Taiwanese here: Things to think about 1. 87% of Taiwanese under 18 year old are Near sighted 2. Xi has to promise to take Taiwan to justify his reign 3. Chinese economy is in bad shape due to COVID 4. Chinese demographics is heavily crippled by one child policy
As a Taiwanese, I am really surprised that you have a good understanding of Taiwan's political and social reality and historical development. Thank you for sharing the information to others. A lot of things are happening in Taiwan right now, but we are managing to find our way out.
I’m admittedly very biased on this, being ethnically Han and an immigrant from Taiwan (technically first, but I identify as second-gen as I grew up in America from infancy). Still, Taiwan is a steadfast ally and a shining example of liberalism and democracy in Asia. It’s solidly pro-American and maintains strong ties with Japan, another close American ally that has openly committed to Taiwan's defense. Strategically, Taiwan is crucial in the first island chain and critical in preventing the PRC from establishing a dominant presence in the Pacific. I think it would be a terrible mistake to allow Taiwan to fight alone, as it would doubtlessly lose against the PRC without allies. It would also significantly degrade our reputation with our allies and send the wrong message that we are unreliable. That will permit the PRC to gain a considerably stronger position. Only about 4% of Taiwanese identify as the same Chinese as those on the mainland. About 20% see themselves as RoC Chinese-mainly older KMT voters who are becoming increasingly marginalized. Around 25% view themselves solely as Taiwanese, with most of us Zoomers backing the DPP. The rest have a nuanced identity, blending RoC and Taiwanese affiliations. Every man in Taiwan must also complete two years of military service between the ages of 20 and 22. The country has ramped up its investment in drone technology after closely observing its impact in the Ukraine war. Mainland Chinese hold mixed views on Taiwanese people. I get countless death and SA threats on Twitter, and Wumao Brigades constantly harass and try to silence people. The more “well-meaning” mainlanders just think we’re brainwashed and act in a patronizingly condescending manner over it. That and think we try to act "white," their words not mine. 🙏
When I was with DIA it was basically a daily occurrence that we expected China to move on Taiwan. It’s only a matter of time before they do, it’s just painstakingly annoying and anxiety inducing to predict when
as a person living in taiwan, I would say the portion that supports reunification with china is way below 25% (they still exists in a high profile) and both major parties are pretty much against it, just differs on how they'll do it. It's already a witch hunt in taiwan, where you're done for if someone claims you're a CCP sympathizer. the problem of taiwan is that the public support to a potential war is low, and it's the top priority that the MoD currently trying to solve. Every male is conscripted into the military once they're old enough, and most of them have a negative impression about it. to be honest, people here DON'T RESPECT THE MILITARY. they make fun of them all the time, and people with proper education refuces to serve the long term. we can talk about how much we want to defend our freedom on the internet, but when it takes your time and your money to help the nation doing so, how many of them will actually do? When you asked about whether did they serve in the military, they either did and hated it, or being proud of escaping from it successfully. They'd even rather buy scamming online course which sells first ait kit in the name of "defending taiwan from china", while the kit itself is made in and inported from china itself. When a war approaches, would people stay and be ready for mobilization, risk being bombed in a drone factory, or flee before the first shot fired? it's people that wins the war. lack of gas and oil? need ammunition? want better weapon? these might be possibly arranged somehow just like in Ukraine. but if the people have a wrong knowledge of the war and refuces to fight for it, it's over. The good thing is that they're working on it finally.
I naively didn't realize until recently how connected to geopolitics Green Berets may or may not be. You've proven yourself to be knowledgable on such topics. I am curious though was this a direct result of your work while active duty or just personal curiosity?
10 minutes ! Some of the benefits of sitting at home with Covid. Thanks to Trudeau, Canada is pretty much a Chinese colony. Great video and, as usual, very informative. Nate for POTUS.
Great breakdown mate. First class👍 It's great to see a Veteran who is so well-versed in history and geo-politics, instead of talking out their arses as too many do. It will be war or collapse (China included). Personally I lean more towards the latter, however am open to being wrong. Great shit Brother. Love from Australia👊
Could you do the same video with the other 2 major conflicts going on now as well? People really don’t know where to look and what to look for when it comes to events around the world potentially effecting America. Love the channel brother, from one vet to another!
Yo Nate, I heard you say in the 'Ones Ready' podcast interview that you wonder why people are interested in your videos or watch them. Personally, I was enlisted at the same time you were and have strong ties to the Army. Also, it's because I have always been interested in Marine Raiders, being a Marine myself. I wondered how the different groups compared to the Marine Raiders and MARSOC, and have found the Green Berets to be similar, while still unique. Your input on almost every topic is also therefore unique and interesting. Thanks, Nate.
Excellent quick synopsis. Scary times for sure. Very much looking foward to your next video on Physical and Tactical fitness. Always outstanding content, Thanks Brother ! Stay Hard. 🙏🇺🇸
Frankly, the Taiwan controversy was only a continuation of the Chinese Civil War (1946-1950). Most democracies sympathize with Taiwan simply out of values. I think if the U.S. military forces in the Asia-Pacific region are not directly involved in the war in Taiwan. Taiwan will be completely occupied by the PLA within a week. And the thinking of most Taiwanese is extremely naïve. They know almost nothing about military affairs. Because Taiwanese army is not at all an equal in magnitude opponent of the PLA. Taiwan is not Ukraine. Taiwan is an island. If the PLA begins to attack Taiwan, it will definitely set up a no-fly zone and a no-voyage zone. And dispatch all naval and air forces to guard the perimeter. This means that U.S and Japanese transport aircraft and transport ships cannot come close to the island. It is impossible to give Taiwan more weapons and equipment. And the area of Taiwan is less than 5% of Ukraine. And Taiwan does not have strategic depth. The war is also unlikely to drag on like Ukraine. China will only fight a quick victory. If the U.S military in the Asia-Pacific is involved War in Taiwan. Then all U.S military bases in Japan and South Korea, as well as in Southeast Asia, will be devastated. However, if Washington escalates further, the world will be on the brink of all-out nuclear war. Washington's actions in the light of the war in Ukraine. I do not think that the U.S military will be directly involved in the war in Taiwan. Because it's not sane and not cost-effective.🧐🧐🧐
Even with the gap between Russian and Ukrainian navy and air force, a no fly zone wasn’t set up, needless to mention the devastation of black sea fleet. Please use intelligence not imagination.
@@user_thelongwayaround Please look at the map carefully. Ukraine is a vast country, and it is completely impossible to establish a no-fly zone. Ukrainian area is even larger than France. It is not realistic to establish a no-fly zone over such a large country. No matter how strong the Russia Air Force is, it cannot be done. In addition, Ukraine is connected by land to Romania、Slovakia and Poland. These countries have a complete railway network with Ukraine. In fact, most of the military aid that Ukraine has received since the start of the war has been borne by these rail transports. Taiwan is an island, I state again. And its area is less than 5% of Ukraine. Moreover, the Taiwan Strait is not the Black Sea. The Black Sea is more like an inland sea surrounded by land. The Taiwan Strait and the Bashi Strait are open waters. China does not have any naval garrisons around the strait. Taiwan's navy and their special operations forces are unlikely to endanger Kainan Island, the base of the South China Sea Fleet. Because they are far apart. This no-fly zone and no-voyage zone will be established 20 nautical miles around the island of Taiwan. In this way, it does not seem to be very large, and it will not affect international shipping at all. No one would venture a merchant ship into a war zone.🤔🤔🤔🤔
@@user_thelongwayaround My extrapolations is based on reality and geography as well as geopolitics. It's not like you, based on smattering of knowledge imagination. Of course, I met a lot of these young people in Taiwan during my exchange at Tamkang University.
@@nirvana3921 You mentioned establishing an NVZ 20 NMs around the shoreline. Glad of you being so specific. The 20 NMs, which is around 40 km, is within range of unguided rockets. The wide range of military weapons for Taiwan to choose to confront the NVZ or NFZ is not the top concern for you now. Imagine China committed to establishing a NFZ or NVZ. What would be the context? Denying specific goods to be transported or indiscriminately denying all transportation? For the former scenario, how are you going to enforce? Boarding all ships passing through the strait and inspecting all the containers? Ridiculous. For the latter scenario, what would you do if one violates your orders? Are you going to force it into dysfunction? What would you do if a military vessel passes through, since many countries hold the stance of free navigation on international waters in this region. Regardless of what scenario you opted for, insurance for navigation will certainly spike as soon as China disclose the plan, which pumps up the price of shipments. Even worse, shipment might not be covered by insurance. This would hinder nearby countries,including China itself from accessing international goods, or at least hikes up the cost for trade. The real problem of only enforcing a NVZ or NFZ without an invasion to be a coercive method is that things could rapidly get out of hand, which fails the initial objective. I am still not going into the specifics of your assumptions that China is going to completely occupy the island in 7 days. Good talk though.
