As another commenter said, your format now is a huge improvement! It now feels more like a professional presentation done in person. Love to see the channel iterate and evolve
@@donkeypunch5138 Hey my guy let's bring this down several notches. Yes, he's talking about important metrics and an important topic. No one is discounting that. I personally watched the video, shared it with friends and family, and used it to start discussions. We can also complement the channel on their creative improvements and presentation style. The audience here is very professional, and calling out his style as an improvement is a positive thing. Improving the presentation makes other professionals take him seriously. What's very unflattering is being foul mouthed and disrespectful when others are trying to have an adult conversation.
In my opinion, people aren't having kids/having them as soon because it takes a good decade to get out of debt from schooling, credit cards, or medical expenses, pick your flavor. Kids can be expensive and stressful WITH money and most people are just finally breaking even in their 30's. It's a complex issue and people's reasons are all a bit different but I don't think anyone should be surprised. Some things have to change.
No it's not at all complex. We are stupid weak men who are incapable of telling our women what they have to do to have a functioning society instead we let their eggs go to waste and watch them become insane as they suppress their natural urges to be mothers from their teenage years on. They compensate all of this with nonsensical materialistic stuff and ideologies that ruin our societies even more. It's really simple but most men are just too stupid to get societies to work as they have before so even the most backwards cultures like Islam will be more successful as they know what men are here for and what women are here for. Most men are really too stupid to not see that women just don't care about societies at all. LOL
@Jurij Popotnig Interesting opinion, so let me make sure I've got this right. You think women are here to make babies starting as a teen and a man's job is to take them because that's the way it's 'supposed' to be...
@@adamneel7100 Yes it's supposed to be this way and it is also the most fulfilling way of life if you believe all the science on happiness etc. It's better for the health of the babies...Do you have a problem with my opinion or do you think you can go up against nature? If so I'm sure all the depressed childless Western women age 40+ with their compensation dogs will agree with you: Patriarchy bad, white men bad! :)
@Jurij Popotnig I just think your opinion assumes that men and women are a monolith, that society only works if everyone behaves the way they are supposed to and that people choosing to live their life outside the margins are 'ruining' society. Also you suggest that anything against your opinion is contrary to nature, but we aren't mindless animals, nurture has a ton of weight in determining our outlook on life. I think we gotta agree to disagree friend.
We just need to hold out on having kids a little longer. Eventually some less rich people will have to start working and then they will understand a living wage.
@@EtherTheRealI’m pretty sure china has already automated fast food restaurants most fast food places we have here are un-manned vending machines over there.
Even if you are filming at 240p, I would watch it for the content as it's just pure gold! Thank you for all the high quality information. The high quality video improvement is just an extra for all of us. :)
The past three years have really thinned out my family. Thank you so much for speaking out about it. It’s amazing to me that no one else is talking about it. Sad.
I worked as an ambulance driver until I started nursing school about 1 year ago and there were so many deaths during the pandemic. So many vaccinated people. This really changed my mind. I hope that I won't suffer the same fate, because I also let myself get vaccinated twice before changing my mind.
@@xxdomixx1085 that fraud fake vaccine highly increase probability of cancer plus it can be affected by other outside sources. So be careful and lead as healthy life as possible
@@xxdomixx1085 Really? The vaccinated ones? I didn’t take the vaccine but I had the delta variant. It was serious. What did the people die from? Heart maybe?
Thank you so much for talking about this. It's something I rarely see talked about and there is a lot of misinformation / bias when there is. Age demographics are not political or moral and in many cases matter more than any philosophy you have for the well being of our species.
Am I watching EPB Research, or am I watching a video put out by Forbes or Business Insider? This new format is killer man! Seriously professional!👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
less isn't zero. rich people are just upset they can't depend on endlessly increasing profits anymore and they're going to have to do something smart for a change instead of just cut labor to increase profits in a down quarter.
The conservatives always preaches about children, without actually changeing the enviroment inorder for children to thrive. The only diffrence now is that people are educated enough to not produce children when the times are hard.
Could you do a video on the used car market? I'm a auto dealer. Prices rose 40% over the last two years and have been falling sharply. US dealers have been financing people at insane prices, tens of thousands over MSRP with extremely high payments ($1000+ a month). Repos are way up and auctions are flooded with no sales. I expect this could bankrupt some of the largest auto loan providers.
40 Years ago a man could work and support a family of 4 or 5. Today, that same man can work the same job, along with his wife working a white collar job, and the two of them together can’t afford the same lifestyle as the man alone did 40 years ago.
This is the collapse of a civilization due to infinite growth (8 billion people )on a finite planet it’s an ecological cultural societal civilization collapse quality of life standard of living pace of life have declined
The paradox - the age group 45-54 is the most relevant for the economy - but once you are approaching 50 the chances for remaining attractive work-force significantly declines. Hence, you are relevant only for short period of your life-time. And please do not mistake it for being relevant as human, you are only relevant as consumer!
This happened to me in a very onerous and competitive and ever-changing sector of the economy. Semiconductor mnfg. My advice is that unless you are in the top 10% of the passing population academically and have excellent health and social skills then steer clear of engineering, manufacturing and any science related sector. The companies will suck you dry from age 25 to 50 and then throw out the lower performers and replace them with younger and leaner people. The sector states there is a shortage of STEM workers but they do not state the constant need for re-education and training, unsocial shift hours and long hours, often unpaid that go with many junior jobs in the engineering and technology sector. Any health or relationship set-backs while working in this sector and you will be "transitioned" out of the job. Trying to get back into employment beyond age 55 is nearly impossible. The collapse in working age population is only a concern for the elites and the rich who want to have an endless supply of partly employed and desperate people from which to choose. The mentioned Black Death in the 1350's led to an improvement in living standards for the surviving lower classes in that serfdom was greatly reduced and the nobility had to start granting freedoms and opportunities to their workers to a greater degree than before. 100 years after the Black Death you had the Rennaissance and the start of Modern European culture due to this improvement in living standards for the lower orders in society.
The key word not mentioned is 'infrastructure'.. A collapse in population growth would be bad.. It's good to have a growing population, but when infrastructure (like housing, food, electricity, services, etc..) does not keep with with the explosive growth of population (like we've seen in the past 200~ years) we get inflation like we have today.. Not enough supplies (ex. Housing) and high demand (ex. multiple people bidding when buying a house) is good example.
After an unpleasant 2022, shell-staggered monetary benefactors have setbacks to recuperate and a ton to consider, as an extension report and a heap of various data did not near anything to change suppositions that the National bank would presumably continue to climb intrest rates whether or not the economy tones down, And that suggests more red ink for portfolios for the chief quarter of year 2023. How should I benefit from the continuous unsteady market, I'm at present at an intersection picking if to trade my $250k security/stock portfolio.
Base on two key targets. In any case, remain shielded by acknowledging when to offer stocks to cut disasters and catch benefits. Second, prepare to benefit when the market turns around.I recommend you search for the course a delegate or money related expert.
@Dragon Jee Much appreciated, I gazed her upward on the web and was profoundly dazzled by her qualifications; I reached out to her since I really want all the assist I with canning get. I just set up a call .
The main reasons for the decline in world population is the demise of the family unit, abortions, deadly drugs, violent crime, fewer cops, illegal immigration, poor education, and the promotion and growth of gays and Trans.
I dislike this argument and it honestly seems to be to be very narrow minded. Population growth is declining due to the perceived perception of the world and it's future, whether exaggerated or not there is some truths to these fears. Climate change, political instability and polarization, social unrest, and foremost economic stresses being the key factors. It's hard and scary world to try and raise a child in and it only appears to be getting worse. Sounds to me like these developed nations can use a bit of an economic cool down especially when it comes to prices, apparently we are in a housing shortage and the problem is not enough people? That doesn't make since. Alot of these economic sectors have been hyper stimulated to be completely unaffordable for the majority. And also maybe these developed nations are having slowing population growth but a lot of undeveloped nations still have large birth rates. I can see a solution to be promoting immigration and working more closely as a plant rather then individual nations.
Why everyone thinks this is a problem? We just need to focus on quality of people, not quantity. We can keep industrial society if we shrink the factory. We don't need governments or taxation if we focus on trust, commitment. We have protocols now to not need centralized solutions. We changed in the past, we can change now.
