I take Peter's videos as conversations starters and then go to the comment section to get correctly informed. Honestly, one of the best comment sections around. Thank you Peter for starting the topic and everyone for your accurate knlowledge. Edit: I understand what you mean about not trusting comments, but seriously, Peter attracts serious people. This comment section is not your vanilla variety, far from it. Of course, there's always the wild comment here and there, but overall, very impressive.
@@wesholmes9012 Comment sections are a great place to look at various (generally uninformed) biases in society and find a middle ground. But I would never trust a word of what anyone says in a comment section.
Poland has far greater chance of leading Europe than Italy, for many reasons. There allready functions a "Northern Format" which is Scandinavian states, Baltic States and Poland. They discuss issues relating to EU and Ukraine, so they can push entire Union to their unified stance. Poland is also part of Weimar Triangle, which is France, Germany and Poland. Their leaders meet up every time before the EU makes an important decision, to work towards a compromise and have as unified stance on the EU forum as possible. From Jannuary Poland is also taking the presidency in the EU. Ruling party in Poland is also part of the rulling group in the EU. Peter says that outside of France and Germany only Italy could be the leader, but I as a European don't really see that. I think that despite being a bit smaller than Italy and Spain, Poland is better situated to project influence in the Union and creating coalitions, then them, thanks to more stable economy, internal affairs and the fact that Baltics and Scandinavians are on the same page, plus Germany and France are more willing to cooperate with Poland than Italy. It's also worth mentioning that Poland had the best relations with Trump during his first time in the office and despite now being ruled by a different party, he seems to remember that and the fact that Poland spends the greatest ammount of GDP out of any other NATO member. So even cooperation with America could be easier for Poland than for Italy.
The main issue Poland has is that they used to be allied against EU interest alongside Hungary. That alliance broke up due to disagreements over Ukraine and recent Polish election results. This have cost Poland a lot of political capital. It's possible that Poland can fix that by staying on the new course, but it does make things harder.
@@znail4675 Poland was never allied against EU interests, they were fighting against retarded policies of the German and French and they were right. The Hungarians went too far, that's correct, but when it comes to a lot of the issues like immigration, they are still together. Seems like the rest of the EU is simply switching to the Polish stance.
Good points. And, as an Italian, I would even welcome Poland's guidance, and many of my countrymen would too because these times require Poland's dynamism and pragmatism. But Poland remains a modest economy with modest extra-EU relations. Poland can't steer EU industrial policies without being a big part of the industrial complex itself, and it can't reach good international agreements without connecting to the other countries first.
As a British person, only Poland seems to see itself as a country going somewhere in the next 25 years. Also, Wroclaw is a lovely city. Visit the little computer games museum.
As a German, I'd like to just point out that it's not unlikely for us to get a two-party coalition. The CDU and SPD may well gain the majority of seats in the parliament with less 50% of the vote. Parties with less than 5% of the vote do not gain any seats unless they win at least three constitiuencies (the leftist party may do that). So with people growing more unhappy with the political establishment, thus moving to voting for small parties, the leftist party fracturing into two which both may well land below or around the 5% cut-off and the party of the dismissed minister of finanzen projected to fall short of this, there may only be four parties actually making the parliament and the two big center parties gaining a majority depending on how strong the greens perfrom.
If you want to stabilize Germany, the CDU has to move to the right and take the place of the AfD. The AfD only exists because Merkel made room when she moved the CDU to the center.
I would suspect, that the coming coalition (CDU, SPD, Greens) will continue with the current policies (= Wishful thinking, without necessary changes). So not much change to be expected - just a slow long downturn.
The CDU is unable to create anything new, German parties enter into coalitions with formations with extremely different programs, then give up their demands and implement a common program based on consensus. In such a situation, there is no chance for major changes and it has been like this for many years in Germany
It has become harder to immerse myself into Peter's intellect after his proclamation that "Biden will win in a landslide" in early June. That says a lot about any opinions he may have about other world issues no matter how right he may be on some of them. His explanation of why he was so wrong about the Biden prediction was unacceptable.
I like to hear his opinions, but I take them with a grain of salt, as I do with everybody else. He brings many good points to the table. But I do not believe in any internet prophets.
Me too. On geoeconomics I have high confidence in his analysis, but in US national politics I have low confidence. Mostly because of comparison to other sources. For example, the pop bomb in china is something I heard about a decade ago, so when he threw it out there a few years ago he and the other sources supported each other.
Poland may be the country that will take the lead in Europe today. I would like to think that The Netherlands will (my country) but we have a wobbly coalition including an extreme right party, to which the others kowtow. Poland with support from Finland, Sweden and the Baltic States may just have the strength to make a stand.
Yeah, my instinct was also that Scandinavian and the Baltic states will hopefully be able to get a bloc together to steer at least the efforts against Russia and Hungary. Other than that, I think that von der Leyden has built enough of a support base and managed to compromise enough with the different factions in Europe for Brussels to hold together for a bit longer. Assuming of course that we actually see some movement on the policies that the people actually care about.
As a Pole I can say that today it's too early. Poland is developing rapidly (soon it will have the 1st in Europe and 3rd in NATO largest army) but currently we don't have enough economic power and consequently - political power. However, in a few years if all the forecasts come true the situation will be different and probably then it will be possible to think about it
"Far Right"? What's that mean to you Europeans? To us non Leftist Americans; "Far Right" implies Authoritarianism....of course no one on the right promotes extremism of that sort, but the Left, they love them some Authoritarianism, just look at the Biden Administrations actions over the last four years, and Obama's before. Look at how Obamacare was legislated...closed chambers and no bipartisan collaboration... Democrats love the Extreme Left....
@@vicmontes7314 Far right would be facist/neo-nazi groups turned mainstream through some kind of whitewashing or of populous slide further to the extremes. In Swedish politics this is the 1990's skinhead nazis going around flag waving in the streets (like those black dressed swastika waving Americans you've been seeing in media lately), splitting into two fractions; NMR (the crazy, try-to-topple-the-government kinda guys) and Sweden Democrats (SD, trying to add that faci-spice to politics from within) who are now the third largest party in the nation, acting as a support-party to the current gov. In Italy it the old party of mr Mouse currently ruling.
@@charlesrb3898 Europe's Texas, including the dominance of fucked up religious extremists and conservatives that have shifted to the far-right and taken corruption to new heights even for a former Eastern Bloc country.
There allready functions a "Northern Format" which is Scandinavian states, Baltic States and Poland. They discuss issues relating to EU and Ukraine. Poland is also part of Wemar Triangle, which is France, Germany and Poland. Their leaders meet up every time before the EU makes an important decision, to work towards a compromise and have as unified stance on the EU forum as possible. From Jannuary Poland is also taking the presidency in the EU. Ruling party in Poland is also part of the rulling group in the EU. Peter says that outside of France and Germany only Italy could be the leader, but I as a European don't really see that. I think that despite being a bit smaller than Italy and Spain, Poland is better situated to project influence in the Union and creating coalitions, then them, thanks to more stable economy, internal affairs and the fact that Baltics and Scandinavians are on the same page, plus Germany and France are more willing to cooperate with Poland than Italy.
Extremists groups across the world and across the political spectrum are in favor because governments have failed to provided basic services and voters are looking for solutions - they don't care which side delivers. This could make for an interesting analysis.
Not if a dictator gets into power and only does things that promote his narrow interests and corruption. Then it's at the whim of the dictator whether basic services are delivered, and if the bureaucracy and businesses have collapsed or are in fear, they can't deliver services well.
It's laughable that these groups are called 'extremists', since the controlling groups have lurched so far left into madness, taking extremism and making it law and saying the old sensible centre are the "extremists." Dangerous times.
Fascinating when you clearly see the superficiality of Peters knowledge, because you are involved in the topic yourself. Using the wrong names of protagonists and factually wrong descriptions of circumstances shows a lack of detail in the analysis. How good can his conclusions be?
Yeah, I like to listen to Peter's analysis but after seeing him get stuff I'm familiar with completely wrong, and some of his predictions completely fall flat I've learned to take what he says about subjects I'm less familiar about with a healthy pinch of salt. I know he's very knowledgeable in certain fields but when he tries to be a jack of all trade and tries to talk with authority about things outside his expertise, I think it effects his overall credibility. Not to say 'stay in your lane', but know when your knowledge isn't that deep and speak accordingly.
Gell-Mann amnesia effect - when you realize that almost nobody knows anything beyond a narrow focus or experience, but extends their "smartness" to everything, while sounding confident and authoritative.
Poland,Finland, Sweden, and the Baltics know for sure they have a dog in this fight. and can cooperate. The rest of Europe is snoozing on the railroad tracks and ignoring the increasingly loud train whistles down the tracks. A replay of the 1930's?
