Tesla's $25,000 Car and FSD - The Future of Profitability Unveiled! Wall Street's Misunderstanding
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- Опубліковано 4 жов 2024
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Elon and Tesla where FSD gets approved in Europe you need to make Lars your first non-employee tester. he would make a great ambassador for the brand.
Shooting from Th hip not reading a script Bestin-who HA
Make me the second one please 😅
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FSD 12.5.4 is basically level 5! I use it every day and drive over 35,000 miles not kilometers every year and FSD today is basically fully autonomous and I’m really just waiting for them to announce that😂🙏💕
I also have 12.5.4 and use it every day, 2021MYLR with HW3. It usually works fine but once it made a left turn in front of an on coming semi and then stopped and disengaged in the middle of the road, another time it merged to a left lane with oncoming traffic when it should have just gone straight through an intersection. I reported these with the voice report, so hopefully those reports have some use at Tesla to make things better but I have never heard what happens to the reports. Kind of scary, 12.3.6 had problems too but never did this. I'm starting to wonder if the 'video clip' training can ever overcome these issues. My wife refuses to ride in the car with FSD on. Pay attention when using FSD my friends.
Hi, question for you. I’m in Australia where we don’t have FSD yet. In your experience how many miles do you drive between critical interventions? That is if you had not intervened an accident would likely have occurred? Thanks
@@kdb4u Thank you! So I just got V12.5.4 and you are exactly correct, as this particular version of the software in my opinion sucks, it is not better than what I had previously, and just as you said, it makes mistake, after mistake, it gets in the wrong lane, makes terrible decisions about when to get into the correct lane in order to get set up for the next turn in navigation.
So based on my experience with this particular version of the software, Tesla needs to fix this, before someone gets killed, as you cannot trust it, and you have better keep your eye on what this version of FSD is capable of doing, because in my opinion it’s downright dangerous.
So I have actually lost confidence in Tesla’s ability to fix this thing, and to get it right, and I hope I’m wrong and they have figured out how to fix this, but coming on the heels of the big event which is only a few days away. I am shocked, and disappointed, that ASS, Actually, Smart, Summon, isn’t very smart as far as I can determine, because along with this particular version they gave me ASS, which they promised to do, and I’m driving a 2024 Tesla Model S with H/W 4, with the new high Fidelity cameras and ASS, simply doesn’t work.
So I don’t know what these UA-camrs are doing to get theirs to work, because I haven’t been abled to do much of anything with it, and so I am planning to stop by the Tesla service center to find out whether they can tell me if I am using the app correctly, because the last couple of times I tried to get this thing to work, it simply failed. At first it wouldn’t even connect to the car, and when it did, it only after I changed locations from one side of my apartment complex building to the other side, and then it connected, but when I tried to use it, it wasn’t very good at actually coming and finding me and it simply gave up and stop in the middle of the driveway blocking traffic. It was embarrassing, and I simply cannot believe just how bad ASS is at this late stage of the game. How could this be, I’m asking myself.
So I’m shocked, and thoroughly disappointed. In fact I am pissed, because I’ve been waiting a long time for this to happen, as I bought into full self driving when it first rolled out, and it was 3K, watched it go all the way to 15K, and now it has settled back at 8K, and so I recommend that no one buy in until they get this thing figured out. Cheers 🥂
There are almost no critical interventions. I am amazed at how the car can anticipate a large semi turning radius and stop in advance to allow the turn of the semi to finish,freeing up my lane. (The truck turning from a side road towards me). It anticipates drivers jumping the gun and illegally turning left in front of you even with my right of way. It spots people opening doors when parked and either stops or moves a little into the opposite lane if traffic allows.😂
Do you actually know what Level 5 autonomy is? It's Fully Automated Driving. Vehicles capable of Level 5 Autonomy will be able to drive on any road that has been mapped and can be navigated by a human driver. That means all weather and road conditions that a human driver can successfully navigate.
FSD will become shockingly valuable once approved.
And I’m shocked Tradfi simply ignores the math.
999999999.999999999999 % safer than a human
Architectural simplification, design for manufacture, a high degree of automation, elements of the unboxed production process, and Optimus Humanoid Robots will all likely contribute to high margins and high production volumes for Tesla's forthcoming less expensive car.
Cars designed to be built with (eventually) no human labor. Not only labor savings, but higher rates of production and more precision.
What happens when the Tesla bots unionize and go on strike ??? Huh ?? What happens then, huh??@@bobwallace9753
That's a good bet 😂
Good things will come. 😊
A superabundance of everything!!!!
