🔴 What Moves the Price of Gold & China's Role In It (w/ Luke Gromen & Brent Johnson)
Вставка
- Опубліковано 20 сер 2024
- Luke Gromen, founder and president of Forest for the Trees, and Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, are well known for challenging each other’s views on Twitter. In this episode of Skin in the Game, they carry on their conversation from The Exchange and delve into the dynamics of the gold market today. They discuss the evolving role of China, debate whether a new version of the Bretton Woods agreement is being built, and inevitably discuss the fortunes of the dollar and renminbi. Filmed on January 28, 2019 in New York.
Subscribe now for more videos like this one: rvtv.io/2OW3mqu
Watch more Real Vision™ videos: po.st/RealVisio...
Watch more by starting your 14-day free trial here: rvtv.io/2xdIDmo
About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™.
Connect with Real Vision™ Online:
Twitter: rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ
Instagram: rvtv.io/2J7Ddlw
Facebook: rvtv.io/2NNOlmu
Linkedin: rvtv.io/2xbskqx
What Moves the Price of Gold & China's Role In It (w/ Luke Gromen & Brent Johnson)
/ realvisiontelevision
For the transcript visit: rvtv.io/2xdIDmo
Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so that there is absolutely no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors , agents, suppliers and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances is not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that - now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.
Get more amazing videos like this on Real Vision Premium for only $1 for 3 Months here: rvtv.io/YTDollarPin
No more waiting for the content to make it here weeks or even months after it was shot and no missing out on insights and information that move markets. Better yet.... No advertisements! Join today!
*Jesus... this guy opens his gold fund at the height of the gold rush and shuts down the fund almost at the exact bottom. then he calls for gold to go lower right before it makes a parabolic multi month move to the upside. he literally could not have been more wrong if he had tried. brutal..*
Parabolic? Kind of like 2006-07?
He would have to be kicking himself, this was filmed in January, and prices have gone up solid after he said its going down. Wowsers
Most successful people don't need to share their opinions on random youtube channels.
@@richierichBTC like you just did. Brilliant.
@@jaycopper :-)
So Brent, you went long gold as it was going down. Cleared out your position at the low ... and then went bearish on gold when it started making month over month gains?
it's called the "milkshake theory". today he goes twitter to tell others to sell because he missed this big.
You own Peter a Canadian maple leaf 1oz coin. Pay it up!
He already paid
@@jdavis9837 i bet that hurt
@dan dun It probably was a bit humbling. Schaffer’s is trashed constantly and then you end up losing a bet to that guy. Just goes to show probabilities are just that
what was the bet again? That gold will go up to $1500?
@@tylerk7577 feds monetary policy
Luke Gromen is very intelligent when it comes to whats actually happening in the world and he has the rare ability to use pure deductive logic to formulate his ideas and he can communicate them very clearly as well. I recommend everybody watch his other interview with RVF as well. The guy is one of the best out there.
Those coffee cups are very precariously perched. One wrong move and that highly leveraged carpet will be stained brown.
WisdomIsPrecious well not as Brown as some stains on some leveraged pants we are going to see real soon ... haha
Lol
Perched just like his gold position.
China's economy was controlled in the past by England through gold.
China used Silver as their currency and England forced them to use gold
which they didn't have. Today, China probably has as much gold or more
than USA. Bankster treat gold as a commodity today because for them
their fiat currency allows them to control the World economy.
People go the college and have no idea what's going on in the economy.
The banksters make the mafia look like 'pick pocketers' compared to
them. Bankster think in terms of decades, the people think in term
of weeks. The whole trade agreement with China is an example.
It's on, market goes up. It's off, market goes down. How many times
in the last year has this happened?
Brent shut down his gold fund just before the precious metal bull run..ouch
Typical--it why markets turn. Marginal seller sells out.
Did he actually shut it down? He's still on twitter as SantiagoAuFund.
This didn't age well. Real vision didn't do much for Brent replaying this one. Ouch
The factor you may not count is that Chinese using gold to back a Gold-base RMB, which reduce its dependency on U.S. $ in oil transactions settlement.
