Epidemics and the end of humankind | Rosalind Eggo | TEDxThessaloniki
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- Опубліковано 20 лип 2024
- From the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic to the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, humankind has lived in fear of a potent infectious disease that would mark its demise. Dr Rosalind Eggo is a mathematical modeller who tracks the spread of deadly viruses, in an attempt to stop them. In this talk, she combines science with humour and answers the question we all want to ask: “Will a pandemic mark the end of humankind?”
Rosalind Eggo is an Assistant Professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, in the UK. She received her PhD in the dynamics of the 1918 influenza pandemic from Imperial College London, and then worked at The University of Texas at Austin, USA. Rosalind works in mathematical modelling of infectious diseases. This means she uses computational and mathematical methods to understand the transmission of pathogens through populations. The aim of infectious disease modelling is to understand the routes and mechanisms that drive the spread of infections, so that we can ultimately design interventions to prevent them. Rosalind has worked on analysis of pandemic influenza, Ebola, Zika, cholera, and other pathogens. This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community. Learn more at www.ted.com/tedx
One of the best introductions to the basis for and basics of pandemic mathematics and modelling.
Meymeygwis I think she makes it more complicated than it needs to be
Who is watching this at the peak of the *coronavirus Covid 19 pandemic* in 2020?
Pandemic could lab made.
Jose Peixoto I am.
Jose Peixoto you are. 😊
Does she have a up to date video.
me
When she gave this talk I’m sure a lot of people were thinking, “Yeah, yeah, whatever; that was a hundred years ago”. And what are they thinking today?
Bruce Wilson That they planned this and this woman is a shill
They probably think she was employed by the Chinese, if they think at all.
Perhaps Those who don't learn from history are condemned to repeat it?
TEXAS LIBERTY ADVOCATE NETWORK ACTION tin foil cowboy hat for every day eh?
@@digitalperson108 Right! See my reply to that twit above.
My question is why isn't this video spreading faster ? Among TEDx 24M . Lets make an effort to share this. And she needs a new 2020 video !
Maybe people are scared of viral videos during COVID19.
She's an Imperial College modeller talking cleverly and saying nothing/
@@johnvaughan7096 first of all, imperial college london I assume you're talking about, pretty prestigious. and if you had half a brain you would know that she's just educating on what her scientific field does.
Why aren’t more people listening to this right now!
Maybe because we didn't know that luck factored into science, and that zombies don't actually exist anywhere in the animal kingdom?
Brains! Brrraaaiiinnnsss!
TJ None PPL will once this video comes up. You Tube and f/book interferes with videos by way of deleting or no notification, and so forth. Seems social media can censor any video they want regardless of free speech.
Well and what did you hear? Did you hear the fact that because the number of cases are dropping that means the we are past the half way mark? ( a little past 7:05 there is a graph) That is what she said.
Well, we know that about 60 million of American voters, are morons who don't believe in science; so, there's that.
... because of all the truth videos on UA-cam these days. 🤔
Fantastic. Thank you for this ray of light during these dark times.💓
why does this not have a million hits..
Too erudite to go viral. Very good talk though, the best explanation I’ve seen for the curve we have all become so familiar with.
same way global warming is ignored. its not inconveniencing us yet like these death tolls and self isolation.
The real and non political reason is people overt their attention away unpleasant things such as disease, yet they make millions of hits on funny cat videos because they make people laugh and forget their problems.
Because there was tons of these type videos put out 1 year ago we know cold spread happens every year people prefer cats to viruses
Because statistics nerds like us are a rare breed.
Would like to hear her analysis of the current pandemic.
She has many analyses of the current pandemic in the literature..
This lecture has now become more pertinent in light of the recent outbreak of the COVID-19 virus.
I hope this is an intended understatement
@@paugargallo7813 Yes, we do not want a mass-extinction of the human race.
Gee, you think? Why do you think it made your feed....
@Raoul Duke Oh and just what does the math say to you?
@@dustigenes And which voice does Raoul listen to ...the media voice or the little boy voice who lives in his left ear..
Very interesting to watch in the midst of the biggest pandemic since the 1918 Influenza Pandemic.
A set up.
JORDII I know! It just showed up on my timeline randomly!!!
Hardly comparably. Spanish Flu: 32million year one, 50 million year two. You missed her intro? She states 50-100million died. Convid 19 has barely passed the 1mil mark and it's admittedly exaggerated.