Denmark is number 2 when it comes to support per GDP and number 4 when it comes to absolute value of military aid. Look up Ukraine Support Tracker by Kiel Institute. Why are you ruling Danes out, but including Poles?
The EU needs to avoid letting the US (and I am an American) decide their future. Ukraine is saving the EU from Russian aggression with its blood, and the EU should strongly support that effort regardless of what President Trump wants to do. European open borders policy needs to stop, at least temporarily, so its countries can determine how to deal with the flood of migrants they have so far. China's economic aggression should be met with measures to protect EU jobs, and some backbone would be respected by the US as well. Just my view from the outside, hoping for the best for Europe.
Sounds great, but how? It's hard to imagine a more dysfunctional leadership structure than Europe's. I think they should abandon proportional representation because it clearly produces unstable governments way too often.
@@patkelley4071 You forgot one important thing: if it weren't for the comprehensive assistance of the US and the entire West, Ukraine would cease to exist as early as 2022.
Another German here, and like others in the comment section, I’m astonished by Peter’s lack of knowledge about what’s going on in Germany. I remember how impressed I was by him and his books, but hearing his take on a topic where I know what he’s saying is ridiculous makes me question everything I’ve heard from him before. What else was also distorted or colored by his or someone else's ideology and strong opinions? That “crazy, radical, and nasty” party he’s referring to is now the second most voted-for party in the country. I can give you a short list of their program, and you can decide for yourself whether what he says rings true or if it’s just an uninformed opinion shaped by state media trying to protect the current system and government, so the opposition won’t win in a landslide: - Return to nuclear energy to save the deteriorating economy - New measures to address the catastrophic crisis of illegal immigration - Smaller government (as seen in Argentina and proposed by Trump, Musk, and Vivek in the US) - No civil servant status for parliamentarians - Policies to address the catastrophic birthrate and promote larger families - Better family policies in general - more focus on the elderly and their retirement welfare - Diplomatic efforts to end the war and stop billions being spent on weapons to kill people - Tougher (youth) criminal laws (the situation here has gotten out of hand in recent years) - Cash as a constitutionally protected means of payment - Opposition to mandatory vaccinations during the pandemic - Referendums to promote democracy instead of restricting freedom of speech and opinion ...enough for now?
I see at least one completely crazy propsition - It is about impoving wellfare of animals. While cruelty for it cruelty should be banned, anything else is very much depends on POV. Just few days ago, i saw documentary about German law that prevent crashing male chicks. As result of such wellfare, millions of checks sent to Poland to be grow in even worse conditions for dog feed? In general, most of most vicious murderes of modernity were too much protective for animals....
As a German I like to say this is by far the most uninformed Peter Video. He seems to know nothing abt the „5% Hürde“ which eliminates all parties below 5%. Thus the rest don’t meet 50% but rather 40-45% CDU is at 32% so they could either choose the greens or the spd (easy)
And in that case, the CDU would obviously pick the SPD as a coalition partner, the neoliberal shit show with a spine made out of cotton candy, the guys who'll fall over as soon as there's even the slightest resistance from the conservatives.
Exactly. Funny enough, Peter is of the same tribe who opened the gates of Toledo to Islamic colonizers. "Anyone who resists their genocide is a Nazi" - P.Z
For gifts ? I know the videos are great, but the ‘End of the Word’ book is the most compelling packaging of Peter’s perspective. It’s on Audible, too, read by the author himself.
@@markdouglas8073 From Europe: I could not care one bit about "Mark Douglas" assessment of my comment. But maybe just maybe "Mark Douglas" proper name is Марик?
You certainly have the monopoly stash of ye-old-oaken-Yule-logs!!!! I think you and your loved ones will be warm and cozy this holiday season. Thanks again, Peter Z….Good Tidings and God Bless!!!!!❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤
Is it ignorant to finally get tired of pouring out blood and treasure to defend people who do nothing but sneer at you? I'm one of the shrinking minority of Americans who still think that containing Russia is worth doing, and asshoes like you make me wonder if Europe is worth a single drop of American blood, anymore.
“Hoot” meaning, in this instance at best, that feeling when you tip way back in a chair and almost fall over before catching yourself at the last second.
_'Trump's foreign policy is based on who flattered him most recently, which is what Putin figured out.'_ Which is why Trump started sending lethal aid to Ukraine in 2017, unlike the Obama admin and most of Nato that sent non-lethal aid, and the sanctions Trump imposed on Nord Stream 2 that ceased construction. Because of the flattery. Peter spit ballin' here. Notice that on geography and demography he substantiates with facts and figures, but on politics it's wishy washy. He ought to stick to where his competence is.
He's a goof and who cares about Europe over here honestly. We're an ocean away and it's their mess. Propping up globalism has made other countries hate us. We should step back like the police did in liberal cities and watch them cry for our help when they realize it's gone. US taxpayers shouldn't have to foot the bill for globalism in perpetuity.
The Italian city states of the Renaissance hat a large cultural and economic impart in Europe but no real political power. They were often embroiled in small scale conflicts within in Italy. The most influential players of the time were the Kingdoms on France, Spain and England and sometimes the Pope.
9:10 I’m not trying to be glib but what does that even mean? The people of France and Germany are unhappy their leaders, at the time, complained about the war in Iraq? What is some evidence to back up that statement? I legit had never met a reasonable European who was like “America invading Iraq was actually good and I wish my country joined in”.
Another German here, totally agree. I couldn't name a single person who would like us to have taken part retrospectively. Not only SPD supporters but Conservatives (and any other group) just as much. To this very day I keep hearing people say about Schröder: "I didn't like him but at least he kept us out of Iraq!"
As the polls stand right now in Germany, a 2 party coalition has a majority. CDU/Greens, CDU/SPD & CDU/afd (which is not gonna happen - this time). The libertarians are out.
Yeah, unless the German pollsters are as infamously inaccurate as the American pollsters are. I'm not German, so I don't know how good they are or not.
@@ScottMarquardt-s7u It is surely the less likely option but I would not rule this out entirely. Firstly there have been CDU/Green coalitions on a state-level already and they work and secondly I think that CDU and Greens are much closer politically today than both would like to admit.
The internet has amplified xenophobia, misinformation, and radicalization among people. This has significantly influenced the nature of democracy, which, by definition, reflects the will of the majority. Politicians, therefore, face a difficult choice: either stand firm on their principles and risk losing elections or align with the popular sentiment to maintain power, allowing them to mitigate potential harm from within the system. While I personally value human rights and support immigration, I am not willing to compromise my quality of life for these ideals. If the majority in Europe demands closed borders, perhaps complying with their wishes could undercut the appeal of radical parties and stabilize the political landscape.
The Internet has allowed voices other than the Establishment-approved media to be heard. If politicians cannot answer criticism of their policies without calling their critics Fascists, they're doing it wrong. The Soviet Union had tightly-controlled media which spouted the party line. How'd that work out for them?
What usually happens to third-parties in the US is that one of the major parties will address the new party's issues and steal their thunder. That didn't happen with immigration, in the US, which is how we got Trump.When the "respectable" politicians refuse to deal with a problem, voters look outside the establishment. The American Establishment has NO ONE to blame but themselves, for the rise of Donald Trump.
@@hippyjason Social democrats and socialists are as ideologically removed from each other as traditional Republicans and fascists. MAGA Republicans, however, are another story.
I can tell you the people didn't regret at all in France when Chirac refused to follow the US in the Iraq war. Instead, it's still the last foreign policy decision most French people agree on today and are proud of.
Many Americans feel the Democratic Party has been veering leftward for decades- In July of this year Democratic Vice President candidate Tim Waltz said "one person's socialism is another person's neighborliness."
Yes but no. Sozialism is definied quite well. The "problem" is that for 50 years america had an enemy in the UdSSR and their socialsm, which turned into the horror Story for americans. So anytime someone calls for things not conservativ, Business Business the old enemy is pulled out of the closet. You can hate it that is fine but left policy is a little more complex than solialism as it is also a spectrum. So the SPD is not socialist, i would call them a hot mess for the last couple of years to be honest. Same with the democrates. But that is the problem with a two party system. People are in these two Camps and those differ wildly. There are democrates who are socialist no questions asked. But there are also greens, Labour, centrist, human right and what not. Like republicans aren't all far right, gun loving, xenophobic, Gas drinking, trump worshipping lunatics. Excuse my weird spelling and grammar, english isn't my first language and the autocorrect isn't Set to english either.