The population decline will totally effect our society but our society can easily change and adapt. The fewer younger people will need to keep the planet clean and provide food and other resources for the older dying part of the population. Society will adapt and change to the changing economy. All someone needs to live is food clean water and shelter. Food can literally be free if the environment will support local growing of food. Shelter can basically be free with skilled use of natural renewable resources. And water can be locally cleaned. The earths civilization has to change or the earth will no longer sustain us. Its inevitable we've grown to large.
@@pebblepod30 advanced medical care? There were millions and millions without advanced medical care. I spent 6 years not going to doctor. If everyone grew healthy food locally outside or in green houses they would be healthier except genetic disease and communicable disease.
Great polish on your videos now. One comment is invest in a teleprompter over your camera lens so you continue to look directly at the camera and not have to switch staring back and forth on and off lens.
One factor that you did not address is WHO is having children and WHO is not. While there may indeed be a decline in childbearing in the US, I do not see this happening among the lower-income cohort. Quite the contrary. Marriage itself is declining across the board so that it is far more likely that a child born today will have only one parent (usually the mother) in its life than it is to grow up in a two-parent home. There are more economic incentives available to single moms than to two parent families, and while there are those who will take those incentives and use them as a stepping stone out of poverty and into the taxpaying class, many more will not, thus increasing the percentage of people who are government dependent. I see a big backlash coming against the poor, the disabled, and the elderly in the next few years as tax income also declines.
When the values of assets drastically drop, that’s when you can tell that an economy is going to slow down permanently for a long time. Because no one has the incentive to work, without becoming rich in the far future.
On top of population collapse we have peak oil. This threatens to send civilization into a new dark age period because there is an issue of the thermodynamic decline of energy at play here that wasn't present in recent population declines, but was during the latter end of prior civilizational collapse periods.
if you're in high school, there's 2 clear options: 1. health care 2. skilled labor (plumbing/electrician/etc) Both will be raking in mounds of money. None of us want to die from lack of healthcare. None of want to deal without plumbing/HVAC. Neither category can be offshored. Can't fix a burst pipe over the phone, and can't get your teeth cleaned over Skype.
3. You forgot programming, that is the occupation of the future, everyone will likely have to know it in some form as technology grows requiring greater innovation. Competitive market perhaps but the last job that AI will solve before it solves organic nature in itself.
Could you follow up on the consequences of collapse? What it does to asset prices, housing, is it avoidable? Can we automate away problems for missing labour force jobs?
None of that matters. For every population number and age distribution data set, the economy will deliver a production and price point. It is the *political* power that is at risk. There is no population or economic "crisis"... these are facts and conditions that cannot be managed. The problem is POLITICAL The Maya's kings lost their power when, no matter how many sacrifices they made, the rain did not come. The current political elites that hold power by the rituals of money printing, debt, social security ponzi scheme will also fail to deliver "rain" in the form of growth, infrastructure, benefits or privileges. Respectfully
Hey fellow Gringa, in terms of real estate I would say look at Japan, its been in a 30 year collapse already. What I see there is fairly high prices of real estate in Tokyo but dirt cheap on the countryside. Another example is Italy which is where I live. In comparison to France which had alot of immigration, the Italian population been stagnant. As someone who is buying property on the countryside the difference in price is massive, a middle of nowhere house is 3-5X more expensive in France than Italy.. Meanwhile the price difference in the major cities (economic centers) are small between the countries.
I think it’s not just automating away the jobs but also finding more efficient solutions to taking care of the older demographic without putting too much burden and draining resources on the younger generations that will have children.
@gringadoor5385 Same thing that happened to Rome, Mycenaean Greece, Baghdad etc. The root cause is the decline in a population's avg IQ. When the avg IQ drops, the society is simply not smart enough to solve problems it once could. The reason for the decline in the avg IQ is civilization itself. Civilization greatly reduces child mortality, removing the selection pressures that bump off babies with bad genes. Though mutations are random, the brain takes up ~80% of the human genome, this means that the chances of a mutation affecting the brain are higher than not. When selection pressures are alleviated, these bad mutations build up in the population. Worse still is that civilization has a tendency to create the circumstance whereby poorer people are able have more children that reach adulthood. Since socioeconomic status has a large hereditary component, and is strongly correlated to IQ, this means that in effect, lower IQ people have more offspring. Civilization tragically sows it's own destruction by removing selection pressures for high IQ. All we can hope is that the above theories and evidence that supports it is wrong, otherwise it appears we are doomed, bar some sort of genetic engineering. If you care to hear a better explanation on this grim matter, search for "The Jolly Heretic" in youtube.
Thanks for sharing this info! I've been thinking about this for a few years, ever since I saw an age demographic chart for the first time. I just have to ask... What's the import? As in, okay great, the working age population is going to collapse and that's bad for a whole bunch of reasons, but what will that mean for the world? What opportunities does that create? Negative info is worthless without a counter.
The positive is that rich people are going to have to start working, just because there's not enough poor people to do it. This will lead to labor being highly valued over capital gains and things will start to get better for most people.
The underlying premise of the video is flawed. Elderly people are victims of an order than does not let them save for retirement effectively. People are worked in their 'prime years' to the point that they accumulate health problems for later. Most of the brain damage that leads to dementia begins decades before symptoms. And they are ostracized, warehoused, and disposed of. But even if old age consumption was unsolvable, consumption does not mean standard of living. The average American consumes a lot, but is worse off compared to anyone with decent healthcare and housing. So instead of breeding fresh meat to throw into the economic grinder, let's replace the grinder.
Who can really feel comfortable raising a child on today's salaries. Housing now takes over 50% of the paycheck. I think you need $90,000 just to comfortably afford the median home in the USA which is over $400,000 now. We really need corporations to step up and pay their employees better so people can have children. We need our government to basically stop taxing people under 100k salaries and stop spending so much money.
I know this research focuses on first world countries, but what about massive growth in developing countries? Will their growth be able to buttress some of the productivity decline of other countries and keep global economic activity growing?
In short: no There is no growth in developing countries because they have no savings. Without savings, there is no credit, no debt, and no consumer economy. Just survival.
@@ricardokowalski1579 Depends on the country. I live with my wife in the Philippines. While not many people have savings, just about everybody has some form of debt and there definitely is a massive consumer economy.
That assumes they remain politically and socially stable. Developing countries have depended heavily on foreign spending for decades. Without that spending, they'll be forced to adapt or fall back into third world status.
@Tracchofyre Agreed, capital is the issue. And the problem is not "decline" of capital. Is government control of capital. When governments regulate ownership of capital goods is a problem. But when governments intervene in the money supply and credit market they affect (and control) ALL capital goods. Capital is required to raise above poverty, but GOVERNMENT CONTROL of capital is the only way to keep the masses poor.
@Tracchofyre if you do not know, consider 1- people did get ahead by working and saving (a long time ago) 2- people cannot save because inflation (governmeny) eats the savings away 3- people cannot work themselves out of poverty because income gets taxed (government) 4- people cannot get loans because government sets interest rates and absorbs all the credit (bonds) Everything that keeps people poor is some form of government action.
The reality that few people are going to be able to admit is that the only way you can have a youthful population is to have rapid population growth or a lot of people dying. Given a planet where rapid population growth is unsustainable, having low death rates and long lives is going to turn the planet into an old folks home. That youth and death are two sides of the same coin are a psychological and philosophical conundrum that modern society probably isn't equipped to deal with.
Every major challenge now facing the human species is due to over-population, and yet people still want human population to increase for economic reasons. The inevitable result of continued runaway population increase will be either an extreme die-back, or extinction.
This is the kind of thing you think Gov's would be concerned about but Japan and others are running head first into this demographic/economic breakdown without any preparations. Debt levels and servicing debt will inevitably reach a breaking point. But don't worry they'll make sure energy and housing are totally unaffordable along the way. WEF sees this as the perfect opportunity to "Reset" how the world does business. I can only hope and pray we get some competent leaders who will address these issues intelligently.
Japan is doing just fine. The population is going down and the economy is still growing. This is a recipe for rapid per capita growth. Per capita growth is what benefits the regular people, but not the rich.
Japanese housing is decently affordable dude. Even in the major cities. Property prices never rebounded much after the speculative bubble burst in the 90's. And off course in the countryside it is not unheard of to find property basically for free, although there's little reason to live out there, which is why it's so cheap. I'd argue this is one of the major strengths of the Japanese economy. It's no longer addicted to property appreciation. And although public debt is high, private debt is fairly low, so the financial situation is not as dire as it looks. Not that they don't have problems. The toxic work culture for example still makes a healthy work/life balance very difficult to maintain. I have friends moving out of Japan for that exact reason. However I suspect that if there is a good solution to population collapse, the Japanese will be first to discover it, since they're ahead of the curve, and they do have a history of sudden radical reform.
