FARMCON 2023 - Peter Zeihan
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- Опубліковано 27 сер 2024
- Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical strategist: the study of how people and places impact financial, economic, cultural, political and military developments. He presents customized executive briefings to a wide array of audiences which include, but are not limited to, financial professionals, Fortune 500 firms, energy investors, and a mix of industrial, power, agricultural and consulting associations and corporations. Zeihan is also an award-winning author with NY Times Best Seller, "The End of the World is Just the Beginning". This book maps out the next world: a world where countries or regions will have no choice but to make their own goods, grow their own food, secure their own energy, fight their own battles, and do it all with populations that are both shrinking and aging. With Russia's latest military moves and all of the uncertainty with China, I thought there was no better time to hear from Zeihan and take a look through his lens. Remember, with any business, you need to get the larger macro view correct. This is a must for gaining a better understanding of the larger macro picture!
FARMCON 2024 - January 3rd and 4th in Kansas City
Tickets: www.farmcon.com
fascinating. would be nice to hear some counterpoints from Peter’s cohorts. He appears to be the only geopolitical strategist willing to put himself in front of a youtube audience.
Ray Dalio gives his view on a more Pro china view, I don’t think he’s an analyst but he’s a billionaire so some people trust him
@@BrightWendigohow does Dalio confront china’s demographic problem? Immigration?
@@texasoilfields ai and automation
@@texasoilfields I don’t quite buy it but I’ve never been to china so I have no idea if they’re as advanced as us or not, if the job safety videos I’ve seen are any indicator though… they’re still developing
@@BrightWendigo gotcha. You are correct, they are not as developed as we are, by quite some margin. AI is still some ways off to be any good, automation will have to be key
"Buying within NA is not just a patriotic issue but an economic issue for the next couple of decades." Thought provoking and very stimulating comment from an entroprenurial point of view!
I'll only buy absolutely necessary things from ally countries.
Whether it is or is not is academic. the goods arent there to buy.
@@Withnail1969 Some are getting there. Zeihan was encouraging a number of industries to re-shore back in 2015 if I recall right. At least some had a head start on the rush home, and some have had a year or two to get cracking by now.
Going back to rewatch these lectures and seeing what’s happening now it reinforces the fact that Peter is generally correct in his assertions.
Meh. Informing people of what the future holds using a believable narrative is impressive-seeming, but also foolish. In 2022, I watched him incorrectly predict mass famine due to this war. More recently he was saying that good crop yields saved the day.
In recent months, I’ve seen him make inflation predictions without discussing interest rates or money supply. This doesn’t make his take on inflation novel and mind-blowing. Simply makes it absurd and worth ignoring. He’s a superb storyteller with a lot of information. But I wouldn’t risk holding his opinions above those of other informed people. He’s no more of a prophet, no less limited by ideological preference.
Smart man, nothing more
No famine yet, Ukraine is exporting millions of tons of grain again since they turned parts of the Russian Black Sea fleet into submarines, gas prices are back down in Europe, inflation is going down... pork sales in China is down though for new year from what I hear, but not from a lack of supplies, more a lack of customers, indicating economic issues.
@@zapfanzapfan Global Wheat Stocks are at an 8 year low. We're collectively dipping into our stocks to even out disruption.
You can tell Pete's working his ass off trying to get just a hint of a laugh/response from the audience. Pete is the best 👌
like bros just raise your hand once in a while for the heck of it 😆
He didn’t talk about guns or God, not the speakers they’re used to hearing from about the state of our country/world lol
Farmers don't have much of a sense of humor. You do a lot of gambling that things will turn out. California has had bad weather for farming until this month.
Love a new Zeihan speech
But there's only 10% new in each new format.
@@SolaceEasy If the state of the world changed more than 10% every month, it would be uninhabitable.
Thank God it's mostly the same.
"new"
I listen to every one of his speeches and podcasts. It's very insightful
I wish he had his own podcast
But I don’t think that’s really his thing
@@ryanjones3043 he has a UA-cam channel and does daily videos. Not a podcast but they are about 5 min long and very insightful.
Me too. Sometimes though I think he’s a little alarmist.
@@ThinkHarderPlz yeah I watch those. They’re actually pretty cool I just wish they were longer
His podcasts should be taken as entertainment. He has so little real information. His analysis is based on several piece of stats from varying sources and thus lacks coherence of input.
Holy shit, the United States' geography is overpowered.
Peter is the best economic and global strategist i have listened to. Great speaker
Did you fact-check him?
@@qqx154 You can look up all these statistics worldwide. They are also on the government websites. There are several other strategist that agree with him
@@qqx154 I dont trust anyone at face value and I agree with 99% of his points but 1 or 2 dealing with the US, and his predictions from 2013/2014 came true down to the month so to say he has got it down to an art says something
Thanks for the full size slides and for posting this very informative video!
Where are the full set of slides? Only in the video or would you just please indicate with a URL or location to download.
I could listen to Peter talk about anything.
Peter's analysis is ten times better than anyone else's -- and for North American 'producers', his outlook is positive. The only serious danger is nuclear annihilation (as it has been for more than half a century).
You cannot nuke a supper power, with out dying your self, even nuking a non nuclear power is the end of you... To put in perspective. If lets say 2 random countries. Brazil nukes Argentina and Argentina doesnt have nukes and just dies from 100 nuclear warheads. That radiation and damage to the world would reach even Russia. Radiation, cooling of the planet, reducing crop production = world wide famine, complete disruption of trade.
You think any other country could just stand by? No, the rest of the world would make sure the aggressor country that used nukes fucking dies. Because nuclear weapon impact is across the world reaching, billions will die in the next decades across the world.
