60% strategy sounds about right. While the dice rolls highly influence how the game is going to be played you have still quite a lot of ways to influence how much luck you need to ultimately win the game through trading and smart development.
Nicely done Treeck. Catan is certainly a skill game and it’s a beautiful thing to share that with newer players entering the scene. Hope to see more content from you soon! - DD
@@Treeckosaurus It's much more prevalent at higher levels though. At some point, players just start playing optimally and luck is the only deciding factor.
I think its a mix of strategy and luck 50/50 perhaps. As opposed to a game like Puerto Rico, which I consider the best board game ever, and is 99% skill. With Puerto Rico you have to think every move: if I do this, then he/she does that, and then I can do this etc etc and you also have the continuous switch in play order. So good.
So many players with 50% WR, personally I had multiple 10+ winning streaks in CK, there is obviously skill involved. Assigning a number to it seems arbitrary. ELO is how it's supposed to be, as it represents the liklihood of winning against particular opponent(s).
It can't be more luck or else there wouldn't be consistent top players and no competitive scene. There are relatively few games that are a large majority luck.
I think it's mostly about luck when you are playing other great players that are equal in skill. It's like 4 Steph Curry's shooting full court shots. They might be really good at shooting the basketball and will do everything to leverage their strengths, but these are still full court shots we're talking about and everyone is equal in skill. Strategy is basically negligible at that point and luck becomes the deciding factor (like who gets to take the first shot or who gets a lucky bounce or even a draft of wind). Things might change once you start playing cities and knights, where there are more game elements players can influence and use.
@@Treeckosaurus That's why I said he only plays other Stephs and not other NBA players. And they aren't playing basketball, they are just shooting full court shots in this analogy. The purpose of this way to show how the base Catan game only has a couple of viariables (like only considering shooting in basketball) for players to use which are subject to dice rolls (full court shots). Yes, you can be good at shooting, which will influence the amount of luck you can positions yourself to get. But in the the end that luck becomes overpowering when players are close in skill. There aren't enough variables in the base Catan game to strategically use well if everyone else uses the same ones and knows what the others are using. Everyone knows the best strategy and who has the best starting position on a given board if they are good players. At that point, you can't leverage your skills over others. There simply isn't enough game to do so. That's when the game becomes about getting lucky dice rolls. Basketball, on the other hand (the actual game and not full court shots), has a load of variables to use strategically. That means that, despite some players being close together in purely physical abilities, there is a significant strategic element to the game that is way, way more impactful than something like a lucky full court heave at the end of a quarter.
Catan is mostly about luck. The strategies/skills needed to win are pretty rudimentary, unlike chess where skills determine the outcome of the game almost 100% of the time. The 1st placements heavily decided the game. Simulations show that 4th player has the lowest winning chance (bad luck!). More often than not people just play OWS setup and win the game with cities and dev cards. Even in your game, the player with the best OWS setup won. Not saying he wasn't strategic/skillful, but the odds are with him for sure. So, I would say it's 75% luck and 25% skills IMO.
okay my comment got deleted :( there was an experiment in germany with Markus Heinze 2017 and 2018 world championship finalist vs 3 random recreational players... playing a catan game . He did not win that game. This should give you the answer. While in Catan strategy plays a big part you can not overcome luck in a single game. If someone gets decently lucky he wins the game. Doesnt matter how good the other people play.
That's odd, appreciate you making the effort of reposting. What if Markus (or someone else) would win 95/100? Would that change your mind? I've won 15/16 in my most recent games against friends and family. There's a lot of luck in Catan, I won't deny that.
@@Treeckosaurus i think comment got deleted by youtube since some of my words may have been triggerd some algorithm. I am sure Markus Heinze would win ~17/20 games on average in this very same setup. But that doesnt change that luck is more important in a single game. Imagine any other sports where a TOP 10 world guy faces a recreational hobby player. How often would the top 10 pro not win ?`Answer is never ! And that is despite the fact that Sports also include some luck. Basically if you have any game and a top 10 world guy faces an average hobbyist... as soon as the chance of the hobby guy winning is bigger than 0.... luck is more important in that game. In the long run ofc luck evens out so every longrun game is always 0% luck. you just need a big enough sample and luck evens out and therefore becomes non existent in any game. doesnt matter which game
@@Treeckosaurus seems youtube deletes a lot of comments that use percentage symbol or where you name adresses like colonist.... i made another comment that again got deleted. It was just a harmless funny story about our private catan round where i started out 1 out of 7 in our first 7 games despite being the most experienced catan player... next 10 games i went 7 in 10 though for now 8 in 17 wins ;)
Catan is a game where you can claim anything you want, it's very easy to do, and very hard for everyone else to refute your claim. So the most prominent Catan figures tend to do it a lot. Especially they like to attribute their loses to lack, and their wins to skill. Or they like attributing their loses to their opponent's mistakes, not their own mistakes, which I find amusing. "My opponent made a mistake, and that's why I lost". Ha ha! In reality the most important skill in Catan, and the most rarely mentioned, is the skill of tracking the cards in the hands of your opponents. If you are able to do that, you are immediately a much better player. But no one likes to praise themselves for their good memory. That's not a sexy skill to have. It's like going to a party and revealing that you are a statistician: your chances of getting laid are immediately dropping to zero.
