Can Patriot SAM Air Defence Stop Russia's KH-47M2 Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile? | DCS
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- Опубліковано 22 тра 2023
- In mid-May 2023, certain media outlets claimed that Ukraine shot down a Russian KH-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missile using a donated Patriot SAM. We model this as best we can to see if we can theoretically repeat this claim.
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#WarGames #GRWarGames #Patriot #Kinzhal #Hypersonicmissile #ukrainewar #Aviation #AviationGaming #FlightSimulators #Military - Ігри
Ukraine-Russia Series:
Eurofighter vs Su-57: ua-cam.com/video/OnKuV6259ck/v-deo.html
MALD, Storm Shadow & AARGM-ER: ua-cam.com/video/d6p0YY_VQZY/v-deo.html
Storm Shadow vs Russian SAMs: ua-cam.com/video/5wJPbBAj0WM/v-deo.html
Iskander vs Various SAMS: ua-cam.com/video/KxxahORODBA/v-deo.html
HIMARS vs Russian SHORADs: ua-cam.com/video/DI6yIt0goPA/v-deo.html
Storm Shadow vs Kerch Bridge: ua-cam.com/video/UsHa9Fe29gI/v-deo.html
Rapid Dragon vs Black Sea Fleet: ua-cam.com/video/rvUTl6xjxqY/v-deo.html
Ukraine With JDAM-ER: ua-cam.com/video/deWnN1319Xw/v-deo.html
UK Typhoons vs Su-57: ua-cam.com/video/OnKuV6259ck/v-deo.html
F-22 Raptors vs Russia President: ua-cam.com/video/Fcmt2kdebvI/v-deo.html
Air Force One vs Russia: ua-cam.com/video/IDVULTyzcEw/v-deo.html
AGM-179 JAGM vs 2S38 & T-90: ua-cam.com/video/6-f8GJzxg5E/v-deo.html
SEAD & ATACMS vs Kerch Bridge: ua-cam.com/video/HJ0MgwXydyY/v-deo.html
IMP US Strike vs Black Sea Fleet: ua-cam.com/video/xSUAiTVwI6o/v-deo.html
HIMARS ATACMS vs Kerch Bridge: ua-cam.com/video/uU_SPj0HQgo/v-deo.html
Sa-11 Buk Firing Sea Sparrow: ua-cam.com/video/uBoryuBHfBQ/v-deo.html
US Strike vs Black Sea Fleet: ua-cam.com/video/KMwYjJghQiA/v-deo.html
Rus SEAD vs Modernized Patriot: ua-cam.com/video/FdoyfKgaONE/v-deo.html
Rus Bombers vs Modernized Patriot: ua-cam.com/video/4Y961tLNE18/v-deo.html
JDAM vs S-400 Network: ua-cam.com/video/wP4sfDG-01E/v-deo.html
Kinzhal vs Pac-3 & IRIS-T: ua-cam.com/video/i0GzbajI0mU/v-deo.html
F16 or Gripen for Ukraine?: ua-cam.com/video/Y-k71nfap4Q/v-deo.html
Mig-31 vs NATO Black Sea AWACS: ua-cam.com/video/vFOzjW25ItI/v-deo.html
R-37M Long Range Shootdown: ua-cam.com/video/-3LKGL4w9Q4/v-deo.html
Drone Swarm vs NATO Defense: ua-cam.com/video/wDBOSd9qCDs/v-deo.html
Patrio PAC-3/IRIS-T vs Missiles: ua-cam.com/video/N5Z81iW8YNY/v-deo.html
MANPAD/IRIS-T vs Russian Missiles: ua-cam.com/video/N9R9GUVcTyk/v-deo.html
AGM-158C LRASM vs Sevastopol: ua-cam.com/video/GDZoDRhIIRw/v-deo.html
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Modernized Su-27 vs Su-35: ua-cam.com/video/7llLDzeT2Bs/v-deo.html
Modernized F15/F16 vs Su-35: ua-cam.com/video/-TozTHbAXVs/v-deo.html
Can Su-57 Defend Russia From F-22/35: ua-cam.com/video/E-oC3NgxC94/v-deo.html
IMPROVED Stealth vs Russian Bombers: ua-cam.com/video/IgwLW4YKvVU/v-deo.html
Ukraine Using Hellfire Missile?: ua-cam.com/video/s_1YHDTmPPw/v-deo.html
US Harpoons vs Russian Navy: ua-cam.com/video/Oiee83CWRcE/v-deo.html
Ukraine Using APKWS?: ua-cam.com/video/FBxV9YuAfaw/v-deo.html
Ukraine US HARMs vs Russian S-400: ua-cam.com/video/eSyEOXsjWo8/v-deo.html
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Sinking Of Moskva #2: ua-cam.com/video/snjfbj_EwW4/v-deo.html
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Flanker vs Super Flanker: ua-cam.com/video/VOAuOFLJGk4/v-deo.html
It’s a shame that the core game doesn’t allow for modification of how many interceptors are fired per a single incoming missile because the standard is to launch two PAC-3 at a single target-one simply hits the missile (hit-to-kill) and the second targets what’s left of the warhead section to minimize the risk of an explosives-packed chunk of debris falling near anything important.
possibly Ukraine has to be more conservative with them.
That might actually be what happened with the patriots & how they got damaged, slightly. If they were really hit by a Kinzhal I assume at least one would be destroyed. I believe the Patriots do a great job and coicidentally right before it happened i saw that simulation already where irisT & Patriot had some actual success intercepting. IrisT not yet perhaps but kraine will get the SLM, medium range with a better radar so who knows IrisT can intercept too, these systems might be linked too and get to share targets. For a while I hoped US would deploy THAAD with it for an IAD. It's worth it. Now a bunch of those are standing like in Korea or Guam doing nothing..