( modem EDIT GALORE )
If that $25,000 Tesla comes out, it will further wipe out the competition. With full self driving in an affordable car, there will be no reason for people to buy anything else or any other brand.
We already have the 25k BEV Here in Europe,just bot from Tesla!
Hopefully the new Tesla will look like a real car, not like a cartoon car.
Elon stated explicitly they they delayed Mexico for two reasons:
1) recession concerns
2) better to build assembly system in Austin
They won’t need Mexico to launch $25k vehicle. 👍🏻
Also political risk, Trump wants to put tariffs on cars made in Mexico. Probably won't happen, but it's a risk.
Texas Gigafactory is HUGE! They have a lot of room to grow.
@@andrasbiro3007
That happened after the delay.
@@andrasbiro3007
Can he do it via Exec Action?
I don’t think so
I believe the FTA would override it. He would have to get Congress support. Ain’t happening.
Campaign hot air vs reality. Both sides do it.
100% true. Once they made it in the Texas faciliti it will be a matter of duplicating the lines at Ber,in, and China. The Mexico plat is needed for latin america where BYD and other China manufacturers are running the market.
Lars, thank you. Your video explains perfectly the growth of Tesla and the choices they have made to date. Obviously, their choice for FSD --->Robotaxis will provide more profits than another vehicle. Once Robotaxis and FSD are the norm, then a 25K car could be introduced, perhaps, but WHY? Owning a Robotaxi which would work for you 90% of the time is much more interesting !
China can make inexpensive EVs and Korea will join them. That means competition and competition mean profits minimized. I don't see it making sense for Tesla to enter a low margin, high volume market.
Profits on robotaxis should be immense. Massive as Tesla takes the Uber/Lyft/taxicab market. Still huge once Tesla scales up to cover most private car ownership. If it costs Tesla about $0.25/mile, all costs in, to operate a robotaxi and it costs about $0.60/mile to drive one's own car Tesla could provide private ownership competition and still make a 100% markup.
Yeah don't say that ..I want my 25k car 😂😂
I hope they can't do fsd and have to make ones for consumers first. 😂
The 25k car (not fully unboxed) can be made in the Austin TX plant early next year. It can also be built in other existing plants. It’s going to provide way more revenue and much earlier than RoboTaxi.
If you can earn as much in a year from your percentage of the ride share then the people who are using RoboTaxi are paying much more (as a group) for the service than it costs to own a car. It’s going to be an expensive service in comparison to owning a 25k car if you are the average driver or family in the US.
Optimus and other robots are where the real money is going to come from.
Automation and Optimus will make cheap Mexican labour unneccesary
I am a Tesla Bull as you are, but the 30% reduction was not only from the method, it was also the economy of scale. this would be also true for other, but they all scaling down :-)
I am really super pumped what the unboxing will do. But this also has to scale.
The new car will enable further scaling.
@@andrasbiro3007 totally. But IT will Take time
One thing I'm curious about with the robotaxi concept is how often are they cleaned and who by? What if somebody trashes them, what are the consequences for them?
Honestly, I'm just waiting for the next generation Model Y (Juniper).
Hopefully before Jan ‘25
2025 earliest.
I want the same car pictured in the title !! Now!!! 80k-90k fine with me !!!
The idea of a robotaxi dwarfs the idea of a $25000 car
Robotaxi profits should be enormous. Elon stated, pre-covid inflation, that Tesla could cover all the expenses of a robotaxi company for less than $0.18 per mile. Boost that up to $0.25/mile now, just to be safe.
Imagine going after the Uber/Lyft/taxicab business that charges, on average, $2/mile. Plus tips. Tesla could charge $1.75/mile and net $1.50/mile. Massive profits.
same Platform.
@@markplott4820 same platform, different business models. Thats what I'm talking about
They will start building the M2 in Austin.
When robotaxi fsd comes out I’d love to see how many people will line up to put their HW3+ Teslas through the abuse for a measly $0.30 per mile or so.
Yeah I could never understand why someone would want to use their personal vehicle for a taxi ...😂
Buying one to just be a taxi I could see..
If it pays off my Tesla in a year or two and funds its replacement in the next year or two I would. Being able to buy in cash a New Tesla every year there after or anything else equivalent is damned sexy as an investment.
@@Gunter_Custom I bought mine exclusively for ride share. However, anyone who is familiar with how ride share works, it's not all sunshine and rainbows. There are a lot of rides I don't accept for many reasons - maybe the area isn't good on the drivetrain, maybe it's a dangerous area, or maybe $$ isn't worth the electricity and wear on the car. And this is while making decent money.
