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Unsustainable growth based on debt. Money is loosing so much value anyone who has any invests it. Companies use it for growth which isn't based on actual income, just someone coming along and buying it for more (Uber is a good example). I can't imagine this is sustainable but perhaps it is? Time will tell.
In the last 4 years, the dollar has lost far more than 20% of its purchasing power. I'm an almost 40-year-old engineer in Phoenix, Arizona, married with kids. Since 2021 my spending habits did not change one bit. I still live in the same modest house, and drive a 2012 Toyota. Despite a few job promotions and salary increases since 2021, everything else has skyrocketed: my home value went up 2.5x, but so did prices at McDonald's, grocery stores, my health insurance, HOA fees, phone and internet bills. Inflation has erased the benefits of hard work. A coworker told me he'd never afford his home if he bought it today. That hit hard. This Saturday, I went to Starbucks for the first time in months, and my usual venti chai and bacon gouda sandwich-once under $10-cost me $22.09 before tip. Who can afford this? What happened?
I still tend to believe that the 10yr minus 2yr yield curve and the unemployment rate chart are predicting a major economic downturn next year. The charts themselves predict recessions.
People used to think sickness was an act of God until we developed more in science, reason, and logic. Updated and accurate information gives us a lot more clarity to the coming realities that a lot of us are seeing.
I really appreciate how this channel avoids mentioning the politics, wars and other global situations that cause these changes and strictly only comments on the economical consequences of these events
Eron is planning cutting gov expense which will impact gov employment as well as GDP. Gov employment is major player in labor market hence impact will be phenomenal.
I just stumbled upon this channel. I was an economics major and very close to doing an economics PhD in my past. You guys are incredible with your presentation.
Cooling sale yes. Prices? Nope. Prices keep going up, interest rates keep going up, sales are happening often enough to keep prices there. Wages staying the same, less free money borrowed, housing marking is frozen as people are staying put for longer. There aren’t jobs paying better than their current job nor does it make sense to move to another for $5,000 a year raise but chew an interest rate triple what your current is.
The US would need higher interest rates and lower fiscal spending. But it cannot afford higher interest rates because it has too much public and private debt. It also cannot reduce fiscal stimulus politically. Trump will raise tariffs, cut taxes and threaten Fed independence (or what’s left of it). This will drive up inflation. It might become the prelude to a massive crisis.
Raising taxes will both keep inflationary pressure down and help pay down national debt. Why are we giving huge tax breaks to top earners and corporations in our current situation? Don't answer. I know why. Greed.
10:00 Fracking is only "good news" from a purely short-term economic context. The environmental impact of fracking is devastating, polluting groundwater and raising risks of disease.
The only true form of investing is value investing. Buy great businesses at cheap prices. The rest is speculation. Of course, there's many ways to make money through speculation. The key is in the management of risk.
It’s really heartbreaking to see how inflation and recession impact low-income families. The cost of living keeps rising, and many struggle just to meet basic needs, let alone save or invest. It’s a reminder of the importance of finding ways to create financial opportunities. You've helped me a lot sir Ricky! Imagine i invested $50,000 and received $190,500 after 14 days
We’re in for a longterm inflationary period. It isn’t transitory. It’s here to stay and likely staying for decades. Tariffs and deglobalization are a huge factor here but it’s also being driven by an economy that’s addicted to cheap money. We’re going to need decades to deleverage from the stupendous amounts of debt we’ve accumulated. Population decline is also a driver, as workers become more scarce wages are forced to rise. This means prices will rise, especially if we deport millions of people. In short, the low interest high debt environment we’ve been living through for the last 15 years is over, and we’re in for a 20-39 year period of high interests and lowering debt levels
Extreme deflation is coming in 25/26. The global recession will lead to a liquidity crisis. The S&P 500, BTC, gold, silver, everything will crash massively. In the crisis, the central banks will then lower interest rates back to 0 and save banks. The extreme deflation will be followed by an even more extreme stagflation.
I like your videos, good graphics, but the title's and thumbnails are very confusing. I completely understand why they are that way, but I would still appreciate, at least in the Description, of what the Video is actually about. Many thanks, take care!