What about increase in living standards from emerging markets such as India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Vietnam, West Africa, etc? Can they overcome the losses in these countries in the next 30 years?
i heard a nice analogy from chris williamson interview with stephen j shaw, some places like africa are actually going to increase for a while but will eventually end up where we are "were all on the same rollercoaster but theyre just a few cars behind"
Their birthrates are (except India) still above replacement level. But demographics are wonderful because they allow us to see into near future (since before people are able to reproduce some time has to pass). Basically they are at the same trajectory. Birthrates are plummeting with no end in sight. Their population will still grow because of demographic momentum (delay due to children growing up) but it's global phenomenon and it will destroy many countries. It probably won't cause humanity to die off because if there aren't enough children old people will have to die off and a lot of capital will free up. Still, quite tragic but self-correcting phenomenom.
Elonatom stop measuring everything based on a human experience. Less is more, less humans means more of something else. What else? We don't know, but if we are patient and stop worrying, we may watch it, whatever it is? You know, you worry too much. Humanity is just one species in a long line of evolutionary expressions of life on this 3 billion years old space ship. Stop trying to run away to Mars. Stay here and just love all this planet is, not just the human things.
This is a first world problem. Men and women are not getting married and having families at the same rate as past generations. Men used to be the gateway to security for women, now women got their own money and won't settle for an 'average man". They want a top tier 1 to 10% man in height, income, strength and everything else. Anything less than that is settling, and women are told they can "have it all", and "deserve it". First world countries like USA and Europe will depopulate. Africa will be the new China. Countries that have traditional gender roles have more babies. It's that simple. United States is on a path to a long slow decline.
Educate, impower and provide choice to women, seems great! 🎉 Less demand on housing too, seems like the only downside is for the people that have all the capital and own all the homes
it really is like an MIT experiment. Even this guy talks about house price falls as a bad thing just because it shows up as "growth". Do you want more expensive groceries? Why does he want more expensive housing?
@Henry George economists look through the eyes of GDP UP=GOOD, GDP DOWN=BAD. Housing is the backbone of construction and manufacturing jobs. Boomer politicians sacrificed the demographics of the country in order keep their home prices at astronomical levels and ever increasing. Economists think "young people good", falling to see the quality of the young people they are examining. Most zoomers don't care to partake in the system as it stands.
What does that mean "Can We Avoid" ? We are half way through allready. It´s only at the very end of the collapse we will noticed it like a punch in the face. And some will still say... We didn´t see i comming.
I'm a 30 year old man in IT and I'm not alone in the view that if I'm never likely to afford a house and if I were to get divorced and have everything I've worked for taken away from me and given to my ex wife, why should I bother hustling for the almighty dollar and contributing to the economy in my golden years of working?
This is not actually a problem. This is only a problem for the tax man. He just needs to buy fewer yachts and let people grow their own food again. If he really wants to solve the population "crisis" he might want to consider how exactly his policies effect the people's willingness to get married and have children.
Well you need people to replace the careers that serve our society, whether its medicine or construction or whatever else. Unless you want to end up in a hut or something
@@readinggorilla6365 Self reliance will replace a great deal of all of those things, we'll build our own houses, we'll make our own medicine, we can even make our own cars so long as we have access to the tools and materials to do so. Then, once a significant portion of the population is no longer reliant on the corporate economy it'll actually be easier to build families again and start raising the population again. If you're worried about ending up living in a hut I think a reassessment of our priorities away from luxury and toward independence and productivity should do some good.
@@MrAbrahamleon hey I am all for being a jack of all trades, and I am from a farming background where we did self sustain for much of our life out if necessity. But I don't have enough faith in man and peoples work ethic. It's incredibly hard to live like that, and your always working at it, and I dont think people have the resilience/fortitude to do it
How does potential age reversal/slowing therapies, treatments, and engineering factor into this? Hard to project, but reasonably likely that we will see a boom in life extending and aging reversing treatments/scientific breakthroughs. This would effectively extend the "sweet spot" population age and mitigate much of the decline.
That’s possible but it maybe a while before we discover the science/technology to do that. Most of the population may die before we discover that technology/science and it becomes mainstream. Keep in mind boomers are between 78-59 years old right now and the average life expectancy is 80 so not a lot of time
@@MeMe-zq7qd We don't need boomers. I'm personally hoping the next pandemic takes them off our hands. Without old people to take care of, we'd being doing pretty well.
Inflation made the decision for us. We realized early on we could never afford kids and rely on government assistance to feed them. I would be so embarrassed.
Mad kudos for being the first youtuber (that I am aware of) to speak about the effect of demographics on the economy in a future looking sense. I think its really interesting that in most of the developed world (or at least the regions referenced in the video) there is such spectrum with respect to culture, governance, and economic systems/situations, and yet none have figured out how to keep people wanting at least 2 kids.
Many want kids but can not afford. People live with parents longer, marry later have kids later, by that age smaller biological window to have kids so there’s only one or two. Then it becomes engrained in culture, and the age pyramid is on a sustained narrowing trend.
Pravi broj je blizi 4+ jer je odavno poznato da iz kojeg god razloga oko pola ljudi nece imati dece do kraja zivota. To znaci oni koji imaju moraju da imaju duplo, tj. vise od cetiri i to samo da odrze populaciju, nema rasta. A ti razmisli, gro ljudi bi gledalo nekoga sa petoro dece ko seljaka, sve je naopako pa nije ni cudo sto padamo.
Simple. On the farm kids are an asset as it is additional hands to work the farm and the incremental cost is negligible. In the city, kids are a cost and in the last 20+ years capitalist have become greedier and greedier raising costs to ridiculous levels (just look at the cost of daycare these days). But capitalism doesn't plan for the long term so we will ride this gravy train right off the cliff. Note that the only reason the U.S. doesn't have declining population is because of massive immigration. (we currently have about 44 million people in the U.S. that came from another country (77% of those legally).
Peter Zeihan talks about the influence of demographics on geopolitics and economics, but the timeline of some of his predictions isn't very good IMHO. If you want a detailed deep dive specifically into the link between demographics and the economy, leaving out most of the geopolitical conclusions, then investigate Harry Dent. His predictions of an economic downturn were almost a decade premature, but to give the guy a break, several unpredictable factors delayed the downturn. All the best Selena.
Love the new format! One small suggestion would be to pull out a bit on the close ups. Right now it feels a bit claustrophobic to me. Interesting content as always though.
Japan, America, and Europe are wealthy enough to draw quality immigrants in the 20 - 30 yr old age range. This would offset demographics and add to economic growth. If they chose that route. The more healthy avenue is to make 2 - 3 kids per household economically viable and socially desirable. This means economic policy that puts young people on track to being secure by age 30, before the biological clock goes terminal.
No, and that's great. 500 mln - 1 bln is optimal max, we don't need more. Somebody even benefits from this huge number? It's time to reverse trend and they doing just that (Musk too).
I believe that US stocks surge from 60s up to 2010 are primarily due to rapidly growing population. And accelerated lately with QE fuel after '08 crisis
This new edition and animation is very esthetically pleasing, looks polished and high quality. Also the point is well put by going through the various arguments.
@@badass6300 I really don't care about you, lazy people who have kids that I support with my taxes, nor retired people who can't take care of themselves. Get it?
No it won't be a major problem because the problem is going to be you have to realize too that we have illegal immigrants coming across the border all the time women and children that are directions to provide many in plenty of slaves for the industrial complex
exactly, the only take away here is "debt levels will not be able to serviced". So, all the crazy government spending on war, corruption, greed will collapse and we'll all now have to deal with the consequences.
Population decreasing is not as bad as it sounds. - Governments just have to do better with their spending. - Markets can still grow if the workforce is more productive (new machinery, better hours/rotations, business opened 24/7 but working globally). - If 3rd World Countries continue developing, they will experience a population expansion. We can trade with those new 'now available' countries to replace the shrinking population in others. We've been experiencing too much abundance so we could afford to be incompetent. Paradigm shifts brings us opportunities to fix and improve our situation so that, instead of damaging us, we end up benefiting in the long term. The bigger problem is that we need experts in key positions to come with appropriate solutions to new problems that do not only benefit those in power.