@@5AndysaliveThey were for a while, however after one of the launchers was damaged by missile debris I believe they went back to using the two hit method.
The damage was repaired in a few hours but still Way too close for comfort.
You're correct that it's 2 birds per targetx but PAC-3 always targets the warhead itself. The second bird is simply for added confidence that the target is intercepted.
They were using PAC-3 CRI. The Kh-47M2s were launched much further away than they were here too. In the second incident of multiple M2s being intercepted, at least 35 PAC-3 CRIs were launched.
Where did you get that data from?
@@ROTNReaper You can see PAC-3 boosters in Kyiv
@@Just_A_Random_Desk yep. The booster of the CRI, actually, which is a bit different from the MSE
@@cockatoo010 mse are almost double the range of the cost reduction initiative but you can fit 12 instead of 16, and those cost $4 million too!
I wonder what kind of radar Ukraine got? Probably the old one mq54!
@@ROTNReaper If I remember correctly from your mom
re: glowing stuff from the hypersonic velocities, search the youtube for the test launch of the ABM Sprint missile - it was doing mach 10 in 10 seconds, and literally glowing white in the sky, while at it. Nuts.
If the Kinzhals were launched 100 miles back, would that allow a better fire control solution for the Patriots? It looked like they didn't have time to get into ideal angle of attack.
Yeah, I thought the same thing…
Distance launched doesn't really matter if you don't have an early warning system tied into the ECS, what matters most is the detection range. Once the system gets BRASH on the track it'll formulate the fire solution and get missiles on it. CH was right in saying it doesn't really matter the speed of the target, just as long as the patriot gets to the right spot at the right time.
Yes, but detection range of the system is 150+ km. Earlier detection and launch could make a difference. Perhaps more time to launch additional missiles?
We tried before but they refuse to engage the missiles outside of 40 miles.
@M M that's why we in the US Patriot use link 16 and early warning satellites for max heads up. Ukraine has had time to develop that yet, or just hasn't found the justification to buy some of those systems
I’ll put it this way, the engineers at Raytheon haven’t been arrested and charged with treason 😅.
They got charged for treason because the missles don't work?!
I've got a bridge to sell prime New York city location. Let me know if you're interested 50% off limited time.
@@zartic4lifeWhat missiles don't work?
I am here and ready for the angry tankieposting.
The ruzzians exaggerating their weapon systems...no wayyyy 😂
@@leonleeoff2216 What is with this “Ruzzian” BS? I am actually disgusted and ashamed that we are associating them with Nazis. People forget history so easily these days, it’s depressing. Do you even know the definition of what a Nazi is?
@@leonleeoff2216 Any second now and they're totally gonna whip out their Ultra Super Duper Missile™ they've been hiding inside pootin's butthole this whole time and then the western nato ukronazis will truly be sorry
Incoming!!!t😂😂😂😂.
They have spammed every video that talked about the incident.
@@leonleeoff2216 you probably also believe Ukrops still hold Bakhmut too lol.
there are schematics available online of the khinzal internal structure, what looked to be the concrete penetrating bomb is actually the warhead
the khinzal is basically little more than the delivery vehicle for the warhead and is believed to be almost identical to the Iskander ballistic missile
and the similar structure that looks like the betab-500 that was found on the crashed kinzhal in Russia
@@ashblythe9598 Yep, one of the people that Russia Today uses as a source confirmed that that Betab-500 looking thing was the same warhead design used by both the khinsal and the Iskander missiles.
It's a fairly common russian practice of using the same component in multiple applications
@@pogo1140 The US also does the same with the JSOW using the BLU-111 from the mk-82 bomb.
@@bumponalog7164 No reason to keep redesigning the wheel
No, this is not the case, only the designers and the manufacturer know the internal structure of the rocket
So how can you model capabilities when the targeting system and the way patriot actually works is classified?????
Meteor trails are partially because of difference in electric charge so its plasma that you are seeing.
Well, they're claiming ballistic jars of tomato can bring down drones.
Same Patriot that it's failing in real time to deal with cheap drones 😂
Given the 91' patriot could track and intercept scuds why would the current version not be able to intercept the Kinzhal given it is basically an air launched Iskander. It follows a ballistic path so assuming computing power and time to intercept why would it not be able to intercept?
Cause a human operator sitting there all day doing nothing suddenly gets somthing on the radar, it takes time to classify it, then track and then fire a missile, depending on the situation the operator may even need clearance to fire which takes more time
Well, Kinzhal isn't that great, but if it could maneuver like they claim, it would be pretty hard to intercept. There are ballistic reentry vehicles that can maneuver though, so none of this seems like new threats to me as a layman.
@@Vsor It seems like the world forgot how advanced ballistic missiles and ICBMs from the 80’s were…
It would be interested to know the official US interception statistics from '91. As I recall a lot (dozens) of Iraqi SCUDs penetrated AD zones in both Saudi and Israel. And you had dedicated US fighter squads patrolling the sky 24/7, with modified radars acting as SCUD pickets.
If I'm not mistaken, that was the AN MPQ53 radar with a single TWT, and we now have the AN MPQ 65 dual TWT radar now, with the LTAMDS getting close to fielding.
So, on the first run, one of the Kinzhals missed & hit a different building? In fact in all three runs, a random building explodes.
Russian engineering. Sounds accurate.
@@flashgordon6670 Ah yes, the bio lab with the bio-engineered mosquitoes and the dirty bomb factory, of course!
Must've been an apartment, school, or hospital.
@@HAL_9001 Of course...the perfect explanation.