The inflation in the 70's was driven twice by an oil crisis. Europe and North America were supporting Israel in the war of 1973 and after, which the OPEC-countries didn't like. The US has plenty of oil now and invests heavily in green alternatives, so oil won't be the problem in 2025. If you would have argued that life in the US would be more expensive because of all the tariffs that Trump is going to impose on the imports that the American public buys, yes then I would agree
The oil America pumps we can’t produce. We have no refinery capacity in America to refine our oil, we ship it out. Likewise we take oil from the Middle East to refine it. We can’t refine certain oils since it’s impossible to open a large refinery to make it cost effective.
1970 to 1980 M2 was up 150%, 2014-2024 M2 up 82%. It's 54% of the 1970s gain. But I think we could see 40trillion easily by 2040, which would be the same.
Companies raise prices so much and so constantly, that it's impossible for wages not to grow. Furthermore, wages definitely grow slower than inflation. Marx already wrote books about this in the 19th century. We very much live in the world he described today.
Inflation is only bad if you are on the wrong side of it. If you are the guy jacking your prices without commensurate cost increases, we call that pricing power. That's when inflation is nice. We need to be looking for those investments.
Thank your dear and beloved politicians from both parties and the FED for this mess. Sadly there are no signs of things changing any time soon. Inflation is coming down after the FED's epic mistake but Trump will make sure inflation goes up again, courtesy of his tariffs, deportations, and tax cutting.
Unfortunately, Trump’s election throws all of these predictions off. His plans to impose tariffs and begin mass deportations, if implemented, will be wildly inflationary. Add to that the possibility that he will succeed in his desire to politicize the Fed, reducing its ability to make objective judgments about interest rates and the money supply, and you have a recipe for economic stagnation.
To both-are you going to pay it? Cause if you are instead of doing it yourself then welcome to the "Demand" side of supply and demand. The reason prices are high is because people keep paying them.
😂I haven't seen a loaf of bread for two dollars since before Covid hit... it's $5.50 to $8.50 a loaf here in California. Lately the market is stocking half loaves😢
The inflation in the 70s and 80s were caused by a US government default when we defaulted on our gold exchange rate. What is going to cause that now. We are in a global financial crisis. All Governments (overspent) and banks (unrealized loss on bond) are practically bankrupt. What breaks first? There is more debt than dollars to repay it. Dollars are rare when you consider debt. Inflation was caused by massive government stimulus in the middle of a supply shortage.
Inflation WILL shoot up again, but, CPI will be manipulated to look low so that we can print more money. So, yes you are right but also the charts will be misleadingly wrong IMO
What’s the deal with “shifting” the charts forward 1 year? The way you do that and present that it comes across as though you’re simply doing it to prove a point. But you provide no detail what permits you to do that. It’s very confusing you did it not once, but twice (@ 6:20 and @ 8:02). Can you explain why you can do that to make any of the claims you made?
Curious to see how Interest rates affect existing home sales. If the fed continues to drop rates and make money cheaper. You would think home sales would rise and with it bring CPI.
It’s not going to help much. At most it will give people chance to refi. We are hitting a high water mark for income v home prices. I know in Nashville, lots of buyers are priced out of even the 3-5% loans.
Very informative and good graphical depiction. But I wonder if there is going to happen something in January that will suddenly make a lot of things far more expensive if it is imported into america...
Could it be the case that the US economy will experience DEFLATION at some point during 2025? Economist Steve Hanke says it will, he has said that there is a massive contraction in the money supply going on since a couple of years and hence the Us economy will experience deflation in 2025. What so you think about this?
There is some fear on the part of economists, like Nouriel Roubini, that the immigration and tariff policies of the incoming US administration could cause inflation in the US to be higher than otherwise.
AI stocks are set to dominate 2024. I prefer NVIDIA because they're well-positioned for long-term growth and support other AI companies. I know someone who made over 200% with NVIDIA. I'll also consider the other recommendations you made.
Are you professional risk managers who want to invest in the current stock market bubble? Anyway, disinflation won't create relief for consumers. The rate of increase is just slowing, but prices stay elevated. What is needed is a recession to create deflation. Still coming, just delayed. Furthermore, watch out for impact of Trump tariffs and their planned government cuts. The only reason umemployment looks great is because of the addition of government jobs during Biden period.
