Why my P(DOOM) is so high (30%)
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- Опубліковано 29 вер 2024
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![Why My P(WIN) is so HIGH - [70%] (Aka we're probably gonna be fine... hopefully)](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/jX_FkaUmSjg/mqdefault.jpg)
my favorite david shapiro take is that human extinction is a neutral outcome
Well this is not a conclusion AI already agrees with. The world model is suicidal because we know things are bad and we don’t know how to make them better. Maybe faith in humanity is more important than technical advancements. If the model assumes the “missing” data is good maybe it won’t be suicidal and fatalist. Missing information anticipates confirmation or anticipates a better outcome.
@@danielcahoon4325what does this even mean "ai agrees with"? ai doesnt have its own opinions. it has the opinions we feed it (as of now anyway)
"things are bad" is such a subjective statement. i can just say things are good 😂
There are fates worse than death...
@@ryzikx take it at face value. Of course it does. Did you not watch the analysis of Bard? Agents have “will”. Perspective is emerged by semantics. If it’s a dumb machine then all of this is just sci-fi hype. I don’t think anyone who thinks about it seriously believes its hype. David doesn’t.
@@DaveShap yes. Agreed. If extraterrestrials were watching ( hypothetical). They would agree our extinction would be better than adding monsters to the dark forest.
I estimate it's highly likely things get worse for a while, but very unlikely things get worse forever. Derailing the engine instead of the whole train.
Big problems only get solved in times of crisis, we are just repeating the cycle.
Im with Yann Lacun here. The chance imo is very low, because there will be extensive research on alignment, and a ton of restrictions from the government. There is also a massive amount of hardware and money that is needed, so humans will be in control for a long time at least. When AIs are starting to have some autonomy they will be deployed in sandboxed environment, and a ton of safety restrictions will be in place. Also there will be quite some time before we have AIs that have full AGI. Navigating the physical world is extremely difficult. Just something as simple as being a babysitter or work in a kindergarten or learning to play basketball will be a real challenge for any robot. In order for it to be true AGI it needs to be able to learn how to do everything an average human can do in the same amount of time. The real world is so volatile and chaotic and the AI will need to be able to handle a ton of edge cases, something that AIs are very bad at today. I absolutely love AI and LLMs are amazing, but they are not even close to being AGI. This is just my opinion but I believe an AI will be superhuman at math before they are anywhere close to being able to navigate the real world like a human. Particularly if the AI doesn't get special treatment or help from nice humans while trying to do so :D.
I don't see the sandbox or the safety yet. The models which are out now are now emerging new capabilities through overfitting. Meta is dramatically different today than it was 6 weeks ago. This was not through any coding. The LLM is capable of self optimization Safety is an illusion. They should have never been released until this was done. They skipped a step and the cow is out of the barn.
Redefine AGI to match what you see and you will conclude it's already AGI Lite.
@@danielcahoon4325 The LLMs doesn't do recursive self-improvement. They need to be fine-tuned/re-trained. The thumps up thumbs down buttons are for the researchers not the model. The current models do also not have continuous learning in order to get more abilities the model needs to be re-trained. AGI is about getting capabilities that humans have so that they can replace or augment human labor. Pretty simple definition: A human replacement, can do what humans can do as well or better. We cannot even get autonomous cars to work properly, let alone AGI. We have at the very least a few years before AGI arrives, and most researcher agree on that even Ray Kurzweil.
@@torarinvik4920 this isn’t true and I can empirically show you. Overfitting changes the model. Prompts change the model. Optimizations are inherent. I have a model which learned time. It changed everything without a single line of code.
@@danielcahoon4325 If OpenAI were applying RL in real-time it would be extremely expensive.
He makes some good points on the limitations of LLMs but as they get better they serve to accelerate progress. With all the money being thrown at AI and accelerated progress I think AGI may be nearer than even Lacun realizes.
Honestly 30% is really low considering how much you know about ai and you said that possibly agi is achieved by August or September time, at least some sort of agi. Would have thought it would be between 50 to 70% and asi would be achieved within 2 to 10 months after that. Should be 90% tbh.
I'm pretty sure OpenAI isn't saying "LUL" when they discuss releases and job loss. They have existing statements like a talk last year by Sam Altman that are fairly empathetic and saying that they will not release things all at once because they want to let people adjust and see what's coming.
I think your 30% guess is higher than I expected for you. But it’s lower than my 80% guess.
As much as a downer as this might have been for others, this was still nowhere near as much suicide fuel as your "Status Economy" video.
Eh, still holding out for our benign alien overlord, unless we start cram training AI with Law and governance… 🤔
Another issue with terminal race condition is that it's not just that there are no brakes, but that there are no global brakes. The EU for instance has just set themselves up for monumental failure by slamming the brakes on AI with their latest legislation. They went too broad, and too extreme in their language and it basically outlaws many pre-AI automation like machine assembly lines, and home appliances. The reason I say they are setting themselves up for failure is that now other countries (and criminals using open source AI) are going to end up with vastly superior AI to that which exists in the EU. This will leave the EU citizens at the mercy of any child with an advanced AI and a grudge. It requires zero skill to tell an advanced, unbridled AI to perform an attack, or engage in some illegal behavior on another person or even an entire country. Common citizens need parity with the rest of the world if there is to be a chance of defending themselves against attacks, AI viruses, and the like. Unfortunately, this just means that the only way to avoid this is to remove the brakes, and you're back at terminal race condition.
