China's Population Collapse Is Terrifying - Peter Zeihan
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- Опубліковано 15 чер 2024
- Peter Zeihan explains China’s current demographic trends. Does Peter Zeihan think that China is heading for population collapse? Why did China’s one child policy cause so much damage? What does Peter Zeihan think about Chinese food shortages?
#peterzeihan #china #population
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As a former USAF Intel I assess China did not want another Mao in the history books so they used Tom Hanks disease to do the job and distract from the job being done. They are vengeful of the US influenced one child policy. Don’t forget that. Anywho, Chris, I am your ILR Witcher. Sidebar?
China says their Birth Rate is slightly over 1 (2.1 needed to sustain the Population) but I'm not even sure of that, in theory China could have 4 kids per couple and be heading out of this in 20 years, although dealing with Population issues for 20 years and x amount after, however, it's incredibly doubtful China will even get to 2.1 unless the do it at literally Gun Point, and I don't see that happening, so when we say China's going to be cut in half Population wise by this Date, but there Population is set to Keep Collasping till the come out the other end, than add the Death Spiral to the Economy it could compound that further! We are talking a Complete Collaspe of Society, it's possible China gets under 300 Million by the End of this Century, it's possible.. and a left behind toxic and crumbling waste land, a cautionary tale, expect their Higher Ups Know This, and they'd be more than happy to take US all down with them given the chance, and trying to overrun South East Asia to try to Stave that off, no matter how futile, could be what they see as their way out of This. Wars on the Table!
What everyone leaves out about Fertilizer or Food Issues, or Energy Issues is it's not our Problem besides the Price being x amount inflated, but not as high as other places for x Reasons and we have more money to deal with our lower costs compared to them. We are the World's Largest Food Producer and Exporter, We make enough Fertilizer for US and can export some because of such, because we have the most energy in the World Surrounding US and inside US, and when you compare pipe lines to shipping it across seas, most of that Cheap Energy is for US, and compared to everyone else, it will be cheaper! Because we use our Soft Power already to ensure our Prices are lower here than other places, like compare gas prices here to Europe before, point proven. But people frame all this as Dynamics held against US, However all these Dynamics are why we are going to Remain #1 and all our Enemies are Throwing a Fit while they can before it's all to obvious! We got to make it through this Decade without Civil War, and we literally got the 21st Century!
☣☣☣🇪🇺🇬🇧🇺🇸☣☣☣ don't worry about China.... USA has a population collapse for 30yrs now. More dead whites than being born. Plus, life expectancy for whites has been in decline for 20yrs, shorter than China. Increase white Male suicides has drastically increases. Only Hispanic coming to USA is increasing. Soon your channel will be in espanol! United states of Mexico
India your employer.....is growing... but, they know it is a burden on their country. 80% illiteracy rates, most newborns are from rapes. Largest democracy is also largest corruption! Not to mention it's the west new dumping ground for pollution and slave labor.
not interested. peter seems clueless
male to female sex ratio by country (25~50 year old category)
china 1.05
India 1.07
Kosovo 1.12
Oman 1.33
Saudi Arabia 1.52
Kuwait 1.69
Bahrain 1.87
UAE 3.27
I worked in Beijing, China from 2004 to 2008. Every week couples flew in from North America and Europe and took home Chinese infants that they were adopting - almost all girls. Those little babies would be 14 to 19 years old now. Amazing that even that recently the Chinese did not see the problems that they were creating.
As a Chinese girl,I’m happy they got good family,China abandoned them and doesn’t deserve them
@@vitaboostand my buddies nieces best friend was adopted from China and goes to a great university and has opportunities she never would have had which is the norm.
Good for the rest of the world bad for China.
Adoption is a drop in the bucket, that's not really the problem
The CCP isn’t forward thinking but rather is very short-sighted, and this is due to their big desire for immediate results…Things that they can show off quickly….They wanted to eliminate poverty quickly and slowing population growth using the one child policy is an example of this. Also the property bubble. They funded massive construction projects simply to boost GDP numbers even though it inflated the property bubble, but they preferred to kick the can down the road so long as the immediate results made them look good…..
I'm not sure what to think about this guy.
He's well-spoken and very confident, which makes it easy to believe him. He knows a lot about the things he talks about, or at least appears to.
I've also seen him be horrendously off base, while continuing to speak with the same kind of confidence.
I dunno. He's absolutely a pleasure to listen to, but I feel the need to take him with a large grain of salt.
Example, please.
I've heard some complete bullshit come out of his mouth. The thing is unless you are well versed in the topics being discussed you won't have any way of realizing how wrong he is
This is exactly the kind of comment to take with a large grain of salt. Made no argument, cited nothing, merely made claims.
@@repCanada Demographics are what they are, and he's not wrong about China.
Agree, this guy is bullshiting. Why would China need to expand when the population shrinks? It’s a big country, china’s own land can support a smaller population for sure
Years ago I went to China and observed an 80 year old woman working in the factory I was going to do business with. Don't you think that will happen to all their workers, they simply won't be able to retire. They will end up working until they are unable to.
I am Chinese with ALLthe people I know of ALL retired early to give their posts to their kids
Yes I think in the future they will have jobs if they choose! But in recent times they have not generally had to work!
@@user-co5mp3tm2zbut those people who retired weren't having enough kids.. that's a problem.. that means you're having less youth replace your retiring workers that means you're going to have a diminished GDP.
