The “Dollar Milkshake” Theory with Brent Johnson
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- Опубліковано 4 жов 2024
- 🔥 Get FREE ACCESS to Real Vision rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw. Santiago Capital's CEO Brent Johnson rejoins Real Vision with a plethora of predictions that revolve around a strengthening dollar.
Johnson believes that a global currency crisis looms, but that there is a bull case to be made for the greenback, gold, and U.S. equities. Filmed on May 29, 2018, in San Francisco. Published on June 6th, 2018.
TIMESTAMPS:
00:10:23 Bucking Arguments Against Dollar Strength
00:15:15 Implications For U.S. Equities and Bonds
00:18:39 Golden Opportunities Coming?
00:25:56 How Do The Dollar And Gold Rise In Tandem?
Watch Brent Johnson's follow-up to The Dollar Milkshake Theory: rvtv.io/2tdRouM and The Great Dollar Debate with Brent Johnson and Luke Gromen: rvtv.io/2TGSnza only on Real Vision.
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TIMESTAMPS:
00:10:23 Bucking Arguments Against Dollar Strength
00:15:15 Implications For U.S. Equities and Bonds
00:18:39 Golden Opportunities Coming?
00:25:56 How Do The Dollar And Gold Rise In Tandem?
🔥 𝗚𝗘𝗧 𝟳 𝗗𝗔𝗬𝗦 of Real Vision’s insights for only $𝟭 (seriously!) rvtv.io/RVfor1dollar
Genius.
I especially love that part where he says, "Admitting you were wrong is very freeing. It lifts a lot of pressure off you. It then allows you to move on to the next thing...'Why was I wrong? Where did I go wrong?'"
He said all these 4 years ago!!! What a visionary!!!
Stay tuned for an upcoming revisit to his theory. Airing next Monday here in RV!
The clip is actually from 2018! :O It's in the description...
Looking back, Brent was spot on, the correction, the rebound, market going higher over the wedge, dollar going much stronger, etc. Well, left to be seen is Gold going up together with the dollar and then beyond. 😄
5k prediction for gold. But did he ever take digital currency into account?
Right. The transition
100%
the intro got me so pumped i sold my girlfriend for gold bullion.
jk.
i dont have a girlfriend.
Smart 😎👍
Same :D
Therefore you already own gold!!!!
Ham Sarris man, you are funny 😂😂😂
@733Rafael that's why I was just thinking in the Global Financial collapse what's more likely to take off gold or Bitcoin
The reason why money was pumped in the markets and gold prices stayed put was because the money that was pumped into the market never actually got to the common person. Traders, Bankers and wealthy corporate owners got massive returns but your average person was still making 7.50 / hour. All that would need to happen to create economic ruin and massive inflation in the states is for all the idle money that is siting offshore to get disbursed among the common persons (say through a foreign government purchasing smaller businesses and real estate, or even giving money directly to american residents) scarcity is what generates value. its kind of like De Beers in diamonds, diamonds are a lot more common than their value suggests but because so much of the stock is warehoused and its availability to everybody is controlled, the value is much higher.
@Blake Red light, green light.
Came across this interview today. Impressed how Brent predicted the dollar effect and now with Covid and the Ukraine crisis it makes more sense
"Fed isn't going to drop interest rates and do QE." Whoops...
@tom ta near timeframe, markets stabilize as summer heats up and kung flu dies off, probably get a jump in the markets when the "authorities" announce the "pandemic" is over in a couple weeks.
medium term, not sure, almost anything could happen, I wouldn't be surprised if old Brenty boy was right for a period in here... the dollar, spot gold, markets, and bitcoin will probably go up in unison after getting beaten down so much in unison. Of course Brent didn't think they'd take a 40% tumble together first and I expect they will slowly separate as they recover. Spot gold/silver will probably be allowed to rise to real gold/silver's price when they think the coast is clear to stop wasting resources on suppressing it.
long term, the effects of 6 trillion dollars worth of inflation (maybe even more by the time they're done with this round) will steadily send the smart money into bets against the USD, I expect the steady rise in anti-USD assets, including gold/silver stocks that has been happening the last few years to continue. The timeframe on the dollar's inevitable hyperinflation just shortened considerably. Still hard to say when, i'm 90% confident it's not going to happen immediately, I think we're going back into stagflation for now, they're going full Japan and buying up huge amounts of the asset markets. Eventually americans will behave like the japanese, they'll leave these fake markets and let the Fed play with itself, probably quite a few will stay out this time around. Not sure what happens after that until the USD loses reserve status, but that will happen and probably within the next Fed boom-bust bubble cycle of 8-12 years.
@@yunggolem4687 I don't think this "pandemic" is going to be over until we have a vaccine. You're thinking a couple weeks while I'm thinking a couple years. We'll all be wearing masks and distancing until then. I enjoyed the read but thought you might be a little on the optimistic side.
Trumpets . . . Welcome to C O M M U N I S M comrads
( you know when the state owns all the assets )
Can the FED keep the DEBT BUBBLE inflated?
TRUMP'S GREAT DEPRESSION of 2020 if not.
The Federal Reserve announced a barrage of new programs
to help keep the market functioning. Among the moves is an
open-ended commitment to keep buying assets under its
quantitative easing measures. There are multiple other programs,
including one for Main Street business lending and others aimed
at keeping credit flowing. The Fed will be moving for the first time
into corporate bonds, purchasing the investment-grade securities
in primary and secondary markets and through exchange-traded funds.