Right now we have 3 workers for a position that requires only 1. And most times the other 2 do not even help. They are just supervisors. If population shrinks, governments would also need less spending and less people working for it being paid with tax money.
It's only a problem because capitalist economic systems assume infinite growth. Even when the very first thing everyone learns in Economy 101 is that resources are limited. We simply need to change the dominating economic system.
great video as always, I do have a question though by the end of the decade japan's economy will be surpassed by India wouldn't that change the stats as the prominent 4 economic regions would total even more people and India's inclusion will offset the decline?
Look at the GDP per capita of India vs Japan. The consumption patterns will be entirely different. The size of an economy is only one metric you need to look at when comparing.
The problem with replacing jobs with AI is for the remaining people. How will they make money if all jobs are done by AI? There will be no incentive for companies to hire real people when AI can do everything faster and more efficient than humans. Hiring humans will become redundant meaning no on can make money
True, but the problem we currently have is that there is a growing disconnect between labor and technology. You would need to train a skilled workforce that could work with the new automating technology, which we are lacking right now, and that would take time and lots of money. Furthermore, that would only allow us to maintain current standards of living, not increase. This is because with less working population, but still more people to take care off, inflation would get worse. So we need to do super automation and skilled education in order to increase standards of living
Great video about a very serious problem. My only recommendation would be to include South Korea as well, as they're in a similar demographic free fall situation.
This is what im also thinking, mantra drom last 50years about whole index investing may be different bc of demografy shift, could be useful to look at japan for last 10-15years by equiyy sector performance
basically young people have been told at least from millennial and on ward is you would need to cross all your t's and dot all your i's before you are qualifeid to marry. and ... well turns out not a good idea.
3:19 "the catastrophic problem for the global economy" There is not a "population problem". Lower number of workers will mean better salaries. Empty housing will drive down prices. There is not an "economic problem". There will be a supply/demand price point for every step down, just as we had on the way up. Resource use will decline, water supply will be plentiful. All there is is a (government) FISCAL problem. There will be a collapse of tax revenue. What will collapse is income, value added, sales and other taxes streams. Massive debts incurred on the assumption that population would rise forever will create *political* turmoil. Paraphrasing George Carlin: It's not the population, the economy or the world that is effed... it's the political establishment. (ALSO)... a smaller population with smaller young cohorts prevents politicians from declaring wars. They will not have the manpower. And even if the "win" the population may further collapse!
@@edubmf precisely. None of that is a problem, much less a crisis. But for politicians? They get their money selling land use permits, and property, sales, value added and income taxes. And by graft in roadwork and other infrastructure. THAT is where the "crisis" will be
I love that I, as a young man in my early 20s, get the immense privilege of paying off debts taken out against my future by previous generations. What a kind gift they've left me! I also get to pay into the government mandated ponzi scheme (social security), healthcare i will never receive (medicare/medicaid) and have 30% of whats left to get lost by the pentagon!
What these alarmists fail to consider are the predictions that new technologies, especially in AI and continued advancements in robotic automation, will result in at least 20% of today's jobs becoming obsolete in the same timeframe that the working population decreases by 18%. The equation will likely balance itself out, as long as we can level off with a modest decrease to ~7B people.
The issue is robots and AI don't pay taxes and thus don't contribute anything to the maintenance of society. If anything AI will only make the problem even worse.
@Novusod AI also doesn't need to be fed food that's more expensive than electricity do no food stamps for AI, and they don't require parental leave, childcare, or medical care, or disability payments, etc. So AI robots neither pay taxes nor consume as many resources that require taxes.
That's highly unlikely, even IF we have the technology, we wouldn't have the infrastructure to do it. 20% of 8 billion is 1.6 billion, 1.6 billion of machines needed to replace the humans that did their job. Granted we wouldn't need to build that much, but even a million machines would be a massive challenge even for advanced countries. Much less several hundred millions of em. Blind faith in technology is as bad as blind faith to religion.
Why would we want to avoid population collapse. Less people is less traffic and more parking spots. I moved to Syracuse, NY after living in NYC and the fact that there is never traffic makes a huge difference.
As another commenter said, your format now is a huge improvement! It now feels more like a professional presentation done in person. Love to see the channel iterate and evolve
Netflix doc level production...great job.
Need a teleprompter set at the right distance
@@donkeypunch5138 Hey my guy let's bring this down several notches. Yes, he's talking about important metrics and an important topic. No one is discounting that. I personally watched the video, shared it with friends and family, and used it to start discussions.
We can also complement the channel on their creative improvements and presentation style. The audience here is very professional, and calling out his style as an improvement is a positive thing. Improving the presentation makes other professionals take him seriously.
What's very unflattering is being foul mouthed and disrespectful when others are trying to have an adult conversation.
population Collapse of Africa and india is A great thing to happen. reduce number of undirable people is never a bad thing.
In my opinion, people aren't having kids/having them as soon because it takes a good decade to get out of debt from schooling, credit cards, or medical expenses, pick your flavor. Kids can be expensive and stressful WITH money and most people are just finally breaking even in their 30's. It's a complex issue and people's reasons are all a bit different but I don't think anyone should be surprised. Some things have to change.
No it's not at all complex. We are stupid weak men who are incapable of telling our women what they have to do to have a functioning society instead we let their eggs go to waste and watch them become insane as they suppress their natural urges to be mothers from their teenage years on. They compensate all of this with nonsensical materialistic stuff and ideologies that ruin our societies even more. It's really simple but most men are just too stupid to get societies to work as they have before so even the most backwards cultures like Islam will be more successful as they know what men are here for and what women are here for. Most men are really too stupid to not see that women just don't care about societies at all. LOL
@Jurij Popotnig Interesting opinion, so let me make sure I've got this right. You think women are here to make babies starting as a teen and a man's job is to take them because that's the way it's 'supposed' to be...
@@adamneel7100 Yes it's supposed to be this way and it is also the most fulfilling way of life if you believe all the science on happiness etc. It's better for the health of the babies...Do you have a problem with my opinion or do you think you can go up against nature? If so I'm sure all the depressed childless Western women age 40+ with their compensation dogs will agree with you: Patriarchy bad, white men bad! :)
@Jurij Popotnig I just think your opinion assumes that men and women are a monolith, that society only works if everyone behaves the way they are supposed to and that people choosing to live their life outside the margins are 'ruining' society. Also you suggest that anything against your opinion is contrary to nature, but we aren't mindless animals, nurture has a ton of weight in determining our outlook on life. I think we gotta agree to disagree friend.
@@adamneel7100 I understand...it's "complex".
I've slowly grown a passion for economics over the past few years, finding this channel about 6 months ago was a blessing. Thank you.
The fact they won't pay us more when there is a lack of people is frustrating.
We just need to hold out on having kids a little longer. Eventually some less rich people will have to start working and then they will understand a living wage.
@@josemexicanmexican7602 They will just automate the jobs it's happening
already ?
@@zardostheheadgood luck automating basic manual labor😂 there is a reason why they arent being automated
@@EtherTheRealI’m pretty sure china has already automated fast food restaurants most fast food places we have here are un-manned vending machines over there.
@@fintherebel5000 automated roofing, plumbing, street maintenance, repair and construction, electricql grid maintenance when?
Even if you are filming at 240p, I would watch it for the content as it's just pure gold! Thank you for all the high quality information. The high quality video improvement is just an extra for all of us. :)
4K should be the minimum standard for ALL UA-cam videos.
@@urbanistgod and yet, you have two videos uploaded that are 720 and 1k :D
I haven't even gotten a minute in the video yet but holy crap your new style and editing is fantastic. Killer work as usual.
It's been awesome watching you evolve. Each video we get treated with better production values. Always enjoy watching.
'The comfort of the rich depends upon an abundant supply of the poor.'
-Voltaire
I don't Voltaire took the automation of work by machinery into account.
@@lollerskates1992 ... it doesn't matter. The rich need consumers. Poor on welfare or working poor. Still consumers.
@@dougn2350 True but now they are using immigration to replace the people who we lost recently. It’s sad.
Capitalism
And?
“The comfort of the rich depends on an abundant supply of the poor.”
That's a lie
"when the rich catch a cold the poor get pneumonia"
Well the rich corporations and billionaires could pay the same percentage of tax and there’s a whole lot of money…..no more of this monarchy system.