@@Barskor1 If you plan to buy a brand new Tesla with cash every 2 years (forget 1 year), you're going to need more than one robotaxi.
Edit: I did the math for you. You'll need about 4 robotaxis for your sexy investment.
Assuming you buy used 200K M3 rwd at about $15K each and run them 300 miles a day. I'm assuming you don't have $60K on hand so you'll have to finance that. Monthly payments will be around $1000 total with OK credit. Throw in insurance. Let's make it $1,500 even a month. Add charging expenses (300 miles a day = 109K miles, about 27K kWh / year * $0.33 per kWh and this is being generous, that's 9K/year per car, that's an additional $45K per year). Now we're up to $63K just to break even so far. Let's add tires. You go on eBay and buy the cheapest possible you can get. At 109K miles that's about 3 tire replacements per car. $500 installed * 3 = $1500 a year * 4 teslas. You're up to $69K just to break even now.
Month 6 arrives. You haven't broken even yet in this ideal scenario. But you will probably start seeing profit at month 7. You do want to pay them in full before you buy your new Tesla cash, otherwise it wouldn't make sense. Being that you've made 7 payments on them and the first payments are mostly interest, let's put your payoff at another $45K.
Year 1 ends and you haven't made profit, but at least you have 4 teslas with 300K miles each ready to go the next year. Subtract monthly payments from everything above ($12000 total) and you'll probably start making profit towards your brand new base model 3 after say, 6 months.
This is assuming nothing went wrong and everything went perfectly as espected with your 300 miles per day abuse on 200K mile cars. Good luck.
As far as I remember Elon mentioned the Cybercab manufacturing to begin at Texas the beginning of next year...
pilot production not factory.
cancelling the base RWD model 3 in the USA didn't help..
One needs to wonder why they did. Perhaps Tesla is going to announce a less expensive EV to be made on the Model 3 and Model Y lines in Austin. Let's say they've figured out how to retail the car at $35k, about $5k less than the Model 3 standard range. That less expensive EV is likely to cannibalize the M3 SR sales.
The battery pack in the base model 3 RWD is from China. So the car is now subject to Biden’s tariff as well as being unable to gain a credit. So the car has simply been dropped, not because Tesla wanted to, but government red tape made it an issue
CYBERTRUCK = Best selling EV pick-up truck in USA 🎉🏆🥇
……….low bar prevails YEHEHE
In your dreams
Model Y almost #1 in the USA (RAV4 #1).
model Y outsold F150, Silverado, gmc & ram.
also outsold camary, carolla ,civic , rogue and equinox .
Charging stations are not ready
WUT ?
I don’t think the rear wheels will be that big, I think it was covers to hide the back end, perhaps the single rear wheel.
Only similarity between Vw and TESLA is number of wheels and tires
I think you are spot on Lars, being realistic with the Tesla 25K$ compact. To most people FSD level 4-5 and the robotaxi are like pies in the sky. There is a market for the cyber in the USA, but the niche product wont move the needle in Europe or China. We both knows the narrow roads of europe and the super small parking lots, and I know people that would like a Tesla, but the M3 is simply too big, not mentioning the models S&X and the cyber. Remember Elon said, that the Compact could be made on the present 3/Y production lines, and to my knowledge, these lines are only used for production 4 days a week by now, so there is a lot of available employees and idle capasity, to start up production of the compact car right away. The huge ramp will follow, when Berlin and Shanghai finishes building their extensions.
That picture u got on front page is SUPER STOKED PANTY MAGNET LOOKIN RIDE…… “go team go team “
We keep talking about a $25k EV. But that is a pre-inflation number. If we adjust $25k to account for the ~25% inflation we have endured post-covid, maybe it's a $32k EV.
IMO they are going for a car that costs 25K to make and sell for 32K - $7500 tax credit. The real 25K car will start production much later, in 2027-2029.
I think you may be right. I expect an EV selling for $35k or less to be announced next week. A replacement for the now discontinued Model 3 Standard Range. A less expensive EV built on the Model 3 and Y assembly lines. Something that can come to market very soon. It may already have started production.
My guess is that there is a prototype "line" for the unboxed EV inside the Austin plant. Whether it's yet producing some test vehicles, no guess but maybe. I suspect a year of shakedown on a new unboxed EV and then serious production startup. 2027 doesn't sound unreasonable, maybe a year sooner. A dedicated factory might be 2027. China can set up a factory and get it going in a year.