@@SimplyVanis I agree 💯
I like me some Peter Zeihan but I will nitpick one point: the Javelins. The recent AAR coming out of the Kyiv defense indicates the Javelins weren't used on trucks. It was the effective use of artillery that really mauled the halted columns. A PKM MG is sufficient to strafe a truck column...not to mention the 12.7mm mg. Using a Javelin or any other ATGM for a truck is a waste of an asset.
He bullshits on the spot, knows the right thing to say and sells whole lotta books. what can i say!!!
@@jessefaw everyone has a gift... unfortunately not everyone knows how to use it to their advantage...
Thanks for sharing 👍🏽
Javelins were most certainly used on supply trucks that the Russians used. The fuel trucks were mobile and required javelins to take them out.
Artillery for Ukraine only became realistic when US systems were employed for targeting and those tended to be used on fixed artillery placements that the Russians had.
@@jessefaw You can say something that's actually true, to start...
Excellent lecture, Peter.
Philmont is the Boy Scout Ranch in New Mexico. My Eagle Scout grandson has been there twice for a 2 week track & loved both times. He is planning to attend the Naval Academy as his choice of university. Not your typical Gen Z teen.
Good upbringing 👍🏽
There in ‘94. Lucky lottery winner to able to go now.
Finally Zeihan's 2023 update
We've done fast energy transitions before. Every time the US made the switch from wood to coal to oil it did it faster than the previous one, and in each one of them there were people who said there wasn't enough of it to run the economy. Saying there isn't enough lithium to decarbonize is like a medieval peasant who's only ever owned a small knife saying cars are impossible because it's too much steel. Lithium is a more common element in nature than iron, it's three protons and four neutrons. Copper is a thing we used to mine in this country before the price dropped to below what our labor costs could compete with, I imagine enhanced demand will bring some deposits in the upper midwest back into profitibility.
Besides, looking at storage and nuclear is really too long of a timeframe to be concerning ourselves with right now. Right now we need to work on getting to 100% renewable when it's available, and using natural gas when it isn't. That alone would be a massive step up. A high-capacity, renewables/nuclear-runs-first grid with gas peaker plants is one that looks a lot more like what electric managers have dealt with in the past, and would set the stage for energy storage being profitable.
Zeihan is getting better, when he talks about Brazil. Just some few years ago, his opinions about Brazil were unbelievably wrong and off the mark. Now he seems to have done better research. The point is, Brazil is bigger than continental US, and it is not easy to have a one size fits all issues in Brazil. Brazil is complex and it is not an easy task for foreigners trying to gauge all the complexities of the country.
One thing Zeihan ignores is the wonderful progress Brazil has been making in tropical agronomics, wherein we are doing some near-miracles in the agriculture output. The matter of wheat is an example. Brazil has always been a big wheat importer, due essentially to two reasons, one because wheat is a temperate climate culture and the bulk of Brazil is in the tropical area, and the other is because our next-door neighbor Argentina is one of the greatest wheat exporters and they are our second biggest trading partner, and they buy a lot of goods from us and pay with wheat, etc. But we have succeeded in developing a wheat variety which can be grown in the tropical area, and the results have been very, very, encouraging. We are succeeding in producing wheat in the backlands of the Northeastern states of Brazil, which used to suffer from chronic drought, and which have always been big wheat importers, but the cost of transportation has always been high, because the distances from Argentina to the Northeastern states is truly continental, and the quality of the roads were not good, etc. And what we have discovered is that this wheat produced in the tropics have a higher output per acre (50% more than in Argentina) and has a higher protein content (because of the higher exposure to sun rays). So, as the world begins to suffer a critical shortage of wheat, and the prices will go higher, the Brazilian wheat producers in the tropical areas will begin to increase their planted area and so the wheat business is going to be a profitable culture in Brazil which will generate most welcome extra income to the locals.
Zeihan does not know also that Brazil has done an incredible engineering achievement, solving for good the problem of lack of water in that traditionally drought-stricken region of Brazil, the North East, which represents about 18% of the country’s area, meaning by that that Brazil will be able to rely on an extra 18% of agricultural area to increase its production and export of food.
Another area which Zeihan seems to ignore is that we have also made very important advances in our infrastructure system, improving and increasing our railroad, road and waterways systems, rendering them more efficient and contributing to lower the cost of transportation per ton.
One issue which Zeihan got correctly is the matter of fertilizers, but things are not - thanks God - as bad as he might think. He got it right when he says Brazil is an importer of truly gargantuan amounts of the three basic fertilizers (nitrogen, phosphate and potash) and he is right about the extreme dependence of these fertilizers in order to make the Brazilian Mid-West keeping producing all sort of grains as it does. This happened because Brazil has been governed by left-wing governments since 1986 until 2018 and the government took ideologically-based decisions throughout these decades forbidding or hampering the local fertilizers production in order to foster the purchase from Russia and Ukraine. President Bolsonaro took office in 2018, he was the first right-wing president we had since 1986, and immediately upon arriving in office he pointed out this very serious and strategic weakness of Brazil, i.e., its utter dependence on Russian and Ukrainian fertilizers, and he did two things: one, he went personally to Russia and agreed with Putin the purchase in one go of all the fertilizers Brazil needed for the crops 2023 and 2024; and the other thing he ordered was the reopening of the fertilizers mines in Brazil. It will take time to have them fully operational, but in times of national crisis, all the necessary effort will be placed in order to expedite the domestic production. The left returned to power now, in 2023 with that kleptocrat Lula, and the left is viscerally against the agribusiness because for obvious reasons, the farmers are capitalist by nature and do not like to hear that silly talk of farm collectivization, etc, which the left is so fond of. The Brazilian agribusiness sector, which is thriving and dynamic, will never buy the socialist crap and will always vote against the left, and this is why the left in Brazil has a grudge against it and will always try to undermine and hamper the agribusiness because the prosperity of the Brazilian agribusiness is seen as a threat for the left. Essentially this is the situation now.