@@lucasmejia3033 Thats some serious ass kissing behavior there
@@lucasmejia3033no this the true
Less people is the only way to save this planet
The past three years have really thinned out my family. Thank you so much for speaking out about it. It’s amazing to me that no one else is talking about it. Sad.
I worked as an ambulance driver until I started nursing school about 1 year ago and there were so many deaths during the pandemic. So many vaccinated people. This really changed my mind. I hope that I won't suffer the same fate, because I also let myself get vaccinated twice before changing my mind.
@@xxdomixx1085 that fraud fake vaccine highly increase probability of cancer plus it can be affected by other outside sources. So be careful and lead as healthy life as possible
@@xxdomixx1085 pls don't spread misinformation on the internet. let it stay in your locality
@@xxdomixx1085 Really? The vaccinated ones? I didn’t take the vaccine but I had the delta variant. It was serious. What did the people die from? Heart maybe?
@@Oi.... Lol!🤣😂🤣
Thank you so much for talking about this. It's something I rarely see talked about and there is a lot of misinformation / bias when there is. Age demographics are not political or moral and in many cases matter more than any philosophy you have for the well being of our species.
@user-FaisalAl-Sawadi Caused by the Bosses profit drive for the lowest wages and the longest hours.
Am I watching EPB Research, or am I watching a video put out by Forbes or Business Insider? This new format is killer man! Seriously professional!👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
You're definitely not watching Forbes. This channel has actual information.
@@knurlgnar24 Yeah it's more like bloomberg
less isn't zero. rich people are just upset they can't depend on endlessly increasing profits anymore and they're going to have to do something smart for a change instead of just cut labor to increase profits in a down quarter.
Why would you want to avoid it? Over population is at the foundation of almost every single threat facing humanity.
Indeed. There is no current problem that can be solved by adding more humans. Fewer people, fewer problems
The conservatives always preaches about children, without actually changeing the enviroment inorder for children to thrive. The only diffrence now is that people are educated enough to not produce children when the times are hard.
"When we were living on the farms, children were free labor. In an urban environment, children are an expensive hobby."
Kids never been free labor , always been a liability. But today the price of it went unsustainably high.
@@gmv9077 not really, back then they were quite useful
The production quality on this video is INSANE.
I appreciate the message, the data, and the delivery.
Could you do a video on the used car market? I'm a auto dealer. Prices rose 40% over the last two years and have been falling sharply. US dealers have been financing people at insane prices, tens of thousands over MSRP with extremely high payments ($1000+ a month). Repos are way up and auctions are flooded with no sales. I expect this could bankrupt some of the largest auto loan providers.
40 Years ago a man could work and support a family of 4 or 5. Today, that same man can work the same job, along with his wife working a white collar job, and the two of them together can’t afford the same lifestyle as the man alone did 40 years ago.
This is the collapse of a civilization due to infinite growth (8 billion people )on a finite planet it’s an ecological cultural societal civilization collapse quality of life standard of living pace of life have declined
The paradox - the age group 45-54 is the most relevant for the economy - but once you are approaching 50 the chances for remaining attractive work-force significantly declines.
Hence, you are relevant only for short period of your life-time. And please do not mistake it for being relevant as human, you are only relevant as consumer!
This happened to me in a very onerous and competitive and ever-changing sector of the economy. Semiconductor mnfg. My advice is that unless you are in the top 10% of the passing population academically and have excellent health and social skills then steer clear of engineering, manufacturing and any science related sector. The companies will suck you dry from age 25 to 50 and then throw out the lower performers and replace them with younger and leaner people. The sector states there is a shortage of STEM workers but they do not state the constant need for re-education and training, unsocial shift hours and long hours, often unpaid that go with many junior jobs in the engineering and technology sector.
Any health or relationship set-backs while working in this sector and you will be "transitioned" out of the job. Trying to get back into employment beyond age 55 is nearly impossible.
The collapse in working age population is only a concern for the elites and the rich who want to have an endless supply of partly employed and desperate people from which to choose. The mentioned Black Death in the 1350's led to an improvement in living standards for the surviving lower classes in that serfdom was greatly reduced and the nobility had to start granting freedoms and opportunities to their workers to a greater degree than before. 100 years after the Black Death you had the Rennaissance and the start of Modern European culture due to this improvement in living standards for the lower orders in society.
The economy has to keep growing, otherwise we might not destroy the planet fast enough!
Imagine if we make the transition to renewable energy and perfect recycling technology before we destroy the entire global ecosystem *pukes*
Earth First! (we'll mine and log all the others afterwards!)
Best Global Macro analysis channel on UA-cam.
The key word not mentioned is 'infrastructure'..
A collapse in population growth would be bad.. It's good to have a growing population, but when infrastructure (like housing, food, electricity, services, etc..) does not keep with with the explosive growth of population (like we've seen in the past 200~ years) we get inflation like we have today..
Not enough supplies (ex. Housing) and high demand (ex. multiple people bidding when buying a house) is good example.
After an unpleasant 2022, shell-staggered monetary benefactors have setbacks to recuperate and a ton to consider, as an extension report and a heap of various data did not near anything to change suppositions that the National bank would presumably continue to climb intrest rates whether or not the economy tones down, And that suggests more red ink for portfolios for the chief quarter of year 2023. How should I benefit from the continuous unsteady market, I'm at present at an intersection picking if to trade my $250k security/stock portfolio.
Base on two key targets. In any case, remain shielded by acknowledging when to offer stocks to cut disasters and catch benefits. Second, prepare to benefit when the market turns around.I recommend you search for the course a delegate or money related expert.
@Dragon Jee Could you please leave your investment advisor details here? I need it urgently.
@Dragon Jee Much appreciated, I gazed her upward on the web and was profoundly dazzled by her qualifications; I reached out to her since I really want all the assist I with canning get. I just set up a call .
The bots are getting smarter looks like 😮
@kingpappalc who are the bots here in this conversation? All 3 participants? Or just one?
The main reasons for the decline in world population is the demise of the family unit, abortions, deadly drugs, violent crime, fewer cops, illegal immigration, poor education, and the promotion and growth of gays and Trans.
I dislike this argument and it honestly seems to be to be very narrow minded. Population growth is declining due to the perceived perception of the world and it's future, whether exaggerated or not there is some truths to these fears. Climate change, political instability and polarization, social unrest, and foremost economic stresses being the key factors. It's hard and scary world to try and raise a child in and it only appears to be getting worse.
Sounds to me like these developed nations can use a bit of an economic cool down especially when it comes to prices, apparently we are in a housing shortage and the problem is not enough people? That doesn't make since. Alot of these economic sectors have been hyper stimulated to be completely unaffordable for the majority.
And also maybe these developed nations are having slowing population growth but a lot of undeveloped nations still have large birth rates. I can see a solution to be promoting immigration and working more closely as a plant rather then individual nations.
Why everyone thinks this is a problem? We just need to focus on quality of people, not quantity. We can keep industrial society if we shrink the factory. We don't need governments or taxation if we focus on trust, commitment. We have protocols now to not need centralized solutions. We changed in the past, we can change now.
Only the rich worry about population collapse because they need more customers and more cheap labor force.
This video is about pure capitalism. More consumers is good for the economy, not so much for the environment
The population decline will totally effect our society but our society can easily change and adapt. The fewer younger people will need to keep the planet clean and provide food and other resources for the older dying part of the population. Society will adapt and change to the changing economy. All someone needs to live is food clean water and shelter. Food can literally be free if the environment will support local growing of food. Shelter can basically be free with skilled use of natural renewable resources. And water can be locally cleaned. The earths civilization has to change or the earth will no longer sustain us. Its inevitable we've grown to large.
That's about right i think, & i also dont need advanced medical care to make live another 2 yrs
@@pebblepod30 advanced medical care? There were millions and millions without advanced medical care. I spent 6 years not going to doctor. If everyone grew healthy food locally outside or in green houses they would be healthier except genetic disease and communicable disease.
@@thornyturtleranch4u i agree
Great polish on your videos now. One comment is invest in a teleprompter over your camera lens so you continue to look directly at the camera and not have to switch staring back and forth on and off lens.
next thing on the list!
@@EPBResearch Great stuff. Keep on rockin'!
The, "Why not stop now?" lady is terrifying... to hear and see.
