I'm a meteorologist and full time cruiser. These are my forecasting tools.
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- Опубліковано 7 бер 2019
- This is the short list of sites I use when we have cell or wifi:
www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES...
www.windy.com/
www.weatheronline.co.uk
www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/...
mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guida...
mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html
This is what we use offshore through Iridium Go:
www.predictwind.com/why-predi...
*Secret Podcast* www.sailclarity.com/podcast
I wrote a couple books and narrated some audiobooks in case you are interested. Buy them and I will be rich!
Get Her on Board is about getting that significant other to buy into this cruising nonsense. People seem to like it. All proceeds go to our dog Sugar.
Book:
www.amazon.com/dp/0578057298/...
Audiobook: www.audible.com/pd/B00CIE9I1I...
Live on the Margin is about making money on the go trading stocks and options. I co-wrote it with Pat Schulte of Bumfuzzle. People seem to like that one too. All proceeds donated to our boat.
Book: www.amazon.com/dp/0578116642/...
Audiobook: www.audible.com/pd/B00CMCGHPQ...
Audiobooks:
Bumfuzzle - Just out Looking for Pirates.
You know these guys, and now you know me, so have a listen.
www.audible.com/pd/B00CWJISRE...
Bound for Distant Seas, by James Baldwin
James is the real deal and this his story of adventure aboard a small, simple boat.
www.audible.com/pd/B015HQBDWU... - Наука та технологія
Would love to see more on the differences between the different models, when to use each, etc. I learned more in this video than watching almost every other major sailing channels coverage of the same topic because those people weren't professional forecasters. Great info!
Wow, to do it right it might be ten videos-it's a really deep subject...one of those deals where you never stop learning. Kind of like sailing. Well, thanks for the comment and suggestion. I have to think about it because it is so situational. Maybe I just do an informal sort of forecast discussion. Crazy thought---maybe do it live? Hmmm... Appreciate the feedback. No other channels talking weather? Really? That's pretty much 90% of what we are thinking about here from an operational standpoint. Almost every cruiser conversation is about batteries or weather...
Dear Nick, Thank you so much. Three things are striking clear - your indepth knowledge, very well thought out presentation and last but not least - a most beautiful voice that every lecturer would wish to have. You are truly gifted. This is simply the best forecasting lesson I have come across. Thank you is not enough.
you are very kind. Thank you Joseph
Just seeing this, but this is outstanding, and I would like to see more like this, perhaps dumbed down a bit as 'intro to forecasting' that explains a bit more about how weather works, and why the models account for things or don't. Beyond getting the average wind, understanding what makes for gusting, squalls and thunderstorms, would be great. Understanding what makes seas confused is another good exploration. Or perhaps you best recommendations on books to learn from. Anyway, I love your videos so far. Great Job!
Thanks! You inspired me to do a weather video today. A livestream on youtube. Going to do a synoptic and routing discussion on Delos transit of the Atlantic. Appreciate the feedback!
Excellent information. I work as a ship router for the US Navy and you have done a solid job of explaining how models work and their strengths and weaknesses, bias' etc.; Significant wave heights are derived so if the model isn't handling the lower levels of the atmosphere, the seas will be off.
Thanks wxkrunk. I want to do more videos on wx and models. It's such a deeeeeeep subject and how do you avoid the "hey, which model is better?" sort of thing that most people want to hear. I was thinking maybe just a forecast discussion or something. Any ideas? BTW, FNMOC is my go-to a lot of times, but you can't get to it from outside of the US. Can you talk to someone about that? LOL
Great work Nick! Just getting started on info for cruising , lots of help THANKS.
What an awesome look into weather observation and analysis. You are one of my favourite sailing channels, the subs will come with time! Keep up the amazing work!
Thats very nice of you to say. Hope we can keep up our end of the bargain! I can't believe so many people are watching! Notes like these are very inspiring. Thank you.
Excellent information and the way you explain it.
Thank you for sharing and I hope I can use the models and learn from you more.
Thanks Ricardo!
Thank you , I would love the hear more on the subject, you explain things very well.
Thank you Tori. More to come!
Thank you for making a complicated subject very understandable!
Thanks Alan. I could go on and on for hours. This is a very deep subject.
This is truly great information. It is always interesting to . learn about the different WX models and how they differ. We are originally from Northern CA, but have relocated to Fiji and finding that the different models can vary significantly with forecasts particularly in the South Pacific. Thanks for the explanation!
Ted Neal Bula! It’s a pretty deep subject. Could probably make a channel just out of this topic. Going to do some weather routing in the next passage video. NorCal to Fiji....don’t hear that one very often! We’ve lived in the SF Bay Area on and off since the late 90s. Thanks for the comment! Best, Nick
You guys are the best!
I'm an amateur meteorologist who lives in Playa Del Carmen, Mexico (where radar doesn't exist). I am looking to purchase a catamaran from the SE (Probably Ft. Lauderdale) area of the US in the next few months. I look forward to keeping up with your channel and really appreciate all of the links and information you put into this video. After lots of research, I currently use most of these websites you provided, but some I have never heard of. Thank you so much for the video! Subscribed and notification on! Cheers!