But as the world is entering in a global crisis, and as both Russia and China are about to go down the drain in the coming years, the two main responsible for creating trouble and instability all over the world, and also in Latin America, probably the left in Brazil will lose its impetus and will be forced to work together with the Brazilian agribusiness and not against it, because hampering the Brazilian agribusiness will mean helping to create famine all over the world, and I do not think the Brazilian left will want to be associated with such disaster.
In any event, whereas it is an open question whether Brazil will continue to be or not in the next years the great granary of the world, it is absolutely guaranteed that Brazil will be able to keep feeding its own population.
Could this wheat variant be up for export in Southeast Asia?
@@ardeenroydiamante I believe so, I cannot see any reason why it could not. But this grain revolution which is taking place in Brazil, wheat among them is still in the initial phase. What has already been proven is that it is commercially feasible, but this is a completely new culture in the Brazilian Northeastern region and it will take some time until the local farmers get used to planting it and treating it, etc. So, even though this is the way, even though Brazil will unavoidably become self-sufficient and most certainly an exporter of wheat in the coming future, the question which remains open is how long it will take for that to happen.
if politics dont get in the way.
@@ericjohnson7234 true enough. Brazil is undergoing precisely the same situation the US is facing, presenting a great divide between left and right. But you see, we must measure time of nations under a different perspective. If you watch Brazilian performance since our independence in 1822, you will conclude that little by little, slowly, we are equating our problems and solving them. We can be optimistc vis-à-vis the future, despite the fact that the left has taken a strong foothold in Brazil now. There is a fundamental change in the left's position, I suspect, which is the fact that both Russia and China, the two main upholders and financiers of the left not only in Brazil but in the whole American continent - including the US - are going through very, very, very rough weather and I suspect they will end up quite soon dealing not with rough weather but with huge political and economic tsunamis. The impression I have is that the downfall of the Soviet Union was a disaster for the Western European left, with the complete demoralization and dissolution of the up to then very strong and active Communist Parties of France and Italy, for instance. With the fall of the Soviet Union the left in the whole european continent suffered a very severe blow, but the left redoubled their efforts in Latin America, probably to compensate for its losses in Europe, and there in the past decades it was able to achieve really astounding successes. But the left in Latin America was able to achieve the huge success it was able to reap thanks to the active and decisive assistance by both Russia and China, and most likely than not, in this year of 2023 these two countries will be facing so many internal and domestic crisis that they will hardly have the time and resources to send to the left in Latin America. I suspect the left in Latin America in the coming yearswill be left to its own fate, without resources, and will dwindle down.
The left is strong in Brazil, true enough, but the right is also thriving, it is dynamic, rich and powerfull, and Brazil has a powerful economy, powerful and efficient finance, with an independent Central Bank which knows its business, and has become self-sufficient in energy and has a powerful domestic market (neither Russia nor China have one, which is a permanent source of weakness for their economy).
You compare the Brazilian situation with the Argentinean situation, which is the second economy of South America, and you will see the difference can be measured in light-years. The Argentineans are not entitle to look to the future with optmisism, because Argentina has been moving backwards since 1900 and is heading to economic oblivion. There the left can do a lot of damage (which is what it is doing for one hundred years, which explains the deplorable status of Argentina). But in Brazil even though the left is capable of doing considerable depredation I guess Lula and his ilk will not have a free reign and 4 years fly. Brazil will overcome this difficulty too...
Took you 30 mins to type out a large line of bull shit, Brazil does nothing but make shirts.
Rather than Russians "forgetting" fuel and food, I think they were trying to carry over a Blitzkrieg, rapid attack advancing quickly because light (no supplies to carry that would have slowed them down). So sure they were to win straight-away...
He's obviously being ironic when he says that. Some people tend to take some of his sarcastic takes in too much of a literal sense.
@@utubefuku7132 yeah fair... I picked up on his irony, still I thought strange that he didn't mention this as a rather tried and tested military strategy...
They didnt forget fuel and food. They drove back out of Ukraine the same way they came. He's just making it up.
Somewhat oversimplified, yet entertaining and insightful. Thank you ))
I'm a designer, and am recovering from a stroke. I've been told by my cmpany that i'm not useful unless I can work 50 hrs a week.
I have been doing research on automated agriculture that can help with many of these issues. Who do I reach out to? Want to help...💡🍅
Partner up with India, y'all can push your goods problem 30years down the line.
Enough time to build an Industrial Empire for yourself.
Partner with a democracy than a dictatorships or mobs 😒
This will also bring people in India out of poverty.
India does not seem to want to partner with anybody. Until that changes ...
35:41 ❤” The idea that private citizens have agency?! Chairman Xi has no way to even proses that. “
That rings true and makes me smile.
Thanks
Only 3.5K likes ??
Every government policy maker, every worker, every student, every consumer in every country should have been reading Peter’s books for the last decade. Courses in Demographics should be mandatory in every school, along with supply chain intricacies, from freshman year high school. The lack of proper education for American Millennials is criminal.
He's talking so easily about the loss of Germany. All the US government would need to do is stopping to finance the green movement and Germany could immediately start drilling for its own natural gas in substancial numbers.
Germany would have no reason to hastily move its industry out of the country. But that's what you want.
Germany has a stable agriculture but the powers that be want to have valuable regions declared strict eco regions over night.
Basically Peter is full of shit and proud of it.
i like Zeihan, but i think he'd give better analysis if he dialed down the hyperbole a little.
He's talking so easily about the loss of Germany. All the US government would need to do is stopping to finance the green movement and Germany could immediately start drilling for its own natural gas in substancial numbers.
Germany would have no reason to hastily move its industry out of the country. But that's what you want.
Germany has a stable agriculture but the powers that be want to have valuable regions declared strict eco regions over night.
Basically Peter is full of shit and proud of it.
yeah Germany's one of the most advanced countries in the world. it's not a silly little empire like Russia.