This is a lot to do about nothing. Cpi has been 2.2-2.4% (down from 8-10% in 2021 after COVID) Core inflation is essentially back to normal; the real problem is housing and how people haven't caught up with crazy home prices. -'cool' home prices is wonderful news. A long steady price or decline would be awesome for most people. It would allow wages to catch up to housing costs
So your call is that real estate will stay depressed through 2025? As soon as interest rates come down housing prices will skyrocket again. I think CPI will also come back to haunt us second half of 2025 through Trump may be able to lessen problem.
Where's the analysis that factors in the next financial crisis? If you invest in the system you better have a crystal ball to tell you the day they will declare a bank holiday.
Remember when everyone thought deregulation was a good idea and the market could regulate itself without causing a permanent cycle of massive crashes every few years 😂
So why then are they cutting rates when inflation clearly is not going down. They should have raised rates - not cut! If the economy is that strong they do not need a rate cut! Idiotic FED
The EV Charging Up still in November. Nikola.. Rivian... Lucid and QS EV batteries and others up for the week. AI sector Dip-buying Growing. Nvidia.. Vocodia.. VHAI.. SoundHound and others. Thumbs Up video/ comments. Thanks
🔥 BLACK FRIDAY DEAL! GET 40% OFF 🔥
👉 bit.ly/3B4tokd (EXPIRING December 1, 2024, at 11:59 PM ET)
Subscribing gives you ACCESS to:
✅ All our current ACTIVE trade ideas
🔔 Trade alerts on any adjustments and NEW trades
📊 Our short-medium-long term outlooks on the stock market (3 episodes a week)
⚠ Emergency updates on market opportunities
🎓 A TON of education on becoming a profitable trader
Subscribe to our FREE Macro Report 📈👉 newsletter.bravosresearch.com
Your graphics person needs an inflation in their salary. It's really good and illustrative.
Everyday I'm seeing articles like "ABC Company just announced 1,500 layoffs with more possibly on the horizon".... Something bad is around the corner.
Govt is hiring a lot. Lot of people I know switched to govt or govt funded jobs in last 2 years.
@@robertshegil have u sleeping under a rock for the last couple of weeks, what do u think is going to happen to gov job if trump runs the whitehouse?
Yes this is the missing ingredient for a crisis. It's daily now, but numbers are still kind of low.
Unsustainable growth based on debt. Money is loosing so much value anyone who has any invests it. Companies use it for growth which isn't based on actual income, just someone coming along and buying it for more (Uber is a good example). I can't imagine this is sustainable but perhaps it is? Time will tell.
@@robertshegilidk how much the govt will be hiring with the new DOGE
In the last 4 years, the dollar has lost far more than 20% of its purchasing power. I'm an almost 40-year-old engineer in Phoenix, Arizona, married with kids. Since 2021 my spending habits did not change one bit. I still live in the same modest house, and drive a 2012 Toyota. Despite a few job promotions and salary increases since 2021, everything else has skyrocketed: my home value went up 2.5x, but so did prices at McDonald's, grocery stores, my health insurance, HOA fees, phone and internet bills. Inflation has erased the benefits of hard work.
A coworker told me he'd never afford his home if he bought it today. That hit hard. This Saturday, I went to Starbucks for the first time in months, and my usual venti chai and bacon gouda sandwich-once under $10-cost me $22.09 before tip. Who can afford this? What happened?
I still tend to believe that the 10yr minus 2yr yield curve and the unemployment rate chart are predicting a major economic downturn next year. The charts themselves predict recessions.
100%
True! however recessions rarely happen when you expect them and i think everyone is expecting one to happen
The long end going up everytime the FED cuts is an ominous sign. The bond market is starting to call BS.
People have been predicting a recession since 2022. No one can time these things, it will happen when it happens.
People used to think sickness was an act of God until we developed more in science, reason, and logic. Updated and accurate information gives us a lot more clarity to the coming realities that a lot of us are seeing.
I really appreciate how this channel avoids mentioning the politics, wars and other global situations that cause these changes and strictly only comments on the economical consequences of these events
remember tariffs coming into effect and that 60% of oil for the US comes from Canada
Eron is planning cutting gov expense which will impact gov employment as well as GDP. Gov employment is major player in labor market hence impact will be phenomenal.
what loaf of bread are you buying for only $2? not even walmart brand is $2 anymore, and no one wants that stale crap
I just stumbled upon this channel. I was an economics major and very close to doing an economics PhD in my past. You guys are incredible with your presentation.