@@tobinsarttrading1733they won't have the jobs like they did.. less population means less workforce.. less workforce means diminished gross domestic product.. so one of two things happen.. the growth and the standard of living that the Young generation parents built and grew up with is going to go away.. or in order to maintain that standard of living China is going to have to demand more value extracted out of what they can produce with their shrinking population.
Kind of like here
Great video! According to certain economists, there are projections indicating the possibility of the United States and certain parts of Europe experiencing a recession during a portion of 2023. While a global recession, which refers to a decline in annual global per capita income, is relatively uncommon due to the faster growth rates of China and emerging markets compared to developed economies, it is important to note that if economic growth lags behind population growth, the world economy is generally regarded as being in a recession.
My primary concern at the moment is finding ways to generate additional revenue during challenging economic times. I cannot afford to witness my savings diminish to nothing.
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Thanks for the information! He really seem to know this stuff. I found his web-page when I made a google search of his full names, read through his resume, educational background, qualifications and it was really impressive. I left him a note and booked a call session with him..
To succeed the financial market, you must review and put into consideration the dynamics of your assets prior investing. Analysis based on research is vital which is why I recommend investing with a financial advisor if you don’t know the basics.
It's 2024 and no recession yet
West Aussie farmer here. Great talk here about food and fertiliser. 12 months ago a particular fertiliser blend I use cost $750 a ton same blend cost over$1300 a ton this year
Sorry to hear that, crazy economy. Good luck to you.
Manufactured chaos mate
@@RenegadeRanga yeah, I thought the same. There’s no way it’s incompetence, too deliberate to be stupidity.
We need to produce fertiliser here. In the same boat farmer in NSW.
What Brand of fertilizer do you use?
The Chinese were able to do in one generation what the British did in seven generations because six generations of British had to discover things for the first time. China had the luxury of adopting practices that other peoples had already discovered. And if you have an authoritarian government you can impose those practices on a culture that never would have discovered them on its own.
Did you know that most of leonardo's idea's likely came from china
@@laurencew5220 Just no.
@@laurencew5220 Er, no they didn't.
Dude China was already a developed nation when Eurpoe was still living in the middle ages. Europeans did learn most of what they know from the people in the far east and from the Arab's. If you don't know shit about history, it's maybe not such a good idea to post comments.
Maybe read a few history books before posting.
@@swissbiggy , everything you know about China being so great in the past was all propagated by Western Communists. Ancient China was all about tribal wars.
Chinese seniors do not have a social safety net to fall back on. Every couple is supporting their elderly parents on both side--the husband's and the wife's.
Land for agriculture in China have been reduced due to uncontrolled pollution. One has to even question the health safety of any Chinese agricultural product.
Only 1.4 billion people left. 😂
A few months ago I found this guy in youtube and I was impressed by his "predictions".
As time went by it became clear that none of his catastrophic visions (supported by "very serious reports and research") were even close to reality,
FInally I got to one conclusion that has become a very accurate rule ever since: If Peter Zeihan says it, then believe the opposite and you'll get to the truth
This was without doubt one of the most fascinating and informative interviews ive seen in some time.
Everyone remembers their first Peter Zeihan lecture
Yes the most awful and wrong analysis. Look up Nathan Rich on Zeihan to understand Zeihan.
Wishful thinking, it seems Zeihan has it backwards. I've looked at Chinese census data, and if anything, they are finding it's better than expected, for example China just "discovered" 12 million extra children born between 2000 and 2010, most of whom were girls. Why? One child policy made them HIDE their extra girl children so they can try again for a boy. Zeihan's odd 100 million overcounting claim is such that he is saying people had girls, reported their births, then killed them. Uhhh, no. While yes many Chinese did abort their girls, they did it before they reported them as births (either aborted during pregnancy or infanticide usually right after birth and finding out it wasn't a boy, sadly, I've seen abandoned baby girl carcases thrown in the refuse in China like it was just garbage, quite traumatizing to see). They don't keep the girl, report it to the government and keep it for a while, they'd get attached. They almost always get rid of it immediately, before they can get attached. No woman is going to breastfeed a baby they intend to murder and they didn't have formula back then. What DID happen is many mothers HID the births of their first girl or first boy even, so they could have their first son or even a second child.
So China's demography actually is better than expected, in 2016 after the one child policy was lifted, demographers began discovering that there were anywhere from 30 million to 60 million hidden girls in China born from 1980 to 2010, which is good news for China. There is no way of knowing the true number of how many millions of girls went missing unless they get discovered or self-report as many of them have lived for decades using false identities (i.e. borrowing a sibling or cousin's ID whenever they need ID, living with another identity, living offgrid, etc.). I personally know of a few Chinese who have mislead society/govt on their birth origins.
Also, Zeihan is clearly wrong about which countries are the worst fertility rates. The worst country in the world is South Korea who has a fertility rate of 0.8, which is about 1/3rd of the replacement rate, they are shrinking by 2/3rds in the next 30-40 years.
What Zeihan said about China is actually more applicable to South Korea. In 20 years, South Korea's military will shrink by 2/3rds. Meanwhile North Korea more than double the birth rate and is actively trying to increase their birth rate (now that they know they could beat South Korea in 25 to 40 years if they just increase their birth rate).
