Peter Zeihan on Power and Global Disorder
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- Опубліковано 16 лип 2024
- Get the FREE full transcript of this interview- eepurl.com/dCDn7P
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Brendan Carr interviews Peter Zeihan, a Geopolitical Strategist and Futurist. Peter is the author of The Accidental Superpower which is featured in the Navy Reading Program. They discuss practical insights for everything from personal finance to nuclear warfare.
IN THIS EPISODE
-How to use geopolitics to makes sense of a changing world for ourselves
-How to invest your money to make sure that it grows even in a changing world
-Peter's take on who will be using nuclear weapons in the future
-And much more...
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get The Accidental Superpower - amzn.to/2PCzITx
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For more episodes be sure to subscribe - goo.gl/uEAeNp
Peter Zeihan on Power and Global Disorder
Very excited to share this interview featuring Peter Zeihan! His insights are fascinating. Feel free to share your comments below
Glad to see the interview but why so long wait?
Fabian Guzman, thanks! Yes, there were some regulations about wearing my military uniform in the video
I wish Zeihan did more interviews. He would be amazing on Joe Rogan or the Rubin Report.
maybe rogan would stop saying retarded shit about politics
@@jakesweet1000 We should be so lucky.
Omg yes
You actually listen to the Rubin Report?
why would peter go on joe rogan
Peter Zeihan is the man! I wish more people knew about him!
TalleyRanti, yes he's incredible! How did you learn about him?
I just discovered his talks on YT. Became a big fan immediately
TalleyRanti, glad to hear it! Enjoy
The thing is that he's only in his 40s, but he talks like he's been doing this for 50 years
So true! I read his book first, then realized he was pretty early in his career when he wrote it
Russia has been a force of nature for centuries. Can you really see it disappear in 40 years
boobtuber06, it's really interesting to think about. Russia's geography has often been a factor in warfighting success. I think Peter's argument is about demographics and economics that are not sustainable. What do you think?
I'm worried it won't go quietly in the night. I'm also worried bout a Putin/medvedev successor that'll be more aggressive than them. And Then who's gonna take care of their deadly arsenal as they erode?
@@boobtuber06 they certainly arent going quietly. just today attacked Ukrainian navy
Fantastic interview. Looking forward to his third book.
George Winston, thank you! and yes, I'm looking forward to them too. Hopefully we will do another interview to spread the word when it comes out
I've listened to a handful of Peter's presentations and this was the first time I heard of the Stratfor connection. That's when I realized why he has become so good at gathering all the info and distilling it into useable actionable information. When it was free some years ago, I loved going "there" to read about various areas in the world that I wanted to understand better. I used to live in The Netherlands and have grown children and now grandchildren who live there. It's easy to think, as Germany goes, so do the Dutch. But it isnt always that simple. My present wife comes from Belarus (look it up! Lol!) and the place it literally occupies on the map, makes for some interesting reading just from a historical perspective, but in light of its relationships with Russia, Ukraine, Poland (new NATO member) and the Baltic states, not to mention its president for life, there is a lot to learn just from that corner of the world. As for Argentina's future rise, I'd love to hear/read more about that alone. Where does Peter see them getting their energy needs from, for example? Are they really that self-contained? Anyway, thank you for the interview. Very well thought out questions for a guy who has considered the answers carefully. Many thanks!
Stratford got me into Geopolitics. Back then it was George Friedman” the Texas Hungarian “ that was the founder.
@@dagramirez Argentina has shale just like Americans and I bet if they check out offshore they should have oil since Brazil has oil.
Tampa0123456789 Argentina has large shale reserves but the offshore oil is more within the vicinity of the Falkland Islands which still belong to the U.K. So Argentina won't get that oul
Insightful Peter Zeihan is!!
totally!
Thanks for this interview Brendan...i think this is extremely valuable, especially now
Thanks for sharing. What do you find especially valuable now?