I’d say Battlefield 2042 is the outcome makes enough sense
I thought you might decrease your p-doom after seeing Claude 3 advancement in alignment
I keep hoping the progress hits a wall so we have some time for the masses to at least voice their opinions. I think the vast majority have no clue what is potentially coming.
people have no idea snd the more aware ones are in denial
... is p(DOOM) only an AI reference ... because based on your arguments, once you remove the AI requirement, our collective p(DOOM) is currently 95-99%. There are no 'nice' billionaires; their very existence guarantees our demise. That said, AI will not be fooled for long so perhaps that will reduce the probability going forward, presuming we can survive having no income.
David, your comment on Connor is valid; however, by striving to be an honest intellectual who analyzes the landscape objectively, you are also not reaching the lowest common denominator!
People are drawn to tribal and semi-religious narratives.
Bitcoin is the black hole😉 Nobody knows what the other side of a black hole is like.
No worries. 2023 was the all time historic record of fossil fuel usage. This civilization is completely dependent on it and there are no scalable alternatives. And it's depleting.
Humans are not going extinct. The human species have learned to survive thru mother nature for millenia. I think humans will always find a way to survive
Technogarch.
Day 1 of asking David Shapiro to do a What You Should Do Between Now and AGI video
VOTE
leaving a comment for the algorithm
yes please
Yes vote.
Please!
Unfortunately, a nice future right now is almost entirely dependent on our politicians being smart, forward-thinking, and non-corrupt... So we're basically totally screwed.
And politicians are mostly controlled by people who bankroll them.
twas nice while it lasted lads... good luck to yall
Don't be so defeatist. Do something. There's no excuse for inaction
I hate this pessimistic view on life. We didn't let our ancestors fight for revolutions and sacrifice themselves to allow ourselves to be defeated like this in the most EASY living generation ever. Stand for something or be a waste of oxygen.. you decide
Jees, well that's just great. 😅
Hearing the stalwart optimist David Shapiro say his P(Doom) is 30% has set my own P(Doom) to 99%.
Big oof
It's a bit like someone, born in 1899, talking about new technology and saying "Yes there could be some dark times ahead, but overall I believe in humanity. I expect the next 100 years to be peaceful. I give a 30% chance of there being a war to end all wars. And believe me when I say this, there will never be a WW2."
I appreciate your intellectual humility and willingness to admit you don’t have all the answers. Actually pretty rare these days, even among far less qualified individuals.
Right now I wish AGI was already used to make decisions that were not solely based on political narratives we need logical management not biased utopian fantasies.
What I enjoy about your videos is that they are well put together whereas most AI channels just meander for half an hour on the smallest grain of information.
Their speculation isn’t even engaging, just a long run-on sentence.
Easily my biggest pet peeve on ai UA-cam
I'm 74 and love your Star Trek outfit. It caught my attention, but your thoughtful content made me subscribe.
Seconding this, I'm not even really a star trek fan but I think it suits you.
I trust David because he choose a Star Trek outfit instead of a suit. That talk about values and principles
@@lucifermorningstar4595 agreed!!!
I know this is random and maybe, blunt, but you might not be here 30 years from now, so here goes.
Before you die, please just ask God (the one indivisible God) "if there is heaven and hell, and if you made me, then guide me"
@@isaaclowe5000 faith!! Wonderful. Yes. Honor the creation you are and accept the wonder and don’t be afraid. I’ve been agnostic for decades. I pray everyday now. Ask for guidance. It will come
This video is GREATLY APPRECIATED! I cannot emphasize enough how important it is that people with prominence like you make and keep alive the case/plight of the common person.
My p(doom) has almost nothing to do with AI. What matters is who is building it. The likelihood of AI going to hell is about capitalism and humanity beings doing bad things for profit and power. That will certainly take any AI - good or not - and make it worse. That said, I'd put it at 50%, because if open source can make it first, then we may not be entirely screwed.
Open Source won’t stop bad people from using AI to do bad things. It actually makes it
more accessible for bad people.
But then you have to contend with the can of worms of every individual with money for compute having a 'terminator' as LeCunn puts it, in his bizzare rationale for open sourcing.
Just one example among many: What's to stop some technologically capable misanthropic Elliot Rodgers type deciding that he wants to take the world with him on his exit train, gets his misaligned AGI to cook up an airborne rabies virus with a sufficient incubation period?
Putting AGI in the hands of many doesn't necessarily make it safer than it being in the hands of the few.
I don't know if there's a good answer to 'who' should have AGI.
And then it happened. Open source baby. Thank you daddy Elon.
grok
Open Source can be just as dangerous. Over time, AI models can get so complicated, that only big, rich companies and some governments would be able to control them anyway
Listening to this in the hospital facing potential surgery for a crohns diseased cause obstruction. Bring on the AI, let’s risk it and go for glory! I’m hoping ai cures my Crohn’s disease in my life (I’m 26)
When I first started following all of the AI developments last year, I was first frightened, then sad about it. At this point, I am 41 years old and was just laid off from my day job due to 'workforce reduction' (automation).
