Do you ever look at how dividends on SPY, and others occurring at similar dates, influence price action? I feel like there tends to be spikes in volatility around these dates
Is it possible that the 2020 recession artificially reset the clock so to speak for another one to happen given that the cause of it was artificial to begin with?
I believe the main point overlooked in this video is that the dynamics of inflation have changed in today's world. Inflation is no longer primarily driven by commodities but is now beginning to stem from trade wars and tariffs.
Everything said here was referring to patterns and correlations from a secular bull market in bonds. You can kiss that commodity/10UST relationship goodbye.
This move today is not proof that the bill market has died yet. This was already kind of predicted in an article from Bloomberg this week: “Wall Street’s Next Test After Fed: $6.5 Trillion ‘Triple-Witching.’” Options are speculative, and mass speculation moves markets. And remember, options are speculative instruments-if equity investors were long the market, they were going to call aggressively. So don’t everybody run like the house is on fire. Equities are still set to rise, especially financials and US domestics. Wait until political battles stew in Washington over the US budget and trade policy, then look for a ceiling.
The market condition has not changed. US economy is the doing much better than the rest. Even if we do not get rate cuts in 2025, we are used to the high rates and inflation already. The only thing to look out for is Trump's first six months. People are optimistic, but Trump will definitely say things that spook the market.
At this point because of the recalibration of limits to growth to me any piece of bad news looks like it spark the end of the world. I hope the paper was wrong or I’m misinterpreting it.
@@l.siestador7248 Really? You're clearly not paying attention. He wants to remove or raise the debt ceiling so that he can explode the debt and give the top 1% more tax cuts. The tariffs will cause a recession.
If you are basing your stocks on your political affiliation, you are definitely going to lose a lot of money. Don’t buy stocks based on social beliefs, environmental stuff, politics, nationalism, anything. The reason you buy stocks is when a company can show it can deliver growth, performance, and value. Full stop.
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The market is still waaaaay to overpriced. 😑
i'm mostly in UBT AMD TSM at the moment, s&p500 definitely seems risky
Not really. Just some companies are. What we should see in a healthy market would be rotation into all of these undervalued stocks.
It will double that in a decade, so no, it may be high at the moment, but in the long term, it is not at all.
What happens when it continues to be for the next year
@@joefuentes2977right but some companies also make up a majority of the s&p.
What about the uninverting yield curves foretelling recession?
This entire decade will have been an absolute economic mess
The fed seems very confused right now. The first half of 2025 should be interesting for the economy.
bought back up quickly the next day, nothing to worry
overheated market...that simple...there are no major reasons for a crash.
I'm always in awe of your graphic presentations lol, it's Art.
Do you ever look at how dividends on SPY, and others occurring at similar dates, influence price action? I feel like there tends to be spikes in volatility around these dates
The sad thing is, normal people can do nothing but watch (assuming that you know nothing about investing and don't know where to learn)
What about Stagflation??
Note, in July was the yen carry-trade. In August was Trump's remark that he'll let Taiwan get destroyed, thus all semis fell drastically.
Seems like gambling is falling out of fashion
Shows patterns and proceeds to say "but this time". Spoiler alert, its going to do the same thing
banks start selling off those bonds that are underwater youll really get to see that interest rate yield spike
I just bought more 😅
I feel that recession is coming
Best macro channel in the game - Thanks!
Is it possible that the 2020 recession artificially reset the clock so to speak for another one to happen given that the cause of it was artificial to begin with?
The previous video spooked me to lock in my massive gains. Feeling good this week! Merry Christmas 🎄
Bro, best UA-cam channel when it comes to the stock market. Love your nick, the bank of bravos 💥
I believe the main point overlooked in this video is that the dynamics of inflation have changed in today's world. Inflation is no longer primarily driven by commodities but is now beginning to stem from trade wars and tariffs.
Everything said here was referring to patterns and correlations from a secular bull market in bonds. You can kiss that commodity/10UST relationship goodbye.
Commodity and bonds… you dont see commodity index are brake out of technical and go up?
Yes we have something to keep volatility high, we have a recession.
Thank you. May you and your family have a wonderful and safe holiday season, Peter.
What happened to game of trades? Wasn’t that you???
It's the same, they just renamed the channel.
They legally had to change it. Still the same channel just rebranded
They just changed the name cause “Game of trades” was licensed by “Game of thrones” hahaha
Same channel, changed name due to certain TV show asking him to. There was a video about a month ago or so.
Yup, they changed their name. Same people and same content as far as I can tell.
This move today is not proof that the bill market has died yet. This was already kind of predicted in an article from Bloomberg this week: “Wall Street’s Next Test After Fed: $6.5 Trillion ‘Triple-Witching.’”
Options are speculative, and mass speculation moves markets. And remember, options are speculative instruments-if equity investors were long the market, they were going to call aggressively.
So don’t everybody run like the house is on fire. Equities are still set to rise, especially financials and US domestics. Wait until political battles stew in Washington over the US budget and trade policy, then look for a ceiling.
Have you thought at all about Trump's proposed economic policies?
There shd be a pause in 2025 and leave rates as they are at least through June/July.
MELT UP BABY!!!
A basket of commodities whose contents change as necessary to fit a narrative, without warning. Apples to oranges. Rubbish.
It's over, guys. Somewhere here the journey ends.
Man I just rebalanced my shit the day before this happened
Its literally back to normal lmao
Yes.
What is the Trump effect and what happens when he pressures Jerome, constantly, heckling..to keep cutting rates?
Thank you for posting
The market condition has not changed. US economy is the doing much better than the rest. Even if we do not get rate cuts in 2025, we are used to the high rates and inflation already. The only thing to look out for is Trump's first six months. People are optimistic, but Trump will definitely say things that spook the market.
I noticed that too today, markets are breaking down as we speak. This is exactly like 1924 and 1948, very similar.
Useful content fr
Cant wait for the big crash in 2025 so i can buy low 😂
Really good information. Thank you.
At this point because of the recalibration of limits to growth to me any piece of bad news looks like it spark the end of the world. I hope the paper was wrong or I’m misinterpreting it.
I’m still up 13% since November 🤷🏻♂️
Great content, thx a lot. Rather than fear mongering, you provide useful analysis.
Awesome content!
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Yeahhhhhh
Time to buy back in STOCKS MAGA BIG UP!
yep i buy any weakness at the moment
Trump wants to trim the budget, apply more tariffs, and shut the government down in 11 hours.... This is definitely not a good time to go long.
@@l.siestador7248 Really? You're clearly not paying attention. He wants to remove or raise the debt ceiling so that he can explode the debt and give the top 1% more tax cuts. The tariffs will cause a recession.
@@l.siestador7248 whilst the inevitable down turn will happen i still bet we have a few months of upwards trend, Volatility will increase even more
If you are basing your stocks on your political affiliation, you are definitely going to lose a lot of money. Don’t buy stocks based on social beliefs, environmental stuff, politics, nationalism, anything.
The reason you buy stocks is when a company can show it can deliver growth, performance, and value. Full stop.
100th like🥳🥳🥳✌️✌️✌️
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