Ashley J. Tellis: Will India Take America’s Side Against China? | Foreign Affairs Interview
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- Опубліковано 14 чер 2024
- Foreign Affairs invites you to listen to its podcast, the Foreign Affairs Interview. This episode with Ashley J. Tellis was originally published on September 21, 2023.
Building closer ties with India has become a top priority for U.S. foreign policy. In June, the White House hosted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a lavish state dinner. The thinking is that India will be a key U.S. partner in its competition with China. But is Washington making the wrong assumptions about India? How far do the two countries’ interests diverge when it comes to Beijing?
Ashley Tellis has been one of the closest observers and shapers of the U.S.-Indian relationship. He served in senior positions in the U.S. embassy in New Delhi and on the National Security Council under President George W. Bush. Today, he is the Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
In an interview earlier this month, Tellis warned that Washington needs to be more clear-eyed about Indian interests-understanding that they do not always align with those of the United States.
Sources:
“America’s Bad Bet on India” by Ashley J. Tellis
www.foreignaffairs.com/india/...
“The India Dividend” by Robert D. Blackwill and Ashley J. Tellis
www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...
Every time the US raises concerns about India's internal problems in public it sends out a signal that it's not a trustworthy partner... So that always makes India to be wary of the US. Realistically the China is no greater a threat to India as the US is.
China is a much bigger threat. India has a long unsettled border with it and China has deeply entrenched interests in Pakistan.
doesn't seem like a realist position to take
USA needs to do this to maintain it's garb of righteousness. It does not much care about democracy or anything. Look at what's happening to Donald Trump.
Values??? What values????
US supported military dictatorship of Ayub Khan in 1960s. Then in 1971 they supported military dictator Yayah Khan and his g3nocide of Bengali people. Nixon hated india and Indira Gandhi. Then in 1980s US supported another military dictator Jia ul haq and Taliban.
After 9/11 US supported another military dictator Pe vez Musharaf in p@kistan..
It's so shameless that US think tanks now lie and pretend it never happened...
Absolute shameless Ness..
China actually pursued a friendly pro-business attitude for several decades starting with Deng and ending with 2nd phase Xi. India has already adopted a neutral, semi-arrogant attitude. If India's economy grew to anywhere near China's size - why would India nationalism, democratic pressures, culture, etc not making it even more belligerent, assertive, and/or arrogant than it is today? The US should learn that trying to balance out its enemies is in itself a failed strategy (see China), trying to "grow" India to counter China has as much chance of backfiring as it does of benefiting the US. On the India side they should try to maintain pure neutrality as long as possible; right now they are much more anti-China than makes sense since China has the capital, technology, talent, and manufacturing capacity to help India grow much faster than what the US can actually provide. The US is essentially a post-industrial nation with very limited infrastructure capabilities, which is what India actually needs for next 50 years.
I’m glad that Indo US partnership is based on shared interest & not values. “Shared Values” is just a geopolitical jargon used as a tool to demonise countries that don’t do US’s bidding. India is a large flourishing democracy of 1.4 billion people & we don’t need certificates from vested interest groups to prove it. Modi is doing a great job by being an ultra-realist & not putting all eggs into the US basket.
Americans are a diminishing power and the five eyes are a crippled set of players who are unimportqnt or lack the infrastructure and skillset to do anything. Americans need India as the pivot against Russia and China. Since India is making it clear that India will decide its foreign policies and priorities, America is courting Pakistan now - they approved funds for Pakistan this week, so Americans are at the old game of playing Pakistan against India.
Today the Americans said the canada india issue should be investigated. American policy will push away countries they need same as what happened with china, Iran, Saudi, France etc
I don't understand what values being referred. INDIAN constitution is same and better protections exists for minorities and poor than US.
Issue is US uses its institutions and NGOs to undermine Indian democracy. Use of Pannu to create unrest in India on a settled matter is one such example. Second one is use of USCFR that classify India as partly free on religious grounds despite atrocities on Hindus in every country like Pakistan Malaysia, Fiji
Common sense would tell anyone that India, just like any big country with a brilliant history and culture sees itself as a pole of the world, having ots own world view and set of interests. And India's record since 1947 confirms that.
Anyone with any sense should know that India's increasing wealth and power constraints every major power in the world.
Want India to do your bidding and line up with you against China? Even if India is willing to do it, the price they will ask for is so high you cannot afford it.
Help them get stronger quickly to constraint China? They will constraint China all right. But they will constraint the West as well. And you accelerate the march towards the post Western world.