@Vincent T. COVID1984 haha
he was right besides QE forced by pandemic
Short term , US dollar rises . Long term , Gold rises .
Atm they are rising together, but gold still outperforms the dollar
Owning land and homes is better than owning gold. You can't live on gold.
@@nerychristian That's why you diversify. And land is taxed to death in most of the US. So is land still a sound investment ? You can live on land & not own it. Especially if you can do WITHOUT comforts. I lived a year in a tent when I was younger to save money. I didn't own the land. Bathed in a creek. Ate fish from the same.
80's Nostalgia Guy it’s called smelting, and yes you can.
80's Nostalgia Guy Land is also an inflationary hedge, but even harder to move than gold or crypto’s.
Glad to hear that Peter Schiff finally agreed with The Dollar Milkshake theory. This video has held up well so far.
I’m not the only one checking this out three years later then ? I remember Schiff disagreeing with the theory at the time, but didn’t realise he changed track. But he had to really.
@@Will46666 no he didn't. he still disagrees with Brent
Since 1913 through today the US Dollar buys about 4 cents of what it use to buy. If that is what everybody demands. You can have it. I'm putting my value elsewhere. There is no supply shortage on dollars. They can print all you want. Millions, Billions, Trillions. Hyperinflation wipes the board of all debt and the world reserve currency resets. End of story.
Well, the FED will soon print again. Will the world still want our USD? AND now, if China trashes USD, USD will fall far, to the delight of US manufacturers. I do think interest rates will go higher, forced by long term Bond Buyers. BUT when? This is all like a Black Box for 95% or most of us! The only thing 99% of people have in common is the respect for GOLD, as frustrating as it's been for new buyers.
The fed stopped raising rates....that's the fundamental of his whole theory.
even though they have stopped raising rates in America they are still higher than the rest of the world so it still holds. also if the dollar continues appreciating then, well the periphery of empire will experience the dollar funding trouble thats been causing chaos in those markets. personally i see the fed holding for a while. they maintain their perceived credibility and the blame goes elsewhere according to them.
Stopped raising rates for how long is the question.
And it was predictable too. Peter Schiff has been stating the obvious for years, that you can't normalize rates (inflation plus +2% ish on the short term) to 4-5% and have an over leveraged economy with $22 trillion in debt, with a $1T deficit. It just doesn't work. And that's without talking about unfunded liabilities like Social Security, and state pension funds. The Fed tried to raise, they just barely raised rates to equal inflation, and they had to stop.
could we of already sucked the milk shake and thats what happend for last 5 years?
QT is still happening though.
This guy is telling people to buy gold and silver stocks, in the words of Mike Moloney "If you cant hold it, you dont own it!" buy physical gold and silver instead of stocks.
yes sir..becz silver and gold are almost limited
25 min. In I didn't hear him mention silver! Your comment is ass crack juice
You bet! You got it right
@@millitaryfool lol
@@clementmakamo4557 We are on the cusp of mining operations in space (astroids). Gold could become so plentyfull that it would no longer be considered "money". My hunch is that nations are preparing for this day by gradually selling off their gold reserves by convincing the little people to buy up gold. When the game changes, the rich always make sure they are not "holding the bag".
This guy was totally out to lunch, and Peter was bang on. End of story!
this interview is a year old
I just don't get all the worshiping of Peter Schiff...
All is funds are at least 15% negative since he's started them and he still charges his clients 1.5% to loose them money.
I could sell today my stocks after the drop and I would still have outperformed Peter Schiff.
Just in fees if you invested in his funds since 2010 you'd be down some 30% from compound interest.
His funds are full of dead meat stocks, tobacco, oil, and telecoms.
In the meantime the world became digital, and technology took over.
All successful businesses in this crisis are online and digital, Peter doesn't have any position on technology.
So to resume, I just don't get why people are still so blinded by Schiff.
I could just sell today my S&P with a huge profit and buy gold if I believed it's the best thing after sliced bread.
In the meantime y'all been losing money for 10 years just to prove a point.
That's really dumb in my book
Crystal Clean- so if you decide not to sell your stocks and by gold, and peters right, then you will eat your words?
@@liammorgans7329 there's a few things people find hard to understand.
First I never said Peter isn't right about most of his predictions.
He's mostly wrong about the outcome and that's what makes him a terrible investor for his clients.
If you invested in his funds when he opened them 10 years ago...
You would have lost 20% in nominal value
You would have underperformed the S&P over 100%
You would have paid Peter over 20% in compounding management fees
So if you think Peter is here to help the little guy... I don't know what to say.
If you really believe the world is going back to the gold standard... I have to assume you don't know much about the world.
I'm not saying gold is a bad investment... I'm just saying the gold train has left in 2016 and it's cycle will end at some point. Most of the money has been done already.
Crystal Clean- he just today released a podcast explaining where he was wrong and why.
It’s pretty interesting. You may be right you may be wrong, time will tell.
But the overarching point that Peter has made is that the QE they did in 2008 opened Pandora’s box and that they wouldn’t be able to close it, which was true, they have kept doing QE ever since.
He didn’t expect them to push it this far, because the bubble it created will be more and more devastating the longer you wait.
