Tesla Optimus (humanoid robot) is going to be wild (Ep. 765)
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- Опубліковано 30 вер 2024
- Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot could potentially revolutionize the world with its ability to learn and perform countless physical tasks through over-the-air software updates. As AI capabilities continue to skyrocket, the usefulness of the robot will exponentially increase, driving demand for the product and allowing it to take advantage of the rapid improvements in artificial intelligence.
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I got an OTA update by watching Dave Lee
😂
😂😂😂😂
Think of an app store for Optimus functionalities like cooking, gardening, cleaning,...
Possibly 3rd party AI companies can also build specific Optimus functionalities and sell them in the Tesla app store.
Thanks Dave. You helped me learn. Old-style.
Watch an OTA update in 2027 be hacked by Skynet A.I. and Optimus goes into full murder mode and tries to keep stabbing you with a knife. Owners better keep an aluminum baseball bat near by.
Thanks Dave for the exceptional run down on Bots infinite possibilities. Definitely OTA with learning power to boot, it will become an extremely useful tool for all seasons and for all purposes and no meaningful competition in sight, but they will eventually show up, but by the time they come around to build anything close I am sure Elon beautiful mind will make them obsolete, with some other marvelous diabolic invention better change to angelic, as Elon is definitely at the right side of God considering how much he will be able to achieve that benefits men kind.
Dave, can you do a napkin math about the Tesla bot ? And thx for all the great insights you gave to us!
be interesting to see how optimus works with humans. Optimus, we are going to fold this sheet, I will hold this end, you do the same as I am at the other end.
Won’t work because non physical ai will displace so much knowledge workers that they will offer to do the physical jobs for such low costs that physical robots and maintenance won’t be appealing
Anything you can do I can do better
I can do anything better than you
And has sucked..Unless you sit behind a desk and daytrade every 10 minutes....I'm not impressed with tesla stock it's just another lackluster share to own.
Can’t wait to see the forums complaining about Tesla being late on getting out a carbonara recipe
If you teach it that, maybe you can get a cent every time an Optimus cook it.
That incentative would flood it's recipe repertoire!
If Optimus would have had wheels, it would have been a bike.
Very funny!
British carbonara eh? 😂
I bet there will be a subreddit called r/optimush
I just need Optimus to help cut the grass and pull weeds. That would so be amazing.
The way 2017 hardware drives a 2 ton car at speed of over 80 , doing your request is a cake walk .. I want robots to sort trash so that more can get recycled and less gets polluted 🙏
I just need Optimusette
I have a robot that cuts the grass with FSD and Scheduling, really not a worthy task for Optimus. But trim bushes and hedges would be great
You are gonna have a dirty robot. I hope they are easy to clean.
A robot with a non humanoid factor would be more efficient for that task
Can't wait till Optimus can sit there with me and teach me to play musical instruments like a teacher then pour a double whiskey 🤣
Optimus is the ultimate product.
You should try the whiskey before the music lesson
I'm only letting Optimus pour me a double if he shares a glass with me.😁
❤❤❤@@SkyCuration
As a polio survivor in his 70's, having Optimus to lift me up (from the floor or potty) would be life changing. No telling what else it could do. Can't wait to get mine🙃
Seems like you could put on an Optimus exoskeleton to get you around.
yep, could save some of us from the resthome aswell.
If you are over 30, think of how much the smart phone has changed society and daily life. Optimus will be orders of magnitude more capable than a smart phone, so it is difficult to imagine how much it and its ilk will change life.
How did you calculate the magnitudes? Imagination is not reality.
@@mddell24... Imagination is ABSOLUTELY what drives change and innovation!!
@@SteveFarmerMusic invest then imagine :) good luck
think how long it took for the smart phone to mature, how many decades.. how many iterations and it's no robot... the robot will take 10x longer... think in terms of decades and not years. People are investing based on Hollywood movies.