France has always insisted on deciding what is best for it while still remaining as US ally in NATO. That is precisely what India is doing as strategic partner in QUAD. The QUAD must not undermine India’s close relationship with Russia & this relationship can be beneficial to the West also by reducing Russia’s total dependence on China which only strengthens Chinese hands.
With the Ukraine War consuming vast amounts of US military & financial resources, the US will face two-front constraints at a time when its European allies are also facing severe economic hardships due to Ukraine war & are unlikely to go full blast against China should China invade Taiwan.
The US needs to understand its own limitations. There was discussion on Wolfowitz Doctrine after collapse of Soviet Union where instead of unilateral US efforts there was consensus to strengthen regional friends to checkmate a hostile power posing serious threat to US interests.
Strategic cooperation becomes successful only when it is accompanied by mutually beneficial economic relations. QUAD must help India by shifting supply chains from China to India, access to front line technologies, increased FDI & technological up-gradation of its military. India’s strong capability along entire 3488 km long Indo-Tibetan border by providing 2nd front threat to China & by pinning down Chinese military can checkmate Chinese belligerence in the east.
However, India must be careful in developing strategic partnership with countries who play Machiavellian games by fanning & feeding extremists & separatists like Khalistanis to undermine India's territorial integrity & sovereignty under the garb of free & liberal values while seeking India's strategic support against communist China. Two QUAD countries Australia & Japan are linked through bilateral security treaties with the US. India stands out as an independent nuclear weapons power with large military that does not need the US treaty of mutual defense but can still provide good strength to QUAD.
Values are only a way to bend the hand of your allay to succumb to your needs. US does it with India and India does it with Bangladesh, SriLanka, Maldives etc.
This is a very old geopolitics game which was understood and written by thinkers like Chanakya. Unfortunate but it's true that India does not really have social thinkers who would shape the future of India keeping Indian interest at heart.
Interfering in India’s domestic affairs and raising unnecessary concerns is not a prudent approach when dealing with a proud and rising country like India. Based on this discussion it seems USA wants a junior partner who it can lecture from time to time on “values”.
On liberal values being pursued by India, I think one has to realise that with all the fault lines of diversity on several counts, the state of economic development & poverty, the threat it has faced on its territorial integrity from neighbours and terrorism throughout post independence period on the one hand, and that in most senses of the word it’s a very young democracy the people as well as leadership of India are not only sensitive but also edgy when it comes to fissiparous threats, internal or external. The culture is of liberalism, but it needs support for some time to gain confidence that the western democracies display, may be when the nation is as old as USA as a democracy, at least half the way on prosperity and little more secure things will be different.
The Liberal US forgets that Black women didn't have full voting rights until 1965. Almost 190 years after US independence, 18 years after Indian independence and 4 years before NASA landed man on moon. It wants India, which is a way more diverse country, to become liberal by it's standards in decades which it's society took 2 centuries to achieve. And that too much before India reaches a decent per capita.
There needs to be push back against these stupid expectations.
On the topic of values, the fact of the matter is India doesn't trust that Americans will hold on to their own values always, because they have innumerable times put their interests ahead of their values and done business with nasty autocrats instead of democracies. Nothing wrong in that approach. But when others follow that same approach then just be realist and accept it.
Addressing the concerns regarding Ashley Tellis' perceived role, it's essential to approach the topic with sensitivity and awareness of historical connotations. There seems to be a disconnect in U.S. foreign policy when actions like supplying F16s to Pakistan, potentially impacting India's security, are taken. Furthermore, when awards are distributed seemingly to influence Indian elections and the international narrative sometimes appears to favor a counter-Indian stance, it inevitably raises eyebrows in India. India, like any sovereign nation, has its interests and pride, and any perception of undermining its autonomy would naturally be met with resistance. The hope is for mutual respect and understanding in bilateral relations. Adding to this Ashley Tellis is a " Uncle Tom' of the 21st century.
Such amazing timing
The way Ashley puts forth a cogent yet nuanced narrative with utmost clarity is indeed overwhelming. He is the one who not only helped shape the unchartered territory of indo-us relations but also unflinchingly advocated a profound geo strategic alignment of the two powers, who for almost 5 decades had an unsteady relationship with bouts of cooperation and skepticism. Further his persuasive and at times instructive style is reflection of his true intellectual persona. My favourite international relations analyst who has his own unparalleled brand value partly fuelled by his relentless voracious multidisciplinary studies cutting across various geo ecomonic and geo political themes yet implying sound facets of realism. Ashley you are lucky to be paid for what you love to do. Wish i also get the same😊. Wish i could ever talk to you. Kudos!!