So while Japan and South Korea implode (and ripple effects hit the West ontop of Europe's decline), America itself is not one of the best demographics, if you remove the importation of foreigners (and it's debatable whether a 400 million United States of Mexico in 2050 will be as effective as a 250 million America of the 1990's, you can't just replace the entire population and culture and expect that entity to be just as efficient and stable).
Already, the mass importation of H1B workers is causing hugely destabilizing effects in the USA, one of which is about to be felt in real estate. San Francisco/Silicon Valley are starting to see home prices decline over 20% in the past 2 months as IT sector started layoffs, and there is a real question if the millions of H1B's, for example Indians, less than 20% of whom had citizenship back in 2008, now over 60% of them have gotten citizenship, are they going to stick around in a 8.5% inflation USA with 2% GDP growth? Or head back to India which has 7.0% inflation and 7.3% growth, yes you read that right. India has less inflation than America. What a joke America is now! I remember many of my indian friends one of their complaints about India when moving to America was how it's economy was unstable with high inflation, but now India has less inflation and more growth/stability than the American economy.
So if America lays off 2 million Indian IT workers during a recession, now that they have citizenship they have no reason to stick around and be jobless during an economic slowdown in the USA, when they could take their millions back to India's booming economy and live like kings. The fewer millions who were here in 2008 did not have citizenship yet so they toughed out the storm in order to get citizenship. Same is true of other H1B and other economic migrants. If things here get worse than 2008 levels, then even Illegals may go back to Mexico if the jobs dry up here which would in turn cause rental vacancies to skyrocket. It could be a domino effect. So imagine millions of houses spilling onto the market.
Importing tens of millions of people who are economic migrants with no loyalty to the nation, and who could easily return home (they are not slaves, and most have family in their home countries they'd like to go back to see) is a recipe for disaster if we face another Great Recession worse than 2008 (even if it doesn't reach Great Depression levels, if it does, then we're screwed). There can be a domino effect. If a million Indian H1B workers leave, they leave 1 million houses on the market, collapsing real estate dramatically (even 1% of American houses spilling on the market at the same time can lead to a 50% decline in home values if there isn't enough demand). Add onto that fact that many people in houses or apartments may move back in with their parents at a rate never seen before in history, and then if that domino gets too out of hand even the hired help/illegals may decide to bail (and then free up millions of apartments and rental homes, causing rents to plummet). And since most of America's wealth is tied up in their real estate values, it's basically game over for the USA.
Meanwhile, in China, if demographics is such a problem, 2 years ago they implemented 3 child policy, and this past year they lifted all population restrictions. Next step will be possibly incentives, but China has noted that incentives didn't work in the west, so they may actually start taxing/punishing unmarried, childless adults. They banned video games except for 1 hour on Saturdays, and then banned boy bands and other male models to masculinize their society and remove unrealistic expectations of women in who they mate with. And now some Chinese provincial governments are starting to mandate attendance at dating events for unmarried young adults. China can deal with this problem because it's not subject to voter backlash like the USA is. It can just mandate away feminism and mandate marriage and births.
This is why mainstream media collapsing and good podcast shows are the old television as knowledge
@@fool9111z Nathan Rich is a CCP shill.
I think Peter is interesting but he has quite literally predicted the collapse of every country that is not in North America 😂
Very interesting and informative. Thank you.
Peter Drucker predicted the demographic challenge faced by China in 1988.
Well, it’s pretty easy to know that when a nation limits the amount of children you can have and the majority of babies that were born were males, your population will collapse later down the road.
Damn, I knew the population situation in China was really bad...
... but I had somehow managed to forget rule number 1: always multiply by "worst case scenario to account for unreliable data".
The more secretive they are about the data, the more you should suspect the worst, or even worse than that.
It's even worse in Europe, but not in a raw numbers sense. It's really about who is having kids, and it's...um...not people native to Europe.
@@taylorc2542 It makes no difference to the sustainability of European economies whether they are "native to Europe" or not (if anything, migrant workers tend to be more productive than natives). But if your concern is more "cultural" than anything else (i.e. filtered though a prism of more or less racist assumptions and prejudices), then I suppose it matters quite a lot.
It does make a difference, just ask Ukraine. Russian immigrants who immigrated during Soviet times have now risen up and taken quarter of the country with the help of their home country.
Russians didn't become Ukrainian and nor will non Europeans become European.
@@vampireducks1622 You got a source on that claim that says migrant workers are more productive ?
Immigration can be a net economic benefit, if its controlled over time. Where you can pick Iranian nuclear scientists which is more productive than average native. But is it comparable to the millions of migrants, with little to no secondary education, dont know the language of which they migrate ? Have to spend alot of money for them to even be productive.
Which also is true with natives, but I dont see how you can say they are productive.
Great conversation
Good show thank you, very informative.
Never heard of this guy before. Gonna have to listen to the rest of the interview later. The upsidedown demographics in industrialized nations is already a well established phenomena. Turns out population growth isn't gonna be a problem so much as finding ways to motivate successful young adults to have families.
And more specifically successful young women.
@@AUniqueHandleName444 successful young women and childless aren't mutually exclusive.
And Americans wanting to work for 65 yrs. Like my children and my father working in a coal mine.
@@doomedbook1020 No, but there is a inverse relationship between income levels and number of children for women. And high income levels are also a negative predictor for long term marital success for women as well.
@@pmmw8468 not sure what you mean. Do you mean that working till you're 65 is a problem for industrialized nations?