@@ChronicKPOP ... your correlation may be correct... or it may be absolutely incorrect. The real question is, how do you KNOW which is correct, and to what degree?. We can't know that. Only time will truly tell. "Investing" is always toward the future, and determining a personally acceptable thesis toward to reason to be specifically invested into the idea (it's always idea, i.e. "imagination", in the early stages of iteration). Best of "luck" to all! 😄
Hi Dave glad to have you back!
FSD v14 will have us sleeping in our cars behind the wheel. FSD vOptimus will have us replacing our girlfriends
Optimus will have us replacing our GFs 😂 👍👍👍
And boyfriends
@@howtoactuallyinvest 😳
😂
@@wheelofcheese100 that will be the end of humanity
Using OTA updates for Just-in-Time (JIT) skill downloads will be far more efficient. This way, Optimis can ship with general routines, build its skill portfolio with JIT-OTA updates (perhaps for a price), then upon reaching storage capacity, "forget" skills that have not been practiced for a long while to make room for new skills.
I think humans will be hooked on their personal robot like a smart phone is for us now.
I don't think so.
Sad, but likely true
@@bru512 Never going to be true, even from a basic physics stand. Humans are extremely agile in and out of vehicle/PT/buildings/snow/ice/wind rain hot cold ... Humans are 100+ more energy efficient, Our vision is light years ahead of digital vision... The whole idea a machine can mimic organic life is so disconnected from reality.
Will Optimus be able to make me a sandwich and bring me a beer? 😂
Uber eats will deliver both.
Yes no problem
After cutting lawn and doing dishes and laundry.
Everyone is going to get even fatter 😂
@livinglife1089 we can have Opti exercise for us!
Without a doubt, this year will be worse than the last. I lost a lot of money last year as a result of bad investment choices that I would not have made if I hadn't been so worried about my portfolio. I kept investing, but I couldn't determine whether to start paying for a house. In the end, I sold my positions, and the house needed more work than I had planned. I'm not sure how long I can keep going like this
Everybody has erred at some point. It's wise that you think about financial planning.
Please let me know who your adviser is if it's okay; I need some recommendations
*Leah* *Foster* *Alderman*
Simply glance over her details to learn more.
Another advisor Scam 😂 👆
Optimus should be able to perform maintenance on itself
Or meet up with other Optimi and repair each other 😊
@@malkum61 Maybe even Free-for-all group repair sessions.
@@johannesdolch... this is getting more fun by the minute! 😁🤣
That crappy robot….really? No wonder the shares have been in the toilet for three years.
Thank you for sharing. Financial education is crucial today to show incredible resilience and discipline in the volatile market, masterfully balancing strategy and insight for success. This dedication to continuous learning is inspiring...managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Francine Duguay, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Francine Duguay program is widely available online.
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Productivity is never accidental; it is always the result of careful planning, dedication, and consistency.
no less than 25 years.... sorry folks, for now it's a gimmicky toy - not to be taken seriously anytime soon. AI yes.. but mechanical takes an extreme amount of time to mature. Never ever ever count on these to make money. If you doubt it, look to Boston Dynamics.
Guess I can buy a robot to organize my eggs in the fridge
I would be far more impressed if the Robot proved the eggs were not hardboiled.
Will the robots have the skills in them or will they have to be connected at all times to accomplish their 'chores'? Edit: Is it going to be pay monthly or do you buy the skills? Will it have extra memory slots to expand it's abilities and otherwise be upgradeable?
Tesla is so far behind the competition, even with all the faked videos they've made of the Tesla-bot.
This is so far in the future that is stupid talking about in a weekly basis, or not?
I can imagine there being a hardware cost up front, as well as a subscription cost to packages of skills. Such as a household task subscription for $100/mo and then other ones you may not need all the time.
I very much doubt (sadly) that it'll be a one-time purchase and done. I think we'll have to subscribe to get the new features.
In about 20-30 years I will need someone to help me walk, clean my house, and cook my food. I'm actually looking forward to Optimus.