@@user_thelongwayaround You don't seem to understand the meaning of no-fly zones and no-voyage zones at all. In view of the war in the Gulf1991. The U.S. military blockaded the entire Persian Gulf in 1991. 20 nautical miles is equivalent to one-third the distance of the Taiwan Strait. Merchant ships can sail along the Chinese mainland side of the sea. Their aim is to make it impossible for all planes and ships to dock on the island of Taiwan. If there are violators. It can also be sunk or shot down. Because this is a war zone. Forewarned. According to the information, not only weapons and equipment. Taiwan's natural gas reserves can only last for a week. Oil only lasts for about a month. Such a blockade would be deadly.🤔🤔🤔
I think there’s a serious misunderstanding of Taiwan. Only 3-5% of the population are pro China for economic reasons. The majority of people voted for status quo, because it’s the only option the U.S. allows to vote for, since the USA opposes Taiwan’s independence aka one sided ending the civil war and getting Taiwan on it’s own way. 12% don’t care about the United States China policy and are willing to fight for a Declaration of Independence for Taiwan. I personally think the APAC region cannot count on the United States of America for national security.
Great Analysis. Many nuanced points that I had not heard before. On par and better stated than Peter Zeihan. I served a bit with the 19th SFG a long time ago; its fantastic to get your insights into the modern special ops world. Lots more fun that watching Hollywood's drivel. Keep it up, you are still serving the USA proudly and making a difference.
Us Japanese will definitely get involved. My biggest concern is the recruitment crisis as you mentioned in other videos. The SDF is facing the same problem and the situation seems hopeless. But I bet we are going to send help over Taiwan. We have many things in common and consider the nation as brother. I wouldn’t like to get aggressive here but China will meet a bad consequence if it dares to invade our peer. Thanks for your insight on this matter. Love and respect from Japan🇯🇵🇺🇸
Question...why not move the the other Battalions of 1st SFG to Hawaii so that they are closer to Asia and colocated with 25th ID and the Army Jungle Warfare Training Center?
We don't have a democracy in this country either. We have an oligarchy - which is rule by the rich. As an ordinary individual you voice (vote) does not matter. And it never did.
Thank you for covering this. Most people are focused on Russia-Ukraine which is understandable but the situation in the Pacific is not getting the attention it deserves.
Great analysis. As a Filipino, I'd also like to mention and ask you and other Han/Hoklo Taiwanese about my cousins, the indigenous peoples of Taiwan, and their thoughts and feelings of the situtation. They occupy the Eastern highlands of Taiwan, and usually lean more towards the KMT which is more pro-status quo rather than the ethnic Han and Hoklo who lean more towards the DPP which is more sympathetic towards Taiwanese independence. I wonder how they feel about the situation.
A lot of people focus on the Taiwan part, but no one seems to talk about the Philippines. The US has a treaty to come to their aid unlike Taiwan. Do you by any chase know what would happen if the frequent skirmishes that their coast guards get into goes bad and the Philippines calls on that mutual defense treaty. This would be a cool video idea.
As much as I dislike trump, he at least tries to not let America appear weak (which is kind of important considering the fact that they’re the world’s babysitter)
2025: It is generally agreed that China is unlikely to be fully prepared for an invasion by 2025. While China’s military buildup is rapid, many analysts believe that they would not have the level of logistical support and combat readiness needed for a successful large-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan within the next 1-2 years. 2026-2028: This period is often cited as a potential window for military action, with 2027 being a significant year for the People’s Liberation Army. In 2027, China will mark the centennial of the founding of the PLA (People’s Liberation Army), and there has been speculation that Xi Jinping may want to achieve significant military objectives, including the reunification of Taiwan, by then. By 2027, China is likely to have further developed its amphibious warfare capabilities, carrier strike groups, and improved air and missile systems, making an invasion more feasible from a purely military perspective. So if everything goes right for China I put my money on 2027. Beyond 2028: I believe if China decides to delay beyond 2028, it would be due to political or heavy international factors, including economic stability, domestic unrest or relations with the U.S. and its allies. A longer timeline would also allow China to further modernize its forces and ensure greater confidence in a successful military campaign.
2027 or 2028 is often cited and it makes sense too, if they can get Harris into the White House. Imagine Harris being in charge and no election being held due to the US having to engage in a major war. That would doom the US, too
As a young Asian American, I always seek out vets for information. These are the sources I trust especially when it comes to scenarios as these. While America might seem it is burdened to deal with these situations...it is actually us young Asian Americans that have the burden.
What are u talking about lmao wtf? Are you Asian or American? Also lots and lots of Americans who have Asian heritage don't have anything to do wit Taiwan or China, they have no relatives in either place and aren't from either place. We are Americans, ppl have all sorts of ancestors. Some of us Americans are of Asian ethnicities but doesn't mean Asian American its just American. Also I know its hot right now to be the biggest victim, ppl chase that title and want it badly, but ur just not man. If you are American and not another Chinese bot I'd be surprised. Its a strange way to communicate....it's like "its not Americas burden its only "Asian Americans" burden. Sounds like more of the same tactics China loves to use. Racial division. Remind ppl of their race over n over r n over and convince ppl to hyperfocus on race and incentivize ppl to tell the world online as loudly as possible that they are a victim because of their race specifically and the sheep won't even fact check they'll just start whining and demanding things online
China 🇨🇳 invaded Taiwan 🇹🇼 in 1949 and its force was crushed on the beaches of the island of Kinmen, which we Americans called Quemoy. Chairman Mao called his buddy, the Chicom Commanding General, and ordered him to not commit suicide.
I lik the 25/25/50 political explanation....very valid point.........What are the odds that Taiwan would simply surrender if the other allies decide not to intervene knowing that China has them so outnumbered? Especially if the current admin gets reelected?
The hurricane damage in North Carolina occurred, and here and there Trump was making a smug noise, “Biden, what is Harris doing in such a difficult time? But, you know, with climate change, things that used to happen only rarely are now happening as a matter of course. But we should keep in mind that it is people like Trump who are making money by ignoring the environment that are causing these disasters. How can you say that we should drill, drill, drill for fossil fuels, oil, and natural gas, which are bad for the environment?
Yeah lets just get rid of our biggest money maker as America, that totally wont destroy the U.S. economics. I see your point but its not nearly as simple as stop drilling and build solar panels, I wish it was.
Many Cargo Ship companies are located on China too. Not only Computer chips, smartphones and many Electronics will be prohibitively expensive but also International Trade will take a big hit if any tomfoolery happen in that region!
Hi Nate, that’s a very interesting insight on this possible future war, the only thing I disagree is with China having a lack of agricultural resources, yes they only have 30% of arable land but China is huge, and those 30% already make them the number 1 producers of food resources worldwide. So I think they wouldn’t necessarily struggle with food. But I don’t know, war is unpredictable.
a lot of detailed points on the military realities but I read the domestic politics differently, China, Iran, Russia are all aligned, countering Russia and Iranian proxies would make it less likely China thinks that way of doing things is a good idea, and I think between the CHiPs Act, shifting manufacturing to Mexico, exploring US shipbuilding in Japan (their shipyards are much more efficient than ours), the Afghanistan pullout, the bird eye view of the current admin has been to counter China
Nate keep up the good work with these geo-political vids. Your perspective on these topics def carries a lot of weight, given the nature of Green Beret work that its not just high-speed/brawn/door-kicking but also involves a lot of diplomacy and problem solving. I am attracted to SF for that reason and training up for 18x. Also can you please confirm that what Kamala Harris said in the debate that there are "no active duty soldiers currently in combat" is hogwash, like ok perhaps not in a peer-to-peer conventional type war but that remark just stank to high heaven of BS.