@@flashgordon6670 u are good in following wat u feel and creating imaginations which makes your heart happy and relieved.😀😀, Russia lost all its so calles kinzhal and its now imprisoning the scientists.😀
So it turns out the damaged mim 104 was only minor damage that was caused by falling fragments of a kh 47m2 that was shattered, with the launcher still operating on emergency power. Damage was less the 5,000 dollars and a hour of repairs, that comes from people that actually worked on it. Also we have evidence of 7 not one 1 kh 47m2 has been shot down, the betab 500 bomb is the warhead of the kh 47 killjoy as confirmed from crashed mig 31s carrying them. The final impact speed that was recorded on the killjoy before intercept by pac 3 was mach 3.5. We know this as the radars Ukraine is using is from a new battery not a old one, and when it saw the killjoy it feed the ballistic characteristics back.
Mig-31 crashed in occupied Crimea. How do you know what is using as a Kinzhal warhead?
@@alukret the body to the missile was spread out over a half kilometer in the photos, but you can still see the distinctive rocket motor and half the central body
Are you on Opium 😂
Nah You must be on Opium.
Really good video as always :)
Yea it must be really hard to get the optimal spread of counter missiles.
I would think the "Window of possible interception" is so small it may not even be able to fire more then one from the same launcher at the same Kinzhal.
But there is no doubt having the "smarter" and faster firecontrol computer would make all the difference.
And we can be sure that the data collected from the radars (from the recent attack) have already been uploaded back to home datacenters to create even better flight profiles of the Kinzhal missile, for future engagements.
Even if a patriot system was lost, the data was worth the price.
Great video, you mentioned in it in a real attack the missiles might come from several ways at once, rather down one bearing, have you considered doing the same sort of test but with multiple missiles on different attack vectors?
It's reported that the big attack on Kyiv did just that. Multiple directions, a swarm of missiles, all within 2 minutes. Really an impressive display of coordination on AFR's part.
GR, thanks for the theory crafting regarding the anti aircraft / anti missle / anti hypersonic tests involving various DCS modelled systems.
Great point Cap regarding how a Hypersonic missle would be viewed!
Thanks CH! Nicely done Cap :)
Remember, these PAC2 and PAC 3 systems are not deployed as single groups, they are normally deployed in 3 groups to triangle the area of protection.
Hey, cap. Do you know that every Kinzhal has six decoys in it? You can see where they are located if you look at the back of the missile. We should keep that in mind. But even 3d models in DCS do not have them.
I’m pretty sure DCS doesn’t have the capability to model any penetration aids so there isn’t much to do about those things in the sim.
@@MaxIsStrange1 but they already have some fake targets implementation in the sim...
@@iyhan1987 What do you mean?
@@MaxIsStrange1 he means TALD
@@MaxIsStrange1 yeap, Ian Pederson is right. I was talking about F-14B Tomcat: ADM-141 TALD implementation. Each Kinzhal has six of them onboard.
Greetings from Kyiv) Yes, it can 😊
Lmao, no it can't. Even your own air force defense came out and specifically said that they have never shot them down and that its not possible. Right after they said that the fascist put the squeeze on them and made them retract their statement.
@alexventrov6826 kiev said it cant even Intercept Kh22 which fly at mach 2,, 😂😂 let alone mach 10
the Tu-22 is such a cool looking plane.
Greetings from Sweden!
You guys rock!
It’s pretty important to note that it is unlikely they would fire so many missiles of which they have so little of at a single target so the patriot would probably have to intercept to at most at a time
based on what was reportedly in the air, it worked out 2-3 interceptors per target
Love your show, especially the recent Patriot vids. I’m intrigued by what happened in Kyiv a few days ago; I’m sure you’ve seen the video circulating on the internet. At about 00:14 Patriot missiles start launching: about 30 go up from two or possibly three launchers. At 02:14 there’s a huge explosion just left of the right (eastward?) launcher. What happened? Could you guys Analyse or even perhaps game it? Keep up the great work.
Just a side note: Hypersonic weapons are just a PR gag. There are many missiles out there, even some from the cold war, that can reach hypersonic speeds. The only kinda "new" thing about the Kinzhal is, that it can sustain hypersonic flight for longer then other missiles. And in fact there are many air defense systems, which can intercept or shoot down the Kinzhal missile.
Your mum you that? 😂😂😂
They also use control thrusters rather than fins because fins have to trade speed/ energy to maneuver.
As does any form of course correction device. Turns don’t come for free.
Yes it can. Repeatedly
Lmao no it can't
The first it didn't happen group apparently mistook an internal part that looks a bit like a nose cone and then claimed the nose cone for the missile doesn't look like this.
Where can we get the mod for the Kinzhal on the TU-22M3 ? Thank you :)
They just don't accelerate fast enough.
To get the plasma streak the speed needs to be above Mach 10. So possibly at one brief part of the lofting phase of the flight but there should be no plasma in the terminal phase. Hypersonic start at mach 5 when all boundary flow becomes turbulent. But there is a regime known as high hypersonic from mach 10 where these thermal effects are becoming the dominant consideration. The hypersonic glide vehicles will occupy this area for a lot more of the flight.
As a real world Patriot system operator, I can say surprisingly yes
There's video of one getting through.
@@92HazelMocha Able to stop and 100% probability of kill are very different. Just because it can hit the target, doesn't mean that one [or more] couldn't slip through the network.
@@92HazelMocha the video showed shrapnel from a downed missile hitting near the site
@@dowgy177 I definitely meant the video of the explosion at the site location.
@@kanagawakenji7 Very true, but it's important to not overstate capabilites. For example, Russia could also claim that Kinzhal can penetrate a Patriot's defended zone despite having several intercepted.
Thank you for this.
Hey Cap thank you for the video.
However, I was wondering if this was this before or after our recent discussion on the 5/16 attack? I guess I'm a little confused, as none of the quoted reports from CNN/Sandboxx along with the images/analysis from the Russian-speaking military expert per our discussion were mentioned.