Thanks for Feminism
One factor that you did not address is WHO is having children and WHO is not. While there may indeed be a decline in childbearing in the US, I do not see this happening among the lower-income cohort. Quite the contrary. Marriage itself is declining across the board so that it is far more likely that a child born today will have only one parent (usually the mother) in its life than it is to grow up in a two-parent home. There are more economic incentives available to single moms than to two parent families, and while there are those who will take those incentives and use them as a stepping stone out of poverty and into the taxpaying class, many more will not, thus increasing the percentage of people who are government dependent. I see a big backlash coming against the poor, the disabled, and the elderly in the next few years as tax income also declines.
How do you define the difference between population decline and population collapse?
Great question.
@@boysent Maybe rate of decline relative to time, comparing it to historical population collapse events, rate of change, etc.
population collapse is a hoax , population decline is a temporal situation.
When the values of assets drastically drop, that’s when you can tell that an economy is going to slow down permanently for a long time. Because no one has the incentive to work, without becoming rich in the far future.
On top of population collapse we have peak oil. This threatens to send civilization into a new dark age period because there is an issue of the thermodynamic decline of energy at play here that wasn't present in recent population declines, but was during the latter end of prior civilizational collapse periods.
Peak oil has been predicted wrongly many times
if you're in high school, there's 2 clear options:
1. health care
2. skilled labor (plumbing/electrician/etc)
Both will be raking in mounds of money. None of us want to die from lack of healthcare. None of want to deal without plumbing/HVAC. Neither category can be offshored. Can't fix a burst pipe over the phone, and can't get your teeth cleaned over Skype.
3. You forgot programming, that is the occupation of the future, everyone will likely have to know it in some form as technology grows requiring greater innovation. Competitive market perhaps but the last job that AI will solve before it solves organic nature in itself.
dude forgot that we also need food to survive
Could you follow up on the consequences of collapse? What it does to asset prices, housing, is it avoidable? Can we automate away problems for missing labour force jobs?
None of that matters. For every population number and age distribution data set, the economy will deliver a production and price point.
It is the *political* power that is at risk. There is no population or economic "crisis"... these are facts and conditions that cannot be managed.
The problem is POLITICAL
The Maya's kings lost their power when, no matter how many sacrifices they made, the rain did not come.
The current political elites that hold power by the rituals of money printing, debt, social security ponzi scheme will also fail to deliver "rain" in the form of growth, infrastructure, benefits or privileges.
Respectfully
Hey fellow Gringa, in terms of real estate I would say look at Japan, its been in a 30 year collapse already. What I see there is fairly high prices of real estate in Tokyo but dirt cheap on the countryside. Another example is Italy which is where I live. In comparison to France which had alot of immigration, the Italian population been stagnant. As someone who is buying property on the countryside the difference in price is massive, a middle of nowhere house is 3-5X more expensive in France than Italy.. Meanwhile the price difference in the major cities (economic centers) are small between the countries.
I think it’s not just automating away the jobs but also finding more efficient solutions to taking care of the older demographic without putting too much burden and draining resources on the younger generations that will have children.
@gringadoor5385 Same thing that happened to Rome, Mycenaean Greece, Baghdad etc. The root cause is the decline in a population's avg IQ. When the avg IQ drops, the society is simply not smart enough to solve problems it once could.
The reason for the decline in the avg IQ is civilization itself. Civilization greatly reduces child mortality, removing the selection pressures that bump off babies with bad genes. Though mutations are random, the brain takes up ~80% of the human genome, this means that the chances of a mutation affecting the brain are higher than not. When selection pressures are alleviated, these bad mutations build up in the population.
Worse still is that civilization has a tendency to create the circumstance whereby poorer people are able have more children that reach adulthood. Since socioeconomic status has a large hereditary component, and is strongly correlated to IQ, this means that in effect, lower IQ people have more offspring.
Civilization tragically sows it's own destruction by removing selection pressures for high IQ.
All we can hope is that the above theories and evidence that supports it is wrong, otherwise it appears we are doomed, bar some sort of genetic engineering.
If you care to hear a better explanation on this grim matter, search for "The Jolly Heretic" in youtube.
look at japan. free houses but you have to pay very high taxes
Thanks for sharing this info! I've been thinking about this for a few years, ever since I saw an age demographic chart for the first time.
I just have to ask... What's the import? As in, okay great, the working age population is going to collapse and that's bad for a whole bunch of reasons, but what will that mean for the world? What opportunities does that create?
Negative info is worthless without a counter.
The positive is that rich people are going to have to start working, just because there's not enough poor people to do it. This will lead to labor being highly valued over capital gains and things will start to get better for most people.
The underlying premise of the video is flawed. Elderly people are victims of an order than does not let them save for retirement effectively. People are worked in their 'prime years' to the point that they accumulate health problems for later. Most of the brain damage that leads to dementia begins decades before symptoms. And they are ostracized, warehoused, and disposed of.
But even if old age consumption was unsolvable, consumption does not mean standard of living. The average American consumes a lot, but is worse off compared to anyone with decent healthcare and housing.
So instead of breeding fresh meat to throw into the economic grinder, let's replace the grinder.
Replace it with what?
Thats the major question. 🤔@@fluteloop6737
Liking the great info and I like the production value. Very nice. Sound volume was perfect 👌
Who can really feel comfortable raising a child on today's salaries. Housing now takes over 50% of the paycheck. I think you need $90,000 just to comfortably afford the median home in the USA which is over $400,000 now. We really need corporations to step up and pay their employees better so people can have children. We need our government to basically stop taxing people under 100k salaries and stop spending so much money.
Right gravity payments come to mind
I recently heard that you need to make $117,000 a year to afford the average median priced house in America in 2024. We are doomed.
I know this research focuses on first world countries, but what about massive growth in developing countries? Will their growth be able to buttress some of the productivity decline of other countries and keep global economic activity growing?
In short: no
There is no growth in developing countries because they have no savings.
Without savings, there is no credit, no debt, and no consumer economy. Just survival.
@@ricardokowalski1579 Depends on the country. I live with my wife in the Philippines. While not many people have savings, just about everybody has some form of debt and there definitely is a massive consumer economy.
That assumes they remain politically and socially stable. Developing countries have depended heavily on foreign spending for decades. Without that spending, they'll be forced to adapt or fall back into third world status.
@Tracchofyre Agreed, capital is the issue. And the problem is not "decline" of capital. Is government control of capital.
When governments regulate ownership of capital goods is a problem. But when governments intervene in the money supply and credit market they affect (and control) ALL capital goods.
Capital is required to raise above poverty, but GOVERNMENT CONTROL of capital is the only way to keep the masses poor.
@Tracchofyre if you do not know, consider
1- people did get ahead by working and saving (a long time ago)
2- people cannot save because inflation (governmeny) eats the savings away
3- people cannot work themselves out of poverty because income gets taxed (government)
4- people cannot get loans because government sets interest rates and absorbs all the credit (bonds)
Everything that keeps people poor is some form of government action.
Thank you so much for your video! Excellent!!!❤
The reality that few people are going to be able to admit is that the only way you can have a youthful population is to have rapid population growth or a lot of people dying. Given a planet where rapid population growth is unsustainable, having low death rates and long lives is going to turn the planet into an old folks home. That youth and death are two sides of the same coin are a psychological and philosophical conundrum that modern society probably isn't equipped to deal with.
Population collapsing.
Governments, banks, and the wealthy most affected.
Can't get too worked up about that.
Every major challenge now facing the human species is due to over-population, and yet people still want human population to increase for economic reasons. The inevitable result of continued runaway population increase will be either an extreme die-back, or extinction.
wait until the collapse, No workers, no wealth, old everywhere. no money for social welfare. War, famine, disease. Apocalypse.
Growth is rising in USA cos of immigration..
I liked your previous format better. But at the end it’s your excellent content that counts.
Always going to try out new styles. Thanks for the feedback
@@EPBResearch your channels needs more hot women. Its currently a sausage fest
@@neermakes He is not looking at you when talking.
This is very comparable to the world after world war II.. 80 million people died violently and whole regions leveled.
This is the kind of thing you think Gov's would be concerned about but Japan and others are running head first into this demographic/economic breakdown without any preparations. Debt levels and servicing debt will inevitably reach a breaking point. But don't worry they'll make sure energy and housing are totally unaffordable along the way.
WEF sees this as the perfect opportunity to "Reset" how the world does business.
I can only hope and pray we get some competent leaders who will address these issues intelligently.