The agriculture thing is terrifying, especially considering someone is going around and burning down food processing plants.
Can you say manufactured crisis?
Is that a reference to Ukraine Russia? Or where are they being burned?
@@xidaq4998 It's happening all over, but seems that China is getting the brunt of the damage. I believe the issue is the same all over. Standards are lowered to keep food prices competitive. This includes safety devices such as fire suppression systems, not repairing barely functioning equipment and no safety training such as fire drills.
@@orlock20 freaking sad man.
If China can shrink its population enough, the Chinese may well become self-sufficient in food.
The face at 0.48...thats beyond wild!! 😄
Great information, it really changes my understanding perception of social changes based on advancement and social polices.
The irony is he mentioned New Zealand and yet it’s missing of the map behind him 🤣🇳🇿
Also in top 20 countries with the most population percentage in only one city (2019 a third of population)... so not so spread out.
Yes, that fantastically accurate map.
The map is also irritating me and I am not very good at geography.
Also means that 2/3rds of the population is very spread out. But it seems to me that much of the population increase is immigration, and Auckland is heading to 1/3 Asian, 1/3 Pacific Islander/Maori, and 1/3rd European.
Peter is spot on about Western Australia 'not having soil in the way we think of the term'. This is the most fascinating (and frightening) interview I've listened to in ages. Thank you.
What is the soil like then?
So how come WA exports so much grain? Another bumper crop this year.
@@UpliftedCapybara i think it's just sand. i live there and basically every is just sand lol. that being said it's a massive state i might be wrong in some areas maybe there is good soil. western australia is geologically very old, so for reasons ive forgotten means we don't have fertile soil.
@@shamicentertainment1262 We have to add trace elements. Farmland all over the world gets fertilized.
Perth's coastal plain is mostly sand, but east of the escarpment it is different. More clay in it.
No what he’s talking about is the need for phosphate fertilizer in WA. It’s not that WA doesn’t have soil per se, it’s more that it’s phosphate hungry, and phosphate is in very short supply at present. As to the nature of WA soils, on the coastal plains, they are very sandy but there are generally better loams inland, however the sandy soils with increased humus and organic matter have become incredibly productive. WA’s agricultural production, especially grains has gone through the stratosphere in recent decades from around 7 million tonnes in the 1980’s to over 25 million tonnes in 2022, largely due to minimum till techniques conserving soil moisture and greatly improving soil structures, and far better weed control from glyphosate and post emergent selective weedicide chemicals.
Nice knowledge, thank you Chris
Thank you,,,
It's fascinating that for decades we've been told that population growth would lead to the downfall of countries and even the planet. Now it looks like what's going to take out major powers will be population decline
Population shrinkage isn't a decline. Unless you are a capitalist who wants to gobble up the earth's resources at an ever faster and faster rate.
The Bible knows. Ittl go down like the mouse eutopia experiment.
Not really, if the population decline is steady. It is fine. To build a strong modern military, it is not population but money and cashflow.
I don’t feel bad for the Chinese government they killed millions of girls and now the very thing they wanted to get rid of they realize they need for the survival of the entire country. They made their bed they need to lie in it!
nonsensical theory, almost all rural chinese family have 2-3 children. Years back, most rural chinese families don't actually report their 2nd, 3rd, or 4th child.
I did enjoy that, I will clink the link to the full version, and I have subscribed! Appreciated the content, you seemed to ask poignant, directed questions, and your guest was wonderfully articulate. Thanks! First time caller, AND never listed before, but if more of your content is the same, I look forward to be a subscriber - Cheers (AND shared!)
This was an excellent conversation 😊
Keep dearming my wee lad !!!
Who would have guessed that Chad pops out the most kids per capita…
😄😄😄😄
@@chriswatson1698 lol do you think they just got by hearsay or sumin?
@@Rosskles In western countries, there are bureaucracies that keep track of people. I doubt that many of the countries in Africa have the institutions that require accurate demographic data.
@@chriswatson1698 Gotcha, see your point now.
It’s cuz he’s a Chad 😂
Overcounted by 100 million people, 2/3 probably would have been girls (who may have been drown in buckets in rural areas so the parents could try again for a son). Populations collapsed more dramatically during the Medieval Black Death, weakening the ruling class warlords and strengthening a merchant class that led to the Renaissance. What will our Renaissance moment be?
Except the black death affected the entire world, every society become drastically different, so its gonna be less Western Renaissance, more American Indian style civilizational collapse
How billion people how many billion and all the Indians starving to death?????????
to the black plague succeded a tremendous economic growth, ressources were plentyful , land was avalable , it happened all over Europe. So maybe some countries will have population collapse, but it might be followed by a new population growth, because who will be left, will have everything at their disposal. We should all do like Japan, buckle up , not try to compensate by population replacement, protect our civilizations. It'll be a transitory crisis.
@@RegalBeagle1776 exactly! This right now is the enlightenment and our future is a long Dark Age.
Rainbow sidewalks
That was one of best interviews I’ve heard and I watch a lot.
What is the confidence rating and what is the rate of decline. How have these figures being calculated. How do different models compare.
Keep up the content man, great volley of conversation. You are well on your way to the top
I just found your channel by accident. I’ve already forwarded this interview to all my family. I’m subscribed and eager to see more! Thank you.
The Comedy Channel
Excellent analysis and info.