Anyhow, there are a couple things I noticed. The PAC 3 MSE are 16 per launcher, and it appears the launcher in the video used 12? The 16 per launcher is one of the primary reasons why there were nearly 30 missiles launched in the two-minutes of footage reportedly showing two Patriot launchers defending Kyiv, in addition to their acceleration and launch angle as shown in the footage. All reports indicate a Russian time-on-target attack from 3 directions (North, East, Southeast) invvoving six Kinzhal and approximately 9 Kaliber cruise misssiles launched from the Black Sea (if I recall correctly), plus an unknown number of suicide drones to effectively add as target saturation. All reports I've seen only have one Kinzhal making it to close enough to its target and subsequently damaging (not destroying) one component of the Patriot site, as Patriot is designed to have its components spread miles apart as needed (the launch batteries, command center, radars, etc. all have a large distance between them as defensive features, due to a difference in defensive concepts, with Russian units being closer together and able to pack-up and move within minutes of an attack alert).
Also, Patriot automatically fires two missiles per incoming target by default to increase the default PK. If, during this DCS test, the Patriot battery doesn't even have time to detect and fire two missiles at each incoming Kinzhal, or the engagement doesn't last for more than ~20 seconds, this would be highly indicative of not matching up well with the video evidence we have available to-date which accompany the news reports. If the Patriot in DCS can't detect and fire on Kinzhal further than 40-miles, than I can only suggest attempting to artificially work around that (with a boost to radar variables or some other DCS trickery) to emulate real-world evidence rather than accept DCS limitations. If this video was an accurate depiction of the maximum engagement range of Patriot versus Kinzhal, then absolutely the Patriot would have failed many, many times by now, not even getting off the minimum number of launches (2x4) before the attack concludes.
Concerning Kinzhal being used and shot down in general, Russia claims they used it, Ukraine and the US claim they've shot 5/6 down on one night alone (with additional missiles during other attacks) and I believe concensus has landed at absolutely they're being used and they are being defeated rather consistently by Patriot.
I'm just trying to help, as always, but I know DCS limits everything.
11:25 yes, you can see a meteorite glowing in the atmosphere in daylight. Had that happen a few years back randomly. Would be similar with hypersonic missiles
That's awesome! I love watching meteor showers and would love to see one during the day. The difference with kinzal is it's moving 1-2 km/s where meteors are moving 10s of km/s. The Chelyabinsk meteor was estimated moving around 30-40 km/s, IIRC.
Launch these from far away so that kinzhal can get the velocity and reach Mach 9. Another thing about patriot is it's radar is pointed towards one direction like point defence not like Russian air defences doing area defence which means anything from other odd angles will not be intercepted
Thats why batteries are posed towards known threat areas. Also, the radar isnt stuck facing the direction of its trailer, its able to fully rotate 360 degrees.
My understanding (completely unconfirmed) is that they were shooting at the patriot system itself, thus the incoming stayed in the same piece of sky, providing a very easy targeting solution.
Don't recall where I heard that, but it would make sense.
Possibly Habitual Line-Crosser. He's a patriot system operator IRL and made a lot of videos about the subject. Been blowing up lately with his meme videos
given that shrapnel/debris hit one of the launchers, almost certainly had to be the system itself, or they were aiming for a children's hospital and missed which is more typical of Russia
@@override367 ouch 🤣
@@override367 actually the patriot was destroyed an if you wanna talk about hospitals being targeted ..look up patrick lancaster go back 9 years an see who was shelling who for almost an entire decade..also ukrainian neo nazis were using civilian buildings including hospitals ..hear what the people on the ground say before you just shoot out fairytales ..an you wanna talk about war crimes look at the 600,000+ childfren killed by the US an NATO in the middle east , a father an his 9 year old son gunned down by an american apache with actual footage an is just 1 reason they have Julian assange locked up in a super max prison in the UK ..over 1000 syrian cilvilians bull dozed into concrete to hide those bodies an lets talk about the well over 1 million civilians killed over there ..swerar some of you are just arrogant an ignorant when it comes to the war crimes the US get away with but whiune an cry when someone else does it hypocrites
@@override367 don't be stupid.
Given the advances regarding Radio Frequency Sensor On-Chip (RFSoC) integration, and the push for Sensor Open Systems Architecture compliance across all military aerospace electronics designers, a generational leap in both radar and missile technology has been expected for some time. This event, and others less public, have made clear to several key industry leaders that this leap has definitely come. It's only going to become more interesting!
The damaged part of that Patriot unit was fixed within an hour of the damage being found
Would love to see more air defense battles,
Now it we assume impact from the hypersonic missiles is closer to 3.5-4.5 mach, I bet PAC-3 missiles hit them 100% of the time.
Well they didn't get all of them. There's video of a hit, but Russia probably fired far more than they claim to and each missile has like have a dozen penetration aids.
In theory they could get 100% Pk but with humans as operators 100% Pk is impossible, same with russian S-400 just patriot crews are far better
@@gibbo_303 Lol I know, I’m talking about in the game.
@@92HazelMocha I’m speaking about in the game… in reality both the hypersonic and Patriot systems are most likely better than portrayed in the game.
@@888000777666 Call me a cynic, but I think they're probably both worse lol. Mainly because of my terrible experience with Javelins.
Could you make a US vs Britain scenario using both British carriers plus good escort against an American carrier strike group?
Having both British carriers would be a bit redundant, as there are only 24 F-35s in British stocks which can fit in one ship. Though, it would improve the launch rate a little...
Loved the video @Grim Reapers! Can't wait for the next video man! I think the Patriot Launchers are a bit too close together the way that they are usually set up. I don't think I've ever seen any pictures of the Missile batteries like that unless they're testing newer Missiles out in the United States. Is there a way where they can be a Bit more Spread out and maybe even in cover in DCS or is that just another Core Game Issue?
Also, Would love to see more World War Two Assets in DCS at some point! I really enjoy seeing the Aircraft, Warships, Transport Ships, Landing Craft, Vehicles and Equipment from World War Two in DCS but I feel like there's not enough coverage of the Assets Pack.
