Back to Back Solar Storms on Their Way | Solar Storm Forecast 19 October 2023
Вставка
- Опубліковано 3 лип 2024
- (Note: This forecast was created using a new live broadcast format I am developing, which is still being tested. Please bear with me as I perfect this method.)
00:00 Introduction
00:16 Millersville University and Sponsors
00:58 Earthside Sun
03:27 M-Flare and Dayside Radio Blackout Threat Meter
04:17 Solar Storm Conditions
05:11 Solar Storm Prediction Model Runs
07:57 Simulated Farside Sun
09:58 Moon Phase
10:19 Solar Storm and Aurora 5-Day Outlooks
11:29 Solar Flare and Radio Blackout 5-Day Outlook
12:32 Radiation Storm and Polar Aviation 5-Day Outlook
13:14 Closing
Our Sun remains active, launching no less than four solar storms in our general direction, but most of these are wispy and will have a soft landing at Earth. At least one of these storms is already impacting Earth, bringing aurora to high latitudes. However, aurora photographers at mid-latitudes will likely have to wait until October 20 when a larger and faster-moving storm is expected to hit. Solar flare activity has also calmed down this week and the risk of radio blackouts has dropped quite a bit. Amateur radio operators should enjoy decent radio propagation on the dayside of Earth, without too much noise. These conditions will likely continue over the next few days before some bigger regions on the Sun's farside rotate into view. GPS users will also notice improved reception on the dayside of Earth but will need to remain vigilant near dawn and dusk and also near aurora on earth's nightside. Learn the details of the coming solar storms, watch the big farside blast from regions not yet in Earth-view, and see what else our Sun has in store this week!
This Space Weather News forecast sponsored in part by Millersville University:
www.millersville.edu/swen
Want early access to these forecasts, tutorials on Space Weather, & more? Visit:
/ spaceweatherwoman
For daily and often hourly updates (during active times) visit me on Twitter:
/ tamithaskov
For a more in-depth look at the data and images highlighted in this video see these links below.
Solar Imaging and Analysis:
SDO: sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/
Helioviewer: www.helioviewer.org/
Flare Analysis: www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest...
Computer Aided CME Tracking CACTUS: www.sidc.oma.be/cactus/out/lat...
GOES Xray: www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xra...
SOHO: sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/
Stereo: stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
GONG magnetic field synoptic movie: gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/stan...
GONG magnetic field synoptic charts: gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/
LMSAL Heliophysics Events HEK www.lmsal.com/isolsearch
Solar Wind:
DISCOVR solar wind: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/rea...
ACE Solar Wind: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace...
NASA/CCMC/M2M Enlil Solar Storm Prediction Model: iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystem...
NOAA/SWPC Enlil Solar Storm Prediction Model: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa...
Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Atmosphere:
GOES Magnetometer: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goe...
Ionosphere D-Region Absorption (DRAP) model: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-r...
Radio Propagation: www.tvcomm.co.uk/g7izu/atlant...
Near-Earth radiation environment: spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/p...
Auroral Oval Ovation Products: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aur...
Global 3-hr Kp index: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/pla...
GEOCHRON Weather Display: www.geochron.com
USGS Ground Magnetometers: geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/
Multi-Purpose Space Environment Sites:
NOAA/SWPC: www.swpc.noaa.gov
SOLARHAM: www.solarham.net/index.htm
Spaceweather: spaceweather.com
iSWA: iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa/iSWA.html
Definition of Geomagnetic Storm, Radiation Storm, and Radio Blackout Levels:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/
None of this would be possible without the hard work and dedication of those who have provided all of this data for public use.
Images c/o NASA/NOAA/ESA/CSA (most notably the superb SDO, SOHO, ACE, DSCOVR, STEREO, CCMC, M2M, JPL & DSN teams, amazing professionals, hobbyists, institutions, organizations, agencies and amateurs such as those at the USAF/HAARP, NICT, NOAA, USGS, Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Intellicast, Catatania, rice.edu, wisc.edu, sonoma.edu ucalgary.ca, rssi.ru, ohio-state.edu, solen.info, and so much more. Thanks for making Space Weather part of our every day dialogue.