@@BradCarr_ Well, now that Oil went negative and is extremely cheap, this to me is a good time to start averaging into downstream Oil producers and Pipeline transport companies. The dividends could help you wait for the next surge...peter in previous interviews also mentioned Oil being a powder keg in the Middle East as these countries struggle without the US ocean and navigation security they have provided for the last 70 years which will wreak havoc in the middle east and china since they will battle over resources in an unsecure world after de-globalization and the withdrawal of the United States who have policed these waters and allowed secure navigation for all these countries transporting goods including energy.....this = would send prices higher and benefit the US companies because of our well established shale now...that's my thinking any way...cheers
@@smb2265 very thoughtful answer, thank you and best of success to you
I read the book very much enjoyed the read. i felt some of the opinions were a little fantastical which is fair as there is more to how the world works then just Geoploitics. Worth reading especially if this kind of topic is new to you. Well written and is easy to digest.
That's what I'm waiting for!
Doğukan Taş glad you got what you were waiting for! Which part was most important to you?
@@BradCarr_ I'm from Turkey, which obviously makes the regional hegemons part important. Last couple of years, people are very pesimistic about Turkey. But as a person that live in Turkey. I don't feel that bad. If you compare the Turkey with its neighbors, It's a giant that ready to swallow them. It's not just Middle East. Reason why Eastern Europe was relatively stabile in past few decades is European Union and NATO. When the interest of US finish and EU is collapsed. We have Middle East 2 with not enough young population. And we have shrinking power of Russia in Caucasia. There is only one player in the region that fill these gaps. I wish he would talk about Turkey more insightfully. İt would be nice topic. Thank you for this genuine and insightfully conversation with Mr. Zeihan. Good Job. Keep it up!
@@dogukantas8720 thank you for the generous compliment! And you are welcome :)
How do you find all these great people to interview?
I Car, thanks for asking! At first, most of my guests had a Navy connection and the interviews were distributed internally through the Navy Leadership and Ethics Center while I was on active duty. Some are simply generous people that I've met in real life too.
yoooooooo BIG PETE IN THE HOUSE!!!
Don't mess with the Zeihan.
ha! true
Thanks - Peter Zeihan and George Friedman are my favorites when it comes to Geo-Politics analysis. Hopefully, you can get George on as well.....
That would be fun!
You should interview Goerge Friedman next! Awesome stuff I always look forward to listening to these on my drive to work.
B. Anthony, thank you very much
I wonder what Peter thinks about disclosure and how it will affect geo politics.
How about a question about what a country that "is or will be over soon" actually looks like. Mass exodus, famine, begging from the UN, regional aggression. When Russia fails, what will that look like?
that is an interesting question, I'll try to work it into our upcoming conversation
Anyone even know what he said at 19:45?
the closed captions look accurate, if you want to read them to clarify
Interesting... any word on when his new book is out?
Kyle Martin, thanks! Not sure of dates on the new book, but I'll be reaching out in the spring for another conversation with Peter for new updates
He reminded me of George Friedman a bit... I'm surprised this is the first I have heard of this guy but will probably read his new book now for sure. Thanks for the interview.
@@kylen4701 glad you enjoyed it! I believe George Friedman was a mentor and employer of Peter in the past. Do you like Friedman?
He should talk with Jordan Peterson
19:44 "for example..." what?
Anyone get what he said at 19.43?
Don't buy energy companies buy pre and post energy infrastructure producers.
Vow, half of the 3000 years of Chinese history was under Mongolia rule. Was that right? I seriously doubted it
It is true that foreign dynasties (Mongols and Manchus; Yuan and Qing) ruled China proper for 365 of the 641 years from 1271 til the abdication of Puyi in 1912, and that is actually a bit more than half.
Around 11:30 he mentions the us defict. it seems like he thinks the US GVT is a currency user and not a currency issuer. Federal spending, including deficits drive private wealth and economic exspansion so I'm not sure what he means.
A lot of what this guy has predicted to happen, were already seeing start to occur in the world.
Foster Caldaroni, thanks for sharing! What in particular are you thinking of?
Dude... those candy wrappers you keep rustling while Peter talks.... rookie mistake. If you're gonna make noise, turn off your mic. Otherwise priceless presentation... thanks for hooking & reeling Peter in!
