It is simply a delight to listen to learned scholars and practitioners as Mr. Tellis. He is absolutely top drawer. One only wishes that we could have more lectures and courses featuring him online!
It is a great pleasure to listen to experts with in-depth knowledge and understanding of the subject. One of the most top notch discussions I have ever watched and listened to on UA-cam. Shoutout to Shekhar Ji on his questions, really well prepared and thoughtful.
Shekhar ji, you need to bring more think-tanks like this amazing gentleman - Dr. Tellis!! Especially in the context of IOR vis-a-vis Indian capabilities and shortcomings!!! Thanks for this episode!!👍
One of the rare intellectuals with an extremely grounded sense of timing, context and equi-poise. Wears his immense scholarship with grace. And critically , is gifted with freedom from the haughty , pontificating Americanese so evident in the other strategic thought leaders when they engage with Indian representatives from media and academia etc. Btw he is listened to with great attention here. Lastly Shekhar G knows exactly the timing of dialogue promos for starting crucial public debates and governmental initiatives. It is my sense that SG is used for dip-stick approaches by quasi govt and other responsible stake holders to push in given directions. Wish AT had spoken about the frenetic pace of missile developments by DRDO and their capability of carrying nuclear war tipped war heads. AT is also diplomatically silent on latest refinements in the 2 stage thermonuclear devices by the AED in the last decade.
An indepth discussion with an absolutely unbelievable informality.. Sekhar Ji is has used all his decades of experience to bring such a strategic conversation! Only time wull whether India can move away from the Russian platforms.. And I feel the kind of politics that we play with defence acquisition s...? Only god can tell..
As an Aussie I completely agree with this assessment on ballistic missile nuclear subs for India - including the connection with France. Smart move. I don't though think a carrier strike group is sensible. Impossible to defend a carrier without crazy hi-tech weapons that even the US is struggling with. Force projection requires long distance bombers while the jet fighters focus on territorial defence. They will project well into Cjhina the Far East anyway. To project sea power you want cheaper and more effective frigates and destroyers - things that can control the trading lanes from the middles east and reach Madagascar/Australia. Interesting presentation. All the best India.
summary - 1. build more thermonuclear weapons, because china is already doing that. 2. our nuclear stock is unproven and not effective, akistan is much better in this regard. 3. invest in more submarines as fast as possible because that is where india can come close to china. 4. effectiveness of pakistan is much more than india in defense war. 5. both aircraft carriers of india as well as MIG 29K are kachra stock. replace fast. summary of summary - dont boast around of having a non aligned policy in the garb of strategic autonomy, where this same policy will prove to be a disaster , as china closes the gap between itself and the US. india will have to actively side with the US and be very active looking at the future. a very close cooperation with the US is the only option for india.
0. Brilliant analysis by Ashley. Thanks Shekhar for talking to him. 1. We are now wondering if Russia would actually use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. If actually used, then this will change the course for India as well. Hope Russia does not use them. 2. Ashley (and may more in the West) does not believe in the solemn assurance given to us Indians by Dr. Anil Kakodkar about our 1998 nuclear tests. Merits of this apart, this belief by others and perhaps by China, adds to the ambiguity of India's nuclear capability! 3. India is going closer to US is the result of Chinese behavior rather than the the way round. Hope Chinese realize this and settle the boundary issue soon! But either way, it is China's choice! 4. But China should note that along with India, most of the East Asia is moving in the same direction. 5. USA has successfully managed to shake both Putin and Xi recently and its impact will be felt over a long time to come. If both of them vanish from the scene soon, then both of these countries will find it difficult to maintain their strategic leverage. 6. If China becomes too big eventually, then India may have to accept its hegemony as it finds it is too costly to confront it. But before that happens, India will ensure that Pakistan is decimated by hook or crook, ideally by breaking it into 4 or more pieces. Let us see by 2040s!! 7. In conclusion, what Ashley is saying is India does not have enough nuclear power and it needs help from USA (and France). And he is telling Americans to help India out to serve its own interests against China. This is of course, welcome, even if we do not agree with the initial premise !!
There also is a boosted fission device with higher yields than plain fission but lower than thermonuclear weapons. India is understood to be focusing on boosted fission device in absence of a reliable thermonuclear design
An excellent, nuanced and lucid presentation of India’s capabilities, deficiencies and strategic challenges/opportunities going forward unlike the dweeb Pravin Sawhney’s shoddy buzzword ridden arguments which lack any coherence, consistency and depth of understanding of modern defense technologies.
A suggestion to Mr. Shekhar Gupta: Don't see your phone when someone is talking and then wave your head too that you are listening. Even if you are able to focus sir, it doesn't look good in the video.
Good assessment, I know India military officials are quiet aware about its limitation and want to improve to counter china & pak But the slow nature is what's frustrating for indigenous platforms . We need to close the gap with china & that too quiet rapidly....our pace is quiet too slow to even stand against china
I believe half our problems will be solved if both bureaucracy and generals are not given decision making or even majorly influencing power. We need to bring in honest technocrats and politicians to make these decisions.