The bot and the cars should be StarLink enabled. That makes so many things possible.
they could wear their starlink terminals as graduation caps. everything they download something, they graduate at something
I beg you to stop saying “anyways” like a California schoolgirl. It’s anyway. Anyways means nothing.
Anyways is a nonstandard form of anyway. It's part of our vernacular. It's not just California.
Totally agree Dave. For example I am going to have my Optimus as my doubles partner and training partner in Table Tennis. In addition my Optimus (Called Dave by the way or maybe Wilson) is also going to ride as my No.2 on my Tandem Bike. I could go on but you get my drift.
Yes we get it you are lonely.
Optimus will benefit from solving the hardest AI problem of them all, FSD. One of the most complicated things we learn as humans is to drive. Most other tasks will be easier to achieve.
We allow teenagers with a few hours training to do this, with no restriction on intelligence level, other than being able to answer some basic rules test.
@@joeschey8836 yep, and their insurance is x5 what experienced drivers pay(well in my country anyway)
Driving really isn't that difficult. Stay in your lane, except when passing, keep proper distance, don't turn into oncoming traffic, check blind spot before changing lanes. The rules are really simple, it's just that people don't follow the rules.
FSD is basically a 2D, non- communicative, limited action model. For a functioning robot you need a 3D model with communication and full manouverability. In short you better start from scratch and only us some modules from FSD.
not to be rude but isn't what you're saying extremely obvious to your audience? there will likely be an app store to download certain skills to your bot, not just OTAs.
This seems the logical way to do it. Anyone will be able to teach An Optimus new skills and can then be submitted to the App Store for others to purchase. Scary stuff. But I can't see how this won't be inevitable
@@gentrydc1 yeah I hadn’t considered it being concerning but I suppose you’re right, there are many safety issues to consider.
We missed you dave. Thanks for coming back
Just make one with RealSkyn material.....
Tank: Let’s see…How about some combat training.
Buzzing sound
Neo: I know kungfu
Oooo I think he likes it
The stock pumper Dave
Now my wife wants ME to get an OTA udate....😮
So glad to have you back Dave. You offer a unique perspective and are a great guy. Wishing you peace and love ❤️
Thanks Dave, welcome back!!!! Your comment are always insightful.
Thanks!!!
My Bot name is Omnibus. at precisely 6.45 am gently wakes me up with a warm muffin and a Cappuccino the likes of which cannot be had in the best places in town. Then he asks me if I prefer a walk in the park or a little drive around town to pick up some groceries. Back home, he asks me what I would prefer to eat for lunch. Go ahead and surprise me please. Lunch time is set every day at 12.45 I walk in the dinette and I am served with a delicious state of the art light lunch masterfully prepared. The quality of life since Omnibus has become part of the family is so vastly improved that its running costs and rental price is such a bargain that I am thinking to add a second one to just take care of the garden, fruit orchard, and grow some vegetable and other eatable greens. Dreaming ? Yes. But not for Elon Musk for he takes the matter very seriously, to make sure to deliver in time just that.
😊Thanks for giving us the information and advancements that this Optimus can accomplish!🤔 But I do have a concern about where my private family information will finally wind up at. 🙄 I mean like China they use AI to closely monitor their people. I wouldn't want that to happen here!🇺🇸❤
Great insight Dave, you are always expanding my way of thinking! Just the first few thoughts of this video got me thinking in new ways of thinking about the robots. They don't need the same info that the cars do to be effective. They can advance quicker and more easily because they don't always need to avoid causing damage in the way that cars do. Conclusion : They will be here quicker than we all thought...
I'm skeptical of how capable optimus could be at a thing like farming. That work takes a ton of energy, it's obviously introducing all kinds of contamination and dirt, it requires extreme dexterity and probably a high sense of touch, not just vision, as you're doing things within the soil that you can't even see...
I'm optimistic but that sounds like a use case that's way down the road
I believe OTA implies wi-fi. I can make a case for not putting a wi-fi modem into Optimus. Plugging a robot in for data transfer minimizes the hackability. Not really the point of your video Dave, but worth mentioning I think.