@@sloppyoppie now 3 million, and anything but exagerrated. probably the death toll is double. but only people that are diagnosed and die in the hospital are counted.
@@thomaswijgerse723 Yes exaggerated. Name a flu where for the first 11 months both ASSOCIATIVE and CAUSATIVE deaths were tallied the same. Then, name a flu where the identification criteria was so vague it included things like Motorcycle accident (my friend of 25 years) or my old neighbor's diabetes yet his lower leg needing to chopped off was because of covid. These are real examples. Or name a flu where the average additional payout from GOV per case was 40k? And regarding your end note of mindlessness... NO, cases are not counted because the hospital says so. It's the coroner's job.
A year from now we will have some ACTUAL data on the current situation. I will be interested to see what the numbers are for Sweden vs other countries.
8 months. Fearnews will focus on first infection wave. Focus on recovery and death rate. Also on the impact of additional waves.
Sweden is doing just fine. Soon it will be the richest country in the EU.
@@zmartkooky244 "Fearnews" 🙄
She did a great job of explaining in simple terms the course of epidemics and pandemics.
And all that our government should have
done, was to watch a 15 minute Ted talk...
Um, no. Ebola in 2019 didn't turn into a pandemic because Congolese were open and transparent, allowing MSF and WHO in to that damn war one to squash its spread. Chinese SARS and Corona19 spread due a total lack of transparency. The problem is that we shouldn't stay perpetually open borders / open for business with any authoritarian, communist and therefore opaque nations.
@@ezekielbrockmann114 Wrong. There are some inherent disease differences. Ebola is not airborne, it has a different latency period, and there were cultural factors that made the disease spread the way it did in the Congo. Respiratory diseases, particularly those that cause asymptomatic infection are different and harder to identify. Not to mention, our public health system has been chronically underfunded in the United States. Border Closures are difficult policy decisions, they have obvious economic impacts that will be assessed LONNNNGGG after COVID is gone.
I saw this talk a long a time ago and forgot lol
@@ezekielbrockmann114 what also helped is that ebola was so deadly. There was no asymptomatic period in which you were infectious without knowing it, and it killed hosts so quickly it barely had a chance to spread. Also africa is quite rural so of course it is easier to isolate a virus if the country is sparsely populated with hosts.
Very interesting talk. Covid-19 is so prevelant worldwide at the moment. Would love to see another talk about how it compares with all outbreaks
I believe without the lockdown most of us are in, the RO is 3 for covid-19. So for every person infected they are likely to infect 3 more. Its less deadly than others but because its so contagious it will still kill many people as it transmits far more easily than other comparable viruses like the flu. Having a 14 day incubation period is part of it.
@@missbluerain I've heard some say the number is 4 but since it is SARS-2 its probably close to SARS on the scale which looked to be about 3. Makes you wonder what happened to the vaccine research, if any, on SARS and how the genome sequence compares between them. Didn't SARS mutate to a non-lethal variant?
This lady should be in the Task Force. She not only has good knowledge of the the subject, but she also has a very credible voice. A speaker with a weak or harsh voice is not believable.
She already seems to head a task force in UK.
This was released on 26 of July, 2018! And just happens to "pop-up" now! Mmmmmm! Amazing!
It's almost as if there's an algorithm, which ranks the videos that people watch, and recommends them to other viewers.
And just a year later here we are!
This should be required for all member of the USA executive branch.
“Because zombies aren’t real”...yet...
Famous last words.
Wow....this was certainly the Slow Moving Train headed our Way....I just wish our leadership would have listened and acted
they did and people ignored them
MAS THEY WERE LISTENING but even though I just started listening, I’m SURE that she’ll CONVENIENTLY LEAVE OUT reality that ALMOST ALL diseases work differently which makes it almost impossible to “plan or prepare.”
Monsieur P. that logic doesn't follow. Test, Trace, Isolate is always the right way to understand the disease and to slow the spread, while treatments are developed (hopefully accelerated with investment).Never the less, the same strategy.
@Thad Dunkin But, a dictator over dead bodies then?
George Bush started preparing. republicans in congress shot him down. republicans in congress have been slashing public health money for decades.
That was so cool! That proves that super smart people have the best kind of sense of humour!
margasa The Trumpets will just chant this is fake as they are conned out of their last dollar, and now, conned to death.
Super smart or knew what was planned?
I admire your knowledge. I am speechless, after watching and listening to you lecture
You too, can have this same knowledge
Finally, someone's brave enough to put what we're all thinking could happen in their title; The End Of Humankind.