So here we are, people ole Rag Dalio also predicted a financial crisis to happen around about now in a video from 2016.
Yes, if you played the artificially booming market for the past 10 years you will have made money, but that doesn’t mean he was wrong that it was an artificial boom. It just means he was wrong about how long it would take to pop.
Possibly, we’re about to find out anyway 🤷♂️
Thanks for the info
Thank you Brent for this. To summarize: the dollar will fail in a position of strength, rather than a one of weakness. Great perspective to consider.
What strength? It hardly buys anything except maybe is some third world country
@@gerardomartinez9992relatively to other fiat currencies
Great theory but if only you could have seen into the future today.
Interest rates at 0%, helicopter money and QE in effect.
@M T Yeah so weird
@M T Short term, yes. But where will it be in 6 months? Down.
Dollar is going up relative to other fiat currencies because they're all playing the same 0/negative interest, QE, helicopter money game
@@michalcymbalisty5597 I agree and to be honest I don't know what happens from here. I hope you guys are keeping safe wherever you are. Strange times.
@@lebby92 unprecedented times for sure. The light at the end of the tunnel for me is Bitcoin.
monetary deflation, a predetermined supply, and decentralized control is what encompasses a safe haven for me in 2020.
Gold and silver are great in theory just so much less usable IMO. Stay safe
Monetarism leads to mercantilism. We’ve played this game already in the 19th Century. Money has no intrinsic value, and nobody wants to talk about the actual economic reality.
Time for an update?
The cash flow pyramid is built on consumer credit. How much more credit can the consumer get? Not much.
Excellent and highly refined analysis by Brent Johnson.I have been following his “Dollar Milkshake” Theory since his presentations in Vancouver Resource Investment Conference and I think he is spot on.The USD will rise at least in the short term as other currencies are in much worse shape
Most expensive toilet paper ever
@Changyi He No country is currently printing more money than China thus the Red Dragon will suffer equal stagflation
@Changyi He One cant seriously believe that Chinese (and that of the other major powers of USA,Europe and Japan)inflation rate is about 2%.These are doctored figures to allow them to keep pumping more money to keep markets and economies pumped up and pay for the excess debt via inflation.I suspect actual inflation for these nations mentioned above is about 5-8% thus none of them has positive real interest rates.Also the real definition of inflation is an increase in the money supply and if you go by this definition,China is highly inflationary
@Changyi He In fact,if there is a country that's practicing relative sound monetary discipline its Russia for reasons below
Russia can back its M0 ruble money supply at 2000 USD/oz equivalent making the ruble the most gold backed currency in the world as they still acquire more gold and silver reserves
Also Moscow recorded a government debt equivalent to 13.50% percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2017 compared to USAs 105% and China's 240%
Russia also has its central bank rate at 7.75% while the USA markets were almost falling apart with a measly 2.5% Fed funds rate and China has 4.35%
Now 7 months later, to see things have played out exactly as he outlined, really cool!!! Brent Johnson spoke about his Milkshake Theory in the January Cambridge House Conference in January - using 3 movies as analogy, one of my favorite presentations. This is my 7th or 8th replay to listen to his milkshake :)
fiat currency is a bad neighborhood. the dollars just the best house on the block.
fiat current is the same as robbing the world, If there ws not fiat current than has America a devaaluation nearly (maibe) 25% a year with there livestyle
No, the swiss franc is better watch the last 20 years, but gold works even better
THE US DOLLAR IS THE FASTEST RACE HORSE IN THE GLUE FACTORY.
Right, or put another way, it's the cleanest dirty shirt.
Or the cutest of the uglies. The tallest of the midgets. The hardest of the limp dicks.
Gold didn't behaved as expected because it's just defective Bitcoin . It's orders of magnitude better than fiat paper, but still cannot compete with perfected digital money.
They need to add liquidity, if not from other countries, from somewhere that he has no idea! Was low gas fee Eth in their purview?
Feels like video was made couple of months ago
Exactly, I view my gold and my life insurance exactly the same. I don’t want either one to pay off because of what it means.........
Yeah I hope to never have to sell my gold or to load my assault rifle either.
Those who want the price of gold and silver to go parabolic need to reevaluate their priorities. They need to be careful about what they wish for, because they just might get it.
ill wait for all time highs
At the time this was a solid theory. As of today the dollar inflates out of existence.
Dallar still appreciating against all other currencies look it up
@@danielarjona440 Hyperinflation is coming. No way they can do QE forever, bail everyone out and not wreak the dollar.
Daniel Arjona this guy seems like he’s on point with his theory, what do you think?
@@OnSiteTrav the dollar will collapse. But in a deflationary way . Its reserve estatus and the Eurodollar system is demanding a lot of dollars
Personally, I have my opinions about what is coming. This was well thought out, and plausible. I need to do some more thinking. I've been a Mike Maloney and Peter Shiff guy for a long time. I won't be selling my precious metals anytime soon, but perhaps a hedge of a nice pile of cash (beyond the emergency fund) is also a good idea.
The notion that we can ignore stupidly high P/E ratios, yeah.. not buying that one.
regardless of what happens,
rule 1) no debt
rule 2) big emergency fund
rule 3) until you get rule 1 and 2, you have no business looking for more rules.
rule 4) own where you live
rule 5) Invest, try to get your money to help pull the cart.
5a) No dollar (beyond the emergency fund) gets a free ride.