I think the 100 million people that died under Russian socialism has every fuckin right to be a horror story that gets pulled out of the closet when the leadership of the American Democratic Party openly spouts hardcore socialist ideals. I say in the same way racism gets openly admonished by everyone in political leadership, most leftist ideology needs the same instinctive reaction.
The US Democratic party is socialist and on the fascist side of the socialist spectrum. They seek to divide everyone into groups, or fasci in the Italian, "and seeks to regulate every economic and social interaction with a puritanical fervor not seen since Oliver Cromwell". That is why they were voted out.
America's governing philosophy makes it so mandates are extremely rare, whereas French governing philosophy relies on them. It will be extremely interesting watching the two and how they behave for the foreseeable future.
Europe is not going to "descent into dystopia". Most European countries are accustomed to Governments not making it the full term. Italy e.g. had over 40 different governments since WWII. We will sort this out. In the medium term Trump will be a much more serious problem as he is mentally incapable of dealing with the global challenges that are waiting for him.
@hermes7587 In Europe, you can be arrested for an offensive social media post, so to most Americans, Europe is already dystopia. If you're European, then you're probably too conditioned to recognize it. Trump wasn't elected to deal with the worlds challenges. He'll do great for the US. If he slows the insanity of the left globally, then he'll be fantastic for the rest of the world, too.
One thing I don't understand is one of his final statements about the war on Irak. Germany and France opposed to it because unlike the American public they saw through the lies of "weapons of mass destruction". Saying this was just Putin propaganda is just rewriting history, even the proud USA citizens like Zeihan have to admit that as he usually states, that was only a "shit show" of a nonsensical war. With that said it was morally right to oppose it as > 300 000 citizens in the streets of Germany and France did openly for weeks. So no, this was not something that only the propaganda heads of states of Putin opposed to. (even if he is fully right on Scholz becoming a Gasprom puppet later)
I think Peter has a massive blind spot with Trump consistently and repeatedly underestimating him. Surface level flattery may help on the margins but won't IMO change deeply held convictions about America first policy.
What was America first about supplying Ukraine with weapons his first term, which nominally led to the second Russian invasion? What’s America first about the astonishing financial and military support of Israel? What are you people talking about? We saw how Trump governed the first time. We see who he has nominated to lead this time. For all of Peter’s blind spots and bad predictions, which he has many, this isn’t one of them.
Peter is Globalist to his core. Globalists see Trump as the Antichrist. When they bring out DSM-6, they ought to add Trump Derangement Syndrome to the list of mental disorders.
Regarding Iraq war, didn’t Collin Powell admitted it was all based on lies (he claims he wasn’t aware they were lies), and it was his greatest mistake and regret?
I am always astonished by Peter Zeihans US-centric approach of world affairs. He is right about problems we have in Europe. If one knows about the history of the EU that it started as a peace project after WW2 and has evolved into the EU as we know it today it has been a tremendous success. Each time there is a crisis it evolves further. The demise of the EU has been predicted numerous times and each time it has proven to be much more resilient as the US analists thought. However I would expect from Peter Zeihan a more balanced approach. Talking about a leadership crisis. The US might slide into an autocracy if Trump does everything he promised. I would expect that Zeihan would concentrate on that.....
Peter has a revenue base he depends upon, government relationships he depends upon, and a personal 'atlanticist' bias, and possibly could be considered center-left in personal intuition. If you know these things you can read through his biases, dismiss them, and rely on the quality of information he provides which is both deep, insightful, and articulate. Dont' expect others to perfectly agree with you. Only look for the non-false information and insight that they provide regardless of the bias they deliver it from.
😂😂😂😂😂it was never a peace thing. Democracies don’t go to war with each other. It was an economic thing. Basically like a free trade agreement that devolved into an anti democratic oligarchy with unelected bureaucrats running Europe
Under the US constitution, it is impossible for the US federal government to become an autocracy. So please define what you mean by "autocracy." Powers are all divided up between the president, congress and the judiciary. Under the Democrats that has become weaponized against people they don't like, including ordinary citizens, in order to force their radical agenda. This is part of the reason they were thrown from power so decisively in this last election. By the way, I am not an American nor am I a Republican or political. But ridiculous is ridiculous.
Still there and it solves the problem he mentiont. The CDU will just make a coalition with the SPD and we will have a strong leader but that wouldn‘t fit his narrativ
Yes. Watch the video, he explains that there is no ability to make decisions beyond momentum in those two nations; Contrasted with the US, which soon will not be in gridlock. Whether that’s good or bad remains to be seen.
Yeah, cause the CSU definitely has to ignore the second largest party that can get them to 50 percent with just two parties. That "third" Peter talks about has one party polling at 18 percent or over half of the "third".
With respect to Ukraine, the Brits are not on the outside anymore than the U.S. is and the attitudes towards Russia/Ukraine amongst the European _population_ are very different that those in the U.S. They aren't nearly as isolationist and ALL of the governing parties know it.
You're the higher testosterone +30 years senior of Harry Sisson aren't you? I cannot wait until Harry weighs in on geopolitics in a decade or two. It'll be funny.
Greetings from the US! I freely confess my ignorance about Denmark and its government, but I would point out that we in the US don't have the craziest government members on Earth; we're just the only ones with a Constitutionally-guaranteed right to free speech, which means we're the only country on Earth that truly airs our government's dirty laundry on TV and on the internet. Every government has corruption and drama. But that, as we say over here, is my two cents, and your mileage may vary. Merry Christmas!
Unfortunately, true. We are in the middle of a generational realignment that will most likely still take several years to work out. Many analysts believe it's a cycle that baked into the American system with the last cycle being in the 70's leading up to the Reagan revolution. Before that, it was in the 30's, leading up to the FDR realignment. As an American, I really hope Denmark, or Poland, or Germany, or France, or some combination, can step into the gap while we get our sh*t together.
We have one party that can accomplish policies; the problem is that they are incapable of marketing their successes, so then the insane theatrics party gets into power and undoes it all, creating huge deficits and doing crazy shit like invade Iraq or tell us COVID isn't real. 25 years and counting of shooting ourselves in the foot, and everyone in the world suffers
Europe?! What is that? Bunch of ties and no balls to do anything. Just being woke and try to stay rich which is an inheritance of a few 100 years ago. But the fighters moved to north America. Europe just left with a bunch of loosers. Afraid for wars. Afraid of defending themselves. Ukraine will fight, we just deliver the weapons... what a joke... but this is what really is going on. Trump is a scary man and will take control
I don't know man with Trump's 1st term verbal NATO threats he coerced many countries to dramatically increase their defense spending which later helped them support Ukraine
Zeihan is American... so there's a predictable flag waving about how great they are, and everyone else is basically in the shitter without them. That said... much of what he says has truth.
Regarding Italian leadership in Europe, don't forget about the papal power. Popes might not have been ruling directly, but they were the ultimate authority for centuries.
1. Germany is Reforming 2. France is Recalibrating 3. Poland is Growing 4. Italy is Balancing 5. Orban is Out 6. Putin is Done 7. Ukraine is Saved 8. UK is a Bad Example 9. Scandinavians Rock 10. EU is Managing Well Europe will be Fine 👍🏼
the SPD are social democrats, not socialists. The FDP origniates post war from DNP( Von Papen and oligarchs) and was always the home of big money and not cleansed out Nazizs ( Dr. Best , last Reichsgovernor of Danmark ). Otherwise recommending starting with Benjamin : Politicisation of Aesthetics of Faschism.
such as? the same reforms that germany needed since the early 90s? or those from the 80s? or 70s… nothing is gonna happen, and certainly not with urgency.
@@whigparty6180 The FDP is pretty unlikely to be a part of the next Bundestag. Even if they were, their 5% are not nearly enough for a two party coalition.
The election results for the Greens are bound to be kneecapped compared to where they should be, as a result of an essentially 3 years long propaganda campaign from conservative media and politicians, aided by Russian propaganda assets.
It's kinda funny how Europe is supposedly this economically irrelevant, perpetually declining, leaderless, weak, and disarmed continent, and yet, simultaneously, we are *somehow* capable of *forcing* America, the world's hegemon and #1 military power, to pay for our defense lmao. Seriously though, if we are such annoying and useless freeloaders, why don't they just cut us loose and leave? It's not like Americans like us very much, so what possible reason could they have for sticking around?
Europe needs the AveStDev method of committee decision making. In deciding a new prime minister have each member rank all the other members and then take the average rank plus the standard deviation to get a new rank list whomever has the smallest number gets to be prime minister. This method can be used for bills and budgets as well. The average rank tell us how important something is on average and the standard deviation tells us how controversial it is. By adding the two together you push the low rank and controversial items down the list while the high rank noncontroversial items move up the list. It provides consensus amongst members of a group.