Hiya Nate, since I live in Okinawa as a Japanese American, and with how hard the Okinawan government is pushing to get rid of US Bases, do you then think China will shift focus from Taiwan to Japan? Because at least Taiwan has a standing army ready to fight versus Japan that is heavily reliant on American defense
Okinawa’s economy is so dependent on the U.S. now that they can’t have us leave. All of the calls for the U.S. to leave are just pandering from Chinese government paid officials and agitators. So no.
@@ValhallaVFT that’s what I thought, the local government is so deep in the CCP’s pocket it’s blatant. Unbelievable really how the Japanese government just lets it by without batting an eye…
Does China have the capabilities to air drop troops on the East coast of Taiwan or would that not be affective? I’m just curious about how much the cliff coasts protect Taiwan.
You should look up picture of our East coast, and Taiwan Central Mountain Range. The mountain basically divided the island into East and West side. Also our grandfathers decided it was easier to blow tunnel through the mountain instead of building road around it lol The mountain is prone to mud slide and raining boulders.
@@ooXChrissieXoo I have looked at the cliffs on google maps and watched a geography video about it. I’m more wondering if any nation has the technology and ability to actually invade a coast like that. I see modern militaries going to the most insane places and it makes me wonder what makes coastal cliffs so impossible to get around.
Too early, more likely by 2027. CCP is not prepared based on country economic status, support and awaiting results of US national election. Prefer to strike, if US is drawn into Ukraine conflict with Russia or over Irsael support in conflict with Iran. Divide resources to conquer. Retired strategic and joint operational military planner, MILGRP, and FAO.
Not really that would've lead to a war with USSR and who knows where that would go since in 1949 USSR had the bomb as well. I don't think anyone was willing to risk it for China realistically back then. When you think about historical things like these you gotta be able to take a point of view of the times back then, not knowing all that we know nowadays.
Hong Kong is different from Taiwan. Hong Kong legally reverted to Chinese rule in 1997. Hong Kong is also much closer to China than Taiwan. Taiwan, on the other hand, is an island, and has never been ruled by the Communist party.
America doesn't have enough manufacturing to go up against China or Russia Russia is basically showed America can't make enough and don't have enough stock in ammo. I don't like Americas odds. Afghanistan didn't work out to great for us neither did Vietnam and also the Korean war. Our track record doesn't look good
Our? Not our. Also, nice try at trying to confuse random ppl online with ur shit but ur comment accomplishes nothing to anyone who has even a clue about what this videos touching on. Ur not scaring anyone
@@jgghfghhfghggghyf7666not in us intrest, and it might can cause some tensions and threat from usa to saudi. But! Saudi need to take care of Saudi. And if they dont have comitment from USA to defend them. They will explore their options, even if its not serious about it but just to show usa they are checking options. So it a politic game which we will see how it will end....
Just thought of this scene from Armageddon, American components, Russian components, all made in Taiwan! ua-cam.com/video/bifOI4MbHVU/v-deo.htmlsi=pSmcn7D7hxupf-rD
Has to be close to 1/3 of the country being under 18 in the USA. I bet 1/4- 1/3 of the country can’t even vote cause age and is also milkin out a boob.
China cannot invade itself. What is Taiwan's official name? Taiwan's official name is "Republic of China" . Read the Republic of China 's (Taiwan) own constitution. The Republic of China's (Taiwan) own constitution states that Taiwan is a part of China. Not only does Taiwan's own constitution state that Taiwan is a part of China it also calls for the Reunification with Mainland China. Plus under Taiwan's own constitution secessionism is illegal. As a matter of fact up until the late 1980s if you called for Independence of Taiwan from China you would be arrested for sedition and treason in Taiwan. Taiwanese passports, birth certificates, Banks, official money, airlines, and all cabinet Ministrers have the word China in their names or the word China written on them. Even Taiwan's military is named after China. Taiwan's military is named Republic of China Armed forces. The government of Taiwan used to represent the whole of China in the UN security council up until 1972. For decades they claimed to be the legitimate government of the whole of China. There has never been a debate in whether Taiwan is a part of China. Both the government of Republic of China and the People's Republic of China claimed to be the legitimate governments of China. The debate was always on who is the legitimate government of China. Was it the government in the Republic of China thst only had the support of 23. 4 million Chinese governing from Taipei. Or was the government of the People's Republic of China which has the support of 1.4 Billion Chinese governing from Beijing. Some countries, only 9 now, recognize the Republic of China (Taiwan) as the legitimate government of China. Other countries including the United States and about 189 other countries recognized the People's Republic of China as the legitimate government of the whole of China. This has always been the debate. No one ever recognized Taiwan as an independent country. Not even Taiwan itself. Up until 1991 Taiwan was building up its armed forces to invade Mainland China. For decades before that they used to carry out raids and air strikes on Mainland China with the goal of getting a foothold on Mainland China and then eventually to retake whole Mainland China. They also used to carry out an insurgency into Mainland China from the jungles of Myanmar until the PLA and the Burmese military defeated them and run them out of there. The Republic of China was founded in Mainland China. The founder of the Republic of China in Taiwan greatest dream was the reunification of CHINA. Before he died his last wish was to have his body sent to the Mainland to be burried there near his ancestors. Mainland China does not have to invade Taiwan. The Republic of China and the People's Republic of China are both a part of China and belong to the Chinese people all 1.5 Billion of them and it is the overwhelming will of the Chinese people that they both should reunite. How that reunification will take place. It's up to them. But if anyone tries to break China apart it will be the biggest mistake they will have ever made in their entire history. It's not going to end up well for them or their people in their home country There is only a small minority of people in the Republic of China (Taiwan) who don't want to break away China. They are mainly of Japanese decent. A legacy left from Japanese colonialism. They are about 2.3 million of them If there are people in the Republic of China who don't want to be a part of China, they are free to pack up all their things and leave China. They can go to Japan and become Japanese if they want so they can live under American hegemony as American tributary vassal state like if that is what they want so much Taiwan is undefendable. Taiwan imports almost 60% of its food to feed its people from abroad. 27% of that food comes directly from the Mainland Taiwan imports almost 99% of its energy. Even the Uranium used to power their nuclear reactors comes from abroad. The PLA does not have to invade Taiwan. All they have to do is do a blockade of the Island of Taiwan All the PLA has to do is launch a blockade of Taiwan and in 2 to 3 weeks Taiwan will have a total energy blackout. All it's industries, factories, cities, homes, vehicles will run out of power and grind to a halt. Their economy will be completely destroyed. In 2 to 3 months maximum they will face famine and starvation. They don't have any natural resources or raw materials. If you think the US can break a PLA blockade of Taiwan remember this The US navy wasn't even able to break a Houthi blockade of Israel in the red sea for 11 months. As a result 80% of all the shipping that used to go to Israel's largest port has ceased. The only thing thst has saved Israel is that the Despicable Egyptian authorities have allowed Israel to use their 3 ports in the Mediterranean Sea which is out of reach of the Houthis. The Houthis don't even have a navy or an Air force. All they have used are old anti ship missiles and $10 000 to $20 000 drones. That alone has been able to chase away multi Billion dollar US warships armed with $1.4 million to $4 million missiles out to sea. As a result the US navy and an entire flotilla of its tributary vassal states couldn't break the Houthis blockade of Israel in the red sea for 11 months. Yet people in the United States still think the US navy could break a PLA blockade of Taiwan. China could literally block out the sun over Taiwanese ports, airports and beaches with drones, missiles and artillery shells. China could rain artillery in any part of Taiwan 24/7 over 365 days a year from its coastal regions. They could mine all of Taiwans coast and use unmanned drones armed with explosives to sink any ship that tries to goes anywhere near Taiwan. The only way the US could defeat China in a war against Taiwan is by invading Mainland China and occupying the Mainland. Good luck with that one Moreover if the US attacks the Chinese Mainland the Chinese have the ability and the weapons to strike deep and hard into the United States against all American centers industrial, economic, population centers, military, air, naval army bases and political centers power in as little as 17 to 18 minutes. The United States has no defenses against Chinese missiles China industrial capacity is the largest in the world. Chinas industrial capacity is larger than the next 9 countries combined. China manufacturers 200x more shipping tonnage a year than the United States. China manufactures 12x more steel than the United States. China graduates 7x more Stems than the United States. China's population is 4x larger than the United States. If China goes to war it will mobilize its entire industrial capacity into full scale production. They will out manufacture the United States in all sorts of weapons systems big and small into oblivion They will mobilize tens of millions and tens of millions of men into the PLA.. Plus China will have Russia's support in natural resources, raw materials, additional military industrial manufacturing capacity, energy, food. The United States does not have the industrial capacity to go head to head with China in the long term... It does not have the willing population to be mobilized for a a war of thst scale. The United States is $35 Trillion in debt. You people need to stop dreaming of fighting China over Taiwan. Your politicians and experts mouths are writting cheques your country and your people can't cash.
