Mike, you could add the great Arnold Heim and his expedition through the Middle East (Kuwait to Bahrain, 1924-1926, financed by Londoner Eastern & General Syndicate). He took 60 people with him, passed by and missed out on around 10 known oil seeps and two of the largest fields known today, concluded that it was unlikely to be an oil province and finally drilled water in Bahrain (for which he was highly praised). Only excuse: He wasn't well at the time,.... and he didn't think too highly of local guides. Or take the 1920s well that I showed my geo-group two weeks ago: Drilling was considered because of a sample of bituminuous substance that a farmer had found but didn't keep (it might have been shallow diatomeen coal, I reckon). Instead of using geophys, the town contracted 3 dowsers that all indicated anomalies at exactly the same places ("news travel fast here", as they say in Local Hero). When experts such as Pompecki raised concerns, another 2 local "scientists" with their self-made instruments (one was a radon emanator) were employed and the well was drilled. Needless to say, it encountered Triassic directly under Upper Cretaceous (as had been suggested by Pompecki - no chance of finding anything). The proper geophysicists that were recruited AFTER drilling could only confirm that there is nothing to be found. Another one: What for a long time was the largest onshore oilfield in Europe was discovered in 1944 and earmarked for fast-track appraisal. But already the second well encountered no reservoir at all due to faultcut and further appraisal was postponed. 40 years later, for fun and on 3D we looked for another location in that giant field where the entire reservoir is cut out, without finding one.
Helge, it is, as ever, a great pleasure to hear from you! I think we need to make a video of the anecdotes you recount. Fantastic!. You mention some great case studies for people to research and try and identify the lessons which need to be learned. We need to continue pushing to get all the data 'squirrelled away' in hidden corners in Germany into a public repository so that all can learn and more resources can be identified. There is so much potential for your great nation to maximise economic recovery! I know you have been a great asset in unlocking said resource and support getting the subsurface data more accessible. The TROVE database we built for onshore Germany is a great start butvneeds to be improved - we need some dedicated resource to achieve that. Let's ope someone reading this is inspired! Very best wishes, Mike
A little more difficult, but you can also take into consideration the economics of the exploration, ie the proportion between the cost to explore and develop a well and the economic output. Thanks for your videos
David, every exploration well has the economic test applied. Normally the P90 is an economic failure, the P50 maybe economic, maybe not and the P10 outcome will bankroll the company for the next century! In that last sentence I have revealed my misgivings about probabilistic assessments. I think I need to go and lie down and rethink the whole exploration thing!!
I was taught geology by dick Selley as a young PE, we had to buy his book which was actually very good as was he. I will own up to being peripherally involved with affanga deep as well along with your associate. Can I nominate gnarlyknots-1 in GAB 2003 which failed to reach target horizons as currents were so strong. Almost worse than expected outcome “dry hole” in harsh conditions was finding something as they did in Sea Lion-1 as it’s encouraged people to keep spending. There is also the legend off Soith Island in 1970’s. Enjoyed helge’s input, I worked with him too in Perth for a while. You defo learn more from your mistakes.
Mark many thanks for your comments and suggestions. We will have a lot more targeted research if we decide to do a sequel! Helge is a favourite with our team - and a very experienced and knowledgeable geoscientist.
20/20 hindsight and modern data can ridicule the decisions of history. But we don't want to do that. The vast majority of the world's oil & gas reserves were discovered before 3D seismic, RFT tools, sequence stratigraphy etc etc. Was it all luck? We believe not. It was great geological thinking - but today we have greater understanding of the circumstances. I only wish I had had the chance to wildcat in Saudi, Iran, Iraq, GoM, the north Sea etc etc. It would have been the best time to be an explorer!
I know Sasanof-1 was a dry hole but don't have details on what went wrong. If you have any details Michael, you may want to drop us a line at info@1stsom.com. With thanks in anticipation.
Mike, you could add the great Arnold Heim and his expedition through the Middle East (Kuwait to Bahrain, 1924-1926, financed by Londoner Eastern & General Syndicate). He took 60 people with him, passed by and missed out on around 10 known oil seeps and two of the largest fields known today, concluded that it was unlikely to be an oil province and finally drilled water in Bahrain (for which he was highly praised). Only excuse: He wasn't well at the time,.... and he didn't think too highly of local guides.