@@darkbeastzero and it's already artificially abolished by now!
Germany's middle class and industry wont pose any competition threat anymore to any globalist anglo multinational corp.
It's done. It's over with.
Brilliant analysis
10:25 peter continues to say this. the soviets lost around 15k-26k troops over 10 years in Afghanistan
Dude is just a crook who sells hope. He is wrong on many things including the history of Chinese demografic politics, US dollar's dynamics in global financial system, fate of Crimea... and yes, Russian/Soviet military history
@@neutralevil1917 and then also predicts the russia ukrain war years out from its date with those same conclusions
@@WorldIsWierd So?
@@neutralevil1917 using a circular logic fallacy to criticize the speaker tells us all we need to know about your ability to apply logic and reasoning to your critique.
@@bbsluswimmer Well good for you, crook fans
I like that you chose "Zoomers" instead of "GenZ."
All these people commenting that Zeihan is wrong, a grifter, etc.. Without ever stating anything specific. Is it because you dont like what hes saying on an emotional level so it must be wrong? Idk man humans are confusing
he is a grifter because he said like 15 years ago China would collapse by 2020 ... people like him make predictions like that and when they don't come to pass suddenly make no reflections on that, they just move on to even more insane predictions, also he IMO is a deep state/war business shill so it is his "job to sell war" to normies
Alot of the stuff he says is very specific, and so without detailed knowledge of a given subject you can't really factcheck him. Couple this with the impressive bouncing between vastly different subjects and rapid fire statements of fact and it becomes very difficult to be sure of everything he says.
I have seen some comments from people with knowledge of the steel industry correcting small points, but I don't know what overall impact it has on what he says.
Other than that, you can look up certain things he says. For example, that Ukraine captured more tanks in Izyum than they started the war with. Well, Ukraine captured 100 tanks in that whole month, maybe 80 of which would have been from Izyum (not my estimate). Ukraine started the war with approximately 987 tanks and a further 1132 in storage, many being upgraded T64s.
Great stuff!
One point of criticism on Peters conclusions. The Crimean Canal was shut down in 2014, and reopened in 2022. The Crimean Peninsula had been living without that water for 8 years before the invasion. It's not likely after 1 year of operating then stopping there will be a mass casualty event from starvation on the peninsula.
Using Google Maps, you can see that the sluice gates are located on the South bank (Russian controlled) of the Dnipro River. The coordinates are 46.764027, 33.395021. Ukraine dammed the canal in 2014, cutting off the fresh water supply to Crimea and causing the land in Crimea to become unarable. I suspect that one season of fresh water irrigation has not been enough to reverse the damage from the previous 8 years. I still think the entire war is over Sevastapol and the projection of Russian influence into the middle east and specifically Syrian warm water ports.
I question your overall premise that Russia needs these 7 critical areas to protect from being invaded. In the past this may have been true but today not so since they have tactical nuclear weapons. Anyone that try to invade their land could be easily stop with just a few tacticalnukes. Russia would have no problems using them, I believe.
It’s less that they actually need them and more that the people in charge are ex-KJB who have believed that they need them there entire lives and sent about to change there opinions
I think it is more important that no one wants to invade Russia because land grab wars are no longer supported by anyone.
If any nation did invade Russia they would be seen as evil by the vast majority of the world and likely nations would rally to defend Russia because this is the 21st century and land grab war is stupid.
If Russia was less focussed on defending themselves, and not being the evil ones starting land wars, most of the nation of the world were open to accepting them as friends and partners.
The stupidity and villainy of starting a land war in the 21st century IS the only reason Russia is under any threat at this time.
Remember to love the people of Russia while we despise their leadership.
"You will watch a billion people starve to death, BUT, with some cash in your pocket you will get over it" Really? From what I've seen of the US over the past 60+ years, a correct assessment of our collective insanity...our collective inhumanity.
"feed the world... or fuel" is a heck of a lot to take in.
51:50 what if we freeze it🤔 wouldn't that make transport easier? *just thinking out loud*
Volume is too low
Turn it up. Usually the button is located on the side of your phone. If you're running Windows look in the bottom right bar on your screen. Best of luck!
I’ve read that we have 20% of the worlds potash in Utah and New Mexico. Why do you say it’s mostly Russia?
i think he said 40% combined are russia and ukraine? could still by 20% in utah
zeihan for prez
Thank you, thank you, thank you for pointing out that we were whining about gas prices that were the 50 year average. However, the real outrage is flaring gas because they haven’t built out where to put it. They haven’t built out pipelines or wherever else to put gas hasn’t been built because fracked wells only last 10-15 years. So that the damage to the environment from the co2 and methane released is a free externality whereas the build outs needed to prevent that costs big money right away and you’ll likely never make it up. Thereby reducing your profit. Money and greed against all else. All of us.
I don't know what's up with youtube suggesting me geopolitical videos that shake my perception of reality and the globe but I kind of wish it'd stop, because every time it does it sends me into a week- or two week-long disassociation spiral.
That being said this guy presents very well.
And he's talking so easily about the loss of Germany. All the US government would need to do is stopping to finance the green movement and Germany could immediately start drilling for its own natural gas in substancial numbers.
Germany would have no reason to hastily move its industry out of the country. But that's what you want.
Germany has a stable agriculture but the powers that be want to have valuable regions declared strict eco regions over night.
Basically Peter is full of shit and proud of it.
I get the impression that the content of this presentation was far above the paygrade of its audience.
12:00 Very persuasive but I have one problem. For $100 billion I want Rand Paul and Tulsi Gabbard removed from Zelensky's enemies list immediately!
thanks
Stellar.
1:05:55 He say the disinflationary trends and turning inflationary and the inflationary trends are back.
I don't understand why Russia and China going offline is inflationary?