The only reset they'll get is a bunch of pitchforks and torches.
Japan is doing just fine. The population is going down and the economy is still growing. This is a recipe for rapid per capita growth. Per capita growth is what benefits the regular people, but not the rich.
Japanese housing is decently affordable dude. Even in the major cities. Property prices never rebounded much after the speculative bubble burst in the 90's. And off course in the countryside it is not unheard of to find property basically for free, although there's little reason to live out there, which is why it's so cheap. I'd argue this is one of the major strengths of the Japanese economy. It's no longer addicted to property appreciation. And although public debt is high, private debt is fairly low, so the financial situation is not as dire as it looks.
Not that they don't have problems. The toxic work culture for example still makes a healthy work/life balance very difficult to maintain. I have friends moving out of Japan for that exact reason. However I suspect that if there is a good solution to population collapse, the Japanese will be first to discover it, since they're ahead of the curve, and they do have a history of sudden radical reform.
Great information, and presentation. Glad your channel came my way. Keep up the great work. This is better than any major news media
What about increase in living standards from emerging markets such as India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Vietnam, West Africa, etc? Can they overcome the losses in these countries in the next 30 years?
i heard a nice analogy from chris williamson interview with stephen j shaw, some places like africa are actually going to increase for a while but will eventually end up where we are "were all on the same rollercoaster but theyre just a few cars behind"
Their birthrates are (except India) still above replacement level. But demographics are wonderful because they allow us to see into near future (since before people are able to reproduce some time has to pass).
Basically they are at the same trajectory. Birthrates are plummeting with no end in sight. Their population will still grow because of demographic momentum (delay due to children growing up) but it's global phenomenon and it will destroy many countries.
It probably won't cause humanity to die off because if there aren't enough children old people will have to die off and a lot of capital will free up.
Still, quite tragic but self-correcting phenomenom.
Elonatom stop measuring everything based on a human experience. Less is more, less humans means more of something else. What else? We don't know, but if we are patient and stop worrying, we may watch it, whatever it is?
You know, you worry too much. Humanity is just one species in a long line of evolutionary expressions of life on this 3 billion years old space ship. Stop trying to run away to Mars. Stay here and just love all this planet is, not just the human things.
Great Video. How does population growth look when you factor in other nations/areas?
Yes I'd like to know too.
This is a first world problem. Men and women are not getting married and having families at the same rate as past generations. Men used to be the gateway to security for women, now women got their own money and won't settle for an 'average man". They want a top tier 1 to 10% man in height, income, strength and everything else. Anything less than that is settling, and women are told they can "have it all", and "deserve it". First world countries like USA and Europe will depopulate. Africa will be the new China. Countries that have traditional gender roles have more babies. It's that simple. United States is on a path to a long slow decline.
Educate, impower and provide choice to women, seems great! 🎉
Less demand on housing too, seems like the only downside is for the people that have all the capital and own all the homes
This is just the next phase in the "mouse utopia experiment". We've known this since they did the experiment in the 50's.
it really is like an MIT experiment. Even this guy talks about house price falls as a bad thing just because it shows up as "growth".
Do you want more expensive groceries? Why does he want more expensive housing?
@Henry George economists look through the eyes of GDP UP=GOOD, GDP DOWN=BAD. Housing is the backbone of construction and manufacturing jobs. Boomer politicians sacrificed the demographics of the country in order keep their home prices at astronomical levels and ever increasing. Economists think "young people good", falling to see the quality of the young people they are examining. Most zoomers don't care to partake in the system as it stands.
Because if house prices long term go down, then investing in real estate is pointless since a house becomes more of a liability than an asset
What does that mean "Can We Avoid" ? We are half way through allready. It´s only at the very end of the collapse we will noticed it like a punch in the face. And some will still say... We didn´t see i comming.
I'm a 30 year old man in IT and I'm not alone in the view that if I'm never likely to afford a house and if I were to get divorced and have everything I've worked for taken away from me and given to my ex wife, why should I bother hustling for the almighty dollar and contributing to the economy in my golden years of working?
Because you're human , and you can be more than a parasite. You can create something amazing through your life.
Divorce laws, feminism and abortion are the root cause of the demographic collapse
Video production is top notch!! Keep knocking it out of the park!
Great work as always, and a new level of production quality! Keep it up!
As always, I like your informative videos. I like the new format!
This is not actually a problem. This is only a problem for the tax man. He just needs to buy fewer yachts and let people grow their own food again. If he really wants to solve the population "crisis" he might want to consider how exactly his policies effect the people's willingness to get married and have children.
Well you need people to replace the careers that serve our society, whether its medicine or construction or whatever else. Unless you want to end up in a hut or something
@@readinggorilla6365 Self reliance will replace a great deal of all of those things, we'll build our own houses, we'll make our own medicine, we can even make our own cars so long as we have access to the tools and materials to do so. Then, once a significant portion of the population is no longer reliant on the corporate economy it'll actually be easier to build families again and start raising the population again. If you're worried about ending up living in a hut I think a reassessment of our priorities away from luxury and toward independence and productivity should do some good.
@@MrAbrahamleon hey I am all for being a jack of all trades, and I am from a farming background where we did self sustain for much of our life out if necessity. But I don't have enough faith in man and peoples work ethic. It's incredibly hard to live like that, and your always working at it, and I dont think people have the resilience/fortitude to do it
Agreed, a farming/subsistence way of life is a hard life. The work never ends, and don't even think about retirement.
This video is production gold, great job!
How does potential age reversal/slowing therapies, treatments, and engineering factor into this? Hard to project, but reasonably likely that we will see a boom in life extending and aging reversing treatments/scientific breakthroughs. This would effectively extend the "sweet spot" population age and mitigate much of the decline.
That’s possible but it maybe a while before we discover the science/technology to do that. Most of the population may die before we discover that technology/science and it becomes mainstream. Keep in mind boomers are between 78-59 years old right now and the average life expectancy is 80 so not a lot of time
@@MeMe-zq7qd We don't need boomers. I'm personally hoping the next pandemic takes them off our hands. Without old people to take care of, we'd being doing pretty well.
really like the graphs, top video
What about the 24 year olds?! Or 23?! I started working at 18! They’re pretending you just start working at 25
I don't even believe in work.
Many between 18-24 are in college/university so not making a lot of money from their part-time/intern jobs
Inflation made the decision for us. We realized early on we could never afford kids and rely on government assistance to feed them. I would be so embarrassed.
Mad kudos for being the first youtuber (that I am aware of) to speak about the effect of demographics on the economy in a future looking sense.
I think its really interesting that in most of the developed world (or at least the regions referenced in the video) there is such spectrum with respect to culture, governance, and economic systems/situations, and yet none have figured out how to keep people wanting at least 2 kids.
Many want kids but can not afford. People live with parents longer, marry later have kids later, by that age smaller biological window to have kids so there’s only one or two. Then it becomes engrained in culture, and the age pyramid is on a sustained narrowing trend.
Look into Peter Zeihan
He speaks about this a LOT
Pravi broj je blizi 4+ jer je odavno poznato da iz kojeg god razloga oko pola ljudi nece imati dece do kraja zivota. To znaci oni koji imaju moraju da imaju duplo, tj. vise od cetiri i to samo da odrze populaciju, nema rasta. A ti razmisli, gro ljudi bi gledalo nekoga sa petoro dece ko seljaka, sve je naopako pa nije ni cudo sto padamo.
Simple. On the farm kids are an asset as it is additional hands to work the farm and the incremental cost is negligible. In the city, kids are a cost and in the last 20+ years capitalist have become greedier and greedier raising costs to ridiculous levels (just look at the cost of daycare these days). But capitalism doesn't plan for the long term so we will ride this gravy train right off the cliff. Note that the only reason the U.S. doesn't have declining population is because of massive immigration. (we currently have about 44 million people in the U.S. that came from another country (77% of those legally).
Peter Zeihan talks about the influence of demographics on geopolitics and economics, but the timeline of some of his predictions isn't very good IMHO. If you want a detailed deep dive specifically into the link between demographics and the economy, leaving out most of the geopolitical conclusions, then investigate Harry Dent. His predictions of an economic downturn were almost a decade premature, but to give the guy a break, several unpredictable factors delayed the downturn.
All the best Selena.
If one owns the market one can manage through a population decline
A bit like Jordan Peterson.
Sheer unadulterated ego drive him to talk about stuff well beyond his expertise!