Or take the 1920s well that I showed my geo-group two weeks ago: Drilling was considered because of a sample of bituminuous substance that a farmer had found but didn't keep (it might have been shallow diatomeen coal, I reckon). Instead of using geophys, the town contracted 3 dowsers that all indicated anomalies at exactly the same places ("news travel fast here", as they say in Local Hero). When experts such as Pompecki raised concerns, another 2 local "scientists" with their self-made instruments (one was a radon emanator) were employed and the well was drilled. Needless to say, it encountered Triassic directly under Upper Cretaceous (as had been suggested by Pompecki - no chance of finding anything). The proper geophysicists that were recruited AFTER drilling could only confirm that there is nothing to be found.
Another one: What for a long time was the largest onshore oilfield in Europe was discovered in 1944 and earmarked for fast-track appraisal. But already the second well encountered no reservoir at all due to faultcut and further appraisal was postponed. 40 years later, for fun and on 3D we looked for another location in that giant field where the entire reservoir is cut out, without finding one.
Helge, it is, as ever, a great pleasure to hear from you! I think we need to make a video of the anecdotes you recount. Fantastic!. You mention some great case studies for people to research and try and identify the lessons which need to be learned. We need to continue pushing to get all the data 'squirrelled away' in hidden corners in Germany into a public repository so that all can learn and more resources can be identified. There is so much potential for your great nation to maximise economic recovery! I know you have been a great asset in unlocking said resource and support getting the subsurface data more accessible. The TROVE database we built for onshore Germany is a great start butvneeds to be improved - we need some dedicated resource to achieve that. Let's ope someone reading this is inspired! Very best wishes, Mike
A little more difficult, but you can also take into consideration the economics of the exploration, ie the proportion between the cost to explore and develop a well and the economic output. Thanks for your videos
David, every exploration well has the economic test applied. Normally the P90 is an economic failure, the P50 maybe economic, maybe not and the P10 outcome will bankroll the company for the next century! In that last sentence I have revealed my misgivings about probabilistic assessments. I think I need to go and lie down and rethink the whole exploration thing!!
Destin Dome, 70's Gulf of Mexico; Burger, 2010's Alaska are worth considering
If we get a list of ten candidates we may have to make an alternate video. Perhaps we should then ask subscribers to vote!
Gosses Bluff -1 Exploration well in the middle of a known impact crater in Australia in 1965
Volcanics are bad, meteorite impacts - possibly worse. We will add Gosses Bluff-1 to the list the the follow up video. Many thanks.
I was taught geology by dick Selley as a young PE, we had to buy his book which was actually very good as was he. I will own up to being peripherally involved with affanga deep as well along with your associate. Can I nominate gnarlyknots-1 in GAB 2003 which failed to reach target horizons as currents were so strong. Almost worse than expected outcome “dry hole” in harsh conditions was finding something as they did in Sea Lion-1 as it’s encouraged people to keep spending. There is also the legend off Soith Island in 1970’s. Enjoyed helge’s input, I worked with him too in Perth for a while. You defo learn more from your mistakes.
Mark many thanks for your comments and suggestions. We will have a lot more targeted research if we decide to do a sequel! Helge is a favourite with our team - and a very experienced and knowledgeable geoscientist.
the prospect v dry hole analytics is interesting
20/20 hindsight and modern data can ridicule the decisions of history. But we don't want to do that. The vast majority of the world's oil & gas reserves were discovered before 3D seismic, RFT tools, sequence stratigraphy etc etc. Was it all luck? We believe not. It was great geological thinking - but today we have greater understanding of the circumstances. I only wish I had had the chance to wildcat in Saudi, Iran, Iraq, GoM, the north Sea etc etc. It would have been the best time to be an explorer!
None of mine. Oh thank God!
There but for the grace....... We learn from our errors and move on. A geologist who is risk-averse has no value to any company IMHO!
@@TROVE-1stSubsurface Very true!
Sasanof 1 is the worst.
I know Sasanof-1 was a dry hole but don't have details on what went wrong. If you have any details Michael, you may want to drop us a line at info@1stsom.com. With thanks in anticipation.