5b) Invest only in what you understand.
It would take me 10 years of putting all extra income on my mortgage to pay it off. Do I buy gold/silver for the first time ever in 2029? Or let the mortgage charge me interest while I put extra income towards precious metals?
These rules are not bad. But I wouldont say own where u live as a rule. It really depends on your life style. But agree with all the other rules 100%.
@@kikobiko7088 That rule is biblical. If you own where you live, own it outright, then you have taken risk out of investing. Your roof is yours even if you lose your job, or the market crashes. This rule keeps you from losing your roof. This is your fortress of solitude. This is your position of FU. Here is a great clip from a pretty lousy movie..
ua-cam.com/video/rJjKP8vYjpQ/v-deo.html
He doesn’t seem to understand the difference between money and credit, if participants default on their obligations in a debt based monetary system, the money doesn’t disappear unless the debtors intentionally withhold the money from circulation, which is contradictory in the sense that why would you borrow money at interest to hold it, that’s not a long term stable configuration. The lenders of money/ the extenders of credit would suffer from losses due to writing down of defaulted loans and that is destabilising however although the credit they issued disappears in a write down the actual money doesn’t disappear and is still a part of the overall money supply and financial system. Also the federal reserve can monetise US debt and take it into its balance sheet directly thereby circumventing going to the international markets, not to say it will do this going forward but it is possible in principle. Since this interview was published the dollar stopped appreciating and the Federal Reserve has changed its approach to quantitative tightening, that’s not to say the dollar can’t further appreciate but that the course of events over the last seven to eight months haven’t validated the theory. The reality behind how this will unfold is much more complex as all the market participants are liable to change their decisions based on how the situation evolves.
Pilots destroy Iran's nuclear assets and refuel in Saudi Arabia. This throws all 23 Arab states into war at the time Iran provides a reprisal. Jeremiah 25: 24-26. Daniel 8: 20, 23-25. Daniel 11: 44, 45. WATCH the fireworks. Watch the fiat currencies go down the gulgler beginning with the Euro and the Australian dollar; while a financial tsunami runs all over the world. Ezekiel 7: 19. This shower of Lehman's falls onto the US.
Money gets destroyed in a debt based system. It also gets created.
Also stock inflate in value adds money and wealth. Then pop, the assets get sold at lower prices and accounts are much lower in value.
The confusion on debt based money is that some lending is based on being asset backed and others are not. So credit card debts is unsecured. Cars can be repossessed on those loans. Homes can be foreclosed on and if enough equity, then all is well for the lenders.
Overall thing to remember that when Interest is paid thru folks earning money and paying it to the Bankers, the bankers are getting the value of the workers labor. Nice trick! Pretty much all voluntary!
I agree. I don't know why he says money disappears when a loan is defaulted. As you say, that money was already spent into the system. If a loan is repaid, yes, that reduces the MS.
Brilliant analysis and great interview where Brent deals with the arguments by himself without interruption and distraction.
Jeepers creepers! Absolutely spot on. Why didn’t I find this when it was published here in 2019? PLEASE DO AN UPDATE!
I'm just dumfounded how a guy as sharp as Brent Johnson falls into the same trap as almost 'all' other analysts do. He says "the US dollar is going to strengthen and I don't mean just a little bit. I mean 'a lot'".
And the obvious question is "The US dollar is going to strengthen compared to what?" And the answer is "Compared to the other currencies... AND THAT'S IT."
The major currencies in the world are fighting with each other inside a basket called the US Dollar Index. The most common disasterous error that almost all analysts make is mistaking the US Dollar Index for "the US dollar". The US dollar is measured only by how it stacks up against the other currencies in the basket... a basket that was tossed out of an airplane from 50,000' about 60 years ago. That basket is plummetting towards the ground so fast that it is in danger of catching fire due to friction before it even hits the ground. And keep in mind that 57% of that basket is made up of the Euro alone.
So you might ask... "Well then what is the US dollar really worth?" And the correct answer is "the US dollar is worth 1/1320th of an ounce of gold... soon to be 1/5000th of an ounce. So although Mr. Johnson is almost assuredly correct about the direction of the US dollar compared to the other major currencies, he is dead wrong about the direction of the US dollar in terms of gold. He is talking about the US Dollar Index and is mistaking that as the US dollar.
The net result is that we will see the US Dollar Index rising and gold rising at the same time. If readers want to argue that "that's impossible'... then you still don't understand the difference between the US Dollar Index and the US dollar itself. You might want to read this comment over again and this time pay attention.
Well then, you make videos, subbed already.
Does this theory take into consideration CBDC and potentially new digital dollar which would replace the 'old' one? If not, how it might impact the trend?
Yeaa, with the hindsight benefit of writing this on June 22, 2019 Brent's theory proved wrong. Rates are expected to go lower and another round of QE is expected to start.
Yep, not many people were thinking the Fed would completely reverse course so quickly and that we would be looking for at an almost certain rate cut in July.
July, 2020.
Dollar is now under pressure with DXY at 94 level.
BUT,
Contrary to what people beleive now, I'm still with your milkshake.
LOL. A lot of these videos are edutainment. It's visibility for the fund management company. Reagan did THE EXACT SAME Milkshake prior to the Plaza. care to make a currency bet on Euro based on "they're over regulated"??? LOL.