Thanks for sharing your knowledge.
Thanks Jonathan!
Great video! I love learning new things from knowledgeable people.
Thanks Jason!
I’m going to have to watch this one a couple more times. There’s a lot of information to digest. Great stuff!! Would like to see a lot more of it. Not many cruisers go the in-depth with weather.
Right on Rusty. Just did a live weather discussion a couple nights ago you might want to check out. It's on my channel. I'll do more of them if I can work out some of the technical hurdles.
Great job...very helpful
Thank you.
Nick that was an awesome informative video. Thank you so much! Best regards from New Zealand
Hey Paul. Thank you! Never been there, but really want to come down and hang out. Looks beautiful. Maybe, someday! Best, Nick
Wow, great information! It would be great for more insights from you as you do your own routing.
Chris, thanks! Going to do exactly that in an upcoming video. The challenge will be keeping it interesting as there is a whole lot less eye candy. But it's the reality of this life, thats for sure.
Thank you so much!!!!! FAIR WINDS!
You too!
Nick once again thank you very informative.
Appreciate it sir!
Great video Nick. I think we all need a little more weather info at passage times to keep us safe. The models are getting better which helps. In our part of the world cyclone season is considered December to end April. (Indian Ocean south east Africa). I have sailed up into this Zone for 2 x December’s as living here for the past 19 years I have not seen a cyclone here til mid January. Next year I am looking at sailing up in early April as I considered this reasonably safe. Sadly this year in Mid March 1000km from me we got hit by the strongest cyclone to hit the African coast cyclone Idia) which caused massive destruction and flooding in the region and over 1000 deaths. Just as we were recovering from this early April cyclone Kenneth hit the country and to date is the highest latitude known cyclone to hit Africa. The only reason the destruction was less is that’s it’s much more rural . This year has broken the “known norms” , some have said that as its unusual next year will be back to normal ? Do you see these patterns changing from the norms in the Caribbean as well ? We don’t have many places to hide here so need to run and create distance as our protection.
There is an old saying...climate is what you expect and weather is what you get. You are talking about a gigantic area, so I don't have any specifics for you unless we can zero in. La Nina doesn't always follow an El Nino and this years is not a particularly strong one yet. So the signal for 2020 (seems weird even typing that date) just aren't there. If I am extremely confident in one thing surrounding climate change is that on average, all cyclone/hurricane prone areas are going to see stronger storms more frequently. Does that mean another Irma in five years? I don't know. But on average, over the next 50-100 years, the places prone to seeing storms will see more and stronger storms. It's not even a question in my mind. Now, having said that, I do think that the avoidance strategies for sailors will remain mostly the same. These storms will not move a whole lot faster on average, and they will be prone to the same unbalancing forces that they always were. Sadly, these storms are going to continue to effect areas where people can't adequately prepare or leave, and that means more casualties. I am by no means an expert on tropical meteorology or climate change, so please feel free to add any research here as I am also quite curious. Thanks, Nick
Great info, thanks for the explanation. Maybe in a later video could you pick a destination and show how you decide when your “weather window” would be based on the modeling? Thanks!
Eddie, thanks for the comment. Yes, weather routing and passage planning coming up as we head north to the US in a week or two or....when weather looks right for it. Stay tuned! Thanks, Nick
A great video, thanks!
Thanks Patrick
Hi Nick, just found your Chanel & have subscribed
We are crossing from the Med to Caribbean in December, then up through the islands , & eventually to Bermuda to them make the return trip to Malta, The Whole trip should take us 12 months..
I watched your video on weather routing, & we are now thinking about the Irriudum Go & PredictWind, as well as zygrib , what do you think?
We really enjoyed your videos, & found then very educational, especially as this is a big passage for us.
Keep the videos coming please
Hey Leonard! Sounds like a great adventure coming your way. Congratulations! Not sure you'll absolutely need zygrib if you've got PredictWind as their model data (GFS) is included in the Predictwind package, but I can see how the zygrib synoptic surface analysis might be helpful if you'd like an easier way to pick out features. Depends on the file sizes there... Thank you so much for the positive feedback. We are just getting into the UA-cam thing and hoping to make vids that are entertaining (to us at least) but also helpful to others heading out this way. I hope we cross paths next year! Thanks for the note. Nick
Cool man thanx for this super vid.
Hey thanks Karl. Could go in so many directions with the weather info. Any tips on what people what to know about meteorologically?
An update on this episode or just a re-release would be good interim content for the channel while you're between boats.
Thanks Nick . You are just a bundle of information Thanks 👍
Fairwinds from the @captains.chair
Many thanks Sir!
Hi Nick, Found your channel about a week ago and really like the content! You mentioned strong temperature gradient in the development of thunderstorms. What would call a strong temperature gradient? Thanks for sharing.