Super interview! we need to speed up our defence acquisition asap. With the process taking eons to complete amongst all the politics only India looses; considering we are still using 50 year old planes in our airforce, which cant take on a dog fight with PAkistani fighters, how are we to deter any Chinese adventurism? Its truly disappointing to see the snails pace at which our bureaucracy works :(
It was enlightening and thought provoking to listen to Ashley Tellis. It is abundantly clear that China is well ahed of India in armaments; with an economy more than 3 times the size of India's, it has the wherewithal to invest in the R&D and manufature of weapons far more than India. India must change its approach: spending huge sums of money in the purchase of ever more advanced planes, helicopters, aircraft carriers etc is a game India can NOT win, on the contrary, will shoot itself in the foot in an attempt to do so. While maintaining a credible level of defensive capability at all times, India ought to aim at a moon shot - i.e. invest in high priority, top secret, programs, staffed with the very best brains in the country and from the Diaspora, to develop technologies that do not exist today but would , if successful, allow it to leapfrog the gap that it is facing. Of course this approach is not without risk. While this goes on, it MUST, with a sense of existencial urgency, get together its act in economic, social and human resource development, the very foundation of its security. This calls for a Government of National Unity. It must not wait for a crisis to arise. That will be tragically too late.
Great discussion. I find it hard to believe that the nuclear capabilities of India is so rudimentary. Could it be the case that India, like Israel like to obfuscate the enemy on their true capacities ? Just a thought
I hope our admirals and defense bureaucracy watches this, and avoid buying MIG-29's for the new aircraft carrier. Spend more money, and buy something that actually works well.
We had heard that a tactical nuclear weapons which were firstly tested by the Chinese but were found unstable and thence dropped the idea and were given to Pakistan to counter Indian short thrusts into Pakistani territory
One of the most informative episodes ever but I want to ask a question about Indian thinktanks, why are they not visible to us? The so called youtube thinktanks which I don't want to name are not this much strategically alligned, they are still wasting their time on India's western adversary.
With this explanation, the hype that Indian armed forces can easily retake POK must be shelved for good. We should spend only enough for a purely defensive armed forces because that is what we can manage and afford. That’ll release a lot of funds for education and agriculture.
Imagine…having this conversation with an Indian defense ministry official (or the minister himself!). He would not understand 80% of what Ashley is talking about. That is the sad reality of the Indian strategic community.
You'd be positively surprised. Not everyone in the defence ministry deals with strategic issues, that number is miniscule. But those who do are very well versed with it 🙂
Btw there is a strategic core community which acts closely with the top political leadership in India. In the absence of a vibrant public and intellectual discourse , the need for ill-informed, floating population of bureaucrats to go public with their views is inappropriate. In fact they are discouraged in this regard.
@@amithabv1060 I wish I could share your optimistic take on this. The hard facts on the ground prevent one from doing so. Your airforce is still flying the Mig-21s, your submarine fleet is nothing much to write about, your new aircraft carrier does not have worthy combat aircraft...the list goes on. The Chinese are playing hardball all along the LAC. It's time for India to unleash its entrepreneurial spirit in the defense sector. Get the "babus" out of the way, like you did in your IT sector!!
@@sundareshanal1849 Intriguing that for a country that has experienced at least one major (or minor) conflagration on its borders for every decade of its independent existence, India has studiously (or perhaps callously) under-invested in strategic thinking and planning capabilities.
The last part is interesting US was ready to help on INS Vishal which was scraped by the last CDA /current GOI.Hope they find the funds which is a major hurdle presently.
Where is the proof US ever wanted to help India? Isn't this the reason why india kept turning to Russia again & again. Was it not the US who put sanctions on India but no such punishment on the habitual neighbouring offender. US has always preferred China and Pakistan to India. It is all right to now say that US wanted to help. US help has always come with a lot of conditions which have always been against the interests of India. Indian Americans like Tellis need to do their homework b4 making statements that are only half truths.
@@exponentialcomplexity3051 just to proof some one will you start war . I am not buying much but thanks for responding. And do Pakistani have Chinese defence system.
@@utkarshmittal5616 Yes majority of Pak air defence system is Chinese. Also it's not starting the war. We apologised the next day,, there was no loss of life. What would they have claimed as a reason for starting the war? Plus the Ukraine war had just begun. Everyone was focused there. It was a perfect opportunity. Isn't it a coincidence that this happened at that time only. It's not so easy to launch a missile. The missile changed its course mid-way and proceeded towards Pakistan. Initially it was going in the southern direction. Once realising that the missile had been accidentally fired, they would have had more than 2 minutes to shut down the missile mid air. They didn't do that.