@@user-im6fy4qp6m No stupid. Not even the UNITED STATES recognizes Taiwan as a country. Go look up three the communiques between China and the United States in the 1980s. Illegally occupied? No, stupid, says the little province that's called East China that lost the ENTIRE mainland to Mao. COPE and SEETHE harder please.
Personally, I believe that Taiwan has intentionally not been recognized as a country for a completely different reason to what is ever discussed. If Taiwan were to declare themselves as a country, then the open waters currently in the Taiwan Strait would cease. In otherwards the Exclusive Economic Zones of both the PRC and Taiwan would overlap thus eliminating any open waters. This would create issues for Japan, US, South Korea and any other countries that navigate through this region. There are no internationally recognised treaties, policies or UN resolutions that state that Taiwan is part of China. Also, historically, China has had minimal control over the island of Taiwan, I will explain further below. Firstly, whether Taiwan is or is not legally recognized as a state does not automatically hand sovereignty of the island to the PRC. Now some facts about Taiwan: 1: The island now known as Taiwan was inhabited and ruled by the aborigines for approximately 30,000 years. 2: When the Dutch arrived in 1626 most of the population of Formosa were the Yuanzhumin or Gaoshan people (who have no DNA link back to China) 3: The Qing had minimal control of Taiwan in fact the Qing only managed to rule less than 20% of the island while the aborigines ruled and controlled over 80% of the island. The Qing created a border in 1750 with rocks which was called the Tu Niu Red Line. The Japanese were the first country to colonise Formosa and create roads and infrastructure.. 4: Due to the lack of control, the Qing did not declare Formosa a Province of the Qing until 1895 as the Japanese was encroaching on the island. The island was handed to Japan soon after. 5: Over the past 400 years the island has been partially ruled by 5 different governments but it was only the Japanese and ROC who had full control of the entire island. 6: Historically the CCP recognized Formosan independence. In 1936, when the Republic of China (ROC) was China’s government and Taiwan (Formosa) was a Japanese colony, Chairman Mao Zedong offered support to Korea and Formosa if their peoples wished to gain independence from Japan. Mao’s internationalist position suggested that 1) both Korea and Formosa have a right to independence, and 2) this is based on the right to self-determination. Mao did not claim that Taiwan has been an integral part of China. (look up Edgar Snow interview)) 7: The Cairo Declaration 1943 discussed the possibility of handing the island of Taiwan to the ROC. This discussion required a treaty to become official and was never implemented. 8: The PRC constitution was formed in 1949 yet Taiwan was not added to it until 1978. 9: The ROC were granted a caretaker role of Formosa after WW2 but when the ROC escaped to the island it still legally belonged to Japan. 10: When Japan relinquished its sovereignty of Taiwan with The Treaty of San Francisco after the ROC invaded the Japanese island, China was not even invited. The treaty was signed by 49 nations but both the ROC and CCP were NOT present. 11: The One China Policy, Un Resolution 2758 or the Treaty of San Francisco do not declare that Taiwan is a province of China. There are no internationally recognized treaties, policies or UN resolutions that state that Taiwan is part of China. The only legal way that Taiwan can amalgamate with China is if they agree to a treaty ceding their sovereignty. Whether Taiwan is considered a country or not does not automatically grant China with sovereignty of the region.
Taiwanese here,love your take on the cross strait tension.Curious about your take on various Taiwan special units(sf,101 amphibious recon,assc)(npasog)? Some say they are very incompetent some say are actually pretty good. Since you served in 1sfg you probably trained with them previously, wondering your take on them?thanks!
@@landenjones9374 i mean im just curious what this absolute chad SF Guy honestly thinks abt the situation especially with them influencing US for its policy on a massive scale
I'm an American with free healthcare lol but I know what ur saying bro its just my state not Federal of course. Anyway much love fellow patriot wish u the absolute best in all avenues
Everyone says Afghanistan is easy to conquer until Afghanistan shows the world why it's called the "Graveyard of Empires". Come on, what's the matter chap...why do I see Taliban in Afghanistan with American equipment? Aren't you guys going to remove the Taliban from Afghanistan?
Taiwan has the advantage of intensity, all that equipment is consolidated onto one island, while china has an entire nation to defend from AUKS when the fighting kicks off.
Their best chance of sucess was last year. But it IS an inevitability. China WILL crumble if they don't secure their spot as a true superpower, and they know stealing IP isn't enough to continue to be a major player in power projection or even stability as a nation. Taiwan provides the infrastructure and strategic location they NEED to secure their future. Even if it means a massive setback in the present as a cost to secure it. I'm making this comment before watching the full video. Will update to see if this does align with what is said in the vid.
VFT merch is fully back in stock with all sizes, shop at the link below:
valhallavft.myshopify.com
That VFT shirt is looking sharp 🔥
Nate p s. Looks like u got shadow banned again for mentioning certain figures. I didn't even get the notification and I'm one ur biggest fans 🔥💪💪💯
Received my shirt and hat. Great quality material and feels great on. Ordered more for gifts. ❤
Taiwanese here:
Things to think about
1. 87% of Taiwanese under 18 year old are Near sighted
2. Xi has to promise to take Taiwan to justify his reign
3. Chinese economy is in bad shape due to COVID
4. Chinese demographics is heavily crippled by one child policy
isnt it the same in taiwan?
As a Taiwanese, I am really surprised that you have a good understanding of Taiwan's political and social reality and historical development.
Thank you for sharing the information to others.
A lot of things are happening in Taiwan right now, but we are managing to find our way out.
I’ll be sure to have my pager notify me.
lol 😂
Or as of last night hand held radios
😆
@@crazychase98 I heard those radios are now handless.
I’m admittedly very biased on this, being ethnically Han and an immigrant from Taiwan (technically first, but I identify as second-gen as I grew up in America from infancy). Still, Taiwan is a steadfast ally and a shining example of liberalism and democracy in Asia. It’s solidly pro-American and maintains strong ties with Japan, another close American ally that has openly committed to Taiwan's defense. Strategically, Taiwan is crucial in the first island chain and critical in preventing the PRC from establishing a dominant presence in the Pacific. I think it would be a terrible mistake to allow Taiwan to fight alone, as it would doubtlessly lose against the PRC without allies. It would also significantly degrade our reputation with our allies and send the wrong message that we are unreliable. That will permit the PRC to gain a considerably stronger position.
Only about 4% of Taiwanese identify as the same Chinese as those on the mainland. About 20% see themselves as RoC Chinese-mainly older KMT voters who are becoming increasingly marginalized. Around 25% view themselves solely as Taiwanese, with most of us Zoomers backing the DPP. The rest have a nuanced identity, blending RoC and Taiwanese affiliations.
Every man in Taiwan must also complete two years of military service between the ages of 20 and 22. The country has ramped up its investment in drone technology after closely observing its impact in the Ukraine war.
Mainland Chinese hold mixed views on Taiwanese people. I get countless death and SA threats on Twitter, and Wumao Brigades constantly harass and try to silence people. The more “well-meaning” mainlanders just think we’re brainwashed and act in a patronizingly condescending manner over it. That and think we try to act "white," their words not mine.
🙏
Honestly the only channel I can watch without getting a headache love the vids bro
Thanks brotha appreciate it 🫡
When I was with DIA it was basically a daily occurrence that we expected China to move on Taiwan. It’s only a matter of time before they do, it’s just painstakingly annoying and anxiety inducing to predict when
as a person living in taiwan, I would say the portion that supports reunification with china is way below 25% (they still exists in a high profile) and both major parties are pretty much against it, just differs on how they'll do it. It's already a witch hunt in taiwan, where you're done for if someone claims you're a CCP sympathizer.
the problem of taiwan is that the public support to a potential war is low, and it's the top priority that the MoD currently trying to solve. Every male is conscripted into the military once they're old enough, and most of them have a negative impression about it. to be honest, people here DON'T RESPECT THE MILITARY. they make fun of them all the time, and people with proper education refuces to serve the long term.
we can talk about how much we want to defend our freedom on the internet, but when it takes your time and your money to help the nation doing so, how many of them will actually do? When you asked about whether did they serve in the military, they either did and hated it, or being proud of escaping from it successfully. They'd even rather buy scamming online course which sells first ait kit in the name of "defending taiwan from china", while the kit itself is made in and inported from china itself.