If he stuck to that, he almost be silent!
Love the new format! One small suggestion would be to pull out a bit on the close ups. Right now it feels a bit claustrophobic to me. Interesting content as always though.
Japan, America, and Europe are wealthy enough to draw quality immigrants in the 20 - 30 yr old age range. This would offset demographics and add to economic growth. If they chose that route.
The more healthy avenue is to make 2 - 3 kids per household economically viable and socially desirable. This means economic policy that puts young people on track to being secure by age 30, before the biological clock goes terminal.
Europe also draws Vero low quality immigrants mostly young men who won't have children and will only atarim the system.
No, and that's great. 500 mln - 1 bln is optimal max, we don't need more. Somebody even benefits from this huge number? It's time to reverse trend and they doing just that (Musk too).
I believe that US stocks surge from 60s up to 2010 are primarily due to rapidly growing population. And accelerated lately with QE fuel after '08 crisis
This new edition and animation is very esthetically pleasing, looks polished and high quality. Also the point is well put by going through the various arguments.
Please let's make this happen...
Do you want to have to take care of 4-7 retired people while also taking care of kids?
@@badass6300 I really don't care about you, lazy people who have kids that I support with my taxes, nor retired people who can't take care of themselves. Get it?
Dont worry, AI and robots will take care of old people.@@badass6300
@@badass6300 There aren't many kids to care for. In the 1960s, my father supported himself and five other people for 20 years.
No it won't be a major problem because the problem is going to be you have to realize too that we have illegal immigrants coming across the border all the time women and children that are directions to provide many in plenty of slaves for the industrial complex
Whoa chill EPB, we just wanted house prices to go down a little, not doom the four major superpowers of the world!
exactly, the only take away here is "debt levels will not be able to serviced". So, all the crazy government spending on war, corruption, greed will collapse and we'll all now have to deal with the consequences.
Child birth should become a privilege, which deserve the best one. We don't need quantity any more, only quality.
Population decreasing is not as bad as it sounds.
- Governments just have to do better with their spending.
- Markets can still grow if the workforce is more productive (new machinery, better hours/rotations, business opened 24/7 but working globally).
- If 3rd World Countries continue developing, they will experience a population expansion. We can trade with those new 'now available' countries to replace the shrinking population in others.
We've been experiencing too much abundance so we could afford to be incompetent.
Paradigm shifts brings us opportunities to fix and improve our situation so that, instead of damaging us, we end up benefiting in the long term.
The bigger problem is that we need experts in key positions to come with appropriate solutions to new problems that do not only benefit those in power.
Right now we have 3 workers for a position that requires only 1. And most times the other 2 do not even help. They are just supervisors.
If population shrinks, governments would also need less spending and less people working for it being paid with tax money.
It's only a problem because capitalist economic systems assume infinite growth. Even when the very first thing everyone learns in Economy 101 is that resources are limited. We simply need to change the dominating economic system.
To which system, pray tell?
@@fluteloop6737 something based on meaningful collaboration instead of cutthroat competition
We need something new that's never been done before because everything else that we've tried has failed.
Don't mention the fact that young adults don't have money, just stick to demographics to deflect core issue. Nice
There is nothing bad on the global population decreasing. Less population means better environment, less pollution, less unemployment and so on.
You just proved that you're a complete idiot.
Thank you.
Man this channel gonna blow up
great video as always, I do have a question though by the end of the decade japan's economy will be surpassed by India wouldn't that change the stats as the prominent 4 economic regions would total even more people and India's inclusion will offset the decline?
Look at the GDP per capita of India vs Japan. The consumption patterns will be entirely different. The size of an economy is only one metric you need to look at when comparing.
Comparing India with Japan its insanne India its a trash country Japan has the problem they work much but people dint make kids
India is a slum and bullshit economy that can collapse any time ...... GDP per capita is 2500, which is lower than many African countries
Yo! The upgrade in production is fuckin dope! You ain't a rock, you a gem, boo
Honestly, for productivity this could be negated as an issue with better AI.
The problem with replacing jobs with AI is for the remaining people. How will they make money if all jobs are done by AI? There will be no incentive for companies to hire real people when AI can do everything faster and more efficient than humans. Hiring humans will become redundant meaning no on can make money
True, but the problem we currently have is that there is a growing disconnect between labor and technology. You would need to train a skilled workforce that could work with the new automating technology, which we are lacking right now, and that would take time and lots of money.
Furthermore, that would only allow us to maintain current standards of living, not increase. This is because with less working population, but still more people to take care off, inflation would get worse. So we need to do super automation and skilled education in order to increase standards of living
Great video about a very serious problem. My only recommendation would be to include South Korea as well, as they're in a similar demographic free fall situation.
So I am guessing maybe gold, healthcare, and value stocks over the next few decades..
This is what im also thinking, mantra drom last 50years about whole index investing may be different bc of demografy shift, could be useful to look at japan for last 10-15years by equiyy sector performance
Healthcare and Information Technology
Parents: don't have children until you're married.
Millennials: okay!
basically young people have been told at least from millennial and on ward is you would need to cross all your t's and dot all your i's before you are qualifeid to marry. and ... well turns out not a good idea.
3:19 "the catastrophic problem for the global economy"
There is not a "population problem". Lower number of workers will mean better salaries. Empty housing will drive down prices.
There is not an "economic problem". There will be a supply/demand price point for every step down, just as we had on the way up. Resource use will decline, water supply will be plentiful.
All there is is a (government) FISCAL problem. There will be a collapse of tax revenue. What will collapse is income, value added, sales and other taxes streams. Massive debts incurred on the assumption that population would rise forever will create *political* turmoil.
Paraphrasing George Carlin: It's not the population, the economy or the world that is effed... it's the political establishment.
(ALSO)... a smaller population with smaller young cohorts prevents politicians from declaring wars. They will not have the manpower. And even if the "win" the population may further collapse!
Exactly right. Workers get more wages and cheaper housing. Rentiers get less of a cut, and the numbers on their little spreadsheets go down.
@@edubmf precisely. None of that is a problem, much less a crisis.
But for politicians? They get their money selling land use permits, and property, sales, value added and income taxes.
And by graft in roadwork and other infrastructure.
THAT is where the "crisis" will be
Tax the rich? 🤔
@@CheshireHomeChronicles no...starve the government
No taxes, no politicians, no debt, no problem
I love that I, as a young man in my early 20s, get the immense privilege of paying off debts taken out against my future by previous generations. What a kind gift they've left me!
I also get to pay into the government mandated ponzi scheme (social security), healthcare i will never receive (medicare/medicaid) and have 30% of whats left to get lost by the pentagon!
Thanks for another excellent video!
What these alarmists fail to consider are the predictions that new technologies, especially in AI and continued advancements in robotic automation, will result in at least 20% of today's jobs becoming obsolete in the same timeframe that the working population decreases by 18%. The equation will likely balance itself out, as long as we can level off with a modest decrease to ~7B people.
AI is very, very overrated and it is already past the point of diminishing returns.
The issue is robots and AI don't pay taxes and thus don't contribute anything to the maintenance of society. If anything AI will only make the problem even worse.
@Novusod AI also doesn't need to be fed food that's more expensive than electricity do no food stamps for AI, and they don't require parental leave, childcare, or medical care, or disability payments, etc. So AI robots neither pay taxes nor consume as many resources that require taxes.
@@Novusod The people who own the AI pay taxes on the profits generated by the AI.
That's highly unlikely, even IF we have the technology, we wouldn't have the infrastructure to do it. 20% of 8 billion is 1.6 billion, 1.6 billion of machines needed to replace the humans that did their job. Granted we wouldn't need to build that much, but even a million machines would be a massive challenge even for advanced countries. Much less several hundred millions of em. Blind faith in technology is as bad as blind faith to religion.
Even before I watch. The answer in no.
Population dynamics 101: exponential Population increase ends in Population crash.
Why would we want to avoid population collapse. Less people is less traffic and more parking spots. I moved to Syracuse, NY after living in NYC and the fact that there is never traffic makes a huge difference.
Holy shit, about to see the world default on it's debt in the coming years, gonna be lit
That won't happen. We have too many democrat voters that love to raise the debt ceiling.
Prepare for it, don't trust fiat and buy goods, land, and products to store value.
I’m going to stop pulling out and if she gets mad I’ll say I’m saving the human race I’m a hero you’re welcome! 😂😂😂😂