FSD will never pass level 4 or 4.5. Level 5 will NEVER happen so you will always need a driver. Hence why Tesla’s share value dropped big time. Teslacab is unlikely to be authorized for real life large scale deployment
I drove the new model X last week on a motorway. There are still so many glitches in autopilot, you’re talking about 0,5% that hasn’t been solved, I would estimate at least 25 % of very hard problems still need to be solved. My prediction: 50 years for widespread adaptation from now, if investments into selfdriving combined with adaptations in the road system continue at present pace.
I'm afraid that vehicle ownership will go up, not down. In our dystopian future the vast majority of the population will be low wage "gig" workers living in autonomous RVs. RV drops you off at job site, then drives itself to the outskirts of the city to park for the day and later returns to pick you up after work and then it drives you to an overnight parking lot. Only the rich will be able to afford a regular house on actual land. They should make a Black Mirror episode about this.
Ride sharing? In my country a huge push and media campaign, including the builing of free parking spots close to the highway for ride sharing was done with only limited success. I value the privacy of my own car, i would never drive with coworkers or strangers. If I were inclined to do so, i’d take the train.
@@fulconerra3055 As accessibility and cost of self-driving cars comes down, more people will make the switch. A car is the 2nd most expensive thing most people buy.
I think that if the Tesla dream of the affordable Model 2 comes true, then there will be a faster adoption. Once the younger generations adopt full self driving, it will take off rapidly. Thanks for the video
Remember FSD does NOT have to be "Perfect" - it just has to be better than human drivers! Tesla FSD is already a lot better than the average human - and getting better Also remember that its insurance companies that PAY for accidents - and they will read the numbers - and lobby governments to allow FSD
@@BrianKehm Today - from the accident figures it's about five times safer than an average driver - so probably just about as safe as a very good driver! And getting better all the time - which is not true for us humans
@@BrianKehm Today its about five times safer than the average driver - probably about as safe as a good driver! But its getting better every update - soon it will be better than a very very good driver
This is hilarious, take a lesson from history and try not to predict the future because you will be mostly wrong. As the cold fusion guys how their predictions have worked out.
FSD will never pass level 4 or 4.5. Level 5 will NEVER happen so you will always need a driver. Hence why Tesla’s share value dropped big time. Teslacab is unlikely to be authorized for real life large scale deployment
@@saimonthesaint the timeline is further out than some hoped. But eventually will get there.
After 20 years, Roomba still cannot vacuum a room within 30 minutes. Robots like FSD are still my years (decades away).
I drove the new model X last week on a motorway. There are still so many glitches in autopilot, you’re talking about 0,5% that hasn’t been solved, I would estimate at least 25 % of very hard problems still need to be solved. My prediction: 50 years for widespread adaptation from now, if investments into selfdriving combined with adaptations in the road system continue at present pace.
I'm afraid that vehicle ownership will go up, not down. In our dystopian future the vast majority of the population will be low wage "gig" workers living in autonomous RVs. RV drops you off at job site, then drives itself to the outskirts of the city to park for the day and later returns to pick you up after work and then it drives you to an overnight parking lot. Only the rich will be able to afford a regular house on actual land. They should make a Black Mirror episode about this.
@@_winston_smith_ that’d be an interesting Black Mirror episode. Although, I’m more inclined to think of the WALL-E future for humans 😂
Ride sharing? In my country a huge push and media campaign, including the builing of free parking spots close to the highway for ride sharing was done with only limited success. I value the privacy of my own car, i would never drive with coworkers or strangers. If I were inclined to do so, i’d take the train.
@@fulconerra3055 As accessibility and cost of self-driving cars comes down, more people will make the switch. A car is the 2nd most expensive thing most people buy.
@@BrianKehm thanks! I agree, but it’s not the cost I’m talking about.
I think that if the Tesla dream of the affordable Model 2 comes true, then there will be a faster adoption. Once the younger generations adopt full self driving, it will take off rapidly.
Thanks for the video
@@stewall101 thanks! The Model Y has already become the best selling car in the world. A lower cost model 2 could become even more popular.
Remember FSD does NOT have to be "Perfect" - it just has to be better than human drivers!
Tesla FSD is already a lot better than the average human - and getting better
Also remember that its insurance companies that PAY for accidents - and they will read the numbers - and lobby governments to allow FSD
@@duncancairncross for adoption, FSD will likely have to be many times safer than human drivers.
@@BrianKehm Today - from the accident figures it's about five times safer than an average driver - so probably just about as safe as a very good driver!
And getting better all the time - which is not true for us humans
@@BrianKehm Today its about five times safer than the average driver - probably about as safe as a good driver!
But its getting better every update - soon it will be better than a very very good driver
This is hilarious, take a lesson from history and try not to predict the future because you will be mostly wrong. As the cold fusion guys how their predictions have worked out.
@@jmcoelho7 I’m going off trend lines and not emotions. Nonetheless, I could be way off on the timeline. Stop back here in 20 years :)