This has a number of motivations. And so for North Korea, Iran etc.
He doesn't OWN GOLD...unless it's in his VAULT...this guy owns a piece of paper with a PROMISE of gold...nothing more nothing less
Yeah. When he needs it, he'll be like "But, but...my paper gold! Where? What? How? When? Why? Who?"
Bring in those gold certificates so we can give you this paper called the dollar, as for the physical gold...YOU CAN'T HAVE IT BACK!
You mentioned Gaddafi. He provided a system that gave Libyans free health care and free education.
Would you have wanted to live there?
Luke Groman never fails to blow my mind
"Everyone should own some gold." What amount is some gold?
However much you think you'll need for the end of the world. Although if that happens, it's probably better that you own a farm.
Nobody alive today will live long enough for this to become relevant. So the answer is zero.
People are fooling themselves if they think the elites of the world will allow China to become the world leader in currency and that currency will be gold. That’s a laughable thought.
Probably roughly 400K worth.
@@dividendincome9685 I'm not so sure about that actually. I only say this because I've noticed a few big money investors and hedge fund guys have been singing praises about China, and calling it the "future", the "place to be", or the next "empire", like Ray Dalio, and Jim Rogers, etc. (Would you classify them as "elites"? Or, what do they know, that we don't?) Also, they both advocate for Gold.
Luke Gromen, you are highly accurate.
I am a RealVision subscriber: I just confirmed, This interview is from *Feb 11, 2019* so fairly dated!
Thanks for that - I get frustrated by these re-posted clips that chew up 20 minutes before I figure out they are outdated! 😤
It's in the notes of the video. 😁
If the dollar falls, it falls against other currencies, the euro goes up, the yen, the yuan, the canadian and australian dollar, the peso, we don't go out to dinner, if you have dollars you have less money, if you have debt in dollars it becomes easier to pay, if everyone shorts the dollar, then that's about it for the dollar and the US goes in a crisis for 5-10 years, the same way Zimbabwe and Venezuela have. But the US has the know how, so it would probably be a 2 or 3 year crisis, like that of 95 in Mexico.
Not really. If you are an American, and you owe $20,000 to the bank, and the dollar falls- you will still owe $20,000 to the bank. And it won't become easier to pay your debts, because the price of everything else will go up also, so you will have less expendable income.
Fascinating informative discussion! This was great!! 👍
Wow he was wrong about the rate cut(s) AND he sold gold in January saying “itll go lower, ill buy cheaper”....
Gold is real money. The rest is credit.
Gold and silver dude, get the facts right!
@@markhoward5561 That is right
Nothing is real money until you give it value. Gold is just another metal.
@@nerychristian You are wrong . It is one of few things along with silver that has kept value for thousands of years. Its supplies are limited it cant be printed by governments and you can also use it in jewellery etc.
Gold is merely a very high quality metal. It is overpriced right now relative to other commodities and goods. Imagine that your beautiful 3 bedroom house is worth a million - would you take 700 gold eagles in exchange for your house? How about sixty gold eagles in exchange for your brand new Audi or tesla? If we actually do have an economic collapse so bad government or the dollar collapses, gold will be so far down the list of what people will need and want, it won't even be thought of.
I really like these guys. They just seem open and honest.
Brent is really no match for Luke's brain!
He couldn't run his gold fund, so I don't think I'll be following his opinion on gold.
I agree totally. He understands a big zero. I would not want him to be my financial advisor
Seems like gold should be a longterm insurance hold in a portfolio. I'm not sure why he had such a short time frame for his gold trade, after all these thingscan take decades to play out.
Exactly. But half or more of the population doesn’t think ten twenty thirty years down the road. I’ll go long on pm and I’ll only sell a small percentage to recover some premium if prices get ridiculous.
Brent says "we both agree where we'll be in five years" but then he does not articulate anything about where he thinks we'll be. Weird. Where does he think we'll be?
I guess gold higher.
@@MrAmbrosse Oh, brilliant. But if that's what they think, they'll be wrong.
Gold WILL be shaken out of weak hands, time and time again. True wealth never holds a weak hand.