AvarielBlackwing, thank you. when did you hear candy wrappers? I'll look at it for my edits, may be a hiss in my equipment
@@BradCarr_ (1:28 - 1:44... chewing on chips) (2:10 *crunch*) (3:12 - 3:21 squeaky)... it just goes on & on.... not sure what the culprit is, but it does detract from Peter's presentation. When you talk, however, all the noise stops. Methinks you should ask someone you know with high-pitched tone acuity to lend an ear and ask him/her to corroborate the findings. More spots: (6:05 or so) (7:02 - 7:09) (7:35-7:38+)... I don't think you need an exhaustive list. It runs all the way through the vid. (9:01 - 9:05) (9:34 - 9:38) etc. etc.
@@avarielblackwing6613 thank you for the thorough feedback! I will try to get it better in the future. A great guest like Peter deserves a high quality finished product
@@BradCarr_ 23:00->
@@pinktoes3875 thank you
Great interview! But the eating in the back ground is very disruptive.
Patrick Morton, thank you! And what point did you hear eating? If you have a time stamp I'll check it out for future editing. It might just be a hiss in my equipment
Moving our nuclear power to Alaska a few years ago (launching strategic point w the russians) tells us that russia is a very real threat. But seeing the relationship we have w the russians during the time putin is president he seems to calm things down to his interest in being in power. But in a time when Putin is replaced and russia will have nothing to loose, a war w us is very likely to happen. What can we do now to avoid it? It would be in the best interest of our countries coming generations to do so.
Listening to the radio and looking at a picture doesn't work for me.
@Jim Brannan, what would you do to make it better?
Refain? I think he says refining.
Dude are you eating Cheetos while Peter's talking?
Galipheo, yes they are flamin hot cheetos to be specific. Ha, actually I"m getting that feedback a lot but I wasn't eating. Does it sound like a hiss in my equipment maybe?
No doubt Peter is a well informed and intelligent guy. But despite intelligence and good information, it’s really hard to see into the future. There are just so many variables we can’t plug into the equations or computer models, because we can’t see out-of-ordinary events coming. The further we try to see, the more likely we are to be wrong. This was interesting though. Thanks for taking the time to put it on YT
@Jeremy Stewart, thanks for sharing. What got you interested in Peter's work?
Brendan Carr Probably the same guy that perhaps has influenced Peter.-Tim Marshall “Prisoners of Geography” It’s an incredible jumpstart for anyone curious about geopolitics. I hear references from Tim’s book in almost all of Peter’s talks. I could be wrong...Just wondering who else you might want to interview?
@@jeremystewart2180 ooh, I haven't read that one yet. I'm pretty open about guests. Just love good conversation. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Black Swan, Antifragile) is definitely on my list though. Any suggestions?
Brendan Carr I highly recommend Nassim’s interview several years ago on “Planet Money” podcast. I think he is as relevant today as he was then. I don’t have anyone in mind, but like you, I enjoy thoughtful conversation. I wish you lots of luck!!
@@jeremystewart2180 thank you for the suggestion. I'll check it out. Best of luck to you too!
This is greAt; please don't take this Down
thanks boobtuber06, I'll do my best to take care of it :)
Canada has over 400 000 immigrant coming in each year, We arent dying
he means people that contribute
Vermilion Most immigrants to Canada are Chinese or Indian and have been screened for education and skills and English. Do your research
non white immigration and non white births do,s mean the country is dying.
The physical constraints of Canada are truly remarkable too. Three sections effectively split the country. Similar to Russia, hard to keep the glue of the country together, with those physical constraints.
Canada's immigrants are already older, mid forties. Average age of the immigrant for the USA is young 20s from Mexico, Central and South America. Our immigrants work, contribute, consume etc....for a very long time. Older immigrants, not nearly as much, but you still have to take care of them with healthcare, but you didn't get the input from them when they were younger. Also, younger immigrants have kids, older, not so much. Canada is going to be in very bad shape since you guys are going from a very capital rich country to not so much, as people retire, and you won't have the younger demographics so not enough consumers or replacements to build back up the capital. Your only saving grace is that you are neighbors to the USA, that is the only thing that saves Canada.
