Electric Vehicle Price Projections: What Nobody Tells You!

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  • Опубліковано 25 гру 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 8

  • @rohitsaroha2845
    @rohitsaroha2845 Місяць тому +1

    Very informative in limited time

  • @nas4apps
    @nas4apps Місяць тому +1

    I drive a compact European Stellantis Opel Corsa EV. Charge? On regular (240V) mains at 2kW. The 50kWh battery charges over night or, at my employer at up to 11 kWh while parking. Zero investment - charger came with the car. The Netherlands: charging ifrastructure is simple: at employers, curb side, fast chargers at or next to all main fuel stations, in parking garages. And, once full, a parking charge commences so people depart from the curb after charging. There is always enough charging opportunity - so there is actually competition. Today, Tesla in The Netherlands, has a similar price as my home at high metering (I have a two tariff meter). My small and efficient car - makes life easy. The major theme: as battery prices still fall, EVs become more affordable and therefore depreciation is faster than usual. So: I lease, full service lease. Opel offers excellent service. Success with your channel! UA-cam offered me - miss some 'breaking news'. That would make the channel a bit more juicy, some pure 'news' like today's price of lithium compared to last year (solid data) or new car announcements with LFP batteries (like Ford Mustang Mach e, certain models) or benefits of LFT batteries (last very very long as iron is very stable, always can (should) charge to 100%, but how much heavier are they? in %, to they cost more volume?). Really, EV is the way forward!

    • @shayan_ev
      @shayan_ev  Місяць тому

      Very happy to hear about charging infrastructure in Netherland.
      North America needs way more chargers because of the distances . Unfortunately the LFP batteries is reducing the range for less degradation and this is a deal breaker for me.

  • @MattDavoudi
    @MattDavoudi Місяць тому +1

    nice video, keep it up!

  • @st-ex8506
    @st-ex8506 Місяць тому +2

    Please tell us WHICH material is, or will ever be in shortage!
    - Lithium? No way. Now that geologists have actively started looking for the stuff, huge deposits of lithium are being discovered the world over on a nearly monthly basis, and the price of lithium is on a long-term downward trajectory.
    - Nickel? Elon Musk said in 2019, that nickel would be the tightest of all resources for the energy transition. But that was before the advent of nickel-free LFP batteries. Nickel is no constraint anymore (which is too bad for my investment in nickel mining!).
    - Cobalt? Yes, a problematic material indeed. But it is being kicked out of the chemistries of the greater part of the battery market. Oh? BTW, no cobalt mined in problematic conditions in the Congo (child labor) EVER finds its way into EV batteries. That is pure disinformation (not the child labor issue which is unfortunately real, but the fact that it goes into EV batteries).
    - So-called "rare earth" metals? Firstly, let's state that none of them is used in any EV battery chemistry... none! It is used to manufacture the permanent magnets of some, but not all of the EV motors. However, permanent magnets using no such material are being developed, and Tesla, for example, has announced that their next generation of motors would contain no such element.
    - Copper? Presently known copper reserves are around 5 times greater than all the copper needed for a complete worldwide energy transition. So, no long-term resource issue. But those deposits must be mined, and the copper refined. As setting up a new mine takes many years, that production capacity might indeed be stressed, for a few years in the late 20s and early 30s, which will indeed push the price of copper up. But copper can be replaced by aluminium in most (although not all) of its EV applications, should the price of copper become a constraint.
    Conclusion: Due to
    a) progress in battery and other EV-related technologies,
    b) progress in manufacturing technologies,
    c) progress in material extraction and refining technologies, leading to lower material prices,
    d) growing economies of scale,
    EV prices will continue going down and down for at least the coming decade.
    Price parity with comparable ICE vehicle is already a fact in China, and is "around he corner" in North America and Europe. When EVS will be not only much cheaper to operate, but also 10%, 20% cheaper to purchase than comparable ICE cars, the production of the latter will not gradually but brutally collapse, because the manufacturing cost curve of ICE vehicles is going in the other direction, driven by growing DIS-economies of scale!

  • @st-ex8506
    @st-ex8506 Місяць тому +1

    Batteries are NOT "designed to last from 8 to 15 years", as you said!
    NMC batteries last in excess of 1'800 full charging cycles to degrade to 80% remaining charge capacity... so, still perfectly usable, at least for a commuter car!
    1'800 full-charging cycles on a car with, say, 300 miles of range, means nearly 500'000 miles (no arithmetic mistake here, just accounted for the progressive degradation), or 38 years of driving for the average American driver.
    LFP batteries have around 3 times that lifetime!
    Modern batteries will therefore outlast the life of most cars, and never need changing... save for the occasional one with a manufacturing defect... probably covered by warranty!
    It is so true that some brands (MG for example) start offering lifetime (that of the car, not the driver), transferrable battery warranties.

    • @shayan_ev
      @shayan_ev  Місяць тому

      Yes they might last longer but the safety target is around 70% state of health after 150 kmiles which is around 10 years

    • @st-ex8506
      @st-ex8506 Місяць тому

      @ what « safety target » are you talking about? The warranty conditions?
      Warranty is one thing, real lifetime is another. Batteries, at least those of Tesla cars, easily last in excess of 500’000 miles. That’s 35+ years of driving for the average US driver.