Why would a hotel owned by a probably elected President-in-waiting on another continent help Europeans with leadership, which by definition is an ability to lead themselves?
In the US I've been saying for 10 years that politics will be broken until we Boomers age out of the system. But many younger people tell me their generation is worse.
The boomers have done a lot of damage and i'm alongside the people complaining about them...and then i look at the younger generations and i'm equally as appalled. The US is screwed either way.
Yeah, unfortunately we (me being an older Millenial who really thought Gen-Z would save this wretched country) underestimated the popularity and influence of Andrew Tate, Joe Rogan, Jordan Peterson, etc.
@@CP3oh322 if you believe the country is wretched, first you need a history lesson an second there are a couple hundred other countries you can move to.
I'm Gen-X. I don't see how and your comment is bereft of substance. The claim is as nourishing as a chicken nugget. In what ways have the boomers 'broken' politics?
Europe never had a leader before. _The closest things are the three leaders during WWII. French & German vacuums are not a 'European vacuum' You have a *very* American perspective. But something that never existed cannot leave a vacuum. The French president has full say ver foregn policy, so Macron does not have an internal mandate for much, but he does have one for external affairs,
That’s wrong. France and Germany were the drivers of european integration to a significant extent. Jean Monet, Adenauer, Schuman ring any bells ? If not time to read some history
Which explains why whenever shit goes sideways folks won't be looking to any European Capitals, for a solution they look to the US. Major war in the Mid East? The answer ain't in London. Pirates off the Coast of Africa? No answer coming from Paris. Russia marching into eastern Europe? Don't look to Berlin. Given who my countrymen just elected, it's utterly insane how much of y'all's security has still been outsourced to the US.
Europe has a leadership problem since ww2. Anyway, because i'm from eastern europe, i see the lack of western europe leadership combined with the pressure of russian imperialism as a good thing for us. Why? Because maybe, just maybe we'll finally figure out that it's waaay better for us to stop looking to the west, or the east for answers and leadership and start taking stuff into our own hands by binding together. From the Nordics and Poland, to Romania, Bulgaria and possibly even Turkey...one economic and especially military alliance. For those who don't agree...what use is there for us in the current status quo? which is the same for centuries....when push comes to shove...we're nothing more than a playground for the west-east power games.
@@davidcoverdale722 ok, not going to contest that. I would ask how that helped eastern europe, but we were having a soviet infection at that time. Not since ww2, but at least since the 90's.
@@dagda101 Spain Italy Portugal... Together we prevail. we ALL are in this together Peter underestimate Europe because his American Bias he believes we are sitting on our hands waiting doing nothing
@@nachocano9990except, you are. You simply adopt American policy and go farther with it. Europe has been America’s vassal for a very long time. Imagine thinking you have separate ideas from Americans when you adopt all the dumb cultural trends and push them farther.
@@boblately5402 Well, mostly, American Ideas are not that bad, why not follow it? Are you in Putin´s camp, that you want an "independent" Europe, that just is anti-democratic and anti-liberalism and pro-russian and pro-chinese? No, thanks. That is not "separate ideas" i would like to have!
I take Peter's videos as conversations starters and then go to the comment section to get correctly informed. Honestly, one of the best comment sections around. Thank you Peter for starting the topic and everyone for your accurate knlowledge.
Edit: I understand what you mean about not trusting comments, but seriously, Peter attracts serious people. This comment section is not your vanilla variety, far from it. Of course, there's always the wild comment here and there, but overall, very impressive.
Wouldn’t be so quick to believe a comment section either bud.
Precisely my thoughts when this video began - he raises interesting topics, but the details should be vetted.
His bias shows threw constantly.
@@wesholmes9012 Comment sections are a great place to look at various (generally uninformed) biases in society and find a middle ground. But I would never trust a word of what anyone says in a comment section.
Why would you take the comment section as "correct information" 😂
Poland has far greater chance of leading Europe than Italy, for many reasons.
There allready functions a "Northern Format" which is Scandinavian states, Baltic States and Poland. They discuss issues relating to EU and Ukraine, so they can push entire Union to their unified stance.
Poland is also part of Weimar Triangle, which is France, Germany and Poland. Their leaders meet up every time before the EU makes an important decision, to work towards a compromise and have as unified stance on the EU forum as possible.
From Jannuary Poland is also taking the presidency in the EU.
Ruling party in Poland is also part of the rulling group in the EU.
Peter says that outside of France and Germany only Italy could be the leader, but I as a European don't really see that. I think that despite being a bit smaller than Italy and Spain, Poland is better situated to project influence in the Union and creating coalitions, then them, thanks to more stable economy, internal affairs and the fact that Baltics and Scandinavians are on the same page, plus Germany and France are more willing to cooperate with Poland than Italy. It's also worth mentioning that Poland had the best relations with Trump during his first time in the office and despite now being ruled by a different party, he seems to remember that and the fact that Poland spends the greatest ammount of GDP out of any other NATO member. So even cooperation with America could be easier for Poland than for Italy.
The main issue Poland has is that they used to be allied against EU interest alongside Hungary.
That alliance broke up due to disagreements over Ukraine and recent Polish election results.
This have cost Poland a lot of political capital. It's possible that Poland can fix that by staying on the new course, but it does make things harder.
Poland won’t lift a finger for Ukraine. Worst goddamned ally you could ask for
@@znail4675 Poland was never allied against EU interests, they were fighting against retarded policies of the German and French and they were right. The Hungarians went too far, that's correct, but when it comes to a lot of the issues like immigration, they are still together. Seems like the rest of the EU is simply switching to the Polish stance.
Good points. And, as an Italian, I would even welcome Poland's guidance, and many of my countrymen would too because these times require Poland's dynamism and pragmatism.
But Poland remains a modest economy with modest extra-EU relations. Poland can't steer EU industrial policies without being a big part of the industrial complex itself, and it can't reach good international agreements without connecting to the other countries first.
As a British person, only Poland seems to see itself as a country going somewhere in the next 25 years.
Also, Wroclaw is a lovely city. Visit the little computer games museum.
I was the weirdo on the walkway in New Plymouth in a superhero costume saying hi to you. You’re welcome.
🤣🤣🤣 please elaborate on the superhero costume! What hero? And more importantly why?
You did you find me here again though?
As a German, I'd like to just point out that it's not unlikely for us to get a two-party coalition. The CDU and SPD may well gain the majority of seats in the parliament with less 50% of the vote. Parties with less than 5% of the vote do not gain any seats unless they win at least three constitiuencies (the leftist party may do that). So with people growing more unhappy with the political establishment, thus moving to voting for small parties, the leftist party fracturing into two which both may well land below or around the 5% cut-off and the party of the dismissed minister of finanzen projected to fall short of this, there may only be four parties actually making the parliament and the two big center parties gaining a majority depending on how strong the greens perfrom.
If you want to stabilize Germany, the CDU has to move to the right and take the place of the AfD. The AfD only exists because Merkel made room when she moved the CDU to the center.
I would suspect, that the coming coalition (CDU, SPD, Greens) will continue with the current policies (= Wishful thinking, without necessary changes). So not much change to be expected - just a slow long downturn.
The CDU is unable to create anything new, German parties enter into coalitions with formations with extremely different programs, then give up their demands and implement a common program based on consensus. In such a situation, there is no chance for major changes and it has been like this for many years in Germany
The problem is eastern Germans are rednecks who still miss Stalin
I don't know if Germany is an example to follow their national languages 5 years away from being Arabic
It has become harder to immerse myself into Peter's intellect after his proclamation that "Biden will win in a landslide" in early June. That says a lot about any opinions he may have about other world issues no matter how right he may be on some of them. His explanation of why he was so wrong about the Biden prediction was unacceptable.
what was unacceptable about it ?
It’s almost like it was an election in a two party system. Hindsight is 20-20. See: Five-Thirty-Eight in 2016.
I like to hear his opinions, but I take them with a grain of salt, as I do with everybody else. He brings many good points to the table. But I do not believe in any internet prophets.
PZ wanted Biden to win because PZ wants forever wars to continue without end. War mongerss such as PZ fear that Trump will end the Ukraine/Russia war.
Me too. On geoeconomics I have high confidence in his analysis, but in US national politics I have low confidence. Mostly because of comparison to other sources. For example, the pop bomb in china is something I heard about a decade ago, so when he threw it out there a few years ago he and the other sources supported each other.
Poland may be the country that will take the lead in Europe today. I would like to think that The Netherlands will (my country) but we have a wobbly coalition including an extreme right party, to which the others kowtow. Poland with support from Finland, Sweden and the Baltic States may just have the strength to make a stand.
Yeah, my instinct was also that Scandinavian and the Baltic states will hopefully be able to get a bloc together to steer at least the efforts against Russia and Hungary.