While it’s nice to listen to experts, I wonder what the intention is to question India’s nuclear doctrine and capabilities ? It’s sufficient against Pak, China is unlikely to go against India in a major war…having said this , again question if it goes nuclear , is present deterrence sufficient ? In such thinking , we are subtly being pushed into a nuclear arms race and needless at that. I wonder if there are any vested interests for pushing India’s scarce resources into a nuclear and conventional arms race, rather than into development . Mao’s theory which to some extent reflects India’s is that nuclear arms work as great deterrents…China may have ambitions to project itself against the U.S. and in another league
Praise worthy discourse. 👏🙏💐 Pak strategic doctrine decrees the use of irregular militant forces & terrorist modules to strike at vital indian military, industrial & economic targets & to do so with Impunity under the cover of a nuclear overhang in conjunction with Chinese intervention at a critical juncture to limit indian military options (beyond a token punitive strike). Indian political leadership is indicisively weak in its military reaction as seen during the attack on Indian Parliament & the 26/11 mumbai attacks. Pak Tactical Nukes form part of Pak Army Corps Commanders arsenal & is meant to blunt an Indian offensive even on captured territory to scare Indian political leadership & facilitate international intervention. ⚓️⚔️🇮🇳
If India can produce good chess players, it can too produce good nuclear engineers. It must invest in its most abundant and mulitplier resource: its youth, and its educational opportunities. Human labor is the only production factor that can produce more value than what it costs to maintain it. Solder on Indian leaders. You must think big and wide, for the sake of your future. There is no time to wasts on caste cultures and other forms of oppression. Liberate the creative power of your youth by investing in it.
With all due respect his understanding of these weapons is rudimentary at best. Even if we assume the thermonuclear test failed, he doesn't even know that the other test was a dialled down boosted fission device - scalable up to 150kt - this is the same kind of warheads France uses. Even major powers are moving to smaller sub megaton' warheads. Also,
He clearly doesn't understand that thermonuclear weapons are actually 3 stage not 2. India tested a 2 stage (fusion boosted fission) and a 3 stage (which acc to him failed).
Excellent conversation. Cannot believe, our neighbour who's 1/6th of our size is better than us in nukes. That's a major reason why India has never underestimated Pak's military capabilities contrary to some stupid Modi Bhakts who think Pak will be a cake walk. A great informative talk. Thank you,SG
I am wondering how Putin's nuclear threat was effective. If that means they were able to keep the US out of the war than that would be the wrong conclusion. The US was highly unlikely to join the fight in Ukraine after 20 yrs of constant fighting in the ME. The US has less skin in the game in Ukraine compared to Taiwan. Regardless of any nuclear messaging the US is highly unlikely to sit on the sidelines if there is war in the pacific.
Dumb ass wait till china goes on parity with the us in the nuclear strategic domain and see if those signaling won't work. We'll see if the americans wanna lose a dozen cities for something that is the core of chinese national interest.
CLASSIC INTERVIEW WORTH PRESERVATION. DURING WORLD WAR TWO AMERICA, BRITAIN, GERMANY,RUSSIA, JAPAN PLAYED THEIR FEADLY GAMES IN INTRRNATIONSL WATERS. INDIA MUST GO AHEAD WITH FIVE OR SIX AIRCRAFT CARRIERS IF IT WANTS TO MATCH THE DRAGON.. WITHOUT ADEQUATE SEA POWER, YOU ARE IN FOR A TROUBLE.
India was hit by a giant recession during the pandemic with -7.3% decrease in GDP. Even before that, our GDP growth was slowing from 8.3% in 2016 to 4.2% in 2019. Under Modi, our labour force has shrunk from 47% to 39%, meaning almost 100m people have quit the labour force. They aren't even looking for jobs so they aren't counted unemployed!!! Trade deficit had reached almost $200 Billion previous year.
@@anuragchakraborty8766 haha NPA was invented by UPA. Modi worked his ass off to reduce it by 20%. Inflation at the end of UPA-I was 15.7%. So all the growth during UPA was created by inducing consumption through subsidies and freebies. The last time the US fed did taper tantrum, the INR lost 23% in the year 2013. Do not get me started about UPA'S economic growth.
@@srinisbir8781 Indian economic growth peaked at 8.2% thanks to the brilliance of people like Dr. Raghuram Rajan and Dr. Singh. Unemployment was record low and the economy was booming. But that was before your father destroyed everything.
For some reason regular shelling at indo pak border has stopped. I believe the Chinese have threatened india. Otherwise Indians are shelling pak on flimsy grounds.
NO you are wrong my Friend. The firing stopped because China has just supplied 250 plus howitzers to Pakistan and these howitzer have longer range than any howitzer that Indian army has in its arsenal . Due to Galwaan conflict and the longer range of Pakistani Chinese made howitzers, India thought it be better to cool the things off.
@@taxidon4947 Nice Comedy Bhai. Chinese maal is a substandard! Nobody is fearful of it. That is why even China buys S-400 air defence from Russia! If you want to know the real quality of Chinese maal ask Pakistani Railways. It was almost ruined due to buying Chinese locomotives which were of horrendous quality. Only Pakistanis buy Chinese motorcycles in spite of their horrible quality because they have no choice! Pakistan's military purchases are the same. They buy Chinese becuase they have no other choice.
@@jarjarbinks3193 well there is a difference between a Made in China toy and a made in China weapon. If Chinese weapons were so bad then India could have invaded China by now and taken back Aksai Chin or even liberated Tibet. Chinese weapons may not be as good as the American weapons but they are still much better than the Indian weapons. Name me an Indian weapon that is better than the Chinese.