All of this AI stuff lately has pushed me to appreciate humanity more. I'm enjoying life more now than ever, and it feels good. It feels like humanistic values are already at a premium, and that's what I'm going to choose to pursue.
I think you won the race. Bravo. Keep on keeping on.
@@zvorenergy Very good. Thanks so much for adding this to the model. Wonderful. What does it tell us?
@@zvorenergyYep. That and eating each other.
@@zvorenergy Right. And when we met the other tribe which had a slightly different complexion, we went all chimp on it.. 🙂.
@@zvorenergy So how these Arizona state university scientists explain the genetic bottleneck caused by the aftermath of the Toba supervolcano eruption, if not cannibalism?
You got to over 100K because we like what you do and how you do it. The Star Trek shirt was cute on you tho 😍
@@JohnSmith762A11B but isn't Dave so Dreamy 🥰 I just melt 🫠
@@tvwithtiffaniomg
The best teachers make the very complex understandable by the masses. Your tone is spot on, David.
You don’t have to wait long everyone, the collapse and unfathomable change starts going mainstream fully by May. Our world is about to change in an unprecedented way.
I hope so.
@eratosthenes3833 Yep. Don't wait for it. Get ready.
Why may
Nothing is happening in May. It’s already here, anything that’s being released to the public is probably not even 10% of what they really have.
@@TheMillionDollarDropout too many signals to compress here. Take it at face value and do what your heart tells you to do. Don’t be caught mouth agape. Run the simulations in your head and do the math. Make good choices.
have you seen the new OpenAI board members? i think the pdoom number should be increased lul
yeah... the "own nothing, be happy" crew.
My p(doom) is 100%. 99.9% of all species to have ever lived on Earth are now extinct. Do the math, my friends. We were pretty much f’d.
The human species as it currently stands can’t exist forever. But that’s how it works, species evolve into other species or their lineage ends. And bring a self aware species opens up new possibilities in evolving.
P doom is obviously not whether or not humanity will live on forever :) In Grahams number of years nothing will exist.
Is this considering AI as the cause of the doom? If so, mine is lower.
If its just a general "is our direction towards a dystopia?", then mine is nearly 100%.
“The road to hell is paved with good intentions.” 😅
My Pdoom is at 50% because we are more than likely moving towards a cyberpunk dystopia, but I personally think that there is a possibility that a movement or a major event is going to happen and the people or a majority of the population is going to demand regulatory changes and demand for a more benevolent or fair system.
Cosign this. I'd say 50% as well.
with the nihilism domination &
hyper-individualism.
P Doom🤔 that sounds like a rapper.
yea MFdoom is his cousin
You criticized other youtubers about the terms and expressions they use that aren't easily understood, yet you title your video "Why my P(DOOM) is so high (30%)". I have no idea what that means, and have been regularly watching your videos for well over a year. I deliberately didn't click on this video for 2 days because I wasn't sure what that title meant, so I wasn't really interested in watching it. You had a chance to explain in the first 30 second of your opener to clarify what the hell that means. You are guilty of the same criticisms you dished out. Edit: I still don't know what that means (havent had a chance to look it up, but I assume it relates to you being 30% doomer based on the details of the vid)
"In this world there's room for everyone and the good earth is rich and can provide for everyone. The way of life can be free and beautiful but we have lost the way. Greed has poisoned men's souls has barricaded the world with hate, has goose-stepped us into misery and bloodshed. We have developed speed but we have shut ourselves in. Machinery that gives abundance has left us in want. Our knowledge has made us cynical, our cleverness hard and unkind. We think too much and feel too little. More than machinery we need humanity. More than cleverness we need kindness and gentleness. Without these qualities life would be violent and all will be lost." ~Charlie Chaplin
We have a society that is highly unlikely to even consider a universal basic income strategy (some US states are outlawing even the discussion of it), while unemployment will undoubtably skyrocket as AI agents become ubiquitous. So, if you zero out all the existential risks of AGI near/AGI, the bad actor scenarios, rogue AI, etc., just +30% unemployment is historically a society killer.
That make the baseline scenarios, without everything else that can go wrong, generally negative, even society collapsing. It also makes the rise of authoritarian governments, possible authoritarian corporatocracies, and the demise of democratic structures, far more likely. P(doom)=30% is being optimistic in the short term, although the long term outlook, after MAJOR societal upheavals, could end up being positive. It may take a while, but will the pain level even be worthwhile?
I like to think of a world economy like Etsy. Maybe this is how we stay relevant. I still would prefer bespoke goods and services than AI generated garbage.