When a war approaches, would people stay and be ready for mobilization, risk being bombed in a drone factory, or flee before the first shot fired?
it's people that wins the war. lack of gas and oil? need ammunition? want better weapon? these might be possibly arranged somehow just like in Ukraine. but if the people have a wrong knowledge of the war and refuces to fight for it, it's over. The good thing is that they're working on it finally.
Honey, get your ass up...
Fr
You guys are the best lol
Thank you for providing a comprehensive update on Taiwan-China situation. I really appreciate it brother.
if china invades Taiwan I might have to step in
😂😂😂
Clark Kent? Is that you?
@@SipmaRust china better watch out
I naively didn't realize until recently how connected to geopolitics Green Berets may or may not be. You've proven yourself to be knowledgable on such topics. I am curious though was this a direct result of your work while active duty or just personal curiosity?
1-1 SFG is very involved in this, more than any other military unit. So primarily from work.
@@ValhallaVFT Thank you for the response, I appreciate the videos
There was a Article released couple days ago about the Seals Training in Virginia Focused on China Taiwan Conflict
They been training for that the past year
@@naturallytoasty556long than that
Getting my degree focused on Micro and Nano Engineering so maybe after we lose Taiwan, the semi-conductor industry will pay me buku bucks
Hopefully. Gotta survive the grid down scenario for about a year though.
Hong Kong was a British territory. Nothing to do with USA. It was given back to Chinese by Britain.
Brother I learned so much from this. Shows how much I didn’t know. Thanks for this info and what you do.
🫡
10 minutes ! Some of the benefits of sitting at home with Covid. Thanks to Trudeau, Canada is pretty much a Chinese colony. Great video and, as usual, very informative. Nate for POTUS.
Great breakdown mate. First class👍 It's great to see a Veteran who is so well-versed in history and geo-politics, instead of talking out their arses as too many do. It will be war or collapse (China included). Personally I lean more towards the latter, however am open to being wrong. Great shit Brother. Love from Australia👊
Could you do the same video with the other 2 major conflicts going on now as well? People really don’t know where to look and what to look for when it comes to events around the world potentially effecting America. Love the channel brother, from one vet to another!
Yo Nate, I heard you say in the 'Ones Ready' podcast interview that you wonder why people are interested in your videos or watch them. Personally, I was enlisted at the same time you were and have strong ties to the Army. Also, it's because I have always been interested in Marine Raiders, being a Marine myself. I wondered how the different groups compared to the Marine Raiders and MARSOC, and have found the Green Berets to be similar, while still unique. Your input on almost every topic is also therefore unique and interesting. Thanks, Nate.
Excellent quick synopsis. Scary times for sure. Very much looking foward to your next video on Physical and Tactical fitness. Always outstanding content, Thanks Brother
! Stay Hard. 🙏🇺🇸
Frankly, the Taiwan controversy was only a continuation of the Chinese Civil War (1946-1950). Most democracies sympathize with Taiwan simply out of values. I think if the U.S. military forces in the Asia-Pacific region are not directly involved in the war in Taiwan. Taiwan will be completely occupied by the PLA within a week. And the thinking of most Taiwanese is extremely naïve. They know almost nothing about military affairs. Because Taiwanese army is not at all an equal in magnitude opponent of the PLA. Taiwan is not Ukraine. Taiwan is an island. If the PLA begins to attack Taiwan, it will definitely set up a no-fly zone and a no-voyage zone. And dispatch all naval and air forces to guard the perimeter. This means that U.S and Japanese transport aircraft and transport ships cannot come close to the island. It is impossible to give Taiwan more weapons and equipment. And the area of Taiwan is less than 5% of Ukraine. And Taiwan does not have strategic depth. The war is also unlikely to drag on like Ukraine. China will only fight a quick victory. If the U.S military in the Asia-Pacific is involved War in Taiwan. Then all U.S military bases in Japan and South Korea, as well as in Southeast Asia, will be devastated. However, if Washington escalates further, the world will be on the brink of all-out nuclear war. Washington's actions in the light of the war in Ukraine. I do not think that the U.S military will be directly involved in the war in Taiwan. Because it's not sane and not cost-effective.🧐🧐🧐
Even with the gap between Russian and Ukrainian navy and air force, a no fly zone wasn’t set up, needless to mention the devastation of black sea fleet. Please use intelligence not imagination.
@@user_thelongwayaround Please look at the map carefully. Ukraine is a vast country, and it is completely impossible to establish a no-fly zone. Ukrainian area is even larger than France. It is not realistic to establish a no-fly zone over such a large country. No matter how strong the Russia Air Force is, it cannot be done. In addition, Ukraine is connected by land to Romania、Slovakia and Poland. These countries have a complete railway network with Ukraine. In fact, most of the military aid that Ukraine has received since the start of the war has been borne by these rail transports. Taiwan is an island, I state again. And its area is less than 5% of Ukraine. Moreover, the Taiwan Strait is not the Black Sea. The Black Sea is more like an inland sea surrounded by land. The Taiwan Strait and the Bashi Strait are open waters. China does not have any naval garrisons around the strait. Taiwan's navy and their special operations forces are unlikely to endanger Kainan Island, the base of the South China Sea Fleet. Because they are far apart. This no-fly zone and no-voyage zone will be established 20 nautical miles around the island of Taiwan. In this way, it does not seem to be very large, and it will not affect international shipping at all. No one would venture a merchant ship into a war zone.🤔🤔🤔🤔
@@user_thelongwayaround My extrapolations is based on reality and geography as well as geopolitics. It's not like you, based on smattering of knowledge imagination. Of course, I met a lot of these young people in Taiwan during my exchange at Tamkang University.
@@nirvana3921 You mentioned establishing an NVZ 20 NMs around the shoreline. Glad of you being so specific. The 20 NMs, which is around 40 km, is within range of unguided rockets. The wide range of military weapons for Taiwan to choose to confront the NVZ or NFZ is not the top concern for you now. Imagine China committed to establishing a NFZ or NVZ. What would be the context? Denying specific goods to be transported or indiscriminately denying all transportation? For the former scenario, how are you going to enforce? Boarding all ships passing through the strait and inspecting all the containers? Ridiculous. For the latter scenario, what would you do if one violates your orders? Are you going to force it into dysfunction? What would you do if a military vessel passes through, since many countries hold the stance of free navigation on international waters in this region. Regardless of what scenario you opted for, insurance for navigation will certainly spike as soon as China disclose the plan, which pumps up the price of shipments. Even worse, shipment might not be covered by insurance. This would hinder nearby countries,including China itself from accessing international goods, or at least hikes up the cost for trade. The real problem of only enforcing a NVZ or NFZ without an invasion to be a coercive method is that things could rapidly get out of hand, which fails the initial objective. I am still not going into the specifics of your assumptions that China is going to completely occupy the island in 7 days. Good talk though.
@@user_thelongwayaround You don't seem to understand the meaning of no-fly zones and no-voyage zones at all. In view of the war in the Gulf1991. The U.S. military blockaded the entire Persian Gulf in 1991. 20 nautical miles is equivalent to one-third the distance of the Taiwan Strait. Merchant ships can sail along the Chinese mainland side of the sea. Their aim is to make it impossible for all planes and ships to dock on the island of Taiwan. If there are violators. It can also be sunk or shot down. Because this is a war zone. Forewarned. According to the information, not only weapons and equipment. Taiwan's natural gas reserves can only last for a week. Oil only lasts for about a month. Such a blockade would be deadly.🤔🤔🤔
I think there’s a serious misunderstanding of Taiwan. Only 3-5% of the population are pro China for economic reasons.
The majority of people voted for status quo, because it’s the only option the U.S. allows to vote for, since the USA opposes Taiwan’s independence aka one sided ending the civil war and getting Taiwan on it’s own way.