A great fan of yours sir.
Brilliant discussion
Tellis chose to ignore the elephant in the room: Bharat’s storied culture and Hindu revival that has been long overdue.
Bharat’s policy is simple and straightforward if you understand our Dharma
Glad I listened to this - new perspectives - as a fellow Asian.
Clear eyed, pertinent and "realist" analysis. Thank you.
Ashley Tellis has captured the situation correctly. China is too close and strong when it comes to India that the latter would as well as should avoid a direct conflict, today or a 100 years hence. Costs for both China and India will be too high in case of a hot war. USA doesn’t face that problem, it’s geographically quite far at least today. However, what USA must desire, as Ashley says is manage China, that can be done with both democracies coming closer, cooperating & supporting each other to the extent possible. A stronger India as such will constrain China becoming aggressive in India’s immediate as well as extended neighbourhood. For areas beyond that similar arrangement of strengthening nations in those areas could be undertaken collectively, and in that QUAD can play an important role. As all four nations plus a few more that can be added as we go along can continue to work on the relationship to resolve differences as they gain confidence. Besides, at a later date security dimension could emerge out of the closet. Meanwhile, the dragon can be kept guessing what lies behind the relationship. It already has been showing its nervousness about QUAD. Remember Chinese are not fools, they are quick learners and they have learnt to be realistic too.
Good discussion, however puzzles me, and guess many others when US refers itself about holding democratic values, contrary to its actions. US goes after own interests , sugarcoats as democratic values, liberal values and what not
Such a pleasure to listen to - very articulate and interesting phraseology.
Thankyou
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China and USA want the world divided neatly between them. Balance of power politics - everyone is very familiar with that model.
However, neither China nor USA are happy with India.
China wants to subjugate India.
USA wants India to be a junior ally.
India ignores both.
India sees this as an opportunity. It gives them access to western capital, military technology and key strategic agreements like NSG etc. They get a heavy weight in USA to pin down China in the Pacific. As a result, they can manage the Chinese on their borders.
They see a multilateral world in which no power is dominant.
That's incorrect. China does not want to subjugate India. India has little resources that China needs and it doesn't want more non-Han chinese people inside China. China is treating India in the same vein as the last 2,000 years - basically they aren't top of mind for China, which in itself is subconsciously irritating Indians. I would argue that it's bit of jealously because they want to "rise again" similar to China but is taking much longer with more difficulty.
What exactly are Indian values as distinct from generic Western values? Genuine question
Logically there is no reason why India should align with the US against China(C) together with Russia(R). These are my reasons:
1) India being a rising power has its own geo-political agenda and national interest.. It does not want to be a vassal state of the US, like Europe, Japan and South Korea. By aligning with C n R, it has the freedom to pursue its geo-political goals and also national interests. Both C and R also respect India as an equal partner. India's relationship with the US, no matter how close, will at most be a junior partner.
2) In this geo-political hybrid war wage by the US/CW(Collective West) against R n C, most of the countries of the Global South are more sympathetic towards the later as they pursue a strategy of win win relationship, economic development, peaceful co-existence and poverty alleviation; all of which are in congruence with the goals of the Global South. This contrast with the US n CW obsession in containing R n C, regime change and wars. The US n CW are waging a war against R n C because they are a threat to the former world hegemony. This is no secret because it has already been widely reported in the mainstream news media?
3) It is extremely difficult for India to break ties with Russia because historically the later has always been a close and reliable ally of India. Militarily India also has close links with Russia and the later is willing to share advanced militarily technology with India, something the US n CW will not do. As for the trust India has in its relationship with the US, I can only sum up by saying no country in the world trust the US as it has a pretty bad record of fulfilling and keeping its promise or agreements.
4) Lastly, but to me the most compelling of all, is that it is not in the geo-political interest of India to see Russia n China defeated as India will be the next target. This is precisely why China cannot allow Russia to be defeated. The best scenario will be a stalemate in this big power contest. I too believe ultimately this will be the outcome as both parties to the conflict cannot win. Hopefully the US n CW will wake up to this reality sooner than later...
Ashley is being economical with the truth.