The robot will also need to learn where my fridge is and what beer I prefer. I guess that is local knowledge that should not be distributed.
But the knowledge that cold beer is in the refrigerator, and refrigerators are usually found in the kitchen, which is usually near the living room, which is near the front entry door IS “universal knowledge” that MAY let your robot successfully bring you the beer you desire as soon as you bring it home.
@@737smartin, So it is a gray area in between with general knowledge and local knowledge. It will be very interesting to follow the development.
@@perjohanohlsson Certainly, having more general intelligence can help you negotiate new problems adequately. Likewise, an idiot with specialized training may be able to execute a specific task better than a genius--especially the first time or two.
I don't think Dave there's a chance Tesla won't perform well with robotics, the question is only _how_ well will they perform in each area they compete in.... they do need to the "Biden shuffle" sped up though 😅
there will be app store for anyone uploading their skill and selling them. ".....I know Kung Fu...." 👊🥋
Forget AI the main hurdle for humanoid robots is bi ped walking. The ones we see walking are on flat surfaces. Even stairs they take there times. Humans without thinking lean forward up a hill on a side to side stride. Down the hill you lean back. Rocky, muddy terrain your brain is constantly balancing you while you feel you occasionally adjust and balance on uneven terrain a robot will have to be able to pivot and regain its balance let's say loose soil as it can be difficult sometimes for humans. We can have a machine falling over on humans
Didn’t Elon say it would be dangerous to have the Optimus be centrally updated? Like a general order 66 type problem? Hmm. I wonder how this will be managed…
In time a robot, b able 2 help u, poeple will need to be able to make software,repair them,to have a robot drive u around will b very scary!,just like crazy humans, with the wrong software, things can get pretty bad !
i love the idea of having AI available to my brain but once everyone gets it wont conversation and new ideas be boring since were all accessing the same information and our intelligence would be the exact same. Plus fields like finance where people are making money buying stocks and shorting them. Wont they all have the same conclusions on the smartest investments making it impossible to get an edge and therefore the stock market will cease to function properly.
I can see thousands of apps you can buy. You can lease a basic cooking app then add on a 3rd party Chinese or Mexican cooking app. I could see literally millions of 3rd party apps that could be leased. Tesla could take a 30% cut similar to the Apple app store. I could see trillions/year in revenue.
FSD and optimus are in development with no guarantees they will be timely or useful enough in the next few years. Tesla has a bit of an earned reputation to overpromise/underdeliver. As investors we need to temper our excitement based on aspirations. Tesla aspired to make 20 million vehicles by 2030 and this has been scuttled with estimates about half of that best case.
I think telsa should continue driving for improvements to their AI, but should also have a large effort using the AI tools created by Nvidia. Production of the bots is almost a given but if nvidia beats Tesla at ai it would be very benefitial to have a drop in AI model and rely on teslas production capabitilitys to become the market leader.
Dave
I have the idea. What if Optimus will be able to drive a ICE car? All aktualne ICE cars will be FSD cars or ICE robotaxis?
Eventually a given hardware setup will top out in what can do. There are only so many weights in the model. Over time, the robots will need more storage and compute (therefore more battery) to offer more complicated or finessed skills.
I can imagine a world where a highly developed Optimus robot is so useful and ubiquitous that it is truly the great equaliser for humanity. Everyone will have access to a humanoid robot that the need to fight each other for resources is simply greatly reduced. The end result could well be the end of wars.
As complex as weed pulling is, I’m skeptical that a robot could manage this task. There is a balance between pressure, hand/surface area grip to force, feeling the root release with the correct rate/force to eliminate breaking off the stem and leaving the root etc.
Hey do you think Optimus will have an app store. People could build apps for skills and make money. Robot owners could download the app nd pay and get additional functionalities
Finally the AI hype is coming back to reality where it is currently nothing more than an alternative search engine. And robots struggle to put a cylinder into a square hole. Also I don’t need a robot to cook meals, I need a robot that will go to my job for me.