@@taxidon4947 "well there is a difference between a Made in China toy and a made in China weapon" Motorcycles and Train locomotives are NOT TOYS, genius! Pakistan Railways was nearly ruined when they bought Chinese locomotives. Most of those Chinese locomotives went kaput and withdrawn from service in less than 10 years, whereas Pakistan Railways still has 30+ years old American Locomotives still in service! After a horrible experience with 2 batches of Chinese locomotives, Pakistan Railways finally went back to buying American locomotives. Chinese motorcycles and tractors are also of mediocre quality. These are basic machines used in every country on a day-to-day basis. There is HARDLY any such bad product coming out of Japan or Germany for a reason. Their products are of top quality and last a long time. Heck, even comparable Indian products (in motorcycles and tractors) are FAR better than Chinese equivalents. Civilians will judge a country's products based on what is available to judge.
@@taxidon4947 "Name me an Indian weapon that is better than the Chinese." ALL OUR INDIAN WEAPONS ARE BETTER! PROVE ME WRONG!! 😂🤣 India's generic medicine and vaccines are FAR FAR BETTER AND TRUSTED all over the world! Whereas, even the Chinese themselves do not believe in Chinese products like baby formula!! 😁Chinese COVID vaccine is so "good", China is still having to lock down big cities!!🤪 India's motorcycles and tractors are also MUCH BETTER than Chinese products. Ask South East Asians, Africans, and South Americans. There the Indian motorcycles are decimating the Chinese substandard products. 😇
Stupid comment being a khatriya myself...will you throw stones or swords at their drones...??? Bakwass karni hai bas....age of martiality is fading..that time has gone where man on man matters not now.... remember Genghis and mongols where are they now?? Same with turks,central asians etc....being proud on yourself is ok...but it shouldn't be bullshit like this u r showing is just a mirage....same like Pakistani claiming that we muslim is equal to 10 hindus as written in quran...but look at 1971....!!! It wont be chinese coming but robots and guided rockets..
Is all this nuclear weaponization worth anything. Nuclear bombs are built with the intention never to use these. Then why build these monsters. Waste of resources, manpower and of course ethics..
Ashley's pro Indian approach by depicting its nuclear conservatism compared to Pakistan and China is understandable as he is 'Tata' chair at Carnegie but suggesting India to increase its nuclear weapons yield by building thermonuclear warheads and getting US and French help in building Nuclear powered submarines is astonishing! This is a result of sponsored sholarship!
It is simply a delight to listen to learned scholars and practitioners as Mr. Tellis. He is absolutely top drawer. One only wishes that we could have more lectures and courses featuring him online!
Ashley is one of the smartest guys out there. Love listening to him 😁
It is a great pleasure to listen to experts with in-depth knowledge and understanding of the subject. One of the most top notch discussions I have ever watched and listened to on UA-cam. Shoutout to Shekhar Ji on his questions, really well prepared and thoughtful.
Really liked this talk with Ashley. He is a storehouse of knowledge.
Taking a bow to Ashley Tellis' analysis and clarity of thought.
Shekhar ji, you need to bring more think-tanks like this amazing gentleman - Dr. Tellis!! Especially in the context of IOR vis-a-vis Indian capabilities and shortcomings!!! Thanks for this episode!!👍
One of the best SG’s conversation.👍
Dear Mr Golakoti,
Happy to note you liked it. Thanks for tuning in.
One of the rare intellectuals with an extremely grounded sense of timing, context and equi-poise. Wears his immense scholarship with grace. And critically , is gifted with freedom from the haughty , pontificating Americanese so evident in the other strategic thought leaders when they engage with Indian representatives from media and academia etc. Btw he is listened to with great attention here. Lastly Shekhar G knows exactly the timing of dialogue promos for starting crucial public debates and governmental initiatives. It is my sense that SG is used for dip-stick approaches by quasi govt and other responsible stake holders to push in given directions. Wish AT had spoken about the frenetic pace of missile developments by DRDO and their capability of carrying nuclear war tipped war heads. AT is also diplomatically silent on latest refinements in the 2 stage thermonuclear devices by the AED in the last decade.
A very insightful discussion. Thank you for bringing in Mr. Tellis.
His smile/chuckle at the start is infectious 🤗
Mr. Tellis really surprised me! Really a genius in strategic thinking 👏
amazing clarity of thought and expression. wonderful
Always a pleasure to listen Ashley Tellis . Great insight into Indian nuclear strategy. So informative, finally understand thermo nuclear atomic power
One of the best conversation with Sekhar's question and Ashley's answers. Very informative
Please make more this kind of videos
An indepth discussion with an absolutely unbelievable informality.. Sekhar Ji is has used all his decades of experience to bring such a strategic conversation! Only time wull whether India can move away from the Russian platforms.. And I feel the kind of politics that we play with defence acquisition s...? Only god can tell..