These launchers are way too close together, the side blast from one firing would damage at least 2 other launchers. Minimum safe distance from the back blast is 90 meters and from the side blast is 20 meters. They are also way too close to the radar, 120 meters minimum
Cap, it was also claimed that six more Kinzhals were shot down a couple of days later after that first claimed Kinzhal shooting down.
The ukrainians always shoot down 200 out of 20 fired Russian missiles what a comedy show
This why we need more research into laser based systems.
Kinzhal terminal speed is about mach3. Certainly non mach6 or it would melt. Nothing can go at that speed in the troposphere without melting. The hypersonic speed can be reached only in the stratosphere due to the lower density of the air, and even then the surface reaches hundreds of degrees Celsius due to air’s attrition.
According to chatgpt with some assumptions: 108.2KN of force to push a rocket mach 3 at 15000 feet. That would have melted the all titanium SR-71. I'm sure you're right. I can't imagine the brakes aren't slammed on below 30k feet. Again with some ballpark assumptions chatgpt says 0.5 drag coefficient on a 500kg missile going mach 4.5 at 15000 feet would generate about 18.2M BTU/min and steel melts at a constant 850 BTU 1kg of steel can be melted. I'm not sure how fast the heat is dissipated but I would be worried it was at least be in the structural failure window and risk being torn apart. Any over mach 3 isn't going to be using regular steel or aluminum to be built.
@@ClericChris you would see them glowing white hot in the sky before impact if they were traveling anywhere near mach 6, big sonic boom, extremely different explosion and damage..
Idk it's weird there's no video of these multiple hypersonic missiles traveling at night, not saying they're not hypersonic but perhaps just not mach 6+
@@ClericChris Aovid ChatGPT lol, if it's mach 3.5 at 15000feet it's going to impact within seconds because it's in a parabolic arc. At that altitude M3.5 is roughly 2200kts, 15000 feet is roughly 3 miles up, which means it takes about 2 seconds for the object to impact the ground. It's not going to melt that fast.
the nose cone could be made from tungsten or some other highly heat resistant alloy, APFSDS rounds don't melt and they are hypersonic at sea level.
Even if the nose cone began to melt, it’s a single use missile, so melting nose cones become essentially a non issue
Space shuttles re-entering the atmosphere do leave trails (and they were engines off), so I suspect anything going hypersonic would too.
... however, that might be the ablative tiles burning away, I mean, that is what they're designed to do.
STS did not use ablative shielding.
Space Shuttles re-enter at something like Mach 22-23. Interestingly, Scott Manley recently made a video about the fastest shuttle re-entry.
This was very impression!
Can either of you give more information around the altitude problem in DCS. It comes up a lot with talking about missiles. Just curious.
For modders there seems to be a ‘hard’ ceiling, where the missile either won’t fly, or if it does it goes sub orbital 😂 if I remember from previous explanations. Of course a modded will know more 🧐😂
ED completely locked modders out of most important game functions and encrypted the files so we can't even just substitute our own versions.
Here are some of the biggest issues :
Very low tickrate + control systems don't (and core-game can't) properly compensate for the variable sample time steps (e.g. even the z-transform of an LTI system will show how much variation in closed loop response different dt values can cause if you just use a constant numerical gain without compensation.)
Ancient one-dimentional control loops that still use things like PID controllers and Root locus design.
This, plus the lack of path planning and optimisation blocks handing off commands to a properly designed autopilot, results in missiles not even considering altitude, terrain, nor the target type and (if mobile) its recent trajectory, etc.
The *ONLY* dimension that *ALL* DCS missile control systems use is the angle between the missile's flight vector and the LOS to the target. More specifically, the missile is commanded to minimize the time derivative of that angle (called LOS rate) by nothing more than a glorified PID controller. The only difference between this and the IRL missile control used on the very first heat-seeking missiles (pre-Vietnam), is that the proportionality constant has a few (usually around 4-5) different values that it can take depending on the slant range to target. *THAT'S ALL!*
TL;DR: The most advanced active radar-guided missiles act almost identically to old rear-quarter heatseekers, except that they are *required* to warn their targets (give a totally made-up RWR warning) at a *hardcoded* 10nm distance, just so that human players and the braindead AI have an almost 100% godlike chance of "dodging" (with a simple split-S) and don't have to experience the frustration of realistic missile terminal behavior. Even with 90's technology, the enemy only gets a warning if the missile needs to activate its own radar, and if the launching platform was able to maintain lock the whole time, this only happens in the last few 100's of milliseconds before impact.
No, in DCS these missiles will run straight into the ground, don't make any use of the trackfile that their launching platform has built up (other than to set a GOTO once in a while) and they don't calculate the most efficient route to target in 3D-space (thus forcing them to artificially loft and come back down hurts their Pk, even though they have much more endgame energy, because their LOS angle gets larger and they are no longer in the same horizontal plane as the target, which is all that their simple control system can cope with).
Therefore missiles are artificially "forced" to loft by hardcoding overrides to the default 1D control system, and since modders are locked out of all of these core functionality, we can't (legally) fix it or even just substitute our own proper control logic to fix things. However, the steep descending trajectory then causes them to loose lock or simply breaks their guidance code such that they either pull max G *away* from the target or just go into space.
To exhaust the entire ammunition load of the battery, one 9-S-7760 missile of the "Dagger" complex and six 9B899 decoys fired by it were enough, which PATRIOT "successfully" intercepted, missing a real missile. And if some kind of subsonic cruise missiles and UAVs were used there, then a maximum of a few pieces and they flew up after the radar was disabled and the ammunition load was used up.
@@clenbuterol4989 wrong chat. Yer wasting yer breath!