First of all, welcome back! You've definitely been missed. This video was very refreshing to see. I think that's awesome you got a bunch of the best players in your country (+Trissie too I guess lol) to battle it out in an IRL game. I'm probably with you on the 60% luck with the caveat it's probably 80% of the luck against you (especially as a Colonist purist who has hundreds of hours of footage to prove it's stacked against him) Hopefully this is the first of many more videos to come since I'm still always directing people to you when talking about my all-time favorite Catan content creators. 🧱 - Brian (KellyC) - KellyC - Catan P.S Congrats Trissie (now it's time for him to play more Base than CK - "I can dream")
Hi Brian! Thank you for your kind words. This video took a long time make, so I'm delighted to see it felt refreshing - definitely something I was going for with everyone else taking the Nadim-route. With that being said: yes, I will upload more this year. This project was enormous, and with that time available now, I can create a bunch more.
The better your opponents are, the less skill has room and it becomes more about luck. It's kind of obvious, if all players are about equal level and the game is based on rolling a die.
![Treeckosaurus [Catan]](http://yt3.ggpht.com/ytc/AIdro_nRVKXeGFBefgIvY06ORFQmO0c1cs3nZ5tcP_kSXaGz8Iw=s48-c-k-c0x00ffffff-no-rj)
When I win, it's strategy, and when I lose it's luck.
Now we're getting somewhere hehe
Great video man! Tons of effort and amazing story. Well done Henk
Thanks Dylan!
60% strategy sounds about right. While the dice rolls highly influence how the game is going to be played you have still quite a lot of ways to influence how much luck you need to ultimately win the game through trading and smart development.
Nicely done Treeck. Catan is certainly a skill game and it’s a beautiful thing to share that with newer players entering the scene. Hope to see more content from you soon! - DD
Thanks!
The better the players are at the game, the more luck is the deciding factor. This happens in a lot of games unfortunately.
Yes, as long as the skill-gap is small, luck is a very important factor. But this is true at all levels I'd say.
@@Treeckosaurus It's much more prevalent at higher levels though. At some point, players just start playing optimally and luck is the only deciding factor.
Amazing video!
I think its a mix of strategy and luck 50/50 perhaps. As opposed to a game like Puerto Rico, which I consider the best board game ever, and is 99% skill. With Puerto Rico you have to think every move: if I do this, then he/she does that, and then I can do this etc etc and you also have the continuous switch in play order. So good.
Oh cool, never tried it. Been playing some Lost Cities and Carcassonne lately, which I also recommend
So many players with 50% WR, personally I had multiple 10+ winning streaks in CK, there is obviously skill involved. Assigning a number to it seems arbitrary. ELO is how it's supposed to be, as it represents the liklihood of winning against particular opponent(s).
ELO is a great way to measure indeed!
What do you think, is Catan more strategy or luck?
It can't be more luck or else there wouldn't be consistent top players and no competitive scene. There are relatively few games that are a large majority luck.
At one moment i find for myself The Castles of Burgundy and Catan became a casino game for me
It can certainly feel like that sometimes haha
I think it's mostly about luck when you are playing other great players that are equal in skill. It's like 4 Steph Curry's shooting full court shots. They might be really good at shooting the basketball and will do everything to leverage their strengths, but these are still full court shots we're talking about and everyone is equal in skill. Strategy is basically negligible at that point and luck becomes the deciding factor (like who gets to take the first shot or who gets a lucky bounce or even a draft of wind). Things might change once you start playing cities and knights, where there are more game elements players can influence and use.
ughh Steph can do 3 half court shots in a row, what other player does that? For others it might be luck, for him it's a skill😅
Keep in mind that Steph doesn't play Basketball against average players. He only plays against the top 0,0001% of the world's best players.
@@Treeckosaurus That's why I said he only plays other Stephs and not other NBA players. And they aren't playing basketball, they are just shooting full court shots in this analogy. The purpose of this way to show how the base Catan game only has a couple of viariables (like only considering shooting in basketball) for players to use which are subject to dice rolls (full court shots). Yes, you can be good at shooting, which will influence the amount of luck you can positions yourself to get. But in the the end that luck becomes overpowering when players are close in skill.
There aren't enough variables in the base Catan game to strategically use well if everyone else uses the same ones and knows what the others are using.