As an Aussie I completely agree with this assessment on ballistic missile nuclear subs for India - including the connection with France. Smart move. I don't though think a carrier strike group is sensible. Impossible to defend a carrier without crazy hi-tech weapons that even the US is struggling with. Force projection requires long distance bombers while the jet fighters focus on territorial defence. They will project well into Cjhina the Far East anyway. To project sea power you want cheaper and more effective frigates and destroyers - things that can control the trading lanes from the middles east and reach Madagascar/Australia.
Interesting presentation. All the best India.
Always a fascinating and intellectually rewarding experience hear from Mr. Tellis! Thank you SG for yet another excellent interview with him.
Valuable interview ! Ashley and Sekhar are one of best to discuss this. Thanks
Excellent conversation. Eye opener in many ways.
My god, I love them both - especially Mr. Jaishanker. He is the best foreign minister ever.
Love from Pakistan
The best of best podcasts
Mr Gupta, the conversation with Mr Tellis was one of the best in a long, long time. Request have more of such personalities in future too. Regards
A wonderful and highly insightful conversation. Thank you.
Enjoyed this conversation, very informative.
It's an eye opening discussion thanks Gupta ji
Wow it was awesome,he’s very intelligent and Smart.
Do bring him often ❤️
Fun, naughty & very insightful.. enjoyed the conversation fully
Great clarity of thoughts.
Loved this interaction on Geo strategic scenarios 👍
Superb balanced answers👍👍
summary -
1. build more thermonuclear weapons, because china is already doing that.
2. our nuclear stock is unproven and not effective, akistan is much better in this regard.
3. invest in more submarines as fast as possible because that is where india can come close to china.
4. effectiveness of pakistan is much more than india in defense war.
5. both aircraft carriers of india as well as MIG 29K are kachra stock. replace fast.
summary of summary -
dont boast around of having a non aligned policy in the garb of strategic autonomy, where this same policy will prove to be a disaster , as china closes the gap between itself and the US. india will have to actively side with the US and be very active looking at the future. a very close cooperation with the US is the only option for india.
👍
China will collapse because of it's poor demographics and all round bad economic and foreign policy under Xi
@@tamberlame27 i think its a very naive thing to say bro. very naive.
@@maddyc503 read more in China then talk about naivety
@@maddyc503 specifically read Peter Zeihans analysis on China
0. Brilliant analysis by Ashley. Thanks Shekhar for talking to him. 1. We are now wondering if Russia would actually use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. If actually used, then this will change the course for India as well. Hope Russia does not use them. 2. Ashley (and may more in the West) does not believe in the solemn assurance given to us Indians by Dr. Anil Kakodkar about our 1998 nuclear tests. Merits of this apart, this belief by others and perhaps by China, adds to the ambiguity of India's nuclear capability! 3. India is going closer to US is the result of Chinese behavior rather than the the way round. Hope Chinese realize this and settle the boundary issue soon! But either way, it is China's choice! 4. But China should note that along with India, most of the East Asia is moving in the same direction. 5. USA has successfully managed to shake both Putin and Xi recently and its impact will be felt over a long time to come. If both of them vanish from the scene soon, then both of these countries will find it difficult to maintain their strategic leverage. 6. If China becomes too big eventually, then India may have to accept its hegemony as it finds it is too costly to confront it. But before that happens, India will ensure that Pakistan is decimated by hook or crook, ideally by breaking it into 4 or more pieces. Let us see by 2040s!! 7. In conclusion, what Ashley is saying is India does not have enough nuclear power and it needs help from USA (and France). And he is telling Americans to help India out to serve its own interests against China. This is of course, welcome, even if we do not agree with the initial premise !!
Very interesting... Thanks E-in-C!
Very informative n interesting talk . Thanks Ashley 👏🏻👏🏻
Very good conversation!
Excellent. The signal for India is loud and clear that it needs to strengthen its defenses by shedding complacency.
Fantastic Discussion!
There also is a boosted fission device with higher yields than plain fission but lower than thermonuclear weapons. India is understood to be focusing on boosted fission device in absence of a reliable thermonuclear design
An excellent, nuanced and lucid presentation of India’s capabilities, deficiencies and strategic challenges/opportunities going forward unlike the dweeb Pravin Sawhney’s shoddy buzzword ridden arguments which lack any coherence, consistency and depth of understanding of modern defense technologies.
Very interesting talk about India's strategic military planning.
A suggestion to Mr. Shekhar Gupta: Don't see your phone when someone is talking and then wave your head too that you are listening. Even if you are able to focus sir, it doesn't look good in the video.
Good assessment, I know India military officials are quiet aware about its limitation and want to improve to counter china & pak
But the slow nature is what's frustrating for indigenous platforms .
We need to close the gap with china & that too quiet rapidly....our pace is quiet too slow to even stand against china
I believe half our problems will be solved if both bureaucracy and generals are not given decision making or even majorly influencing power. We need to bring in honest technocrats and politicians to make these decisions.
Since you are so impressed with him, why not ask him to form his own political party in India and try and become PM of India.