12% don’t care about the United States China policy and are willing to fight for a Declaration of Independence for Taiwan.
I personally think the APAC region cannot count on the United States of America for national security.
Taiwan is the legitimate government of all China
Great Analysis. Many nuanced points that I had not heard before. On par and better stated than Peter Zeihan. I served a bit with the 19th SFG a long time ago; its fantastic to get your insights into the modern special ops world. Lots more fun that watching Hollywood's drivel. Keep it up, you are still serving the USA proudly and making a difference.
Thanks brotha 🫡
Thanks for restocking the store!
G'day Nate, thanks for a great geopolitical and military observation of this. 100% agree. Nothing is certain, but good to have some intel.
Us Japanese will definitely get involved. My biggest concern is the recruitment crisis as you mentioned in other videos. The SDF is facing the same problem and the situation seems hopeless. But I bet we are going to send help over Taiwan. We have many things in common and consider the nation as brother. I wouldn’t like to get aggressive here but China will meet a bad consequence if it dares to invade our peer. Thanks for your insight on this matter. Love and respect from Japan🇯🇵🇺🇸
Question...why not move the the other Battalions of 1st SFG to Hawaii so that they are closer to Asia and colocated with 25th ID and the Army Jungle Warfare Training Center?
Because Schofield isn't that big lol. That's why they just come to train here and leave
Why not Japan?
We don't have a democracy in this country either. We have an oligarchy - which is rule by the rich. As an ordinary individual you voice (vote) does not matter. And it never did.
Thank you for covering this. Most people are focused on Russia-Ukraine which is understandable but the situation in the Pacific is not getting the attention it deserves.
Great analysis. As a Filipino, I'd also like to mention and ask you and other Han/Hoklo Taiwanese about my cousins, the indigenous peoples of Taiwan, and their thoughts and feelings of the situtation. They occupy the Eastern highlands of Taiwan, and usually lean more towards the KMT which is more pro-status quo rather than the ethnic Han and Hoklo who lean more towards the DPP which is more sympathetic towards Taiwanese independence. I wonder how they feel about the situation.
A lot of people focus on the Taiwan part, but no one seems to talk about the Philippines. The US has a treaty to come to their aid unlike Taiwan. Do you by any chase know what would happen if the frequent skirmishes that their coast guards get into goes bad and the Philippines calls on that mutual defense treaty. This would be a cool video idea.
I’m an Aussie I can tell u I think they will unless trump gets in
America and her allies are a different beast with Trump at the helm
As much as I dislike trump, he at least tries to not let America appear weak (which is kind of important considering the fact that they’re the world’s babysitter)
2025: It is generally agreed that China is unlikely to be fully prepared for an invasion by 2025. While China’s military buildup is rapid, many analysts believe that they would not have the level of logistical support and combat readiness needed for a successful large-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan within the next 1-2 years.
2026-2028: This period is often cited as a potential window for military action, with 2027 being a significant year for the People’s Liberation Army. In 2027, China will mark the centennial of the founding of the PLA (People’s Liberation Army), and there has been speculation that Xi Jinping may want to achieve significant military objectives, including the reunification of Taiwan, by then. By 2027, China is likely to have further developed its amphibious warfare capabilities, carrier strike groups, and improved air and missile systems, making an invasion more feasible from a purely military perspective. So if everything goes right for China I put my money on 2027.
Beyond 2028: I believe if China decides to delay beyond 2028, it would be due to political or heavy international factors, including economic stability, domestic unrest or relations with the U.S. and its allies. A longer timeline would also allow China to further modernize its forces and ensure greater confidence in a successful military campaign.
2027 or 2028 is often cited and it makes sense too, if they can get Harris into the White House.
Imagine Harris being in charge and no election being held due to the US having to engage in a major war. That would doom the US, too
Thanks for your insight mate. Really interesting video.
🫡
man I hope the situation changes soon, I'mma be in the Marine corps in a little over a year here
What mos?
they are gonna haze the dogshit out of you kid, as soon as they find out ur YT name is "operator"
You’re a great guy man keep this up 👍🏼
🫡
ANOTHER BANGER VIDEO
thanks and i watch all of your videos entirely
Great analysis
As a young Asian American, I always seek out vets for information. These are the sources I trust especially when it comes to scenarios as these. While America might seem it is burdened to deal with these situations...it is actually us young Asian Americans that have the burden.
What are u talking about lmao wtf? Are you Asian or American? Also lots and lots of Americans who have Asian heritage don't have anything to do wit Taiwan or China, they have no relatives in either place and aren't from either place. We are Americans, ppl have all sorts of ancestors. Some of us Americans are of Asian ethnicities but doesn't mean Asian American its just American. Also I know its hot right now to be the biggest victim, ppl chase that title and want it badly, but ur just not man. If you are American and not another Chinese bot I'd be surprised. Its a strange way to communicate....it's like "its not Americas burden its only "Asian Americans" burden. Sounds like more of the same tactics China loves to use. Racial division. Remind ppl of their race over n over r n over and convince ppl to hyperfocus on race and incentivize ppl to tell the world online as loudly as possible that they are a victim because of their race specifically and the sheep won't even fact check they'll just start whining and demanding things online
then go back to asia if you dont see yourself as american.
China 🇨🇳 invaded Taiwan 🇹🇼 in 1949 and its force was crushed on the beaches of the island of Kinmen, which we Americans called Quemoy. Chairman Mao called his buddy, the Chicom Commanding General, and ordered him to not commit suicide.
We’ll find out after November…Also spent service time in the Pacific, a very interesting place and as you said history! 👊🏻🇺🇸
are you from asia? cause im china get into japanties
Nice lol
I lik the 25/25/50 political explanation....very valid point.........What are the odds that Taiwan would simply surrender if the other allies decide not to intervene knowing that China has them so outnumbered? Especially if the current admin gets reelected?
Just in time to see the video while dining
The hurricane damage in North Carolina occurred, and here and there Trump was making a smug noise, “Biden, what is Harris doing in such a difficult time? But, you know, with climate change, things that used to happen only rarely are now happening as a matter of course. But we should keep in mind that it is people like Trump who are making money by ignoring the environment that are causing these disasters. How can you say that we should drill, drill, drill for fossil fuels, oil, and natural gas, which are bad for the environment?
Yeah lets just get rid of our biggest money maker as America, that totally wont destroy the U.S. economics. I see your point but its not nearly as simple as stop drilling and build solar panels, I wish it was.
Many Cargo Ship companies are located on China too. Not only Computer chips, smartphones and many Electronics will be prohibitively expensive but also International Trade will take a big hit if any tomfoolery happen in that region!
having recently broke into the tech sector hearing this breakdown is terrifying
Hi Nate, that’s a very interesting insight on this possible future war, the only thing I disagree is with China having a lack of agricultural resources, yes they only have 30% of arable land but China is huge, and those 30% already make them the number 1 producers of food resources worldwide. So I think they wouldn’t necessarily struggle with food. But I don’t know, war is unpredictable.
Sure, they also have more people than anyone other country in the world, doesn’t matter how much you produce if it’s not enough to feed the populous.
Great content thank you!
Bro I feel like UA-cam is shadow banning you hard this video should be pushed more cuz I promise you the watch time is high
Subscribed👍
Love the history lesson, sounds like everything I learned in college
a lot of detailed points on the military realities but I read the domestic politics differently, China, Iran, Russia are all aligned, countering Russia and Iranian proxies would make it less likely China thinks that way of doing things is a good idea, and I think between the CHiPs Act, shifting manufacturing to Mexico, exploring US shipbuilding in Japan (their shipyards are much more efficient than ours), the Afghanistan pullout, the bird eye view of the current admin has been to counter China
America is not strong enough to deal with a 4 front conflict, so no.
Nate keep up the good work with these geo-political vids. Your perspective on these topics def carries a lot of weight, given the nature of Green Beret work that its not just high-speed/brawn/door-kicking but also involves a lot of diplomacy and problem solving. I am attracted to SF for that reason and training up for 18x. Also can you please confirm that what Kamala Harris said in the debate that there are "no active duty soldiers currently in combat" is hogwash, like ok perhaps not in a peer-to-peer conventional type war but that remark just stank to high heaven of BS.