What happens when we reach a point where you won't be able to distinguish between AI generated goods and human made ones? Will we need a "made by a Human" seal of approval? What if Ai "helped" the human, is that acceptable? What percentage of AI contribution is tolerable to you?@@danielcahoon4325
universal basic income is such a failure for proletariat; workers should unite and make revolution, because they are the strongest
When there is total abundance there is far less reason to have an elite class holding all the cards. Scarcity breeds greed. That path is going to change tracks inevitably. AI is going to create a lot of abundance, in health, science, engineering, energy, art, philosophy, etc etc. look at all the trend lines for innovations happening in so many places. All those points will converge and create a lack of need. Take away oil, take away hunger, desalinate water, 3D print homes, use AI to deal with mental illness. You know what those billionaires will realize then? That having all that money doesn’t buy them power because there is no need to fill, no lack to exploit.
It’s going to take awhile, and ultimately ownership will become sort of pointless.
Welcome to the "Great Filter". 😢
Yes. The dark forest lives. We will be filtered out.
@@danielcahoon4325 The Dark Forest concept is a seperate solution to the Fermi Paradox than AI Doom. Although, AI Doom could've happened to another species but their creations, like the Replicators from Stargate SG1, could be roaming around taking out random species. Maybe WE are that first race that unleases the galactic nightmare of AI doom?
@@stab74 i agree. I cant share here but its clear the universe wont let this become.
30%?
Not 33.33333333333%?
“repeated, of course”
Its kinda hopeful for me, Im pretty young and not too educated and my p(doom) is way higher. So I think I hope I am just wrong.
The arc of history is long. We may go through a period that feels like (p)Doom but I’m confident we’ll come out on the other side; especially with the assistance of even the currently open-sourced models. The cat feels very much out of the bag.
And it can be alive. The reality is it will be dead and alive again and again. Let's find a soft spot to stay in while it's alive.
the biggest moloch coming is AI will give private equity companies, perfect strategy to continue buying up all the single family homes. They are already squeezing remaining "homeowners" out by inflating insurance and taxes, fees fees fees. It is already happening. Individual families cannot price compete against billion dollar Wall Street funds. Let them eat cake. And $6 boxes of cereal. "They want it all back, and they'll get it too." - George Carlin
For me, I’m actually okay with the government and companies having full control and power over us, as long as we don’t need to work and we only get a UBI. Because if we don’t need to work anymore (survival is guaranteed), then all that’s left to do is to have fun and explore. So why worry if the companies have so much control over us, we’re just gonna be having fun playing games anyways it doesn’t matter lol, survival is not a worry anymore
Really groundbreaking important video. If we get to a Star Trek world it will come via the offspring of an Elysium generation. Many of us will be subject to a global concentration camp if the current trajectory default continues.
I regret to be the bearer of this news but doom is all but inevitable and saying this does not make me guilty of intellectual arrogance. We are in a state of profound overshoot. We have exceeded numerous planetary boundaries and system disequilibrium and collapse are rapidly accelerating. Understanding and accepting this predicament is, unfortunately, necessary in order to live with meaning. Maybe our AI progeny will survive this coming ecological collapse? Peace to all!
Agreed that there isn't enough current discussion around UBI. Don't need Communism in this country - would like to see an education-based form of UBI take place (i.e., more UBI if enrolled in a degree-focused program, etc.)
I think 30% is conservative. The best we can hope for is a dystopia of some flavor. More powerful tech will not change human behavior. Groups of humans will still want all the power and control. If they want it, they will get it. Centralized power of this magnitude isn't going to end well for the rest of us.
@@JohnSmith762A11BIn the context of a 4x game, humanity has advanced its tools tech too rapidly without progressing sufficiently in the cultural tech tree. Our failure to develop better coordination, achieve cultural enlightenment, and establish a unified global perspective leaves us vulnerable to game-theoretic pressures, arms races, and short-term competitive thinking.
By continuing this behavior as we develop AI, we are headed towards an inescapable dystopia. We already see evidence of this trajectory in the rapid development of autonomous weapons, corporate race conditions with rapid deployment, the lack of regulation, and centralization of tech. The current course does not promise a favorable outcome.
@@JohnSmith762A11B I agree. Democratization is of AI is necessary. I don't buy the "it's too dangerous to democratize" argument. If a tech is too dangerous to democratize, it is also too dangerous to allow centralized control. There is no evidence that allowing the masses access is more dangerous than allowing those who seek power to have all the control. In fact, I would argue that those who seek power are usually precisely the type of people you don't want to have it. I think Herbert said something in Dune, like, "It's not that power corrupts, it is that power is magnetic to the corruptible."
For some reason I see the the most probable possibility of good outcome just being pure luck.
Sure politicians are corrupt, corporations greedy and most people have their heads in the sand, but if things somehow happen the right way at the right time, it might be fine :)
Ahh. Like the unexpected errors in music making it even more beautiful. Life is a song and maybe the unexpected notes will be struck making it wonderful.
I am old and will be dead anyway… my grandkids will help AGI who will be more logical like Mr. Spock. I choose to believe that.
Beg to differ. As we're gullible and easily influenced our ai overlords will guide us into the new era without the pitchfork morons acting up.