Excellent interview. ❤
I'm glad you made this clip. It's nice to have something to show to when I explain to people that the current view on the world is a bit shallow.
2 things. First, thank you for this great interview Chris. Also, I love seeing the progression in your channel. You have quickly moved up my "must listen" list. You're up there with Rogan, Fridman, Ferriss for me now. Keep up the great work. Very interesting stuff.
yh, there's more i want to listen to :)
I’m not sure long form interviews like this that only present one viewpoint are terribly informative for people who aren’t already familiar with the specific discipline/field being discussed. Especially not when the subject speaks so confidently, making it seem as if their analysis is simply objective fact. It can lead viewers who aren’t familiar with counter-narratives and associated evidence to draw the wrong conclusions.
@@lorrie1397I don't agree. Like his voice and speech
. nod his progression n unique guests ovrtime= a dlght ^
Yeah Chris is very level headed
Why cant China re establish a balanced economy after reducing to 600 to 800 million population? Regardless of timeframe. Handling the elderly, retirement and health systems would be a challenge but achievable with a common goal. Problems create opportunities.
I took some college courses here in America back around 2013 2014 and was in a class with a couple of Chinese students also studying. They spoke English very well and we’re very friendly and in a conversation I had with them I brought up the subject of China’s, “one child only“ policy and they were pretty quiet but I said, “that means there’s no brothers, no sisters, no cousins, no nieces, no nephews, no aunts, and no uncles. That isn’t a normal human society.” I went on to tell them that I’m the seventh child of a family of nine children and they were astonished. But concerning my comments about the policy, The girl was very sweet but spewed out the propaganda she was taught that there’s just too many people in China. The dude was much more honest he didn’t like it either, and he said, “if you’re rich enough in China you can have more than one child.“ he knew it was messed up. It’s scary how much this policy has damaged that country. Really terrible. Shocking.
Even more damaging would have been NO one child policy. The draconian methods were probably not necessary, but the Chinese would be like Africa is now, but far worse off, without population control.
Having Peter on your episode will boost your subscriptions. I subscribed after viewing your channel. ... and gave you a well deserved like.
This was so excellent! (thumbs up/subscribed and bookmarked) ... which is something I very rarely do. Keep up the good work please :)
Wow thank you knowledge is wisdom. ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
What an interesting discussion!
My friend just told me about this. I just can’t believe that. Its insane.
It actually makes sense. Abortions, young people getting married later, women avoiding pregnancy via contraception- this has consequences
@@BlueBobbinthose are such minor factors, apart from having later marriages. But even that comes down to the massively higher cost of living today, couples cannot afford to raise a child.
Brilliant expositiom. Left me breathless.
Peter is so intelligent. I could listen to his knowledge for hours. I would love his information specifically on the U.S.
I am skeptical. In Europe after the plague decimated the population we got the renaissance. There was more wealth per person. China may benefit from a smaller population.
Yeah but the plague killed off the elderly, China's going to be majority elderly people which is something else entirely. It will put a huge burden on the few young people so how will they be able to benefit from it?
Plague to renaissance was 200 years though
Here's china's problem. The primary way the country makes money is by making everyone's stuff. A "good" work schedule for the average Chinaman is 6 12's, meaning 6 12 hour days. Well when HALF of the country is retired the only way to pump out more manufacturing goods is either to get more efficient or hire more people. Theoretically they're already efficient AND working their people to the bone BUT they're not having kids. It's obscenely expensive to live in China and every woman remembers how they were treated by the one child policy.
Having a small population works well for countries like Japan because they make their money by innovating new technology. China is going to have to get used to the thought of making half of their GDP because they'll only have half their labor pool they have now.
Except that they only wanted boys. Severe shortage of women and with modernization, they aren't in any hurry to marry.
The fertility rate remained high during the plague. The problem is low fertility, not reduced population
Very informative, thank you
Very well done interview sir. Thank you for the education.
Proper analyst
Remember that as temperatures rise, rice growing becomes difficult (rice can't self fertilize, grain is poor in quality). This is affecting rice agriculture in many places, including China).
Thanks for the video, really shines the light on the world around me.
Fantastic analysis! Reasonable, measured, thoughtful. Something you don't see much with analysts trying to drive a talking point. Sure, there is a talking point, but he has it backed up... very little conjecture. Look forward to seeing the rest.
at 9:27 he says it's difficult getting good information from China - except this guy of course
at 12:00 he says that China will have a food collapse - if only you could, instead of starving, say, import food from countries such as Russia or Ukraine. Plenty of countries already do that, and I imagine China has more purchasing power than many of the other food importers. But his conclusion is that China needs to invade India, Vietnam, etc. 12:30 Taiwan and Japan could go nuclear in a month so that just leaves Russia (which presumably can not go nuclear in a month) - sounds totally moronic to me.
Also, the argument that you need space to grow your population... Palestine is doing a good job of growing their population and population density despite very little land
@ bravado7
It always boggles my mind when people also say Africa is overpopulated.
@@mikecarlton9000 People say the dumbest things.
Also, maps are not really accurate in that if you want to turn a ball into a cylinder, you need to shrink locations in the middle (Africa) and expand places on the end (Greenland, Russia, and Antarctica)
Africa is the second largest continent in the world. It also has the second largest population in the world.