Other than that, I think that von der Leyden has built enough of a support base and managed to compromise enough with the different factions in Europe for Brussels to hold together for a bit longer. Assuming of course that we actually see some movement on the policies that the people actually care about.
As a Pole I can say that today it's too early. Poland is developing rapidly (soon it will have the 1st in Europe and 3rd in NATO largest army) but currently we don't have enough economic power and consequently - political power. However, in a few years if all the forecasts come true the situation will be different and probably then it will be possible to think about it
Current Polish government is strongly tied to Germany. They don't have the ball's to break from that leash.
"Far Right"? What's that mean to you Europeans?
To us non Leftist Americans; "Far Right" implies Authoritarianism....of course no one on the right promotes extremism of that sort, but the Left, they love them some Authoritarianism, just look at the Biden Administrations actions over the last four years, and Obama's before.
Look at how Obamacare was legislated...closed chambers and no bipartisan collaboration... Democrats love the Extreme Left....
@@vicmontes7314 Far right would be facist/neo-nazi groups turned mainstream through some kind of whitewashing or of populous slide further to the extremes. In Swedish politics this is the 1990's skinhead nazis going around flag waving in the streets (like those black dressed swastika waving Americans you've been seeing in media lately), splitting into two fractions; NMR (the crazy, try-to-topple-the-government kinda guys) and Sweden Democrats (SD, trying to add that faci-spice to politics from within) who are now the third largest party in the nation, acting as a support-party to the current gov. In Italy it the old party of mr Mouse currently ruling.
Poles, Nordic and Baltic countries will HAVE to UNITE on this
YES🙏
@@AS-010o0 Poles??
@@charlesrb3898 Europe's Texas, including the dominance of fucked up religious extremists and conservatives that have shifted to the far-right and taken corruption to new heights even for a former Eastern Bloc country.
Donald Tusk just joined NB8 the other week, & more or less signed Poland up to the group, so I guess it might be considered NB9 now..🧐
There allready functions a "Northern Format" which is Scandinavian states, Baltic States and Poland. They discuss issues relating to EU and Ukraine.
Poland is also part of Wemar Triangle, which is France, Germany and Poland. Their leaders meet up every time before the EU makes an important decision, to work towards a compromise and have as unified stance on the EU forum as possible.
From Jannuary Poland is also taking the presidency in the EU.
Ruling party in Poland is also part of the rulling group in the EU.
Peter says that outside of France and Germany only Italy could be the leader, but I as a European don't really see that. I think that despite being a bit smaller than Italy and Spain, Poland is better situated to project influence in the Union and creating coalitions, then them, thanks to more stable economy, internal affairs and the fact that Baltics and Scandinavians are on the same page, plus Germany and France are more willing to cooperate with Poland than Italy.
Extremists groups across the world and across the political spectrum are in favor because governments have failed to provided basic services and voters are looking for solutions - they don't care which side delivers. This could make for an interesting analysis.
Not if a dictator gets into power and only does things that promote his narrow interests and corruption. Then it's at the whim of the dictator whether basic services are delivered, and if the bureaucracy and businesses have collapsed or are in fear, they can't deliver services well.
It's laughable that these groups are called 'extremists', since the controlling groups have lurched so far left into madness, taking extremism and making it law and saying the old sensible centre are the "extremists." Dangerous times.
@@sluggo206 Out of context: if you have a dictator, you don't have voters who can viably choose their leader.
@@jonlittle5032 The point is that if you vote for extremists, they can pull the democracy rug out from behind them, and then you have a dictator.
@@jonlittle5032 A dictator can start off as a democratically elected leader. Consider Venezuela.
I mean the confidence of his delivery is truely astounding. Im sure he nailed it this time.
When was the last time any government did what was best for its citizens?
A very good question
The EU has downgraded itself to a childish state.
Fascinating when you clearly see the superficiality of Peters knowledge, because you are involved in the topic yourself. Using the wrong names of protagonists and factually wrong descriptions of circumstances shows a lack of detail in the analysis. How good can his conclusions be?
Yeah, I like to listen to Peter's analysis but after seeing him get stuff I'm familiar with completely wrong, and some of his predictions completely fall flat I've learned to take what he says about subjects I'm less familiar about with a healthy pinch of salt. I know he's very knowledgeable in certain fields but when he tries to be a jack of all trade and tries to talk with authority about things outside his expertise, I think it effects his overall credibility. Not to say 'stay in your lane', but know when your knowledge isn't that deep and speak accordingly.
@ Very well said.
Gell-Mann amnesia effect - when you realize that almost nobody knows anything beyond a narrow focus or experience, but extends their "smartness" to everything, while sounding confident and authoritative.
Poland,Finland, Sweden, and the Baltics know for sure they have a dog in this fight. and can cooperate. The rest of Europe is snoozing on the railroad tracks and ignoring the increasingly loud train whistles down the tracks. A replay of the 1930's?
Denmark is number 2 when it comes to support per GDP and number 4 when it comes to absolute value of military aid. Look up Ukraine Support Tracker by Kiel Institute. Why are you ruling Danes out, but including Poles?
The EU needs to avoid letting the US (and I am an American) decide their future. Ukraine is saving the EU from Russian aggression with its blood, and the EU should strongly support that effort regardless of what President Trump wants to do. European open borders policy needs to stop, at least temporarily, so its countries can determine how to deal with the flood of migrants they have so far. China's economic aggression should be met with measures to protect EU jobs, and some backbone would be respected by the US as well. Just my view from the outside, hoping for the best for Europe.
Sounds great, but how? It's hard to imagine a more dysfunctional leadership structure than Europe's. I think they should abandon proportional representation because it clearly produces unstable governments way too often.
@@patkelley4071 You forgot one important thing: if it weren't for the comprehensive assistance of the US and the entire West, Ukraine would cease to exist as early as 2022.
@@adriannaszudrzynska9371 The EU has provided far more assistance to Ukraine than the US, and when they needed it the most.
@@jonlittle5032 A comparison of the value of US and European military aid can be found very easily
@@jonlittle5032 Doubt it, you can google data easy
Peter’s Firewoodside Chats
For this rambling disaster of “analysis”, he needs to be taken to the woodshed… 😁
Another German here, and like others in the comment section, I’m astonished by Peter’s lack of knowledge about what’s going on in Germany.
I remember how impressed I was by him and his books, but hearing his take on a topic where I know what he’s saying is ridiculous makes me question everything I’ve heard from him before. What else was also distorted or colored by his or someone else's ideology and strong opinions?
That “crazy, radical, and nasty” party he’s referring to is now the second most voted-for party in the country. I can give you a short list of their program, and you can decide for yourself whether what he says rings true or if it’s just an uninformed opinion shaped by state media trying to protect the current system and government, so the opposition won’t win in a landslide:
- Return to nuclear energy to save the deteriorating economy
- New measures to address the catastrophic crisis of illegal immigration
- Smaller government (as seen in Argentina and proposed by Trump, Musk, and Vivek in the US)
- No civil servant status for parliamentarians
- Policies to address the catastrophic birthrate and promote larger families
- Better family policies in general
- more focus on the elderly and their retirement welfare
- Diplomatic efforts to end the war and stop billions being spent on weapons to kill people
- Tougher (youth) criminal laws (the situation here has gotten out of hand in recent years)
- Cash as a constitutionally protected means of payment
- Opposition to mandatory vaccinations during the pandemic
- Referendums to promote democracy instead of restricting freedom of speech and opinion
...enough for now?
🤣🤣🤣 AFD is thr@sh...nice one, mate, but AFD are just Kremlin's bots 🤣🤣🤣just like you!
That seems like a very good alternative to what germany currently has.
the problem with peter is he thinks if your not on the left you must be a nazi.
It just like Peter said, the new NAZIs 😂😂😂
I see at least one completely crazy propsition - It is about impoving wellfare of animals. While cruelty for it cruelty should be banned, anything else is very much depends on POV. Just few days ago, i saw documentary about German law that prevent crashing male chicks. As result of such wellfare, millions of checks sent to Poland to be grow in even worse conditions for dog feed? In general, most of most vicious murderes of modernity were too much protective for animals....
As a German I like to say this is by far the most uninformed Peter Video. He seems to know nothing abt the „5% Hürde“ which eliminates all parties below 5%. Thus the rest don’t meet 50% but rather 40-45%
CDU is at 32% so they could either choose the greens or the spd (easy)
Oh I don't know, the one on British agriculture was pretty delusional.
Peter's wrong about a lot of things look at how wrong he was when he came to American politics and voting this last cycle
CIA, deep state shill and yes, often wrong, uninformed or outright destructive (promoting mass migration to white countries).