Drive prices up: less cheap raw materials, loss of plentiful cheap labor, more constrained and complex supply chains, etc. 'Price inflation', not really monetary inflation.
@@thomashardison1140 I wonder if the FED will raise interest rates and then just keep them high since we're entering a new paradigm.
I know they've started buying corporate bonds bc so many mega corps are overleveraged.
@@hexadecimal5236 iirc Less leveraged than '08 on the whole, if that is encouraging.
I think the Fed wants to keep rates up as long as they can for some dry powder, but it likely won't last so long. Treasuries and USD futures suggest the market doesn't think it will last either.
IMO, the Fed doesn't matter much in the long run per se; the funds rate is psychological/symbolic. They aren't a central bank. Perhaps the more concerning part, if they can't truly add liquidity when the dollar is tight, who can?
@@thomashardison1140 The FED is making the dollar tight by decreasing liquidity. Raising interest rates isn't adding liquidity, the high they raise interest rates the less liquidity there is in the market.
And the FED can add as much liquidity as they want, and infinite amount if need be. Every central bank can.
@@hexadecimal5236 To some degree, perhaps. The Fed Funds interest rate is a particular thing with a particular role, which isn't so relevant in present day. It doesn't just magically change every other interest rate. For example, mortgage rates in the US are pegged to Treasury rates. Interest rates, especially further out, 7 years being a good example, are set much more by the market than the Fed.
I was actually referring more to QE/Bank Reserves and the Fed balance sheet.
When feces hit fan blades, whenever that may be, the Fed will undoubtedly want to lower interest rates and increase liquidity with some sort of QE measure, etc. This has had little to no effect until this point, in the US or Japan (which has gone intentionally crazy with QE type measures). The Fed also has little influence on international dollar markets, which are very important.
My only serious critique of this talk (which he recyles frequently) is that he says the Boomers will take all the capital with them in T-bills. I think he should be a little more thourough about the productivity gains with the Millenials and Zoomers. If we can be x3 or x5 more productive we bring more capital than the Boomers did per capita.
For an analyst who projects potential power of countries based on population and working age group projections, isn't it quite odd that India, currently and for next 100 years potentially the largest population in the world finds such low mention in Peter's talks? Neither does Nigeria, projected to get to 2nd spot ahead of China by 2075. Or Indonesia. He still is obsessed with Europe and China when both have gone past their prime in terms of global power
Perfect. These people still think the world is only EU and USA, everything else is just the rest.
His talks are geared towards the specific audience he's addressing. Peter has many comments on India in his other lectures as well as his books.
44:00 Scale is off by 5 years. Born in 1953 one is only 69 turning 70 this year (2023).
"Yes you have neighbours; you've probably lost track of the details of their lives"
Lmao
Tough crowd.
After watching so many of these you know where all the jokes are and the median laugh response he gets. Shitting on the millennials hardly got a response (he loves those jokes. Maybe bring back the avocado toast bit into the rotation?). I personally chalk up the rough set up to a sequencing issue. The Bizmark bit always kills and is a great opener to get the crowed going. Good call going a bit off script to try to pull the crowed in. What a professional.
6/10 - Set
See you lads next set. I am sure we will get a bounce back performance.
Farmers, am I right? :D
It's like Zeihan's warning for something that been planned for a long time.
not so much planned, as being an emergent property of the system writ large. for someone like peter, the writing has been on the wall for decades, but of course nearly all professionals cannot see said writing, because their heads are buried in their own profession, without a broader view. Peter exploits that knowledge gap to maintain his career.
Why does Peter exagerate so much when he doesnt have to?
- 1000 to 1 casualties
- Received 3 times more equipment than they started with
- will be exteme catastrophic famine by the end of the year
And he's talking so easily about the loss of Germany. All the US government would need to do is stopping to finance the green movement and Germany could immediately start drilling for its own natural gas in substancial numbers.
Germany would have no reason to hastily move its industry out of the country. But that's what you want.
Germany has a stable agriculture but the powers that be want to have valuable regions declared strict eco regions over night.
Basically Peter is full of shit and proud of it.
Why is this guy showing a chart for Nigeria 2025? I thought he was speaking to texans?
4:14 In fact, Russia has a national road network 😅
YES THEY DO. I lived there for almost 7 years. But he's right about the roads across the breadth of Russia....not the best, not kept up well, and really? not enough.
My pessimistic thought is that they won't stop pumping, if it will damage their oilwells, they will just pump it into the sea, where the currents carry it out to the Atlantic and the Med.
There's bacteria eating oil, that is proven since.
The real issue is weaponized hunger.
the russians? i don't think they have adjacent access to the ocean from the pipes, they would need to build infrastructure to do that. a very expensive "F U" so i doubt it
Is it correct that the rail bridge into Crimea is non-functional now? I thought that the bridge was not completely destroyed.
Rail part disfunct. Street part partial functional, but needs blocking conventional traffic for convoys according to him.
Mother, a new welcome.
Will the US grow switch grass on the marginal farmland for fuel production?
Not if the corn cabal has anything to say about it. The subsidies would have to be switched. BTW...it's a great idea. Especially if the switch grass uses fewer inputs and can satisfy the requirements for land conservation.
That fuel production is not going to make up for the loss in global supply. For fuel to be cost effective it has to be within a certain distance of the population centres that use it. That is the problem that Germany and China both face.
He is not entirely right but he is not entirely wrong either.. He is definitely exaggerating some small things and undermining some others..
Like unnecessarily comparing it to holocaust
And he's talking so easily about the loss of Germany. All the US government would need to do is stopping to finance the green movement and Germany could immediately start drilling for its own natural gas in substancial numbers.
Germany would have no reason to hastily move its industry out of the country. But that's what you want.
Germany has a stable agriculture but the powers that be want to have valuable regions declared strict eco regions over night.
Basically Peter is full of shit and proud of it.