Tesla $15,000 car.
Sensible rollout plan for Cybercab and Model 2: 1) Start unboxed production of Cybercab at Giga-Texas. Debug process at world HQ with engineers and Elon on-site. 2) Start Cybercab production at Giga-Shanghai and Giga-Berlin. Ramp unboxed production there. Optionally do the same with Giga-Mexico for Central/South America deliveries (unaffected by potential US tariffs). 3) With Unboxed technique, the only difference between Cybercab and Model 2 is the front module. Once Cybercab fully ramped (so production capacity is high), start producing Model 2 front modules (w/left and right hand drive versions) and vehicles worldwide. Adjust Cybercab:Model 2 production ratio dynamically to demand.
The $25K car will be made in Giga Texas first.
pilot ONLY.
The prototype robot assembly & $25k robotaxi plant are being built and perfected at Giga Texas. Tesla is already ahead of the game; they are learning from mistakes building the machines that builds the machine.
Sandbagging probably. Likely to announce a one more thing next call
@@gianluigicassin868 They are building the protype assembly line using state of the art robotics in multi functioning capacity. Even the machine that build the world's smartest car, itself has become the most state-of-the-art machine. That Texas factory is smarter than ever. Tesla is an AI driven manufacturing robotics company. In the world of making robots (cars & androids) Tesla is first and AI will make them only nimbler, smarter and faster than everybody else in forward growth. Copying Tesla seems to now be the best thing because the gap is widening.
Tesla's meagpacks will bring in a lot of money, starting right now.
Over the first three quarters of 2024, Tesla installed more Megapacks than they did in all of 2023. If they have a good fourth quarter they could double 2023.
As for FSD, until Tesla achieves level 4 or level 5 certification in the US, Tesla will not earn much income from FSD, even with license subscriptions made available to its customers for 3 reasons, namely, 1) without certification, you don’t know when the sw will maim or kill you due to a sw bug, 2) the exposure to liability for damages to others property and injury resulting from failures of FSD incurred by the Tesla owner, and 3) as failures of FSD occur, the less likelihood the sw will gain widespread adoption by Tesla owners. In short, attempting to resort to widespread adoption of FSD without governmental certification will likely result in the death of FSD at the expense of the Tesla ownership.
Big revenue from riders depends on mass adoption of the tesla summon app - that will be difficult to achieve. If only there was some other big social media app that already had billions of users that they could partner with...🤔
Your assumption that full autonomy will come before the $25K car seems contrary to Andrej Karpathy's estimate that full autonomy will arrive sometime in "the next few years".
Well, this is not totally correct. Tesla said the 25.000 Dollar Car will be produced first in Austin. So, the factory is already there. Scaling to EU would be easier or Mexico that would take much longer, if even. That will be determent in the US Election i would guess.
no dedicated Factory, only PILOT production.
There is a big roadblock to Tesla's robotaxi that everybody seems to ignore. Only private owners will be able to take advantage of the "ride share" classification that allows them to avoid the large expense of registering and licensing a taxi. All cars owned by Tesla will have to be bonafide taxi with the restrictions and costs that come with that. Where I live there is no Uber service, and I recently learned it is because they don't allow the "ride share" loophole. If Uber wants to operate here, they have to register as a taxi service. Tesla robotaxi will be able to undercut standard taxi fares, but not Uber ride-share.
Who cares.
@@richard_zanormous3648⭐️
Who new !!! Ty soldier
Can't wait for that 25,000 car so I just have to wait for a used one to come on the market then I can finally afford one
A new Tesla Model 3 costs less than a FREE new Honda Accord over the life of the vehicle.
You among millions.
Sixth owner for da sho hehe
Value of cleaner air is PRICELESS @@davidbeppler3032
Just buy a used Chevy Bolt
hi, thank you, you are greatly appreciated... can we get a lnk to your intro music for use as a ring tone maybe?
Tesla will also gonna make a good profit margin on selling the Semi truck. Where they are already half way building the factory. Can't wait for that to happen 🙂
Nnnaaaaaaaaaaw u don’t say
The biggest problem with cheaper cars from legacy auto (and now Chinese brands) is sacrificing on safety, not just on features or tech. In fact, I would say the Chinese OEMs would trade off infotainment, features, etc. vs. safety, where there is way less regulatory pressure (shout out to the Wuling Hongguang Mini).
Legacy auto , must DEcontent to make a lower priced segment car.