@@clenbuterol4989 No, just *no*
take into account how likely a second volley is coming or 3rd or 4 th
Love you videos I got to say one thing in the report from Ukraine it said that Russia launch multiple missiles and supersonic missiles and drones combined
Wouldn’t the Backfire itself get shot down at that kind of range?
I never thought that I would be "lucky" to witness such a thing. But, I got to see the work of the "Patriots" IRL. It was exciting. I might even say "beautiful". But it's still damn scary.
From experience is it’s both cool asf and worry some
A projectile moving at hypersonic speed would have to deal with shockwaves, heat and drag while in flight but also while maneuverings.
US Doctrine says to fire 2 missiles vs the target.
On a side note: is it possible for you guys to shoot the Kh-47 Khinzal (AS-24 Killjoy) at a further range like around 200 nm for a more realistic test and spread out the GBAD system a bit more. FYI: a PATRIOT battery is usually around 8 launchers.
Can any fighter carry 4 kinshal missiles? I fucking doubt it!!
Good thing then that Tu22 isn't a fighter
The Tu-22 is more of a tactical bomber.
I believe they can carry 6 but perhaps I'm thinking of the Tu-160 which can carry 8.
Mig-31 carries only one
Also, let's not forget that NOBODY who ever said that the Patriot system was "perfect" actually USED the Patriot system. Everyone who has used it will tell you right away that it is "better than most", but that doesn't mean that it can't be beaten by incoming missiles. Especially when you consider that it was originally designed to take down PLANES/HELICOPTERS, not missiles. It just happened that it could do that better than anything available at the time, and has been improved over the years in various ways to do even better.
ALSO, DSC has it's own limitations. So there should be a slight "grain of salt" using it to determine Real-World applications, since a lot of the information they use from programming is either "out of date" data, or "unknown" due to being classified.
Even so, a pretty good showing against something that has been hailed as "unstoppable" by some, even if there is a bit of wiggle-room as far as accuracy of performance on both sides.
I'll comment here the same thing I commented last time you did this: Kinzhal cannot fly like a LASER straight at its target at hypersonic speed. It will have to take a high-altitude ballistic trajectory to achieve anything like Mach 6 at impact (I'm skeptical that it could ever achieve this kind of impact velocity.) That would give Patriot much more time to react, and using standard doctrine of two PAC-3 missiles per target, I would be confident in real life Patriot could fairly easily defend a single building like this (although it would be quite expensive.)
I don't know much about Kinzhal navigation system, but it almost certainly is not using GPS or any optically-based navigation (if it is actually traveling through atmosphere at hypersonic speed, which I am skeptical of), which implies an inertial guidance system that may date back to the (?)1980s when the missile was developed... My point being that I have my doubts as to whether it could hit a building-sized target, irrespective of the Patriot site defending said target.
From my interpretation of the specs it can only get mach 6 in the extreme heights of the stratosphere and has to slow down or the plasma formed would melt it.
I think Ukrainians launch more than 2, at least 3.
From what they said in the video the game engine seems to not be able to model that kind of flight path. So they're doing the best with what they've got.
Russia are 20 year behind, they cant even make a CPU better that the pentium3.. So why should they be able to do a missile that actually works ???!
Russians make good missiles, just not as good as their propaganda says they are.
Russia claims the KH-47M2 Kinzhal has a range of up to 2000km and a speed of Mach 10 - however, satellite tracking of both test and active operational launches suggest the real speed is around is around Mach 4, so at the lower end of hypersonic flight, further, the range is believed to be around 1200km at best, although the longest reported track is less than 800km.
A missile at this speed is not as hard to intercept as you may think, many missle defence systems are able to intecept large artillery shells all the way up to aircraft - as long as the missile guidance has a good solution, the intercepting missile only need to be able to meet the incoming missile. As the SAM has a head that is a shrapnel charge, it only needs to be reasionably close for a small number of shrapnell fragments to impact the missle to do immense damage due to the kinetic energy of the impacts.
The satellite tracks of those used in Ukraine were launched about 250km from the impact site - this would give plenty of time for a 3D image of the battle space from carious sensor systems to plot a probable projectile path and allow interception.
Remember, the Serbs used a WWII era German radar to approximate the position of an F117 and shoot it down during the Balkan conflict....If man can make it - another can break it.
"Remember, the Serbs used a WWII era German radar to approximate the position of an F117 and shoot it down during the Balkan conflict....If man can make it - another can break it."
What really killed the F-117 was a two-man outfit from Cambridge with a three suitcase (four if you count the laptop) in-the-field passive aircraft detection system (looking for moving holes in background radio clutter) - the company (was) disappeared overnight and all online presence of them deleted after the F-177A was brought down - they had to go further afield for customers after the MoD rejected them - and the rest is (not!) history. I hope the team ended up working for BAe rather than pushing up daisies! The widely spread account of this operation is a false story - still, it made the commander famous and wealthy. And the Serbs in the field did an amazing job of translating the co-ordinates into something their systems understood.
Lesson of this video. When hard to cope with reality, switch to movies and video games, it helps. 😂
Why didn't rhe Patriot battery engage the Backfire?
It helps when you factor in U.S. intelligence and data link. .
NATO has AWACs on deployment at all times just outside of the russian Border. It can detect and relay missile launches from Russia only a few seconds after they've been launched.
That data is then transmitted to the Patriots, which have all the time in the world to gather a firing solution, and take out the threat at max range.
Did they have those AWACS when Sadam was launching Scuds?
@@limanac111Radar technology in Sadam's time was massively inferior to today's.
Not sure what the point of that question in.