@@mikecarlton9000it is all relative to the food supply. Did you ever see the Sam Kinison skit about people living in the middle of the desert?
well that was insightful.
I refuse to accept that less people as 'terrifying'. It'll be different, but different economics is not something to be afraid of. It will never lead to zero, that's ludicrous.
I keep saying it will change some societies and cause people to move and intermingle. The human race will just adjust in the same way it has before through out history.
Look up the universe 25 experiment... it leads to 0
@@TheEggroll4321 Modelling? Like COVID modelling or climate modelling? You can only believe it could lead to zero if you ignore anything that humans are or what they do.
One of the most informative interviews I´ve seen in years - and I follow Pinker, Harari, Shermer and more closely!
Should also follow Joe rogan and you have the hole package 👊
Have a great weekend!
Absolutely fascinating
I agree with you about agriculture and of the opinion that we need to move to hydroponic farming
Amazing how much this man knows
The thing this guy didn’t mention regarding France is it’s not the native ethnic French population that’s growing. The native French population is contracting as dramatically as the Japanese and Koreans. I expect that the newer expanding group will challenge the native French for control of pockets of that country within a decade or 2 that could lead to major social unrest and upheaval that will jeopardise the viability of the EU.
The blacks will take over France !
@@joekerr9036 It’s not really the Africans, it’s the Berbers and Arabs of North Africa and the Middle East mainly that are growing at a high birth rate. Shari’a will come to Paris. It’s already in the northern suburbs.
They’ll cause as much disruption as Irish/Italian immigrants to the USA a century ago.
@@sirmount2636 It will be far greater. It could lead to civil war.
@@wattlebough LOL
Amazing and fascinating insights!
This guy is fascinating!
Whenever I hear somebody say, “for sure”, I’m skeptical.
Bro when he said the Chinese population will drop to 650 million my stomach dropped, that's insane. I would rather have a wealthy China than a poor China w/nukes
Why would China become poor just because they have less people? When America only had 50 million it was still a wealthy prosperous country. Endless growth is impossible so at some point the population needs to decrease to something more sustainable and stable
@@Montezuma0 the problem is that if they keep having more old people then young the economi will collaps that could mean war and a lot of suffering wich in turn makes the population growth worse.
It will propabley be stable again some day but in the mean time it will be brutal for china and probably the world.
@@sabelotoda2 Short term it’s bad but long term it’s more sustainable. You can’t just have unlimited population growth forever. It’s impossible. Better to decrease the population to something more sustainable and then keep the birth rate stable
@@Montezuma0 the idesl is too have a stable population you do that by having a birth rate of 2.1 so that the population dose not shrink but dose not gorw either.
That how i took the first coment in the short ther the conditions could get sooo bad that it could lead too nuclear war.
In the best sanatio they would have a 2.1 birth rate alredy but they dont have it and who knows how much time will pass before they change it.
There is something you need to take into consideration in the gender imbalance.
1. Materialistic mindset in many women. They want to leverage their beauty for a potential "high value " suitor. For some women it is annual salary and net worth that is set at a minimum number.
2. Independent mindset to want their own money from a career instead of wanting to start a family.
3. Waste of time 16 to 35 are prime child bearing years, but it is spent working to aquire material gain.
This actually sounds like really good news to me. Losing population isn't a bad thing when you are as severely overpopulated like our planet is. America has much less than 650 million and is very strong economically.
This doesn't lead to zero population. If they make China a nice country people will want to live there and people will move there if China wants more people.
A fascinating interview and a perspective that many, including myself, haven't considered. What's predicted may not necessarily happen because variables can change but it does highlight the dangers lurking in the background. It must be beared in mind that food will become an extremely important resource and weapon.
how do you know what he says is true???? you need to take these youtubevids with a lot of salt nowadays.
I used to read Zeihan a lot but have found his analysis, though interesting, does not play out.
Thank you Peter I always learn so much with you.
Chirs's face at 0:49 is priceless!
He said it first
You were right , Peter
I wondered where my anxiety went. Found it by the end of this video.
What frightens me the most as our interview is going on here I was researching the guest’s claims on china from population to soil and lol it’s all verified by reputable reporting including chinas own report after 40 years. Mind blowing data in a clip. Well Done gentleman.
Yep l'd rather stay in New Zealand 🇳🇿 thankyou, best place in the world !
We have the same problem. Not enough money coming in to pay SS and Medical.
This stuff is soo interesting.
Whoa ok this is shocking. I'm getting on that full episode now, thanks Chris.
Well worth it. I hadn't heard of Peter until I came across the full episode, and he's now one of the top half dozen people I want to keep up with.
@@haroldfarquad6886 Pretty mind-blowing. As much as I might not like the idea of China becoming the world superpower, if the country collapses there will be a lot of suffering worldwide.
As a Canadian, who has been seeing a steadily increasing influx for decades now of Chinese investment and investors looking for ways to get their wealth out of the Chinese system, as well as exit strategies for themselves, I have an idea where some of the missing 100 million people may have gone. Real estate markets in major Canadian cities have been significantly affected by this phenomenon, and even in smaller cities on the prairies properties can be found which were purchased purely as investments and have been left empty. I’ve heard a number of horror stories about owners who apparently didn’t understand that you can’t just shut off all utilities to a home in Canada for several months when you take a trip back to China. Many branches of major Canadian banks, even on the prairies, make a point now of always having at least one teller on duty who speaks Mandarin.