TESLA can make Multiple lower priced models for Different Markets , at the same time.
and on the same Platform.
@@markplott4820 Yes, legacy auto is idiotic with way too many models, like GM planning to release 30 EV models in 2025. Ya, right Mary. How's that going?
However, why would Tesla want or need to make multiple models, for different markets? They are nearing homologation in India (for all four of their models), which is a very challenging environment. They simply need to make relatively minor modifications - creating regional versions, not models. Multiple models is inconsistent with Tesla's approach of one category killer per category, and would greatly hurt economies of scale. Even the semi, which people said could never be compliant in Europe, now meets local requirements and it only took relatively minor modifications - its a version not a new model.
@@machoopichoo2 - new MY should be Retooled for CHINA, Berlin & USA.
Berlin could produce own M3 hot hatch.
China could make MX style "basic" M3.
USA could make "basic" M3 as well.
and refresh MY.
@@markplott4820 OK, let's break this down. A hot hatch could be built on the M3/Y platform, and that would make it a new model. But I think a hatch will be the "$25K" car (final unboxed version, not anything interim), built on its own platform - the "compact" in Tesla's Master Plan 3 (MP 3). I think there could be a sub-compact (like a Honda Fit or Toyota Yaris) that sells for say $15K and is built on the robo-taxi platform. I don't think this is inconsistent with MP 3 because the robo-taxi is not covered in the model lineup in that document.
That said, why would they "retool" the 3 or Y? To reduce economies of scale on some of the best selling cars in the world (Y being the best in the world), especially with the mass market compact coming soon? Sure, some versions of the Y/3 could come and go (e.g., SR RWD Model Y) but there is zero need to heavily modify these models for markets where they are already selling amazingly. Again, the M/Y are fine for India, with relatively minor modifications.
@@markplott4820 OK, let's break this down. A hot hatch could be built on the M3/Y platform, and that would make it a new model. But I think a hatch will be the "$25K" car (final unboxed version, not anything interim), built on its own platform - the "compact" in Tesla's Master Plan 3 (MP 3). I think there could be a sub-compact (like a Honda Fit or Toyota Yaris) that sells for say $15K and is built on the robo-taxi platform. I don't think this is inconsistent with MP 3 because the robo-taxi is not covered in the model lineup in that document.
That said, why would they "retool" the 3 or Y? To reduce economies of scale on some of the best selling cars in the world (Y being the best in the world), especially with the mass market compact coming soon? Sure, some versions of the Y/3 could come and go (e.g., SR RWD Model Y) but there is zero need to heavily modify these models for markets where they are already selling amazingly. Again, the M/Y are fine for India, with relatively minor modifications.
It will definitely be the $25,000 car at first the FSD taxi will be in a few years or more.
25k car is made on 3/Y line in Texas. Will ramp during 2025.
I certainly like Tesla vehicles. But that is because of all their features, the design itself and all the amenities, as well as the safety and savings factors, etc. It is a smart car - not just an electric car. Therefore, I am not expecting Tesla to produce a $25,000 car by "cheapening" it - e.g., reducing the quality of the materials, audio and visual systems, seats and upholstering, etc. Or simply omitting features of adding them as costly "options." IMO, that does not count as "unboxed savings." What does count is if they continue to produce fine automobiles for less cost of manufacturing.
Wow this is horrible,Game over for Tesla!63% less Profits then last year!
50% off costs compared to right now with unboxed is the inderlying assumption for your whole argument. Would be nice to know how. Unboxed still uses same amount of materials, just assembles them different order. 50% off just because of unboxed seems a bit high, maybe 50% of the assembly cost and not total costs
The process is to build the different sides of the car on different lines and merge only at the end. So mounting items like tapestry, electrical connections, etc should become much easier and take much shorter. We shall see if that's true. And then there's the economy of scale and the lower battery pricing.
@@gianluigicassin868
Tesla is innovating in other ways. For example, they are using less expensive aluminum for their main battery wiring in the Cybertruck. They cast the wire as a rigid piece which is much easier to install if the vehicle is designed to take a rigid connection.
Then, if there's a lot of automation, the rate at which cars are produced should increase. Making more cars per hour/year means fixed costs can be spread over more cars, reducing the cost of each car.
Model 2 & Robo Taxi; will be made in Austin initially. 1 half 2025
Volkswagen could produce M2 with Tesla licences.
So will they need "FSD PARK ONLY " parking slots in parking lots? This would insure no one steals the spot during summons mode. I'm just saying 🤷. Regards
Why? Like a human, the Tesla with FSD will look for an empty space and park itself. It might be smart enough to not diddle around the spaces closest to the front of the building since it won't be concerned about walking from car to store.