Several month has passed since this video, has things changed so much that the argument of the dollar getting stronger or continues to gain value still holds water?
He is very insightful, what he said is happening at this point, end of August, 2019
The article was from May 2018. So he did not get that the stock market crashed in thru Dec 2018.
What I see is another dip and then off to the blow off top he is talking about. Nasdaq 8 to 10,000 is possible.
@@superchuck3259 Today President Trump said 9/9/19 " WE could very well have a new high in our stock market. "
Wow this guy is right
Was hard to believe FED can resist the global interest rate race to the bottom. It was wishful thinking to be able unwind QE and normalize rates. That should have been very clear from Q4 2018 crash. Now it's worse as FED goes 'unlimited''.
November of 2019 called, there is no straw. It's a race to zero.
Sorry my man, the Fed is doing QE again, and on an even crazier level. Got this quite wrong, so hard to believe anything you say.
Well, this guy just lost his bet to Peter Schiff !
Cough up that oz of gold 😉
Lol I came here to talk shit to him too.
He better move his assets or he's gonna get fucked like everyone else. At least he does respect Peter and his theory so he probably can save himself.
His fundamental reasoning is correct. Don't point out his timing mistakes. The same timing complaints can be said of Schiff IN SPADES. Anyone who believes timing predictions is a fool. When the SHTF yet AGAIN there will be MASSIVE flight to the US dollar AGAIN.
Don't point out his timing mistake? Lol rates are going to continue to plummet.
@@winstonsmith478 ohh ok
Then why does it mostly always fall at $1299.00 oz? Like the interview though.
I'm really happy to see that the real vision channel is seeing tremendous growth over the last month in subscribers. Roundabout +50%
Take it all with a grain of salt.
30 years ago, i invested in low cost housing, specializing in rooms for older men.
I retired 6 years ago, on an easy $150k a year, plus capital gains.
i am 55yo
Think outside of stocks and shares.
My rent is ALWAYS covered by welfare. and goes up 1/2% over inflation, every year.
So, you're making all those older men miserable by taking all their money every month. You should allow them to stay there for cost and forego your profits. You will sleep better at night knowing those old men have money to buy hookers & blow.
@@climatetech511 They seem to be a lot happier since i stopped being a "Gland Lord".
I like it when they dies. i get all their treasure.
@@deadwombat Wat!!! You are a wombat preying on the dead!!
@@climatetech511 No.
With stitched closed eyes, covering a 1000 yard stare, dragging a writhing bag of Karmic souls i, like the ferryman on the Styx, assist the dead on their way........ and take their last penny's, even from their eyes.
More a wombat of, and belonging to, the Dead.
@@deadwombat 🙀
This was so good I listened to it 4 times !!!. I'm soooooooo glad to be out of equities. Made BIG $$$ in the game, but the 30~90% downside risk is too great to chance just for another 5~10 % possible upside. My dad once told me... "Nobody EVER lost a dime taking a profit". It's ALL going into 60-75% PMs asap since they are very VERY cheap now. Also some cash for near fiat expenses ( think taxes)(about 5-10%) and moderate amount of silver too (10-15%) since the GSR is almost 90:1 now. I KNOW... that's nuts. Thanks again for the great interview guys... keep on stacking preppers !
I got the 25 year food, isolated farm on a private pond, protection, etc. handled learned how to hunt, shoot very well, garden and do other valuable barterable skills too. Dental and eyeglasses in good shape finally too. physical fitness too.
God bless you & all your subscribers who heed your good counsel.
Be well, Raoul & company.
Yeeeeeeehaw, you definetely show them illuminatis who's boss here.
What's to stop governments, in the event of economic catastrophe, from simply outlawing the possession of gold? Or to sell all their gold and crash the value?
You are right, they did in the past. The way around is to buy collectable coins. They can't just be stolen and melted down as they are rare/collectable. It would be a huge lawsuit situation.
Charles Granata but for even common modern coins minted for collectors, don't you pay a premium over the value of the gold? And given we're talking about a depression, who is going to pay that premium)? I don't doubt that gold will go up further but it's not much use if you can't sell it. And if you're talking rare coins, that requires specialised knowledge, and even then is probably a very risky investment - much of the value is in the rarity of the coin, it's more like the art market.
@@paulwary Agreed. That is why I don't do rare coin collecting. The point is getting protection from confiscation of gold. Gold bullion could be more easily confiscated than collectable coins. So long as the premium is small, it is worth it. But a large premium over metal value would be too risky for me too!
He didn't see gold's big gain in mid 2019. Gold went from 1150 to 1650.
the fed will save the dollar and Brent has a better economic theory than others. nice work brent
BITCOIN money will flow into it ,, gold an silver is safe
I bought gold and silver with btc when it was at 20k
@@TeoOfficial_1 should have sold them back into btc when it was at 3k..... long term goldbugs will continue to get absolutely btfo by bitcoin. Why goldbugs don't put 1% of their holdings into crypto I will never know. Instead of being upset on the internet you could be happy everytime bitcoin does a parabolic run.
I think most people are unaware that the cash position in the 401ks and IRAs were changed quite a few years back to government bonds. Think about when the market corrects 20% quite a few people dump equities and get automatically funneled into government bonds.
This guy's timing on his calls are so wrong... US dollar has fallen and gold has risen
He is expecting a Blow off top, and that should happen.
Stocks might dip and then have the rally of all rallies.