Super interview! we need to speed up our defence acquisition asap. With the process taking eons to complete amongst all the politics only India looses; considering we are still using 50 year old planes in our airforce, which cant take on a dog fight with PAkistani fighters, how are we to deter any Chinese adventurism? Its truly disappointing to see the snails pace at which our bureaucracy works :(
It was enlightening and thought provoking to listen to Ashley Tellis. It is abundantly clear that China is well ahed of India in armaments; with an economy more than 3 times the size of India's, it has the wherewithal to invest in the R&D and manufature of weapons far more than India. India must change its approach: spending huge sums of money in the purchase of ever more advanced planes, helicopters, aircraft carriers etc is a game India can NOT win, on the contrary, will shoot itself in the foot in an attempt to do so. While maintaining a credible level of defensive capability at all times, India ought to aim at a moon shot - i.e. invest in high priority, top secret, programs, staffed with the very best brains in the country and from the Diaspora, to develop technologies that do not exist today but would , if successful, allow it to leapfrog the gap that it is facing. Of course this approach is not without risk. While this goes on, it MUST, with a sense of existencial urgency, get together its act in economic, social and human resource development, the very foundation of its security. This calls for a Government of National Unity. It must not wait for a crisis to arise. That will be tragically too late.
Great discussion. I find it hard to believe that the nuclear capabilities of India is so rudimentary. Could it be the case that India, like Israel like to obfuscate the enemy on their true capacities ? Just a thought
His face and subject have one thing in common , both of them macabre
I hope our admirals and defense bureaucracy watches this, and avoid buying MIG-29's for the new aircraft carrier. Spend more money, and buy something that actually works well.
We had heard that a tactical nuclear weapons which were firstly tested by the Chinese but were found unstable and thence dropped the idea and were given to Pakistan to counter Indian short thrusts into Pakistani territory
It's a worrying matter if our Pokhran 1998 is a failure along with Pak's 1998 were success.
Yes, the guy from Washington has to be right.... May be , some one knowing stuf should interview him instead of collecting info .
.
Most indian looking dude I've seen with a white woman's name
😂
Good discussion. Too conservative on India's capabilities and Pakistani overall nuclear posture. We called their bluff, we are going to do again.
One of the most informative episodes ever but I want to ask a question about Indian thinktanks, why are they not visible to us? The so called youtube thinktanks which I don't want to name are not this much strategically alligned, they are still wasting their time on India's western adversary.
INDIA 🇮🇳 have a STRATEGIC ADVANTAGE of having a HUGE HIMALAYAN RANGE in the northern border from protecting from BELLIGERENT CHINA 🇨🇳
With this explanation, the hype that Indian armed forces can easily retake POK must be shelved for good.
We should spend only enough for a purely defensive armed forces because that is what we can manage and afford. That’ll release a lot of funds for education and agriculture.
Interesting
And what is the below threshold theory of Ajit Doval
Imagine…having this conversation with an Indian defense ministry official (or the minister himself!). He would not understand 80% of what Ashley is talking about. That is the sad reality of the Indian strategic community.
You'd be positively surprised. Not everyone in the defence ministry deals with strategic issues, that number is miniscule. But those who do are very well versed with it 🙂
Btw there is a strategic core community which acts closely with the top political leadership in India. In the absence of a vibrant public and intellectual discourse , the need for ill-informed, floating population of bureaucrats to go public with their views is inappropriate. In fact they are discouraged in this regard.
@@amithabv1060 I wish I could share your optimistic take on this. The hard facts on the ground prevent one from doing so. Your airforce is still flying the Mig-21s, your submarine fleet is nothing much to write about, your new aircraft carrier does not have worthy combat aircraft...the list goes on. The Chinese are playing hardball all along the LAC. It's time for India to unleash its entrepreneurial spirit in the defense sector. Get the "babus" out of the way, like you did in your IT sector!!
@@sundareshanal1849 Intriguing that for a country that has experienced at least one major (or minor) conflagration on its borders for every decade of its independent existence, India has studiously (or perhaps callously) under-invested in strategic thinking and planning capabilities.
@@actioergosum5193 mig 21 bison not the mig 21. Submarines are capital intensive and we'll improve with time. With the rest i somewhat agree 😹
This a thoughtful, chin stroking conversation- quite the opposite of “off the cuff” 😏
The difference between the IndianArmy and the pla……. Indian Army is a voluntary
Force !!!
The last part is interesting US was ready to help on INS Vishal which was scraped by the last CDA /current GOI.Hope they find the funds which is a major hurdle presently.
Where is the proof US ever wanted to help India? Isn't this the reason why india kept turning to Russia again & again. Was it not the US who put sanctions on India but no such punishment on the habitual neighbouring offender. US has always preferred China and Pakistan to India.
It is all right to now say that US wanted to help. US help has always come with a lot of conditions which have always been against the interests of India. Indian Americans like Tellis need to do their homework b4 making statements that are only half truths.
what's the reason for bhrmos landing to Pak? is it a mistake or is there some genuine reason behind it.
We wanted to test Chinese defense systems. Philipines might have asked for proof before buying
@@exponentialcomplexity3051 just to proof some one will you start war . I am not buying much but thanks for responding. And do Pakistani have Chinese defence system.