Idiot Analysts that continue to discount FSD don't have a clue. I love how good FSD (supervised) drives right now on 12.5.4 OTA. Totally excellent in my view and I use it every day on all my drives. It will be epochally ($$$) worthwhile for Tesla in near future. The future of autonomous driving is here now IMHO. You nailed it again Lars!
Does anyone have a clue as to how much the ride will cost compared with Uber, Lyft, etc? I would love to be able to visit family on the opposite side of Atlanta without me driving. BUT, cost is a huge factor. If it is not cheaper than other services, I'll pass.
Diff cost ride share vs robotaxis vs personal owner ta public it’s monkey wrench
Nobody (or a few) will pay more than 10k$ for private FSD use. It is fun to show, like ASS, but won’t be used daily.
Only robotaxi will make money with FSD.
I would use it everyday, not the ASS but the FSD for the daily commute
If Tesla needs a boost in sales they could offer FSD free for 3 years, rather than reduce the sales price by $5,000. When a customer compares a car with FSD to a manually driven car Tesla's share of the automotive market will zoom. When the 3 years are up a $100 per month subscription will bring in income for the life of the car.
Actually I would like the option of paying FSD by miles driven
Then, after paying for your Tesla, you have to continually be paying, month by month forever just to make its features work, what a world class SCAM
$25k carwill come in 2027 but more affordable vehicles will come next year
The iD3 in China costs $15.000 ⁉️ And here in EU 45.000€ ⁉️ VW do not enough margins ... BIG BS ⁉️😅
😂🤣 cost price does not mean they earn anything 😂
@@BestInTESLA
Losing money in an attempt to maintain a market presence?
@@BestInTESLA big BS ⁉️
BestinTesla - another great video.
I think Tesla will do refresh model Y , sometime in 2025.
Tesla will have pilot production of $25k NGV / Robotaxi (same platform) @ GigaTX.
GigaMX is on hold until after NEW American President is elected.
Tesla Chyna, Berlin , Fremont & TX can all be adapted to make NEW model Y and $25k NGV / Robotaxi.
Tesla will likely KILL mx/ms @ Fremont to also make RT/$25k vehicles.
in 2025 Tesla will start producing semi in Dedicated factory & make 4680 cell there.
in China will make Megapacks.
in Lathrop Megapacks will ramp.
in GigaTX will ramp 4680 cell production.
Try to give out your family car "to be driven" by some strangers for 10 hours and when you get the car back you will say "Never again". Then you have to clean it up for 3 days, buy new tires and start fixing stuff which are damaged (in and out of the car). Your profit will go out of the window (which doesn't work anymore).
If the 25k car is only RoboTaxi (not drivable by humans) it’s not going to have as much impact to Tesla’s earnings as fans are projecting. Understand that the RoboTaxi cost is not very material, only the price per mile. 0.50 per mile = $6250 per year for the average person in the US. Multiply that by a family of 5 then the cost per mile is more than the price of the car! Even if you share rides with family members on part of the ride it’s still going to be a big chunk of the cars price, every year! (Based on an average of 12,500 miles per year traveled.
If the car is drivable (and has FSD) then it could be sold to the individual family and used within that family. This would reduce its cost per year, if taken over a number of years. The longer it’s owned the lower it’s cost per mile.
Elon said, pre-covid inflation, that Tesla could operate a robotaxi business, all costs included, for less than $0.18/mile. Ramp that up to $0.25/mile post our recent round of high inflation. A 100% markup would bring the rate to your $0.50/mile. Lots of people would pay half a buck per mile just to avoid maintenance, registration, insurance, cleaning, and parking hassles.
Charge a 50% markup and it wouldn't make economic sense to own a car.
So this is how the stock may tank on 10/10 as it usually does after interesting events. Elon will insist on focusing on the robotaxi (and maybe Optimus just for fun), and it will still be too soon to put that into a spreadsheet just based on any kind of demo.
I like tesla for their cars today, but your theory is 'stupid'. Tesla is promising FSD since 2012, but they don't deliver (I'm very sorry for the people who spend a lot of money, believing Elon that it will be there next year). FSD will take much more time (as Tesla has shown), so profit on FSD is still very far away.
On the other hand other (Chinese and European) manufacturers are now producing compelling cars under €25k. It seems to me that Tesla is going to be missing out on this big market for affordable EV's (under 25k). I think the stock-price of Tesla will prove my point in the coming months. Let's see who's right!