Du der schafft die Muttersprache nicht, hör mal um 02:00 wie er “disparate” spricht es ist schlicht unkorrekt
And in that case, the CDU would obviously pick the SPD as a coalition partner, the neoliberal shit show with a spine made out of cotton candy, the guys who'll fall over as soon as there's even the slightest resistance from the conservatives.
Videos get more and more entertaining. Not that I would mind!
PeterZs definition of "Extremism" is when you oppose a caliphate or if you oppose an invasion of your home country.
Exactly
His problem is he still believes the news is real news
Okay that's reasonless accusations, he is nothing but supportive to that foiled corroption state gobbling up funds.
Exactly. Funny enough, Peter is of the same tribe who opened the gates of Toledo to Islamic colonizers. "Anyone who resists their genocide is a Nazi" - P.Z
@@theredscourge let me guess your real news is qanon nonsense
Should be fun for Europe this decade.
As usual Peter Zeihan avoids talking about immigration like it is the plague.
Immigration IS a plague. Just sayin'.
For gifts ? I know the videos are great, but the ‘End of the Word’ book is the most compelling packaging of Peter’s perspective.
It’s on Audible, too, read by the author himself.
From PL:
This was a "potatoe salad" of macro-anecdotes and facts, not a clear assessment of Europe's leadership in 2025.
Dan Quayle, it’s you!
@@markdouglas8073 From Europe: I could not care one bit about "Mark Douglas" assessment of my comment.
But maybe just maybe "Mark Douglas" proper name is Марик?
You certainly have the monopoly stash of ye-old-oaken-Yule-logs!!!! I think you and your loved ones will be warm and cozy this holiday season. Thanks again, Peter Z….Good Tidings and God Bless!!!!!❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤
An ignorant citizenry elect ignorant leaders.
George Carlin
Unfortunately tRump, is trouble.
We will survive, not going to be good.
yea, americans know that to well....
@@PorkusMaximii 'to' or 'too'?
Is it ignorant to finally get tired of pouring out blood and treasure to defend people who do nothing but sneer at you? I'm one of the shrinking minority of Americans who still think that containing Russia is worth doing, and asshoes like you make me wonder if Europe is worth a single drop of American blood, anymore.
that would explain Biden
“Hoot” meaning, in this instance at best, that feeling when you tip way back in a chair and almost fall over before catching yourself at the last second.
_'Trump's foreign policy is based on who flattered him most recently, which is what Putin figured out.'_
Which is why Trump started sending lethal aid to Ukraine in 2017, unlike the Obama admin and most of Nato that sent non-lethal aid, and the sanctions Trump imposed on Nord Stream 2 that ceased construction.
Because of the flattery.
Peter spit ballin' here. Notice that on geography and demography he substantiates with facts and figures, but on politics it's wishy washy. He ought to stick to where his competence is.
Agreed. He just doesn’t know dick about politics apparently unless it’s around geopolitics
He's a goof and who cares about Europe over here honestly. We're an ocean away and it's their mess. Propping up globalism has made other countries hate us. We should step back like the police did in liberal cities and watch them cry for our help when they realize it's gone. US taxpayers shouldn't have to foot the bill for globalism in perpetuity.
Putin is scared of trump because he is unpredictable and he goes to war he will keep what he takes.
I think it's just words from his video sponsors.
Spot on! Very good rebuttal to Peter’s TDS!
Merry Christmas Peter ❤
The italian city states of the Renaissance were most certainly the leaders of Europe at that time, no need to go back to Constantine lol
Culturally and Economically yes, but politically no
@@apc9714 yes... Politically. Not sure anyone is this stupid
The Italian city states of the Renaissance hat a large cultural and economic impart in Europe but no real political power.
They were often embroiled in small scale conflicts within in Italy.
The most influential players of the time were the Kingdoms on France, Spain and England and sometimes the Pope.
Thanks Peter
I like how he says Mar-a-Lago like it's the US capitol now.
Actually it is "Maralargo"
Might as well. Do you see any real leadership from the current President in DC? Or rather, whatever oceanside retreat in Delaware?
@@jem77469 No, it's been four years of a lame duck. At least Biden can blame it on his age. Harris has no excuse 😂
Good! Better than that festering , bloated corpse in DC.
MAGA-LAGO!!!! WHOOOOOO!
I don‘t agree with much you said recently, but this rundown of the european situation is nailing it.
9:10 I’m not trying to be glib but what does that even mean? The people of France and Germany are unhappy their leaders, at the time, complained about the war in Iraq? What is some evidence to back up that statement? I legit had never met a reasonable European who was like “America invading Iraq was actually good and I wish my country joined in”.
German here. As far as I can tell, everyone is glad we didn't go into Iraq back then.
@ that was Peter’s point, right? It’s so idiotic that I feel like I must be misunderstanding what he was trying to communicate
Another German here, totally agree. I couldn't name a single person who would like us to have taken part retrospectively. Not only SPD supporters but Conservatives (and any other group) just as much. To this very day I keep hearing people say about Schröder: "I didn't like him but at least he kept us out of Iraq!"
For the remainder of the year, wow…….unbelievable.
As the polls stand right now in Germany, a 2 party coalition has a majority. CDU/Greens, CDU/SPD & CDU/afd (which is not gonna happen - this time). The libertarians are out.
If CDU allies with the Greens I'm buying blankets- hell will have frozen over.
Yeah, unless the German pollsters are as infamously inaccurate as the American pollsters are. I'm not German, so I don't know how good they are or not.
@@ScottMarquardt-s7u It is surely the less likely option but I would not rule this out entirely. Firstly there have been CDU/Green coalitions on a state-level already and they work and secondly I think that CDU and Greens are much closer politically today than both would like to admit.
Fascinating!!!
The internet has amplified xenophobia, misinformation, and radicalization among people. This has significantly influenced the nature of democracy, which, by definition, reflects the will of the majority. Politicians, therefore, face a difficult choice: either stand firm on their principles and risk losing elections or align with the popular sentiment to maintain power, allowing them to mitigate potential harm from within the system. While I personally value human rights and support immigration, I am not willing to compromise my quality of life for these ideals. If the majority in Europe demands closed borders, perhaps complying with their wishes could undercut the appeal of radical parties and stabilize the political landscape.
The Internet has allowed voices other than the Establishment-approved media to be heard. If politicians cannot answer criticism of their policies without calling their critics Fascists, they're doing it wrong. The Soviet Union had tightly-controlled media which spouted the party line. How'd that work out for them?
Yeah, that's what Denmark did, and now they don't have the same crazy shift to the right
What usually happens to third-parties in the US is that one of the major parties will address the new party's issues and steal their thunder.
That didn't happen with immigration, in the US, which is how we got Trump.When the "respectable" politicians refuse to deal with a problem, voters look outside the establishment.
The American Establishment has NO ONE to blame but themselves, for the rise of Donald Trump.
It’s a wonderful woodpile… stay cozy by the fireplace, stove or whatever…
He forgot to mention that Merkel worked for Putin 24/7.
No he didn’t, he’s blind to so many things
Merkel didnt work for putin..but she definitely did not work for Germany.
Gerhard Schroeder might join Yanukovich and Assad, with Orban and Lukashenka eventually joining dinner table.
She sure did. Merkel was the architect of Germany's corruption and downfall.
Hi, Nice background of mountains!! 😊 ⛰
Friendly reminder that Peter is pro open borders. He also wears a tiny hat at times.
I don’t know people feel what a genius really are🤗
Ah Peter, SPD aren't ’socialists’, but social democrats.....huge difference.
No difference. If your name doesn't describe your platform, maybe you should change your name.
And yet, still near-commies all the same, no matter which name is used.
By American standards, socialist. Peter is American.
It's still com me-adjacent, no matter how you slice it, or try to camouflage it. It's still got the same stink on it.
_____
@@hippyjason Social democrats and socialists are as ideologically removed from each other as traditional Republicans and fascists. MAGA Republicans, however, are another story.
I can tell you the people didn't regret at all in France when Chirac refused to follow the US in the Iraq war. Instead, it's still the last foreign policy decision most French people agree on today and are proud of.
Why don't Americans grok the difference between Socialists and Social Democrats. The SPD is equivalent to your Democratic Party, NOT socialism, heck.
That IS the same thing 😂
Many Americans feel the Democratic Party has been veering leftward for decades- In July of this year Democratic Vice President candidate Tim Waltz said "one person's socialism is another person's neighborliness."