2024 July - Russian Wheat is flooding the export market, wheat prices are depressed. Russians seem to have no problem - in fact there seems to be a lack of demand, the Russians are producing too much wheat for the export market. So when is wheat supposed to get interesting?
According to the USDA Global wheat stocks are at an eight year low, but not in the EU or North Africa. Though the EU dipped into it stocks during the summer to help the global stock shortage.
Russian yields are down, but they're still doing well overall.
Peter's claim is not that Russian wheat will not be grown, but that they will have trouble transporting it by boat. Thankfully the Black Sea is still open for export, otherwise the situation would be much worse.
Peter's argument is if the Black Sea becomes open season, the world will suffer a famine (not Russia itself.)
Why would oil price go up?
If demand is falling world wide?
Everyone is going broke ?
Doesn’t make sense .
I do wonder about this myself. Perhaps because he envisions more trade disruption (blockades or something) or he has mentioned the US blocking export, which hasn't happened. "All else bring equal" as he says, but with so many changes...
11:50 its because Ukrainians destroyed fuel trucks, not because ruzzians forgot.
It wasn't meant literally my friend, oversimplified to make a point.
I've been listening to Peter for a while now, and while I like his analysis, look at his track record it's not very promising. He said back in 2005 China would collapse within 3-5 years. I think he says what we Americans want to hear. Not saying he's wrong on everything, hell he could be right about most of it. I'm no expert on any of these subjects, but damn looking into his past predictions he's rarely right. Company's must see some purpose in his analysis.
He predicted the invasion of Ukraine 8 years ago, and the demographic collapse of Russia, China and Germany. I'm sceptical about him too, but that is not a bad thing. He loves being polemic and different, I can relate to that.
We should listen to him anyways, precisely because we are sceptical.
*about the Chinese thing, I'd love to see the source of what you say. I've never heard him talking about china in that way before 2018.
@@cnmg7121 Yea my man I'm definitely not trying to shit on him at all. He's got a lot of knowledge and has been right before. I just try not to fall into the trap of hearing one side of geopolitics and economic speculation. I think he's got the best insight on Ukraine and Russia, but everytime you count China out, they somehow seem to get themself out of hole, albeit temporarily at least.
@@thegaulbegaul
His earlier statements about Chinese collapse was about certain events occurring and the state of the world. It was not a prediction.
China would have collapsed in that period if the WTO had of applied its rules but that never happened.
Everybody knows that China is facing a demographic collapse. What do you think the outcome of that will be?
@@bighands69 Honestly I don't know. I do believe the big dragon will collapse at some point. That's the only thing I disagree with peter on, not that my opinion carries any weight, but as you said the outcome changed because some other factor changed the outcome for China. I just don't think any one person can accurately predict a countries collapse. There's just too many moving parts and things we can't forsee but I do like how bold Peter is in his predictions and do believe he's right on all the threats facing them today.
@@thegaulbegaul
The WTO decided not to collapse China but there is not going to be anybody that can help out China with its population. The outcome of the one child policy has been known for quite some time.
A lot of hot air...
The "russian strategy" that Peter describes, is similar to that used in the American Football game. Theoretically, it works provided that resources are unlimited. Putin knows this weakness: he is ensuring to have plenty of cannon fodder for as long the war rages (because the West, has not enough balls to say, ENOUGH IS ENOUGH). As for material, putin is transforming the country into a war economy, and he is succeeding, thanks again to the undecided, timid West. I should remind all western politicians and allies, that in WWII, Japan was transformed into a formidable War Machine, where all citizens participated in the war effort, children, women and men worked at factories with devotion at making weapons and equipment of the best quality, and we know what it took to stop Japan. The West must not wait to use that force to stop russia. Every european, american and asian country must reinforce their efforts to CUT ALL LINES OF LIFE AND TRADE WITH RUSSIA. The goal is to kill the russian economy, without shading more blood. The west must force, evenf by threat, all NON ALIGNED countries, such as India, South Africa, Mexico, Brasil, and many others who still are trading with russia, to stop doing all business with Putin's russia. It is all or nothing. Later, will be too late.
Speaking to farmers about Geo issues is like talking to a brickwall.
The farmers that live and die by long term sales forecasts based on global markets?
You must be talking about wow gold farmers.
There is no democracy only capitalism
Thank God for that!
41:00. Seriously man. I cannot bear to here the magic of turning 50 one more time. Best case for me I work myself towards an early grave. That's the new American dream btw.
A billion people starve to death.
The crowd laughs.
And he's talking so easily about the loss of Germany. All the US government would need to do is stopping to finance the green movement and Germany could immediately start drilling for its own natural gas in substancial numbers.
Germany would have no reason to hastily move its industry out of the country. But that's what you want.
Germany has a stable agriculture but the powers that be want to have valuable regions declared strict eco regions over night.
Basically Peter is full of shit and proud of it.
The talk about corn. Pft. Talk about import / export calories per capita.
That's where its at
I've been telling people that we are living at the height of our empire for years. NOW is the time to buy awesome knives made in Germany, Taiwan, or Japan the steel is cheap. You can buy a great knife for $20 when the supply chains fall away that knife will not be available for less than $40 maybe even $80 and the quality of the regular ones will be lowered to match the price point. This is just one example.
Hail Peter's strangeness! Nerd Power!
Zeihan is SOOOO SMART - so why does he say "Nucular" exchange ??
Boom gottem
oh no an ACCENT
as an old millenial i remember my parents being gen xers, so too all school mates that attended mid to high school in the mid to late nineties. (this is a plus or minus five grades). so i'm a little confused and i peed my diaper.
cut it for the same reason you did when you were younger. It's a pain.
I listen to Peter very carefully, but I hate his sideways maps that have white bodies of water instead of blue. Sorry, Peter.