@@superchuck3259 The man is right , the US dollar hit over 99 this week on the US dollar index , the highest ever .
1. We have been living under a British controlled military Protectorate since the spring of 1863.
2. In order to end this Protectorate, we have to organize our unincorporated States of the Union and "reconstruct" our own federal-level States of States organizations. We haven't done that, so the Protectorate drags on.
3. We haven't been told anything about this necessary action or taught anything about it in school, because the British and the Pope have been benefiting from it--- at our expense.
4. Thus, technically, we are in this bind as a result of our own inaction, but we can hardly be expected to ever take action because we aren't made aware of the fact that we need to do anything of the sort.
5. Now that we finally "woke up" and realize what must be done, we find that we have been misrepresented by those benefiting from this continuing travesty in Breach of Trust, and have been deliberately misidentified as criminals and slaves belonging to the Municipal United States Government.
6. These so-called "Fourteenth Amendment citizens" are a political sub-class created by Congress in the wake of the Civil War as a means to re-enslave plantation slaves and convert their ownership from private ownership to public ownership.
Read that--- these people were owned by private slave owners prior to the war, and then were claimed by and owned by public sector slave owners --- the Municipal Washington, DC Government operated by members of Congress [See Article I, Section 8, Clause 17 -- these vermin have been running their own plenary oligarchy in competition with our actual government.] as public property after the war.
Let that sink in. And now let it sink in that they have deliberately and with malice aforethought falsified records to claim that you are such a "Fourteenth Amendment citizen of the United States".
In 1866, "Civil Rights" were created by the Civil Rights Act of 1866. This was done to define for the rest of the world how Congress intended to treat their new slaves, and what privileges they would guarantee to these unfortunates.
Also in 1866, the Municipal Congress adopted the Metric System, a foreign system of weights and measures, by which they could define their new slaves in a system separate from the rest of the population. Babies born into this new form of slavery would be weighed using kilograms and grams instead of pounds and ounces. This would also then serve to "convey" them automatically into Admiralty Jurisdiction.
To expedite the "conveyance" of people from one status to another, they adopted a system of "conversion" allowing them to legally convert pounds into metric weights and measures. and thus from a condition of natural freedom and national land law, into a condition of slavery under Admiralty Law, at the same time. [See the Metric Act of 1866. Thanks for this information goes to Kurt Kallenbach.]
Former plantation slaves were the original targets of this malice which benefited both the British Monarch and the Pope: since these people exist under Admiralty Jurisdiction the British Monarch can control and tax them, and as they are owned by the Municipal United States, so can the Pope.
Over time, this scam and outrage against common decency and our Constitution proved so profitable that they created the "Federal Reserve" --- an institution formed and financed solely on "human capital" and on our "good faith and credit": our "presumed" slavery, in other words.
They simply abused their positions of trust to falsify records and claim that we are all their slaves, all "Fourteenth Amendment citizens of the United States", as recently verified by the US State Department.
7. In concert with the creation of the Federal Reserve, the guilty corporations responsible for all this began the conversion of our Lawful Money into Legal Tender --- fiat "Federal Reserve Notes". Such Promissory Notes are I.O.U.'s promising future repayment, no different than any other I.O.U.
Many people are still confused about this. They think that when they went to a bank and got a "home loan" or a "car loan" that they were given something of actual value by the bank, but instead they were given I.O.U.'s. In fact, they were duped into loaning their homes and their cars as assets that the banks seized upon and used as the basis to extend credit to other "borrowers" ---and profit themselves, of course.
A "home loan" in this system is a loan of your home to them, and all they give you for it in return is a share of their already pre-existing debt and their mortgage.
As a "State of State" organization, these same criminals are holding title to your home and land under a purported protective custodial "relationship" owed to your public trust: JOHN MAYNARD DOE, for example, and they have "hypothecated" debt against your home and land already, resulting in a mortgage owed by the State of State, like the State of California.
This is the mortgage you get stuck paying off for them. It has nothing to do with your "voluntary" loan of your home to them, when you mistakenly agreed to a "home loan"---- and everything to do with yet another level of fraud being practiced against you by the banks, your employees, and your international trustees--- the Pope and the Queen.
8. Since the adoption of the "Federal Reserve System" by the Municipal United States Government, you have been forced under the false pretense that you are a "Fourteenth Amendment citizen of the United States" to exchange your labor and goods for nothing but their empty paper promises to pay.
Your goods and labor are exchanged for I.O.U.s --- evidences of debt owed by a foreign corporation. If you accept an I.O.U. as payment for a glass of lemonade, are you the Debtor or the Creditor?
The Creditor.
If you accept Federal Reserve Notes as payment for your house, are you the Debtor or the Creditor?
The Creditor.
In all of these transactions you are providing actual and factual goods and labor and they are providing promises to pay at some unknown future date.
And they never pay, so you never get paid, and that is what creates their National Debt and your National Credit.
Because these vermin operate as corporations, they simply run up your credit to the stratosphere, then declare bankruptcy, and leave you on the hook as the "presumed" co-signer to pay their debts.
That's what happened in 2009 when the vermin bankrupted their trademarked "Federal Reserve System" and shifted their debts onto the backs of the weary public slaves --- all the presumed-to-exist "Fourteenth Amendment citizens of the United States".
