Polls: Rishi Sunak really could lose his seat | Election 2024 | The New Statesman
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- Опубліковано 26 чер 2024
- The Prime Minister “is a margin of error away from defeat” in his own constituency, says Ben Walker.
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By campaigning in previously “safe” Conservative seats Rishi Sunak has shown he believes the polls, which predict a massive defeat for the Tories.
Ben Walker and Freddie Hayward join Hannah Barnes on the New Statesman podcast to discuss whether Rishi Sunak himself could be the “Portillo moment” of 2024.
Ben also reveals polling analysis on whether Jeremy Corbyn will win in Islington North, and if the Greens can take Bristol from Labour.
Read more: Rishi Sunak’s campaign tour shows he is nervous sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/06...
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Watch next: Nigel Farage has lost the right - Andrew Marr ua-cam.com/video/YBYW3khd5ro/v-deo.html
No he hasn't, you just want us to think so, Legacy Media has spun what Farage said about Putin, understanding your enemy, understanding how they will spin events back home and use for justification, not underestimating your enemy and recognising their abilities is NOT supporting them or justifying their actions.
The Establishment Uniparty is sh1tting itself, we see you.
Don't shout at the start!!
The Right WHAT? You taunt him and the Reform Party for being far right! You sound lost, maybe journalism is too difficult a career for your intellect?
Andrew Marr has lost the plot
@@Clare0116 Far-right is still on the right. It's just further on the right of the political spectrum.
You forget he WANTS to lose his seat. Probably even has a bet on it.
They are betting on Zero Seats
Means he can move to California sooner. He knows he’ll be sacked after the election and he’s claimed he’ll see out the next 5 year term as a backbencher but lots of us are sceptical.
@@glyngreen538Foreigners out!
Can we talk about The Election Campaign (traditionally only two weeks), which has been elongated so that The Media can make even more money from they're american tourists), and american rourists only?
😅
The more I see of Sunak, the more I dislike him. He is a spoilt privileged schoolboy who earned his money betting against this country as a hedge fund manager and bears responsibility for the collapse of Royal Bank of Scotland. Vote him out!
He's a Tory. They're a bunch of chancers these days, the days of the grandees are long gone.
He has calculated the deaths in utterly desperate, horrible circumstances of probably about 100k (further) disabled people against holding onto a few votes. “Insert pejorative term” does not come close to covering it. At the risk of skirting close to godwin’s law, have a look at the numbers of disabled people who’s deaths (never mind survivors suffering) have been attributed DIRECTLY to tory policies and their “hostile environment”/punitive attitude/scapegoating to the vulnerable. And compare that to the number of disabled euthenised in 1930s40s germany. Prepare to be shocked.
And it’s not just the cuts, it’s the gaslighting that is done to the disabled claimants…..basically telling people that simply can’t support them selves that they are simply workshy. Encouraging a situation where DRs are threatened for signing people off, assessors simply lie or ignore evidence…..etc etc. it’s like grabbing someones ha d and for cing them to stab themself with it while saying “why are you stabbing yourself”. The gaslighting element is the cruelest part, and wouldn’t surprise me if it was what lead to the extremely high tendency for suicide. By now…..the data is clear (although release was heavily opposed by the Tory govt) so you have an uphill struggle to convince me it is not by design.
He has calculated the end of the lives in utterly desperate, horrible circumstances of probably about 100k (further) disabled people against holding onto a few votes. “Insert pejorative term” does not come close to covering it. At the risk of skirting close to godwin’s law, have a look at the numbers of disabled people who (never mind survivors suffering) have been attributed DIRECTLY to tory policies and their “hostile environment”/punitive attitude/scapegoating to the vulnerable. And compare that to the number of disabled dealt with in 1930s40s germany. Prepare to be shocked.
At worst he was a good finance Minister's assistant, at best an utter dingus of a PM
I hope Sunak loses his seat
Beer starmer awful man
DONT threaten US with a GOOD TIME!! 😊😊 After 14 years of DESPICABLE Tories .....NOT sure could Handle it!
hes had to go with out sky tv and when the ice cream man came his mum always told him its choc ices in the freezer hes had hard life
As an Indian I used to think same .
@@michaelfoy do t be stupid they haven't been bad for 14 years
Why havent wonderful labour git on.because they were unelectable and still are in my opinion can't trust starmer. Rishi has said he wlbsn gender drugs for children and ban sex education for under 9s.i will vote for him. Starmer will not protect our children . Will hurt the motorist and will be terrible prime .