Ack! It is not Zee, it is Zed! We invented the language, so you hop to our tune. Spoken as a Canadian. :P
Cant the US still guarentee the international system.....but for a price?
How would that look?
@@BradCarr_ more of the nations gdp devoted to NATO and defense
@@dukedematteo1995 interesting idea, maybe a tough sell?
@@BradCarr_ maybe a small protection tariff for assuring free and open passage throughout the oceans....something to incentivize the Americans going foward. It is hard to figure out exactly what...but like Peter was saying, its been 30 years since the Wall fell, and the US should be getting a little more out of this.
I'm amazed how little the political left understands how America is directly responsible for the post ww2 reduction in state violence and the massive reduction in poverty globally. Not to mention winning the Cold War against the Soviets and communism. According to the left post ww2 America is an imperial monster and a force of pure evil.....I wonder why they are so confused.
@@dukedematteo1995 your tariff idea is elegant. And yes, the oppression narrative is always strong for some reason
Japan. Turkey, and France are far from energy independent. How are they equipped to become regional leaders?
He thinks that France can get most of what it needs from Algeria, maybe a little from a couple of other close African sources, and some nuclear power. He thinks Turkey doesn't need much and can take what it does need from the Iraqi Kurds or from the Caucuses, And he thinks there will be an oil war between Japan and China and Japan will win.
turkey is right next to the middle east. i think they'll do just fine for energy.
@@jakesweet1000 Turkey is dependent on the ME for energy. How does that make them a leading nation?
@@donaldclifford5763 they are better at war than the middle eastern countries by a long shot
@@jakesweet1000 Iran has more influence outside its borders, militarily and otherwise. Turkey can't even defend their interests on Cypress. I just don't see any near future Turkish ascendancy.
Zeihan is interesting to listen to, but I can't see how the nations he's mentioned doing well in future can exist in splendid isolation, due to contagion effects.
Since when has Sweden nuclear missile capabilities?
Daniel Bylund swedes used to test nuclear enrichment with the French in case they ever wanted nukes but so far Sweden hasn't kept any
28:48 I would additionally put Poland as a 6th wild card if they can tackle their future Population crisis and get out of the regulatory strangleholds of the EU
NATO? No need for it? I saw this coming also, a while back, wrote a blog about it:linkyou.blog/will-sam-harris-please-wake-up/
Russia will still be around. They’re implementing actual policies to promote birth rates and are trying to diversify their economy. They might go through tough times, but the nineties was probably the low ebb of their situation.
I agree. And they will keep their nuclear arsenal.The only question is, how hard will they push west?
He mentions the Russian policies in the book...straight up paying women to have children. He says they have the children instead of an abortion, then as soon as they get the money they drop the babies at an orphanage which will turn them out on the street when they are fourteen of fifteen years old. He doesn't think they're good policies. He also points out the problems with the policies in Sweden and Japan, and with China's two child policy.
@@srdxxx I'm skeptical that the number of people abusing the system that way is statistically significant, but not having read up on that thoroughly I'll reserve judgment.
The Russians survived world war 1, the russian civil war, communism, ww2, more communism, I think they're more resilient than he gives them credit for, that's all.
@@donaldclifford5763 I personally don't think they'll push west all that much, and I certainly hope they don't given that it would mean more violence.
@@monolith94 Ukraine and the Baltic states are the most vulnerable. Crimea is a fait accompli. As is South Ossetia in Georgia.
he will be the reason the american middle class become fascist (he's eloquent though)
Sorry, but the Americans made the transition to fascism when FDR died.
@pete marshall, what makes you say that?
He's wrong on Canada's population growth, as the only difference between us and the US is that we have no plans to build walls, and never will regardless of which party forms the federal government. We have identical generations of boomers, gen-xers and millenials, and pretty much full employment in the areas where most of the population is located. Data is indicating that immigration is the reason why wage rates for unskilled workers have not been rising (excluding provincial gov't mandated minimum wage increases), which has dampened inflation. The temporary decline of the oil industry is just that- the shale oil nirvana in the US has a much shorter shelf life than has been marketed.
