Debunking the 5.3 theory or "Dad, have you reached the top yet?" theory. Spoiler: nah...
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- Опубліковано 9 тра 2024
- So many people are worried about the Crypto Crew University video:
• WARNING: Bitcoin WON’T...
or similar arguments given P. Brandt and others that I need to give an alternative point of view based on a more scientific argument. We are going through my Medium article here:
/ a-scientific-approach-... - Наука та технологія
Fabulous work, Dr. G! Thank you for your continued tireless efforts! ❤💪🏻🍕
Part of Steve's 5.3 theory includes this larger market cycle reset. Where after that 10 year reset he admits Bitcoin would obviously eventually go higher than his 85k presumed top this cycle.
I'm currently reading a 90 to 95k next target. From current trend as of 5/11/2024.
The problem with current TA read, there are alot of mixed signals outside of what appears to be an obvious 4th wave correction into a possible 5th wave to about 90k this year.
The kicker is a 2M candle pattern which indicates a reversal trend, that he's pointing out.
Other than that, there are other patterns which appear to require a play out to the downside before a final 5th wave, if it doesn't just completely invalidate the current upward trend all together.
At which case, I still believe 58k is solid foundation for BTC that ought to hold, before it resolves the little bumps in the road for a Bullish continuation of the upward trend.
That's what TA can tell.
But for all my insights, there are mixed signals.
It is all TA and therefore astrology.
@quantonomy Surely, it's better than astrology.
I'm grateful for Steve calling the top in the 70s. Cashed out. It's all downhill from here. Strange cycle (who would have that we would blowoff top before the halving).
I agree, strange cycle, but obviously the ETF played a massive part in the price discrepancy at this stage of the cycle
Grazie 😊
Bitcoin power law vs 5.3 theory who will win
Thanks for the insightful presentation. Q1. Do you think other crypto assets such as ETH also follow power-law? Q2. Do you think using BTC Market Cap instead of the price provides any new insight? Q3. Is the slope of the bottom trend (red line) the same as the "fair value" or "mid-line" slope? Thank you.
No, they down ETH has a R^2 of 0.64 when fitted with a power that is not much better than noisy data.
BTC cap is nothing else than coins x price and we have already almost all the coins in circulation. Plus the supply is a simple function of time so it is going to corrupt the price data. Price is better.
perfect Dr , I hope there was a share button on youtube
Can someone tell me at which point in the video that Steve’s 5.3 theory is referenced?
Steve's 5.3 theory is the same theory as mentioned in the video.
@@quantonomy can you tell me the timestamp? I could not find where in the video that the 5.3 theory is referenced
I love your work but please invest in sound proofing and equipment. Or just turn your phone off 😂
Excellent work Doc..as usual. But I have a confession..... while you absolutely deserve to have everyone listen to you and you get 1 gazillion followers, selfishly.... I hope only the few of us who believe and follow you, get it....at least for a few more years 😉
I watch both channels I think Bitcoin power law will win
I respect you and your work but you clearly dont understand Steve’s 5,3 theory. It doesnt violate the power law in any way. I hope you will make an updated video so i can hear your thoughts after you have understood the theory
Doesn’t Steve suggest that we crash below 30k after that? Power Law says we’ll never go below 30k ever again.
In which sense I don't understand the 5.3 claim? It is exactly how I explain it here. No more or less.
@@quantonomy it doesnt violate the power law
@@RasmusHenkel Listen to the video. It is not a matter of violation. It is a matter of not separating what is due to the general power law trend and what is due to the decay of the bubbles. The only reasonable way to understand the bubbles is as deviations from the trend.
Steve we don't reach 100 K in this cycle. We reach 100 K in April 2025 as general trend and we should be higher because the bull market will start in December. His idea is wrong.
Dude, get a proper mic if you are gonna talk science technicals for 85 minutes straight.
The mic is good, I just need to put it closer to me. I tried that in the most recent video and audio improved a lot. Next is sound proofing the room. It is noisy because it is close to the road.
Get a better mic
True. Also I need to put it closer I think.