1. Why should be two different yardsticks about Europe importing gas and India importing oil
2. India’s import of oil has stabilized world oil prices and not doing so would have created a much bigger chaos.
3. Interesting to see the realization that Western liberalism doesn’t suit India and accept Indian realism.
4. The Indian ambivalent attitude could change when India is a much stronger position and USA should work in that direction of strengthening India.
5. One thing is certain. India will never gang up with China against China
ASHLEY Tellis is an astute observer of the India US relations, there is a belief in US which comesout clearly that any convergence with US , has to be resiprocated by India in US interests........The area I disagree is on Plularity being compramised in India and Modi....that's far from the reality, perhaps first time since Independence we have a governement that is sensitive to the majority community, I don't agree that there is minority bashing as projected by the left liberals...atleast statistically ,such arguments are not supported. Unfortunately minorities vote in block based on their religious and poitical interests. US must also be sensitive to the fact that they are dealing with people who's civilisation runs at least few thousands of years with a belief system of its own and is growing stronger.
The US is selective when it comes to "values". In Africa, Asia and Europe, the US demands uniform, American based values. However, when it comes to the Middle East, the values are set aside and business comes first.
A realist.
Thank you for a most interesting discussion. There is no doubt in my opinion that India is already on the side of the US. Fundamentally speaking, a neutral nation can be just as valuable as a fighting Ally. Yet not one that is leaning too much in the wrong direction. India just needs to come down off her political fence she has all to often publicly advertised and she must confine her Sikh/Hindu feud to domestic soil only.
Who could have predicted that the enlightened gifts of newfound knowledge Elihu Yale was able to endow back to colonial America were to pay such dividends towards the close relations of US and India today. Whether this modern age will be referred to formally as Multi polarity or informally as a melded Holy Trinity and Trimurti; it really doesn't matter. What does matter though, is that todays global leaders are as Brahmin qualified as Mr Tellis is here.
31:35 the gentleman says thankfully India does not resort to violence to drive its long term strategy unlike china who can resort to any means. He conveniently forgets to mention America who have been using direct and indirect violence, toppling elected state heads and lobbying to drive their strategy.
I wonder how they expect listeners to blindly swallow all this. What repute doe these people have after all this experience? Sorry state of affairs of the Americans.
Fairly objective and "realist" conversation.
Very balanced American view.
I think this is most closest view of American administration.
Nice to see, Tellis avoiding the trash talk on democratic values. 👍
What values? The EU was fine with buying Russian gas post 2014. The US has deep interests in the middle east monarchies. So again, what values are we talking about?
Modi has been completely vindicated about his role in any riot by the Indian courts. But if you are of the opinion that only a western court can judge such matters than you are being not only being unrealistic but quite silly.
Well being an Indian, I will vouch for our civilizational values which are more than 10k years old , rather than adopting the values of a country which is hardly 350 years old and that too exist on the land of natives . I mean u never existed before u guys artificially created a country out of other people's land .
India aligns with the West, India loses all its respect in the Global South. India has to balance everyone.
India has had similarity to China and Russia. Given size of Indian economy today, India is relatively centering its position in international affairs. However, it will be more like the acting roles of China/Russia once its economy becomes powerful enough.
To add ...the conflict with China is of real, its collective effort that can takeon China....just America and its allies don't add upto, unless India is the pivot of such a grouping....this alliance grouping will ensure US remains the leading power for another 50 years....Indians are realistic...they know they can defend on its own against China, but not defeat it...that's why aligning with US helps in weakening of China
India has not provided resources to Russia but it's europe which is buying refined oil from India. This is so wrong. Very poor on ashleys part
It seems there was a mutual agreement to avoid any mention of the apparently cozy relationship between India and Russia, or perhaps more specifically between Modi and Putin. This was a very disappointing interview in that aspect that is so important at this juncture.
I am sure about one thing - he doesn't know how we nationalist think in India. He is shamelessly peddling his cunning observations based on half truths, lies and propaganda that has nothing to do with How India views the world and it's role in it.
Since 1962, India has harboured a deep grudge for China. It also doesn't help that China's rapid ascend in economic and geopolitical strength relative to India, makes India envious and dislike for China.
Thirdly, Modi's Hindu nationalism put in the last nail into the rivalry with China, and even a self-conception of India's primacy in the world, and not a subordinate to any one.
Don't forget Russia China relationship and the relationship they have with other countries... It wouldn't be ideal if India becomes a massive power, and they start threatening and tries to take India as a hostage. That's what we have already witnessed from Russian invasion.🐍♟