Having Europe on top is commonplace in russia, and gives you a better idea of the "true shape" of russia. Its the same map, but looking at it different makes you think different.
And he's talking so easily about the loss of Germany. All the US government would need to do is stopping to finance the green movement and Germany could immediately start drilling for its own natural gas in substancial numbers.
Germany would have no reason to hastily move its industry out of the country. But that's what you want.
Germany has a stable agriculture but the powers that be want to have valuable regions declared strict eco regions over night.
Basically Peter is full of shit and proud of it.
Nice pony tail tho.
Talk about drinking cool aid. Pete is dishing it out thick.
Why, what examples or corrections do you have?
It's an interesting insight into the intelligence industrial complex.
well, what do you have to share?
Why would you show a map on its side? Lol talk about a bad visual tool.
Because that is the normal way to show russia, in russia. Rotating it gives you a better feel of what's going on, what's where.
The Russians forgot fuel and food!
Is it that private business left Russia because they don't want to be involved with a genocide or because vanguard and Blackrock own 20-40 % of every corporation?
Half the comments be like "Billions must die"
If Ukrainians had all of those tanks captured why are they asking for more tanks?
Because they're good at selling stuff
Tough crowd.
Well the Cher joke is a little obscure
Beyond them..struggling to keep up..
Whats this video , i didnt understand anything
It’s July, Ukrainian army is almost bleed to death.
Peter has his own bias towards his us centric view
and? because he's American he's suppose to not like what he sees?
@@fredrickm4436 I think he is entitled to like what he sees, but his arrogance towards other people and other cultures is far from good for him and for the Americans in general. He professes being a 'geopolitical strategist' or 'geopolitical analyst', whichever, and by overestimating American capabilities and understimating other countries capabilities he cannot make a balanced, serious, analysis. I give you the example of Brazil. Every now and then he releases a video about Brazil, my country, and the amount of truly idiotic things he says about Brazil is unbelievable. And his extremely bad pronounciation of foreign words (the way he pronounces, for instance the Dutch word Maastricht) shows that he is a typical American monoglot, incapable of speaking other languages or unwilling to speak other languages, because, afterall, the United States is so superior, so good, so powerful, so beautiful, while the rest of the world is so inferior, so bad, so weak, so ugly, etc. To begin with, I would say that if he has the vanity of calling himself a 'geopolitical strategist' or 'geopolitical analyst', it is fundamental that he learns other languages to be able to widen his very limited Iowa plains world view. Stephen Koktin a helll of a good geopolitical analyst - light years ahead of Zeihan - is fluent in Russian. Timothy Snyder, another extremely good geopolitical analyst - again, light years ahead of Zeihan - speaks 8 languages and reads extra four.
Those gentlemen can talk to the world, can understand the forces that shape complex societies.
Zeihan sticks his fingers in every country showing their weaknesses, etc., and he is so busy criticizing other countries that he forgets to take a look on what is going on in the US.
In the last video about Brazil he only had negative comments to make (which is crazy) and he ended up that video that Brazil has serious problems with corruption, drug trafficking, and gun violence. I was apalled by Zeihan's remarks because he gives the impression he is not aware that the United States faces serious problems with corruption (now, with serious charges against the very president of the US and his son Hunter), with drug trafficking, and gun violence. While he is too busy criticizing the rest of the world, he is impervious to the huge American problems.
I never saw Zeihan addressing the very critical problem the United States is facing right now, which is the fact that by the year 2100 (or so, you put in a decade more or a decade less in this number) the main language spoken in the United States will be by a large margin the Spanish. By 2100 English will be spoken by a minority of Wasps who probably will fear to stick their noses out of their homes, judging, for instance by the opinion of the current mayor of Chicago, who refuses to arrest criminals, because afterall, they are hungry, and their targets are precisely those wasps.
Zeihan seems to be impervious to the profound consequences of this demographic pattern (which, I remind you, gentleman, is irreversible). By the year 2100 this majority of Americans who will be Spanish-speakers, will vote for the House of Representatives and the Senate, candidates whose names will be Gutierrez, Rodriguez, Herhandez, Castro, you name it. And when that happens - and that will happen - sessions in the American Congress will be held in Spanish (Zeihan will be in big problem because he is unable to speak any other language...). And when that happens, the US will become another Latin American banana republic.
Zeihan should be worried with these issues rather than speaking with such lack of respect about civilizations that predate the United States by centuries.
And he's talking so easily about the loss of Germany. All the US government would need to do is stopping to finance the green movement and Germany could immediately start drilling for its own natural gas in substancial numbers.
Germany would have no reason to hastily move its industry out of the country. But that's what you want.
Germany has a stable agriculture but the powers that be want to have valuable regions declared strict eco regions over night.
Basically Peter is full of shit and proud of it.
@@chrise842 Gentleman, I do agree in totum with your view. Peter is an Iowa plains simpleton with a very parochial world view and an undisguised sheer contempt for everything non-american.
The universal idiot has 3 characteristics: (i) he does not know he is an idiot; (ii) he believes everybody else is idiot; (iii) he is unable to learn from his mistakes.
Zeihan fits in all these three characteristics, ergo...
@@fabiofaria4243 no, he knows how to read a map and how to use a pencil for his numbers.
But if he's a regular speaker for blakrok or vangard and the likes then he's not motivated to point out how to not permanently and willfully destroy middle class and infrastructure equipped Germany.
Russia backed away from Afghanistan before losing 500k troops
Russia held it for a decade before Russia collapsed. Russia only pulled out of there when the USSR as a market started to collapse.
Russia did not pull out of Afghanistan because it lost 30000 men to it. They simply do not care about that.
Russia lost the same amount without even mobilising. They don't care in this case
Afghanistan not a direct threat to Russia. Afghanistan not Russias neighbor.
@@ThinkHarderPlz At the time they bordered the Soviet Union.