You're so ahead of your time. I love this channel. Its what our future weather forecast will include. Thank you for your wisdom. I'm saving my money for your course. Everyone should get certified.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this with me! I agree, we need more people certified in space weather. This is why I am training broadcast meteorologists in space weather expertise. We need credible reports shared during the weather segment on the evening news.
@@TamithaSkov I completely agree. I'm always telling my family about the solar weather for the day. It's incredible how our star controls everything on our planet. I'm 54 yrs old, science was always my favorite class, everyday now with our technology is like being a kid again in that science class. From earthquakes to volcanoes our star orchestrates it all. Thank you so much for pinning me, but also for guiding & teaching us so much.⭐💛
Solar flares, a narrative to support sabotage! ✌️
Saturn and the hexagonal storm represent a diamond ring. We're married to this girl forever. Crystallizing!! Lucy becomes Maisie.🌱🥀🌹🦖🐒🦍🍌
All these floating planets below would represent our thoughts.🤔🦖
They were all once a moon like us!!🐰⏰🌚
We imagine the best case scenario for everyone and everything, allowing us to then tap into higher dimensions. Awakening a planet and its star system. 🏳️🌈⚀⚁⚂⚃⚄⚅
Just like Dorothy finding OZ!!🦁🐅🐻 Just minus the tornado and drama!! Instead you can do it from your own couch comfortably!!🥔💀👃👣👀👁🧠👅💋💖
No need to overthink. We flow and wait for one of these rogue planets or star systems to find us.🌊🌊🌊 Planets, stars, and humans colliding dramatically in the form of Purrthquakes instead of Earthquakes. 🙀🐾
The more we're centered like a gyroscope, the faster our story unravels.💁♂️🍿💁♀️🍿📽🎬🎞📺
Accumulating moons and leveling up. We become the Milky Way itself as we do this, lighting up the sky.🐮 🥛🌌
Each galaxy collision afterward representing more power. We're getting super Earthy. We're getting juicy!!😋🍄🌋🍊🎆🎇✨😋🍄🌋🍊🎆🎇✨
Some of my more powerful experiences have happened with my eyes closed.😄 Oct20th, I saw the eye of a dragon looking at me.🦄🐉🧙♀️🧙♂️
Gaia's heart is meant to beat catastrophically as she herself is mooning up.🎈🎈🎈 Mercury Rising!!🌡💔💕💓💗💞💖💝
World/universal peace is a catastrophic catastrophe!!🐈🐾🌈
Painting the purrfect picture!! A masterpiece and fairytale. Using ALLLLLL the colors in spectrum.👨🎨👩🎨🎩🐇
Possibly becoming the rainbow brick road to OZ!!🤔🦖❤🧡💛💚💙💜☄
A fibonacci sequence as we loop back around from the moon to the universe itself. 🌱🥀🌹🐞
The universe is always under construction. Us included! 👷♂️👷♀️
My cosmic perspective. 🐶🐾
I'm 57! I always tell kids "you're NEVER too old to learn!"
Thanks so much for the video and info, Tamitha Skov.
Remember to like and share good people.
Enjoying the bands at the moment! 10m from ZS to the US are fantastic!
Nice! Thanks so much for the field report. Glad to know the radio bands are improving.
Triple wammy does pose some difficulties on the bands but we wouldn't have it any other way, thank you Tamitha for the splendid report ❤✨
Thanks guys ... This sort of forecast was a dream for me a decade ago .
I love that this is where we are .
What a wonderful thing to say. I appreciate it very much, especially because these forecasts take me a while to put together. It is definitely a labor of love.
@@TamithaSkov when i started this it was november 1997 I wondered why it snowed irregularly in ireland. and my search took me to the sun.
Back in 2006 i made my first little films about the sun and how it made it snow in ireland. and after lots of research i predicted a big snow in 2009 a 33 year snow for ireland.
when it came.. i stopped lacking conviction.
I dreamed of days like this, when someone else would do the hard work. I do know how hard it is, watching the clockwork orange.. i respect you and your team so very much . i've relaxed since about 2018 or perhaps it was 2015 when i saw others doing the work. and now it is such a joy to see an established scientific method.
you've perhaps have some idea of the many hours spent at a computer analyzing ACE, watching soho, learning..