The major difference between the simulations and what happened in the actual scenario is that the Patriot missile system was the target, not another building. When the Patriot is the target, it functions better due to easier calculations for it's missiles and thus has a higher pk ratio.
and that is of course called rationalizing in order to back up yet another outrageous LIE coming from the Ukraine leaders LOL
seems to me hitting a kinzal with a patrioit would be like going to the drag strip, standing at the finish line, and trying to hit a dragster going 300 MPH with a slingshot. if you are beside the track, it would be next to impossible. if you are standing in the middle of the track, very easy. and the closer to the middle of the track you are, so you don't get run over, the higher the likelyhood of a hit you have.
Exactly. That’s why the Patriot has the highest probability of kill when it itself is the target.
works even better when you are on the track with the missile headed directly at you
Cap, Fins aren't what they used to be...
Most reports I have is that the patriots fired all there missles, but the missles did hit their targets and blew up 2 of the 30 patriot sights, which is stated by the Ukrainian defense Minister
Love the vid ...one problem I see here is you are playing an optimal scenario for patriots missiles most likely would not be heads on unless there striking sam site. love to see if the patriot battery would have to rotate to line up n fire if it can do better can it do that fast enough ? and what if the patriot site was at 90degs to the kinsal I doubt u could even get one hit in
You may be right, but let's assume that it's a high value target and the path of the Tu-22 is known, or predictable? You're probably right that it is too conveniently oriented, but it's possible they have the Tu-22 direction as a known variable before it launches.
As an additional comment - you would see vapour trails from hypersonic aircraft or missiles in the lower atmosphere as their exhaust plume causes condensation of water onto fuel particals in the exhaust stream - the missiles will heat, they will likely get to about 200°C on the nose cone but not hot enough to cause a visible glow, even at night. Missles at this speed will, to the eye, appear like sound waves - they are travelling so fast that the missle will be ahead of the visible trail behind it so you would never, or rarfely, see the missle before impact.
With regards the meteor entering the atmosphere - the trail you see is a combination of ionised atmospheric particles, ionised vaporised material from the object and chemicl reactions caused by the frictional heating of the whole object as it barrels into the atmosphere at anything from 20km/s (44,500mph) -120km/s (268,450mph) depending on its velocity and orbit in relation to Earth. The kinetic energy on impact is what does the damage if it survives to the ground - the material the object is made from determines how large it needs to be for it to impact the ground at crater forming velocities - so although slowed by the atmoshere, it still needs a speed in excess of 8km/s (17,800mph) to form an ejector type crater (these are up to 20 times the of the impacting object) as oppose to an inert impacting crater (not much wider that the impactor - similar to what a training bomb would make on the ground)
Isn't the Patriot system supposed to ripple fire two missiles pr target to increase pk?
Depends on the selected shot doctrine
But in general-yes. I believe that’s the default way of engaging a target (you either have another shot if you miss or you can hit the warhead section one more time to make sure it is completely destroyed and not just damaged)
@Max there isn't really a "default" setting, you have to posture your system and configure the shot doctrine in order to use the system for an engagement, None of which is unclassified
@@ROTNReaper True. I was going off of an example engagement described on Patriot’s Wikipedia page.
Oh lol yeah Wikipedia has a long of good and bad information
In what world are these being fired from 45mi away?
It's possible only if your system needs advertisement to not embarrasse even more.
And with standart supersonic balistic missiles? Guess same result. Is there part where manuevering gives advantage for kindzal?
Yep
To be fair, Russia combines Khinzal with many drones and Kalibr cruise missiles.
this exercise was great. the funky thing about all this, we know this happened in real life, it's been confirmed that that patriot system did knock down the missiles. but I'm not 100% that we can replicate the exact conditions that allowed that to happen. do we even know if the patriot system is even designed to track and hit hypersonic missiles?
Patriot PAC3 was designed to do exactly this.
It’s not even a modern hypersonic missle. Its an air launched iskander that’s why it can reach out to 1500km but it’s just a ballistic missle at the end of the day. it’s basically a medium ballistic missle that is an air launched variant of a short range one.
Lmfao where has it been "confirmed"? The Ukrainians themselves denied it when those fake images were first circling. You clowns are something else.
What could probably not be simulated was the warhead of the patriot. Normally it's a shrapnel warhead made to destroy aircraft so what could the effects of that be on the kinzhal?
If I'm not mistaken the PAC-3 is hit to kill, the PAC-2 is a directed frag warhead that selects the direction of the target in respect to the missile. Instead of launching a spherical cloud of shrapnel, it's more of a directed shotgun blast to increase damage against missiles
It's impossible for the patriot to shoot down the kinzhal. Just physically impossible. The kinzhal is not just hypersonic. It's also highly maneuverable at all stages of flight. The patriot simply has no way of intercepting it.
Highly maneuverable at hypersonic speeds means a turn radius the size of Ohio.
It's perfectly possible to intercept anything as long as it's coming to you. The attacker's speed works in your favor. Come on, this is DCS, you should understand closure rate.
@@ChucksSEADnDEAD even a slight turn at those speeds is a whole new kind of problem to solve for a missile defence system. It is indeed best case scenario if the missile is coming straight towards you, but the kinzhal comes crookedly towards you.
@@myronplatte8354 The problem is, you kind of know where the targets are. So the ingress paths become obvious once the turn begins. Your opponent isn't aiming for an entire country. If you know the missile will arrive in Kiev, your computers are plotting the intercept as the curve is being drawn.
Do you know what local linearization is? Basically at any point of a curve equation you can calculate an approximation to that curve that is a straight line. It's coming crooked? Doesn't matter, in a tight enough time scale that's just a straight line anyway and the missile can be directed to that predicted point, then the impact calculated with a finer tuning.
@@ChucksSEADnDEAD The patriot system has the capability to do that kid of calculation that quickly?
Ukraine does not have PAC-3 MSE to the best of what we know, they have the older PAC-3 CRI.
Kinzhal is equipped with 6 penetration aids/decoys ejected from around the rocket nozzle.