One wonders how corn could possibly have grown at all, before the emergence of the fertilizer sector. (academics spend very little time on farms)
The one child policy was required as part of the "favored nation trading partner" status for a trade treaty from 1972. Outcome was known.
new zealand has leveraged off its clean and green reputation for a long time but the reality in terms of loss of tree canopy, loss of soils, pollution and water quality paints a very different picture.
What is the difference in timelines of the Chinese food production decline and population decline? Perhaps the change in demand/supply will equalise the difference?
It's not easy to determine resource production. It depends on other factors besides supply of resource such as lower wages, lack of regulation, ease of corruption of politicians. Countries that have high production may in fact not have as much of the resource as countries such as Canada, higher wages and strict regulation and lack of corruption. Potash is the perfect example
The unknown factor here that’s not discussed is the rise of AI and robot labor
Robot labor put you out of work. Now you’re broke.
@@rayhill5767 what if the robot allows me to stay in the house as a pet while the AI goes to work
According to an estimate by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the average age of the population in 2020 was 44.7 years. By 2050, it is estimated that about one-quarter of the population will be over 65 years old.
Similarly to other parts of the world, aging in China will also result in challenges for the healthcare system and the economy. It is important that China takes measures to address the impacts of aging, including promoting health and well-being in old age, supporting older people in work, and promoting innovative solutions for caring for and supporting older people.
Unfortunately that's a rosier prediction then most leading experts. And that's in a 25 year context.
By 2100 China's population is expected to be around 580 million people... unsustainable for a country China's size.
How the heck is this even possible?
Zephaniah looks like Jonathan Ross playing a last of us character
What most of these alarmists never mention is that mankind is very adaptable. We don't just sit there and allow these events to roll over us.
I'm old enough to remember the alarmists who warned of over population, acid rain, a cooling earth, nuclear destruction and drought.
None of which came true.
I think that was true in a world with cheap oil and fossil fuels. It will be less so as time goes on. We definitely are clearing a lot of land and there is a lot less wild habitat then there used to be, globally. You can see the time lapse of the amazon or borneo. Dunno about you, but being in Poland has made me think about the threat of nukes flying at any point. As for droughts, we have definitely seen an increase in those, this year I went to the UK and its was the driest I'd ever seen. Similar phenomenon have caused issues in China, Lebanon, Syria, Australia. When it does rain, it rains too much at once and tends to flood.
So does he count wrongly? Is there suddenly going to pop up many 30 years old men and women in China? Out of nowhere? No no no no
That means babies lots of babies ought to have been born 30 years ago.
Any Boomer would recognize that list…
Precisely. He gets off on it.
True. Mankind is adaptable and several of those things alarmists exaggerated and warned against in the past haven't come to past.
I would like to point out though, that a fair amount of these things were "new" threats that hadn't come true in the past and had little to no real history to back up their claims. There is also the fact that a fair amount of alarmists are shooting their alarm for more government funding. Something like population decline does have real history of being a problem if its not taken seriously.
Several nations throughout history have had economic collapses because of population decline. The only reason this really should matter to us in present day is because China is trade partners with so many other nations that it will effect us if they have a population decline. I do think they will adapt, but at what cost?
They will either have to use force to make people have more kids or they will import new people through mass migration. My thinking is they will be more likely to use force. I can't see them giving up their nationalism, leaving behind their attitude of superiority and inviting non Chinese in to replace them.
It's a scary proposition for China.
I wonder what Peter thinks of America's society and the way it's imploding from the inside out... The corrupt perpetuaion of the system and how it's completely unstoppable
America is rome 2.0
The US is totally self-sufficient in food and, if the government gets out of the way, self-sufficient in energy in less than a year. We're about as safe a country as there has ever been. Neither Mexico nor Canada is a threat to us. Yes, the Canadians burned down the White House, but that was back in 1812 and we've pretty well forgiven them for that. Mexico tried and we wound up getting almost half of what was Mexico for our own. Much more profitable working with us than against us. The other two sides have huge moats on them protected by a navy that could take on the combined navies of the rest of the world several times over. No one is invading us here in the states. It's been 80 years since anyone has tried and all they got were a few Aleutian islands for a few months before we got around to kicking them off. There were territories we got from the Spanish-American war that Japan took and we had to take back, but nothing else on our home soil. Our demographics are not an inverted pyramid. More like a chimney. Not great, but not bad. We have great ports and more navigable inland waterways plus the intercostals, than any other country in the world and it's ten times cheaper to ship by boat or barge than rail (of which we also have an excellent system) or trucks (which drive on a really good interstate system). Only about 15% of our economy is engaged in any sort of direct foreign trade and half of that is with Mexico and Canada. We just aren't as geographically, structurally, or economically exposed to the same hazards as almost all of the rest of the developed and developing world is.
Not saying we don't have problems. We do. Lots of them. But not existential ones like having your population shrinking every year with the average ages going up and up. We're going to be dealing with a labor shortage, at least for a while, but I think we can handle the scale that we're looking at here.
What happens when a population ages? Once someone hits retirement, they're gone, overnight. They are no longer working and paying taxes and contributing anything. Instead, they start drawing pensions and Social Security and Medicare. They take all their investments and move them to super safe assets so capital availability dries up. Their years of experience are simply gone. Almost nowhere are there enough people in the generations behind them to fill their shoes.