In ireland the weather lags the sun by two years. we get our two best summers two years after max and our worst winters two years after minimum ...
You are the Emeril of Space weather...Bam!
I am so thankful for Dr. Skov and space weather news!!!
The filaments are giving the sun a nice tiger-striped look in that angstrom @1:59. Grrr... 🌞🐯
Such a great analogy. Tiger striped Sun! Similarly, I was thinking the Sun looked brindle-colored, like my boxer mix.
@@TamithaSkov I almost said it looked brindle, too, at first but then I simplified my comment lol. I love brindle dogs! And tigers! ✨💖✨
Amazing! You sound like average hurricane forecasters! Incredible details and such foresight on this channel. Love it! The first time I saw a "Solar Weather" title I felt like I was in in the latest Tom Cruise Minority Report movie! Fabulous and so informative. You make everyone feel so smart as if we're all budding astronomers (and for having taken Astronomy classes in college I'm here to say omg that 💩 is HARD!) 🤣 LOVE THIS! You're our future.
Always loved your analysis of the Solar weather and the newer format really brings it over the top. Thank You Dr. Tamitha!
Thank you for being an example for my 7 year old. Both of us are learning so much. I understand we are not the target audience, but we are here and appreciate you!
Anyone who is interested in this is the target audience, IMO! 😉
Love watching cause I do learn alot (sshh I'm target either oh well dont think they mind) can keep with you for a bit now 😊 and understand my solar weather app 😉
Actually, you both are my target audience! We all are affected by Space Weather. In particular, your little one is part of the "Mars Generation," which means they will see people living, working, and vacationing in space in their lifetime. Likely, they will see a colonization of the moon, possibly even Mars! So, space weather is super important as we continue to become spacefaring.
Wow! So, tha radiation problem will be fixed... Or is fixed already?!
Thank you Dr, your the best! Always a pleasure listening to you ❣️
Thank you
Space Weather Woman
New setup is quiet neat ! I love the in-situ lasco videos. It's a new step to facilitate our comprehension
Great to know that! Sometimes I wonder if those little pop up boxes are too much so this helps me see they are just right!
You are way better than the ones I had been watching❤❤❤ im switching to you🎉
I love the new format!! Keep going!! 😊
Thanks so much Heidi! This forecast does feel a bit rushed, but that is because Im still so new at the live broadcast thing. Im hoping my nerves will settle as I get more used to it.
Thank you for these very informative solar updates and forecasts.
Thankyou Tamitha.
You are appreciated 💞🙏💞
amazing video ❤
Aww! Much thanks!
One of the best solar reporters anywhere
Thanks to rain I missed the Eclipse. Hoping to catch the next one in April, '24
Bummer you missed it. But youre right, at least we get one more chance!
I missed it, too, and sadly the April '24 eclipse is not going to be visible on the West Coast where I am. So I'll either have to travel East or South if I want to catch it. 💁🏼♀️
@@TamithaSkov JESUS CHRYSLER!!
Tamitha, thank you as always for your super informative Space Weather News. The new format is great. All the best of 73 !
Excellent! I am so glad to hear this. Im still a bit wobbly at it. Among other things, Im hoping Ill find better ways of executing transitions between scenes.
😜@@TamithaSkov
Thanks Dr Skov!! Your coverage of space weather is amazing!
Thank you Tamitha!
Love the presentation
Time to do some daytime DXing
Hope the bands are as good as the forecast predicts! Ive heard people say things are still a bit noisy for some reason. I wonder if that is a local phenomenon or if everyone is having trouble.
This is great! Love the Weather Channel vibe! I'd love to start my morning with the daily space weather forecast! Subscribed. Keep up the good work! 👍
I love these!
ty - luv ur work as always
Dr.Tamitha skov your utube videos are awesome my friend 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
TY Dr. T
Thank you Dr. Tamitha Skov😎
Thanks Doc 😊
Nice thanks so much!
I thought so from watching and learning from your content!
Ten meters is going to be most interesting. And I'll hopefully see an aurora Saturday evening. Thanks for your encouraging forecast. I agree we must pay attention to space weather. After all, it could effect the grid and give us an awesome spectical in the sky.
Dr.Tamitha skov your information is interesting 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉😊
Exciting times, thank.