I have no idea what Luke is talking about. Everyone is short the dollar? He says this but doesn't explain what makes this so. Seems to me everyone is long the dollar. Most owned currency in the world, by far.
I think he means that, if people realized that the USA economy was going to collapse, they would begin to short the dollar.
@@nerychristian That's not even close to what he said. He said everyone is short the dollar right now.
@@LisaMurphy no, he meant people own assets, equities, or other currency, therfore they are short the dollar.
1 This interview is from January.
2. He was talking about other countries. It's part of his milkshake theory. In 2010 til now, other countries have been betting that we would have to devalue the dollar. They did this by taking out loans in US dollars. So, if the dollars goes down 10% they just had a gross profit with exchange rates.
3. Get over yourself
@@mooredann69 Learn to read. I was talking about Luke not Brent and this is not about "me" it's about these supposed money "mavens" who come onto Twitter and UA-cam and present questionable narratives. And I'm talking more about Luke, not Brent. I guess I should also mention that your contention that 'other' countries were betting US would devalue the dollar is nonsense.
"No amount of evidence will ever persuade and idiot."- Mark Twain
"sovereign debt always defaults?"..The UK after the Napoleonic wars had a debt to GDP ratio of 250% and they did not default..so each country must acquire an empire the size of Africa.
I think where Brent Johnson got it wrong on the dollar is assuming that the US stock market will remain strong. It has'nt fallen yet, but for all the noise, it has pretty much been moving sideways since early 2018. So "the milkshake" is not flowing towards the US as much as he thought it would, and the dollar is not as strong as he thought it would be, not enough to hamper gold, at any rate.
Now imagine how all this will be exacerbated if the US stock market crashes...
For those praising Schiff, if you bought his international "value" fund in 2010, you'd be down today almost 25% - expense ratio 1.75%
If you bought his International dividend fund in 2014, you'd be down 24% today - expense ratio 1.5%
If you bought his EM small cap fund, you'd be up a meager 2.9% - expense ratio 1.75%
If you bough his International bond fund in 2010, you'd be down 1.63% - expense ratio 1.15%
If you bought his gold fund in 2013, you'd be up 3.3% - expense ratio 1.5%
So you've paid Peter to under f@$!%!$! Perform and then pretend he how to manage money.
Pontificating is the easy part.
Fiat savings in the Bank= Zero/Negative interest. Fiat currency losing value/rising cost of living.
Gold in the only safe place for savers.
Gold is the only money period!!!!
Where were you when Gold was 350 an ounce. So now you want to recommend gold.
Dishonesty to become rich at expense of others, this is what I say.
This is brilliant. Played it 3X.
"Useless for 99% of the economic cycle." Gold is literally money. Its been money for basically all of human history, at least 5,000 years probably much longer, except for when the world went off the gold standard in mid 1900's. Notice alot of really smart finance peoples' time perspective doesnt go past the time they were born.
Gold is not literally money. It is a metal, just like any other metal. The only reason people give it value, is because they have been told that it has value. If we would have grown up in a world where people valued aluminum, then that would be the standard.
@@nerychristian You can have an individual opinion that gold is not money which I respect. However, gold has been humanity's money for many thousands of years which cant debated. And now it is going to be considered money once again as all the countries out east announce they have created gold-backed cryptocurrencies. (Iran already has, others coming soon)
Gold and Silver are God’s currency!
Gold is the original Currency.......cannot be printed unlimited like paper-money!
really? let me get my atom 3d printer. oh sorry wrong year. lets talk about it in 20 years lol
Chinese are smart. They were buying real estate from 2012-2018. Now they’re buying gold from 2018-202???
You think they started buying gold in 2018? 🙄
They started along time ago my friend. Don't believe the news.
Many countries besides China have bought gold. Having gold allows
a country to by pass the US petro dollar hegemony that allows USA
to 'box' them in. Both Iran & Venezuela have been able to buy what
they need by having a gold supply.
Watch gold, right now they are trying again to suppress the price.
It seems to me the center of this is in Great Britain.