Minister. I ca t vote for a party that throws cement and I can't vote for party that wants to lower wome s rights a d I hate their policies of envy
Y hate the tory party and I hate the la our party.
Rishi Sunak earnt money as a hedge fund manager betting against his country. He is singularly ill placed to condemn other Tory MPs for betting against their party.
I’m genuinely concerned that Count Binface is going to split the anti-Sunak vote.
WTF has happened to the world? 😂😂
Yeah same! If it’s close a tiny amount of votes for Binface could be the difference between a loss or win for Rishi.
Don't matter the WHOLE of UK, is controlled, captured, and $cripted out of Tel Aviv 😮😊
I can only hope that more tories who are deeply uncomfortable with the party, but see voting as a duty, can make an “obvious” protest vote.
Binface should’ve just stepped out of the race in there, it’d be the best thing he could do
I'd be more amused if all other party's stepped out leaving a head to head between rishi and count binface for the seat.
He's already is an unelected prime minister!
New to the neighborhood? ALL prime ministers are 'unelected' - PM are selected by a majority of elected MPs.
He was elected by MPs in the party who were also elected. Remember the MPs were voted in to represent the constituencies’ views and apparently landed on Sunak.
Sunak is an elected MP and was elected into the position of PM.
If you're going to take a pop at him make it something worthwhile, for example his complicity in a genocide or refusal to try and get the PPE fraudsters to refund the UK tax payer.
For the people in the replies to this comment saying he was elected. He quite clearly wasn't. He ran unopposed after an 18 person committee (1922 Committee) changed the rules on to prevent other candidates from achieving the watermark for selection. Due to this mechanism he was automatically selected with no vote and therefore no election. It was highly regarded that this was due to the fact that the party vote - which was denied due to their being only one nomination - would likely have went back to Boris at the time - something a minority in the parliamentary body of MPs wanted to avoid. So no. Definitely NOT an elected Prime Minister. To this day there are people in the Conservative party membership who feel disconnected from the process, and from Sunak who did not hold a (admittedly optional) confirmation vote. Hilariously the rules will almost certainly need to be changed again post election (if Sunak resigns / is kicked out) due to insufficient numbers of parliamentary members, meaning the last three conservative leaders will all have differing levels of provenance.
So it is. But you have to rely heavily on semantics to convince me that there's a democratic process at work. You allude to rules and processes. These were altered to achieve a partizan result. Elected unopposed.
Reading from the handbook doesn't lesson the charge that Sunak wasn't elected by the people of this country.
Rishi doesn’t care. He got what he care for. His family has made billions out of his short time in office.
How? Billions?!
@@methanedirigible In "intelligence" and fossil fuel contracts.
@@davidwebb4904 evidence that he _personally_ made billions from fossil fuel contracts?
@@methanedirigible Look who his families companies are. Then cross reference contracts awarded during his reign. Then add up the value of those contracts. Then cry that you didn’t study PolItic studies at college.
@@davidwebb4904Excellent. McPrice has made a bundle by stealing 'common land' from the monarchy. Do they teach you that (we got cops on our side too)!
He deserves to He paid £13000 for a pool in his constituency home whilst the local state school had to crowd fund to buy computers
State School?
Oh well, there you are!
Please God, make it happen
By the rivers of #Babylon, there we sat down, yea, we wept, when we remembered #Zion…
#Psalm 137:1
The first sitting Prime Minister to lose his seat? Many of us still remember the time when Arthur Balfour 1st Earl of Balfour lost his seat as Prime Minister in the 1906 general election. What a night that was! Of course the cheeky young journalists of today overlook that important moment in the history of this great country.
Balfour was the first leader of the Tories to lose his seat, but he'd resigned as PM a few weeks before the election was called, meaning that the Liberal leader, Henry Campbell Bannerman was technically PM at the time.
@@MrCaerbannog Yes - Bananaman was leader at the time. 🍌
Sorry, how old are you? 😂😂
Imagine that, and also Starmer losing his, as Labour win the election, bring it on I say.
@@camoTiarasdeluded
These photos are priceless , what a funny little man.