We humans are barely cracking the surface in understanding our own power. We can choose all the negativity we like, if that's what we choose.
And this talk is from 2018! We should have been paying attention to the possibility of this back then.
@@linda4426 Search for G. Bush speaking anout preparation for a pandemic in 2005...mind blowing...! And later Obama too...and Bill Gates...and so on...
interpretation21 - you don't need a math model
also interpretation21 - lists a dozen things that require a ton of math models
me - _(slaps forehead.)_ "Ohhhhh. All we have to do is reduce "global activity" by 90%! _It's so simple!"_
@interpretation 21 "no entry or exit or departure" lmfao
Really good talks, simply understand with deep explanations, how worth your notion dispersion!
Disease won't wipe us out. We will do it ourselves. Coming soon to your Facebook.
We cannot solve problems with the same consciousness in which the problems were created . We must step bravely into the future knowing we are loved.
Excellent 🌈 I got ~Very sick, After I woke up I boiled water put Teatree oil in it put a towel over my head inhale 30 times and I felt way better then I gargled ....felt GOOD EFFECTIVE .....the next day I did the same thing with eucalyptus and I’m fine it worked I caught it early pass it along 🌎🙏🙏🙏 Thank You🌈
If you have hope for a change in human behavior... you’ll be disappointed.
Absolutely agreed.
The Frogy Frog knows is Pond Life
A Foggy Frog Very true ... sense Kane and able
A Foggy Frog tragically true.
Michael Brent - All those without will keep the covid fire burning.
GREAT video confirming what I had suspected about herd resistance!
I came here for the comments 🍿
Interesting that she assumes that immunity is a given, post initial infection. This may be true, but shouldn't be taken for granted.
A given, no. Of course not. But this is a surface level presentation of general modelling. Some level of immunity is norm, so basing a non-weekend-seminar presentation to laymen on it, is absolutely fair game.
Nowhere near all motor vehicles have 4 wheels, but in a 14 (10'ish sans curiosity example) minute surface-level representation of what a car is and how it works, that's not a good point to start diverging and digressing.
And COVID is mutating into many strains.
Please don't act like you know better because you're reading current news headlines.
Umm why isn’t immunity a given?
@@razadaza9651 if you can't tell anyone why it IS a given... then you can answer your own question.
Very informative... I wish that health care providers had seen this video before the Corona pandemic!
Question:
The three group analysis (infectious, recovered or dead, vulnerable) assumes that an infected person who recovers cannot be reinfected. What if they could be? There's no proof yet that the novel coronavirus leaves recovered people with lasting immunity, so how would that look in such a theoretical model?
exponential growth : where the rate of change of a quantity is proportional to the size of the quantity. ahh, memories of Calc 101 40 years ago
Starvation may be the next pandemic ...
Water is life. When we run out of potable water, we die.
Will be the next pandemic*
What she does not touch on is knock on effect of a serious pandemic from associated deaths.
Although there may not be a 100% end to Humankind, at what point is there such an effect on civilisation that it effectively means an end to civilisation.
At what point are enough people out of action with a disease, or have died from a disease, that the infrastructure of society breaks down causing an avalanche of associated mortality.
Our modern civilisation hangs on a knife edge. It is heavily dependant on a huge infrastructure of support to maintain the lifestyles of people who would not necessarily be able to support themselves without that infrastructure.
The maintenance of life rests on three main supports. We must have enough nutritious food, enough drinkable water, and shelter to protect us from the elements.
So what happens when a serious pandemic knocks out so many farmers. transport workers, communication workers, water industry workers, health workers, local government leaders etc that these industries are no longer able to function at a meaningful level? At what point do associated deaths resulting from the loss of these support facilities become so high that, added to the disease mortality, the continuation of the population becomes unsustainable? Yes, Humanity may survive, but at what level of civilisation? And beyond that, All animal populations have a number limit beyond which the continuation of the species is unsustainable. What is ours?
We need to keep sharing the video until it goes viral..
Informative talk. Thank you, bless you. All your dreams come true.
So it seems to me from watching this that the thing we most urgently need to establish about COVID 19 is what she is calling the "reproduction number". Right now we don't have any info at all on how many people an infected person infects. Without that number, you can't do the rest of the modeling that she presents regarding the likely progress of the infection. I've been wondering about this myself. Why isn't there more tracing of how people got infected so we can figure out the reproduction number?