There are big short positions in gold currently. If the trend towards
minus interest rates continue, gold will go up~
Gosh love it!! .... This is what i wanna see .... Debate ... Subtle Spiciness to the Convo .... "YOU can ask Saddam about that!!" ... "YOU can ask Gaddafi about that!!" ... Oh WAIT!! Hahaha
When the aliens come and request 47 ounce gold for a human life, only the once who physically own 47 ounce of gold will be able to trade their life.
The first thing I think that will happen will be a currency reset just like occurred in May 1933 with gold. We will go back to a gold standard. Gold will be reset to perhaps $10,000 an ounce or more and that money will be used to pay back the sovereign debt.
HOPEFULLY! Without a VISION the PEOPLE PERISH!!
why is this interview so "OLD"..?
Who is the interviewer and interviewee? Thought the interviewee is supposed to do most of the talking.
They're friends it seems - so it's a less traditional interview , more of a rap.
Luke is way more on the ball than Brent. Brent has turned into a contrarian indicator...
Great conversation. I learned a lot.
China’s domestic private debts? Depends on what did they do to the debts. If it is to buy hard assets, then changing of hands of assets is not a big problem.
Gold is a store of value, currency is not... simple
END THE FED
yo brent, instead of the $milkshake what abt the gold milkshake
Great standup! Couldn't stop laughing for the entire show!
For the price of a couple of ASEs, you could buy a few shares of a low price miner,trading at 1 to $3 a share. Trade these for some profits,DO NOT TRADE YOUR GOLD. EXK, which trades about $2.50, was up 7.5% one day this week, up about 15 cents in a day.
if gold goes lower you are going to loose way more in other assets , maybe its not the lower price in gold but the LOWER PURCHASING POWER, as i dont see this dropping
This is a dialogue not an interview !
Re do the interview or edit out the host.
Intestering re Gold and Dollar
You guys have been releasing fire lately. subbed.
Wrong, it’s Reagan & then Gingrich that brought us credibility. 20:10
Better set and wardrobe on left as a cowboy in an1850's Wyoming saloon. And on the right side as a bearded hermit in a cave up a mountain wearing a ragged old suit.
Gold is like fire insurance. It's holding cost is an insurance premium. On the day your house gets burned to the ground, it becomes invaluable. Of course that day never arrives for most people. Best then not to think of gold as an asset.
gold is better than insurance premium. If i don't use my house or car insurance, i don't get them any back. With gold, if you don't use it, it is still there
@@mtube620 Except you still have to pay for auto and home insurance. So you are spending twice the money.
Hah, and this dude sold his insurance just before the house started burning down. Unlucky!
Gold is money. Everything else (fiat currency, bonds,etc) is backed by debt. Gold in hand has no counter party risk.. unlike everything else. Except maybe bitcoin. If u dont know this and/or dont worry about counter party risk then have fun these next few years. You re gonna love seeing what may come to pass.
Why is gold money? Aluminum could just as easily be used as a currency.
"We could ask Saddam about that."
Neither is creditable at all....wonder who is paying for their so called opinion.
Tammy the guy on the left needs to be punched in the face. He gives me the creeps
The companies they work for.
China has been spray paint bricks GOLD and trying to kite them as real.. lol
Lets be honest without trump's we'd be in a recession at this moment.
And with trump we'll be in a depression in 18 months ... that's when his brown shirts will form vast militias and you can kiss your democracy goodbye.
Gold is not particular in economic system, then keep dollar friend... Good Luck on Recession.
Psst ... Bitcoin. (No, really ;)
If you want to lose 20% in a month sure.
@@TheDrouyn Everyone begins a skeptic. And actually folks like you are why Bitcoin is still an outstanding investment-so thank you. ;)
@@DL-hu9yw Lol. Keep pumping. You need suckers to hold while the whales dump.
@@TheDrouyn You might want to do yourself a favor and look into the ... actual technology. Have you ever actually done that? Everyone begins a skeptic. Those who are able to get over their arrogance+ignorance have the chance to be a part of revolution that will not be stopped for the simple reason that it cannot be stopped. I'm guessing you don't understand this, though. Maybe just wait for a MSNBC infographic to explain it to you a few years from now?