Sunak should be jailed for COVID corruption and appalling waste of taxpayers money
After Sir Beer Starmer, he pushed for longer and harder! And never even received a fine for the lunchtime drinks party.... But when you have friends in high places within the police! Nothing to see here.....
@@TheJon2442 Are you looking for a legal summons?
Keir's food delivery with one San Mig each was late at night when all places were closed and staff had done a ten hour shift.
Learn a little before spouting.
Rishi winning his seat would be ultra embarassing for Richmond Tories and the Tory party.
Sunak losing his seat isnt a true portillo moment as he has no influence on future of tory party direction. Portillo was tipped as a future leader and a surprise defeat. Sunak would just be a really nice surprise. Badenoch or Truss losing would be comparable.
Sunak's campaign "strategy" has been strange to say the least. Early in the campaign he visited Henley on Thames (where he was photobombed by the Lib Dems). Henley is as Tory as it gets. Previous MPs include Boris Johnson and Michael Heseltine. It's pointless for a Tory leader to visit places like that.
Oh God I do hope so
It would be an act of mercy for Sunak's electors to relieve him of the embarrassment of having to immediately resign his seat after the election.
BTW, here in Canada, we're quite used to both three-way splits and to Prime Ministers and Provincial Premiers losing their seats in general elections. Often, party leaders, senior ministers and star candidates headed for seats in Cabinet here actually prefer to stand in marginal seats precisely because they have no interest in being demoted to the opposition benches when they lose an election.
When you consider that the RishiBot only seems to open his mouth to change feet would you really want his ‘support’? More and more seem to want to pretend they’ve never heard of him.
No loss.
I enjoy the informed reporting of The New Statesman. As an American, it’s refreshing to see a newsy podcast that isn’t so ridiculously sensationalized as everything here is. Everyone on your podcasts are fantastic
Oh, and for sure, Freddie is definitely a keeper. 😉
Seriously? Your news must be like Bugs Bunny then.
@@kellypawsoh it is…Fox in mind
@@josephinebrevig8748 Ah, Fox. Darkside Muppet Show.
@@kellypaws, well I’d prefer you not denigrate Bugs Bunny - he and Daffy are pretty cool. 😀
@@brandonkepley8205 My apologies. Point taken.
If Corbyn had beaten Boris Johnson, this country would now be in considerably better shape than it is. Contrary to popular opinion ( largely the result of the right-wing media ) his policies were not "looney left," and would've been quite acceptable in any other European country with a left-leaning government. Corbyn was never the problem. The strangle-hold the Murdoch press/Daily Mail, etc. has on this country is the problem, and has been for far too long.
Corbyn /McDonnell wanted to take 10% of company profits on top of increased Corpn tax and 1/3 of the boards for non executive workers. What would they even say? How many would stay in the UK? This was all nuts
Corbyn was awful as a politician and very unpopular with the wider UK public. He effectively enabled more Tory governments and also Brexit by being anti EU. I’m leftwing and would prefer more leftwing Labour policies. Maybe a more competent left wing leader could have done better but Corbyn was a poor leader and personally the problem more so then the policies.
Corban was successfully demonised about " anti semitism.
Murdochs mouthpiece should be taken off air. Its all tripe. Sky arts? The ultimate oxymoron.
Oh, struth, yes! The Sun was like "Der Stürmer" in the run-up to '19's poll.
After 14 years they've reached the bottom of the barrel.
If Rishi sunak does win his seat, he should stay as Tory leader.
Remember, they've got another week to go!
Your statistician typically uses the expression “based off” which is an Americanism. In British English we should say “based on or based upon”. We have such a rich language and the British English version of it is the best, so we should all be alert to the anything that dilutes our own English For broadcasters in particular, proficient use of the language should be an aim and greatly helps to promote whichever version of English the broadcaster uses.
Ben talking about Yorkshire with such pride makes me so proud to be from Yorkshire too! Waiting on our devolved parliament and legal seccession from England !!
If he does, it´s not a Portillo moment, but a Balfour moment (cf. 1906).
But I thought that his seat had been redistricted in such a way that the Labour-leaning wards had been dumped on a neighboring seat, and a few hard-blue wards had been "happened to be included", so as to guarantee him re-election. My understanding is that the Tories would have to dip below 16% nationally before Richmond comes into play.
❌ Were you up for Portillo?
☑ Were you born for Balfour?
Very good analysis especially from Ben Walker, who displays detailed knowledge of many constituencies.