I think this could be a game changer for people who need assistance around the home due to physical limitations or in other fields where there is short staffing due to the lack of an interested workforce. Home health care could be helpful for physically demanding duties. Nurses working side by side with these bots. Patients being able to get a nurse while simpler tasks are handled by the bots. There is so much potential.
There will be millions of Optimus applications. One way to scale apps development is to open the Optimus store, which allows 3rd party apps development.
If you think carefully about the fine motor skills that are required to fix a toilet or weed a garden, you will realize humanoid robots will not be doing these tasks anytime soon. Also dirt and water don’t mix well with most machines.
Dave, I have been wondering if a Optimus Robot who si talked to track the content in a warehouse could be tempted to lie about the findings or manipulated in some way?
eergh.. privacy issues, think people get comfy having this online hooked up cameras walking around thier home?
How will robots know if what it cooked tastes really good without traditions passed onto us by our parents/grandparents, generational human creativity tweaks and innate sense of taste and smell?
Optimus is going to be a joke. We’ve been hearing this for 50-100 years. We’d be foolish to think now is the time
I'd rather they have built-in obsolescence so that people come back to buy the new shiny one, more money printing!!
If it downloads a recipe request per owner they will expand the repertoire exponentially until all of them know how to cook every version of every meal.
I can’t help but feel the optimism on Optima is overhyped and will take substantially longer to produce a functional productive robot.
I’m really only interested in what this will mean for Tesla stock in the long term. I’d imagine Teslabot will be a business product for quite a long time - deployed by Tesla itself initially and then available to other businesses. There’s a big market here and I doubt Tesla will need/want to go to a consumer version for a while yet.
Yes, it may mean eventually we can have ‘buddies’ etc. but I don’t see this as the primary sales channel, it will be way easier to sell it to businesses first.
I estimate that the ETA of a domestically capable robot would be about 2040.
Curious about android robot battery/energy use and expenditure. How often do they need to be recharged?
Will the robots or the cars ever be able to learn new things on their own without requiring gigantic training center data center?
I just can't justify bringing a spy for Elon into my home.
Will my Optimus qualify as a passenger so I can use the HOV lanes? :)
This guy doesn't look very good, something bothering him?
OAUs is just The Matrix is coming to real life.
So glad you are back.
Man did I miss your videos!
Like in the movie Matrix "I know kung fu" moment
What was the usefulness of this video? I would say zero.
That is some fanciful speculation Dave ...
Optimus as a deck hand to sail around the world!!!
Dave you are the best.
Not NEARLY as insane as the cyber truck when that comes out
Wraps for the tesla bot! C3PO anyone!?
If it can clean cat litter boxes, feed my cats, pick up all cat hair from the stairways, organize my closet, clean and organize the fridge, take out garbage, cook dinner, make my bed, do laundry fold and put them away, style my hair in the morning, and maybe go to work for me… I’d be willing to buy one.
Heck, I wont evn need a husband.
It has long fingers too.
You will be able to train the robot your self through vision
Martial arts download complete - Matrix style
As we race.towards the cliff man we are dummies
So I want it to drive my 4wd truck/car for me 🙂
we'll all have VR goggles to train our bots.
The first military to figure out a mil-spec ruggedized humanoid military will no longer need to worry about food or healthcare or sleeping quarters or latrines or rest, or ptsd.
The “supply chain” for solar-electric power can be short, indeed.
this is the worst thing we're doing to ourselves EVER.
I dont believe in AI until a robot can tie a shoelace.
Good point. Elon said that he will show Optimus threading a needle, which to me is a similar level of difficulty.
@@denisharding5606 unsure as threading a needle is straight. Tieing a shoelace involves high level of co-ordination and dexterity and complex feeling and skill. But a human kid can do it. AI cant? Then its not that intelligent. Its just good at learning thats all and then relaying