Yes but no. Sozialism is definied quite well. The "problem" is that for 50 years america had an enemy in the UdSSR and their socialsm, which turned into the horror Story for americans. So anytime someone calls for things not conservativ, Business Business the old enemy is pulled out of the closet. You can hate it that is fine but left policy is a little more complex than solialism as it is also a spectrum. So the SPD is not socialist, i would call them a hot mess for the last couple of years to be honest. Same with the democrates. But that is the problem with a two party system. People are in these two Camps and those differ wildly. There are democrates who are socialist no questions asked. But there are also greens, Labour, centrist, human right and what not. Like republicans aren't all far right, gun loving, xenophobic, Gas drinking, trump worshipping lunatics.
Excuse my weird spelling and grammar, english isn't my first language and the autocorrect isn't Set to english either.
I think the 100 million people that died under Russian socialism has every fuckin right to be a horror story that gets pulled out of the closet when the leadership of the American Democratic Party openly spouts hardcore socialist ideals. I say in the same way racism gets openly admonished by everyone in political leadership, most leftist ideology needs the same instinctive reaction.
The US Democratic party is socialist and on the fascist side of the socialist spectrum. They seek to divide everyone into groups, or fasci in the Italian, "and seeks to regulate every economic and social interaction with a puritanical fervor not seen since Oliver Cromwell". That is why they were voted out.
6:34 YAY!
America's governing philosophy makes it so mandates are extremely rare, whereas French governing philosophy relies on them. It will be extremely interesting watching the two and how they behave for the foreseeable future.
As usual, very informative; many thanks.
One detail... Jacques Chirac died in 2019... so, indeed, he will not be commenting on the current situation.
Hopefully, you're right, and Trump can slow Europe's descent into dystopia.
Europe is not going to "descent into dystopia". Most European countries are accustomed to Governments not making it the full term.
Italy e.g. had over 40 different governments since WWII. We will sort this out.
In the medium term Trump will be a much more serious problem as he is mentally incapable of dealing with the global challenges that are waiting for him.
@hermes7587 In Europe, you can be arrested for an offensive social media post, so to most Americans, Europe is already dystopia. If you're European, then you're probably too conditioned to recognize it.
Trump wasn't elected to deal with the worlds challenges. He'll do great for the US. If he slows the insanity of the left globally, then he'll be fantastic for the rest of the world, too.
@@hermes7587 he did great his first term, while Biden has lost Ukraine to Russia, among other screw ups
I love the CIA's explanation of what's going on.
love how its not longer "The White House" its now "Mar-A-Lago" cheeky subliminal, love it. Its now a family business.
He's not in the white house yet
'Mafia'..
4 years from now Trump and his supporters will be pushing Don Jr. for president once Trumps maxed out at 8 years then he can rule through his son.
Family business? Why do you describe it like a monarchy?
MAGA baby.
One thing I don't understand is one of his final statements about the war on Irak. Germany and France opposed to it because unlike the American public they saw through the lies of "weapons of mass destruction". Saying this was just Putin propaganda is just rewriting history, even the proud USA citizens like Zeihan have to admit that as he usually states, that was only a "shit show" of a nonsensical war. With that said it was morally right to oppose it as > 300 000 citizens in the streets of Germany and France did openly for weeks. So no, this was not something that only the propaganda heads of states of Putin opposed to. (even if he is fully right on Scholz becoming a Gasprom puppet later)
I have a geopolitical prediction. We're f-ed 😂
👍🏻👍🏻
The problem is ''the worst of all systems...''
I think Peter has a massive blind spot with Trump consistently and repeatedly underestimating him. Surface level flattery may help on the margins but won't IMO change deeply held convictions about America first policy.
What was America first about supplying Ukraine with weapons his first term, which nominally led to the second Russian invasion? What’s America first about the astonishing financial and military support of Israel? What are you people talking about? We saw how Trump governed the first time. We see who he has nominated to lead this time. For all of Peter’s blind spots and bad predictions, which he has many, this isn’t one of them.
A massive case of TDS since the beginning. Just swap the word "vile" for his "any-who" and you'll get his actual feelings on the matter.
Peter is Globalist to his core. Globalists see Trump as the Antichrist. When they bring out DSM-6, they ought to add Trump Derangement Syndrome to the list of mental disorders.
Regarding Iraq war, didn’t Collin Powell admitted it was all based on lies (he claims he wasn’t aware they were lies), and it was his greatest mistake and regret?
I am always astonished by Peter Zeihans US-centric approach of world affairs. He is right about problems we have in Europe. If one knows about the history of the EU that it started as a peace project after WW2 and has evolved into the EU as we know it today it has been a tremendous success. Each time there is a crisis it evolves further. The demise of the EU has been predicted numerous times and each time it has proven to be much more resilient as the US analists thought. However I would expect from Peter Zeihan a more balanced approach. Talking about a leadership crisis. The US might slide into an autocracy if Trump does everything he promised. I would expect that Zeihan would concentrate on that.....
Womp womp
Peter has a revenue base he depends upon, government relationships he depends upon, and a personal 'atlanticist' bias, and possibly could be considered center-left in personal intuition. If you know these things you can read through his biases, dismiss them, and rely on the quality of information he provides which is both deep, insightful, and articulate.
Dont' expect others to perfectly agree with you. Only look for the non-false information and insight that they provide regardless of the bias they deliver it from.
Those showing synptoms of Trump Derangement Syndrom often find that concentration on anything else isn't easy.
😂😂😂😂😂it was never a peace thing. Democracies don’t go to war with each other. It was an economic thing. Basically like a free trade agreement that devolved into an anti democratic oligarchy with unelected bureaucrats running Europe
Under the US constitution, it is impossible for the US federal government to become an autocracy. So please define what you mean by "autocracy."
Powers are all divided up between the president, congress and the judiciary. Under the Democrats that has become weaponized against people they don't like, including ordinary citizens, in order to force their radical agenda. This is part of the reason they were thrown from power so decisively in this last election. By the way, I am not an American nor am I a Republican or political. But ridiculous is ridiculous.
As a Yank engineer that doesn’t spend much time in this space, what happened to Germany’s 5% Hurde requirement?
Still there and it solves the problem he mentiont. The CDU will just make a coalition with the SPD and we will have a strong leader but that wouldn‘t fit his narrativ
Sounds like it’s time for Sweden! I’m joking of course xD
Sverige behöver energi och säkerhet. Republikanerna kommer ge mkt vapen till ukraine och förhandla. Fred genom styrka.
Charles XII has entered the chat.
"Can Mar-a-Lago Solve the Leadership Vacuum in Europe"
No.
Damn Peter, these used to be thought-provoking. What about the Leadership Vacuum here?
Unlike the US?
Yes. Watch the video, he explains that there is no ability to make decisions beyond momentum in those two nations; Contrasted with the US, which soon will not be in gridlock. Whether that’s good or bad remains to be seen.
@@cdevidal The world is not going to rotate around Trumps' America. Get used to that.
Yes I unlike the US
US will have a much stronger leadership under Trump, just like before.
@@michaeldowson6988 Didn't they say that the last time?
Yeah, cause the CSU definitely has to ignore the second largest party that can get them to 50 percent with just two parties. That "third" Peter talks about has one party polling at 18 percent or over half of the "third".
Constantine wasn't from Italy
He did project power from Italy before shifting focus to the East.
Roman Empire though.
Brilliant
oh boy i cant wait to see what peter is going to be wrong about leadership in this video lol
1:54 that sounds pretty good to me
With respect to Ukraine, the Brits are not on the outside anymore than the U.S. is and the attitudes towards Russia/Ukraine amongst the European _population_ are very different that those in the U.S.
They aren't nearly as isolationist and ALL of the governing parties know it.
America can afford to be isolationist because they have farmland and natural resources for the most part. But it's far from perfect.
You're the higher testosterone +30 years senior of Harry Sisson aren't you? I cannot wait until Harry weighs in on geopolitics in a decade or two. It'll be funny.
But at least the chaos is temporary around here(I'm from Denmark). US politics is a perpetual shitshow. 24/7 theatrics, but never a policy in sight.
Greetings from the US! I freely confess my ignorance about Denmark and its government, but I would point out that we in the US don't have the craziest government members on Earth; we're just the only ones with a Constitutionally-guaranteed right to free speech, which means we're the only country on Earth that truly airs our government's dirty laundry on TV and on the internet. Every government has corruption and drama. But that, as we say over here, is my two cents, and your mileage may vary.
Merry Christmas!
Unfortunately true.
Unfortunately, true. We are in the middle of a generational realignment that will most likely still take several years to work out. Many analysts believe it's a cycle that baked into the American system with the last cycle being in the 70's leading up to the Reagan revolution. Before that, it was in the 30's, leading up to the FDR realignment. As an American, I really hope Denmark, or Poland, or Germany, or France, or some combination, can step into the gap while we get our sh*t together.