The wildcard here is the proposed Trump trade war. We better brace ourselves.
These are advanced signs of the collapse of an empire.
Overpriced houses are manipulated by both investors and some realtors media. It will not end well.
Cooling sale yes. Prices? Nope. Prices keep going up, interest rates keep going up, sales are happening often enough to keep prices there. Wages staying the same, less free money borrowed, housing marking is frozen as people are staying put for longer. There aren’t jobs paying better than their current job nor does it make sense to move to another for $5,000 a year raise but chew an interest rate triple what your current is.
Bravos research is the modern day equivalent of when EF Hutton speaks people listen
Me watching from Canada as our Monopoly money is worth a fraction of this.
You guys are f7cked pretty good for a developed country
Also a major real estate bubble. This is looking like a rocky road for y'all.
The US would need higher interest rates and lower fiscal spending. But it cannot afford higher interest rates because it has too much public and private debt. It also cannot reduce fiscal stimulus politically.
Trump will raise tariffs, cut taxes and threaten Fed independence (or what’s left of it). This will drive up inflation. It might become the prelude to a massive crisis.
The graphics and charts are doing incredibly well. It makes the information come across so much better. Well done Bravos team!
We may as well be paid in chocolate coins. The good times are over. The middle class is over. It was nice while it lasted.
Raising taxes will both keep inflationary pressure down and help pay down national debt. Why are we giving huge tax breaks to top earners and corporations in our current situation? Don't answer. I know why. Greed.
10:00 Fracking is only "good news" from a purely short-term economic context. The environmental impact of fracking is devastating, polluting groundwater and raising risks of disease.
All I heard is we are speculators. Speculating is gambling what you need to do is value invest. Invest based on the numbers not speculation.
And are the numbers saying anything different? Just asking
The only true form of investing is value investing. Buy great businesses at cheap prices.
The rest is speculation. Of course, there's many ways to make money through speculation. The key is in the management of risk.
Home prices only up 30% since 2020?? Haha rookie numbers you should come see australia.
It’s really heartbreaking to see how inflation and recession impact low-income families. The cost of living keeps rising, and many struggle just to meet basic needs, let alone save or invest. It’s a reminder of the importance of finding ways to create financial opportunities. You've helped me a lot sir Ricky! Imagine i invested $50,000 and received $190,500 after 14 days
Don't simply retire from something; have something to retire to. Start saving, keep saving, and stick to investments.
It would be useful if you guys did a video on you, i.e. who you are, professional experience, size of team etc etc.
Why would they do that? Let the content speak for itself
Nice try you lil CIA. you ain’t slick
not useful at all. thats just your personal curioshitty
Take everything out of Core Inflation and that line will be REAL stable.
Stagflation looks like the most likely path for the next 2-3 years before anything cracks. Not really seeing any earnings recessions at the minute
5:59 if shelter CPI is lagging then the line should be shown later and not to the left side
We’re in for a longterm inflationary period. It isn’t transitory. It’s here to stay and likely staying for decades. Tariffs and deglobalization are a huge factor here but it’s also being driven by an economy that’s addicted to cheap money. We’re going to need decades to deleverage from the stupendous amounts of debt we’ve accumulated. Population decline is also a driver, as workers become more scarce wages are forced to rise. This means prices will rise, especially if we deport millions of people. In short, the low interest high debt environment we’ve been living through for the last 15 years is over, and we’re in for a 20-39 year period of high interests and lowering debt levels
Extreme deflation is coming in 25/26. The global recession will lead to a liquidity crisis. The S&P 500, BTC, gold, silver, everything will crash massively.
In the crisis, the central banks will then lower interest rates back to 0 and save banks. The extreme deflation will be followed by an even more extreme stagflation.
Prolly
What model Time Machine do you have? The BS3000?
I'm hearing of market melt ups and inflation
@Dan16673 so what do you suggest doing with the money?
Deflationary scenario is scary. Hyperinflation too, but deflationary worries me more.
i could watch you all day brother
I like your videos, good graphics, but the title's and thumbnails are very confusing. I completely understand why they are that way, but I would still appreciate, at least in the Description, of what the Video is actually about. Many thanks, take care!
More importantly, the trajectory of core inflation tends to show where headline inflation is going.