Great video 🔥💯
China actually has plentiful rare earth minerals and a robust industry to extract them. however, I agree with you on the other resources though.
Hiya Nate, since I live in Okinawa as a Japanese American, and with how hard the Okinawan government is pushing to get rid of US Bases, do you then think China will shift focus from Taiwan to Japan? Because at least Taiwan has a standing army ready to fight versus Japan that is heavily reliant on American defense
Okinawa’s economy is so dependent on the U.S. now that they can’t have us leave. All of the calls for the U.S. to leave are just pandering from Chinese government paid officials and agitators. So no.
@@ValhallaVFT that’s what I thought, the local government is so deep in the CCP’s pocket it’s blatant. Unbelievable really how the Japanese government just lets it by without batting an eye…
So you made it through Iraq and Afghanistan then lose the tip of your finger?
Allied Forces = US and Friends!
Does China have the capabilities to air drop troops on the East coast of Taiwan or would that not be affective? I’m just curious about how much the cliff coasts protect Taiwan.
You should look up picture of our East coast, and Taiwan Central Mountain Range. The mountain basically divided the island into East and West side. Also our grandfathers decided it was easier to blow tunnel through the mountain instead of building road around it lol The mountain is prone to mud slide and raining boulders.
@@ooXChrissieXoo I have looked at the cliffs on google maps and watched a geography video about it. I’m more wondering if any nation has the technology and ability to actually invade a coast like that. I see modern militaries going to the most insane places and it makes me wonder what makes coastal cliffs so impossible to get around.
Not just an if…but how. When is almost impossible to know.
Good thing I went into that in detail then huh
Great analysis. How big of a threat do you think China's area denial anti-ship missiles pose to foreign intervention?
Too early, more likely by 2027. CCP is not prepared based on country economic status, support and awaiting results of US national election. Prefer to strike, if US is drawn into Ukraine conflict with Russia or over Irsael support in conflict with Iran. Divide resources to conquer. Retired strategic and joint operational military planner, MILGRP, and FAO.
God forbid.
Before the video already great vid
We had a chance to help China become non socialist but we chose not to in '49
Not really that would've lead to a war with USSR and who knows where that would go since in 1949 USSR had the bomb as well. I don't think anyone was willing to risk it for China realistically back then.
When you think about historical things like these you gotta be able to take a point of view of the times back then, not knowing all that we know nowadays.
You would have had a much more richer and powerful China that can much more easily challenge America today
Hong Kong is different from Taiwan. Hong Kong legally reverted to Chinese rule in 1997. Hong Kong is also much closer to China than Taiwan. Taiwan, on the other hand, is an island, and has never been ruled by the Communist party.
Yes
aren't all the green berets deployed in taiwan right now too 😳
On watch in commiefornia🤗the western province of china🤫
America doesn't have enough manufacturing to go up against China or Russia Russia is basically showed America can't make enough and don't have enough stock in ammo. I don't like Americas odds. Afghanistan didn't work out to great for us neither did Vietnam and also the Korean war. Our track record doesn't look good
Our? Not our. Also, nice try at trying to confuse random ppl online with ur shit but ur comment accomplishes nothing to anyone who has even a clue about what this videos touching on. Ur not scaring anyone
no China is resource rich,
"first" 🤓
Depending on China's India border relations it possible for India to get involved co belligerent against China.
nope. that's not happening.
we are a kind of partner that will help you avoid war not fight war with you
Oil? They have no oil? Guess who does 🦅🦅🦅
Actually thats why they visiting saudi arabia, to secure oil options for them
@@yohaiagami1327 We get most of our oil from in country and Canada, one of our biggest export is oil
@yohaiagami1327 Do you think the us will allow the Saudis to export their oil to China?
@@jgghfghhfghggghyf7666not in us intrest, and it might can cause some tensions and threat from usa to saudi. But! Saudi need to take care of Saudi. And if they dont have comitment from USA to defend them. They will explore their options, even if its not serious about it but just to show usa they are checking options. So it a politic game which we will see how it will end....
Thaddeus Ridges
Sheridan Lodge
I like how you pointed out the economic downside of China trying to take Taiwan. It is a super big deal, so thanks for pointing that out. Rock on Sir!
Just thought of this scene from Armageddon, American components, Russian components, all made in Taiwan!
ua-cam.com/video/bifOI4MbHVU/v-deo.htmlsi=pSmcn7D7hxupf-rD
Has to be close to 1/3 of the country being under 18 in the USA. I bet 1/4- 1/3 of the country can’t even vote cause age and is also milkin out a boob.
WHAT´S YOUR 2 CENTS ON YA CASI VENEZUELA
Thanks for your awesome assessment from your local 4j communist reeducation center.
Whats the deal with panda bare?
*restore order
Oberbrunner Turnpike
Katherine Mills
Bro id venture to say most people who vote barely care about politics either 😂
Lost all credibility around 21:50 - 10:10
China cannot invade itself.
What is Taiwan's official name?
Taiwan's official name is "Republic of China" .
Read the Republic of China 's (Taiwan) own constitution.
The Republic of China's (Taiwan) own constitution states that Taiwan is a part of China.
Not only does Taiwan's own constitution state that Taiwan is a part of China it also calls for the Reunification with Mainland China.
Plus under Taiwan's own constitution secessionism is illegal.
As a matter of fact up until the late 1980s if you called for Independence of Taiwan from China you would be arrested for sedition and treason in Taiwan.
Taiwanese passports, birth certificates, Banks, official money, airlines, and all cabinet Ministrers have the word China in their names or the word China written on them.
Even Taiwan's military is named after China.
Taiwan's military is named Republic of China Armed forces.
The government of Taiwan used to represent the whole of China in the UN security council up until 1972.
For decades they claimed to be the legitimate government of the whole of China.
There has never been a debate in whether Taiwan is a part of China.
Both the government of Republic of China and the People's Republic of China claimed to be the legitimate governments of China.
The debate was always on who is the legitimate government of China.
Was it the government in the Republic of China thst only had the support of 23. 4 million Chinese governing from Taipei.
Or was the government of the People's Republic of China which has the support of 1.4 Billion Chinese governing from Beijing.
Some countries, only 9 now, recognize the Republic of China (Taiwan) as the legitimate government of China.
Other countries including the United States and about 189 other countries recognized the People's Republic of China as the legitimate government of the whole of China.
This has always been the debate.
No one ever recognized Taiwan as an independent country. Not even Taiwan itself.
Up until 1991 Taiwan was building up its armed forces to invade Mainland China.
For decades before that they used to carry out raids and air strikes on Mainland China with the goal of getting a foothold on Mainland China and then eventually to retake whole Mainland China.
They also used to carry out an insurgency into Mainland China from the jungles of Myanmar until the PLA and the Burmese military defeated them and run them out of there.
The Republic of China was founded in Mainland China.
The founder of the Republic of China in Taiwan greatest dream was the reunification of CHINA.
Before he died his last wish was to have his body sent to the Mainland to be burried there near his ancestors.
Mainland China does not have to invade Taiwan.
The Republic of China and the People's Republic of China are both a part of China and belong to the Chinese people all 1.5 Billion of them
and it is the overwhelming will of the Chinese people that they both should reunite.
How that reunification will take place. It's up to them. But if anyone tries to break China apart it will be the biggest mistake they will have ever made in their entire history. It's not going to end up well for them or their people in their home country
There is only a small minority of people in the Republic of China (Taiwan) who don't want to break away China. They are mainly of Japanese decent. A legacy left from Japanese colonialism.
They are about 2.3 million of them
If there are people in the Republic of China who don't want to be a part of China, they are free to pack up all their things and leave China.
They can go to Japan and become Japanese if they want so they can live under American hegemony as American tributary vassal state like if that is what they want so much
Taiwan is undefendable.
Taiwan imports almost 60% of its food to feed its people from abroad.
27% of that food comes directly from the Mainland
Taiwan imports almost 99% of its energy.
Even the Uranium used to power their nuclear reactors comes from abroad.
The PLA does not have to invade Taiwan.
All they have to do is do a blockade of the Island of Taiwan
All the PLA has to do is launch a blockade of Taiwan and in 2 to 3 weeks Taiwan will have a total energy blackout. All it's industries, factories, cities, homes, vehicles will run out of power and grind to a halt. Their economy will be completely destroyed.
In 2 to 3 months maximum they will face famine and starvation.