I really hope he does lose, this would be a ringing endorsement of how much the public disapprove of his and Tory politics. 😅😅😅
A friend of mine is the Labour candidate for Chester South and Eddisbury. Its starting to look good for Labour even there! Good luck Angeliki!
I'm sure friend is a lovely person, but I don't think the Labour party politicians have took on board that people are voting against the Tories, not for Labour. If the Labour party governs like they are secretly planning, then they'll be lucky to have more than one term.
@mikefish8226 exactly there is no love for labour, they are going to govern the same as the tories.
They are not offering change, its more of the same rubbish that doesn't work, it's why I believe the polls are massively underestimating the vote for reform
@@mikefish8226 I don't know what this "secret plan" you're talking about is. It must not be very secret.
@TheAegisClaw You obviously haven't been paying attention then. They have been very specific to name three taxes that they won't increase (despite the fact they've announced an increase in the scope of one of them). They intend to increase lots of other taxes. They will just increase other taxes once in government despite it not being in their manifesto. They are planning a load of other stuff that's not in their manifesto too.
@mikefish8226please tell - what are Labour secretly planning?
He's OK though 150 grand a year pension.... He should donate it to the NHS for life he doesn't need it but he won't because he's a greedy greedy man
If Labour wins... Oh my... I don't even wanna think what is gonna happen to UK
Years of chaos.
California Dreaming....🎶 🎵
I could see a longer term Liberal Democrat and Green coalition / merger working quite well. Look at the Teals in Australia as an example. The preservation of the Environment is a very strong through line between both parties; and indeed a LOT of one nation rural Tories. All of those factions tend to be socially liberal or at least tolerant. That sort of place is where you could easily find a Rory Stewart and would be a strong counterpoint to a Reform.
Regarding North Herefordshire, I was driving round there yestarday and saw a lot of Green party posters, absolutely none for anyone else.
There are certain places where tactical voting is absolutely essential to ensure that the Greens have representation.
If there was a Single Transferrable Vote System many would vote Green with Labour as the second option so that the vote may not be 'wasted'.
Then, as more people do the same, one day the Greens win on First Option.
I think you underestimate the number people nationally that still like Jeremy Corbyn.
RISHI SUNAK’S ACHIEVEMENTS IN FULL:
…
He wasn't that good.
His got to go .🦦
Live in the seat. Not voting for him. He won’t lose it.
Dead ppl vote in Northallerton, we know that.
I was in Waveney Valley earlier today. LOADS of Green signs there
Come on Richmond.
Its Wipeout to Help out.
That saves him the hassle of resigning from the Con leader and returning to California
I doubt if many will shed any tears........
Sunak voters please remove him from Parliament.
Dear UK people, Dont make him PM again.
I wonder what odds he could've got on that in February?
Just saying.
I would fucking love it if Niko won Rishi’s seat and started serving in Parliament, it’d be so fucking funny
Why would anyone vote for an MP who, as soon as his party loses the election, will fly off to California anyway?
Fingers crossed
It would be fascinating to get a group of greens from around the country and make them speak to each other. Because I get the feeling its currently the broadest Church in British politics with rural conservatives, young urban liberals and socialists and corbynites all there alongside die hard environmentalists.
Not much agreement in there
They are bricking it! So funny.😂
If it happens, we will rename it to the Sunak moment.
Whether he holds his seat or not is irrelevant. He will be off to California within months either way.
Please don't say he'll be moving to Montecito California.
Very Good
If Sunak loses (please dear Jesus), I'm looking forward to Laura Kunessberg on July 5th explaining that Sunak's defeat is really a Conservative triumph.
The important question is What's the name of Freddie's wallpaper pattern.
"Welcome to the jungle"
Found it - William Morris Owl & Willow
Liz, Boris… Hold my coat.
Good
After 14 years of misery, started by Cameron and Osborne put in number 10 by Clegg how can 1 in 5 of our population want more of the same?
Vote Reform.. It's time to fix this country.
Here in South West London ,since the election was called ,driving around I have yet to see a single Tory poster .
Hammersmith here. There’s a posh square with big townhouses nearby. Lots of Tory posters last time. This time: nothing.
Twickenham and Richmond have the usual Lib posters up but nothing from the other Parties
He needs to have a better idea of his own limitations and his inability to cover up his Insider Trading and Corruption.