Diana Trimble I googled the reproduction number for covid immediately, obviously it won’t be that accurate and will be modified and argued over for many years to come, that’s if the Spanish flu is anything to go by.
Humanity needs a damn good clearout in fact a total restart, only a matter,of time for the end of it and a new era
Well done, Dr. Eggo! Thanks so much for this! Gonna post the link on the White House website....Stay well!
In all examples transmissions were person to person..
Pity didn’t mention vector transmission such as fleas in bubonic plaque or mosquitoes in malaria
Or you could, … since she only had 18 mins, … and most people don't get fleas these days, Idk, maybe it's a concern for you, ... and getting rid of mosquitoes is kind of a no go. Or you could just continue being a passive aggressive Budinski in your desperate search for validation. Idk, tough choice.
It’s far easier to stop a disease that is spread by mosquitoes and fleas than one spread by humans because we now have the technology to kill off all fleas and mosquitoes everywhere.
Evan Nibbe fleas and mosquitoes were simply examples. What if household animals become vectors?
What a awesome information !
Thanks
What happens if after summer it mutates?
If only she and Dr. Fauci could team up and have free reign to lead us through this CoVid-19 pandemic, we might actually survive this.
We have the WORST possible political leadership in our hour of greatest need - and covid19 is just a mild-mannered warmup for climate change. Glad I won't be here to see the carnage...
We do have people like them to advise the government on the epidemic. Why are you such a moron?
The man who supports Tedros? 😂
What do you mean zombies aren't real? I see them every where I go where I live
thank you mam will follow and keep your words
We need to be looking out for all us ....meaning all countries!!! And their people who are of course very worthwhile people and mostly wonderful souls like everyone else! We need to stop being selfish & make sure to be prepared ( if you're seeing this in 2021 with the Corona Virus). From the US.
In the end, we need to have each others back and not make this political or anything else except the sacred nature of human life!!!!!
What is the rate of infection for the covid 19?
She was 1 1/2 years early on this. People have their heads up their culo today.
We need her now, that's for sure!
Science has been warning about pandemics for probably a century or more.
Event 201 turned out to be exactly what we see now.
The peak lowered only after a law was passed to wear medical face mask on October 24th 1918. Note the graph at 1.20 and google "spanish flu when was wearing masks law".
ACE it’s a tragedy that those NEED to learn this refuse to even think.
there is a sort of Zombie Apocalypse going on, the Zombies don't want to stay home, they don't want to social distance, they don't want to wear a mask. they want to gather in crowds and some are spreading it on propose... and worse, some Zombies, because they have no brain, don't know what 6 feet is... had a lot of Zombies get close to me, thinking 6 feet is arm length, and i'm not kidding.... good talk Dr Eggo
There is one variation of (theoretical) zombie infections that she did not expand upon which is this: they cause infections after the patient dies. So if you think about it, ebola does have a zombie-like quality since it can infect near-by people after the patient dies.
Bravo Rosalind Eggo, best of luck for your future.
"No one could have foreseen the CoVid-19 pandemic."
- Don the Con -
Very interesting!
Where do the imune fit in? Group 3?
Should have named the talk, "Eggo - The End of Humankind" (Be advised, only original and buttermilk flavors)
Leggo' it!
Wow another warning never heard...bit late on my feed but
will her formulas work, now that we know there is no antibodies created after getting infected?
You don't get better without antibodies.
The virus will mutate, however. Eventually Covid will become another strain of (more virulent) flu, probably with seasonal outbursts. Managing the complications of ARDS is the key to individual survival.
Great talk
What is the rate of the current transmission of COVID pls ? If anyone knows ?
@Intelligently Stoopid K - thank you ... zero idea here but assuming that is at the eupper bands of these examples here ...
What will happen first - Depletion of Susceptibles or Depletion of Deplorables?
I didn't know they had TED talks in Greece.
COVID-19.... Where was this info at the start of this outbreak? good luck to ya all!
Also of interest on you tube: Prof MICHAEL WOROBEY The Genesis of the 1918 Pandemic: From 1872 until ????
At 8:15 you mentioned the gap between the susceptible group and the recovered group as being those that did not get the virus, unfortunately the gap represents those that did not recover and passed away due to the virus.
Ray West what?
This is all pretty self evident. Distance is the best policy.
Outstanding.
Well nobody listened to her in 2018 but will listen in 2020.
This informative but the backdrop is very distracting and the lighting makes it difficult to see the graphs.
Imagine being in lockdown with her right now. It would be 'I told you so' overload.....