So, if Lars is correct, the $25000 car is just smoke and mirrors, meaning that Tesla does not have the technology now, nor have they really figured out how to make a profitable small ev for the masses. We have been hearing a lot of talk about this upcoming vehicle for several years, and if it is not unveiled next week, then we know that is what it is, just talk!
The $25k car is based on the unboxed process. Musk wants to go straight to the autonomous car and not bother with the $25k car. The other senior management is advising they should do both, that is build the car with steering wheel and pedals and without. There is a lot of pressure for Tesla to add a cheaper car. So to meet that demand, Tesla is choosing a hybrid approach. In the first instance build it using existing machines and processes rather than jumping straight into a whole new production line and robots and process.
So, if you are expecting a $25k Tesla in 2025, you will be disappointed. You may even be right that it is smoke and mirrors. It all depends on what direction Tesla is going to take and whether they prioritise making cars, or autonomy. Hopefully we find out in a few days time.
Sure will be glad when he releases the 25,000 car for the masses. How many years and years and years have you been waiting while he sells expensive cars to richer people?
Seems to me I remember the master plan was to get as many electric cars into as many people's driveways as quickly as possible. I guess that was all a lie, huh . 🤔🇺🇸
BestinTesla - as ELON said , the initial RT/$25k vehicle will be made by partial unbox process, & later Vehicle(s) will use TOTAL unbox process, once they figure it out.
Sorry Lars. I usually agree with you, but not this time. For anyone to actually purchase AND utilize Tesla's FSD, the cost of hardware and software modifications to their cars would be astronomical. Tesla has zero incentive to sell FSD, because it would decrease their own car sales and limit exclusivity. Tesla has a big enough challenge getting FSD approved in its own vehicles. Why on earth would Tesla willingly take on the regulatory nightmare for other OEMs??? Finally, the future of robotaxis would be polluted and degraded by others getting onto the game. Uber is already trying to convince Tesla to partner with them. 😅😂🤣 Like Tesla needs Uber.
Elon already advised other companies to license their FSD lol
Tesla can't build all the cars purchased every year. Other companies will sell cars. Why not let them license FSD from Tesla and let Tesla enjoy that sweet profit?
@5:25 The anal-ists are basing themselves on producing cars on a line, with people, not on producing _Un-boxed_ vehicles using *Optimus* robots.
And I hate to mention that they'll all have *FSD* computers potentially driving the vehicles, for a monthly fee, of course. (Between savings on fuel and maintenance, it's affordable.)
Well I certainly hope those Optimus robots get paid well so someone has the income to buy these cars …
Totally opposite from what Ford did way back last century by raising his factory workers income so that they could purchase what they made.
Hopefully it’s not your job these things replace.
The blind man hahahaha
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BYD sells their Seagull EVs for 10-12k, would hope Tesla can aim closer to the 15-20k range, rather 25k. That would be a true game changer.
If you want a crappy/cheap EV, buy BYD.
@@paintedpony2935
You might want to fact check yourself.
A Tesla EV that priced out below $30k, including the $7,500 federal subsidy, should be a massive seller. It would be a Camry-segment killer once people calculated in the fuel/maintenance savings.
If they could produce a low $30k EV with a decent range in the US and Europe Toyota would likely go bankrupt. Toyota is already losing it's non-Japan Asian market to Chinese EVs. They can't sell enough cars in Japan to service their enormous debt.
Not outside China. Two to three times that when exported.
"BYD Atto 3 ranged from 81% to 174% higher than in China. Dolphin prices ranged from 39% to 178% higher, and Seal prices from 30% to 136% higher."
Tesla Model 3SR in Germany $43,707 - BYD Seal $48139.
Reuters April 26, 2024.
Due to inflation the $25K car of 2018 now should sell for more than $30K . If they can make it for 2025 dollars they could sell it for $30K with a 50% margin.
Sadly, I don’t think there is a $25k car. Elon cancelled it. Elon is a home run hitter. He only goes for big challenges. All or nothing.
When did Elon cancel the unboxed EV?
@@bobwallace9753 earlier this year when he came back from Twitter and start firing people. The $25k car was allegedly cancelled. Hope it’s not true.
@@dhui777
Who did Elon fire? Didn't he reduce the size of the FSD team because they've moved from hand-coding to AI? Anything else? Did he get rid of people on the new product development team?