So, having read this, read it again. And again. Read it however many times it takes to sink in, and then, ask yourself ---- am I a "Fourteenth Amendment citizen of the United States"? Have I received anything of actual value in return for my goods and services, or have I been the source of whatever value there is in these transactions?
Am I a Creditor in this situation, or a Debtor?
And while you are at it, notice that the "Fourteenth Amendment" is itself a sham and a fraud, a measure adopted by a Scottish corporation as a By-Law to Articles of Incorporation disguised as the Territorial United States Constitution and merely doing business as "The United States of America, Incorporated". That corporation, formed in Scotland in 1868, went bankrupt in 1907. It's long defunct, and so is its "Fourteenth Amendment".
9. So here's the "news" for the Pope and the Queen: you are responsible for these corporations and their operations on our shores. They have operated as crime syndicates and you are responsible for their misdirection. The Pope is responsible under Ecclesiastical Law to shut them down. You are both responsible for these despicable and criminal claims, acts, and frauds perpetrated in Breach of Trust against every American.
The debts of these corporations over and above market rates of services we agreed to receive as part of the Constitutions, are all yours, and the interest and leases and other fees and escrows owed, together with the actual principal assets--- are all ours. We claimed our "reversionary trust interest" all the way back to our days in Heaven, and we are the Priority Creditors without any doubt.
This aged well
I'm thinking be 1/4 in gold silver now. and go to 2/4 if it gets real low. Invest the 1/4 in good companies that will go and never go backrupt. 1/2 in equities if the market crashes.
Gold has not been a safe haven, it has been a balancer of trade deficits.
Amazing update he's basically spot on only person who has been this far back.
he forgot to say 'and think about how I might be wrong'
TRUTH.......Can not be made to be untrue. I agree with Mr Brent Johnson
Filmed in May 29, 2018
Thx
You can read the intro. Well done. lol
Good point !
So far the dollar is gaining value against every other currency, so his theory is making the right predictions.
@@WALLACE9009
His theory relies on continued interest rates increases, the fed are cutting and most likely to cut 2 more times this year.
Back to 0% we go!
Dollar Index when this video was filmed: 93.4, today is at 104. It has risen, but it hasn't skyrocketed
With advent of paper contracts, precious commodities are manipulated.
He was right! Even when at that time Covid wasn't even a thing!
6 months later annnnnnnnnd your WRONG! Didn't you also loose a bet for one gold coin to Peter Schiff.
Lose not loose
This was a great interview and viewpoint when it was released before the summer of 2018. A lot has changed and the Fed has completely caved to the market.
"I think interest rates will rise..."
JUST SAY IT RIGHT IN THE BEGINNING SO I CAN QUIT WATCHING RIGHT AWAY. YOU ARE WRONG BTW.
I do appreciate that he addressed the counter arguments against his theory, but the linchpin of his theory is that the United States is still perceived as a "safe haven". However, foreign direct investment in the US has peaked in 2018 and is now in decline. Chinese investment in the US is down in total by 97%, and foreign demand for US treasuries is pretty much gone. The stock market is probably peaking too with DJIA at over 27000. Real estate has peaked and is now slowing down. So, what safe havens are left?
The love of money is the root of all sorts of injurious things. Benefiting off the suffering/losses of others is evil!
11:45 If someone defaults it could raise the price of the dollar...which would make other debtors more likely to default as well. Where does it stop? What happens then?
Wrong! Dollar is getting a LOT weaker, it’s the only way to find the debt and keep the economy afloat.
“The Euro is just a disaster.. I don’t know how else to say it”
!
So true!
smart traders don't telegraph trades. smart traders don't tell ANYONE what they are doing. smart traders keep their mouths shut and stay laser focused on the trade at hand.
If a money manager has already "put the trade on", and has conviction in his positions, there's little "downside" to going public with it. I would assume that he's long USD against the Euro (and long USD against a few other currencies).
He did not speak as a trader but simply presented the global capital flows allowing you to think for yourself.
It's true. We should only follow smart, self-seeking, money-driven traders who keep their mouth shut. Anyone who opens their mouth is obviously a loser.
What about the Pump and Dump method?
In a world wide meltdown, Why wouldn’t all USD borrowers default?
he's got it all backwards....interest rates are going negative...that's good for gold. QE was extremely inflationary....its'just the inflation showed up in stock prices, real estate, fine art, yachts, etc. etc...it never made it to main street. (yet)
@Brent, you said despite fed flooding $21 trillion, why gold is not going up?
Well, a couple months make a difference. QE4 right around the corner. Fiat is dead, we just keep shocking the corpse.
sorry but the Fed is already backpedaling on raising rates and reducing it's balance sheet, it's not happening anytime soon. They know that removing it would cause a 2008 style crisis again or worse and nobody wants to be responsible for causing that.
oh dear, yet another gold salesman!!
btc up again
Did you even watch the video before you made your halfwitted comment?
Wrong. Watch the video again and listen this time.
And imagine if you owned 100 ounces right now. Would you sell it ?
Buy silver
I've seen a few of these flicks where investors talking about profit in the near future in spite of "Doom & Gloom" theory that the world's economy will crash, that "money" will go to zero and so on - I believe too it will - but where does profit come into this picture when money crashes? Can someone enlighten me, please?
Watching this today 24thSep2019 shows how prophetic this thesis was. Kudos to RVF
Watching it today 1 October 2019 really makes me wonder... $1460.