Frank Quitely this is so wrong on so many levels. Firstly Canada is one of the most rapidly aging nations on earth despite a high migration rate. And no your economy is not doing well long term as Alberta is the only province in the country that is a net payer of taxes to the federal government. The rest of the country are net recipients of Albertan tax money and albertas prime export is tar sands oil sold in the USA market. Your entire country is reliant on selling oil from a single province to the Americans to fund and aging population in the rest of the country that is already very unproductive outside a few major cities e.g. Toronto
@@sirsurnamethefirstofhisnam7986
Ya know, Rory, just two minutes on something called "Google" yields a cornucopia of information regarding Canada's population and economic growth, and guess what? None of it supports anything you say!
Canada's population will be well over 40 million by the late 2050's, second in population growth among the G8 only to the US (and maybe not second should Trump get his wall).
Oil and gas account for 20% of exports; but combined, autos, machines, electronics, gems/precious metals and wood products make up 33.3% of Canadian exports. So there is no truth whatsoever to your claim that the Canadian economy is utterly dependent on Alberta's oil and gas. As a matter of fact, the 20% statistic for oil and gas exports includes production from other Canadian provinces, notably BC (natural gas), Saskatchewan (oil sands bitumen) and Newfoundland and Labrador (off shore drilled crude). By the way, Saskatchewan's oil sands reserves are larger than Alberta's, and Newfoundland and Labrador keep discovering and bringing new wells on stream. However, once technology to "pelletize" bitumen has been perfected so that the pellets can be easily transported by rail from Alberta to BC ports and thence to Asian markets to be sold at world prices (rather than being sold at a discount in the US, as is the current practice), the presently depressed Alberta oil economy should be experiencing a revival.
As for transfer payments, the more income an individual province makes, the more they are paying in taxes to the federal government, which then takes A PORTION of those taxes to make transfer payments to other provinces based on economic need and population. Albertans still benefit from federal funding of hospitals, universities (which often do research for the energy industry), the military (CFB Cold Lake, CFB Edmonton, and CFB Suffield) and the RCMP, as unlike Ontario and Quebec, Alberta chooses not to fund its own provincial police service. Albertans who are out of work due to the impact of market forces on the energy sector know that they will receive unemployment insurance cheques from the federal government, just as corporations and small business owners can count on generous depreciation allowances and other tax deduction/credit goodies from the Canada Revenue Agency.
Finally, Alberta is not the only province not receiving transfer payments- neither do BC, Saskatchewan or Newfoundland and Labrador. But when the shoe inevitably ends up on the other foot, and the energy producing provinces are experiencing difficulties, the AI and Quantum computing powerhouses in the non-energy producing provinces will pick up the slack.
@Yayrwe
What do you mean by, "dissolved"? Evidence?
www.populationpyramid.net/canada/2017/
www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2017/
Stop, just stop. You're wrong. The US has a chimney demographic pyramid with higher fertility rates; Canada is top-heavy without a replacement generation for the boomers. This is not a debatable point.
Guy has no idea what he's talking about
why?
@@BradCarr_ US cannot NOT run a deficit, due to its currency status. His comment on clinton 'balancing' the budget only proves my point. The minute US$ looses reserve status, it'll be like Russia 1992-8 period, combine that with ever increasing polarisation of US society .... good luck mate!
The analytical overview that Peter Zeihan presents here is on firm ground Aengrod. You, Sir, seem to offer a critique with little in the way of alternative discussion.
@@pwjackson888 With all due respect etc. You must be joking. But .... time will prove all .... bs vendors are just that, bs vendors :-)
@Aengrad I hear ya. I am still on the fence about this guy. I have seen a couple of his stuff He Has excellent Data and is well spoken. But if you do your homework you start to see holes in his stuff. After a while he sounds like a cheerleader for USA. One again I will give him the benefit of the doubt.
sounds like a preamble for the project for the new american century.
has nothing been learnt in the last twenty years??
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_for_the_New_American_Century