They don't have any natural resources or raw materials.
If you think the US can break a PLA blockade of Taiwan remember this
The US navy wasn't even able to break a Houthi blockade of Israel in the red sea for 11 months.
As a result 80% of all the shipping that used to go to Israel's largest port has ceased.
The only thing thst has saved Israel is that the Despicable Egyptian authorities have allowed Israel to use their 3 ports in the Mediterranean Sea which is out of reach of the Houthis.
The Houthis don't even have a navy or an Air force. All they have used are old anti ship missiles and $10 000 to $20 000 drones.
That alone has been able to chase away multi Billion dollar US warships armed with $1.4 million to $4 million missiles out to sea.
As a result the US navy and an entire flotilla of its tributary vassal states couldn't break the Houthis blockade of Israel in the red sea for 11 months.
Yet people in the United States still think the US navy could break a PLA blockade of Taiwan.
China could literally block out the sun over Taiwanese ports, airports and beaches with drones, missiles and artillery shells.
China could rain artillery in any part of Taiwan 24/7 over 365 days a year from its coastal regions.
They could mine all of Taiwans coast and use unmanned drones armed with explosives to sink any ship that tries to goes anywhere near Taiwan.
The only way the US could defeat China in a war against Taiwan is by invading Mainland China and occupying the Mainland.
Good luck with that one
Moreover if the US attacks the Chinese Mainland the Chinese have the ability and the weapons to strike deep and hard
into the United States against all American centers industrial, economic, population centers, military, air, naval army bases and political centers power in as little as 17 to 18 minutes.
The United States has no defenses against Chinese missiles
China industrial capacity is the largest in the world.
Chinas industrial capacity is larger than the next 9 countries combined.
China manufacturers 200x more shipping tonnage a year than the United States.
China manufactures 12x more steel than the United States.
China graduates 7x more Stems than the United States.
China's population is 4x larger than the United States.
If China goes to war it will mobilize its entire industrial capacity into full scale production.
They will out manufacture the United States in all sorts of weapons systems big and small into oblivion
They will mobilize tens of millions and tens of millions of men into the PLA..
Plus China will have Russia's support in natural resources, raw materials, additional military industrial manufacturing capacity, energy, food.
The United States does not have the industrial capacity to go head to head with China in the long term... It does not have the willing population to be mobilized for a a war of thst scale.
The United States is $35 Trillion in debt.
You people need to stop dreaming of fighting China over Taiwan.
Your politicians and experts mouths are writting cheques your country and your people can't cash.
Taiwan is the legitimate government of China. Mainland China is currently illegally occupied by an illegitimate unelected communist force..
Nice Info Xi. Gonna read this in my speech to justify that Communism is the best path for Taiwan.
@@user-im6fy4qp6m No stupid. Not even the UNITED STATES recognizes Taiwan as a country. Go look up three the communiques between China and the United States in the 1980s.
Illegally occupied? No, stupid, says the little province that's called East China that lost the ENTIRE mainland to Mao.
COPE and SEETHE harder please.
Personally, I believe that Taiwan has intentionally not been recognized as a country for a completely different reason to what is ever discussed. If Taiwan were to declare themselves as a country, then the open waters currently in the Taiwan Strait would cease. In otherwards the Exclusive Economic Zones of both the PRC and Taiwan would overlap thus eliminating any open waters. This would create issues for Japan, US, South Korea and any other countries that navigate through this region.
There are no internationally recognised treaties, policies or UN resolutions that state that Taiwan is part of China. Also, historically, China has had minimal control over the island of Taiwan, I will explain further below.
Firstly, whether Taiwan is or is not legally recognized as a state does not automatically hand sovereignty of the island to the PRC.
Now some facts about Taiwan:
1: The island now known as Taiwan was inhabited and ruled by the aborigines for approximately 30,000 years.
2: When the Dutch arrived in 1626 most of the population of Formosa were the Yuanzhumin or Gaoshan people (who have no DNA link back to China)
3: The Qing had minimal control of Taiwan in fact the Qing only managed to rule less than 20% of the island while the aborigines ruled and controlled over 80% of the island. The Qing created a border in 1750 with rocks which was called the Tu Niu Red Line. The Japanese were the first country to colonise Formosa and create roads and infrastructure..
4: Due to the lack of control, the Qing did not declare Formosa a Province of the Qing until 1895 as the Japanese was encroaching on the island. The island was handed to Japan soon after.
5: Over the past 400 years the island has been partially ruled by 5 different governments but it was only the Japanese and ROC who had full control of the entire island.
6: Historically the CCP recognized Formosan independence. In 1936, when the Republic of China (ROC) was China’s government and Taiwan (Formosa) was a Japanese colony, Chairman Mao Zedong offered support to Korea and Formosa if their peoples wished to gain independence from Japan. Mao’s internationalist position suggested that 1) both Korea and Formosa have a right to independence, and 2) this is based on the right to self-determination. Mao did not claim that Taiwan has been an integral part of China. (look up Edgar Snow interview))
7: The Cairo Declaration 1943 discussed the possibility of handing the island of Taiwan to the ROC. This discussion required a treaty to become official and was never implemented.
8: The PRC constitution was formed in 1949 yet Taiwan was not added to it until 1978.
9: The ROC were granted a caretaker role of Formosa after WW2 but when the ROC escaped to the island it still legally belonged to Japan.
10: When Japan relinquished its sovereignty of Taiwan with The Treaty of San Francisco after the ROC invaded the Japanese island, China was not even invited. The treaty was signed by 49 nations but both the ROC and CCP were NOT present.
11: The One China Policy, Un Resolution 2758 or the Treaty of San Francisco do not declare that Taiwan is a province of China. There are no internationally recognized treaties, policies or UN resolutions that state that Taiwan is part of China.
The only legal way that Taiwan can amalgamate with China is if they agree to a treaty ceding their sovereignty. Whether Taiwan is considered a country or not does not automatically grant China with sovereignty of the region.
At this point...I don't care.
Taiwanese here,love your take on the cross strait tension.Curious about your take on various Taiwan special units(sf,101 amphibious recon,assc)(npasog)? Some say they are very incompetent some say are actually pretty good. Since you served in 1sfg you probably trained with them previously, wondering your take on them?thanks!
lets go caught this one early! Valhalla VFT!!!
Your audience cant even find taiwan on the map.
People wouldn't be watching this if that were the case
you sound like an angry communist
Make a vid abt israel
It would probably get taken down cuz of youtubes overlords
@@landenjones9374oy vey
They’d shut it down
@@landenjones9374 i mean im just curious what this absolute chad SF Guy honestly thinks abt the situation especially with them influencing US for its policy on a massive scale
@@mansoorahmed1676 yeah I am too but if he ever put a video like that out he'd most definitely get erased off of youtube
How many countries have the U.S. invaded thus far?
Too many.
Everyone got something to say until USA shows the world why us Americans dont have free healthcare
I'm an American with free healthcare lol but I know what ur saying bro its just my state not Federal of course. Anyway much love fellow patriot wish u the absolute best in all avenues
We have free Health care. Cat loving llegals too..
Wait how the hell you guys get free healthcare? And open season is coming up and they are changing the policies and premiums Again 🤦🏻♂️
Everyone says Afghanistan is easy to conquer until Afghanistan shows the world why it's called the "Graveyard of Empires". Come on, what's the matter chap...why do I see Taliban in Afghanistan with American equipment? Aren't you guys going to remove the Taliban from Afghanistan?
Is 21 too young to be a green beret?
I believe the cut off to join SF is 23
@@8thdayadventist911the cut off is definitely not 23 i’m pretty sure it’s somewhere in your 30’s
20 years old is the minimum age to get an 18X contract, I think.
No. 'SF Baby' 18X contract is a ticket to ride, if you can make it
Taiwan has the advantage of intensity, all that equipment is consolidated onto one island, while china has an entire nation to defend from AUKS when the fighting kicks off.
Their best chance of sucess was last year. But it IS an inevitability. China WILL crumble if they don't secure their spot as a true superpower, and they know stealing IP isn't enough to continue to be a major player in power projection or even stability as a nation. Taiwan provides the infrastructure and strategic location they NEED to secure their future. Even if it means a massive setback in the present as a cost to secure it. I'm making this comment before watching the full video. Will update to see if this does align with what is said in the vid.