Watching this today 22. September 2022, he nailed it. Apart of the price of the Gold 1700$ 😅😊😂
@@AnarchoEconomy yup! He called the run up in equities
only 7 months later, fed rates have been cut for twice.
Watching this now in August 2019 and this guy was so very wrong.
Can someone please tell me where and how do you buy gold? Thank you!
Is this old footage from 2007?
This appears to be a year old. Looking at the USD index DYX, the dollar has strengthened significantly over the last year. On the other hand, I think we are in uncharted territory economically and I can find 5 videos of guys predicting the USD will crash.
QE is in place right now in America...
dollar and Gold going up since this video
Yes but other places are even worse. Like Europe. In Europe we have very low interest rates, negative interest rates for money Banks parks at EZB, EZB is buying European treasury Bonds with new money (Largarde will do more from the same), low to zero growth, the Immigrant crisis, high taxes, too much socialistic politics, the climate religion (with our new Messias Greta) which will nearly shut down some of our industries we still keep, greenwashing, car-bashing, burning SUV's and more ....
Very impressed by this video and the original thinking behind Mr. Johnson's analysis (he is making a clever extrapolation from the dollar rally that took place between 1980-86), although I think it is somewhat incomplete. For every action, there is a reaction and we are seeing that now with the FED threatening to lower rates after the ECB said it would lower rates. The FED is not just going to sit idly by and let the value of the dollar get out of control. It WILL take steps to prevent that. It might fail, which means Mr. Johnson will be spot on. It might have mixed success, in which case Mr. Johnson could be mostly correct, but the outcome will not be as extreme as he foresees. It might have some degree of success, in which case the outcomes predicted will be muted. I would like to see an outcome analysis based on different scenarios of FED action from him.
No more QE? Lol. Look at repos right now. Milkshake melting.
It's NOT QE. It's balance sheet Covfefery and Neo Normalization. If you plot all of this on an exponential logarithmic chart it all looks quite normal.
@@jamesstewart1916 nothing in any markets are normal at the moment 😅
Seems correct today
His "checkmate" theory that there won't be enough consumers in America to support emerging markets if the dollar falls is ridiculous. China. Dubai. India. Tons of new consumers out there
GME MOASS BABY LFGGGGG
Mr. Johnson, what if the FED front runs this dollar strength? They see what you see only earlier. The recent pause is the early response to EM chaos. First forward guidance on the pause, then actual pause, then forward guidance on lowering rates, then actual lowering of rates, then forward guidance on QE, then actual QE. So by the time this unfolds, we are in 2021, dollar is weakening, etc. etc. etc.
He is saying the same thing Martin Armstrong is. Much higher US dollar leading to currency crisis, leading to monetary event like a new global monetary system.
That is Rickard's point of view as well.
Martin Armstrong is saying the same thing. Dollar, stock market and gold will all go up in unison because people will lose faith in the government and these will be the only instruments to park your $$
Take a sip of your beer
every time he says the word
"think"
I guess that milk shake turned sour, huh?
Some people should just not open their mouth...
what are you on about the USD has been pumping
@@daxx3075 yes its going to keep pumping hyperinflation soon
Timeframe matters.
Over a year later...he is dead wrong...interesting these talking heads.
I’m just watching this now - I think he was right about the crazy amount of foreign-owned dollar denominated debt which has kept dollar demand strong. But that milkshake analogy - so does that mean the Fed is now barfing up its milkshake and the rest of the world is still willing to lick it up?!?
@@ianhutagalung641 Personally I think the only thing keeping the dollar strong is; A) Historically strong since WW 2. B) The ratio of printed money vs overall liability is low C) All other currencies are in worse shape. This just kicks the can down the road...but for how long? Now, with the US dumping TRILLIONS into their economic IV bag...it will be interesting indeed, what happens.
once upon a time this was conspiracy theory
What is not mentioned by these forecasters is that the American & European Economies have matured with capital markets seeking fewer opportunities to maximize their returns. It appears that the ExecutiveBranch is attempting to influence the Fed by lowering the borrowing rates that may have unintended or intended consequences of destabilizing an economy that should be left to it’s own corrective internal forces. Capital markets abhors a vacuum.
Totally wrong this guy. The Dollar is tanking.
We'll see what happens when the music stops...
Tanking? Seriously. It has been steadily gaining value against all other currencies.
@@WALLACE9009 In a world of shit the dollar is the best shade of brown. This isn't saying much.
@@grahamdougherty226 Correct. And that is exactly his point. He says that the dollar will get stronger, and it is getting stronger and that the stock market will inflate at first, and it is inflating. It will be like when a piece of the Titanic rose up in the air before sinking forever.
Bad bet.check the budget of the defense industry, 2019 against previous economic cycles. strong dollar,strong defense budget.
Great educational video, hope to hear more videos like these.
You can't spend gold anywhere. People will be going to Bitcoin. Plus as gold prices rises, there is more incentive to mine gold (increases supply) and there is more incentive to sell fake gold (increases supply). That won't happen in bitcoin ever. Why is this so hard to understand? Excellent theory nonetheless. Everything else is spot on....
You can't spend gold anywhere but people will buy Bitcoin? Are you serious?
@@theTOOLshed1 Why would't I be? Millenials do not and will not own gold. And we will have the wealth. All market peaks are generational peaks.