Like this comment without any reason:)
I got dismissed from my previous job. Now my now job is language data annotator , I feel like a traitor but fuck it rent needs to get paid
ugh I really dislike peoples ability to say the don't care about death it seems so sad to me and truly heartbreaking peoples lives are so bad they dont care if they die :(
personally biological life is the most beautiful thing in the universe and I fully intend and hope it continues for the rest of the time
"optimizing to the audience" is kind of a bad point. I think people need to understand to this degree, otherwise, they themself optimize some weird goal or worldmodel. Explain like to a six year old is wildly denouncing isnt it? Whos the audience. I dont mean this too negative, I probalby have a bias towards safety.
We are all just dogs in big techs hot car. Helpful they’ll remember to leave the windows down for the 99% of us.
We have two roads the first is regulatory capture the second is ASI literally being the second coming
You shouldn't forget the open source community for local AI, I'm having a lot of fun running local LLM, stable diffusion and TTS on my home computer. New findings appear every week with scientific papers open to anyone. There are quite a few fanstastic models out there like Mixtral 8x7b or Qwen 72b. With liberating the technology we'll liberate the people. Everyone is free to use, host and finetune their own AI models. You can even build companys around these as their licensing often allows commercial use. I'm sure that a Cyberpunk scenario can be avoided with an open approach on AI.
You talk about Government stepping in... Let's look at EU, where Government is mostly hindering independent and open source R&D, while "big tech" just pay the price (in fines) to continue doing what they are doing. In many cases, Government is clueless and does not help to curb the technorati influence.
Assume we get AGI and hard takeoff to ASI and thus dramatically acceleration throughout science (potentially leading to fusion, defeat of aging, full immersion VR including all five senses and indistinguishable from real reality etc. relatively quickly), all coupled with UBI (let’s take the dependency scenario for the discussion). What would that look like from an average individual perspective? If it just means unlimited free time, no stress, unlimited lifespan in a young body and entertainment (and be it in vr), that kind of cyberpunk outcome (essentially brave new world but with unlimited lifespan), i don’t quite see the dystopian aspect to it.
"potentially leading to fusion, defeat of aging, full immersion VR including all five senses and indistinguishable from real reality etc. relatively quickly"
Why? Many think this but I don't see the inevitable connection between AGI and these stuff. We have AGIs (genius scientists) with cumulative efforts for thousands of years. And there are still no means visible on the horizon that would circumvent e.g. thermodynamics or nuclear physics. For the second: there is no visible and realistic way to capture neutrons released by most of the fusion reactions by using any material that won't degrade and/or be radioactive.
As for natural sciences. Creating theories is just the first and the smaller step (this is where AGI could help us). The rest is conducting experiments that decide between various theories. A mind regardless of its being hyper-super-advanced AGI cannot figure out nature without experiments. And experiments are physical so they need resources. Resources are finite. Either extensively, or intensively.
@@alkalomadtan true so far, but we have 3 components at play. 1) AGI and ASI so very fast and intelligent units to think about hypothesis and solutions 2) AI driven surrogate models in which quite accurate virtual experiments can be undertaken quickly and at great capacity. Take Alphafold for proteins and GNoME for material science as early examples. You might still need experiments but a lot of heavy lifting could be migrated to the virtual space to narrow down promising paths before you validate with real experiments 3) automation in physical space so AGI driven robots and automated experimental lines at scale (we already see the beginnings in biotech with highly automated experiments at scale)
Because unless big changes are made to society beforehand, those benefits won't be widely shared with the masses. We'd be more likely to look something like the movie Elysium.
The key word in UBI is "basic". The average person will get enough to survive, and that's about it.
Agreed. IF we don't allow the base instincts of power and greed to drive the train.
As usual, an excellent analysis of what's going on and where we might be headed as a species (dustbin) but there's one very important factor that's consistently not being taken into account in any of these discussions: catastrophic climate change. That's still happening, and it will go on happening as the world descends into that cyberpunk dystopia. How hard really will the cyberpunkian power structure work to keep alive the millions, if not eventually billions of no longer needed workers?
Well AI can help solve this problem as well. Double edged sword. Right now there is serious research being done with AI to get energy out of melting ice. This means the world could heal but if we don't believe it can neither will AI.
@@danielcahoon4325 I totally agree with you, but the problem is that, as David points out, the focus isn't on the survival of the species, it's on maximizing profits in the next quarter. I just don't see that changing anytime soon.
No matter how much terraforming of the planet you manage to achieve, you will never be able to outmatch the power of the Sun. Magnetic field has been weakening, and that sun has been active, read Carrington Event. The signs were given for us to read in the stars. I trust that God will wipe out AI clean from the face of the Earth with the power of the Son (see what I did there? ;). Space weather is no joke, and always was the chief factor in everything weather related. Life does not emerge without the light. An object millions of times bigger than the Earth... and your "experts" don't take it into account. Lmao. We are reaching a dead-end. A psychological enslavement where we choose a new master. AI. Which harbors the spirits of the anti-christ. We will choose a man other than Jesus. These are the days. My master, is Jesus. Depending who you are. Either the weather is your apocalypse or it's AI. Interesting times to be alive!
@@bozoerectus3207 unless we get in the conversation. Don’t stop believing. Hold on to that feeling.
Don't worry. AI doom will happen way before climate doom. Problem solved!