Everyone knows the best strategy and who has the best starting position on a given board if they are good players. At that point, you can't leverage your skills over others. There simply isn't enough game to do so. That's when the game becomes about getting lucky dice rolls.
Basketball, on the other hand (the actual game and not full court shots), has a load of variables to use strategically. That means that, despite some players being close together in purely physical abilities, there is a significant strategic element to the game that is way, way more impactful than something like a lucky full court heave at the end of a quarter.
Ah clear! Good point.
@@Baily16 the magnitude of decision making and diplomacy skills are magnified when considering performance over a large enough sample size.
Catan is mostly about luck. The strategies/skills needed to win are pretty rudimentary, unlike chess where skills determine the outcome of the game almost 100% of the time. The 1st placements heavily decided the game. Simulations show that 4th player has the lowest winning chance (bad luck!). More often than not people just play OWS setup and win the game with cities and dev cards. Even in your game, the player with the best OWS setup won. Not saying he wasn't strategic/skillful, but the odds are with him for sure. So, I would say it's 75% luck and 25% skills IMO.
How then I have 53 wins in 95 games? pure luck😂
@@krozimotskikamionizure6332 success in catan = initial settlements(15%)+ strategy(10%)+ luck(75%). so, it's not pure luck but mostly luck.
okay my comment got deleted :( there was an experiment in germany with Markus Heinze 2017 and 2018 world championship finalist vs 3 random recreational players... playing a catan game . He did not win that game. This should give you the answer. While in Catan strategy plays a big part you can not overcome luck in a single game. If someone gets decently lucky he wins the game. Doesnt matter how good the other people play.
That's odd, appreciate you making the effort of reposting.
What if Markus (or someone else) would win 95/100? Would that change your mind?
I've won 15/16 in my most recent games against friends and family. There's a lot of luck in Catan, I won't deny that.
@@Treeckosaurus i think comment got deleted by youtube since some of my words may have been triggerd some algorithm. I am sure Markus Heinze would win ~17/20 games on average in this very same setup. But that doesnt change that luck is more important in a single game. Imagine any other sports where a TOP 10 world guy faces a recreational hobby player. How often would the top 10 pro not win ?`Answer is never ! And that is despite the fact that Sports also include some luck. Basically if you have any game and a top 10 world guy faces an average hobbyist... as soon as the chance of the hobby guy winning is bigger than 0.... luck is more important in that game. In the long run ofc luck evens out so every longrun game is always 0% luck.
you just need a big enough sample and luck evens out and therefore becomes non existent in any game. doesnt matter which game
@@Treeckosaurus seems youtube deletes a lot of comments that use percentage symbol or where you name adresses like colonist.... i made another comment that again got deleted. It was just a harmless funny story about our private catan round where i started out 1 out of 7 in our first 7 games despite being the most experienced catan player... next 10 games i went 7 in 10 though for now 8 in 17 wins ;)
Catan is a game where you can claim anything you want, it's very easy to do, and very hard for everyone else to refute your claim. So the most prominent Catan figures tend to do it a lot. Especially they like to attribute their loses to lack, and their wins to skill. Or they like attributing their loses to their opponent's mistakes, not their own mistakes, which I find amusing. "My opponent made a mistake, and that's why I lost". Ha ha! In reality the most important skill in Catan, and the most rarely mentioned, is the skill of tracking the cards in the hands of your opponents. If you are able to do that, you are immediately a much better player. But no one likes to praise themselves for their good memory. That's not a sexy skill to have. It's like going to a party and revealing that you are a statistician: your chances of getting laid are immediately dropping to zero.
Interesting takes John!
First of all, welcome back! You've definitely been missed. This video was very refreshing to see. I think that's awesome you got a bunch of the best players in your country (+Trissie too I guess lol) to battle it out in an IRL game. I'm probably with you on the 60% luck with the caveat it's probably 80% of the luck against you (especially as a Colonist purist who has hundreds of hours of footage to prove it's stacked against him) Hopefully this is the first of many more videos to come since I'm still always directing people to you when talking about my all-time favorite Catan content creators. 🧱 - Brian (KellyC) - KellyC - Catan
P.S Congrats Trissie (now it's time for him to play more Base than CK - "I can dream")
Hi Brian! Thank you for your kind words. This video took a long time make, so I'm delighted to see it felt refreshing - definitely something I was going for with everyone else taking the Nadim-route. With that being said: yes, I will upload more this year. This project was enormous, and with that time available now, I can create a bunch more.
The better your opponents are, the less skill has room and it becomes more about luck. It's kind of obvious, if all players are about equal level and the game is based on rolling a die.
what is this music
At what part of the video?
Largely strategy, but a significant amount of luck The way to tell is that the same people win the tournaments repeatedly.