The inflation in the 70's was driven twice by an oil crisis. Europe and North America were supporting Israel in the war of 1973 and after, which the OPEC-countries didn't like. The US has plenty of oil now and invests heavily in green alternatives, so oil won't be the problem in 2025. If you would have argued that life in the US would be more expensive because of all the tariffs that Trump is going to impose on the imports that the American public buys, yes then I would agree
The oil America pumps we can’t produce. We have no refinery capacity in America to refine our oil, we ship it out. Likewise we take oil from the Middle East to refine it. We can’t refine certain oils since it’s impossible to open a large refinery to make it cost effective.
Wage growth is a consequence of inflation, not the other way around.
1970 to 1980 M2 was up 150%, 2014-2024 M2 up 82%. It's 54% of the 1970s gain. But I think we could see 40trillion easily by 2040, which would be the same.
so what is coming first ? Recession or high-inflation???
Companies raise prices so much and so constantly, that it's impossible for wages not to grow. Furthermore, wages definitely grow slower than inflation. Marx already wrote books about this in the 19th century. We very much live in the world he described today.
What do you use for animations?
Inflation is only bad if you are on the wrong side of it. If you are the guy jacking your prices without commensurate cost increases, we call that pricing power. That's when inflation is nice. We need to be looking for those investments.
Thank your dear and beloved politicians from both parties and the FED for this mess. Sadly there are no signs of things changing any time soon. Inflation is coming down after the FED's epic mistake but Trump will make sure inflation goes up again, courtesy of his tariffs, deportations, and tax cutting.
Unfortunately, Trump’s election throws all of these predictions off. His plans to impose tariffs and begin mass deportations, if implemented, will be wildly inflationary. Add to that the possibility that he will succeed in his desire to politicize the Fed, reducing its ability to make objective judgments about interest rates and the money supply, and you have a recipe for economic stagnation.
you are literally a genius. All make sense to me
Yep I was quoted $450 for a 1/4 acre minimal leaf yard pickup. RIP wallet
Bro go pick them up yourself
$600 to power wash my house. Yikes! Not too long ago it was 275.
To both-are you going to pay it? Cause if you are instead of doing it yourself then welcome to the "Demand" side of supply and demand. The reason prices are high is because people keep paying them.
You guys have been spot on for a long time. Great work, thank you and please keep helping us.
fantastic graphs and animations. well done
There is only 1 cause for Inflation: An increase in the currency supply. Who controls the currency supply?
You sir, are a nincompoop.
Meaning everything physical and limited is staying the same and it's fiat currency value dwindling into obscurity.
This is one of a kind information. So easy to follow.
😂I haven't seen a loaf of bread for two dollars since before Covid hit... it's $5.50 to $8.50 a loaf here in California. Lately the market is stocking half loaves😢
Surprised no mention of tariffs. Very informative stuff though just started watching a couple of weeks ago.
This isn't a political channel 🙄
The inflation in the 70s and 80s were caused by a US government default when we defaulted on our gold exchange rate.
What is going to cause that now. We are in a global financial crisis. All Governments (overspent) and banks (unrealized loss on bond) are practically bankrupt.
What breaks first? There is more debt than dollars to repay it. Dollars are rare when you consider debt.
Inflation was caused by massive government stimulus in the middle of a supply shortage.
Can I ask where you get most of your economic information? What websites and how do you create charts out of it?
Inflation WILL shoot up again, but, CPI will be manipulated to look low so that we can print more money.
So, yes you are right but also the charts will be misleadingly wrong IMO
Jeff Snider agrees with you, it begins with hiring, not firings.
What’s the deal with “shifting” the charts forward 1 year?
The way you do that and present that it comes across as though you’re simply doing it to prove a point.
But you provide no detail what permits you to do that.
It’s very confusing you did it not once, but twice (@ 6:20 and @ 8:02).
Can you explain why you can do that to make any of the claims you made?
6:04 Good things come to those that wait.
Not a major drop, unless something catastrophic happens. No 2007 episode in the picture at this point.
@@desmomotodesmomoto2033 that's what they want you to think.
Thoughts on future inflation being caused by the government printing money to pay off national debt? Similar to how inflation was caused during Covid?
SPY to around 620 then it’ll get cut in half or more
How do you find all these non-Nasdaq reports about the economy? What are some ways to view this? Can I import this into Google Finance?