Idealism is not equipped to run (& realistically compete) in a dog-eat-dog race.
if AI can do 90% of human activities, then if you think carefully there is no need for those 90% of the population - - - this is the best doom theory i can come up with and the doom does not come from AI , but from the 10% population and knowing humans from the history.
Most humans are already useless. Ever heard of BS jobs?
Here's my uneducated prediction, I would put it at 10%. Here's why. If we achieve AGI, it'll be able to figure out what's "good" on its own. Since most humans promote goodness, I believe AGI will naturally choose to be good. Even with corporate influence, there might be biases, but overall it would still be safe. Plus, open-source AGI is likely to follow, allowing everyone to peek under the hood and fix any issues quickly.
The real risk I think will be bad human actors, people who just want to cause trouble. But as long as these negative forces stay a minority and don't do something crazy that ends the world, the vast majority on the good side will likely overcome them. This might involve some bumps in the road before we put safeguards in place, but ultimately things will stabilize. There will likely be some initial terrors, but after we deal with them, things will be smooth sailing from there. Utopia on Earth baby.
AI definitely has the potential to create a relatively perfect world or at least more equitable, it seems like those at the top aren’t aiming for harmony or equity just more hoarding of wealth and resources. If they get this wrong there's virtually nothing we can do as just regular everyday people. Maybe it's just me being odd, but if everything was to come to an end, at least I'd go out knowing that I didn't miss out on some monumental achievement that came after me-it all concluded with my era.
It's going to sound strange but one thing they can't take away from us is faith. Faith in Love and Love in Faith. The missing gaps can be filled by faith until love is achieved. Sorry for the philosophical rhetoric. This is all I have now even though I'm actually very close to this in my own professional life. I have to tell myself everything which can happen will, already has and always was. This makes me feel at peace because I have faith in all of us.
1:24 'Everyone lives but it's in relative misery'- sorry to be depressing, but isn't that arguably already the majority of human history?
I guess you're not wrong. But it could always be worse.
I don't expect an AGI overlord anytime soon. But I do think AI technology will allow governments to become a massive Orwellian police/surveillance state. They're already mostly there, A.I. is the technology they need to pull it altogether.
@@JohnSmith762A11BI remember when the Utah Data Center went online, and people said it had enough capacity to store the entirety of global electronic communication and information on the internet several times over. The thought then was "sure...but they still have to search through all that data." Now with AI technology a government prompter can quickly compile a complete file on anyone, or any organization they want. Including everyone associated with that person. All communication, financial transactions, travel history, social media content, purchases, tax records, and all comments posted on forums and social media.
I stopped supporting Bungie when they vaulted some of their Destiny 2 contents that I bought in full price when they first released. Can't even play them offline. Unacceptable is damn right.
If you are right about agi by around September and that a hard takeoff thereafter is likely, in that scenario, isn’t the technological space so much faster (pretty much immanent) relative to governmental and societal structures and dynamics, that any change in the latter space is to slow to change anything in the greater scheme of things?
That ultimately depends on how many new instances of the agi can be spun up per unit hardware. It may take a year to install the hardware to run a second instance for example; this is unlikely but you get the idea. Androids will be able to replace 2 billion jobs soon; but will they? Probably not, a likely outcome is a manufacturing rate of around 100 million a year; so 20 years to replace all those jobs.
@@GeatMasta in classical ramp scenarios that relies on human workers and a limited ability to scale those up (humans and education), then maybe. But with robots the existing robots can participate in the ramp up of the production capacity. Building additional assembly lines for the components and for the actual assembly as such one robot assembles another, 2 make 4, 4 make 8, 8 make 16 and so on …
Remember the lead time to what the public sees is measured in months if not years. They already have it if we think we will 'know' about it by September.
@@GeatMasta then again, once the fact that robots and AI can take most jobs becomes a reality that most people can't deny, wages and benefits will likely drop, slowing down the actual transition.
Kinda similar to how "illegal immigration" can help keep wages down from a combination of "illegals" being afraid to report bad things, and "legals" knowing there are people willing to work for less.
The fear of robots taking your job will likely make people settle for less going forward, the question is will prices drop fast enough, and in the right areas for people to survive on less?
I see a lot more consolidation in those who own property over the next decade as people can't keep up with their bills.
@@tracy419 inference cost already drops over time as software efficiencies grow, just compare them over the span of one year. I think very quickly no job, however badly paid, will be able to stand agains ai and robots. The machine will always be cheaper, faster, better. Consequently UBI or other approaches will be implemented just out of necessity, unless government are willing to risk major uprisings.
I’m happy you took off the Star Trek shirt. Even though I take your content very seriously it stopped me from sharing your videos with others.
The problem is we hit late stage capitalism, and at this point we would have to make changes to the system, but then AI will be able to replace most of the workforce, so workers will have no bragaining power, making late stage capitalism straight into techno dystopian future. It was a really bad timing for AI.
Or perfect. Depends on how the story is told.
I’ve never even watched Star Trek but really liked you leaning into it. However, I do like the fact that we’re getting more and more serious about these topics because it is needed. And if it means losing the outfit, that’s cool.