Agreed. Now if only the Sun would stop throwing softballs at us so that aurora photographers could get some decent shots at mid-latitudes!
The mystery of the 7 star crossings Jesus the son of God our father held in his hand not you or co2 is causing these the birthing pains of these the climate change end times.
You are not God's. You can no more change the climate of this planet than you can change your God given gender. Repent & Follow Jesus the word become flesh.
Are we in danger, with all these dolor storms.... Any information very much appreciated, thank you
When dollar storms happen it is best if you are possitioned at thev receiving end of the storm vortex. According to ancient astronomers Mercury's orbit/positions plays a big role in this.
Passing Through, Has The World Changed Yet..
That isn't the only change. The Sun has been extremely bright and bigger in the last few days. The air has been cool, but the surface of where the Sun hits, is hot.
been awhile since ive watch. summer off from the radio lol... but i see you have the side screens setup.. cool deal... looks good with your eyes at level and such . tons cleaner for sure.. anyways... good to be back for the winte ops nope dont want to say it yet lol ..
I think a dedicated channel would be a great idea, like The Weather Channel, to give us daily updates on space weather and how it ties in with our weather here on Earth. I think a lot of people would have no interest in seeing space weather due to lack of intelligence (my bad...I said it outloud 🤣 🙊) or lack of interest. 🤔 I can see my deceased grandfather saying, "OK, OK, what is this ****? What happened to the weather forecast for *here*? I don't have time for this!!😂 God rest his soul...💙 .
All joking aside, I would love it, as would many others. But I like the idea of a dedicated channel the best! I'm currently saving up for a mid-range priced telescope. My 8 y.o. grandson and I have a lot of interest in the solar system (we LOVE the oceans, too). But if anyone could recommend an easy to use telescope that we could view things beyond the moon and stars, please let me know! And yes, I subscribed to this channel. Keep up the good work! 😉 💖
P.S. I am also interested in subscribing to your course!
Yikes! Look at the GOES solar UV imager. A crazy T formation on the sun.
you should add New Zealand time as well as when its 19 in usa its 20th in nz as we are the first place to get daytime
All the times I give are in UTC (Zulu Time) so that is evenly centered for all!
Anyone know whether velocity or density affects our biology more?
🧡👍👍👍🙏🙏
⭐️*⭐️*⭐️*⭐️*⭐️
I love your expertise and your reports but I Don't like the way they make me feel anymore and it's my own fault for Years and Years of long sun exposure and causing major Sun Damage to my Body so thank you kindly for what you Do I finally quit going outside for the Sun Rays 6 months ago after some concerning Heart Doctors appointments 😔
So sorry your heart is giving you trouble. I hope rest and good living sets things right again!
@@TamithaSkov thank you Mam they did two valves 9 years ago so I've been blessed to have this much extra time I do still love the Sun and your the Best there is at Reporting it Seriously you are 🤙🏽
something else other than Wars to worry about.
❤
What is "Solar Storm "? Frequency? Because the stars pull everything in!
The star gate is open again ⚚⛯
Haven't been getting updates 😢
I have some time lapses of the sun over 10 , 13 and 18 years from soho data i dowloaded over a decade and compiled into time laspses .
Does anyone want them
I'd love to see them. Hopefully here because Tamitha has you send them to her. 🌞
You should publish them on You tube. Then we can compare them to the 10-year timelapses of SDO/AIA imagery. This will not only show how different solar cycles perform, but also how much our instrumentation has improved over the decades!
Love what you do!!!
LOOKING FWD TO SOM RADIO ACTIVETY 14.220MHz 28.300MHz
Dr.Tamitha skov my hobbies are painting pictures 🖼 and listening to shortwave and ssb iam thinking about getting my ham license 🎉🎉🎉🎉😅
Go get your license! Those in the amateur radio community are among the best people I've had the good fortune to know!
❤😊❤xoxo
I stopped warning. Noone believes so i just do it.
Cmes today
im really late,sorry.
Lol you keep blocking aurora outlooks for beginning of week lol
I dunno, I think this Solar Cycle is hanging up its foil hat. Stuff on the East limb has been talking the talk but cowers whenever it's time to face Earth. ...Trying a new strategy since finger crossing didnt' work: talk smack and hope to get proven wrong...