Curious to see how Interest rates affect existing home sales. If the fed continues to drop rates and make money cheaper. You would think home sales would rise and with it bring CPI.
It’s not going to help much. At most it will give people chance to refi. We are hitting a high water mark for income v home prices. I know in Nashville, lots of buyers are priced out of even the 3-5% loans.
Since the Fed cut twice this fall, mortgage rates have risen significantly. The ‘market is always right’ axiom at play.
Very informative and good graphical depiction. But I wonder if there is going to happen something in January that will suddenly make a lot of things far more expensive if it is imported into america...
I really enjoy your videos. Graphics, charts help a lot in understanding educational elements you provide us with. I learned a lot. Many thanks.
Thanks Bravos another wonderful show.👍
Could it be the case that the US economy will experience DEFLATION at some point during 2025? Economist Steve Hanke says it will, he has said that there is a massive contraction in the money supply going on since a couple of years and hence the Us economy will experience deflation in 2025. What so you think about this?
So good. Well done Bravos as the quality of this video in all regards is top notch 🎉
One video on euros?
That is a great analysis, I appreciate it.
I learned a lot, thanks!
There is some fear on the part of economists, like Nouriel Roubini, that the immigration and tariff policies of the incoming US administration could cause inflation in the US to be higher than otherwise.
AI stocks are set to dominate 2024. I prefer NVIDIA because they're well-positioned for long-term growth and support other AI companies. I know someone who made over 200% with NVIDIA. I'll also consider the other recommendations you made.
Very good presentation'; pulls together a lot of data; narrator does good job of explaining the technical terms involved
This guys voice sounds like Lars Ulrich
Are you professional risk managers who want to invest in the current stock market bubble? Anyway, disinflation won't create relief for consumers. The rate of increase is just slowing, but prices stay elevated. What is needed is a recession to create deflation. Still coming, just delayed. Furthermore, watch out for impact of Trump tariffs and their planned government cuts. The only reason umemployment looks great is because of the addition of government jobs during Biden period.
Excellent, as always.
Can somebody tell me where the accent of this narrator comes from? I love it
it's a very neutral middle class accent, it could be from anywhere in the US.
This is a lot to do about nothing. Cpi has been 2.2-2.4% (down from 8-10% in 2021 after COVID)
Core inflation is essentially back to normal; the real problem is housing and how people haven't caught up with crazy home prices.
-'cool' home prices is wonderful news. A long steady price or decline would be awesome for most people. It would allow wages to catch up to housing costs
Did you make money when things crashed?
you're screewed! invest!
You're forgetting something, the dollar is only losing its purchasing powerIN THE USA. In the rest of the world its the most sought after currency.
Inflation may jump with product shortages China trade issues .
So your call is that real estate will stay depressed through 2025? As soon as interest rates come down housing prices will skyrocket again. I think CPI will also come back to haunt us second half of 2025 through Trump may be able to lessen problem.
Where's the analysis that factors in the next financial crisis? If you invest in the system you better have a crystal ball to tell you the day they will declare a bank holiday.
Remember when everyone thought deregulation was a good idea and the market could regulate itself without causing a permanent cycle of massive crashes every few years 😂
You are. What about when Donald Trump's tariff hit?. Wouldn't that lead to significantly elevated inflation
Stocks are overvalued it gotta cool off
Tariffs gonna spike inflation hard.
Buy btc, hedge against inflation
6666 - final target snp500👹👹👹. This number is calculated. Measurement error - 1%
But but but. Trump is gonna END inflatin on day one! He said so himself!
Sell tech, buy gold and oil and hold on tight.
So why then are they cutting rates when inflation clearly is not going down. They should have raised rates - not cut! If the economy is that strong they do not need a rate cut! Idiotic FED
Wait till you get 25 to 100% tariffs across the board and lose millions of workers to deportation... 😮 Depression 2.0
How can i go 10x Long on Inflation 😭🧐😵💫
The EV Charging Up still in November. Nikola.. Rivian... Lucid and QS EV batteries and others up for the week. AI sector Dip-buying Growing. Nvidia.. Vocodia.. VHAI.. SoundHound and others. Thumbs Up video/ comments. Thanks
This all does not take not into account what happens if Trump gets into office and decides that the interest rate should be zero point something.
I stopped buying at highs I’m out lol
Yes.