Why 500k? Also, Russia left Afghanistan, not by choice really but because its economy imploded and it could no longer fund the adventurism.
Just a thought but couldn't Covid save China? Or at least improve their situation?
This is morbid but if they have a catastrophic outbreak and it kills 3M. By the demographic distribution we've seen so far? 2M over 60 and the other million distributed predominantly among 40-60.
What does Chinese demography look like if you chop 2M off the top?
@@plstewaf3
We cannot trust their numbers and I for one didn't from the beginning. However we do have a fairly good model of Covid. The lethality is a fraction of a percent so out of a billion that's still millions.
We know that 80% of fatalities have 3+ comorbidities and that over half will be senior citizens. With that we should be able to get a rough picture of it's effect on China's demographics.
I'd emphasize rough. I'm fairly certain they've been lying about mortality rates for 3 years anyway. Lockdowns, even draconian ones, don't seem very effective. So our estimate of natural immunity is probably low.
There’s 1.4 billion (or Peter would say 1.3 billion) people in China. 2 or 3 million people is less than a rounding error, that’s nothing.
@@Big_Tex
Well I'm just working off of the mortality rate. I double checked and I think I missed the age distribution is much higher so the deaths should almost all be at the top of the pyramid.
But .2% to .3% is a few million of 1.3B.
The same. You're looking at a cohort of over 100 million.
@@plstewaf3
Cremations? I'm just working on the fatality and infection rates. I suppose if the CCP starts cremation of people who are still alive? Or are you saying 0.2% die of Covid but the total mortality rate pee population of 1% so you get total cremations of 10M?
The Russians need to be building support trucks the way the Americans built liberty ships.
But they don't have national banks like that if not backed again by the globalists as usually since the October revolution.
I like Peter. But there is nothing new here. Same stories and conclusions that I have heard a dozen times. Getting stale.
34:38 34:56, so cutting China off from the food and energy supply could solve a lot of the food and energy challenges the rest of the world is facing?🤔 *just thinking out loud* 🤔
I will confirm this with other soueces. I cannot ignore hs logic.
nu-cle-ar ------- not NU-KYU-LAR.
Nope. “New Clear”
Peter Zeihan has a good grasp of agriculture, geography, and trade flows. I don't think he understands China very well, or sociopolitical trends. He would be a better at sticking to the agriculture/mercantilist angle.
I fail to understand how his take on China is wrong. He's basing it completely on data and demographics. Is the CCP going to suddenly change direction and right all of their wrongs? It doesnt seem like it. It seems like it would take a miracle for China to avoid the demographic collapse. I feel more psychologically prepared for the awful reports of genocide, mass starvation, and extereme civil unrest that China is going to go through. If anything Zeihan has been less hard on China than he could be given the way China seems to be operating
I wish I could see your reply
Care to elaborate? Give counter-arguments?
Looking at Russia in this way is wrong. It has nothing to do with them protecting gaps. They have nukes.
True. So - why are we poking “the Bear”?
@@Orson2u the bear is committing suicide. We are not poking it.
@@Orson2u We are not. The Bear poked Ukraine. We are only supplying resistance to that poke as has been the case since the beginning of the Cold War between the two powers.
They can't actually use the nukes (and they know it.)
@Linas Vepstas unless someone invades Russia proper. Run tanks towards Moscow and they will nuke your army. That's why the gap thing is just a pretense to invade Ukraine to endure Russia has enough white russians to continue.
Good presentation. And I can take a good-natured ribbing about how Texans deal with cold. But North Texas DOES get very very cold at times, and I personally found it offensive that you would make light of our crisis a couple of years ago. First, it got a lot colder than 25 degrees. Second, there was a simultaneous power outage for a few days. It wasn't funny in the least. People died.
We don't mock people in other parts of the country when they have floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, and heat waves.
My pal lived in Midland TX at the time of that freeze, and the situation was VERY serious. Thanks for acknowledging it.
I’m a dammed Yankee by heritage and have lived in FloMo, Denton Cnty, TX since 2000, and IMHO, you are being way too sensitive, as most Texans I’ve observed trying to navigate frozen weather conditions, I amusingly recall that even yrs ago, just before the Super Bowl that was held in Jerry World ATT stadium, we recd a snow sleet ice dump and the ability of native Texans, emboldened by the girth of their jacked up 4x4 pickups, forgot that just b/c y’all can get traction moving, if doesn’t mean y’all can stop as well… just sayin
@@Padoinky Yeah, hilarious. Like people dying on the east coast of heat stroke in 95 degree weather. I’m sure that’s pure comedy to you. As far as I’m concerned, you can take your sense of humor right back where you came from. I’ll help you pack.
And he's talking so easily about the loss of Germany. All the US government would need to do is stopping to finance the green movement and Germany could immediately start drilling for its own natural gas in substancial numbers.
Germany would have no reason to hastily move its industry out of the country. But that's what you want.
Germany has a stable agriculture but the powers that be want to have valuable regions declared strict eco regions over night.
Basically Peter is full of shit and proud of it.
An industrialized ally and host of many military bases willfully deindustrialized by minority politicians in power, bribed by his alphabet agency friends.
Peter know little about Ukraine and russia.
The USDA have reported an 8 year low in global stocks.
We all know what part of the horse the tail is on.
You see that little country in southern Africa called
ZIMBABWE. it used to be called Rhodesia, it was the bread basket of Africa. Guess what, it was destroyed to ensure Africa remained dépendent on USA for grain and maïze
And he's talking so easily about the loss of Germany. All the US government would need to do is stopping to finance the green movement and Germany could immediately start drilling for its own natural gas in substancial numbers.
Germany would have no reason to hastily move its industry out of the country. But that's what you want.
Germany has a stable agriculture but the powers that be want to have valuable regions declared strict eco regions over night.
Basically Peter is full of shit and proud of it.