We have one party that can accomplish policies; the problem is that they are incapable of marketing their successes, so then the insane theatrics party gets into power and undoes it all, creating huge deficits and doing crazy shit like invade Iraq or tell us COVID isn't real. 25 years and counting of shooting ourselves in the foot, and everyone in the world suffers
Wait till all those Muslims take over your country… oh wait
As if everything is hunky-dory in the US and Canada!? Good leadership is getting harder to come by.
The last thing Europe is going to do is kowtow to Trump
They already do 😂
Europe?! What is that? Bunch of ties and no balls to do anything. Just being woke and try to stay rich which is an inheritance of a few 100 years ago. But the fighters moved to north America. Europe just left with a bunch of loosers. Afraid for wars. Afraid of defending themselves. Ukraine will fight, we just deliver the weapons... what a joke... but this is what really is going on. Trump is a scary man and will take control
@@AS-010o0 How can they - he isn't in office yet
Isn't that what they said the first time he was elected, and then they kowtowed?
I don't know man with Trump's 1st term verbal NATO threats he coerced many countries to dramatically increase their defense spending which later helped them support Ukraine
So the political class are losing? What a shame.
The anti-Trump tropes are so very tiresome.
Trump is a very smart person.
Spot on and peter is a bit ignorant about what it is to negotiate. He likes bending over...
🍟😂
A lot of people his age claim to be moderates but you utter the words Joe Biden or Donald Trump around them and they go into a tantrum. What happened?
@@maximsmirnov2977 lol
Well, at least Russia has a unified government :0
Zeihan is American... so there's a predictable flag waving about how great they are, and everyone else is basically in the shitter without them. That said... much of what he says has truth.
Regarding Italian leadership in Europe, don't forget about the papal power. Popes might not have been ruling directly, but they were the ultimate authority for centuries.
Sould be a chance for Poland, but for number of reasons won't be.
And what are some of those reasons?
Sobieski smiles and leads in the winged hussars.
1. Germany is Reforming
2. France is Recalibrating
3. Poland is Growing
4. Italy is Balancing
5. Orban is Out
6. Putin is Done
7. Ukraine is Saved
8. UK is a Bad Example
9. Scandinavians Rock
10. EU is Managing Well
Europe will be Fine 👍🏼
Cmon Peter!
Europe has a calidiscope of crazy in their politics, and America doesn't? LMFAO!
the SPD are social democrats, not socialists. The FDP origniates post war from DNP( Von Papen and oligarchs) and was always the home of big money and not cleansed out Nazizs ( Dr. Best , last Reichsgovernor of Danmark ). Otherwise recommending starting with Benjamin : Politicisation of Aesthetics of Faschism.
2 Party majority is likely (CDU/SPD or CDU/Greens) in Germany. The big problem is, both spd and greens would prevent the urgently required reforms. 😢
CDU/CSU and FDP is likelier.
such as? the same reforms that germany needed since the early 90s? or those from the 80s? or 70s… nothing is gonna happen, and certainly not with urgency.
@@whigparty6180 The FDP is pretty unlikely to be a part of the next Bundestag. Even if they were, their 5% are not nearly enough for a two party coalition.
The election results for the Greens are bound to be kneecapped compared to where they should be, as a result of an essentially 3 years long propaganda campaign from conservative media and politicians, aided by Russian propaganda assets.
Glad your channel is growing, Peter 🎉
“Kaleidoscope of crazy” 😂
Easy to call Europeans freeloaders while hiking all day, I really admire your biased view of the world.
Ur mad 😂
Picado used cutting words.
Nobody is sure about its effectiveness
Finally someone notices and calls Peter out on this!
I like listening to Peters thoughts, but he's totally US biased and relatively clueless about Europe and European politics
It's kinda funny how Europe is supposedly this economically irrelevant, perpetually declining, leaderless, weak, and disarmed continent, and yet, simultaneously, we are *somehow* capable of *forcing* America, the world's hegemon and #1 military power, to pay for our defense lmao.
Seriously though, if we are such annoying and useless freeloaders, why don't they just cut us loose and leave? It's not like Americans like us very much, so what possible reason could they have for sticking around?
Europe needs the AveStDev method of committee decision making. In deciding a new prime minister have each member rank all the other members and then take the average rank plus the standard deviation to get a new rank list whomever has the smallest number gets to be prime minister. This method can be used for bills and budgets as well. The average rank tell us how important something is on average and the standard deviation tells us how controversial it is. By adding the two together you push the low rank and controversial items down the list while the high rank noncontroversial items move up the list. It provides consensus amongst members of a group.
What is Mar-A-LagRo?
Where Trump lives in Florida.
Trump's home base of operations when he's not actually at the Whitehouse.
Where countries obtain US classified information.
where Trump makes fat jokes to Kim Jong Un's fat face
Why would a hotel owned by a probably elected President-in-waiting on another continent help Europeans with leadership, which by definition is an ability to lead themselves?
Flowing through Mar-a-Lago?!? What happens when the analysis is contrary to what you want to believe...
💯
And here I thought we were going to the woodshed
The fact that you said Trump is the most powerful leader right now and he isn't even sworn in yet just speaks to how effective of a leader he is.
I actually told my journeyman everything about the fall of globalization one day. it blew his mind hahahaha
In the US I've been saying for 10 years that politics will be broken until we Boomers age out of the system. But many younger people tell me their generation is worse.
The boomers have done a lot of damage and i'm alongside the people complaining about them...and then i look at the younger generations and i'm equally as appalled. The US is screwed either way.
Yeah, unfortunately we (me being an older Millenial who really thought Gen-Z would save this wretched country) underestimated the popularity and influence of Andrew Tate, Joe Rogan, Jordan Peterson, etc.
@@CP3oh322 if you believe the country is wretched, first you need a history lesson an second there are a couple hundred other countries you can move to.
@@CP3oh322 Andrew Tate for sure sucks, but how exactly are Rogan and Peterson bad for today's young people?
I'm Gen-X. I don't see how and your comment is bereft of substance. The claim is as nourishing as a chicken nugget.
In what ways have the boomers 'broken' politics?
Just came in from the woodpile myself.
Man,you are using some really strong words there. You don't seem so credible...
Let's go with that Romanian elections video 😅
Europe never had a leader before. _The closest things are the three leaders during WWII. French & German vacuums are not a 'European vacuum' You have a *very* American perspective. But something that never existed cannot leave a vacuum. The French president has full say ver foregn policy, so Macron does not have an internal mandate for much, but he does have one for external affairs,
That’s wrong. France and Germany were the drivers of european integration to a significant extent. Jean Monet, Adenauer, Schuman ring any bells ? If not time to read some history
Which explains why whenever shit goes sideways folks won't be looking to any European Capitals, for a solution they look to the US. Major war in the Mid East? The answer ain't in London. Pirates off the Coast of Africa? No answer coming from Paris. Russia marching into eastern Europe? Don't look to Berlin. Given who my countrymen just elected, it's utterly insane how much of y'all's security has still been outsourced to the US.
Peter has been strangely quiet since his girl friend Christia Freeland got fired by Trudeu
How bout letting Brussels lead? 😂😂😂
Europe has a leadership problem since ww2. Anyway, because i'm from eastern europe, i see the lack of western europe leadership combined with the pressure of russian imperialism as a good thing for us. Why? Because maybe, just maybe we'll finally figure out that it's waaay better for us to stop looking to the west, or the east for answers and leadership and start taking stuff into our own hands by binding together. From the Nordics and Poland, to Romania, Bulgaria and possibly even Turkey...one economic and especially military alliance. For those who don't agree...what use is there for us in the current status quo? which is the same for centuries....when push comes to shove...we're nothing more than a playground for the west-east power games.
the UK had quite a strong leader during the 1980's
@@davidcoverdale722 ok, not going to contest that. I would ask how that helped eastern europe, but we were having a soviet infection at that time. Not since ww2, but at least since the 90's.
@@dagda101 Spain Italy Portugal... Together we prevail. we ALL are in this together Peter underestimate Europe because his American Bias he believes we are sitting on our hands waiting doing nothing
@@nachocano9990except, you are. You simply adopt American policy and go farther with it. Europe has been America’s vassal for a very long time. Imagine thinking you have separate ideas from Americans when you adopt all the dumb cultural trends and push them farther.
@@boblately5402 Well, mostly, American Ideas are not that bad, why not follow it? Are you in Putin´s camp, that you want an "independent" Europe, that just is anti-democratic and anti-liberalism and pro-russian and pro-chinese? No, thanks. That is not "separate ideas" i would like to have!
Can Peter solve the warhawk vacuum in legacy news?