@@utkarshmittal5616 Yes majority of Pak air defence system is Chinese.
Also it's not starting the war. We apologised the next day,, there was no loss of life. What would they have claimed as a reason for starting the war? Plus the Ukraine war had just begun. Everyone was focused there. It was a perfect opportunity. Isn't it a coincidence that this happened at that time only.
It's not so easy to launch a missile. The missile changed its course mid-way and proceeded towards Pakistan. Initially it was going in the southern direction. Once realising that the missile had been accidentally fired, they would have had more than 2 minutes to shut down the missile mid air. They didn't do that.
India should be very careful
India should tweak its nuclear research using modern computer management methods.It has too many people working at cross purposes.
Is he related to Annu Kapoor? :D
While it’s nice to listen to experts, I wonder what the intention is to question India’s nuclear doctrine and capabilities ? It’s sufficient against Pak, China is unlikely to go against India in a major war…having said this , again question if it goes nuclear , is present deterrence sufficient ?
In such thinking , we are subtly being pushed into a nuclear arms race and needless at that. I wonder if there are any vested interests for pushing India’s scarce resources into a nuclear and conventional arms race, rather than into development .
Mao’s theory which to some extent reflects India’s is that nuclear arms work as great deterrents…China may have ambitions to project itself against the U.S. and in another league
Praise worthy discourse. 👏🙏💐
Pak strategic doctrine decrees the use of irregular militant forces & terrorist modules to strike at vital indian military, industrial & economic targets & to do so with Impunity under the cover of a nuclear overhang in conjunction with Chinese intervention at a critical juncture to limit indian military options (beyond a token punitive strike). Indian political leadership is indicisively weak in its military reaction as seen during the attack on Indian Parliament & the 26/11 mumbai attacks. Pak Tactical Nukes form part of Pak Army Corps Commanders arsenal & is meant to blunt an Indian offensive even on captured territory to scare Indian political leadership & facilitate international intervention.
⚓️⚔️🇮🇳
If India can produce good chess players, it can too produce good nuclear engineers. It must invest in its most abundant and mulitplier resource: its youth, and its educational opportunities. Human labor is the only production factor that can produce more value than what it costs to maintain it. Solder on Indian leaders. You must think big and wide, for the sake of your future. There is no time to wasts on caste cultures and other forms of oppression. Liberate the creative power of your youth by investing in it.
Is India on the way to change in “no 1st use” doctrine
SO, THE COMPETITION IS ONLY ABOUT SIZE?
The Indian alternative has to be FRUSIIII!!!
With all due respect his understanding of these weapons is rudimentary at best. Even if we assume the thermonuclear test failed, he doesn't even know that the other test was a dialled down boosted fission device - scalable up to 150kt - this is the same kind of warheads France uses. Even major powers are moving to smaller sub megaton' warheads. Also,
He clearly doesn't understand that thermonuclear weapons are actually 3 stage not 2. India tested a 2 stage (fusion boosted fission) and a 3 stage (which acc to him failed).
Excellent conversation. Cannot believe, our neighbour who's 1/6th of our size is better than us in nukes. That's a major reason why India has never underestimated Pak's military capabilities contrary to some stupid Modi Bhakts who think Pak will be a cake walk. A great informative talk. Thank you,SG
“Better than us in nukes” Lmao
@@Robertsmith001 not better than the US but definetely far ahead of India 🙂
Indian military is under the myopic hold of bania bureaucracy and group of military experts penny pinching progress
I am wondering how Putin's nuclear threat was effective. If that means they were able to keep the US out of the war than that would be the wrong conclusion. The US was highly unlikely to join the fight in Ukraine after 20 yrs of constant fighting in the ME. The US has less skin in the game in Ukraine compared to Taiwan. Regardless of any nuclear messaging the US is highly unlikely to sit on the sidelines if there is war in the pacific.
Dumb ass wait till china goes on parity with the us in the nuclear strategic domain and see if those signaling won't work. We'll see if the americans wanna lose a dozen cities for something that is the core of chinese national interest.
CLASSIC INTERVIEW WORTH PRESERVATION. DURING WORLD WAR TWO AMERICA, BRITAIN, GERMANY,RUSSIA, JAPAN PLAYED THEIR FEADLY GAMES IN INTRRNATIONSL WATERS. INDIA MUST GO AHEAD WITH FIVE OR SIX AIRCRAFT CARRIERS IF IT WANTS TO MATCH THE DRAGON.. WITHOUT ADEQUATE SEA POWER, YOU ARE IN FOR A TROUBLE.
Sir, how can bankrupt Pakistan spend so much on nuclear weapons?
So india doesn't have hydrogen bomb. It's a tricky situation.
Reality check @ 75
India was hit by a giant recession during the pandemic with -7.3% decrease in GDP. Even before that, our GDP growth was slowing from 8.3% in 2016 to 4.2% in 2019. Under Modi, our labour force has shrunk from 47% to 39%, meaning almost 100m people have quit the labour force. They aren't even looking for jobs so they aren't counted unemployed!!! Trade deficit had reached almost $200 Billion previous year.