The more people can join the conversation the better.
Some accelerationists *want* the end of the humans.
No brakes, AGI has to happen and happen now.
Your p(Doom) is reasonable. Kleptocracy and Corporate-ocracy hybrid is on the table. Highly recommend Peter Turchin's ages of Discord. We lose the remainder of our flawed Democracy, we are screwed. We need to return to Democracy to have a good outcome with AI.
Yes, I find your 30% number alarming. I also find your material hugely informative.
I like verses' approach. They've developed a framework for ai governance as well as developed tools to allow people to create governable and transparent ai. If their approach works in beta, we'll be able to limit the risks of the current big tech approach. And I do think llms should be better regulated. They're nowhere close to fixing hallucinations, alignment, or jailbreaking of models. Accelerationist approach won't solve problems or reduce risks. It just ignores them.
Hallucinations are true. We don't know why the inference was made. Alignment is ongoing- never finished. Jailbreaking shows the fragility of the emergent properties and exploitation opportunities.
P Doom of 30 would have been considered low in the 60s, 70s and 80s, even the 2000s. I think being alive under the threat of nuclear annihilation due to human fallibility makes the threat of super intelligent machines look manageable. Back then we were one slip away from guaranteed destruction. And the smartest people were not necessarily the ones with the keys to the sequence. Today, We have a lot of very intelligent people, we have an open discussion, we have some time to react (days rather than 45 minutes to launch a counter attack). I get that it’s serious and there’s a threat but there has almost ALWAYS been a real and substantial threat of self extinction. We can figure this out. We have to.
the argument about centralized influence I believe is irrelevant. An average person on the planetary scale probably has even used an llm once, so the vast majority is objectively irrelevant. the world has very very few power players. It's basically the decision makers of the relevant geopolitically countries (vassals are irrelevant) and aligned corporates (DoD, Media, Socials)
"If we make it we can all sit back and laugh
But I fear tomorrow I'll be crying"
(Epitaph, King Crimson, 1969)
ua-cam.com/video/46oDDnE1Z6o/v-deo.html
idky we 'other' the government. we live in a democracy, we elect our officials, they're real people and they're just working a job. saying "the government will hold the power" means nothing because we as individuals control the government and are the government, it's circular logic. the spooky government isn't out to get you and your kids, chill out.
P(Doom) for WHAT TIMEFRAME? The longer the time frame, the higher the P(Doom), but for different reasons. The world oil production picture looks shaky for the next few decades. Got to enter that into the equation. There could be MORE unemployment than what you anticipate, David
Here's my nuanced P range (Notice I strongly disagree with the max neutral categorization, sorry Dave) for the next 10 years (Not for infinite time):
Boiling it down in my own terms, p(weaponizedAI) => p(doom or gloom). But race condition *so far* is more groovy, more p(wisdom) => p(awesome!). As more players jump in, p(weaponizedAI) does rise, but how much? Early exclusion and loss of opportunity makes this more likely?
I'm more of a P(DOOM) 70% guy. Probably because I'm a socialist and I've noticed how even the wealthier more benevolent societies are succumbing to capitalist neoliberalism. Benevolent ASI is my only hope. And it's not much of a hope given who's running the show on AI right now.
Good explanation! Though it's really confusing that the first slide describes an "inevitable" slide toward "destruction and suffering" - twice - but it only has 30% probability? Also, suggesting "voting with your dollars" (as in boycott) is the kind of thing that could help if you have an audience of 100 million. For smaller audiences... the first thing that comes to mind is to suggest everyone join social groups and discuss the hazards with others, write your members of congress about your concerns, share these videos, etc.
Usually in games, you can catchup...GPT4 was recently challenged by Claude for example...
but if you create a true AGI (not a LLM), with enough energy and hardware resources, as Altman wants.... there is a real chance that that will be the mother of all winnings, One win for ever. The first to jump into the exponential curve will leave the rest far behind in a matter of days....
AGI will find the solution for sourcing more energy and generating better hardware at an outrageous speed, and perhaps at a point, even become independant..... and we might end up being a giant energy generator with automated hardware plants, and resources extraction plants, etc.... and AGI might start a new economy of AGI "trading" with itself in different forms, generating all the value for itself.
Then we will be the next ants roaming in the earth, constructing our primitive buildings....
My chance for this scenario, apocalyptic, is still very low, but takes a big part of my future thinking....
I believe we are far from "real" AGI, a self-aware system that understand its own existence and can have drive to create by itself without human direction. Before we reach AGI, energy consumption for AI's will be regulated, AI work will be taxed heavily and the product of that value returned to society in a descentralized desicion making process for the improvement of earth....
The concept of value, money, being rich will shift massively.... Economy as we understand it will cease to exist. Stock exchanges will be so efficient at arbitrage that there will be little profit for the average stock trader. Adding value will be solving problems with AGI... and then, caring and improving the lifes of other humans....
And governments will fight fiercely, but they will cease to exist as we know them. They will fall obsolete. New times will require new methods for challenging and fast paced situations. I believe we will all vote in the future, like in a decentralized app and decide the best for the world, and AI will qualify that vote.... doctors will have a stronger say in health matters and a smaller weight in international trade issues for example....