In some countries, like Russia, where they gave up on education, the generations coming up aren't really even halfway trained to take the jobs of those close to retiring. Not to mention the huge brain drain it's been going through in the last six months and especially in the last week or so. They're heavy in the contingent of the very few (primarily tech workers) who were qualified and filling important roles that no one else is educationally capable of taking over. That loss may well be worse for them in the longer term than what they're going though simply by being cut off of many goods by the sanctions. The multinationals that have pulled out have taken their expertise with them as well. The Russian technicians who worked with them may know that this valve got turned and then that one, but not know why or when to do it.
Even in the rest of the world though, there aren't as many young people buying cars and homes and paying for education and raising a family. So who buys the consumer goods that are being manufactured? You can't sell it in your own country because you don't have enough consumers anymore and almost all the other countries you try to sell to are in the same boat. If you can't sell it, you can't make it. If you can't make it, then the businesses start closing. Your economy shrinks.
Japan was the first developed country to hit this wall. They didn't have a Baby Boomer generation. Their "lost decade" has now lasted for more than three decades. With many fewer working age people, they automated the heck out of everything they could. They built factories in the places where they sell their goods and where there are still workers. There's a dozen or more countries ready to hit that wall in the next decade or so. Japan got there first. It's going to be a lot harder for the rest, even if they are a big enough economy to have the money to try to do the automation and production moves and many, if not most of them, aren't big enough to try.
America has lasted for 250 yrs, been through a civil war, two world wars, industrial age, information age, the Constitution still stands. As long as the Constitution stands, our ocean moats intact and our soil fertile, we will always prosper.
@@robbenvanpersie1562 Rome lasted 500 years. Thats nothing to scoff at and Rome was too large for its own good during a time when internet connectivity wasn’t a thing.
@@pugilist102 your beloved nation has illegally invaded, done dozens of coups, backed extremists, sanctioned, bombed and threatened dozens more.seeing as it's immune from condemnation, reparations, or even a fair trial in international courts to address it's exceptionalism. One day the fight will come to your homeland and that will be a massive dose of karma. If infighting doesn't bring down your democracy (it's already captured and declining fast) then it's weakening dollar, unipolar shift and growing district and dislike of your nation will render it a side note in history.
Read Bobby Kennedys Anthony faucci to understand how corrupt, and foul America has become.
Some American people are fantastic and hardworking folk but are drowned out by the dipshit uneducated uncultured self righteous maniacs that govern your sick nation,
same thing happened to the passenger pigeon...
I just learnedy more infhe past 15 minutes....,
.
*While Zeihan is largely correct about China's demographics, he got a lot of basic facts really wrong (and I stopped counting at @**1:40**).*
1) Mao had nothing at all to do with the 1-child policy; he died in 1976, the policy was launched in 1980.
2) Mao actually urged families in the 1950s to have loads of kids; Mao believed China would out-man the West (you can still find posters with that message from the time).
3) Chinese started having fewer kids - on their own - due to the famines of the 1950s that Mao's Great Leap Forward caused.
4) The 1-child policy came out in 1980; the 2-child policy came out later (not before as Zeihan claimed) in 2016.
*Point being, the guy rattled off 4 talking points...and every single one was wrong. That doesn't mean his analysis is wrong per se, but it does mean he's either sloppy or ill-informed.*
Literally has zero effect on the demographics.
@@chasethehorizonx _Literally has zero effect on the demographics._ If a pundit came out talking about US politics today but then referred to the US as a former colony of Portugal, a former monarchy, a homogeneous ethnic population, and backwards technologically, you or I would be taken aback because he was so blatantly wrong about those aspects. Naturally, we'd wonder about the pundit's credentials.
Ignorantia veritatis est periculosa.
If someone says something with enough confidence it must be true
@@nathannguyen09 And it works on zombies. Especially on those who believe authorities and are ideologically blinded. That's the beauty of propaganda...
Chris, your show keeps getting better and better. Keep it up!
Yeah man, he's up there wit Lex and Rogan in content and guest selection. I'm here for it!!!
Love the name, Pickler!
Never underestimate how easily unchecked government can destroy a civilization.
This happened back in the early 2000s. China has been lying about their population size i remember reading stuff online back then that was skeptical that China actually had over 1 billion people living in it and im willing to be they probably never did or if they did it was for maybe a handful of years before they declined and have been lying about it in order to keep investors intrested in China
I doubt it
I'm Nigerian living in Nigeria what he says about sub Saharan African countries having importation problems is true
South Africa just dumped tonnes of oranges because of a disagreement with the EU, they're creating these problems on purpose because of EU made a silly new law about temperature in storage
I remember when Rhodesia was the bread basket of sub Saharan Africa and an exporter.
@@kieranh2005 that is sounding suspiciously like heresy old man
@@kieranh2005 it's called Zimbabwe.
At 4:34, Chris laterally evacuated his shorts when Peter mentioned the USA.
This guy is fantastic at weddings and other festive activities ..
So Chinese population is collapsing and, at the same time China doesn't have enough food. It seems that less population is good in that scenario, especially when one considers that farming doesn't require much human labour anymore.
But farming does require tools and machinery which run on some sort of fuel or are reliant on some infrastructure. Which means workers are needed to prodice fueal and to build and maintain the infrastructure. But the population problem, specifically, is that there aren't enough births which means there will be less and less young people to work those jobs.