Momota Banerjee will bring the labour force to 100%. D1ck!
Btw. it went up by 23% after the recovery.
@@srinisbir8781 Nice deflection Gobar Bhakt but it doesn't change the fact your father Modi destroyed the Indian Economy.
@@anuragchakraborty8766 haha NPA was invented by UPA. Modi worked his ass off to reduce it by 20%. Inflation at the end of UPA-I was 15.7%. So all the growth during UPA was created by inducing consumption through subsidies and freebies. The last time the US fed did taper tantrum, the INR lost 23% in the year 2013. Do not get me started about UPA'S economic growth.
@@srinisbir8781 Indian economic growth peaked at 8.2% thanks to the brilliance of people like Dr. Raghuram Rajan and Dr. Singh. Unemployment was record low and the economy was booming. But that was before your father destroyed everything.
For some reason regular shelling at indo pak border has stopped. I believe the Chinese have threatened india. Otherwise Indians are shelling pak on flimsy grounds.
NO you are wrong my Friend. The firing stopped because China has just supplied 250 plus howitzers to Pakistan and these howitzer have longer range than any howitzer that Indian army has in its arsenal . Due to Galwaan conflict and the longer range of Pakistani Chinese made howitzers, India thought it be better to cool the things off.
@@taxidon4947 Nice Comedy Bhai.
Chinese maal is a substandard! Nobody is fearful of it.
That is why even China buys S-400 air defence from Russia!
If you want to know the real quality of Chinese maal ask Pakistani Railways. It was almost ruined due to buying Chinese locomotives which were of horrendous quality.
Only Pakistanis buy Chinese motorcycles in spite of their horrible quality because they have no choice! Pakistan's military purchases are the same. They buy Chinese becuase they have no other choice.
@@jarjarbinks3193 well there is a difference between a Made in China toy and a made in China weapon. If Chinese weapons were so bad then India could have invaded China by now and taken back Aksai Chin or even liberated Tibet. Chinese weapons may not be as good as the American weapons but they are still much better than the Indian weapons. Name me an Indian weapon that is better than the Chinese.
@@taxidon4947 "well there is a difference between a Made in China toy and a made in China weapon"
Motorcycles and Train locomotives are NOT TOYS, genius!
Pakistan Railways was nearly ruined when they bought Chinese locomotives. Most of those Chinese locomotives went kaput and withdrawn from service in less than 10 years, whereas Pakistan Railways still has 30+ years old American Locomotives still in service! After a horrible experience with 2 batches of Chinese locomotives, Pakistan Railways finally went back to buying American locomotives.
Chinese motorcycles and tractors are also of mediocre quality. These are basic machines used in every country on a day-to-day basis. There is HARDLY any such bad product coming out of Japan or Germany for a reason. Their products are of top quality and last a long time. Heck, even comparable Indian products (in motorcycles and tractors) are FAR better than Chinese equivalents.
Civilians will judge a country's products based on what is available to judge.
@@taxidon4947 "Name me an Indian weapon that is better than the Chinese."
ALL OUR INDIAN WEAPONS ARE BETTER! PROVE ME WRONG!! 😂🤣
India's generic medicine and vaccines are FAR FAR BETTER AND TRUSTED all over the world! Whereas, even the Chinese themselves do not believe in Chinese products like baby formula!! 😁Chinese COVID vaccine is so "good", China is still having to lock down big cities!!🤪
India's motorcycles and tractors are also MUCH BETTER than Chinese products. Ask South East Asians, Africans, and South Americans. There the Indian motorcycles are decimating the Chinese substandard products. 😇
Will the nuclear weapons work and fire? How sure is everybody that nuclear weapons will work? In the absence of any testing?
So Rajput, Jaat and Sikhs will be sleeping when 5 feet Chinese attack, sure 🙏🇮🇳💪
Stupid comment being a khatriya myself...will you throw stones or swords at their drones...??? Bakwass karni hai bas....age of martiality is fading..that time has gone where man on man matters not now.... remember Genghis and mongols where are they now?? Same with turks,central asians etc....being proud on yourself is ok...but it shouldn't be bullshit like this u r showing is just a mirage....same like Pakistani claiming that we muslim is equal to 10 hindus as written in quran...but look at 1971....!!! It wont be chinese coming but robots and guided rockets..
In case of a nuclear war uth kar bhi zayda kuch kar ni payenge 😹😹
This comment is so cringey 😁😁😁
It is possible because we saw it in galwaan.
Please call abhijit Iyer mitra too
Not that joker. Subramanian Swamy better.
Lol, he has no idea....
Is all this nuclear weaponization worth anything. Nuclear bombs are built with the intention never to use these. Then why build these monsters. Waste of resources, manpower and of course ethics..
E i
Bogos expert. Useless..
Ashley's pro Indian approach by depicting its nuclear conservatism compared to Pakistan and China is understandable as he is 'Tata' chair at Carnegie but suggesting India to increase its nuclear weapons yield by building thermonuclear warheads and getting US and French help in building Nuclear powered submarines is astonishing! This is a result of sponsored sholarship!
Mazza aagya