.
I appreciate that
No one does it like the Pick 6 King!!!
Grazie
USE THE KENTUCKY DERBY NUMBERS ...THAT WAS A MILE & A QUARTER...RIGHT?
I think I remember you saying you didn't like the way Forever Young got over the track either???????
100% I didn't. I still don't but he surely ran great. I'm 4 out of 5 last three years. Decent enough.
What do you mean when you say you dont like the way a horse gets over the track?
@gretafields4706 Jon said he didn't like Forever Young because of the way he moved over the track and then he runs a very good race
I know he has said that about various horses. It is horse lingo that I don't understand. I will ask him to explain what he means later. What it suggests to me is some visual cue??? I saw Forte stumble one morning, like he was too tired to trot, and he might mean something like that? I like to see horses pick up their legs and attack the ground?
@@gretafields4706 Hi Greta. I didn’t and still don’t like the way he moves when he runs. Sometimes they still run good but his action is sort of choppy and in a race like the Derby especially I don’t like that and will be right way more often than wrong in that situation. This time the horse ran very good. True to his form and numbers but this is a marathon not a sprint.
I ment honor Marie.
IMHO, chad should have made the equipment changed before derby, now if the equipment change works they will all blame tyler. Unfair
And the winner is?
Mystik Dan.
Slightly disagree. My numbers said, Seize the gray in the Preakness and to prove my numbers are correct. I’ll be playing Dornock in the Belmont.
Might want to let your audience know the reason why he did not run well in the derby
I think wet track helped STG. Good sire mud stats.
STG!!!
@Jon, You Sir have beautiful skin !
You have to handicap numbers bye the rain certain horses are must have on slop I had Mystic Dan and Sierra Leone n derby had Seize the Grey and Mystic Dan in the preakness the weather will play in the race I am throwing out Mindframe and Antiquarian these horses are not mudders!
Brad wins
TRAVELERS PLEASE
Dornoch likes the slop so your numbers might not mean anything
fierceness NEVER ran any good races...he is a SLOW frontrunner, who beats up on fields when he goes in slow 47.1 by himself. He was first throw out in ky Derby because of track phantom..
Ahhhhhhh. Ahhhh. Ahhhhh. Ahhhh
???
I'm glad Fierceness isn't running I'm not a fan of that horse think he's overrated inconsistent Jekyll and Hyde horse Another Forte Stay away from that kind of horse He wouldn't of had any chance in the Belmont but don't worry about him
Thanks for all the videos. They are really helpful and enjoyable. Jockeyweight125
ENOUGH EXCUSES!!! THE GREAT COACH LUKAS KICKED YOUR BUTT WHEN EVERBODY WAS LOOKING THE OTHER WAY.
He is in the haskell. The new Belmont racetrack looks like shit. Because the president who runs nyra is appointed by the state so when the state is involved in anything it gets screwed up. The racing industry is going downhill for a long time because of many reasons. It's to bad I always loved going to Belmont in the summer time.