Have you seen the video of the air defence battery on the night of the attack in Kiev? I presume at least some of the ~30 missiles launched were from the Patriot battery. Then there was a huge explosion on the ground nearby.
I’m pretty sure DCS doesn’t have the capability to model any of those kind of penetration aids so there isn’t much to do about those things in the sim.
the explosion on the ground was around 6 minutes after the patriots fired, so maybe 2 other missiles from RU or gerans after the patriot ran out of interceptors
I think you may be confusing the Kinzhal for the Iskander. Penetration aids like decoys are really only a feature of ballistic missile, released while the missile is at extremely high altitude. If you launched a decoy from a Kinzhal, the hypersonic drag would just decelerate it. It would be like throwing beachballs out of a ferrari.
Edit: I guess most hypersonic weapons are also ballistic, so you could do it. I still don't think the Kinzhal has any decoys.
@@Vsor As far as I know, the kinzhal is an air-launched adaptation of the iskander, and newer versions of the iskander definitely have decoys (they look like fat white obtusely pointed cylinders with a flanged bakelite tail cone), and Russian sources have stated the kinzhal has decoys, and I find that claim highly plausible.
I believe the real Patriot system has roughly a 95% PK.
What if the units were spread out??
Do the kinzhal system have decoys?
In real life, yes, bit not in game.
The air pressure in front of the missile heats the air up so much the it changes state from a gas to plasma and it glows. tHAT IS MY UNDERSTANDING.
"Trust me bro we intercepted 6 Khinzals. Also the system was damaged, but only a little, because we 100% intercepted all the missiles. No, we won't provide any evidence."
I think Ukrainians just don't want Russians to be sure that their Wunderwaffe is a Cinderella story
@@alukret you're telling me that now they have scruples parading around any evidence that would discredit one of their superweapons? What about their allegedly first "shootdown" where they made a photoshoot with something they claimed to be a Khinzal? I'm sure that if they managed to shoot down **6** of them they would have no problem finding enough evidence to humiliate Russia again no?
@@alukret Then you can easily explain to us why, after this attack, more than 10 specialists who worked on the "Dagger" were arrested?
@@ihorvoloshyn425 because their speed is mach 4, not mach 10
More like "Trust me bro"
By Kremlin.
If you want to know what the Patriot is capable of, ask Habitual Linecrosser.. he knows more than anyone.. it's his job.. he trains people on air defense
"i can only believe what i see in the press" you unfortunate man
Probably only watches BBC
is it a mod? where is it?
I think one solution is to find a way to take out the Tu-22 launch aircraft. I realize that this is easy to say on the internet, and would require devoting tremendous resources, some of which Ukraine likely doesn’t yet possess.
Perhaps the real value of a KH-47 is as a resource-diverter, like the BGM-109G GLCM, in which case Ukraine shouldn’t fall for the bait.
It would be GREAT if he can model in the THAAD missiles. Since this is what THAAD is meant for.
Good question. Hypersonic might look like a meteor?
they have made missiles which deploy decoys
speaking of the Space Shuttle, a hypersonic missile would probably look like a reentry of a Shuttle than a meteor….
There are a couple things I know of which can improve your simulation even further:
1) AFR is launching these missiles far back inside Russian territory such that they don't risk their Mig-31s and Tu-22Ms. This means the missiles would be off burn and slowing down for a good bit longer.
2) AFR says it's intended target was the Patriot system itself. Patriot is meant to be co-located with whatever it is protecting, so if you shoot a missile directly at the Patriot PAC3 you're actually doing it a huge favor. Doctrinally the launchers would be dispersed up to 10km away from each other which makes co-location easier.
There are a couple channels I can recommend: "Habitual Linecrosser" who operated Patriot systems for 10+ years, and "Sandboxx" who has a really good breakdown about the confusion surrounding what was shot down, i.e. Khinzal v dumb bomb.
(Not really relevant to the simulation, but the Iskander-K
variant is a subsonic cruise missile that maneuvers as you described.)
Thanks for the great video and all the effort you put into simulating this event!
I know you want to show us what happens if the specs are at their maximum reported stats, but we are talking about russia here and specifically weapons that are not even replicated by the USA.
Hypersonic weapons need to be able to locate their target and identify it. Sure the kinzhal very likely will travel for a lot of its trajactory at over mach 5. But it needs to slow down at the end for target identification. This cannot happen at mach 5. Since A: identification of target simply needs time. B: (Apoint you guys mentioned, but it needs to be mentioned and expressed for all to see) A plasma sheath occurs at this altitude and speed. These things are blackout of all sensor vision and communication. The vehicle is blind at this point. These blackouts happen at specific speeds depending on altitude. The higher the vehicle the faster it can be without this happening. But the speed i've heared and read about for the last phase of the trajactory seem to suggest around Mach 5. The kinzhal can therefore only fly at around Mach 4 at the point when it matters for the patriots to shoot them down.
Also love what you guys are doing. Your channel has given me a far greater understanding of how Air combat works in the modern day and why technology is so important in this field. Keep up the great work:)
Ohh btw they used the PAC 3 CRI not MSE version
Great channel guys, apparently this missile is a lie it’s not hyper sonic the 3 inventors of this missile have been arrested for treason, can remember the Sam name but it’s the same missile apparently??
But, it is? What do you people listen to?
@@rebelliousfew its hypersonic in the same sense as the 60's sprint missiles which was even faster (mach 24), we should call every ballistic missile a hypersonic misssile because russia said so? modern hypersonic missile has very different meaning in the US
@@ashblythe9598 That is why it's quasi-ballistic missile, not a ballistic and this makes it different. Maneuvering on such speeds is not a common thing yet.
The whole antiair system look in the same direction. ... huh!? That's not how the world works.
Highly highly highly highly highly UNLIKELY.
The Patriot Defense System is designed as a last line of defense, the way BOFORS were used 80yrs ago.