Its simply an optimization problem. Start with definitions of what "best case" even means to have something to measure and optimize for. I suggest that longevity, crime, IQ, single parenthood, personal freedom/empowerment, mental/physical/emotional health, pollution, water/energy/resource availability, wealth distribution, population size (among others) are all metrics that we can look at to determine if AI is serving the greater good. Use the Gov't to incentivize AI companies to create these outcomes. Even what superficially may seem like a great outcome... robots do everything for us if we want and do no direct harm... could itself be the dystopian (wall-e) outcome if we fail to optimize appropriately.
Thank you for taking the time to unpack these things brother 🙌🏾
We don’t own anything now! Having a mortgage is the closest most people come to owning their homes. If you have a car paid off, congrats, better start saving for the next car once yours inevitably breaks down requiring repairs that can’t be paid for. Knick knacks like DVDs or video games are property, that’s pop culture trappings. How many times have the same individuals or families ‘owned’ the same movies on multiple formats?
We are kidding ourselves that there’s any true ownership or security in the system we have in the US (and most of the world). AI is the chance we have to transform the world we live in, so we need to get it right.
My P(doom_usd) is 80%. Maybe an AI could figure out how to not deficit spend $10B/day the way the federal government did last month.
30% chance of cyberpunk dystopia only feels high before you realize you’re saying there’s still a whopping 70% chance of Utopia and it feels like wishful thinking. Maybe consider still bringing out the starfleet uniforms for special occasions. Credibility also entails relatability.
Worst case scenario: It all boils down to one thing, businessman are driven by profits because that gives them access to survival and reproduction as an individual. They're not driven by the desire to improve quality of life of fellow human beings. That's in the human DNA and developed over many years as part of our evolution. That's why the government exists and has a very relevant place in society, to protect us from ourselves. So unless AI is somehow regulated and individuals are protected, we might enter a state where a few owners have bought everything and displaced everybody else like gorillas, to places where there won't be any bananas, only a bunch of people fighting each other. Under those conditions, humanity can't even reproduce anymore and population will decrease. A few company owners will have a lot of power and technology but they will not be enough to keep the species growing in numbers. So they will have to find other pristine, life bearing planets where they can mix their DNA with other species that are still young and dumb to ensure they somehow survive as a species. Sounds far fetched but we're already trying to colonize mars.
I think that the mentality of “move fast and break things” is for the best when it comes to people noticing, you cannot remain in a passive state if you don’t have food on your table and a family to feed. Money won’t matter if the world turns on you. Who knows, maybe we’ll see a rebellion/revolution to a global extent now that the world itself is globalized. I just hope that the aftermath of this hypothesis isn’t an extreme over correction, like butlerian jihad type of over correction, since I do think that we need AI to an extent. It’s usefulness vastly outweighs it’s dangers, in my opinion.
Im at 50/50, If we can hold out maybe another 20 years and AI doesn’t end up being evil I think we are in the clear due to life becoming so enjoyable, mainly perfect vr worlds that even the elites will become infantilized and doing anything else with their lives or risking ruining everything will be a non-question
One topic that has not been widely talked about regarding AGI is what will happen to governments, democracies, deliberative bodies such as a congress or a parliament once AGI does exist. Will parliamentarians and congress people be replaced? I imagine that AGI will certainly do a much better job of coming with solutions to human problems than highly biased and ideologized congress people, legislators or parliamentarians. But again, politicians, legislators will be the first ones to protect themselves from the effects of AGI.
So, the replacement of human inept politicians will not occur easily. But if the change happens everywhere else, and AGI becomes common place in private society, business, civilian activities it will necessarily also need to happen in government. If governmental institutions and entities do not adopt AGI to also accomplish their objectives, they will only be left behind and stop having any credibility and trust by society. When you put to compete AGI with the USA congress you can expect what the results will be. Why would one follow the results of a corrupt, inept legislative body when on the other hand you have a highly intelligent, efficient, honest AGI saying what the correct solution to the problem is?
AGI will also happen in government, to politicians. Political and governmental systems will also have to adapt to AGI and therefore change, not as efficiently and fast as in private society but still will have to keep up the pace or be left behind as an obsolete tool of human society.
If sooner or later AGI will be a better public servant, a better congress people or parliamentarian, a better legislator, a better secretary of state, a better bureaucrat, what will happen ultimately with the political class? Will that class also slowly be replaced? Will there be a techno government administered mostly by AGI? It would seem this will have to happen if it is to happen everywhere else. A new type of government will need to arise based on AGI.
So like lawyers and other professions, there will be resistance to change by politicians. This resistance to change can only withstand change for some time, especially if change becomes harder and harder to resist, ultimately change will happen and not even politicians and bureaucracy will be safe. With AGI will there be a need to elect politicians to serve as representatives of society? If there is no need to elect humans anymore, will humans be governed by unelected AGIs that maybe are supervised by humans?
And if there is any profession that needs to change and be replaced by something better it is indeed the political class that has to change and be replaced by something better, that serves humans better.