Tories heading for a 'World Beating' loss... Oh, the irony...
if it was a straight fight between Sunak and Binface I wonder.....
Perhaps the other candidates' supporters should consider tactical voting.
I can’t care enough about what happens on election day. I’m only here to stare at Freddie and his chest hair :)
What Ben didn’t mention (unless I missed it) is that the Green campaigns in Bristol and Waveney are being assisted by the fact they’re being fought by the two party leaders. A higher profile never hurts when you’re gaining ground.
(The fact that Siân Berry, a several-times candidate for London mayor, is standing in Brighton Pavilion is working the same way.)
Ellie Chowns, the candidate in N Herefordshire, doesn’t have the same national profile, but she was MEP for the W Midlands prior to Brexit, so she’s not a complete unknown.
My intuition is that “higher profile” is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. I hadn't heard of Carla Denyer or the other one before the start of the campaign, and I still can't name the other one now.
Don’t think the Tories will do as badly as people make out Labour will get a healthy majority but won’t be surprised if it’s around 100 seats and I think the wipe out of the SNP will be overstated there is still a strong Indy feeling in Scotland and these people hate labour
I’d agree. I think there are a lot of shy Tories out there, who will still turn out. Or maybe I’m still traumatised by 1992.
Everything depends on how many Conservative and Labour Voters choose to take a gamble on Reform
They will be the king makers this election even if they only manage a handful of seats themselves
SUNAK WILL LOSE NOTHING ~~~ HE WILL WALK AWAY LAUGHING AFTER DRIVING BRITAIN EVEN FURTHER INTO ''THE PIT''.
We're all voting REFORM 🇬🇧🏴🏴🏴🇬🇧
Traitors used to lose their head !!
Vote reform reform reform
"...in that unfortunate position..."? His constituents might differ.
Sunak will be in sunny california smoking some bad ass weed next friday
Rishi's bags are packed ready to take up his USA citizenship
I hope so
And oh how we will laugh….the Tories are toast❤️
Sadly we will go from awful to totally abysmal.... When Liebour get the key No. 10!
Cry those tears deeply and profoundly.
Hip. Hip. Hooray! Vote for REFORM UK. We need our country back.
Back from where?
Freddy is so dreamy!! 🥰 🥰 🥰
No one deserves it more
He has broken it
The guy is beyond apauling. What he has done to disabled people to cover other deals gone wrong is beyond. Oh to have someone who actually wants to try save this country!.. Well it's probably beyond help now. Rich guy with no common sense given everything in life never worked for anything. Not what we need!!
The more I see of Sunak the less I like him. His lies proliferate, his answers obfuscate, and his behaviour in debate is both aggressive and discourteous. I would rejoice if he lost his seat. He deserves nothing less.
Who cares? Sunak doesn't care, he is going to the USA.
Unlikely this is clickbait
And why Sunak was made cut his own term, during which he could earn more voters? The only party which benefited from that is Labour party as people knew them already from their longterm advertisement more than even Sunak who is just for more than a year.
You all who advertise for Labour are mean and greedy people. I despise you.
He should loose a lot more than his seat vote reform
HE DOESN'T CARE.
He is in Stoke on Monday.....
Reform 20 seats is my prediction
Opinion poll says YES
Of course he will like his seat . No doubt. He is the only competitor to tgecworstvrver PM next to Liz Trust. He may succeed yo unseat her position
There is a lot of support for Corbyn beyond his constituency - it's not gone away. It can be seen in the support of other independent socialist candidates all over the country.
Even Corbyn didn’t lose his seat in 2019
ZERO seats for tories. ZERO
Thangam Debbonaire wouldn’t speak to Owen Jones when she was out campaigning in the streets of Bristol. Not the way to win votes, really.
there is nothing unfortunate about it, he's had it coming, ggod and proper.
Excuse me. UNFORTUNATELY FOR HIM But the rest is us it would be like Christmas yes
Sunak losing his seat .... what a sweet sweet moment that would be .
Sunak visiting safe seats doesn't mean polls are right. He doesn't know either
Oh please please
All the better - Fishi!
Rishi that good old Yorkshireman from Southampton, representing all the Asian descended billionaires in Richmond North Yorkshire, I remember when it was represented by a proper Yorkshireman, good people of Richmond vote this man out, it doesn't have to be labour, try an independent.