Big ups D!
Chinese do NOT have enough gold reserves!!!!!!
How do you know? ( I know nothing about it.)
@@leroyjones6170 china has 11 trillion $ in debt. 11 minus 2 trillion of reserve= $9 trillion. Divide that to 20,000 tonne gold which i think china has, math came to $14,000/oz
No CB does
Chinese provinces do have a lot of debts - outside of the CCP. Yes...
USA has the biggest gold reserve
Isn't the rest of the world already in a recession? Listen to time stamp 22:49 min discussion.
The Chinese are raising gold for the day they dump treasuries and the dollar peg?
Lari Basilio - Not Alone feat. Vinnie
Where's Bass? Doesn't he have something negative to regurgitate from his CIA handler? Like: "China stole all of USA'S gold".
Nah, they just steal our technology and ideas.
80's Nostalgia Guy , you're confused. Israel is the thief. Check Brendon O'Connell's channel.
Change your paper money to gold
Luke, you need to work on your Posture!!!!! :)
The other fella has a huge egg (shaped )head .
Both would look gross without suits on. Both have health problems. Both are bad people. Most finance people are bad people. Puppets for their masters. Slaves with suits
This video captures perfectly the waste of talent discussing the slinging of paper whereby no wealth is created.
That's way Bitcoin come to play the game
Brent Johnson proves himself here that he thinks he way too smarter than he actually is.
The problem was he Couldn’t justify his clients owning gold because of cost associated with storing it when in fact they( his clients) should’ve just been personally holding their own gold as an insurance policy which would’ve cost nothing and now they would richer and getting more wealthy by the day or really just not be losing. Or better yet how about silver. Lol
Cost of storage is higher than zero. You have several million dollars in gold, and tell me it costs nothing to store. Insurance, vault/vault service, and guns. Come on think about it.
Insurance isn’t free and when the dollar loses its remaining purchasing power, in retrospect the cost of storing and insurance would look like a real bargain.... I suppose if you think the current paradigm will last forever or at least your lifetime it makes sense to sell gold. But seriously....is that what you think ? At best you don’t know exactly what’s going to happen..... at the worst we just bet the farm on the wrong horse
Guy won't let Gromen get a word in. stopped early
Run on gold and silver
Please get ultra wealthy Chinese citizens such as Miles to talk about China Gold topic. They will have the real scoop on the goal of ccp. You guys are only talking about ideas not based on true facts.
we live on a finite planet which is being trashed let me see we are going to grow our way out of trouble der!
paper money printed without Any back up from precious metal like gold or the like is worthless .
Ain't looking so hot for luke. Man thought you said China has upper hand
Lol, China is in deep trouble. Their only hope now is Trump isn't re elected.
WHEATON, WPM gets $27 million cash flow per employee!
old new travels fastest
Brent was so wrong with his dollar milkshake theory. Caveat emptor
Not sure just of yet. Both can be true. The dollar and gold can go up at the same time. It's hard to see both if you have no data points of this happening.
He is correct in the short term for dollar milkshake theory, as people hoard dollars in short term repos for invoicing in trade as there is a dollar shortage. But there will be a massive hyperinflation of money when the economy of U. S breaks.
This has to go back to the lessons of what is Money that has an impact on a society discussed in many episodes by, the genius, Mike Maloney.
The Sobs are working both ends.
Bitcoin fixes this!
Yeah you lose all your money.
This is obviously very old, not relevant now given what has happened in the last few months.
It's still relevant, unless your thick and just want someone to tell you when to buy and sell.
@@MrAmbrosse He called it wrong, there for his thesis was incorrect and largely irrelevant.
Oooooh this should be in their Cringe playlist... I feel bad for this guy, whooooops.........
who is shorting gold? and, why? listening to any conversation that ignores this elephant in the room is a waste of time.
How about that JP Morgan trader who was recently prosecuted in London for manipulating the gold market From 2007 to 2016. Others at JPMorgan caught as well. How many have damages to collect if you can quantify the losses to investors