Well, it depends on how stable the atmosphere is vertically....meaning how prone are those convective "bubbles" of air to boil up and release latent heat energy by forming cloud droplets. So in a very unstable atmosphere, a "tight" or "strong" temperature gradient might be just a couple of degrees over a mile or three. In a situation where the atmosphere is "capped" or is inherently less prone to vertical development, it will take a much stronger gradient of perhaps ten or more degrees over a mile two. It is quite situational. In the first example, think of a sea-breeze front on the Florida coast on any summer afternoon....that is a little temperature gradient that kicks off big storms. In the second case, think more of your general cold front dragging across the midwest or SE in the winter. Does that help? I really appreciate the question. I taught undergraduate lab courses when I was in grad school. I enjoy it. BEst, Nick
I'd like to see a series on the effects of El Nino, neutral, and La Nina phases of the ENSO cycle on world cruising routes, particularly tropical routes. Also updates on any scientific consensus that emerges on climate change impacts for the ENSO phases, particularly as this pertains to full time cruisers visiting remote regions of the tropical Pacific.
Another good topic would be the Madden-Julian Oscillation, real time monitoring and what is expected for ENSO interactions.
You forgot the PDO! Lol. Those are some in-depth topics worthy of entire documentaries and I respect the subject too much to make lazy guesses. If I were to speculate (given my operational experience) about overall effects of warming on cruising routes and conditions, is that with the global mean latitudinal temperature gradient decreasing, we are going to see a decoupling of the mean subtropical jet from the mean polar jet. As the two components phase, we are going to see stronger mid-latitude storm systems...much more violent by every metric. When they are completely out of phase (by one or more of the ENSO processes you mention, or completely unrelated), we will see episodes somewhat akin to MJO across other areas. Again, this is just speculation. Your comment really is worthy of some research. I am a bit short of time but now you have me very interested. Maybe I will get back to this one. Thank you for the though-provoking question. Best, Nick
@@TheOKellys
I thought my suggestions were ambitious enough, without bringing the Pacific Decadal Oscillation into it… but if you insist ;)
Seriously though, thanks for the insights. At this point, I doubt there is nearly enough in the literature or readily available data to develop robust, credible analyses with just the questions I already poised, and you may not have an onboard supercomputer handy. So I expect some degree of educated speculation will be unavoidable, particularly since things may be changing as we speak.
In the past, and even a decade ago, it seemed reasonably safe to plan voyages for seasons and general conditions indicated in pilot charts, which I understand were based on historic weather patterns and even work from Mr. Maury and Mr. Dampier. Now, I’m not so sure.
But glad to have your attention on these questions, since understood or not, they are highly germane for those of us who traded in our neck ties for sail ties. At least better understanding the issues I raised may prove highly valuable to present day cruisers. So it would be great if, with your expertise, you could help us all out with that. I certainly look forward to learning more about it, and nothing at all wrong with making it a series of videos!
Excellent
Thanks!
Hi Nick A thought ...... why dont you walk us through a weather forecast for a passage ,say a 3 or 4 day passage, the steps and process . Of course using the various weather apps and how to apply them efficiently.
Just a thought ???
Thanks
Start
I like that Jim. I think I'm going to start with a one-day passage. Since we will head up to Maine in a few weeks, I'll do a longer one then. Good idea! Thanks, Nick
Please more of this. You promised.
Sorry Lars. Been so busy. I need another me that will work for what I pay myself.... LOL. I will get back on it in the next few weeks.
For those who want to actively monitor tropical cyclone development and tracking, CIMSS Tropical Cyclones [ tropic.ssec.wisc.edu ] is also a good resource. As I live in Tokyo, I like to keep a good eye out for the typhoon developments in the Northwestern Pacific.
Good choice for data! Guess where I went to graduate school? UW Madison. SSEC was two floors below my office in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences.
@@TheOKellys Hah! Small world. 😀
You one smart sailor thanks for the info vert helpful
Thanks Jeff. We are students forever. Just passing along the learnings...
I would love to be a meteorologist
Once a meteorologist, always a meteorologist, like doctors and presidents.... lol.
@@TheOKellys I sent you an email on your blog.
What station did you work?
Michael, out of grad school I worked for a company that makes the computers for the graphic used on TV weather segments. Then I got a job at KNTV, the NBC in the SF Bay Area. Then we went cruising. When we came back I worked at KUSA, the NBC in Denver. Then we went cruising again. I came back and worked at KNTV a bit. Along the way, forecasted for dozens of radio stations in those markets. Best, Nick
Nice career! I've made a few Pacific circumnavigations out to Hi up to Alaska to Mexico. We had SSB 30 years ago and it was worthless. Technology is a good thing. Cruising does get in your blood. Love it! Keep your videos coming they are very good thank You!
Thank you for the kind words. The tech these days is amazing. We don't even carry a SSB anymore. Best to you, Nick
More
Check out the video we posted yesterday. Go through some passage planning and a lot on forecasting.
I see an opportunity for you to be a professional weather router.
But I'd have to stop sailing! Maybe though...give Chris Parker a run for his money...
@@TheOKellys the beauty of self employment and remote work is you control your workload and hours. From the best office in the world.
Too many acronyms!
lol. But they make me sound smart. Best, Nick