I've heard zero about canceling the $25k car. There's speculation that a sub-$35k EV for private sales might not happen. That Tesla may go straight to producing robotaxis, which has been Elon's desire for some time. People on the team pushed Elon into the idea of a $25k EV because they were robotaxi skeptical, at least in time to FSD completion.
Lars, why is no one saying anything about Xpeng's self driving software? they don't look like they are years away, they look close similar to Tesla. ua-cam.com/video/_orzIP-QQtw/v-deo.htmlsi=i1jJerMoX1SOhM19
Wow, I was much more confident until I watched this podcast. What you are saying is that Model 2 is at least 3 years off and you imagine FSD will add massively by next year. It is evident you don’t have FSD on your car. Because it will take much longer for FSD to add measurably to the bottom line. The problem with FSD is that while good it is far from where it needs to be to run a Robotaxi or even be worthwhile to me who has 2 Teslas. I refuse to pay because the utility isn’t great enough to make it worthwhile. Too many interventions. And while I hear zero interventions from other Tesla uberbulls I haven’t experienced them. Good enough isn’t good enough when it comes to FSD. It needs to be near perfect before it will take off. And you acting like it’s already there is delusional.
People who are running the latest version of FSD report few, often no, interventions. You may be reasoning from old data.
The take rate for FSD appears to be very low right now. As features like self-parking are added more people are likely to give it a try. And people who are driving the latest version tend to say they really don't want to drive a car that doesn't have it. It seems to be a ratchet effect, click up and don't slip back.
Remember, the $99/month for FSD is pure profit for Tesla. It's just turning on something already in the car.
And don't forget winter. Not every city is in California or Texas. Once the snow starts, cameras get covered; road is slippery; road lines/paint gets covered...
Certainly not an option in winter cities anytime soon. I have a Tesla and live in such a city, so talking from pure experience.
The UA-camrs paint a misleading picture of FSD
Tesla's "$25,000 Car"...
Or
Tesla's "$250,000 Car?"
I recalled they had said, they could make the Latter at Fremont! This Year!
Anyway, when is FSR coming out? (Full Self Racing) At least the "Auto 1/4 Mile?" 😲😆😂
Please, Lars, stop your horse yet. Today FSD is little more than unpractical gimmick - it won't make great impact outside US due to legal hurdles, esp. in Europe and esp. in case of collisions or accidents.
In the meantime an affordable Tesla actually means cheap Tesla with barren, cheap interior materials and insufficient range. And extremely low resale value due no swap battery feature.👈
Why? Because it is the cheapest way to produce car profitably. Even 100% robot-made Tesla car will have to accept price of battery package or raw material from external suppliers. Domination of the Chinese supply chains is absolute and there hardly anything that Elon can do about it.
On the other hand, it is some Chinese EVs that have killer feature: a battery swap👈!. Tesla lacks it. The EVs with with feature not only can rapidly change their batteries but also such EVs retain high resale value.
And there are some great news about it: CATL - the biggest EV battery producers from China - announced they invest in huge amount of swap battery stations (10'000 till 2030). So China bet on swap battery technology. This is great news for the whole EV industry and drivers across the world! In the latest swap station of Nio the battery can be swapped in 2min30sec.👏
EV without battery swap - like Tesla cars - is wrong direction.
Irgendwie erzählt er immer das selbe und immer die selben videos und musik. es nervt nur noch.
Whenever I hear about gross margin I ask how Tesla compares to Volkswagen. The reality is Tesla has a long way to go before their margins are anything but a marginal concern pun intended ❤
They’re currently operating at low margins to keep the factories running, continue to improve the product, and build the fleet to sell FSD too later.
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Tsla is a losing investment for years ruining a lot of investors all hype and useless bs about new products
Tesla model Y was the Best selling carmodel on planet Earth in year 2023 🎉🏆🥇
CYBERTRUCK = Best selling EV pick-up truck in USA 🇺🇲🎉🏆🥇
Tesla Energy will be bigger than Tesla Auto after year 2030
@@mikafiltenborg7572 so what it’s a losing investment for the last three years
@@mikafiltenborg7572 another piece of in the sky they place no value on energy so robots people in the investment and public despise EM thers is the answer for underperformance
@@mikafiltenborg7572what a load of rubbish, they’ve only sold around 2000 Cybertrucks, that’s nothing in the scheme of things. And all 2000 of them have been returned in a recall for manufacturing defects , how good is that 🤣
Model 2 & Robo Taxi; will be made in Austin initially. 1 half 2025
Model 2 & Robo Taxi; will be made in Austin initially. 1 half 2025