Or maybe ask her to help repopulate the planet 😘
Not really.
The entire subject matter of virology, infectiousness, mathematic modeling etc is very interesting and intriguing.
Incredible. All the Truth comes out.
Thank you , Since we manifest naturally anyway, all that's needed is to weed out our negative thoughts ... Amen love God 🕊️ 🕊️ 🕊️ 🕊️ 🕊️ 🕊️ 🕊️
Excellent.
There are other factors epidemiologists need to consider other than disease transmission when dealing with an epidemic/pandemic. Sociologists and economists need to be consulted also. With COVID we are so focused on preventing every possible infectious death that we have ignored deaths and other health complications due to economic devastation from complete isolation.
Amendment
This girl is providing good scientific info
One way thinking and group think is a recipe for disaster. I’m gonna flip the script. Watch Dr. Thomas Cowan’s take on this current pandemic and all pandemics right here on UA-cam, look it up and watch it. Here’s a tasty little nugget to get your interest. Dr. Cowan’s lecture in this video is all about the relationship between global frequency changes and pandemics. Enjoy!
for only one exemption, everyone of us is commenting after coronavirus. That proves that we humans are very bad at listening warings
She didn’t consider the case of a pandemic where people develop no immunity or a very limited immunity, which means that they could get reinfected. That could also mean a very apocalyptic scenario
I must be living in the covid era because I almost shrieked when she touched her nose at 5:38.
Is she greek? Because if she is she has very good accent
It was 1G Radio . :( QC
I wish she would've spoken on behalf of COVID-19 and the validity of SARs family on a futuristic model but the tall was much more condensed than anticipated.
This is from last year.
@@awelotta I know.. But the idea of her, just like the Bill Gates speech, didn't serve the country any good for proactive measures.
This virus is an odd one, as we know now that you can get reinfected within weeks. It's not unknown that this happens, it's just, its virulence is stunning. We are VERY fortunate that the mortality rate is so low.
I guess this video will go viral soon.
No worries, the human race will cause its own demise.
The question is how many species we will take with us.
Yeah, unfortunately...
The Coronavirus it's the perfect solution for all the problems plaguing the world right now I think we should just let it burn through so we can hit the reset button and start over. It's an equal opportunity killer it doesn't discriminate it doesn't care who you are
@@ericanderson3985 Even in worst-case scenario, tens of millions dead, > 98% of humanity will remain.
Most likely ALL of them!!!
We have already taken 90% of wildlife in the Ocean and on Land. And mass starvation is right around the corner. But some of them will out survive us and the world will heal. That's a guarantee.
Please talk to us about COVID-19.
Thanks some guide line
Leggo my Eggo!!!
Was gonna make a comment to this effect but wanted to browse the comment section first to see if someone did the honors for me.......
Yours is the first I saw haha
@@demonreturns4336 there are others as well........
But, for sure an epidemic can become a virtual "zombie" epidemic. It needs to be considered, that infections and concomitant social changes (such as economic and social breakdown, mental crises, job losses, etc.) will bring about indirect effects such as increased violence, crime, poverty, malice, negligence and accidents, which may increase the R artificially, and certainly will increase the death rates.
I would like to re-populate the planet with her !
Based on the statistics shown here, SARS could have really created a lot of havoc around the world! Why did SARS fizzle out and go away while COVID-19 continue to persist the way that it has?
Do you think this was deliberately scheduled to setup for covid-19
So, nearly everyone will eventually get it?
Eventually maybe, but the reason we stay home is so the hospitals don't become overwhelmed. That's when the death rate rises. If there is enough equipment for the patients and hospital staff, less die. We all get it at once, a lot more die...
Yes
An Imperial College epidemidiological modeller??? Wow, how great are they???
When I heard her talk about zombies I thought I was listening to a witch doctor in a grass hut.
Rather vague. The reproduction rate is not defined. If the R0 is 2 does that mean that an infected teacher taking 7 classes a day infects 2 people in each clsss ie 14 people per day or do they infect 2 people in total during their infectious period which is not defined and varies according to the disease?
It is just like multi level marketing where human becomes carrier
good information....thank you......it is interesting that the threat of epidemics/ pandemic has been talked about by multiple individuals both in govt and outside govt, two presidents, this woman, Bill Gates, and a World Health Organization Dr. back in 2005...
meanwhile weapons and warfare go on ...
cooperation toward a common goal for humanity needs to happen...the perpetuation of adversarial relationships is threatening the survival of humanity...